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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:14:29 GMT -5
'NFL: Defense Rules in Week One!'
The numbers show that defense is generally ahead of offense in the first week, with 'Under' prevailing as offenses works to get themselves in synch. A dive into our trusty NFL football database confirms the thought. Since the 2000 campaign, the O/U in week one is 117-135-2 with an average combined score of 41.6 points/game. The rest of September tilts the O/U is 304-291-8 with a combined score of 43.2 PPG.
The next query looking at Week-One games deemed to be high scoring, that is ones where the betting market had the O/U at =>45 the 'Under' hit at a 58.7% clip (30-44-1 O/U). What really got juices flowing in the analysis was the final query adding one more parameter which was looking for what the betting market perceived as a close contest. That is, games in which the spread was 3.5 or less. To that end the 'Under' results were a sparkling 21-6 (77.8%) with a combined 39.0 points/game.
There-in lies a lucrative 'Total System' to kick off the campaign, 'Play-Under' in any Week-one contest where the total is set at =>45 and the spread is 3.5 or less. Keep in mind, JOE Q public likes the 'Over', oddsmakers adjusts accordingly and the astute player can profit nicely going against-the-grain.
Good luck opening week with Bucs-Falcons (3.0, 47.5), Raiders-Saints (1.0, 50.5), Giants-Cowboys (3.5, 49.0) - Spreads, Totals are as of August 20, 2016
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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:15:32 GMT -5
NFL line watch: Can Patriots top total without Brady under center?
Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet now
Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1)
One-point lines aren’t all that common, but this one hasn’t budged since early-bird oddsmakers weighed in when the schedule was first announced last spring. So, any late movement is unlikely.
This looks like the Raiders’ last in the Bay Area, and they would love to make the playoffs and give their move to Las Vegas a huge tailwind. They did get some bad news when they learned that DE Mario Edwards will be lost for at least six weeks after being injured in last week’s exhibition game. Ouch.
The Saints weren’t that impressive in the preseason (losing all four), but that doesn’t mean much. New Orleans hopes to take advantage of a soft start to the season with the first four against 2016 non-playoff teams (Raiders, Falcons, Giants, Chargers). Starting 1-3 or 0-4 would be devastating.
Spread to wait on
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3)
Books are loath to move off field goal lines, but the public is betting hard on the Panthers (72 percent on Carolina) and Broncos bettors should check back often to see if a +3.5 window opens up, even for a short amount of time.
Denver will be trying to defend its Super Bowl title without a top-flight quarterback, and that’s always a tricky thing to accomplish. But that defense should keep the Broncos in most games.
No one seriously thinks the Panthers can repeat last year’s 15-1 record, but they should be able to call the shots in the NFC South and return to the playoffs.
Total to watch
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (47.5)
This one opened at 51, but fell when Tom Brady’s suspension appeal was rejected. New England will try to survive until Week 5 (when Brady is back) with a possible Top-3 defense and a no-frills offense built around tight ends Rob Gronkowski and (newcomer) Martellus Bennett.
The usual suspects for the Pats’ offense are back – uncoverable Julian Edelman and earth-moving running back LeGarrette Blount. The Pats will keep things simple early on until they have a feel for QB placeholder Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Cardinals no doubt caught a break facing a Brady-less New England squad, and will be doing everything they can to intimidate Garoppolo with a solid defense of their own. It could be hard for both teams to get into the end zone in this one.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:19:03 GMT -5
Football lines that make you go hmmm: Short road faves are undervalued
As an oddsmaker, I have to be aware of the home-field advantage, no matter what the sport. The reason? Simple. Teams win more at home than they do on the road. But there are certain situations where I think the bettor has a distinct advantage playing that angle against the percentages: road favorites with a short price.
In the NFL, there seems to be a standard of three points (give or take the situation) for the home field. A six-point differential if we switch the home team. There are four situations in Week 1 of the NFL season where I believe, just because of the “automatic” home-field advantage, the line poses a weak chance of getting two-way action for bookmakers. And that’s where bettors may be aggressive with their betting.
We’re going to look at the opening game of the season, Thursday’s Carolina at Denver, Sunday’s Cincinnati at the NY Jets and both Monday games, Pittsburgh at Washington and Los Angeles at San Francisco.
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 42)
Carolina is a solid 3-point favorite over the Denver Broncos, who lost their top two quarterbacks to retirement and free agency, and that’s how the early money found its way to the Carolina side. So, as an oddsmaker, on a neutral site, Carolina would be a 6-point favorite and as a home team and they’d giving the Broncos nine points.
My feelings for years, has been if a team is a 9-point favorite at home, that difference in talent to be at that level should carry over to wherever they’re playing. Suddenly making a large favorite, a near pick’em game never made sense. My first thoughts would be that Carolina should be at the minimum, a 6-point favorite here.
The value right now is Carolina at the -3 level. This game already smells of a closing line of -4 or higher as everyone has been hit on the revenge-minded Panthers in the past few days and I don’t see tremendous buy back for bookmakers - even when the money on game day forces this off the key number of three.
Bookmakers will be taking three or four times their limits before moving the game off -3 and by that time, they’ll be swamped with one-sided action and then suddenly, this becomes a huge game to kick of Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+2.5, 41.5)
The same goes with the Cincinnati Bengals. I believe they’re far more talented and incentivized team. Early money has moved this game from a pick’em to the current -2.5 on the road favorite, so early bettors who got the number at its lowest have great value.
The Bengals were 6-2 on the road last year and basically all bettors are asking is for this team is to win Sunday. Not that the Jets are a bad team, but this matchup clearly has a stronger, more aggressive team and the small spread should play no factor in the final score as Cincinnati is the value play in this spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (+3, 50), Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 44)
A double-dose of this comes on Monday where I truly believe both road teams are far superior to their home counterparts. Pittsburgh, sans Le'Veon Bell, is still attracting money and bookmakers are already starting to get overloaded with Steeler cash.
At -3 (minus money) already, this is about to leap to -3.5 on what should be a high-scoring shootout where the passing yards may overshadow Bell’s absence. Also, the Steelers have had plenty of time to adjust to his vacancy so it’s not like a sudden injury in which they are scrambling to replace in a week’s notice.
Yes, Kirk Cousins had an awesome year in 2015, but it’s not so hard to think he may fall back a bit this year. This is another one-way betting mess and I believe bettors will be a little ahead of the bookmakers with this line as it stands now.
The last game is a good example of how the home-field advantage is a non-factor – particularly because of who is playing. The 49ers will be lucky to win four or five games all season and this is not so much a pro-Los Angeles move as much as an anti-San Francisco play.
This game stands at L.A. -2.5 and we’re already starting to see threes dot the landscape. There’s very little hope that bookmakers will see any form of buy back on the Niners. The value is on the small road favorite at this level.
