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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:24:02 GMT -5
NCAAF Opening Line Report: After a slow Week 2 the marquee matchups are back in Week 3
Week 3 of the college football season looks a whole lot better than Week 2, which featured a boatload of gigantic favorites. We talk about the opening lines on a few key games with John Lester, senior lines manager.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 17 Mississippi Rebels (+9.5)
Defending national champion Alabama is already out of the gate with a 2-0 SU and ATS record. The Crimson Tide opened the year with a 52-6 shellacking of Southern California as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorite, then dumped Western Kentucky 38-10 laying 27 points on Saturday.
Mississippi (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) blew a big lead against Florida State in its opener, losing 45-34 as a 4-point neutral-site underdog. The Rebels then rolled past FCS foe Wofford 38-13 Saturday, but fell miles short as 43-point home faves.
The Rebels dealt ‘Bama its only loss last year, 43-37 catching 9 points on the road.
“Both teams had somewhat of a warmup game last week, but Alabama has looked much better collectively during the first two weeks,” Lester said. “It’s going to be tough for Ole Miss to shake off that early loss, and we felt confident opening up ‘Bama as a decent favorite.”
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners (+2)
The Buckeyes have shown no mercy through the first two weeks of the season, piling on Bowling Green 77-10 as a 27.5-point home chalk in Week 1, then drubbing Tulsa 48-3 laying 28 points at home Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Sooners were dealt an upset opening loss by rapidly rising Houston, falling 33-23 as 13-point favorites at NRG Stadium, home of the Houston Texans. Oklahoma took out its frustration on Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday with a 59-17 home victory, though the Sooners fell a few points short against the spread as 46-point favorites.
“If Oklahoma beats Houston in the opener, we probably make the Sooners a small favorite here,” Lester said. “But that might have been a mistake, as these squads look far apart, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Look for the spread to move up before down.”
No. 8 Michigan State at No. 18 Notre Dame (-7.5)
Michigan State comes in at 1-0, but that stems from an uninspired 28-13 Week 1 victory as a 37.5-point home favorite against Wofford, as the Spartans had a bye in Week 2. Notre Dame is more battle-tested, losing an overtime thriller at Texas 50-47 in its opener, then besting Nevada 39-10 Saturday as 27.5-point home chalk.
“With the Spartans coming off an idle week, it really feels like they should be less of a ‘dog here,” Lester said. “But we know the square support will be there on Notre Dame, so had to be wary of that.”
No. 2 Florida State Seminoles at No. 10 Louisville Cardinals (+2.5)
Florida State (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has the lofty ranking, but is laying less than a field goal in its ACC opener. The Seminoles opened the year with a stirring comeback victory, topping Mississippi 45-34 as 4-point neutral-site favorites, then beat up on FCS foe Charleston Southern 52-8 Saturday in an unlined home game.
Louisville (2-0 SU and ATS) opened conference play in convincing fashion Saturday, whipping host Syracuse 62-28 laying 17 points, after a 70-14 beatdown of Charlotte as a 38.5-point home fave in Week 1.
“This is going to be a great gauge as to where these teams are early,” Lester said. “Florida State has seen a quality opponent, but this is going to be a gritty road test for freshman quarterback Deondre Francois. He was very jittery the first half or so against Ole Miss and then settled down. He’ll have to come out poised from the start to get a win here.”
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Post by Makers on Sept 12, 2016 5:30:43 GMT -5
Took some FSU in this one..hoping for a 2H op also..as we had great success last year with Noles 2H adjustments...
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Post by Gooba on Sept 13, 2016 5:06:40 GMT -5
Took some FSU in this one..hoping for a 2H op also..as we had great success last year with Noles 2H adjustments... Good luck Wayne |
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Post by Gooba on Sept 13, 2016 5:06:54 GMT -5
Opening Line Report - Week 3
By Marcus DiNitto
In college football, one loss can hamper a team’s national championship hopes. It can also have a significant impact on the betting line, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing with three top-shelf games on the Week 3 college football card.
Here’s a snapshot of some of the best games of what promises to be another thrilling weekend on the college gridiron. Line are from the Wynn as of 6 p.m. ET on Monday, 24 hours after the sports book posted Las Vegas’ first point spreads on the card.
Ohio State at Oklahoma -2
When the South Point posted its college football games of the year back in May, Oklahoma was installed as a 9-point favorite. A week before the season started, the number was down to Oklahoma -5 at the South Point and -3.5 at the Westgate. The Wynn opened Ohio State -3.5 on Sunday night.
“Total mea culpa on that one, I really had the wrong angle,” South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews said of his May number. “I thought Ohio State would really struggle early in the season.”
According to Andrews’ math, Ohio State – after rolling through rolling its first two opponents, Bowling Green (77-10) and Tulsa (48-3) – grades out as the best team in the country. “They are way better than I thought they would be, much quicker than I thought they would be,” he said.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma “looks nowhere near as good as advertised,” Andrews said. “I thought they were the second or third best team in the country, right behind Alabama and about even with Clemson, and it doesn’t look like they’re nearly that good.”
To be fair, Andrews wasn’t alone. The Golden Nugget opened Oklahoma -6.5 on its games of the year board.
Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons, whose shop was dealing Oklahoma -3.5 before the season started, noted a lot of handicappers are down on the Sooners because of their poor performance in a season-opening 33-23 loss to Houston.
“I think it’s the way they lost,” said Salmons. “It’s hard to understand how Oklahoma could score a touchdown on the first drive of the game, and the rest of the game they did nothing. ... They should outclass Houston 100 days out of 100, It should never be an issue of Oklahoma not scoring points against Houston.”
Still, though, early bettors are taking Oklahoma plus the points for next week’s clash. Twenty four hours after the Wynn opened OSU -3.5, the number was down to -2 at that shop and as low as -1.5 elsewhere. “The right line on that game is Ohio State favored, but definitely not 3,” according to Salmons.
Added Andrews, “Oklahoma still has a ton of talent, and they’re probably a lot better at home than people give them credit for, and if they go out and beat Ohio State by 10 or 14, I would not be all that shocked.”
Alabama -10 at Ole Miss
This SEC showdown in Oxford features another big point-spread swing from games of the year lines. The South Point was dealing Alabama -4 and the Westgate -3.5 a week ahead of the season, but Ole Miss lost to Florida State in Week 1, and ‘Bama opened -10.
“Ole Miss is a really good team, but Alabama looks like they have all the elements again this year. The quarterback (freshman Jalen Hurts) is getting a little bit better,” the Wynn’s John Avello said. “10 seems like a high number when you’re playing in the SEC on the road, but I’ve got to put up a number where I think I can balance it out.”
The Crimson Tide, in fact, laid a shorter number (-9) at home vs. Ole Miss last season, and lost to the Rebels outright for the second straight season.
Salmons pointed to three factors pushing the line in Alabama’s direction: injuries on the Ole Miss side, double revenge for Alabama, and the way Nick Saban’s men have performed through two weeks.
“I’m sure all that is baked into the line,” Salmons said.
From a schematic perspective, Andrews added Mississippi’s running game will be “almost non-existent against Alabama. (Chad) Kelly, who is a pretty good quarterback, is going to be forced into passing situations almost the entire game, and that just plays into Alabama’s hands. I don’t think (the line move is) a huge overreaction.”
USC at Stanford -8.5
This Pac-12 contest follows a pattern similar to the two games discussed above: One team loses in its first game of the season, and we see a major shift from the lines bettors were finding over the summer. In this case, Stanford goes from -3 on the SuperBook’s game of the year lines and -5 at the South Point to opening as a touchdown favorite at the Wynn and getting pushed to -8.5.
The line did dance around Sunday night at the Wynn, as it was bet up to 7.5, then down to 6.5, before favorite money started dominating the action.
“It’s always hard to give USC too many points. It just doesn’t feel right,” Avello said. “But in this particular spot, Stanford might be the better team, at least at this point of the season.”
While the Trojans followed a pathetic showing against Alabama with a 45-7 win over Utah State, Stanford had last week off.
Andrews said of USC, “I think they’re tremendously talented but I think they’re very poorly coached. Teams like that can be wildly inconsistent, but inconsistent means good sometimes, too. I think we saw USC at nearly their best last week.”
He added, “Stanford is the kind of team that will win a lot of games but maybe not cover some big numbers.”
Louisville at Florida State -3 even
Louisville is getting plenty of respect from the betting market, as gamblers grabbed the +3.5 posted at the Wynn Sunday night, pushing the line to -3 (even) at that shop, while other betting locales were dealing 2.5 on Monday. Salmons expects this ACC battle to feature the classic sharps vs. public betting scenario.
“The public’s going to bet Florida State, and the sharps are going to bet Louisville,” Salmons said.
While Louisville hung 70 points on Charlotte in Week 1 and 62 at Syracuse last week, this week’s game will help reveal how good they really are.
Asked how good he thinks Louisville is, Avello responded, “Offensively, really good. But we haven’t seen them against a top-notch team. This is a big game for them because this shows us if they belong. I think Florida State’s a complete team, so if Louisville can beat them, they can show me they belong.”
Said Salmons, “I don’t think their defense is up to the standard of a Clemson or a Florida State, but their offense sure looks like it right now. A lot of people think Louisville belongs in the discussion with Florida State and Clemson (in the ACC), but the public is going to want to see it on the field, that they can beat a Florida State or a Clemson, but obviously the oddsmakers think they’re more than capable.”
