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Post by Makers on Aug 17, 2020 5:57:17 GMT -5
Nuggets-Jazz. News broke yesterday that Jazz starting point guard Mike Conley (14.4 PPG, 4.4 APG) left the bubble to witness the birth of his son. He is expected to return at some point during the playoffs, but will have to quarantine for a minimum of 4 days. With Conley likely to miss at least a portion of the series, the Nuggets have moved from -220 favorites to -278 favorites at BetMGM. This signals an implied probability shift of 68.8% to 73.5%. The Jazz moved from + 160 to + 220. Smart money has also made an appearance in the Rockets-Thunder series price. This was already the shortest and most competitive price of any series. The Rockets opened as -182 favorites and the Thunder a + 150 dog. Pro money has grabbed OKC, dropping Houston to -152 and the Thunder to + 120. Houston star Russell Westbrook will miss game one with a quad injury. One thing to keep in mind with series prices is that the public is psychologically biased toward wanting to bet teams with big plus money payouts. Simply put, they want to get rich quick and bet a little to win a lot. However, pros don't automatically gravitate to plus-money dogs. Instead, they look for value, oftentimes on favorites that are underpriced. They have no problem laying a minus number if they think it's short. One good example is the Boston Celtics -400 against the 76ers (+ 300). This translates to an 80% probability. With no Ben Simmons and a streaking, healthy Boston team, some sharps believe this price is lower than it should be. Another buy-low opportunity is the Lakers -455 vs the Blazers (+ 340). Los Angeles played terribly in the bubble and public perception says they're vulnerable. Meanwhile, the Blazers were the talk of the restart and Damian Lillard lit the world on fire. This creates a perfect buy low, sell high opportunity to bet the Lakers, who would likely be much bigger favorites if not for the circumstances of the past two weeks. Today we have four NBA games on tap. We also have 13 MLB games and 4 NHL games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 1:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz (44-28) vs Denver Nuggets (46-27)
This is the first game of the day and the first game of the NBA playoffs. The Nuggets enter as the 3-seed while the Jazz are the 6-seed. Both teams went 3-5 in the bubble restart. This line opened with the Nuggets listed as 3-point favorites. Pro money immediately poured in on Denver laying the points in the wake of the Conley news, driving the line all the way up to -5. That's when some value-minded sharp buyback hit the market at Jazz + 5, which has since settled the line down to 4.5. The public is all over Denver to the tune of roughly 75% of bets. This means Utah is offering contrarian value with an inflated line. The public is also taking the over. However, after opening at 217.5, smart money has hit the under and dropped the line down to 215.5. 7:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (8-11) at Atlanta Braves (13-10)
This NL East showdown features two teams playing well in recent days. The Nationals just took two of three against the surprisingly feisty Orioles. Meanwhile, the Braves are riding a two-game winning streak at the hands of the division rival Marlins. Both of today's starting pitchers own high ERAs. The Nats will start Anibal Sanchez (0-3, 9.69 ERA) and the Braves counter with Touki Toussaint (0-1, 7.27 ERA). The Braves opened as short -125 home favorites and the Nats a + 115 dog. Two thirds of bets are laying the price with Atlanta. However, it's not just public money. Sharps have steamed the Braves all the way up to -140. Favorites are winning at roughly a 65% clip this season. 8 p.m. ET: Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes
The Bruins lead this best-of-seven series 2-1 after earning a gutsy 3-1 win in Game 3 as + 100 dogs. This Game 4 line opened with Boston listed as a short -110 favorite and the Hurricanes a + 100 dog. Pros have gotten down hard on Boston, driving the Bruins up to -125. Some books are closer to -130. There are a couple of injury notes to keep in mind here. The Hurricanes will be without top-line scorer Andrei Svechnikov, who is likely to miss the rest of the series with a leg injury. Bruins sniper David Pastrnak remains a game-time decision with an undisclosed injury. Boston will once again turn to Jaroslav Halak in goal after starter Tuukka Rask opted out prior to Game 3. Halak gave up one goal and made 29 saves in the Game 3 win.
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Post by Makers on Aug 18, 2020 5:09:07 GMT -5
All major U.S. sports: favorites went 20-1 SU as the chalk was 4-0 in the opening day of the #NBA playoffs, 4-0 in NHL's playoff games & 12-1 in MLB; chalk parlays were incredibly profitable for bettors on Monday.