Los Angeles, the new kid on the block this year, should have no problem with this game which should be at -4 to -5 realistically. A far inferior team can’t exploit the home-field advantage if they’re just bad. San Francisco is just that bad. I only envision the public seeing this one way. Bookmakers will have a decision to sweat for sure.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:20:02 GMT -5
NFL Week 1 Opening Line Report: Cowboys seeing sharp action of re-opening as home dogs
After months of anticipation, the NFL finally returns with real games as the regular season kicks off Thursday night. At some sportsbooks, the lines on Week 1 have been up for several weeks or more, with several significant shifts in those numbers.
We talk about four key season openers with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk manager.
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos – Open: Broncos -3; Move: Broncos -1.5, Panthers -1, Panthers -3
Right from the get-go, the 2016 season gets a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos went in as 5-point underdogs in last season’s NFL title tilt and completely shut down Cam Newtown and Co. on the way to a 24-10 victory.
That marked Peyton Manning’s last game, and Brock Osweiler was expected to provide a steady transition following Manning’s retirement. But that narrative went out the window when Osweiler left for greener pastures with the Houston Texans, leading to a 180-degree swing in the line at CG’s books, including The Cosmopolitan, the M and the Venetian.
“Due to Denver’s Super Bowl win, the line opened at Broncos -3, with the assumption that Osweiler was going to start,” Simbal said. “Once the game opened (in mid-April), bets began coming in on the Panthers, and the line moved their way. Once Osweiler left, it shifted all the way to the Panthers.”
Denver went 15-4 SU and a more modest 10-8-1 ATS in 2015, while the Panthers won their first 14 games last year and finished 17-2 SU, 13-6 ATS.
Sportsbooks opening line was much tighter, at Broncos -1 as Childs gave Denver modest home-field respect while knowing quarterback could be an issue. But as with CG, that respect didn’t last for long.
“We quickly took on Panthers money, and we knew quite early that the public was going to be squarely behind the Panthers in this revenge game,” Childs said. “We quickly went to Panthers -1 and kept ticking up until just last week, when we eventually got to Panthers -3.5, our current number.”
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Cowboys -4; Move: Giants -1.5, Giants -1
This NFC East rivalry gets renewed right away with a 4:25 p.m. Eastern start on Sunday. Unfortunately, the game lost a lot of its luster and the Cowboys lost their status as home favorites when quarterback Tony Romo went down with a back injury in Week 3 of the preseason.
Romo is expected to miss at least the first six weeks of the regular season for Dallas, which went 4-12 SU and 4-11-1 ATS last year without Romo almost the entire way. He broke his collarbone in Week 2, came back at Thanksgiving and reinjured it, then missed the rest of the season.
The Giants didn’t fare much better in 2015, going 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.
“Before the Romo injury, the Cowboys were a solid 4-point favorite. But once we learned he was out, we immediately closed the game and assessed the situation,” Childs said. “While everyone is in love with Romo’s backup, Dak Prescott, he’s still a rookie and hasn’t taken a regular-season NFL snap, so we have major reservations about his ability until proven otherwise.
“With a major downgrade at quarterback, we dropped the line a full 5 points, making the Giants a small 1.5-point favorite. We’ve written good action at that price, but we booked some sharp action on the Cowboys at +1.5 and moved it down a half-point to Giants -1.”
CG experienced similar movement, though the game is now rated a toss-up.
“In Week 1 last year, the same game opened Cowboys -7,” Simbal said of a contest Dallas won 27-26 at home. “After some of the Giants’ offseason moves, and the move toward the Giants in futures, the opener here was Cowboys -4.5. After the Romo injury, it went to a pick.”
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Cardinals -1; Move: Cardinals -4, Cardinals -6
It’s another game more about who’s not playing than who is, with Tom Brady not under center for the Patriots while he serves a four-game suspension over DeflateGate. Once that decision came down in late April, the line took off in favor of the host Cardinals.
“These are both very even and popular teams, so Arizona (initially) got the slight nod of being a 1-point favorite at home,” Simbal said. “Once the Brady suspension broke, it went all the way up to 6.”
New England was 13-5 SU, 8-8-2 ATS last year, bowing out in the AFC Championship Game, a 20-18 loss to Denver as a 3-point road favorite. Arizona (14-4 SU, 9-9 ATS in 2015) reached the NFC Championship Game but got torched at Carolina 49-15 as a 3-point underdog.
Childs said Sportsbooks – which opened the Pats at -1 – took the game down even before the Brady news, based on chatter that the courts were going to uphold the suspension. After the decision came down, the game went back up with Arizona at -5.
“We saw real nice, two-way action,” Childs said. “More times than not, going from Brady to Jimmy Garoppolo would require a much bigger line move, in my opinion. But when considering Bill Belichick has had all summer to game-plan, we didn’t want to give more than 6 points to arguably the best coach in the NFL.
“That said, sharp money as well as some public money has pushed this line to 6. I believe that money represents Garoppolo’s struggles in the preseason. He flat-out didn’t look all that good.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins – Open: Steelers -3; Move: none
Both these teams made the playoffs last year, and Pittsburgh is among the shorter favorites this season to win the Super Bowl. Unlike the aforementioned three season openers, though, the line in this contest has been steady.
“The Steelers are about a touchdown better on a neutral field, so Washington got 3-4 points for being at home,” Simbal said. “The opener here of -3 was fine since there has been little movement.”
The Steelers went 11-7 SU, 9-6-3 ATS last season, bowing out in the divisional playoffs with a 23-16 loss as 7-point ‘dogs at Denver. The Redskins won a flagging NFC East with a 9-7 SU and ATS mark, then lost to Green Bay 35-18 as 2-point home chalk in the wild-card round.
Sportsbooks bounced back and forth between its opener of 3 and 3.5 a couple times, with the three-game suspension of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell weighing into a shift back to 3. But Pittsburgh continues to get the bulk of the action.
“The Bell suspension really hasn’t stopped support for the Steelers,” Childs said. “With more and more money coming in on the road favorite, we went back to 3.5 about a month ago and haven’t moved off that number.”
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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:20:56 GMT -5
Week 1 Fades - Browns, Saints
The NFL preseason has often been called “meaningless” and many pundits ignore the records in August because they rarely carry over into the regular season, especially the teams that finish unbeaten.
Dating back to the 2005 season, we’ve seen 19 teams produce an unbeaten record in the preseason which includes Kansas City’s perfect 4-0 mark last season.
The Chiefs had a solid year (11-5) and made the playoffs but that result is uncommon. Including the 2015 regular season record from Kansas City last year, the 19 teams have combined to go 141-163 (46%) straight up.
As we enter the 2016 campaign, there are four teams that finished this past preseason with 4-0 records -- Baltimore, Houston, Minnesota and Philadelphia.
