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Post by Makers on Oct 8, 2021 6:05:00 GMT -5
The public is taking notice of those good teams and becoming fans of them at the bet window with their parlays. That team this week is the Michigan Wolverines who are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS and come off a huge win at Wisconsin last week.
“Michigan at Nebraska is our most handled game of the week and Michigan is our most one-sided,” said Las Vegas SuperBook manager Randy Blum. “We’ve moved Michigan from -3 to -3.5.”
Sharp money hasn’t moved on Nebraska as the home underdog yet, but maybe they’re waiting for a better number, or maybe they like what Michigan has cooking this season.
Nebraska (3-3, 4-1-1 ATS) has played well defensively lately and Adrian Martinez has executed better at QB and the combination has allowed them to go 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. Nebraska has proved they’re underrated and by winning this game at home, they can take that next step in the program. This is certainly Nebraska head coach Scott Frost’s biggest game.
The stat of the game to watch is the running numbers of Michigan. The Wolverines average 255 yards per game and the Nebraska defense allows 236 ypg rushing. Michigan QB Cade McNamara had his best game last week at Wisconsin in what was also his first road game. Possible letdown spot?
BYU (5-0, 3-2 ATS) is another one of those undefeated teams who come into their home game Saturday afternoon against a struggling Boise State (2-3, 3-2 ATS) who came off being upset at home by Nevada last week. It’s unusual to see the Broncos lose three games already this season.
“We had a big move on BYU from -3 up to -5.5,” Blum said. “BYU has been a public team the last few weeks, but this is definitely a sharp move.”
The South Point’s Chris Andrews said one of their top public plays this week was also BYU following the move.
So we have a mix of the public seeing a game move driven by sharps. The public follows after looking at both teams going in opposite directions and decides that the two trends will continue.
The biggest game of the day also features two undefeated teams looking to boost their postseason resume. It’s a battle of top-five teams with No. 4 Penn State visiting No. 3 Iowa who are both 4-1 ATS. It’s the first top-five meeting in Iowa since 1985 when Chuck Long and Ronnie Harmon’s No. 1 Hawkeyes beat No.2 Michigan, 12-10.
Iowa’s home field is respected by both sharp and public bettors. Circa Sports opened the game at Pick ‘em and within five minutes after opening on Sunday morning they were at Iowa -1.5 and 30 minutes later they Iowa -2.5. They’re at -2 now.
The last top-five teams to visit Kinnick Stadium have seen four of them go home a loser. The last top-five to come out a winner was that amazing 2017 Penn State squad with Saquon Barkley who totaled over 300 rushing and receiving yards. Penn State won 21-19.
Jason McCormick at Station Casinos says they have a 3-to-1 ratio with tickets written on Iowa in tickets written but it’s still not considered one of their top public risk games. They have Georgia (-16 at Auburn), Alabama (-17.5 at Texas A&M), and Ohio State (-20.5 vs. Maryland) as the top public favorites.
All three games the public have are perfect examples of the public betting what they saw last. Georgia hasn’t allowed anyone to score in their last two games, Alabama just covered against a good Mississippi squad while Texas A&M is banged up with no offensive threat. The Buckeyes returned to normal last week by killing a good Rutgers team and Maryland got roasted at home last week by Iowa.
It’s an odd combination of those top three public teams being the same at several Las Vegas locations as well as Marc Nelson’s Atlantis sportsbook in Reno. Nelson says his biggest risk so far is on Alabama. Andrews at the South Point says Georgia is their top risk of the week. The two teams favored to meet in the Championship Game are big public favorites in Week 6. Go figure.
There was a sharp group taking Air Force this week at the SuperBook and Station Casinos that moved them from a 4-point home favorite against Wyoming to -6 and the total dropped in that one from 49 down to 46.5.
“We also had sharp action pushing the Western Kentucky side and total,” said Blum about their home game against upstart UTSA. “They laid -2.5 up to -3.5 and they bet the total up from 67 to 70.”
UTSA (5-0, 4-1ATS) might be the best team in Conference USA but in this spot, WKU (1-3, 3-1 ATS) is respected by the wise guys. As for the total, it’s interesting to note that UTSA has gone over only once in five games while WKU has gone over in all four of their games.