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Post by Makers on Aug 18, 2020 5:12:49 GMT -5
The Nuggets-Jazz game was the epitome of a bad beat if you were a Jazz backer. Denver opened -3, got steamed up to -5 and then sharp buyback hit Utah + 5, dropping the line down to 4.5. Utah held several late game leads, but then the game went to overtime where the Nuggets outscored the Jazz 20-10 in the extra frame to win by ten. Tuesday5:30 p.m. ET: Calgary Flames vs Dallas Stars
This best-of-seven series is tied 2-2. The Stars are coming off a miracle victory in Game 4 in which they scored with 12-seconds left in regulation to tie the game and then scored in overtime to win 5-4. This pivotal Game 5 line opened with Dallas listed as a -120 favorite and Calgary a + 105 dog. Sharp action has come down on Dallas, pushing the Stars up to -125. Some books are inching closer to -130. One advantage for Dallas is the fact they're listed as the home team, which means they get the benefit of having the last line change. Two key injuries to monitor: Matthew Tkachuk of the Flames and goaltender Ben Bishop of the Stars. Both missed Game 4 and are considered game-time decisions. 7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (14-9) at New York Yankees (16-6)
This AL East showdown in the Bronx features two of the top four teams in the American League. The red-hot Rays have won two in a row and eight of their last nine. Meanwhile, the equally hot Yankees have won six straight and just swept the Red Sox. In a stellar pitching matchup, the Rays send lefty Blake Snell (1-0, 2.08 ERA) to the mound to face Yankee veteran Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 2.31 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a short -110 home favorite and Tampa an even money + 100 dog. Smart money has come down hard on the Rays, pushing Tampa from a + 100 dog to a -112 favorite. Road favorites are cashing at roughly 65% this season. Sharp action has also hit the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8. 8 p.m. ET : Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders The Islanders hold a 3-0 series lead and have a chance to sweep the Caps in this one. New York has outscored Washington by a combined score of 11-5, cashing tickets as dogs each time (+ 115, + 105 and -105). This pivotal Game 4 line opened at a true pick'em with both sides listed at -105. The public is all over Washington because the Caps won the Cup in 2018 and "can't possibly" be swept by the lowly Islanders. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Washington, this line moved to Islanders -110. Some books are up to Isles -115. This signals sharp action rejecting the Gambler's Fallacy and backing the Isles to finish off the Caps.
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brymel2
Premium Member
Posts: 2,526
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Post by brymel2 on Aug 18, 2020 12:27:11 GMT -5
All major U.S. sports: favorites went 20-1 SU as the chalk was 4-0 in the opening day of the #NBA playoffs, 4-0 in NHL's playoff games & 12-1 in MLB; chalk parlays were incredibly profitable for bettors on Monday. Saw a bunch of this on twitter with so many tools showing their multi-team / multi-sport parlays cash their ridiculous parlays with hefty payouts. Sunday had a lot of MLB favorites winning too.
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Post by Makers on Aug 20, 2020 5:15:30 GMT -5
NBA underdogs posted their second straight winning day on Wednesday, going 3-1 ATS with a pair of outright victories. The Jazz upended the Nuggets 124-105 as + 3.5 dogs, cashing + 145 on the moneyline. Later in the night, the Mavericks took down the Clippers 127-114 as 5-point dogs (+ 185 on the moneyline). Both teams were blueprint examples of sharp reverse line moves. Utah fell from + 4 to + 3.5 and Dallas fell from + 6 to + 5 despite both teams receiving less than half of spread tickets. The other dogs to cover were the Nets, who lost to the Raptors 104-99 but easily covered the + 11.5. Brooklyn received a sharp line freeze. They only received one-third of tickets but the line didn't budge off the + 11.5. Anytime you see lopsided betting on one side but the line doesn't move, that signals liability and a reluctance by the books to hand out a better number to bettors backing the unpopular side. The lone favorite to cover was the Celtics. They demolished the 76ers 128-101. Sharp action was leaning Philadelphia in that one, dropping the 76ers from + 5.5 to + 4.5, all to no avail. Overs went 3-1 yesterday. Overs are now 7-5 in the playoffs thus far. Today, we have another loaded all-day sweat with 4 NBA games, 14 MLB games and 2 NHL games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 1 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers
The Heat lead this best-of-seven series 1-0. Miami won the opener 113-101, covering as 4-point favorites. The under 216 cashed by the skin of its teeth. This Game 2 line opened with the Heat listed as 5-point favorites. The public sees another win and cover for Miami. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line drop to 4.5. Some books are even down to 4. This is a clear example of sharp reverse-line movement on the dog with pros getting down hard on the Pacers + 5. We've also seen some action hit the total. It opened at 214.5 and has been bet up to 215 behind a combination of both Pro and Joe over money. Indiana guard Victor Oladipo is questionable with an eye injury but expected to play. 3:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (14-10) at Colorado Rockies (13-11)
The Astros posted their third straight victory over the Rockies last night, crushing Colorado 13-6 as -140 favorites. Houston will now go for the 4-game sweep in Thursday's series finale. The Astros will send out Cristian Javier (2-1, 2.91 ERA) while the Rockies counter with German Marquez (2-3, 2.25 ERA). This line opened Colorado listed as a short -114 home favorite and Houston a + 104 dog. The public is once again all over Houston, who is red-hot and riding a 7-game win streak. However, smart money has poured in on Colorado, pushing the Rockies from -114 all the way up to -130. Favorites are cashing at roughly a 65% clip this season. The Astros are 13-4 as a favorite but 0-6 as a dog this season. 7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (11-11) at Minnesota Twins (16-9)These Interleague foes have split the first two games of this series. Minnesota won the opener 4-3 as -147 favorites and then the Brewers bounced back last night with a 9-3 win as juicy + 145 dogs. Milwaukee received sharp reverse line movement, falling from + 155 to + 145 despite receiving only one-third of bets. In tonight's rubber game, the Brewers will start Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 3.16 ERA) and the Twins counter with Jose Berrios (1-3, 5.92 ERA). Minnesota opened as a -130 home favorite and the Brewers a + 120 dog. Pro money has poured in on road dog Milwaukee, dropping the line to Twins -115, Bewers + 105. There also appears to be some liability on a higher-scoring game as the total is listed at 8.5 over -120.