While perfection in the summer hasn’t translated into consistent records year-over-year in the fall, the same can be said for teams that go winless.
Losing all of your preseason games is never a good thing and the records don’t lie.
Winless Preseason Teams (2006-2015)
Season Team Regular Season Record Playoff Result
2006 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8 -
2006 Washington Redskins 5-11 -
2007 Arizona Cardinals 8-8 -
2007 Kansas City Chiefs 4-12 -
2008 Cleveland Browns 4-12 -
2008 New England Patriots 11-5 -
2009 Arizona Cardinals 10-6 Lost in the NFC Divisional Round
2009 Carolina Panthers 8-8 -
2009 Kansas City Chiefs 4-12 -
2010 Chicago Bears 11-5 Lost in the NFC Championship
2010 Indianapolis Colts 10-6 Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2011 Atlanta Falcons 10-6 Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2011 Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 -
2011 Oakland Raiders 8-8 -
2012 Buffalo Bills 6-10 -
2012 Miami Dolphins 7-9 -
2012 New York Jets 6-10 -
2013 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8 -
2013 Atlanta Falcons 4-12 -
2014 Dallas Cowboys 12-4 Lost in the NFC Divisional Round
2014 Indianapolis Colts 11-5 Lost in the AFC Championship
2015 New Orleans Saints 7-9 -
2015 St. Louis Rams 7-9 -
In the last 10 seasons, we’ve seen 23 teams go winless in the preseason with a 0-4 record. Only seven of those teams managed to produce a winning record in the regular season and just six of them reached the playoffs.
This year’s winless group includes Cleveland and New Orleans, who both went 0-4.
While forecasting futures is fun, we dug into the numbers deeper and checked out how winless teams played in Week 1 of the season.
The results (listed below) weren’t great as the winless teams saw their struggles carry over to the opener.
Going back five seasons, winless preseason teams have produced a 4-10 record both straight up and against the spread.
Cleveland visits Philadelphia in Week 1 and is listed as a four-point underdog. The Browns have gone 1-9 in their last 10 openers and are 4-12 on the road the last two seasons.
New Orleans will be hosting Oakland in its opener as a short home favorite (-1). The Saints are 1-4 the last five seasons in Week 1.
2015 (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
New Orleans (Lost 31-19 at Arizona, +2)
St. Louis (Won 34-31 vs. Seattle, +3.5)
2014 (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Dallas (Lost 28-17 vs. San Francisco, +3.5)
Indianapolis (Lost 24-31 at Denver, +8)
2013 (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Pittsburgh (Lost 16-9 vs. Tennessee, -6)
Atlanta (Lost 23-17 at New Orleans, +3.5)
2012 (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
N.Y. Jets (Won 48-28 vs. Buffalo -3)
Buffalo (Lost 28-48 at N.Y. Jets +3)
Miami (Lost 30-10 at Houston +13)
2011 (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Oakland (Won 23-20 at Denver, +3)
Kansas City (Lost 41-7 vs. Buffalo, +3.5)
Atlanta (Lost 30-12 at Chicago, +1)
2010 (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Indianapolis (Lost 34-24 at Houston -1.5)
Chicago (Won 19-14 vs. Detroit -6.5)
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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:21:27 GMT -5
Week 1 NFL
Thursday
Carolina @ Denver– Super Bowl winners are 7-3-3 vs spread in Week 1 the following year; Super Bowl losers are 2-11 vs spread in season openers the following year. Broncos do look lot different, with Siemian at QB; they’re 15-1 SU in last 16 home openers, 18-8-1 vs spread in last 27, 5-3 vs spread in last eight season openers. Since ’12, Carolina is 5-9 vs spread as a road favorite; they lost 34-0/20-17 in only visits here, with last one in ’04- they’ve lost four of five overall vs Broncos. Panthers won last two road openers; they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 road openers, with three of last four staying under total. Denver is 5-7 vs spread as home underdog since 2010. This is the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970
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tomkd
Premium Member
Posts: 313 
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Post by tomkd on Sept 6, 2016 15:30:02 GMT -5
Good stuff, thanks!
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Post by Gooba on Sept 7, 2016 6:38:37 GMT -5
2016 NFL KICK-OFF
The 2016 campaign begins with a Super Bowl rematch between Broncos and Panthers at Sports Authority Field in Denver. Carolina looking to erase the bad taste of a disappointing loss to Denver in Super Bowl 50 along with a seasoned QB leading the troops vs a Bronco squad guided by Trevor Siemian who has never taken a regular-season snap, the current line offered has Panthers -3.0 point road favorites with the total set at 41.5.
If history has anything to say about this matchup it won't be a cake walk for Panthers. Since 2000 Super Bowl Runner-Ups are extremely vulnerable in season opener's posting a money-burning 2-14 record against the betting line including a cash draining 1-6 as road chalk.
Another interesting betting nugget to keep in mind. In each of the past ten season openers taking place Thursday night in front of the home audience of the reigning Champion, the Super Bowl Winner has a perfect 10-0 SU record with a money-making 7-2-1 record at the betting window. (note: in 2013 Ravens had to opened in Denver due to a conflict with Baltimore Orioles and in 2012 Giants opened the season on a rare Wednesday night to avoid sharing viewing audiences with the nationally televised presidential debate.)
Clearly there are many other factors to evaluate in determining NFL point spread success. However it's hard to argue the edge a reigning Champion has playing a Thursday night season opener in front of the friendly crowd.
Best of luck this season, but above all enjoy the games
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Post by Gooba on Sept 7, 2016 6:39:25 GMT -5
Thin Mile High air gives Broncos an early-season edge in home openers
Sports Authority Field at Mile High isn’t just a catchy name. The home of the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos actually sits 5,280 feet above sea level – exactly one mile into the sky. Gotta respect the attention to detail.
You should also respect the Broncos’ built-in home-field advantage at Sports Authority Field, especially early into the NFL season. The thin air at that altitude has long plagued visiting teams, with that energy-draining effect amplified in Denver’s opening home games of the schedule.
Heading into Thursday’s Super Bowl rematch between the host Broncos and the Carolina Panthers, Denver boasts an incredible 27-4 SU mark and has gone 19-12 ATS in those contests, covering the spread more than 61 percent of the time. Since 2000, the Broncos have lost their home opener just once (2011 Week 1) and have failed to cover the spread only four times, with a 10-4-2 ATS record (71.4%).
“There's no question that playing in that Mile High altitude effects visiting teams and I believe it's even more impactful early in the season,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management, tells us. “There isn't a team out there in all the NFL that is in game shape - flat out nobody's played a game. A few have played a half of football in Week 3 of the preseason, but even then that's just preseason and lacks the intensity of a regular season game.”
The Broncos have won with ease in their home openers, outscoring opponents 28.8 ppg to 18.9 ppg versus an average spread of -5 since 1985. Last season, Denver defeated the Baltimore Ravens 19-13 as 4.5-point home chalk in Week 1 of the schedule. The Broncos defense shutout the Ravens in the fourth quarter to secure the win.