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Post by Makers on Oct 8, 2021 6:09:05 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Oct 9, 2021 6:21:38 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Rutgers
This early Big Ten clash features two teams trending in opposite directions. Michigan State (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 11th overall. The Spartans just crushed Western Kentucky 48-31 last week, covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Rutgers (3-2 SU. 4-1 ATS) started the season 3-0 but has since lost two straight, including a 52-13 loss to Ohio State last week, failing to cover as 15-point home dogs. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for the Spartans and is hammering Michigan State. However, this line has actually fallen from 5 to 4.5. This indicates sharp wiseguy money buying low on Rutgers as a short home dog. Conference unranked teams vs ranked opponents are 20-12 ATS (62.5%) this season. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total slightly from 50 to 49.5. The weather could be a factor, with 10-15 MPH winds on tap.
12 p.m. ET: Oklahoma at Texas
The Red River Rivalry returns. This game will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas. This Big 12 heavyweight showdown features a pair of ranked teams who can put up points in a hurry. Oklahoma (5-0 SU, 1-4 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 6th. The Sooners just beat Kansas State 37-31, but failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Texas (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) has won three straight and is ranked 21st. The Longhorns just edged TCU 32-27, covering as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 3.5-point favorite. The public is down on Oklahoma because they're only 1-4 ATS. As a result, they're loading up on Texas plus the points. This lopsided trendy support has dipped some shops from Oklahoma -3.5 down to -3. Other books are holding firm at -3.5 despite heavy Texas support. This signals a sharp line freeze on Oklahoma with pros fading the trendy dog Longhorns. It looks as though wiseguys are buying low on Oklahoma when they fall to the key number of -3. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 55% ATS over the past decade.
7:30 p.m. ET: Michigan at Nebraska
This primetime Big Ten grudge match is one of the most heavily bet games of the night. Michigan (5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) enters undefeated and ranked 9th overall. The Wolverines just took down Wisconsin 38-17, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. On the flip side, Nebraska (3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS) is unranked but just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 57-7 thrashing of Northwestern last week, easily covering as 11-point home favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so low and is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the undefeated Wolverines. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has remained frozen at 3 and even dipped to 2.5 at some shops. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cornhuskers plus the points. Nebraska is contrarian in a heavily bet game. Unranked teams vs ranked teams are 41-33 ATS (55%) this season. Sharps are also leaning under here, as we've seen the total dip from 52.5 to 49.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under, with Michigan 3-2 and Nebraska 4-2.
More Saturday Moves
Virginia Tech 2 to pick vs Notre Dame
Syracuse 7 to 6 vs Wake Forest
Ohio State -20 to -21.5 vs Maryland
West Virginia 3 to 2.5 at Baylor
Connecticut -2 to -3 at Massachusetts
Virginia 3 to 2.5 at Louisville
Georgia Tech -3 to -4.5 at Duke
Air Force -4 to -5 vs Wyoming
Utah 4 to 3 at USC
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Post by Makers on Oct 10, 2021 5:20:00 GMT -5
9:30 a.m. ET: New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons
Don't sleep in too late Sunday morning or you'll miss this 9:30 AM ET kick in London. The Jets (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) just won their first game of the year last week, upsetting the Titans 27-24 as 5.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Falcons (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) just fell to Washington 34-30 at home, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has jumped on the Jets getting points, dropping this line down to 2.5. Short dogs 6 or less with a line move in their favor are 10-6 ATS this season and 53-33 ATS (62 percent) over the past two seasons. The Falcons will miss a pair of wide receivers with injuries today, including Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage.
1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
Both of these NFC non-division opponents are looking to bounce back from tough losses. The Eagles (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) have dropped three straight, including a 42-30 loss to the Chiefs last week in which they failed to cover as 7-point home dogs. Similarly, the Panthers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the year in Week 4, falling to the Cowboys 26-28 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with the Eagles and is happy to lay the points with the Panthers, who are at home laying a short number and have a far better won-loss record. However, pro money appears to be buying low on Philadelphia as we've seen the Eagles move from 4 to 3 despite being the unpopular play. The Eagles have buy-low value as a team on a losing skid. Road dogs are 25-15 ATS (62 percent) this season. Philadelphia also has value as a dog with a low total (45). Historically, low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 29-20 ATS (59 percent) to road teams historically.