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Post by Makers on Aug 21, 2020 6:34:31 GMT -5
After NBA underdogs ripped off a 5-1-1 ATS run on Tuesday and Wednesday, favorites got their revenge on Thursday going a p erfect 4-0 ATS. The Heat (-4) took down the Pacers 109-100. The Rockets (-2) dismantled the Thunder 111-98. The Bucks (-13.5) brushed aside the Magic 111-96. And the Lakers (-6.5) crushed the Blazers 111-88. Unders swept the board with a perfect 4-0.
The Bucks and Lakers were particularly notable covers as both fit the "fade the trendy dog" sharp contrarian blueprint. After both No. 1 seeds suffered embarrassing losses in their series debuts, the public was down on them and emboldened to bet against them. However, both received sharp line moves in their favor. The Bucks moved from -12.5 to -13.5 despite receiving less than half the tickets. Then the Lakers moved from -6 to -6.5 despite two-thirds of bets taking the Blazers and the points. A line moving toward a favorite isn't notable. It's the fact that the public was betting against Milwaukee and Los Angeles yet the line moved in their favor that was noteworthy. It signaled wiseguy money in their favor. Remember, this time of year is all about overreaction and recency bias. The Bucks and Lakers came off bad losses so the public automatically says fade them. This creates an opportunity for brave, value-minded contrarian bettors to buy low on bad news and go the other way. Today we have another loaded all-day sweat with 4 NBA games, 15 MLB games and 2 NHL games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 7:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (9-12) at Atlanta Braves (14-11)
The Phillies have dropped three in a row, including a pair of losses in yesterday's doubleheader to the Blue Jays. The Braves are coming off a day of rest after their series finale with the Nationals was rained out. Previously, Atlanta has won three of their last four games. Tonight's series opener features an impressive pitching duel with Phillies ace Aaron Nola (2-1, 2.05 ERA) facing Braves stud lefty Max Fried (3-0, 1.24 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short -110 home favorite and Philadelphia an even money + 100 dog. T wo thirds of bets are backing the Braves, who have a better record and are at home. However, we've seen this line flip to Philadelphia, pushing the Phillies from a dog to a favorite (+ 100 to -110). This signals sharp steam hitting Bryce Harper and company. Road favorites like Philly are hitting at roughly a 67% clip this season. These teams have split four matchups this season. The Braves are 12-2 as a favorite but 1-8 as a dog. 8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (10-12) at St. Louis Cardinals (6-7)
The Cardinals stormed back with 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Reds 5-4 as + 125 underdogs. It was an awful bad beat for anyone who took Cincinnati -135. Tonight, the Reds send Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 6.23 ERA) to the mound to face Cardinals righty Dakota Hudson (0-2, 5.40 ERA). This game opened with the Reds listed as short -120 road favorites and the Cardinals a + 110 home dog. Smart money has come down on St. Louis, dropping the Cards from + 110 to even money + 100. The Cardinals have value as a divisional dog with a high total. Liability appears to be on a higher scoring game as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced up to -115. 9:45 p.m. ET: St. Louis Blues vs Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks lead this best-of-seven series 3-2 after securing a 4-3 win as + 120 dogs in Game 5. Vancouver now has a chance to eliminate the defending Stanley Cup champs. This Game 6 line opened with St. Louis listed as a -127 favorite and Vancouver a + 117 dog. Respected money has come down on the Blues to stay alive, pushing the line up to St. Louis -135. Teams with postseason experience off a loss playing teams who missed the postseason the previous year have been a profitable bet historically, including 8-5 (62%) this season. The total is 5 with heavy -135 juice on the over. These teams have combined for six goals or more in three of five games this series.