“I'm not saying these athletes and teams are not in shape, but there's no substituting for being in 'game shape' and that takes a few weeks,” Childs says. “I fully believe the Broncos’ early-season success at home is directly correlated to teams not being as in shape as they are later on in the season.”
Sportsbooks are currently dealing the Broncos as 3-point home underdogs, after the home side opened as a slight favorite and was bet down due to issues at quarterback. Peyton Manning retired following his Super Bowl 50 victory and free agent QB Brock Osweiler signed with the Houston Texans in the offseason. That has forced Denver to give the starting nod to inexperienced Trevor Siemian, who has never thrown a pass in a regular season game.
Denver has been a betting underdog in its home opener just once before in the past 31 years, winning 23-16 as a 3-point pup hosting the St. Louis Rams in Week 1 of the 2002 campaign.
The Broncos will be leaning hard on their defense to once again be the difference maker in 2016, but with that said, Denver has trended toward the Over in home openers. The team has posted a 20-11 Over/Under mark since 1985 (64.5% Over) with an average total of 47.8 points scored against an average closing total of 43.4.
The betting total for Thursday’s season kickoff opened at 43 points and is down to 41.5 as of Tuesday. The Broncos and Panthers played Under the 43-point total in Super Bowl 50, with Denver winning 24-10.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 7, 2016 6:40:44 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
NFL*|*CINCINNATI*at*NY JETS
Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game, in conference games
28-8*over the last 10 seasons.**(*77.8%*|*19.2 units*)
NFL*|*NY GIANTS*at*DALLAS
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (NY GIANTS) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing against a terrible team last year (<=25%)
33-17*since 1997.**(*66.0%*|*0.0 units*)
NFL*|*LA RAMS*at*SAN FRANCISCO
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games
27-7*over the last 5 seasons.**(*79.4%*|*19.3 units*)
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Post by Gooba on Sept 8, 2016 5:56:22 GMT -5
NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1
By MONTY ANDREWS
Each week, Monty Andrew breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 44.5)
Chargers' awful run D vs. Chiefs’ sensational rush attack
It’s a passing league, they say. The game is now all about quarterbacks and wideouts, or tight ends, or running backs who can catch the ball. Run-first approach? That’s so 2012. But apparently, nobody told the Kansas City Chiefs, who will run out the same philosophy they’ve used to decent success for years - smash the opposing defensive line into tiny pieces with a potent running attack.
Here’s why that should work to perfection this weekend: the Chargers are bad at defending the run. Downright miserable, in fact. Last season, San Diego allowed a whopping 4.8 yards per carry (second-worst in the NFL) and 17 touchdowns on the ground (fourth-most in the league). They were particularly susceptible to the big play, allowing 21 runs of 20 or more yards. And they forced just seven fumbles.
Contrast that with a Chiefs run attack that ranked third in the NFL in yards per carry (4.7), sixth in rushing yards per game (127.8), tied for first in rushing scores (19) and first in “rushing for a first down” percentage (26.6) and the Chargers are going to be in for a long day. That’s especially true if KC pounds the ball up the middle; the Chiefs had just seven negative runs and 19 carries of 10+ yards on center rushes in 2015, ranking among the league leaders in both categories.
Daily fantasy watch: RB Spencer Ware
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 46)
Giants’ up-tempo offense vs. Cowboys’ depleted defense
Occasionally, you can trust the previous year’s results sufficiently to make a judgment call the following season. And sometimes, you can take last year’s data and toss it in the nearest trash can. Bettors leaning toward the Giants shouldn’t just consider the potential dumpster fire facing the Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott - they should also acknowledge that the Dallas defense is a wet paper towel.
“But Monty!” you cry out. “The Cowboys OWNED Eli Manning last year!” And you would be right - but this Dallas defense is far different from the one that made Manning look like an insurance salesman masquerading as a quarterback. No Randy Gregory. No DeMarcus Lawrence. No Rolando McClain. This Cowboys defense was expected to be subpar even with a full complement. Now? It’s going to have major issues keeping the Giants off the scoreboard.
Of particular concern is the Dallas pass rush, which generated just 31 sacks last season - tied for 25th league-wide - and forced only eight INTs, also ranking near the basement. And again, that was with better personnel than the Cowboys will boast in Week 1. Manning will have all the time in the world to set up, and with electrifying receivers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard to throw to, it could be a very, very big day for Peyton’s little brother.
Daily fantasy watch: QB Eli Manning
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 44)
Dolphins’ bad starting position vs. Seahawks’ LOS dominance
Football is a game of field position; if you consistently start your drives 75-80 yards from the end zone, you’re going to have a difficult time scoring points. The Miami Dolphins know this well - they had one of the worst average drive start positions in the league last season, and will open the 2016 campaign against a Seahawks team that held foes to the worst starting position in the NFL in 2015.
Per Football Outsiders, Miami ranked 27th in average starting point last season (25.54). That was compounded by terrible showings in average plays per drive (5.37, 30th), average time of possession per drive (2:22, 29th) and Drive Success Rate, which measures how often a team achieves a first down or a touchdown on a specific drive (.661, 29th). The result: A pitiful 1.54 points per drive, good for 28th in the NFL.
The Seahawks’ defense ain’t what she used to be, but it’s still one of the most formidable units in the league. Teams facing Seattle had an average starting position of 23.61, a tenth of a yard better than second-place New England. Forcing teams to start that deep means plenty of forgiveness with regard to drive length; even though teams managed 5.81 plays per drive against the Seahawks - good for 15th - their combined DSR of .658 was sixth-lowest. Look for a lot of fruitless drives by the Dolphins this Sunday.
Daily fantasy watch: Seahawks D/ST
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 47.5)
Patriots’ receiving corps vs. Cardinals’ 1-2 DB punch
Bettors have plenty of reasons to expect Arizona to prevail by more than a touchdown, but we’re not here to address all of them. The focus here is on the major disadvantage New England’s primary wide receivers will face against what might be the most daunting defensive back combo in the entire league. Welcome to the NFL, Jimmy Garoppolo! Remember, there’s no shame in starting your career 0-1.
Let’s start with the backfield, since everyone knows Bill Belichick loves to get his receiving backs involved. Arizona employs a blitz-heavy approach that negates the impact of those receiving backs, since they’re forced to pass block more. Teams threw to their RBs just over 16 percent of the time against Arizona last season, second-lowest in the NFL. Sorry, James White, but Sunday probably isn’t your day.
