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Post by Makers on Aug 25, 2016 5:34:17 GMT -5
 Brad PowersMissouri at West Virginia Play: Missouri +11.5 The opening week of college football is now less than two months away and while there has been some major line movements in several games (including the Georgia St/Ball State line moving 8.5 points!), there are a few teams out there still offering up some value including a Missouri team poised for a bounce back season. While the Tigers will have a new head coach roaming the sidelines for the first time in 15 years (Gary Pinkel retired at the end of last season), Barry Odom is very familiar with the school having been a LB here in the mid-90's while also serving as the DC here last year. His defense a year ago, was the lone bright spot on a team that had a disappointing 5-7 season. This year's defense could be even better thanks to the return of 8 starters including 5 of their top 6 tacklers. Their defensive line is one of the top 5 DL units in all of college football thanks to the return of all 4 starters plus the addition of 2014 star Harold Brantley who missed all of last year with injury. That defensive front was one of the big reasons why Missouri was No. 2 in the FBS last year in TFL per game. The problem with last year's team was an offense that ranked second to last averaging just 13.6 ppg and were also just No. 124 in total offense (averaging just 281 ypg). This year's offensive unit is much improved starting with QB Drew Lock who is now in his sophomore season. Lock is 6-4 and 221 lbs and has an NFL future. He will be surrounded by a pair of very talented graduate transfers in RB Alex Ross from Oklahoma and WR Chris Black from Alabama. These key transfers are getting little notice from the early markets and one of the reasons why Missouri is currently flying under the radar. On the other side, West Virginia looks better on offense this season, but do lose 9 of their top 13 tacklers on defense including four NFL draft picks (a significant loss for a program like WV). This defense could be susceptible to giving up a lot of points early in the season while the new starters adjust which leaves the back-door wide open for a much improved Missouri offense. The technicals are also in favor of the Tigers here as they are a respectable 28-16 ATS (64%) the last 10 years in non-conference action while also sporting a solid 12-5 ATS mark (71%) as an away underdog. Meanwhile, West Virginia has struggled as a home favorite under head coach Dana Holgorsen going just 9-15 ATS (37.5%). Finally, the early Noon start could see both teams slow out of the gates (favors the big dog) and my current power ratings have this line at West Virginia -8, a significant difference from the current -11.5 line which is above a couple of key numbers (10 and 11). I'd suggest a 1-unit (1-star) play on Missouri +11.5 for week 1. |
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Post by Makers on Aug 25, 2016 5:34:48 GMT -5
River City Sharps
Miami Ohio at Iowa
Play: Iowa -28
The Iowa Hawkeyes enjoyed a magical season last year, culminating in a trip to the Big 10 championship game and trip to the Rose Bowl. While their trip to Pasadena ended in a lopsided loss to Stanford, there was plenty for HC Kirk Ferentz and is Hawkeyes to celebrate. Iowa finished the season with a 12-2 mark, including a perfect 8-0 mark through their regular season Big 10 slate. The QB spot is always important, especially early in the season, and the Hawkeyes will once again look to SR CJ Beathard and WR Matt VandeBerg to generate plenty more offense for Iowa, who averaged 30.9 PPG last year. The Miami Redhawks were just 3-9 last year and a very popular “play against” for these Sharps. They do return 16 starters from last year (we’re not sure that’s a good or bad thing!) including QB Billy Bahl. We do think this year’s Miami squad will be improved over last year, but this appears to be a tough spot for the Redhawks. Miami is just 1-12 in their last 13 road openers and in the last eight of those losses, the margin of defeat has been 32 PPG. Iowa has been really good under Ferentz in the spot of a large home favorite, sporting a 13-4 ATS mark in their last 17 games when favored between 21-31 points. While we do believe Miami’s offense will be improved, let’s keep in mind that they ranked 109th in FBS offense last year and this Iowa defense is a stout bunch that will be fired up for their home opener. This one is all Hawkeyes.