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Post by Makers on Aug 22, 2020 6:03:15 GMT -5
For the second straight day, NBA favorites swept the board with a perfect 4-0 ATS showing. The Jazz (-1) crushed the Nuggets 124-87. The Raptors (-11) handled the Nets 117-92. The Celtics (-6) outlasted the 76ers 102-94. And the Clippers (-5.5) edged the Mavericks 130-122. Favorites are now 8-0 ATS over the past two days and an absurd 14-5-1 ATS (73.7%) in the playoffs.
The Jazz were a perfect example of a sharp play. The Nuggets opened as a 1.5-point favorite. Two-thirds of bets were laying the points with Denver, yet the line completely flipped to Utah -1. This is a classic dog-to-favorite reverse line move. Think of it this way: if the public was already betting Denver at -1.5, why would the oddsmakers drop the line to hand out a better number to Average Joes who are already in their favor? Anytime the line moves away from the popular side and toward the unpopular side, it's almost always the result of smart money. If a line looks fishy, there is a reason for it.
In the same vein, we must also offer condolences to anyone brave enough to bet the 76ers plus the points last night. In one of the most lopsided playoff games in recent memory, nearly eight-out-of-10 bets backed the Celtics, who opened at -5 and closed at -6. This meant that the 76ers had incredible contrarian value plus an inflated line. Philadelphia held a 94-92 lead with under 2 minutes left in regulation, but then Boston scored 10 straight points to end the game with a 104-92 win and cover. Talk about an awful bad beat for Philly backers.
Unders went 3-1 on Friday. They are 7-1 over the past two days and are now 12-8 (60%) in the playoffs. The under trend isn't surprising given the fact that we are now in the postseason and teams are putting more emphasis on defense. Plus, the public is biased toward wanting to bet overs and root for points anyway, so you are automatically in a valuable position to go contrarian and take unders with artificially inflated lines.
Today, we have a day off from hockey but we still have 5 NHL games and 15 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
4:05 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (9-18) at Baltimore Orioles (12-14)
Don't look now but the Red Sox are finally putting together a win streak. After dropping nine straight games, Boston has now won three in a row. The Sox have taken the first two games of this series, cashing 7-1 as -150 favorites on Thursday and winning 8-5 as -125 favorites on Friday. In the third game of this four-game set, the Red Sox will start lefty Martin Perez (2-3, 4.07 ERA) against Orioles veteran Alex Cobb (1-2, 3.76 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a short -115 road favorite and Baltimore a + 105 home dog. Pro money has come down on the Sox, driving this line up to Boston -120. Road favorites are cashing at roughly a 67% clip this season. After an impressive start, the Orioles have come back down to Earth and dropped six straight.
9:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (10-15) at Seattle Mariners (9-19)
The Mariners upset the Rangers 7-4 in last night's series opener, cashing as + 115 underdogs. Tonight, Texas sends Jordan Lyles (1-2, 7.52 ERA) to the mound to face Seattle lefty Justus Sheffield (1-2, 4.12 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as -125 favorites and the Rangers a + 115 dog. The public sees two teams with losing records and doesn't know who to take. The Rangers are appealing because they're getting plus money. But the Mariners are a home favorite with a short price coming off a win. However, despite tickets being split, this line had jumped up to Mariners -130. Some books are closer to -135. This signals respected money coming down on Seattle at home. Favorites are cashing at roughly 65% this year. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115 or -120 depending on the book, signaling liability on a lower-scoring game.
9:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (15-11) at San Diego Padres (16-12)
The Padres took care of business last night, beating the Astros 4-3 as -125 home favorites. It marked the 5th straight win for San Diego and snapped an 8-game winning streak for Houston. In tonight's second game of the series, Houston will start Brandon Bielak (3-0, 1.69 ERA) against San Diego veteran Zach Davies (3-2, 3.25 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as short -118 home favorites and the Astros a + 108 road dog. Smart money has quickly come down San Diego, pushing the line up to Padres -125. Respected action has also hit the over, pushing the total up from 8.5 to 9. The wind is expected to blow out to right center at 5-8 MPH. San Diego is 13-8 as a favorite this season while Houston is 1-7 as a dog.