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Avello opened Notre Dame -6.5 on Sunday and watched money on the favorite push his line to 7.5 on Monday.
“Michigan State for some reason in these types of games just does not get any respect,” Avello said. “I thought 6.5 was a number that would make you think about both sides, but obviously the bettors think that Notre Dame is better than that, so they laid it, and the first bets came on Notre Dame.”
Salmons seems to be with the chalk players in this case.
“This game sets up real well for Notre Dame because Michigan State plays Neanderthal football, where they just want to run the ball and use clock. The style that can beat Notre Dame is the way Texas plays, quick no-huddles, just keep snapping the ball and running play after play and outscoring them. Michigan State will never outscore Notre Dame."
Quick hits on two more good ones
Oregon at Nebraska: The Wynn opened Nebraska -2.5 and moved to -3 about four hours later. “This is not the Oregon team we remember that used to put up 40 in the first half, but it’s still a good team,” Avello said. “Nebraska is also a good team. I consider these teams to be kind of equal. They’re not at the top of the heap, but they’re just below it. The top of the heap is ‘A’ teams, these are like A-, B+.”
Texas A&M at Auburn: Avello opened Auburn -3.5 and stuck there through the first day of wagering, while other shops were dealing -4. Said Avello, “A&M has got a lot of firepower offensively. Auburn had a nice showing last week (51-14 over Arkansas State). But ever since the national championship game (in 2013), they really haven’t been the same. I don’t know what to think of them. I think the coach (Gus Malzahn) does a good job. I think they’re certainly better than they were last year, but A&M was better than they were last year, too, so I gave them a little home-field advantage, that’s it.”
Early moves
Here are Week 3 lines that saw at least a 2-point swing in the first 24 hours of wagering at The Wynn.
Temple at Penn State
Open line: Penn State -7
After 24 hours: Penn State -9.5
Middle Tennessee State at Bowling Green
Open line: MTSU -3
After 24 hours: MTSU -5.5
Georgia State at Wisconsin
Open line: Wisconsin -31.5
After 24 hours: Wisconsin -33.5
Florida Atlantic at Kansas State
Open line: Kansas State -20
After 24 hours: Kansas State -22
UL Monroe at Georgia Southern
Open line: Georgia Southern -27
After 24 hours: Georgia Southern -25
Duke at Northwestern
Open line: Northwestern -4.5
After 24 hours: Northwestern -6.5
Navy at Tulane
Open line: Navy -11
After 24 hours: Navy -6.5
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Post by Gooba on Sept 13, 2016 5:07:19 GMT -5
'CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes'
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi Rebels September 17, 3:30 EST
Defending National Champion Alabama spanking Southern California 52-6 as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorites in the season opener followed it up with a not so impressive 38-10 victory over Western Kentucky as 27.0 point home chalk. Next up for Tide, a trip to Oxford as 9.5 point road favorites to take on Mississippi Rebels. Tide have won 10 of the past 12 meetings (4-8 ATS) but 'Ole Miss' dealt ‘Bama' its only loss last year, 43-37 catching 9 points on the road and also handed Crimson Tide its only regular season loss the prevoius year, a 23-17 win in front of the home audience as 5.5 point underdogs. Rebels 5-1 ATS as home underdogs, Crimson Tide 2-8-1 ATS laying 7 to 10 on the road, 4-5-1 ATS last ten as road chalk vs the Conference you bet Nick Saban's troops at some risk
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Post by Gooba on Sept 14, 2016 6:25:45 GMT -5
Timing is everything and sharps are watching these college football lines very closely
Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet now
South Florida (-14) at Syracuse
South Florida opened as a 12.5-point favorite and the line quickly climbed to -14 with some locations already moving to -14.5. The Bulls have been explosive in their first two games, scoring 56 and 48 points while averaging 551 total yards per game and 7.1 yards per play. Their defense has also been strong, allowing just 18.5 points per game and just 3.7 yards per play.
Syracuse is playing their third straight home game, however this could be a bit of a letdown spot after a high profile national TV home game last Friday night versus Louisville. The Orange were unable to slow down a potent Louisville offense as the Cardinals scored 62 points and gained an incredible 845 total yards (414 rushing / 431 passing).
Spread to wait on
Colorado (+20.5) at Michigan
Colorado opened as low as +19 in some spots and +20 in others, and was quickly bet up to +20.5. This line will likely hit the key number of +21 or more, especially since Michigan has been so dominant in their first two games this season. The Wolverines have won their other two games at home by scores of 63-3 (vs. Hawaii) and 51-14 (vs. UCF). Michigan has out-gained their two opponents by an average of 479-281 total yards (6.8-4.4 yppl).
While there is no question Michigan is loaded, this is a possible flat spot after two easy home wins and with their conference opener on deck next week versus Penn State. In fact, Michigan will play five straight home games to start this season, so there is a chance they become a bit complacent this week. Colorado has been very impressive in their first two games, winning 44-7 and 56-7, out-gaining their opponents by an average of 587-160 in total yards (6.6-2.7 yppl).
Total to watch
Ohio State at Oklahoma (64.5)
This Over/Under line opened at 64.5 and has held steady so far. This game obviously has huge national championship playoff implications, especially for Oklahoma who has already lost this season, 23-33 versus Houston. The Sooners struggled to stop the pass in that game, allowing the Cougars to throw for 321 yards. Oklahoma also allowed UL Monroe to throw for 272 yards last week. The Sooners are allowing 7.7 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average just 6.8 ypp).
Ohio State has been potent on offense so far this season, averaging 62.5 points per game and 596 total yards (7.3 yppl). They are averaging 313 rushing yards (6.1 ypr) and 283 passing yards (9.3 ypp). However, the Buckeyes defense has yet to be tested. Oklahoma is a capable scoring machine as they showed last week when they put up 59 points on 640 total yards.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 14, 2016 6:26:29 GMT -5
ACC Report - Week 3
2016 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 1-1 0-1 1-0-1 0-2
Clemson 2-0 0-0 0-2 0-2
Duke 1-1 0-1 1-1 0-2
Florida State 2-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Georgia Tech 2-0 1-0 0-0-1 0-1
Louisville 2-0 1-0 2-0 2-0
Miami (Fla.) 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
North Carolina 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-1
North Carolina State 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-0-1
Pittsburgh 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1
Syracuse 1-1 0-1 1-1 1-1
Virginia 0-2 0-0 1-1 0-1-1
Virginia Tech 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Wake Forest 2-0 1-0 1-1 0-2
Florida State at Louisville (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
We're going to find out a lot about Louisville Saturday afternoon, as ESPN's College Gameday visits for the first time in the program's history. More importantly, we're going to find out if Lamar Jackson is ready for prime time or still needs some seasoning. He has been putting up video game-like numbers in the first two outings, but a visit from Florida State's battle-tested defense is a different story. The Seminoles opened as 3 1/2-point favorites and it has been bet down to 2 at most shops, with more movement to come. The 'Noles are 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven road outings against teams with a winning home record. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games dating back to last season. The 'over' is 7-2 in FSU's past nine on fieldturf, while the 'under' is 9-3 in their past 12 ACC battles. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four on fieldturf and 4-0 in the past in the ACC for the Cards.
Miami-Florida at Appalachian State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Miami invades Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, N.C. for perhaps the biggest game in Appalachian State's history. Well, the biggest game outside of their upset win at Michigan as an FCS squad. App State is an FBS team now in the Sun Belt Conference, and they're looking to make headlines again. The Mountaineers nearly pulled off an upset at Tennessee, taking the Vols to overtime before succumbing 20-13. Miami has rolled through Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic at home, going 2-0 ATS in the process. The line for this game opened at 4 1/2 and slipped to 3 1/2 as of Tuesday night. Can the Mountaineers shut down the speedy Hurricanes? Miami is 5-1 ATS in their past six games in September, while App State is 0-5 ATS in their past five following a straight up win and 1-4 ATS in their past five at home.
Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Vandy goes from the capital of Tennessee to the capital of Georgia to battle the Ramblin' Wreck. Anyone going to this game have a slaw dog for me at The Varsity and tell me all about it. The Commodores are 14-6 ATS in their past 20 road games, and 12-4 ATS in their past 16 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Yellow Jackets are 13-6-1 ATS in their past 20 in September, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five at home, 2-5 ATS in their past seven against the SEC and 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 games overall. The trends point to an 'under' result, as the under is 7-1 in Vandy's past eight on the road and 7-2 in their past nine against teams with an overall winning record. The under is 5-1 in Ga. Tech's past six and 5-2 in their past seven against SEC foes. The line for this game is set at Georgia Tech -6 1/2 points and a total of 43.
Virgnia at Connecitcut (ESPN3, 1:30 p.m.)
Virginia heads to UConn searching for their first taste of victory after an extremely disappointing opening game loss to FCS Richmond, and a drubbing at the hands of Oregon at Autzen last weekend. UConn nearly met the same fate in their opener, edging FCS Maine 24-21 despite entering as a 27-point favorite. The Huskies played Navy tough in Annapolis, but were dumped 28-24. The 'over' has connected in each of UConn's first two games while going 0-2 ATS. The Cavaliers are also 0-2 ATS in their first two games, so something's gotta give. Connecticuts enters as 4 1/2-point favorite with a total of 48 1/2.