1 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
This non-conference matchup features a pair of division leaders. The Packers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) lead the NFC North and are riding a 3-game winning streak, including a 27-17 win over the Steelers last week in which they covered as 6-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bengals (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) lead the AFC North and have won two straight, beating the Jaguars 24-21 last week but failing to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for Aaron Rodgers in company laying a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 3.5 to 3. Some books are even down to 2.5. This signals some wiseguy reverse line movement on the Bengals plus the points at home. The Bengals are your top contrarian play of the week as they are only receiving about one-quarter of bets across the market. The Bengals also have a rest and game-plan advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Packers played Sunday.
4:25 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
This NFC East grudge match pits the division leader against the cellar dweller. The Giants (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) just posted their first win of the season last week, upsetting the Saints 27-21 and winning outright as 7-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) have ripped off three-straight wins and just took down the Panthers 36-28, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Cowboys, who are the only NFL team to cover every game this season. However, this line hasn't ticked up to Dallas. Instead, it's fallen from 7.5 to 7. This indicates some respected money grabbing the Giants, ideally with the hook (7.5). New York has value as a divisional dog (56 percent ATS last two seasons) and a dog with a line move in their favor (58 percent ATS last two seasons). We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 49.5 to 52.5.
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Post by Makers on Oct 10, 2021 6:06:55 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Oct 11, 2021 6:17:18 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
These AFC non-division foes have gotten off to polar opposite starts to the season. The Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing streak with their first win of the season, beating Miami 27-17 as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Ravens (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) have rebounded from a Week 1 loss to the Raiders with three straight wins, including a 23-7 beatdown of the Broncos last week, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. The Colts are -14 in point differential. The Ravens are 13.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is hammering the red-hot Ravens, with 77-percent of bets at BetMGM laying the chalk with Lamar Jackson and company. However, despite this lopsided betting, the line has remained frozen at 7. This signals some liability on the road dog Colts with oddsmakers reluctant to move to + 7.5 and hand out the hook to contrarian Indianapolis backers. Road dogs are 29-19 ATS (60 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 8-6 ATS this season and 36-25 ATS (59 percent) over the past two seasons. The public has a lot of teasers pending on the Ravens, taking Baltimore down from -7 to -1. Baltimore is 16-2 in primetime games under John Harbaugh. The Ravens are also a sneaky popular survivor pick play. Gameday movement will tell a lot. If we see juice creep up and the line fall toward 6.5, that will indicate further Colts money. If it shifts toward -7.5, then the Ravens will be taking in the late action.
We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 48 to 46. Both teams are 2-2 to the over/under on the season. Primetime overs are 8-5 on the season, but unders have gone 4-1 over the last five. The under is 5-0 over the past five matchups between these teams.
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Post by Makers on Oct 12, 2021 5:27:18 GMT -5
NFL Week 6...
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
This early morning London showdown features two teams with a combined record of 1-9. The Dolphins (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) have dropped four straight after beating the Patriots 17-16 in the season opener. Miami just got waxed by the Bucs 45-17, failing to cover as 11-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Jaguars (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) are one of only two winless teams in the NFL, along with the Lions. Jacksonville just fell to Tennessee 37-19, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 3-point road favorite. Early money has faded the hapless Jags and pushed the Dolphins from -3 to -3.5. London favorites are 16-10 ATS (62 percent) since 2007. Also, teams off a blowout loss of 20-points or more (like the Dolphins) are 9-2 ATS this season and roughly 55% ATS over the past decade. Sharps have also hit the over, driving the total up from 44.5 to 45.5. London overs are 13-8 (62 percent) since 2012.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
This heavyweight showdown between divisional leaders could be a possible playoff preview. The Chargers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Browns 47-42 last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won four straight, including a big 31-25 come-from-behind win over the Colts last week, although Baltimore failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Early respected money has pounced on the Chargers getting the hook, dropping most books down from 3.5 to 3. Road dogs are 30-19 ATS (61 percent) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 22-8 ATS (73 percent). Los Angeles also enjoys a rest advantage as the Ravens are on a short week having played on Monday night.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
This non-conference matchup pits two of the top scoring offenses against each other. The Cardinals (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) are the last remaining unbeaten team in the NFL and just edged the 49ers 17-10 last week, covering s 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Browns (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) just lost to the Chargers 47-42, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Cleveland. This line opened with the Browns listed as a 3-point home favorite. With most teams receiving roughly 3-point for home field advantage, oddsmakers are pretty much saying this game would be a pick'em on a neutral field. Sharp money has pounced on Arizona as a dog, dropping the Cardinals from + 3 to + 2.5. Short road dogs + 3 or less are 11-3 ATS (79 percent) this season. Pros have hammered this under, dropping the total from 54 to 50.5. The forecast calls for 15 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound.