As for the rest of the non-Gronkowski targets, you might as well forget about them. Only six defenses saw more passes against thrown to WR1s than the Cardinals, thanks to stalwart cornerback Patrick Peterson. He grades at an 87.9 on ProFootballFocus, making him one of the top all-round cornerbacks in the game. And let’s not forget Tyrann Mathieu, a Swiss Army knife of a safety whose 94.1 PFF grade is the best in the league at his position. He’ll likely match up with Julian Edelman, which means a really long day for Julian Edelman.
Daily fantasy watch: Cardinals D/ST
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Post by Gooba on Sept 8, 2016 5:56:55 GMT -5
Week 1 NFL Underdogs
Week 1 of the NFL season is officially upon us and as a new weekly feature here, we'll be discussing some of the best underdog ML options on the card each week. Any underdog getting 4 points or more will be considered as NFL bettors everywhere look to add a few more units to their bankrolls each week with a sizable underdog ML score.
Week 1 NFL Underdogs that Qualify
San Diego Chargers (+7); ML: (+240)
Chicago Bears (+6.5); ML: (+220)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5); ML: (+195)
Miami Dolphins (+10.5); ML: (+400)
New England Patriots (+6); ML: (+200)
Right off the bat it's hard to give too much credence to a ML wager on the Miami Dolphins as the biggest dog on the board as they've got arguably the toughest hurdle to overcome. On the road in Seattle in Week 1 is not the most ideal situation to start off a season and while the +400 payout would be nice, there is a solid chance that a ticket there is nothing more than a pipe dream.
Jacksonville is the only home team on this list as they welcome the Green Bay Packers into town. Green Bay has been considered as one of the Super Bowl favorites all summer (along with Seattle) and many expect them to cruise to another division title in the NFC North. Many also expect the Jaguars to be a much improved team this year and could fight for a playoff spot, but +195 seems just a tad too low to seriously consider a ML bet. This game is likely going to be one of the most one-sided bets on the board with plenty of Packers tickets ATS written, so if you are a believer in being “on the books side,” then a Jags ML wager would be something to consider.
New England ML bets at +200 will definitely see some support even with Jimmy Garoppolo starting, because the reputation of Belichick and the Patriots always garners respect. But Arizona is considered one of the Super Bowl favorites as well and their defense will throw so many different looks at Garoppolo that it will be tough sledding for New England in Week 1. The Patriots do have a chance to shock many though and start the year 1-0 SU, so if you were already considering a Patriots ML bet, I wouldn't shy away from it.
However, the best underdog outright option on this list in my opinion has to be the San Diego Chargers at +240. This wager comes for multiple reasons as the Chiefs could still be without RB Jamaal Charles and are a little overhyped by many this summer. Andy Reid and KC aren't going to be as good or dominant as many expect them to be in 2016, and this spread is much too high here. Throw in the +240 price tag and the Chargers are definitely a live dog.
QB Philip Rivers knows the fate of the Chargers largely rests on his shoulders this year, but WR Keenan Allen is poised to breakout and become an elite WR in this league, and RB Melvin Gordon will be much better than what we saw from him in the 2015 campaign. Rivers is tired of losing to this division rival as they've lost four straight to KC, but last year's game in Arrowhead was a close 10-3 game that the Chargers easily covered as +11.5 underdogs and this year in Week 1 they get over the hump.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 8, 2016 5:58:16 GMT -5
SNF - Patriots at Cardinals
By Micah Roberts
Only six teams have season win totals posted at 10 wins or more and Sunday night's matchup features two of them as the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots visit the Arizona Cardinals in the most interesting, and maybe most important, game of Week 1 action.
Both teams made the final four last season and both come in this year as conference favorites to make the Super Bowl.
Some of the pressing questions that will be answered is whether or not backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo can prove to be an adequate replacement as Brady serves his ridiculous four-game Deflategate suspension.
Also, can the Cardinals regroup after its no. 1 ranked offense got blown out in the NFC title game at Carolina?
Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 10 (Over -170)
Odds to win NFC West: 6/5
Odds to win NFC: 4/1 (co-favorite)
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1
New England Patriots
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -120)
Odds to win AFC East: 4/9
Odds to win AFC: 11/4 (favorite)
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6/1 (favorite)
LINE MOVEMENT
When the Westgate SuperBook opened Week 1 numbers April 20, this was a pick 'em game showing that their early ratings on a neutral field with Brady starting had the Patriots 3-points better than the Cardinals. Within five days, bettors didn't think so and slightly pushed Arizona to -1, albeit with just a $5,000 limit at the time.
Shortly after, news broke that Brady's petition would be denied and the four-game suspension would stand. The Westgate reposted the number July 13 with Arizona installed as a 5.5-point favorite and on Sept. 2 it was pushed up -6. Through the same process, the total has also been adjusted down from an opener of 51 in April all the way down to 47.
BRADY EFFECT
Just how important is Tom Brady to the number? It's relative to who the back-up is, and apparently Garoppolo has some respect from Las Vegas even though he's never started a game and made only 31 attempts in two seasons since picked in the second round of the 2014 draft out of Eastern Illinois.
Aaron Rodgers is considered the most important player in the league worth up to 8-points in some oddsmakers minds, and his back-ups have proven to be disastrous when forced to pilot Green Bay's scheme. The initial reaction to the ratings by the Westgate is that Brady is worth 5.5-points, in part because the Bill Belichick way of doing things annually using interchangeable parts.
Remember, Matt Cassell went 11-4 when Brady got hurt in 2008. The Westgate also didn't budge much with the future odds, despite Brady missing the first four games. They're still favored to win the AFC East, AFC and Super Bowl, meaning they're still expecting the Patriots to get home field in the playoffs.
HONEY BADGER RETURNS
Tyrann Mathieu was the heart and soul of a Cardinals defense that helped the team get to a 13-2 start, including winning in his last eight starts. Late in the 15th game at Philadelphia, where he recorded his fifth interception of the season, he tore his ACL for the second time in his career and his season was over. While the injury wasn't reflected much in Arizona's rating, the defense's level of play the next three games without him was evident.
Arizona would go on to lose 36-6 at home to Seattle in Week 17, need overtime to beat the Packers 26-20 in the divisional playoff and then get embarrassed 49-15 in the NFC title game at Carolina. They didn't cover the number in any of those games, either.
He didn't play any pre-season games as precaution, but he's completely healthy and expected to be on the field for every defensive play against the Patriots. There aren't many defensive players that have an effect on a spread, but Mathieu's all-purpose ability make him the Cardinals most important defensive player.
NEW DEFENSIVE FORCE IN ARIZONA
Chandler Jones had 12.5 sacks in 15 regular season games for the Patriots last season, but New England decided to trade him to Arizona in March for offensive line help in Jonathan Cooper and the Cards second-round pick. Arizona's sack leader last season was Dwight Freeney with eight in 11 games. The trade immediately upgrades the Cards' defense that was No. 20 in the league last year with 36 sacks.