Boston College at Virginia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
The Eagles head to Blacksburg for their second conference game of the season already, while the Hokies look to rebound after Tennessee raced past them at Bristol Motor Speedway last weekend. The Eagles have already been to Ireland and Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, and now head to Virginia, failing to play a game on campus yet. They're 5-1 ATS in their past six games on the road, including last weekend's cover against UMass. The Hokies have covered just once in the past five at Lane Stadium, and they're a dismal 5-16-1 ATS in their past 22 in the month of September. Boston College has owned this series, at least against the number, going 4-1 ATS in the past five, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 trips to Blacksburg. The underdog is also 4-1 ATS in the past five.
Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
The Panthers outlasted Penn State in an emotional rivalry game, and now turn around for another difficult matchup on the road. Oklahoma State was jobbed by the refs last weekend before falling on a miraculous hook and ladder play against Central Michigan that should have never been allowed to occur. OK State enters as a six-point favorite, and they should be mighty angry after their loss last weekend. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games, but just 2-6 ATS in their past eight in September and 0-4 ATS in their past four non-conference tilts. OK State is 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 after a straight-up loss.
South Florida at Syracuse (ACC Network, 3:30 p.m.)
South Florida tuned up Northern Illinois at the Ray Jay last weekend, now they hit the road for the Carrier Dome against a Syracuse team which served as punching bag for Lamar Jackson and Louisville last Friday. USF has been hot against the number, covering six of their past seven in the month of September, 6-2 ATS in their past eight non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road. The Orange is still 5-2 ATS in their past seven against winning teams despite being manhandled last weekend, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six under the dome. however, they are just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Old Dominion at North Carolina State (ACC Network, 6:00 p.m.)
Old Dominion pummeled FCS Hampton in their opener to cover a 24-point line, and then were smashed at App State 31-7. N.C. State returns home from the coastal plain after being dumped by East Carolina last weekend. These sides met last season in Virginia, with the Wolfpack pushing aside the Monarchs 38-14 to cover a 17-point number. The last time these teams met in Raleigh, ODU covered a 15 1/2-point number in a 46-34 loss, but that was also with their former dynamic QB Taylor Heinicke, who now carries a clipboard on Sundays for the Minnesota Vikings. N.C. State enters as a 21 1/2-point favorite with a total of 58. ODU is 1-7 ATS in their past eight non-conference tilts, and 1-5 ATS in their past six on the road. The Wolfpack are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 non-conference battles despite last weekend's debacle, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five at Carter-Finley.
Duke at Northwestern (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m.)
Duke looks to rebound after taking it on the chin 24-14 to Wake Forest in Durham. Northwestern has really struggled to open the season, falling by a point in their opener to Western Michigan before being stunned by FCS Illinois State in a defensive slog last weekend. The Wildcats are averaging 14.0 PPG with two 'under' results and they're 0-2 ATS. The Blue Devils have split their first two games with a pair of 'under' results. The last time these clubs met, it was Northwestern winning 19-10 at Wallace Wade Stadium Sept. 17, 2016, in a game I actually attended. You can expect another low-scoring battle in Evanston between two disjointed offensive units.
Other Games
South Carolina State at Clemson (ACC Network, 12:00 p.m.)
James Madison at North Carolina (ACC Network. 3:30 p.m.)
Delaware at Wake Forest (ACC Network, 6:30 p.m.)
Other Games -- NOTES
Clemson was nearly tripped up by Troy last weekend. Look for the Tigers, 0-2 ATS, to get on track against an in-state FCS foe. The last time these squads met it was a 73-7 lesson that the Bulldogs are likely still feeling. SCSU enters 0-2, having lost to UCF 38-0 in their opener Sept. 3, and 53-24 to Louisiana Tech last weekend. ... UNC handled their business, topping a Power 5 team on the road, albeit a bottom-feeder in Illinois. Now, the Tar Heels take another breather against the Dukes of James Madison. The Dukes are averaging 68.0 points per game, including an 80-spot against Morehead State in their opener. ... Wake Forest is suddenly thinking bowl after winning at Duke to move to 2-0. A win against the Blue Hens and they're halfway home to bowl eligibility in mid-September.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 14, 2016 6:27:02 GMT -5
Big 12 Report - Week 3
2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 2-0 0-0 0-2 0-2
Iowa State 0-2 0-0 0-2 0-2
Kansas 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-1
Kansas State 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Oklahoma 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Oklahoma State 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-1
Texas 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
Texas Christian 1-1 0-0 0-2 2-0
Texas Tech 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-1
West Virginia 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
Baylor at Rice (Fri. ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Baylor hits the road for Rice Stadium Friday night looking to move to 3-0. So far the Bears are unbeaten, but they have appeared slightly off while failing to cover either of their games. The 'under' is also 2-0 in Baylor's first two games, something we haven't been accustomed to seeing too frequently in recent seasons. Still, Baylor is averaging 47.5 points per game (PPG), and it's more the result of a strong defensive effort that the under has been coming through. Rice has been anemic on offense, mustering just 28 total points through two games at Western Kentucky and at Army, and they're also 0-2 ATS with a pair of under results. Last season it was Baylor humbling Rice 70-17 in Waco, posting 793 total yards of offense to just 246 for Rice. You can expect a similar result, with the Owls struggling to take flight. Baylor is a 30 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday AM.
Kansas at Memphis (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)
The Jayhawks were feeling good about themselves, topping FCS Rhode Island in the opener after a winless 2015 season. Things were looking up heading into Game 2 against Ohio University, but after a loss it's the same old ugly feeling heading down to Memphis Saturday afternoon. KU is 9-26-1 ATS in their past 36 road outings, 4-12 ATS in the past 16 overall, 2-7 ATS in their past nine against teams with a winning record and 3-11-1 ATS in their past 15 non-conference tilts. Memphis is coming off a bye, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six following a week off. They're also 15-5-1 ATS in their past 21 non-conference battles. Memphis failed to cover in their first game against FCS Southeast Missouri State, and they enter as a near three-touchdown favorite in this one.
Iowa State at Texas Christian (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa State has not fared well with teams from the Hawkeye state, so perhaps traveling outside of its borders will result in a better outcome. The Cyclones were surprised at home by FCS Northern Iowa, and they were absolutely blown out of Kinnick Stadium at Iowa last weekend, falling 42-3. TCU displayed plenty of chinks in the armor in a 59-41 win over FCS South Dakota State. Arkansas exploited those chinks and turned it into a 41-38 overtime victory last weekend over their former Southwest Conference rivals. TCU has allowed 41 points in each of their two games, and no surprise the 'over' is 2-0 in their first two games. Iowa State has scored a total of just 23 points in two games, so it's doubtful they'll be able to reach that level. The 'under' is 2-0 in I-State's first two outings. TCU opened at 22 1/2 and the line quickly escalated to 24. The total is set at 61.
Florida Atlantic at Kansas State (NO TV, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Florida Atlantic opened with a win over FCS Southern Illinois, and then went down to Miami and hung around with a strong defensive effort before the Hurricanes pulled away in the second half. K-State hasn't played in two weeks since their opening game loss at Stanford, when Heisman hopeful Christian McCaffrey ran wild. The Wildcats do not have to worry about any Owls running wild on them, but they will be tested by FAU's up-tempo, no-huddle offense which has them averaging 24.0 PPG. On the flip side, FAU is allowing 34.0 PPG while going 0-2 ATS so far this season.
Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
The Panthers outlasted Penn State in an emotional rivalry game, and now turn around for another difficult matchup on the road. Oklahoma State was jobbed by the refs last weekend before falling on a miraculous hook and ladder play against Central Michigan that should have never been allowed to occur. OK State enters as a six-point favorite, and they should be mighty angry after their loss last weekend. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games, but just 2-6 ATS in their past eight in September and 0-4 ATS in their past four non-conference tilts. OK State is 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 after a straight-up loss.
Louisiana Tech at Texas Tech (NO TV, 7:00 p.m.)
It's the 'Tech Bowl', as the Bulldogs hit the road for Lubbock to battle the Red Raiders. Texas Tech was involved in an absurd game at Arizona State last weekend, falling 68-55 in the desert as the total of 80 was taken care of in the third quarter. Texas Tech has averaged 62.0 PPG on offense through two games. La. Tech will be hard-pressed to slow TTU down, although they did a good job holding Arkansas at bay in a near upset Sept. 3, losing 21-20 as 21-point underdogs. The Bulldogs rebounded last week and flexed a little muscle in a 53-24 win over South Carolina State, but their defense leaked a bit of oil. That cannot be good heading into a game with the Red Raiders, who are capable of 70 in this one. The Red Raiders are favored by just 10 1/2 with a total of 79 1/2.
Ohio State at Oklahoma (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)
One of the most anticipated matchups of the weekend comes from Norman, as Ohio State heads down to Oklahoma looking to deliver a knockout blow to the Sooners' playoff chances in mid-September. The Buckeyes have piled up 125 points through two games, routing Bowling Green 77-10 and shutting down a high-octane Tulsa offense 48-3 last week. Oklahoma rebounded after their stunning 33-23 loss to Houston, pounding on Louisiana-Monroe by a 59-17 count. Still, the Sooners are 0-2 ATS while the Buckeyes are 2-0 ATS. This is the first meeting between the schools. Ohio State was installed as a six-point underdog a few weeks ago, now they enter Norman favored by two.