More early Week 6 moves
Lions 3.5 to 3 vs Bengals
Cowboys -2 to -4.5 at Patriots
Steelers -3.5 to -5 vs Seahawks
Bills -3 to -5.5 at Titans
Broncos -3 to -3.5 vs Raiders
Vikings-Panthers Under 47 to 46
Packers-Bears Under 46 to 45
Bucs-Eagles Under 52.5 to 51.5
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Post by Makers on Oct 13, 2021 5:26:28 GMT -5
Early CFB Saturday 12 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Indiana
This Big Ten clash features two teams trending in opposite directions. Michigan State (6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 10th in the country. The Spartans just waxed Rutgers 31-13, easily covering as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Indiana (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) is unranked and just got throttled by Penn State 24-0, failing to cover as 12.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Spartans listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both on the same page and neither are outsmarting themselves. They've laid the points and steamed Michigan State up from -3.5 to -4.5. Michigan State is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 37-19. Indiana has been outscored by an average of 28-24. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 51.5 to 48.5. The forecast calls for mid 50s with 10-15 MPH winds. Saturday 12 p.m. ET: Texas A&M at Missouri
These SEC rivals are both looking to shoot up in the conference standings with a win. Texas A&M (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) just posted an epic 41-38 victory over top-ranked Alabama, winning outright as 18.5-point home underdogs. On the other hand, Missouri (3-3 SU, 0-6 ATS) just edged North Texas 48-35 but failed to cover as 18.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Aggies after their big win over Alabama. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen A&M fall from -9.5 to -9, with some books inching down to -8.5. This signals some respected money buying low on Missouri and banking on a letdown spot for A&M. Unranked home dogs vs ranked opponents are 18-10 ATS (64 percent) this season. Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET: Purdue at Iowa
This Big Ten grudge match is currently the most heavily bet game of the afternoon. Purdue (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) started the season 2-0 but has since lost two straight, most recently falling to Minnesota 20-13, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 2nd in the country. The Hawkeyes just outlasted Penn State 23-20, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 12.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to ride the red-hot Hawkeyes and lay the double-digit spread. However, this line has actually dipped from 12.5 to 11.5. This indicates some sharp reverse line movement on road dog Purdue. Unranked conference dogs against ranked opponents are 22-17 ATS (56 percent) this season. Purdue enjoys a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye week while Iowa played last Saturday. The Boilermakers also have value as a double-digit dog with a low total (43). More Week 6 Moves
Cincinnati -20 to -21 vs UCF Kentucky 23.5 to 22.5 at Georgia Army-Wisconsin Under 42.5 to 39 Florida -10 to -11 at LSU Nebraska -2 to -4 at Minnesota Oklahoma -12.5 to -13.5. vs TCU Texas Tech -15.5 to -16.5 at Kansas Rutgers -1 to -2 at Northwestern Iowa State -4.5 to -6.5 at Kansas State North Carolina -6 to -7 vs Miami Vanderbilt 20 to 18.5 at South Carolina
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Post by Makers on Oct 14, 2021 5:26:16 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Georgia Southern at South Alabama
This Sun Belt grudge match features two teams looking to snap losing skids. Georgia Southern (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) won its opener but has gone 1-4 since, including a 27-24 loss to Troy last week, although Georgia Southern did cover as 5.5-point road dogs. Similarly, South Alabama (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) started the season 3-0 but has since dropped two straight, falling to Texas State 33-31, losing outright as 4-point road dogs.