While Arizona got better, the Pats defense is downgraded, especially since Rob Ninkovich is suspended for the first four games for using a banned substance. Arizona also may have got one of the steals of the draft with speedy defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche out of Ole Miss.
RECENT MEETINGS (New England 5-1 both SU & ATS last six)
9/16/12 - Arizona 20-18 at New England (NE -13, 47)
12/21/08 - Arizona at New England 47-7 (NE -9, 43.5)
9/19/04 - New England 23-12 at Arizona (NE -7.5, 41.5)
PATS RECENT ROAD WOES
The Patriots have lost their last their last three road games outright as favorites (-3 at DEN, -10 at MIA, -2.5 at NYJ). The Week 16 and 17 losses last season cost them home field for the playoffs which forced them to eventually play in Denver for the AFC Championship game, where they barely lost, 20-18.
Despite playing well below their rating going 4-6-2 ATS in their final 12 regular season games, the Patriots had the top Las Vegas rating -- just slightly above the Cardinals -- heading into the playoffs.
PATRIOTS AS A DOG
New England was an underdog only once last season, +2 at Buffalo, and won 40-32. Over the past three seasons the Pats are 6-1 both SU and ATS in the seven games where they got points and the total also has gone 'over' in six of those games. However, none were without Brady starting.
2015 ARIZONA-TO-OVER PARLAY
Arizona has stayed 'under' the total in six of its last eight games, but if you blindly played an Arizona-Over parlay for $100 every week of the 2015 regular season you would have come out $920 ahead as it cashed seven times. The Cardinals' top-ranked offense came out of the gate swinging early going 'over' the total in their first five games and covering four of them.
ROBERTS' PARLAY ADVICE
Most parlays aren't recommended because that is how the sports books make all their money, but a case can be made for playing the two-team 13-to-5 parlay (Bet $100 to win $260) because it actually offers true odds unlike the rest of the payouts on the books' parlay chart.
The side-to-total two-team parlay of the same game offers even more value because you're not dealing with outcomes in two different games. If you've handicapped a side you like well, then you probably have an idea how the flow of the game will be. If one thing happens, the other is more likely. And if you're wrong about the side, the parlay is dead anyways.
As an example, last season the Minnesota-to-Under parlay cashed in 11 of their 17 games.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 2 has the Patriots 5.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins and the Cardinals -8.5 at home against the Buccaneers.
The Patriots number could move by as much as 1.5-point each way when re-posted Monday morning depending on how Garoppolo looks against the Cardinals.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 8, 2016 5:58:53 GMT -5
2016 MVP Odds lean QBs
Is This the Year a Receiver Finally Wins NFL MVP?
There can be no argument that the NFL is the most pass-happy league than it has ever been (so is college football). Having a game-breaking receiver is now generally more important than having a top tailback. Those top receivers are certainly valued a lot more in free agency and the draft than running backs are.
So that begs the question: Will 2016 finally be the year a receiver wins the Associated Press NFL MVP Award? Odds don't give that much of a shot of happening.
Predictably, quarterbacks are the top six favorites: Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (+500), a two-time MVP, Carolina's Cam Newton (+600), last year's winner, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger (+700), Indianapolis' Andrew Luck (+800), Seattle's Russell Wilson (+900) and Arizona's Carson Palmer (+1000).
A quarterback has won the award in each of the past nine years but 2012 when Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson beat out now-retired Peyton Manning thanks to Peterson nearly breaking the single-season rushing record.
But how is it possible a receiver has yet to win the MVP?
A kicker -- Washington's Mark Moseley in the strike-shortened 1982 campaign when he was 20-for-21 on field goals with a couple of game-winners but also missed three extra-points -- even has.
Hall of Famer Jerry Rice, arguably the best pro football player to ever live, had some huge seasons. His best was likely in 1985 when Rice caught 122 passes for 1,848 yards and 15 touchdowns. But he was distant second that year to Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre in the MVP voting.
New England's Randy Moss broke Rice's record for TD catches in a season with 23 in 2007 when the Patriots were unbeaten in the regular season. Moss had 98 catches for 1,493 yards but he didn't get any MVP love. Teammate and QB Tom Brady won it. Detroit's Calvin Johnson, who retired after last season, caught 122 passes for an NFL-record 1,964 yards and had five TDs in 2012 but he wasn't an MVP consideration that year.
The receiver with the shortest MVP odds is actually a tight end: New England's Rob Gronkowski at +2500. It seems unlikely a tight end would ever win the award over a receiver, although Gronk might go down as the best receiving tight end in NFL history.
Most NFL fans would likely agree the top two receivers in football right now are Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown and Atlanta's Julio Jones, but they are both +5000 long shots. They each caught an NFL-high 136 passes last year, the second-most all-time behind Marvin Harrison's 143 in 2002 with Indianapolis. Jones also led the league with 1,871 yards, second-most to Johnson's record. Brown is +350 to top the NFL in yards this year with Jones at +450. Brown is also a -140 favorite head-to-head in yardage over Jones (+110).
To lead the NFL in touchdowns (rushing or receiving), Brown is +1100 and Jones +2500. There was an unlikely four-way tie for the TD leaders in 2015 with 14: Seattle receiver Doug Baldwin (+4000 this year), Jets receiver Brandon Marshall (+2200), Jacksonville receiver Allen Robinson (+2200) and Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman (+1200). The 14 touchdowns were the fewest for an NFL leader since Raiders running back Marcus Allen had 14 in the strike-shortened 1982 season. A running back won the title every year from 2008-14.
Arizona tailback David Johnson is the +500 favorite this year on the touchdowns prop followed by Rams running back Todd Gurley (+650). Johnson is priced at -165 for a head-to-head touchdown prop vs. Gurley. Johnson had 12 scores last year, eight rushing and four receiving. Gurley had 10 scores, all rushing. Certainly the Arizona offense should be far superior to Los Angeles' overall in 2015
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Post by Gooba on Sept 9, 2016 5:44:04 GMT -5
32 essential betting notes for 32 NFL teams in 2016
It's been a wild offseason in the National Football league. Since the Denver Broncos hoisted the Lombardi Trophy on February 7, 2016 at Super Bowl 50 we've been treated to retirements, coaching changes, injuries, quarterback changes, suspensions, and much more. Consider this your refresher course before digging back in to betting on NFL football.
Here are 32 betting notes for 32 NFL teams:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (2015: 8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS)
The Bills have had only one winning season since 2004, and they haven’t made the playoffs since 1999. Over the last 18 years, Buffalo has had eight different head coaches. The biggest issue surrounding the Bills is on the offensive side of the ball. Buffalo’s offense has ranked 22nd and worse in points scored in 11 of the last 12 seasons.