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Post by Makers on Aug 23, 2020 6:45:08 GMT -5
Favorites are now 16-6-1 ATS (72.7%) in the playoffs, including 10-1-1 ATS over the past three days. Unders are 13-11 (54.2%). Today we have a loaded slate with 4 NBA games, 2 NHL games and 14 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics
The Celtics lead this best- of-seven series 3-0. Boston has won and covered all three games: 109-101 as 6.5-point favorites, 128-101 as 4.5-point favorites and most recently 102-94 as 6-point favorites. This Game 4 line opened with the Celtics listed as 8-point favorites, the largest spread of the series thus far. The public is once again backing Boston and fading Philadelphia. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line remain frozen at 8. Normally, the books will adjust the line further toward the popular side to entice betting on the opponent, thereby limiting their risk. Instead, we are seeing a sharp line freeze indicating a reluctance of the books to hand out a better number to brave contrarian 76ers backers. In other words, all liability appears to be on Philadelphia plus the points. Don't be surprised to see this line fall to 7.5. 3:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks
The Clippers lead this series 2-1 after posting a 130-122 victory in Game 3. Los Angeles has been favored in all three games: -6.5, -5 and -5. This spread opened up much higher with the Clippers listed as 8.5-point or 9-point favorites depending on the book. Three-out-of-four bets are laying the points with Los Angeles, yet we've seen this line fall to 7.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the underdog Mavs, with pros scooping up Dallas at + 9, + 8.5, + 8 and + 7.5. One big variable here is the health of star Luka Doncic. He is considered a game-time decision with an ankle injury. The total opened at 231.5 and has been bet up to 232.5. The over is 2-1 in this series with point totals of 228, 241 and 252. 9 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz
After dropping the opener to the Nuggets in overtime, the Jazz has won two in a row to take a 2-1 series lead. Utah is coming off a commanding 124-87 win in Game 3 as 1-point favorites. This coincided with Mike Conley's return to the team after the birth of his son. In this pivotal Game 4, the Jazz opened as a 3-point favorite. The public is split and doesn't know which way to go. They like what they've seen out of Utah lately, but also still love the trendy Nuggets, especially now that they're getting points in a "bounce back" spot off of a loss. However, despite tickets being 50/50, we've seen this line move to Utah -3.5. This signals pro money hitting Utah at -3. The total has also taken in some sharp action, rising from 215 to 216 behind some smart over money. The over is 2-1 this series, with point totals of 260, 229 and most recently 211.
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Post by Makers on Aug 24, 2020 6:15:36 GMT -5
After an absurd chalk stretch that extended most of last week, NBA underdogs barked back on Sunday with a 3-1 ATS record. The most thrilling dog cover (and straight up win) came from the Mavericks. Luka Doncic heroically overcame a sprained ankle to score 43-points, including a last-second buzzer-beating three, to beat the Clippers 135-133 in overtime. Sharps were all over the Mavericks. They only received a third of spread bets but took in sharp reverse line movement + 8.5 to + 7.5. The Mavs cashed + 260 on the moneyline. Two other dogs covered thanks to epic last-second three pointers that were meaningless to the final score but massive for bettors. They were also awful bad beats to those who laid the points with the favorites. The Celtics led the 76ers 110-103 but then Joel Embiid hit a three with 2 seconds left to make it 110-103, giving 76ers ticket holders a back-door cover. Wiseguys were hitting Philly all day, dropping the 76ers from + 8 to + 7.5. Then the same thing happened in the late game. The Jazz led 129-124 and then Jamal Murray hit a three as time expired to make it 129-127, giving Nuggets spread bettors a thrilling last-second cover. Denver opened + 3 and closed + 3.5. The only favorite to cover was the Raptors. They obliterated the Nets 150-122 as 14-point favorites.\\ 6:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (11-11) at Washington Nationals (11-14)
This is the final game of this extended five-game series. Both teams have earned a pair of wins thus far. Washington is coming off a 9-3 win over the Marlins on Sunday as -145 favorites. Tonight's pitching matchup pits Miami's Pablo Lopez (2-1, 2.42 ERA) against Washington's Austin Voth (0-2, 5.00 ERA). The Nats opened as -130 home favorites and the Fish a + 120 underdog. We've seen a huge sharp adjustment toward the road dog, with Washington dropping to -115 and Miami + 105. The Marlins have value as a road divisional dog with a high total (9.5). Some books are juicing up the over 9.5 to -115. The forecast calls for mid-80s and 5-8 MPH winds out to right center. Both teams are profitable to the over this year with Miami 12-10 and Washington 14-11. 6:30 p.m. ET: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat
The Heat lead this best-of-seven series 3-0 and can sweep the Pacers with a victory tonight. Miami has won and covered in all three games thus far, with spreads of -4, -4 and -5. This pivotal Game 4 opened with the Heat listed as 7-point favorites, the highest spread of the series. Despite roughly two-thirds of bets laying the points with Miami, we've actually seen this line dip to 6.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Pacers + 7, causing the line to be adjusted a half-point in their favor. The total is 216.5. The under is 2-1 this series, although the last game sailed over the closing total of 213.5 with a combined 239 points between both teams. 7 p.m. ET: New York Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers
This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference second round series. The Islanders are coming off a 4-1 series win over the Caps while the Flyers took down the Canadiens 4-2. This is the first postseason matchup between these teams since 1987. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a short -120 favorites and the Islanders a + 110 dog. Smart money has come down on the undervalued and underrated Islanders, moving the game closer to a pick'em. Philadelphia has fallen from -120 to -110 while New York has moved from + 110 to even money + 100. The Islanders enjoy one extra day of rest, having wrapped up their previous series on Aug. 20 while the Flyers last played on Aug. 21.