This line opened with South Alabama listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with the home favorite, especially due to their superior won-loss record. However, this line has actually ticked down from 3.5 to 3, signaling some sharp wiseguy action backing Georgia Southern plus the points. Short road dogs + 4 or less are 27-18 ATS (60 percent) this season and roughly 55 percent ATS over the past decade. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 49.5 to 50.5. The forecast calls for high 80s at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. This would match a "hot over" system. When the temperature is 85 or more, the over is roughly 54 percent the past decade.
8:20 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
This Thursday Night showdown features a pair of NFC non-division foes coming off wins. The Buccaneers (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won two straight and just dismissed the Dolphins 45-17, easily covering as 11-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) just beat the Panthers 21-18, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The win snapped a three-game losing skid for Philadelphia. Both of these teams are even defensively, with the Bucs allowing 24.4 PPG and the Eagles allowing 24.8 PPG. The difference comes on offense where Tampa Bay is averaging 33.4 PPG as opposed to Philadelphia averaging 23 PPG.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Bucs and laying the chalk, expecting an easy win and cover. This lopsided support pushed the line up to the key number of 7. Over the past day or so, we've seen sharp buyback on the Eagles + 7, with many books juicing up the Eagles side and hinting at a fall back down to 6.5. Dogs are 45-35 ATS (56 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 9-6 ATS (60 percent). The Eagles also have value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Tom Brady is 0-10 ATS in his last ten primetime games. Tampa has ruled out tight end Rob Gronkowksi along with a pair of defensive starters in Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr.
Prop Bet to Consider: Jalen Hurts over 279.5 passing yards (DraftKings)
*Tampa Bay has the worst pass defense in the NFL, ranking dead last in opponent passing yards per game (314.4). The Bucs will be missing several starters. Hurts will need to throw the ball to keep pace with Brady and the Bucs. This could also lead to lots of garbage yards in the second half.
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Post by Makers on Oct 16, 2021 5:39:49 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at Texas
This Big 12 grudge match features a pair of ranked opponents fighting to catch Oklahoma atop the conference standings. Oklahoma State (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 12th. The Cowboys just took down Baylor 24-14, covering as 4-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) is ranked 25h and just lost a heartbreaker to Oklahoma 55-48, failing to cover as 4-point dogs. This line opened with Texas listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But wiseguys have taken a position on the Cowboys, steaming Oklahoma State from + 5 to + 3.5. Ranked favorites off a bye, like Oklahoma State here, are roughly 57 percent ATS over the past decade. Also, short road dogs + 4 or less are 27-19 ATS (59 percent) this season.
3:30 p.m. ET: Purdue at Iowa
This Big Ten clash is the most heavily bet game in the late afternoon window. Purdue (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) started the season 2-0 but has gone just 1-2 since. Purdue fell to Minnesota 20-13 their last time out, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Iowa (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 2nd overall in the country. The Hawkeyes just edged Penn State 23-20 last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 12.5-point home favorite. The public is riding the hot hand and happy to lay the points with mighty Iowa. However, we've seen this line fall from 12.5 to 11.5. This signals pro money backing Purdue plus the points. Unranked conference dogs against ranked opponents are 24-17 ATS (59 percent) this season. Purdue also has correlative betting value as a double digit dog in a low total game (42.5). The Boilermakers are coming off a bye while Iowa is on regular rest and played last week.
10 p.m. ET: Arizona State at Utah
This late night Pac 12 showdown features a pair of conference foes riding winning streaks. Arizona State (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) is ranked 18th and has won three straight, most recently dismissing Stanford 28-10 and covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Utah (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) is unranked but has won two straight, crushing USC 42-26 last week and winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona State listed as a 1-point road favorite. Right off the bat, this line stinks. If Arizona State is ranked and has a better record, shouldn't the Sun Devils be favored by far more than just 1 point? The public sees a layup with the ranked favorite and is hammering Arizona State. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has fallen to a pick'em. This signals sharp reverse line movement buying low on Utah at home. Unranked home teams against ranked opponents are 21-13 ATS (62 percent) this season.