Texas at California (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
The Longhorns are climbing in the rankings after spanking Texas-El Paso last week, covering for the second time in as many games. California will be back home after dropping one at San Diego State last week against Heisman dark horse Donnel Pumphrey. The Bears were locked in a shootout last week, losing 45-40, and they figure to see more of the same against a Texas team averaged 45.5 PPG. Remember, the last time these two teams faced each other Sept.. 19, 2015, it was Cal coming away with a 45-44 win in Austin courtesy of a missed extra point. In this one, Texas is a much better team, while California isn't nearly as dangerous. Texas opened as a touchdown favorite and the line climbed to eight. The total is just shy of 80.
Team on a bye
West Virginia
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Post by Gooba on Sept 14, 2016 6:27:42 GMT -5
Pac-12 Report - Week 3
2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Arizona State 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
California 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0
Colorado 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
Oregon 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0
Oregon State 0-1 0-0 1-0 0-1
Southern California 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0
Stanford 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
UCLA 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-0-1
Utah 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1
Washington 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Washington State 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0
Arizona State at Texas-San Antonio (Fri. - ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET)
The Sun Devils hit the road for Texas-San Antonio after a 68-55 shootout win against Texas Tech, while UTSA looks to rebound after a 23-14 setback at Colorado State a week ago. The Roadrunners are 0-2 ATS and the 'under' has cashed in each of their two games. The 'under' hasn't been a problem for Arizona State, as they're averaging 56.0 PPG while allowing 34.0 PPG while covering each of their first two games. The Sun Devils are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games, while going 2-6 ATS in their past eight in the month of September. The Roadrunners are 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference games while going 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight overall.
Idaho at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m.)
Idaho was waffled at Washington by a 59-14 score last weekend in Seattle, now they take on the Evergreen State's other Pac-12 representative. The last time these teams matched up it was WaZu winning 42-0 Sept. 21, 2013. The Vandals are averaging just 17.0 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. The Cougars are searching for their first win of the season after losing to FCS Eastern Washington in the opener, and at Boise State last weekend. However, the Cougs were much better in Boise. They nearly pulled off the upset, losing 31-28 as a near two-touchdown underdog. The Vandals are 1-4 ATS in their past five against the Pac-12, and 1-8 ATS in their past nine in September. The Cougs are still 5-1 ATS in their past six at home despite their loss to EWU, and they're 10-2 ATS in their past 12 overall.
Colorado at Michigan (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Buffaloes hit the road for the Big House to face the high-flying Wolverines. Seeing Colorado-Michigan on the schedule brings back memories of Kordell Stewart to Michael Westbrook on a Hail Mary to sadden Ann Arbor back in 1994. Colorado is off to a hot start, spanking Colorado State 44-7 and then punishing FCS Idaho State by a 56-7 count. So far the Buffs are 2-0 ATS, but they will face, by far, their stiffest test Saturday. Michigan is averaging 57.0 PPG while allowing just 8.5 PPG, and they have covered two spreads of 36 or more points with the 'over' cashing in each outing. Colorado is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts, but they're 11-23-1 ATS in their past 35 road outings. Michigan has covered four straight non-conference games while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning overall record. However, they are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 tries against Pac-12 foes.
Oregon at Nebraska (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Perhaps this game doesn't have the interest of Florida State-Louisville, Ohio State-Oklahoma, etc. However, the Ducks meeting former Oregon State head coach Mike Riley, who is now the head man in Nebraska. How's that for a storyline? Riley coached Oregon State to a 4-10 record against Oregon. The Ducks are 27-10 ATS in their past 37 against teams with a winning record, and an amazing 22-5 ATS in their past 27 road games. However, they are 0-4 ATS in their past four non-conference games, including 0-2 ATS in their first two outings. The Huskers are 5-1 ATS in their past six non-conference battles while going 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. Nebraska enters as a 3 1/2-point favorite. The 'over' is also 4-1 in Oregon's past five against a team with a winning record, and the over is 8-2 in Nebraska's past 10 non-conference games and 5-1 in their past six against teams with a winning overall mark.
Southern California at Stanford (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
USC rebounded last week against Utah State, spanking the Aggies to make themselves feel better after being emasculated by Alabama in their opener. Stanford topped Kansas State and then had a week off, so they're fresh and ready for a visit from the Trojans. This line opened at 6 1/2 and quickly moved to 9 1/2 while the total holds steady at 53. USC is 2-6 ATS in their past eight overall, while going 7-19 ATS in their past 26 road outings. They're also 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road outings against a team with a winning home record. Stanford is 36-16-1 ATS in their past 53 conference games, and 39-18 ATS in their past 57 home games. The Trojans are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 against the Cardinal, while the road team is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. The underdog is also 8-2 ATS in the past 10 battles.
UCLA at Brigham Young (ESPN2, 10:15 p.m.)
UCLA heads to Provo looking to top BYU again. They held off the Cougars last season by a 24-23 score, averting a near disaster as 16 1/2-point favorites at the Rose Bowl. UCLA lost to Texas A&M in their opener, and rebounded with a win over UNLV. They have failed to cover in either of their outings, and they're 0-4 ATS in their past four non-conference games. BYU has covered both of their games, topping Arizona in the opener and then slipping up at Utah in the Holy War last week, electing to go for two in the final moments rather than kick an extra point and battle in overtime. The 'under' is 2-0 for BYU so far.
Texas at California (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
The Longhorns are climbing in the rankings after spanking Texas-El Paso last week, covering for the second time in as many games. California will be back home after dropping one at San Diego State last week against Heisman dark horse Donnel Pumphrey. The Bears were locked in a shootout last week, losing 45-40, and they figure to see more of the same against a Texas team averaged 45.5 PPG. Remember, the last time these two teams faced each other Sept.. 19, 2015, it was Cal coming away with a 45-44 win in Austin courtesy of a missed extra point. In this one, Texas is a much better team, while California isn't nearly as dangerous. Texas opened as a touchdown favorite and the line climbed to eight. The total is just shy of 80.
Hawai'i at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 10:45 p.m.)
Hawai'i plays its fourth game of the season already, having lost to California in Sydney and Michigan in Ann Arbor. They are coming off a win against FCS Tennessee-Martin to make them feel better, but now it's back to reality in Tucson this weekend. Arizona was dumped by BYU in their opener before narrowly avoiding disaster against FCS Gramling State last weekend. The Wildcats have failed to cover in two games, and the 'under' has cashed in each outing. Hawai'i is 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, while going 1-7 ATS in their past eight overall. Arizona is just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games in the month of September, while going 2-7 ATS in their nine non-conference battles.
Other Games
Idaho State at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 5:00 p.m.)
Portland State at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)
Utah at San Jose State (CBS Sports Network, 10:30 p.m.)
Other Games -- NOTES
Oregon State is looking to rebound after a loss at Minnesota in their opener Sept. 1. They've had 16 days to rebound and get prepare for Idaho State in what should be their first win of the season. Idaho State was hammered last weekend by Colorado by a 56-7 score last weekend. ... Portland State heads to Seattle to battle U-Dub for the first time since Sept. 15, 2012 when the Huskies came away with a 52-13 win. That Washington team paled in comparison to this season's squad, which has lofty expectations. Washington has covered both of their games while averaging 53.5 PPG and allowed 13.5 PPG and the 'over' has cashed in each. ... Utah heads to the Bay Area to meet San Jose State, and they enter as near two-touchdown favorites. The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their past five battles against Mountain West foes, and they're 11-3 ATS in their past 14 non-conference games. The Spartans are 1-1 ATS in two non-conference games this season, and 19-9 ATS in their past 28 outside the MWC. They're just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 against teams with a winning overall mark.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 14, 2016 6:29:18 GMT -5
Houston at Cincinnati
This week’s Thursday night game puts the American Athletic Conference in the spotlight in a rematch of one of the best games from the conference race last season.
Cincinnati has been consistently successful in the last decade but this year Houston is the team to watch after turning in a big opening week victory and currently sitting at #6 in the AP Poll.
Here is a preview of the Thursday night showcase game between Houston and Cincinnati.
Match-up: Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats
Venue: Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 15, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Houston -8, Over/Under 64
Last Meeting: 2015, at Houston (-9) 33, Cincinnati 30.
Current head coaches at Michigan State, Notre Dame, and Tennessee had success at Cincinnati before taking higher profile jobs as the program has had just one losing season in the last decade while posting nine or more wins in seven of those seasons. Cincinnati is certainly a program that will be considered in the Big XII expansion and has to be considered one of the top programs outside of the current five major conferences.
Tommy Tuberville had a fairly successful 10-year run at Auburn before leaving after a marginal 2008 season. He coached at Texas Tech for three seasons and then after the 2012 season he made what most considered at best a lateral move to Cincinnati. After a pair of 9-4 seasons the Bearcats slipped to 7-6 last season, falling short of AAC titles the past two seasons after finishing in a three-way tie for the title in 2014.
Hayden Moore filled in successfully as a freshman for Gunner Kiel and he hasn’t surrendered the starting quarterback job leading the Bearcats to a 2-0 start with wins over FCS Tennessee-Martin and a notable win at Purdue last week. An offense that averaged nearly 34 points per game hasn’t been quite as prolific so far this season but Moore has thrown for 510 yards with five touchdowns and senior running back Tion Green has 150 yards on 32 carries so far to lead the offense. All of the top receivers from last season’s squad departed but so far senior Nate Cole has stepped up with 12 catches including three for touchdowns.