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Post by Makers on Aug 25, 2020 5:44:35 GMT -5
Monday was a good day for the public and a bad day for sportsbooks as NBA favorites got back to their winning ways with a 3-1 ATS showing. The Bucks (-13) edged the Magic 121-106. The Heat (-6.5) eliminated the Pacers 99-87. And the Lakers (-7) crushed the Blazers 135-115. Favorites are now 20-10-1 ATS (66.7%) this postseason. The lone dog to cover was the Thunder, which outlasted the Rockets 117-114. Oklahoma City was a quintessential sharp play for the wiseguys. In the most lopsided game of the day, roughly two-thirds of bets laid the points with Houston. However, despite this heavy support, the Rockets fell from -3.5 to -2.5. This sharp reverse line movement was a dead giveaway that pros got down hard on OKC plus the points. 6:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (10-14) at Washington Nationals (11-15)
These NL East foes are boh below .500 and find themselves at the bottom of the division. The Phillies enjoy an extra day of rest and are coming off a 5-4 win over the Braves on Sunday as even-money dogs (+ 100). The Nats played last night and fell to the Marlins 11-8 as -114 favorites. Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games. In tonight's series opener, the Phillies start veteran Jake Arrieta (1-3, 4.95 ERA) while the Nats counter with Erick Fedde (1-1, 2.55 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a short -113 road favorite and Washington a + 103 dog. Despite a slight majority of bets backing the Nats, we've seen this line move from Philly -113 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the rested Phillies. Road favorites are cashing at a 62% clip this season. 6:37 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (9-20) at Toronto Blue Jays (14-13)
This AL East showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Red Sox are riding a two-game losing skid and have gone 3-7 over their last ten games. The Jays are 7-3 over their last ten games. The Sox will start rookie lefty Kyle Hart (0-1, 11.12 ERA) with the Jays sending out Chase Anderson (0-0, 2.79 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -135 home favorite and Boston a + 125 dog. The public is fading the Sox, who own the 2nd-worst record in baseball behind the Angels. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing the Jays, this line has moved from Toronto -135 to -120. This signals some sharp action hitting the Red Sox at a decent plus money payout (+ 125 to + 110). The Sox have value as a divisional dog with a high total. Sharps have hit the over, pushing it up from 10.5 to 11. The forecast calls for mid 70s and 7-10 MPH winds out to left center. 7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (20-10) at Cleveland Indians (17-12)
The Twins took last night's series opener 3-2, cashing as -125 favorites. Tonight's Game 2 pits Minnesota lefty Rich Hill (1-1, 4.70 ERA) against Cleveland ace and AL Cy Young favorite Shane Bieber (5-0, 1.11 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a hefty -160 favorite and Minnesota a + 150 dog. The public is split and doesn't know who to take. On the one hand, Minnesota has the better record and a juicy plus-money payout. On the other hand, Cleveland is a favorite at home with one of the game's best pitchers on the mound. Despite an even bet split, this line has moved from Indians -160 to to -176, signaling pro money sees value laying the big number with Cleveland.
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Post by Makers on Aug 26, 2020 5:35:39 GMT -5
9 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers
After dropping the series opener, the Lakers have won three straight against the Blazers to take a 3-1 series lead. Los Angeles can finish off Portland with a win tonight. This Game 5 line opened with the Lakers listed as 12.5-point favorites, the highest spread of any game this series. Previous spreads were Lakers -6.5, -7, -7.5 and -7. Both Pros and Joes have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Lakers, who are coming off a 135-115 shellacking of Portland in Game 4. With roughly two-thirds of bets backing the favorites, Los Angeles has moved from -12.5 to -13.5. Some books are even at -14. The elephant in the room here is the injury to Blazers star Damian Lillard. He was ruled out with a knee sprain. The Lillard injury has also caused the total to drop from 225.5 to 222.5. 9:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Both teams will start big-name pitchers who have struggled this season, with the Rockies sending out Jon Gray (1-3, 6.23 ERA) and the Diamondbacks countering with Robbie Ray (1-3, 8.33 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a short -114 home favorite and the Rockies a + 104 road dog. Smart money has sided with the Snakes at home, pushing Arizona up to -120. Also, despite both pitchers having high ERAs, we've seen some sharp action on the under. The total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115. One variable to monitor here is the Chase Field roof. If it's closed, that benefits the under as the ball doesn't travel as well and it is perfect conditions for the pitchers. 10:30 p.m. ET: Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars
This best-of-seven series is the most surprising of Round 2. The Avs were a -250 favorite to win the series, but have dug themselves an 0-2 hole. With Dallas leading 2-0, Colorado has flipped from a -250 series favorite to a + 250 series dog. Simply put, this is now must-win territory for the Avs. This Game 3 line opened with Colorado listed as a -125 favorite and Dallas a + 115 dog. Smart money has come down on the desperate Avs, pushing the line up to Colorado -135. Some books are closer to -140. Both of the first two games have easily gone over, with Dallas winning 5-3 and 5-2. This total is 5.5 but the juice is an even -110 on both sides. You would have expected it to be shaded to the over but it's not.