Miami Dolphins (2015: 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS)
The Dolphins’ wins came against the dregs of the league last season. Seven of Miami’s 10 losses in 2015 came by 10 points or more and since its roster is weaker than in year’s past, this may be a long 2016 for the Dolphins. Miami has only made the playoffs twice over the last 15 seasons with its last appearance coming in 2008. That streak will remain intact in 2016.
New England Patriots (2015: 12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)
New England has won 10 or more games in 13 consecutive years. The Patriots have also won the AFC East title seven straight years, and in 12 of the last 13 years overall. New England has been the best team in the NFL for the last decade plus, and it’s not even debatable. The Patriots come into this season off an AFC Championship loss to Denver, so the team has plenty of motivation for 2016. As long as Bill Belichick is the coach and Tom Brady is the quarterback, the Patriots are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, even if its only for 12 games.
New York Jets (2015: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)
As it was before Todd Bowles, New York’s offense is the biggest issue for the Jets. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had a terrific season, but it’s hard to imagine him duplicating those results in 2016. New York’s schedule will also be much tougher this season, so the team must improve greatly in multiple areas if they want to come close to double-digit wins again.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (2015: 5-11 SU, 5-9-2 ATS)
The Ravens have some concerns on offense heading into 2016. Quarterback Joe Flacco is coming off an ACL injury, so it’s unknown if he’ll return to his previous form. Baltimore only averaged 20 points and 359 yards per game last season and scored less than that average in seven games. Marc Trestman’s first year as Baltimore’s offensive coordinator was a major disappointment and unless he rights the ship, the Ravens will have another losing season in 2016.
Cincinnati Bengals (2015: 12-4 SU, 12-3-1 ATS)
The Bengals have been a very good regular season team over the last five years. However, they failed to show up in their playoff game once again, and lost 18-16 in Pittsburgh. That’s five straight playoff losses in which Cincinnati scored 16 points or less. As of now, QB Andy Dalton has the "can’t win the big game" label, and that moniker is well deserved. The coaching seems stale with Marvin Lewis and a new voice may be what the Bengals need to get over the hump.
Cleveland Browns (2015: 3-13 SU, 5-10-1 ATS)
Cleveland’s regression in 2015 was expected. In 2014, the Browns went 7-9 after opening the season with a 7-4 record. Cleveland was not as good as a seven-win team, and it figured to decline last season. The Browns will be led by new head coach Hue Jackson who brings an offensive mentality to the team after being a successful coordinator in the league. Cleveland has very low expectations for good reason, but it may surprise an opponent or two in 2016.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2015: 10-6 SU, 8-6-2 ATS)
The Steelers are an old and aging team with a defense that overachieved in 2015. Pittsburgh only allowed 20 points and 356 yards per game, but don’t expect a repeat of that in 2016. Pittsburgh won five games by seven points or less, including two wins when its defense gave up 35 and 27 points.
AFC South
Houston Texans (2015: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS)
The Texans’ biggest concern once again is the quarterback position. Houston signed Brock Osweiller from Denver, and O’Brien’s success with quarterbacks cannot be underestimated. But Osweiller is still relatively inexperienced, and learning a new offense can take time. Houston went 0-8 SU when their defense gave up 21 points or more last season, so that is a key stat to keep an eye on in 2016.
Indianapolis Colts (2015: 8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS)
The Colts’ defense certainly needs to improve upon their 25 points per game allowed from last season. Indianapolis actually gave up more points than their average in seven games; they went 1-6 SU in those games with the lone win coming by just 2 points against a poor Tennessee team. Indianapolis also tends to win a lot of close games, and in fact, seven of their eight wins last season came by seven points or less.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2015: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS)
The Jaguars won 5 games in 2015, but they are set to breakout in 2016. Quarterback Blake Bortles will lead a potent Jacksonville offense that improved by a full touchdown per game (16 to 23 points per game) last season. Jacksonville has a young roster, and head coach Gus Bradley’s fourth season should be the best for the Jaguars in quite some time.
Tennessee Titans (2015: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS)
Tennessee drafted quarterback Marcus Mariota prior to the 2015 season in hopes he would be their franchise player. Mariota was spectacular in Week 1 against the Buccaneers last year, and he set franchise records for most touchdowns (19), completions (230), and passing yards (2,818) despite missing four games with knee injuries. Mariota will now play with more experience, and the addition of proven running back DeMarco Murray should make the Tennessee offense more balanced and unpredictable.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (2015: 12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)
They have a dominating defense that won the Super Bowl last season. The Broncos ranked 1st in the league in yards allowed (283) and passing yards allowed (200) per game last year. They also had the third best rush defense (83 yards per game). A rare situation where the defending Super Bowl champion enters the season with something to prove as an underdog. They have no experience at quarterback. Denver cut veteran QB Mark Sanchez which means they enter the season with two quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, who have never started a regular season game.
Kansas City Chiefs (2015: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS)
They went 5-1 SU versus division opponents last season. Kansas City out-scored all opponents by +7.4 points per game (25.3-17.9) which was one of the best margins in the league. They are deep at running back and finished 6th in the NFL last year with 128 rushing yards per game. The defense finished 3rd overall in points allowed (17.9 ppg). They have a tough non-conference schedule of opponents which includes road trips to Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Carolina and Atlanta.
Oakland Raiders (2015: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS)
The team is on the rise with second year head coach Jack Del Rio. They also have one of the best young quarterbacks in the league with Derek Carr who made huge improvements in his second season last year with a 91.1 QB rating and 32/13 touchdown/interception ratio. While their passing offense was strong last year, their rushing attack was weak, averaging just 91 yards per game which ranked 28th overall in the NFL. Pass defense was also an issue, allowing 259 yards per game which ranked 26th in the league. The Raiders have not made the playoffs or had a winning season since 2002.
San Diego Chargers (2015: 4-12 SU, 8-8 ATS)
They were better than a 4-win team last season as they lost several close games. In fact, San Diego was just 3-7 SU in games decided by 7 points or less. In a quarterback driven league, the Chargers still have one of the best signal callers with Philip Rivers who had a solid 93.8 QB rating and 29/13 TD/INT ratio last year. Defense remains a concern, especially the rush defense which ranked 27th in the NFL and allowed 125 yards per game last season, after allowing 124 rushing yards in 2014 (ranked 26th). The rushing offense is also a concern, averaging just 85 yards per game the past two years, ranking 31st in the NFL last season and 30th the year before.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (2015: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS)
Dallas went 1-11 without Romo last year and he's hurt again, so there’s not much that can be done. The 4-12 finish was the worst season for the Cowboys since 1989. This time it will be roookie sensation Dak Prescott who will try and keep the ship afloat in Romo's absence. The offense has the ability to be one of the best with strong QB play. The defense has issues up front with the pass rush and the secondary is far from strong. The schedule strength is based on results from last season and the majority of the teams the Cowboys face outside of the division should be better. They could have a tougher time than some may think.