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Post by Makers on Aug 25, 2016 5:35:27 GMT -5
DAVE COKIN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT KENTUCKY
PLAY: SOUTHERN MISS +7
I’m usually a little hesitant to back new head coaches out of the gate, but I think there’s enough in play here to support a play on Southern Mississippi. Jay Hopson has done well at the FCS level, and he was formerly an assistant here at Southern Miss. I also like the fact that the new OC is Shannon Dawson, who had that job at Kentucky last season. He got fired, so there’s two ways to read the situation. One is that he wasn’t any good, the other is that he didn’t have the personnel. But one thing for sure is that you know Dawson is going to be all-in to do some damage to the program that dumped him. That’s a nice intangible. USM has the best QB in CUSA in Nick Mullens, and while the offense did lose a few important pieces, I expect the Golden Eagles to still be very productive on offense. We’ll see on the defense. I don’t think it’s necessarily down from last year, but it probably isn’t any better either.
Kentucky is already having some problems.The Wildcats are already down two projected defensive starters. For a team that lost seven of its eight leading tacklers from 2015, this is a potentially big hit. I think the Wildcats could have an improved offense. Eddie Gran is the new OC and he did some great work at Cincinnati. Drew Barker was unimpressive in two starts last season, but he was a pretty highly recruited QB and I suspect he’ll do a better job this season. The strength of the Kentucky team will be its running game, especially with what is a very experienced OL to open holes.
This game looks like a tossup to me. I have these two teams very close in all three sets of power ratings I utilize. It’s an important game for both teams. Southern Miss is an upwardly mobile program that would love to knock off an SEC opponent on the road. Kentucky hasn’t been to even a minor bowl since 2010, and if Mark Stoops wants to stay off the hot seat, he needs an invite this season. That makes this almost a must win Week One game for the Wildcats. But I don’t see them being a full TD better than the Golden Eagles, and with the early attrition on defense, I see the visitors having a legit shot here. I’ll take the touchdown with Southern Mississippi.
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Post by Makers on Aug 25, 2016 5:36:04 GMT -5
Scott Spreitzer
Southern Miss at Kentucky
Play: Southern Miss +7
The Wildcats scored less than 28 points in nine of 12 games last season, topping that number only against Charlotte, Eastern Kentucky, and UL-Lafayette. Plenty of familiar faces return to the Kentucky offense in 2016 and Drew Barker will be behind center. The book is still out on the sophomore and the last time we saw Barker, he was completing just 6 of 22 passes in a loss to Louisville to close the season. The defense allowed at least 27 points on seven occasions and will have to replace seven key tacklers. Southern Miss is flying under the public radar in a dead-heat with Western Kentucky to win the C-USA according to our power ratings. New HC Jay Hopson takes over for Todd Monken who left for the NFL, but QB Nick Mullens is back and leads the best offensive backfield in the conference. Hopson will focus on the defense, which does lose three top players. The advantage: So Miss averaged nearly 7 yards per play and almost 40 ppg last season. Even with a few new faces, including a pair of new starters at OT, we believe the offense will be too strong for a vulnerable Kentucky defense.
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Post by Makers on Aug 25, 2016 5:36:25 GMT -5
No love for Pix's Cats
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Post by Makers on Aug 25, 2016 5:36:47 GMT -5
Oskeim Sports
Clemson at Auburn
Play: Auburn +7
After reaching the National Title game in 2013, Auburn has gone a disappointing 15-11 overall (7-6 last season; 2-6 in conference). Based on those pedestrian results, the Tigers are flying under-the-radar in 2016 and could be one of the most underrated teams in college football.
Head coach Gus Malzahn's offense excels with a mobile quarterback, and the Tigers finally have that in JUCO transfer John Franklin III. The East Mississippi Community College transfer (and one-time Florida State backup) has made dramatic strides according to Malzahn and offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee. "Every practice, you see him improving," Malzahn said.
Third-year sophomore Sean White and senior Jeremy Johnson are also battling Franklin III for the starting job in what coach Malzahn calls a "really good battle" between "three guys battling their guts out." While the defense only returns six starters, the hiring of new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele brings legitimacy to Auburn's stop unit. A healthy Carl Lawson headlines what will be a much-improved Auburn defense in 2016.