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Post by Makers on Aug 27, 2020 6:08:29 GMT -5
Maybe? 6:37 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (22-10) at Texas Rangers (11-19)
After dropping the series opener 3-2, the Athletics have won two straight against the Rangers 10-3 and 3-1. Oakland will look to finish off Texas by winning the series finale and take three out of four tonight. The Athletics will start Chris Bassitt (2-1, 2.97 ERA) while the Rangers counter with Jordan Lyles (1-3, 9.25 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a big -173 road favorite and Texas a + 162 dog. Oftentimes, value-minded sharps see value in a dog at home with a plus money payout. However, it looks like Pros and Joes aren't outthinking this one and will continue to ride the streaking A's. Steam has pushed Oakland up to -182 and it appears the line could creep even higher. The A's are 21-8 as favorites this season and the Rangers are 6-12 as a dog. Road favorites are cashing at roughly a 62% clip this year. 7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (20-12) at Detroit Tigers (13-16)
On paper, this AL Central matchup looks like an easy layup. The Twins have a far better record and a big starting pitcher advantage. Minnesota will send out Randy Dobnak (5-1, 1.78 ERA) against Detroit's Matthew Boyd (0-4, 8.48 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as heavy -170 road favorites and the Tigers a + 155 home dog. Despite more than two-thirds of bets rushing to the window to lay the minus price with Minnesota, this line has actually tumbled to Twins -155, Tigers + 145. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Detroit. The Tigers have value as a divisional dog with a high total and are riding some momentum having just taken two of three from the Cubs. The Twins are 12-3 at home this season but just 8-9 on the road.
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Post by Makers on Aug 29, 2020 7:00:27 GMT -5
MLB: Favorites went 9-5 with upsets by Mets (+119 in both games of doubleheader sweep at Yankees), Reds (+129 vs. Cubs), Padres (short -102 dog at Rockies) & the biggie, Rangers (+200 vs. Dodgers); home teams 8-6 & lead 242-222 w/ no fans in stands. Overs went 9-5 and regain lead over Unders at 224-221-17 on the season with 2 no-action totals (Yankees-Nationals opener on July 23 & Orioles-Nationals "trap game" on Aug. 9. Two series in particular, the Magic-Bucks and Blazers-Lakers, offer double-digit point spreads. Milwaukee and Los Angeles are both 13.5-point favorites for today's Game 5s. Public bettors are psychologically biased toward betting favorites. However, they can be scared off by laying large point spreads, especially in the playoffs. After all, with such high stakes, these games tend to me closer than usual because the competition is more evenly matched than a normal regular season game. However, believe it or not, laying big points in the playoffs is actually a smart idea in the postseason. Double-digit favorites are 5-2 ATS so far this postseason. Since 2005, they are 70-52-3 ATS (57.4%) according to Bet Labs Sports. This doesn't mean you should blindly lay the points with every big playoff favorite. Be sure to handicap each game individually. Just know that laying the points on a big spread has had value historically. Don't let the big number automatically scare you off. 1:15 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (20-12) at St. Louis Cardinals (11-12)
The Indians crushed the Cardinals 14-2 in last night's Interleague series opener, cashing as -130 road favorites. These teams are trending in opposite directions as Cleveland has now won three straight while St. Louis has now dropped three straight. In this afternoon's Game 2 matchup the Indians trot out veteran Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 4.50 ERA) against Cardinals young ace Jack Flaherty (2-0, 1.98 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a short -125 home favorite and Cleveland a 115 road dog. Smart money has quickly come down on the road dog Tribe, dropping the Cardinals from -125 to -115 and the Indians from 115 to 105. The total is 8 with some liability to the under (-115). The Indians have been an incredible under bet this season, going 21-9-2.
7 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Islanders
This series is tied 1-1. The Islanders dominated the opener 4-0 and then the Flyers bounced back with a 4-3 overtime win in Game 2. This important Game 3 line opened with New York listed as a -112 favorite and the Flyers a 102 dog. Respected money has come down on the Isles, pushing New York up to -115 or even -120 at some shops. New York will have the benefit of being the designated home team, which means they enjoy the last line change and can play matchups to their benefit. This series is essentially a coinflip with the Flyers -115 and the Islanders -106 at BetMGM.
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Post by Makers on Aug 30, 2020 7:05:58 GMT -5
The Blazers and Magic are now eliminated from the playoffs while the Lakers and Bucks advance to the second round. The Rockets now lead the Thunder 3-2. With 11 teams now left in the postseason, here are the updated NBA Title odds at BetMGM.