Defense is generally the concern for Cincinnati as the Bearcats allowed over 31 points per game last season with particular struggles against the run, allowing 192 yards per game on the ground on nearly 5.0 yards per rush. Cincinnati’s worst losses came against teams that could run, notable against BYU and South Florida in double-digit defeats as well as struggling to contain the run in the matchup with Houston last season.
While last season Cincinnati had three early season losses to fall short of expectations, they went into Houston last November with the Cougars a top 20 team at 8-0 and nearly came away with the upset. Houston took a 30-14 lead in the third quarter with a safety but Cincinnati outscored Houston 16-3 the rest of the way to get within three points and the Bearcats had the ball back near midfield before running out of downs.
Houston had a 589-427 yardage edge but also had three turnovers and very little success running the ball as the Cougars had a 266-66 yardage edge on the ground. Cincinnati also had 11 penalties in the game and a big disadvantage in time of possession.
These teams met in the regular season finale in 2014 with Cincinnati winning 38-31 at home in a win that gave the Bearcats a share of the AAC title. The stakes appear to be much higher for Houston this season, even though this is just the third game of the season.
After going 13-1 last season with a win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl the Cougars opened the season on the national radar and with an upset over Oklahoma in the opening week this is a team that continues to climb in the polls and most feel will have a shot to be undefeated.
The opening week win over Oklahoma was at NRG Stadium and despite falling behind early the Cougars rallied to take a lead at the half. The big play in the game was a third quarter return touchdown after a long field goal try for the Sooners that fell just short but Houston had eight more first downs in the game and more yardage as they shut down what was expected to be one of the nation’s top offensive teams. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. kept up with Baker Mayfield throwing for over 300 yards and the lines on both sides of the ball had strong play.
Last week Ward did not play vs. FCS Lamar with a right shoulder injury as junior Kyle Potsma stepped in admirably as he did last season in a few instances. The running game led the way last week with 381 rushing yards and the defense was dominant in the shutout with just 73 yards allowed. Getting that type of performance will be a great challenge this week as Houston and second year head coach Tom Herman look to continue what they hope will be a special season.
Houston entered the season as the heavy favorite in the AAC West and the leading candidate to return to a major bowl game as the top Group of 5 squad. Those hopes are alive as Houston climbs the polls but down the road a perfect season may still not be enough as the schedule will be quite weak overall. This game projects to be the toughest road game of the season for Houston as the late season test against Louisville will be at home.
While the conversations about whether or not Houston has a chance at the College Football Playoff will be for another day, this Thursday night spotlight game is the matchup most expect to see again in December for the AAC title game. While more may be at stake for the Cougars this is a great opportunity for Cincinnati to get a signature win as well in what could be a bounce-back season for the program after last season’s mediocrity.
Historical Trends:
-- Last season’s win for Houston was the first in the series since 1999, snapping a five-game winning streak for Cincinnati.
-- Going back to 1993 Houston is just 3-8 S/U and ATS in this series with all of the S/U wins coming at home.
-- Six of the last eight meetings between these schools have been decided by seven or fewer points.
-- Since 1989 Cincinnati is 75-56-1 ATS at home with a 32-18 ATS mark as a home underdog.
-- Cincinnati was a 7-point favorite hosting this matchup in 2014 and has not been this big of a home underdog since ironically hosting Oklahoma (+14) in a 29-31 loss in 2010.
-- Going back to November of 2012 Houston is on a 15-1 ATS run as a road team with the only miss being the upset loss at Connecticut last November.
-- The Cougars are 6-1 S/U and ATS as a road favorite since 2013 and in that time the program has been among the nation’s best ATS performers at 28-14 ATS overall since the start of the 2013 season.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 14, 2016 6:29:52 GMT -5
Bearcats look for upset
Houston (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Cincinnati (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Lines: Houston (-8.5)
It's tough to deny how good the 6th ranked Houston Cougars have looked so far in this young season.
Houston knocked off Oklahoma in Week 1 as a double-digit underdog, and followed that up with a 42-0 victory over FCS Lamar with their backup QB.
This week they hit the national spotlight once again, albeit on the road, to face a Cincinnati Bearcats team that has won their two games this season by an average of 19.5 points.
Clearly there has to be some concern for Houston backers about the health of starting QB Greg Ward's shoulder, but a big part of the reason he sat last week vs. Lamar was to give that shoulder extra time to heal for this AAC showdown.
Ward and his Cougars teammates held on to a 33-30 home win as 9-point favorites last year against the Bearcats and the entire Houston team knows they'll be in for another tough fight on the road this season.
But this team is now a year older and has already shown some impressive fortitude in beating Oklahoma, but they'll need a healthy and strong Ward under center to cover this number as road favs.
Cincinnati comes into this game with the mindset that they'd love to knock off everyone's AAC darling right now and throw themselves into the rankings.
Beating a 6th ranked Houston team would likely give a lot of credence to that argument and with a 2-0-1 ATS record (2-1 SU) the last three years vs. Houston, the Bearcats are a legit outright contender here.
QB Hayden Moore has been impressive in his first two starts of the season, and Cincinnati definitely has the offensive weapons at their disposal to keep up with the Cougars should this game turn into a shootout.
Not surprisingly, much of the early money has come on Houston as many bettors are buying into the hype that this team has a legit chance to be a playoff buster and go undefeated in 2016.
Even if that is the case, 8.5 points is a lot to lay on the road in a conference rivalry game, on a short week, and under the national spotlight. That point is even more important when you consider that the last three games between these two since they became conference rivals have all been decided by a touchdown or less.
Throw in a sore shoulder for Houston's QB, and I would not be surprised to see this line come back down around a touchdown by kickoff.
Therefore, if you are inclined to go against the majority right now and grab the points with the home dog, I suggest you do so sooner than later.
Cincinnati is on a 11-3-1 ATS run against conference opponents and although Houston is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 on the road, their early season upset win vs. Oklahoma has put lofty expectations on this Houston team and with that comes point spreads that are a touch inflated.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 14, 2016 6:30:50 GMT -5
Tech Trends - Week 3
Thursday, Sept. 15
Matchup Skinny Edge
HOUSTON at CINCINNATI...Cougs had problems vs. Cincy LY and did not cover, though UH now 6-1 vs. spread away from TDECU Stadium. UH 29-14-1 vs. points since late 2012, though 0-2-1 vs. spread last three vs. Bearcats. Cincy 8-2 as home dog since 2006.
Slight to Cincy, based on team and series trends.
Friday, Sept. 16
Matchup Skinny Edge
BAYLOR at RICE...Bears 3-9-1 as visiting chalk since 2011, though 19-11-1 laying DD since 2013. Rice 0-3 as home dog LY and just 2-10-1 last 13 getting points.
Baylor, based on team trends.
ARIZONA STATE at UTSA...UTSA 8-16 spread skid since mid 2014. Graham 6-3 last 9 as road chalk.
ASU,based on recent UTSA woes.
ARKANSAS STATE at UTAH STATE...ASU 2-5 last seven as visiting dog. USU 13-8 vs. line last 21 at Logan.
USU, based on team trends.
Saturday, Sept. 17
Matchup Skinny Edge
EASTERN MICHIGAN at CHARLOTTE... EMU has not been road chalk since 2005 under Jeff Genyk in finale at Buffalo! EMU 9-16-1 vs. line since Creighton arrived in 2014, and no covers last 8 as chalk.
Charlotte, based on EMU chalk woes.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS...Ugh! WMU now 3-0 vs. line against Big Ten since last season, 5-2 last seven since 2013 under Fleck. If getting points note Broncos 11-3 as dog since late 2013. Illini just 2-7 last 9 vs. spread against non-Big Ten foes.
WMU, based on team trends.
EAST CAROLINA at SOUTH CAROLINA... Muschamp was 9-18 his last 27 as chalk at Florida. Cocks only 2-7 as home chalk since 2013. ECU 7-3 as dog past three seasons.
Tech edge-
ECU, based on team trends.
FLORIDA STATE at LOUISVILLE...Noles have won and covered high-scoring games past two seasons. Jimbo 6-1 vs. line last 7 in reg season. Cards only 4-8 as home dog since 2006, Petrino 5-4 as dog since 2014.
FSU, based on team and series trends.
TEMPLE at PENN STATE...James Franklin 8-4 vs. line at Happy Valley since arriving in 2014, better than desultory road spread mark. Under Rhule, Owls 8-4 as visiting dog since 2013 and 12-7 as visitor vs. spread.
Slight to Temple, based on team trends.
MARYLAND at UCF...UCF no covers last 6 vs. line at home. Knights had been good dog for O'Leary in 2013-14 (6-1) before falling apart LY to 2-6 in role. Terps 8-4 vs. line as visitor since 2014.
Maryland, based on recent UCF woes.
VIRGINIA at UCONN...Cavs were 11-4 last 15 as dog to close the Mike London era. Bronco was 13-7 last 20 as dog at BYU & UVa. UConn now 0-7 as chalk for Diaco since 2014 and no covers last 13 in role dating to 2012!