New York Giants (2015: 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)
While those free agency signings on defense were big news, the Giants were dead last in total defense a season ago, so how much they can improve the stop unit remains to be seen. The offense is solid but it is not good enough to outscore opponents on a weekly basis, especially with a shaky offensive line. New York has not won 10 games since 2010 and despite playing in a relatively weak division and having an easy schedule on paper, it will not come easy. Like the Cowboys, the majority of non-division games are against improving teams.
Philadelphia Eagles (2015: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
The future is not now for the Eagles. Carson Wentz will start in Week 1 if he's healthy after Sam Bradford was traded to Minnesota. So it could get a little rocky in the City of Brotherly love. As bad as the defense was last year, it may actually end up being better than the offense this season. The Eagles, unlike what the other teams did in the division, did not reload for the present so it looks more and more like a rebuilding situation in Philadelphia at least for one season.
Washington (2015: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS)
While Washington looked good at times last year, most of that was in a 4-0 finish to the regular season where wins came against teams whose seasons were already done. The Redskins kind of backed into the division title because nobody wanted it so last year may have just been an aberration. They will have to ride Cousins’ arm once again and while signing Norman was big, the Redskins still possessed the No. 28 total defense in the NFL. The division is weak but Washington will not be sneaking up on anyone this year.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears (2015: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS)
Chicago lost Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, but it had one of the best drafts in the NFL while also having the best free agency in the NFC. Injuries played a big factor in the struggles last season. Only four players started all 16 games, so the unfortunate luck there should turn around. Additionally, the Bears will have Kevin White, who missed all of last season, paired up with Alshon Jeffrey to give Jay Cutler two solid weapons outside. The Bears defense was awful last year but John Fox is in his second season and should have the defense in a better spot.
Detroit Lions (2015: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS
The loss of Calvin Johnson can’ be understated as he was almost uncoverable at times, so the offense has to take a step down. Matthew Stafford is considered by some to be one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL but he is just 42-51 as a starter and that could be much worse if he didn’t have Johnson to throw to. The fact that Ameer Abdullah is the No. 1 running back is not going to scare many defenses and, while an upgrade to their own defensive line was a positive, the stop unit allowed 25 ppg last season and a huge improvement from that is a must.
Green Bay Packers (2015: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS)
Despite making the playoffs for a seventh straight season, it was considered a disappointment for the Packers. They were Super Bowl contenders coming in but an injury to wide receiver Jordy Nelson really hurt the offense and they never got on track. Green Bay will be a highly motivated team after not winning the NFC North for the first time since 2010 which was the year it won the Super Bowl. The schedule is ranked as the easiest in the entire league which seems almost unfair with the Cheeseheads as one of the strongest teams in the NFL on an annual basis.
Minnesota Vikings (2015: 11-5 SU, 13-3 ATS)
Adrian Peterson is not getting any younger and now throw Ssam Bradford into the mix. The defense was fifth in points allowed but No. 13 in total defense, including No. 17 in rushing defense. Nine of the Vikings’ 11 wins last season came against non-playoff teams and for a team that went 13-3 against the spread, a regression is an almost guarantee. A hangover from that brutal playoff loss to Seattle is more than possible.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (2015: 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS)
It is hard to gauge which Atlanta team we will see this season, the one that started 5-0 and also defeated Carolina, or the one that finished 2-7 in their last nine games. To their credit, five of those last seven losses came by four points or less but at the same time, the Falcons have to learn how to close games and that could take time. The offense scored the fewest amount of points in the eight years with Matt Ryan at quarterback and overall Atlanta was No. 27 in turnover margin. While the defense showed improvement, it is still rated near the bottom of the league.
Carolina Panthers (2015: 15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS)
Motivation goes a long way in the NFL and Carolina has some unfinished business after losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl. Winning 15 games again will be a stretch but it is very interesting to note that the last eight Super Bowl losers went on to win at least 10 games in the following season. Cam Newton was a consistent machine and the offense should be even stronger this year with the return of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The Panthers will not be sneaking up on anyone this season but they have the talent to make another big run.
New Orleans Saints (2015: 7-9 SU, 8-7- ATS)
The Saints have gone 7-9 in three of the last four seasons which is shocking with the talent they have had on offense. Expectations have been high almost every year but that is not the case this season as linesmakers have set their total at seven wins, the least amount since 2005. That gives New Orleans some value this season as the offense will be plenty good again but the defense will have to improve quite a bit to give it a chance as closing the gap on Carolina. The last time the Saints had back-to-back seasons of eight or fewer wins, they went 13-3 in 2009 and won the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2015: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS)
Five of the Buccaneers six wins last season came by a touchdown or less while six losses were by double-digits so there is still a lot of ground to make up to play more consistent. The defense was the problem so it was a little surprising they let Lovie Smith go as he is a defense guy and replacing him with an offense guy. Tampa Bay did hire Mike Smith as the defensive coordinator but his defenses in Atlanta were 24th or worse in his last three seasons there. The Buccaneers were seventh to last in points allowed so they will need a drastic improvement.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (2015: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)
Despite finishing three games behind the Cardinals, oddsmakers like the Seahawks to rebound and they are still one of the most talented teams in NFL. The defensive line is stout while on offense, Russell Wilson is one of the top quarterbacks in the league. Seattle started to open up the offense after a while and it paid off and just as Jimmy Graham started to get comfortable, he was lost for the season. If he comes back close to 100 percent, they will be dangerous. Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael and both solid backs to replace Marshawn Lynch.
Arizona Cardinals (2015: 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS)
Arizona won the division for the first time since 2009 and its 13 wins were the most ever in franchise history. The Cardinals offense finished first overall and second in points scored so they will be again tough to stop as they lost no big parts to it. David Johnson could be in for a monster year at running back as the weakness was the offensive line but they shored that up in the offseason. Defensively, Arizona was nearly as good as it finished fifth overall and seventh in points allowed. They got better with the addition of Chandler Jones.
Los Angeles Rams (2015: 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS)
The move to Los Angeles should invigorate a team was underachieving for years in St. Louis. The Rams relied on their defense last season and it definitely is a formidable unit and likely will again until the offense can come together. The Rams took a chance and drafted Jared Goff to be the new franchise quarterback, something they have not had for quite some time. Todd Gurley is already one of the top running backs in the NFL after rushing for 1,106 yards on 4.8 ypc in just 13 games in his rookie season.
San Francisco 49ers (2015: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS)
San Francisco finished last in the division for the first time since 2005 and it does not look to have the pieces in place to get much better. If Blaine Gabbert fails, Colin Kaepernick will get another chance but he is far from the same quarterback as his rating has declined every year since 2012. With the quarterback play iffy at best, relying on the running game could be an option but Carlos Hyde is injury prone and is already dealing with a concussion. The defense finished in the top five in yards allowed for four straight years but fell to No. 29 last season.
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