Lakers, Bucks + 280
Clippers + 300
Raptors + 800
Celtics + 1000
Rockets + 1200
Heat + 1600
Mavs, Nuggets, Jazz + 4000
Thunder + 10000
Today, we have another big slate with 3 NBA games, 3 NHL games and 16 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
1 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors
Welcome to Game 1 of the second round. Both teams are coming off four-game sweeps in the first round, with the Celtics making quick work of the 76ers and the Raptors brushing aside the Nets. This line opened with Toronto listed as a short 2-point favorite. The public sees two elite teams and doesn't know who to take. However, despite tickets being split down the middle, we've seen the Raptors move from -2 to -2.5. This signals some smart money leaning toward laying the points, not taking them. Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry (ankle) has been upgraded to probable. Toronto is a -150 favorite to win the series at BetMGM, which translates to a 60% implied probability. Boston is + 125.
3:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers lead this best of seven series 3-2 and can finish off the Mavericks with a win. After exchanging victories through the first four games, Los Angeles demolished Dallas 154-111 in Game 5. This line opened with the Clippers listed as 9.5-point favorites. The public is split and doesn't know who to take. On the one hand, it's hard to pass up Luka Doncic getting big points. But casual bettors are also remembering a big 43-point Clippers victory the last time out. Despite bets being split, this line has ticked up from Los Angeles -9.5 to -10.5. This is the result of a combination of smart money laying the points and also Mavs star big man Kristaps Porzingis being ruled out with a knee injury. The Clippers are -2500 favorites (96.2%) to win the series. The Mavs are + 1200.
8:30 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz
The Jazz lead this first round series 3-2. Utah has a chance to eliminate the Nuggets with a victory tonight. This Game 6 line opened with Utah listed as a short 2.5-point favorite. Despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with Utah, this line has remained frozen. Some books have even dipped down to 2. This signals some pro money grabbing Denver and the points. The Nuggets also have contrarian value as they're only getting one-third of bets in a primetime game which will be the most heavily bet of the night. Denver staved off elimination their last time out with a gutsy 117-107 victory in Game 5 as 2.5-point dogs. We've also seen some smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 220.5 to 219.5. The Jazz are -358 favorites (78.2%) to win the series. The Nuggets are + 280.T
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Post by Makers on Aug 31, 2020 5:58:12 GMT -5
With the Mavericks eliminated, we are now down to 10 teams left in the NBA playoffs. Here are the latest championship odds at BetMGM.
Lakers, Bucks + 280 Clippers + 300 Celtics + 800 Raptors + 1000 Rockets + 1200 Heat + 1600 Nuggets + 3000 Jazz + 5000 Thunder + 10000 Today, a new week begins with 2 NBA games and 2 NHL games. We also have 11 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 6:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks
This is the series opener of the Second Round. The Heat are coming off a 4-0 sweep of the Pacers in Round 1 while the Bucks blew by the Magic 4-1. This Game 1 line opened with Milwaukee listed as a 6-point favorite. Sharps quickly grabbed the Heat at + 6, which has dropped the line down to 5.5. Some books briefly touched 5. Essentially, all liability has come down on Miami plus the points. One injury to keep an eye on this game is Bucks point guard Eric Bledsoe. He is questionable with a hamstring injury. The Bucks are listed as -500 favorites to win the series at BetMGM. This translates to an 83.3% implied probability. The Heat are + 375 dogs. 7 p.m. ET: Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning lead this best-of-seven Second Round series 3-1 and have a chance to eliminate the Bruins with a victory tonight. After Boston stole the series opener 3-2, Tampa Bay has ripped off three straight victories by scores of 4-3 (OT), 7-1 and, most recently, 3-1. This pivotal Game 5 opened with the Lightning listed as short -110 favorites and the Bruins an even money (+ 100) dog. It's do-or-die for Boston but we've seen smart money hit Tampa, pushing the Lightning from -110 to -115. Some books are closer to -120. The Bolts are the designated home team, which means they enjoy the advantage of having the last line change. The total is 5.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some liability on a lower-scoring game. 8:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (21-13) at Kansas City Royals (13-21)
This AL Central battle looks like a big mismatch on paper. The Indians are tied with the White Sox for the 4th-best record in baseball while the Royals have the 5th-worst record. Cleveland starts Shane Bieber (6-0, 1.35 ERA), who is off to a historic start on the mound. The Indians are a perfect 7-0 when he takes the ball. Kansas City counters with Brad Keller (3-1, 2.08 ERA). This line opened with the Indians listed as heavy -220 favorites and the Royals a + 190 dog. Sharps aren't outthinking this one and still see value on the favorite despite the expensive price. Pros immediately steamed the Tribe, pushing Cleveland up from -220 to -230. Some books are closer to -240. For those wary of laying the big number, Cleveland is -1.5 (-135) to win by two or more on the run-line.
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