The Tigers are 56-19 SU in their last 75 games at Jordan-Hare Stadium, including going 9-6 ATS as home underdogs over the last ten years. With the nation's best special team's unit coached by Scott Fountain (enters his 8th season at Auburn) and led by place kicker Daniel Carlson (school-record 14 straight field goals; 49 touchbacks on 69 kickoffs), the Tigers are capable of pulling the upset.
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Post by Makers on Aug 25, 2016 5:37:55 GMT -5
Jesse Schule
Hawaii vs. Michigan
Play: Hawaii +41½
The public loves Michigan this year, and it's easy to see why. The Wolverines completely turned things around winning 10 games last season, after going just 5-7 in 2014. While Jim Harbaugh's first year as Michigan's head coach has come with plenty of fan fair, I believe this team is way overrated. It's important to keep in mind that all 10 of last year's wins came against teams that finished the season unranked. They lost at Utah, at home to Michigan State, and they were blown out at Ohio State.
The Wolverines will host the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in their season opener, and they are asked to cover an enormous number here. Despite the fact that they played their fair share of cupcakes last season, they didn't win any games by as much as 40 points. Hawaii was brutal last year, losing 10 of 13 games. Many of those losses were blowouts, but even against the likes of Ohio State and Wisconsin, the margin of defeat was less than 40 points.
They lost 38-0 at Ohio State in Week 2, and it's worth noting that Michigan didn't fair much better losing 42-13 when they traveled to Columbus. Hawaii has plenty of talent returning from last season, and this team might just be more competitive than it was a year ago.
The Warriors will get a chance to work out the kinks a week earlier when they play California in Australia. The Wolverines will not have that luxury, with a new quarterback under center in their first game of the season. Even if everything goes smoothly for Michigan, and they somehow manage to build a big early lead, expect Harbaugh to pull the starters which would likely allow Hawaii to get a back door cover.
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Post by Makers on Aug 31, 2016 12:01:04 GMT -5
Dave Cokin
Boston College +4
North Texas +10
So.Miss +7
North Carolina +3
BYU + 1.5
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tomkd
Premium Member
Posts: 313 
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Post by tomkd on Aug 31, 2016 12:48:21 GMT -5
Thanks
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Post by Makers on Aug 31, 2016 12:51:03 GMT -5
Dave Cokin
Rice +17
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Post by Makers on Sept 1, 2016 11:30:32 GMT -5
Paul Leiner
100* Browns -5
100* Braves -140
100* White Sox -120
Chase Diamond
15* Appalachian St
Ultra Sports
Baltimore Ravens +5.5
Houston Texans -3
Denver Broncos +4
Trace Adams
1500♦ Tennessee. -20.5
Brad Wilton
60 Dime Florida Int +10.5
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Post by Makers on Sept 1, 2016 11:31:22 GMT -5
Power Play Wins
Appalachian St +20.5
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Post by Makers on Sept 3, 2016 7:29:22 GMT -5
Maddux Sports
10* Ohio State +162 Win Big Ten Championship
10* West Virginia Over 7 Wins -145
2* West Virginia +1400 Win Big 12 Championship NOSE!!!!!!
Maddux Sports
10* LSU -10
Dave Cokin
Boston College +4
North Texas +10
So.Miss +7
North Carolina +3
BYU + 1.5
UCLA +3
Marc Lawrence
Miami Ohio
Wyoming
Brian Edwards
Texas A&M -3
Gold Sheet LTS
1.5 Units Houston +11.5
1 Unit Missouri +10
1 Unit Southern Miss +6.5
1 Unit Louisiana Tech +25.5
1 Unit Wisconsin +11
1 Unit Alabama -12
1 Unit Mississippi +4.5
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Post by Makers on Sept 3, 2016 7:29:54 GMT -5
Wayne Root
Pinnacle - Auburn
Inner Circle - North Carolina
Perfect Play - USC
No Limit - Wisconsin
Millionaire - Texas
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brymel2
Premium Member
Posts: 2,527
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Post by brymel2 on Sept 3, 2016 7:50:02 GMT -5
WVU to win Big XII??...well can at least say he's not riding the chalk on that one.
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