Virginia, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at TCU...ISU has been buried the past two years vs. TCU. Matt Campbell was 3-0 as dog at Toledo LY and is 12-7 in role since 2012. Though Cyclones 6-15-1 as DD dog the past four years of the Paul Rhoads regime.
TCU, based on team and recent series trends.
COLORADO at MICHIGAN...Buffs improved to 3-2 as road dog LY after 3-6 mark previous two years for MacIntyre and 6-19 mark in role (mostly Embree's fault) since 2010. CU on 9-5-1 spread run since late 2014. Harbaugh now 6-2 as home chalk and 6-3 laying DD after opening romps.
Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO at RUTGERS...NM 11-6-1 vs. spread away since 2013. Tough Rutgers debut for Ash at U-Dub. Under Flood, Scarlet Knights just 8-12 vs. line as host past three years.
New Mexico, based on recent Davie road marks.
MTSU at BOWLING GREEN...MTSU 3-2 vs. line as non-Belt visitor past two years. Post-Dino era at BGSU has begun slowly (Falcs 0-2 SU and vs. line since he left before Camellia Bowl, allowing 68 ppg in those losses!). Dino was only 4-5 as Doyt Perry chalk past two seasons.
Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.
FIU at UMASS (at McGuirk Stadium)... Minutemen just 2-5 vs. line last seven as host. FIU 7-4 vs. line away since 2014, 3-1-2 as chalk.
FIU, based on team trends.
GEORGIA STATE at WISCONSIN...Note Panthers on 15-5 road dog run since 2012 though 0-2 vs. line in 2016. Paul Chryst only 3-4 laying DD LY for Badgers, who have Mich State on deck.
GSU, based on team trends.
UNLV at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Rebs 13-5 as road dog since 2012. CM 3-4 as home chalk since 2014 but 17-7 last 24 vs. line.
UNLV, based on team trends.
VANDERBILT at GEORGIA TECH...Tech on 1-9-1 spread skid since early 2015. Derek Mason 11-7 as dog since 2014, Dores 22-13 as dog since 2011.
Slight to Vandy, based on team trends.
ARMY at UTEP...Army 6-0-2 vs. line last eight away from home! Though if chalk note 0-8 mark in role on road since 2006! Miners 9-2 vs. spread at Sun Bowl since 2014, but 1-6-1 vs. spread last eight non-CUSA Games.
Army, based on recent trends.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at KANSAS STATE...FAU 9-6 as dog since 2014 for Partridge, 23-9 in role since 2012. Bill Snyder 0-3 as home chalk LY though was 5-1 in role in 2014. Cats 3-6 vs. spread last 9 at home vs. non-Big 12.
FAU, based on team trends.
FRESNO STATE at TOLEDO...DeRuyter 4-12 vs. line in non-MW games, three of those W vs. FCS, the other vs. Idaho. FSU 1-7 vs. line last 8 as dog away from home. Rockets 11-3-1 last 14, 3-0 as DD chalk since LY.
Toledo, based on team trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH...BC had covered four straight vs. Beamer prior to LY. Eagles 5-0-1 as visiting dog past two years. Hokies 8-17-1 as home chalk from 2011-15, but Fuente was 8-3 laying DD at Memphis past two seasons.
BC, based on team and extended series trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at SYRACUSE...USF has covered 10 of last 11 reg season games. Bulls covers last six as chalk. Dino Babers 10-4-1 vs. line since LY at BGSU & Cuse.
USF, based on recent trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Aztecs on 9-3 spread run since early 2015. Also covers last five away from home. NIU hasn't been home dog since 2011 vs. WMU and is 5-0 in that rare DeKalb role since 2006. Though Carey only 5-5 as dog past two years.
SDSU, based on team trends.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at MIAMI-OHIO...Miami was 6-0 as DD dog in 2014 but only 3-4 in role LY. Already 1-0 as DD dog in 2016. WKU rolled RedHawks 56-14 LY. Tops 9-3 last 12 as chalk and 7-2 laying DD since 2014.
WKU, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA...Littrell first road game with UNT, Mean Green now 8-17 vs. line since 2014 (0-1 for Littrell), 2-11 as road dog since 2014. McElwain however only 1-4 as Swamp chalk since last season after good home chalk marks with CSU.
Florida, based on UNT negatives.
LA TECH at TEXAS TECH...Skip Holtz 7-1 as dog since 2014, also 12-5 last 17 vs. spread away from Ruston.
La Tech, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO STATE at KENTUCKY...NMSU 4-4 vs. line away LY, improved from 3-13-1 spread mark away 2012-14. Stoops 4-15-1 last 20 vs. number since mid 2013.
Slight to UK, based on extended NMSU road woes.
TEXAS STATE at ARKANSAS...Withers impressive in debut win for TSU at Solich. Bobcats were 0-6 on road for Fran LY but were 4-0 in role the previous 2014. Bielema only 3-5 last 8 as home chalk.
Slight to Texas State, based on team trends.
OHIO at TENNESSEE...Solich was 2-1 as road dog LY but 1-8 as dog away from home previous two seasons. Solich 2-1 as DD dog in 2015 after 0-5 in role previous two years. Butch Jones only 7-10 as home chalk since arriving at UT in 2013.
Slight to Solich, based on team trends.
AKRON at MARSHALL...Zips 1-7 last 8 as DD dog since 2014. Marshall 13-5-1 as home chalk since 2013, 16-6-1 last 23 laying DD.
Marshall, based on team trends.
OREGON at NEBRASKA...Mike Riley lost his last 7 SU vs. Ducks when at OSU. Ducks were 5-0 vs. line as visitor LY and have covered 9 straight as visitor since early 2014. Riley just 4-10 vs. line at home (Oregon State & Huskers) since 2013, though 2-0 early in 2016.
Oregon, based on team trends.
UCLA at BYU...Bruins now 0-4 as dog since 2014. Favored team has covered last seven UCLA road games since mid 2014. Mora 2-8 vs. spread last ten non-Pac 12 games. Cougs 4-0-1 as home chalk since LY.
BYU, based on team trends.
MIAMI-FLA. at APPALACHIAN STATE...Canes 4-4 as road chalk since 2013. Richt was 10-8 as visiting chalk with Georgia 2011-15. App only 5-8 vs. spread at Boone since 2014.
Slight to Miami, based on team trends.
PITT at OKLAHOMA STATE...Narduzzi was 4-1 as reg season visiting dog LY. Panthers 6-3 vs. spread as visitor since late 2014. Gundy only 6-8 vs. line at Stillwater since 2014.
Pitt, based on team trends.
ULM at GEORGIA SOUTHERN...ULM was 6-6 as road dog past two seasons for Todd Berry, 4-5 as DD dog. Lost 51-31 at home vs. GaSo last season. Eagles 5-2 as DD chalk since LY.
Slight to GaSo, based on team trends.
ODU at NC STATE...Road team has covered last two. ODU 0-6 as DD dog since 2015. Pack good bully lately and 5-1 last six laying DD.
NCS, based on team trends.
TROY at SOUTHERN MISS...USM 11-4 vs. line since 2015, also 5-1 vs. spread at home that span. Also 6-0-1 last seven non-CUSA in reg season. Troy however 5-1 as road dog since LY for Neal Brown.
USM, based on recent trends.
SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-LAFAYETTE...Jags 3-0 as road chalk since 2014, though only 9-17-1 overall vs. spread that span. Ragin' Cajuns only 5-8-1 vs. spread since 2015 since 2013.
Slight to USA, based on recent ULL negatives.
KANSAS at MEMPHIS...KU actually improved a bit on the road for Beaty to 2-3 vs. line away LY after 6-15-1 spread mark away the previous four years. Jayhawks only 3-9 as dog since LY, however. Memphis 8-3 laying DD last two years at end of Fuente era, including 52-23 romp at Jayhawks LY.
Memphis, based on team trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at NOTRE DAME... First meeting since 2013. At that time, ND had won three straight in series, though MSU 5-2 vs. line last seven in series. If Dantonio a dog note 10-2 mark in role since 2012.
Michigan State, based on team trends.
TEXAS A&M at AUBURN...Malzahn has opened 2016 with two covers after 3-15 mark previous 18 vs. line. Road team has covered all four in series since Ags joined SEC in 2012. Auburn 1-8 last 9 as home chalk.
A&M, based on team and series trends.
DUKE at NORTHWESTERN... Cutcliffe 12-5 as dog 13-5-1 vs. spread away since 2013. Cats only 4-12 as Evanston chalk since 2013.
Duke, based on team trends.
OHIO STATE at OKLAHOMA... Urban 14-8 vs. line away from Big Horseshoe since 2012. Stoops only 15-16 vs. points at Norman since 2011.
Ohio State, based on team trends.
ALABAMA at OLE MISS...Rebs have won and covered last two vs. Bama, Hugh Freeze still 11-6 as dog with Rebs even after FSU loss. Freeze still 43-22-1 vs. line since 2011 at Ark State. Nick however has covered six straight as a visitor.
Slight to Ole Miss, based on recent series and team trends.
GEORGIA at MISSOURI...Georgia was 10-8 vs. spread its last 18 as visiting chalk for Richt. Mizzou now 4-10 vs. spread since last season though did cover vs. UGa in 2015.
Slight to Georgia, based on recent Mizzou woes.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at LSU...Dan Mullen has covered last two vs. LSU, and MSU 7-2-1 last 10 as SEC visitor in the days with Dak. Les Miles 8-3-1 as Baton Rouge chalk past two seasons.
Slight to MSU, based on recent trends.
NAVY at TULANE...Fritz 2-0 vs. line with Tulane, now 11-4 vs. spread last 15 since LY at GaSo. Wave was only 5-7 vs. line in new stadium past two seasons. Mids 20-12 vs. spread as visitor since 2010, 14-5 last 19 as visiting chalk. Wave covered at Annapolis LY.
Slight to Navy, based on team trends.
HAWAII at ARIZONA...UH just 4-9 as mainland dog past two seasons and 9-19 overall vs. spread since 2014, most of that with Norm Chow. Cats only 7-10 as chalk since 2014, but 5-2 laying DD past two years.
Slight to Arizona, based on team trends.
SOUTHERN CAL at STANFORD...Tree won and covered twice vs. SC LY. Trojans2-8 as dog away from Coliseum since 2013. Shaw 9-4 as Farm chalk 2014-15, though did blow game vs. Trojans in 2014.
Stanford, based on recent trends.
TEXAS at CALIFORNIA...Texas just 1-4 vs. line away LY though Horns might have turned the corner. Bears just 6-13 vs. line at home for Sonny Dykes (though distorted by 1-6 in 2013).
Texas, based on team trends.
BUFFALO at NEVADA... Leipold just 5-8 vs. line since LY for Bulls. Pack 8-6 as chalk past two seasons.
Slight to Nevada, based on team trends.
UTAH at SAN JOSE STATE... Utes 10-3 vs. spread away from home past two seasons, also 11-1 last 12 vs. spread against non-Pac 12. Though only 2-2 as road chalk past two seasons. Caragher just 2-13 as dog since 2014.
Utah, based on team trends.
IDAHO at WASHINGTON STATE... Though Leach only 1-3 laying DD since LY. He's still 11-4 vs. spread since 2015 even after EWU loss. Vandals 10-2 as visiting dog since 2014, 10-4 as DD dog that span.
Slight to Idaho, based on team trends.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 16, 2016 5:54:12 GMT -5
Best Bets - Week 3
There are some huge games on the college football schedule this week as potential playoff aspirations for the likes of Oklahoma and Notre Dame would be dashed with another loss.
Alabama is in Mississippi with double revenge after losing to Ole Miss the past two seasons, and we can't forget about the huge matchup between Florida State and Louisville.
Ranked vs. Ranked games typically generate the most headlines, but savvy college football bettors know that there is often much more value elsewhere on the board, and that's where I'm looking with this week's best bets.
Best Bet #1: Oklahoma State -4.5
By all accounts the Oklahoma State Cowboys got screwed out of a victory last week thanks to an improper application of a rule giving Central Michigan one untimed down. Central Michigan made the most of it with a Hail Mary-lateral play for the game winning TD, sparking a tremendous amount of controversy.
Even with the misapplication of the rules, Oklahoma State should have never put themselves in that position as they could have simply ran around the field on their 4th down play for 4 seconds to run out the clock, rather than simply chuck it up and get the intentional grounding flag.
It was poor game management by the entire OK State staff and players, and bettors are already looking to go against them this week (line has moved from -6.5 to current number) after that type of defeat.
However, going the other way and backing OK State is the better bet here as this team knows they were wronged and are anxious to take out their frustrations on somebody. Enter Pittsburgh, fresh off a 3-point victory over old rival Penn State.
Pittsburgh's offense surprised many by putting up 42 points on the Nittany Lions a week ago (the total in that game was 44), but they'll have a tough time matching points with a high-powered Cowboys team that is pissed off.
Pittsburgh is on an 0-4 ATS run in non-conference games and have a 1-4 ATS run going when coming off a win.
Stylistically this is a very tough matchup for Pitt and when you add in the mindset of this OK State team right now, expect the Cowboys to rattle off a double digit victory here.
Best Bet #2: California +7.5
Cal finally gets to play a home game this year after opening up the campaign in Australia a few weeks ago and losing (but covering) in San Diego State last week.
The Golden Bears welcome in a Texas team that has been a great story in CFB so far this year, but this is an absolutely brutal spot for the Longhorns to be laying more than a TD.
Texas has put up 91 points in their two victories so far and this game should be another high-scoring game. The Longhorns do have the revenge angle in their favor after losing 45-44 in a wild game vs. Cal last season, but with this being the start of a three-game road trip for Texas with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma on deck, there is a solid chance Texas has one eye on opening up their conference schedule next week.
If this game was in the -3.5 to -4.5 range the tune might be a little different, but Texas laying -7.5 points here is simply too much.
Texas is just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road, and last week's cover vs. UTEP was just the third time in the past 12 games that Texas has won ATS after scoring 40+ points.
The Longhorns put up 40 points in last week's victory so that same negative scenario applies here.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 16, 2016 5:55:16 GMT -5
Alabama at Ole Miss
The moment Alabama fans have been waiting for has nearly arrived. Amid the greatness of its eight straight seasons with 10 wins or more, which has included four national titles and seven years of 12 wins or better, there has emerged a new nemesis.
This fresh challenger of sorts has bitten the beast in the backside in two consecutive seasons. It goes by the name of Ole Miss and is led by the school’s best coach since the one whose name adorns the stadium, Johnny Vaught, who led the Rebels to a 190-61-12 record from 1947-1970 (and the last eight games of 1973 after his successor was fired).
His name is Hugh Freeze, who took over for Houston Nutt in 2012 after 4-8 and 2-10 campaigns in 2010 and 2011. Freeze was born and raised in Oxford and has led Ole Miss on a steady rise from the moment he set foot on campus.
In Year 1, he led the Rebels to a postseason invite and a subsequent 38-17 win over Pittsburgh at the Compass Bowl. In ’13, they improved to 8-5 and downed Ga. Tech 25-17 at the Music City Bowl. Then in ’14, Freeze’s program really arrived, starting 7-0 and climbing to No. 3 in the national rankings, the highest status for the program at that late stage of the season in nearly 50 years.
Along the way, Ole Miss stunned Alabama 23-17 in comeback fashion at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Freeze’s bunch was a legit contender to participate in the first College Football Playoff, but a late interception while in field-goal range thwarted its last drive in a 10-7 loss at LSU. Two weeks later, the season was lost at home against Auburn when star WR Laquon Treadwell’s late go-ahead TD was reversed by replace officials.
Treadwell had fumbled at the goal line when a hit by an Auburn defender knocked the ball loose and broke Treadwell’s leg. In an instant, hopes of a first SEC West title in the program’s history were dashed and one of the team’s best players had to be carted off the field with a gruesome injury.
The hangover effect resulted in a loss at Arkansas two weeks later. Then after a nice bounce-back win over fourth-ranked Mississippi State. to ruin the arch rival’s shot at a CFP berth, Ole Miss took a beatdown from TCU at The Peach Bowl to finish 9-4.
Once again last year, Ole Miss was in the mix to get to the SEC Championship Game for the first time. Despite losses at Florida and at Memphis, the Rebels were in control of their own destiny thanks to a September win at Alabama by a 43-37 count as 6.5-point underdogs. But when Arkansas came to Oxford, it captured a 53-52 overtime win thanks to a wild first-down conversion on a fourth-and-long play that involved a crazy lateral, in addition to catching a break with a face-mask call to extend the winning drive in OT.
Nevertheless, Ole Miss still finished 10-3, won the Egg Bowl for a second straight season and went to its first Sugar Bowl in decades where it smashed Oklahoma State, 48-20. Freeze was the toast of the town, continuing to recruit at a level never seen before from Ole Miss in the modern era.
And then the NFL Draft happened. On a night that should’ve been a celebration of the program’s accomplishments on Freeze’s watch with three of its players being selected in the first round, instead turned into a debacle of epic proportions live on national television. Without getting into all of the sordid details, let’s simply note that Laremy Tunsil’s social media accounts were hacked, with one of them displaying copy-and-pasted text messages from Tunsil to a member of Freeze’s staff requesting cash to pay for his mother’s bills.
When asked about this during a televised interview after being drafted by the Dolphins, Tunsil answered, “I would have to say yes” to the question of whether or not he was paid while playing for the Rebels. Shortly after that answer, an assistant for the agent (Jimmie Sexton) who represents both Freeze and Tunsil ushered him off the stage and suddenly cut off all questions from the assembled media.
These developments put a major stain on Freeze’s reputation immediately. The program was already under investigation and Freeze’s success on the recruiting trail had already been called into question by many rival schools. Freeze was suddenly under a microscope for all the wrong reasons.
After the dust settled somewhat, he appeared on The Paul Finebaum Show less than two weeks later. Freeze’s mantra was and continues to be that he can’t discuss the specifics of the Tunsil situation because that part of the investigation hasn’t been completed, but he’s insisted that he’s done nothing wrong and that his program will survive this negativity.
That remains to be seen. Whatever the case, Ole Miss (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) had to be thrilled to put the tumultuous offseason behind it and get on the field. That certainly seemed to be the case when it jumped all over Florida State for a commanding 28-6 lead late in the second quarter of the season opener in Orlando.
However, the Seminoles trimmed the deficit to 28-13 with 28 ticks left before halftime on a 16-yard TD pass from Deondre Francois to Travis Rudolph. Then on FSU’s opening drive to start the second half, it pulled to within 12 with a 40-yard field goal. Ole Miss promptly committed a turnover and several plays later FSU cashed in with a one-yard TD run from Freddie Stevenson.
Just two plays later, another Ole Miss turnover gave FSU the ball in great field position with a chance to take the lead. Jimbo Fisher’s team did just that on a short TD run by Kermit Whitfield for a 29-28 advantage less than six minutes into the third quarter. The ‘Noles would extend the lead to 39-28 before the Rebels finally answered with 12:09 remaining.
Chad Kelly’s 20-yard TD pass to Van Jefferson cut the deficit to 39-34, but the two-point conversion attempt failed. Ole Miss was still within one possession after an FSU field goal, but its offense couldn’t counter. A late field goal provided the final points for the ‘Noles in their 45-34 win as five-point favorites. The 79 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57.5-point total.
Kelly completed 21-of-39 passes for 313 yards and four TDs, but he was intercepted three times and also lost a fumble. He didn’t get any help from the running game and spent the entire second half under extreme pressure. Evan Engram hauled in nine receptions for 121 yards and one TD.
In Week 2, the Rebels bounced back with a 38-13 win over Wofford, though they failed to take the cash as 43-point home ‘chalk.’ The 51 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 56.5-point total.
Kelly connected on 20-of-27 throws for 219 yards and three TDs without an interception. Akeem Judd ran for a team-high 64 yards on 11 carries, as the running game showed a pulse with a 5.1 YPC average.
As of late Thursday, most books had Alabama (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) installed as an 11-point favorite with a total of 55 points. The Rebels were available on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330). As for first-half wagers, the Crimson Tide were favored by 6.5 points with a 28-point tally.
Alabama remained undefeated at Jerry World in the season opener by smashing Southern Cal 52-6 as a 13.5-point favorite. The 58 combined points surged ‘over’ the 51.5-point total.
USC drew first blood with a 47-yard field goal on its opening drive, but Nick Saban’s team would rip off 38 unanswered points. True freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts found ArDarius Stewart for a 39-yard scoring strike with 7:46 remaining in the second quarter to put ‘Bama ahead 7-3. The Tide would tack on an Adam Griffith 29-yard field goal with 3:26 left until halftime. Then several plays later, Marlon Humphrey extended Alabama’s advantage to 17-3 at intermission with an 18-yard interception return for a TD.
Things got ugly fast in the third quarter. Hurts found Stewart again for a 71-yard TD pass less than 90 seconds into the third quarter and the blowout was on from there. Hurts would add rushing scores from six and seven yards out. He accounted for four TDs in his collegiate debut, throwing for 118 yards on 6-of-11 passing. Hurts rushed nine times for 32 yards. Damien Harris ran nine times for a team-best 138 yards.
Alabama’s defense was as nasty as usual, limiting the Trojans to 194 yards of total offense. Jeremy Pruitt’s unit held USC to 64 rushing yards on 30 attempts for a pedestrian 2.1 yards-per-carry average.
In Week 2, Alabama had its home opener against Western Ky. It was a vintage sandwich situation with USC in the rearview mirror and Ole Miss on deck. Bettors either won or lost depending on when they place their wager – at least for the side. The Tide opened as a 28.5-point ‘chalk’ versus the Hilltoppers and the number spent most of the week in the 28-29 range. Only within the 80 minutes prior to kick did most books adjust the line to south of 28 and it closed at 27.
Therefore, late ‘Bama backers cashed a winner in the 38-10 win. The 48 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 60-point total. Hurts completed 23-of-36 passes for 287 yards and two TDs without an interception. Calvin Ridley had nine receptions for 129 yards and one TD, while Stewart hauled in five catches for 90 yards and one TD. Eddie Jackson’s 55-yard pick-six gave the Tide a 17-3 lead at halftime.
Despite the victory, Saban wasn’t impressed. He had to be concerned with the play of his offensive line, which was only able to carve holes for 124 rushing yards on 39 carries (3.2 YPC). His team was also penalized 12 times for 84 yards. Those results prompted an “ass-chewing” for offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin.
Since Saban took over in 2007, Alabama owns a 21-14 spread record as a road favorite, going 4-0 in its last four such situations.
Ole Miss has been a home underdog seven times during Freeze’s tenure, producing a 5-2 spread record with three outright wins. The Rebels have been double-digit home ‘dogs three times, going 2-1 ATS with one victory over LSU in ’13 as 10-point puppies.
When these schools met at Bryant-Denny Stadium last year, Kelly completed 18-of-33 passes for 341 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also had a four-yard TD run. Kelly’s third scoring strike to Treadwell gave the Rebels a 43-24 lead with 10:02 remaining. The Tide would mount a desperate rally, only to come up short.
Kickoff in Oxford is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Despite the emergence of the ‘over’ in last year’s meeting, the ‘under’ has still hit at a 6-2 clip in the last eight Alabama-Ole Miss encounters.
-- LSU owns an 8-4-1 spread record in its last 13 games as a home favorite. Mississippi State is 9-11 ATS in 20 games as a road underdog during Dan Mullen’s eight-year tenure. The Tigers will host the Bulldogs on Saturday at Tiger Stadium on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. LSU has won 15 of the last 16 head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals, but Mississippi State won 34-29 as a nine-point underdog its last trip to Baton Rouge. Mullen’s team covered the spread but came out on the wrong end of a 21-19 decision as a four-point home underdog against LSU in Starkville last season.
-- According to Jim McElwain’s comments after Wednesday’s practice, Florida star sophomore WR Antonio Callaway is ‘highly questionable to doubtful’ for Saturday’s home game vs. North Texas. McElwain should and I assume will rest Callaway in order for him to be as close to 100 percent as possible for next week’s trip to Swamp North in Knoxville for a crucial SEC East showdown against Tennessee. The Gators have beaten the Volunteers 11 consecutive times.
-- Texas A&M owns a 3-6 spread record in nine games as a road ‘dog on Kevin Sumlin’s watch. Meanwhile, Auburn has posted an 8-11 spread record as a home ‘chalk’ since Gus Malzahn took over. The Tigers had failed to cover in eight consecutive games as home favorites until taking the cash in last week’s 51-14 win over Arkansas State when they were favored by 20.5 points. As of late Thursday, most spots had Auburn favored by 3.5 points over the Aggies, who have won outright on both trips to Auburn since joining the SEC. ESPN will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
-- Kentucky’s Mark Stoops is feeling the heat after his program lost for the 30th straight time to Florida this past Saturday. The Wildcats fell 45-7 and only dodged the cream-cheese treatment by scoring against back-ups late in the fourth quarter. We should note, however, that Stoops does have a $12 million buyout if UK chooses to part ways with him. His team is a 21.5-point home favorite this week vs. New Mexico State. The Aggies will probably be without star RB Larry Rose, who is still recovering from sports hernia surgery and has yet to play this year. Rose was the Sun Belt Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year last season when he rushed for 1,651 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC.
-- Vanderbilt is a 6.5-point underdog Saturday at Georgia Tech. The Commodores bounced back from its 13-10 season-opening home loss to South Carolina by beating Middle Tennessee 47-24 as three-point home ‘chalk.’ Junior RB Ralph Webb was the catalyst with 211 rushing yards and two TDs on 29 carries. Since Derek Mason took over at Vandy, the ‘Dores have compiled a 6-4 spread record as a road underdog.
-- As of late Thursday, most spots had Georgia listed as a 6.5-point favorite at Missouri. In its last trip to Columbia, UGA dominated the Tigers in a 34-0 blowout as a three-point road favorite. When they collided between the hedges in Athens last year, the Bulldogs won a 9-6 defensive struggle with the Tigers easily covering the number as 15.5-point road underdogs. After dropping its season opener 26-11 at West Virginia, Missouri rolled past Eastern Michigan 61-21 as a 23-point home favorite last week. QB Drew Lock threw for 450 yards and five TDs without an interception. Lock is currently fifth in the nation in passing yards (730).
-- The ‘under’ has cashed at a 12-2 clip in Missouri’s last 14 games.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 16, 2016 5:57:27 GMT -5
'CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes'
Ohio State at Oklahoma September 17, 7:20 EST
Sooners historically dominant in Norman winning seven consecutive games, eighteen of its last twenty-one in front of the home audience have opened 3.0 point home underdogs. Oklahoma's solid home field advantage no need overthinking this one. Take the points knowing Sooners are a profitable 7-1-1 against the betting line as regular season pups if 3.5 or less.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi Rebels September 17, 3:30 EST
Defending National Champion Alabama spanking Southern California 52-6 as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorites in the season opener followed it up with a not so impressive 38-10 victory over Western Kentucky as 27.0 point home chalk. Next up for Tide, a trip to Oxford as 9.5 point road favorites to take on Mississippi Rebels. Tide have won 10 of the past 12 meetings (4-8 ATS) but 'Ole Miss' dealt ‘Bama' its only loss last year, 43-37 catching 9 points on the road and also handed Crimson Tide its only regular season loss the prevoius year a 23-17 win in front of the home audience as 5.5 point underdogs. Rebels 5-1 ATS as home underdogs, Crimson Tide 2-8-1 ATS laying 7 to 10 on the road, 4-5-1 ATS last ten as road chalk vs the Conference you bet Nick Saban's troops at some risk
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