More Saturday Moves
Tennessee 3 to 2.5 vs Mississippi
Kentucky 23.5 to 21.5 at Georgia
Cincinnati -20 to -21.5 vs UCF
Texas A&M -9.5 to -11 at Missouri
Florida -10 to -11.5 at LSU
Arkansas -3.5 to -4.5 vs Auburn
Oklahoma -12 to -13.5 vs TCU
Wisconsin -11 to -14 vs Army
Texas Tech -16.5 to -18.5 at Kansas
Ohio 10 to 7.5 at Buffalo
Eastern Michigan 3 to 1 vs Ball State
Iowa State -4.5 to -6.5 at Kansas State
Colorado State -9.5 to -11.5 at New Mexico
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Post by Makers on Oct 16, 2021 5:51:58 GMT -5
Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at the South Point In sports betting terms, Las Vegas might as well be a suburb of Los Angeles. Whenever any LA team is in the playoffs (any sport), fans flood Vegas to show support for their team by placing bets.
That means sportsbooks will be rooting for the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS that begins Saturday night in Georgia. It would be impossible to “split the money” even if we wanted to. Who’s going to bet Atlanta? Only a relative handful of sharps if they see an attractive price.
The South Point and other Nevada books will try to determine the best odds to take reasonable positions against the Dodgers for the NLCS and on a game-by-game basis.
Let’s start with the series. I opened Los Angeles -210/Atlanta + 180 to take the best-of-seven. Atlanta does have home field advantage if needed. But, the Dodgers are rightly perceived as the much superior side. Remember, regular season records were Los Angeles 106-56, Atlanta 88-73.
My first bet, surprisingly, was on the Braves! A sharp took the dog. I was a bit concerned I had opened too high. I dropped to -200/+ 175 to test the waters. Dodger money was soon flowing. I’m back to -210/+ 180 heading into what’s going to be a very busy Saturday at the counters.
If you’re wondering about odds to win the World Series. I have the Dodgers the clear favorite at + 120. Los Angeles would be a head-to-head favorite against whoever wins the American League. Atlanta is + 600, and would be a dog to either AL entry.
For now, the sportsbook is in a good position on this prop. We win with any of the four. The Boston Red Sox winning the World Series is actually our worst outcome. But, there’s plenty of time for that to change. Expected support for the Dodgers could alter the equation over the next week.
Now, to Saturday night’s series opener:
Saturday, Oct. 16
Moneyline
Los Angeles -128
Atlanta + 118
Over/Under
8 runs (Under -115/Over -105)
Books have been slow to post openers here because there’s been uncertainty about the Dodgers’ starting pitcher. It’s currently expected that Max Scherzer will get the nod. Scherzer got the save in Thursday’s series clincher against the San Francisco Giants. If he’s not ready, the Dodgers will likely go with a bullpen game. Obviously, there would be a game-day price adjustment on the game and total if that’s the case.
Max Fried is a lock to start for Atlanta barring late-breaking injury news.
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Post by Makers on Oct 16, 2021 8:27:37 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Oct 17, 2021 5:22:26 GMT -5
Today the weekend wraps up with Week 6 of the NFL regular season. Up until this point, underdogs and unders have been a smart bet. Dogs are 46-35 ATS (57 percent), with short road dogs + 6 or less a blistering 22-8 ATS (73 percent). Dogs off a loss are 23-16 ATS (59 percent). Meanwhile, unders are 44-37 (54 percent). If the total is 45 or less, the under is 15-8 (65 percent).
1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
These non-division NFC opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Vikings (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) started 0-2 but have since won two of their last three games, including a 19-17 come-from-behind win over the Lions last week, although Minnesota failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) started 3-0 but have since lost two straight, most recently falling to the Eagles 21-18 as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this speaks volumes. Typically teams are awarded roughly 3-point for home field advantage. So this opener says the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field. The public is all over Carolina, who has a better record and is laying a short number at home. However, pros have gotten down hard on Minnesota, flipping the Vikings from a + 1 dog to -2.5 favorite. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their directions are 34-24 ATS (59 percent) this season. Craig Wrolstad, the lead referee, has historically favored road teams (64-44 ATS, 59 percent).
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
This heavyweight showdown between divisional leaders could be a possible playoff preview. The Chargers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Browns 47-42 last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won four straight, including a big 31-25 come-from-behind win over the Colts last week, although Baltimore failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on the red-hot Chargers getting points, dropping Los Angeles down from + 3.5 to + 2.5. Road dogs are 30-19 ATS (61%) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 22-8 ATS (73%). Los Angeles also enjoys a rest advantage as the Ravens are on a short week having played on Monday night. Justin Herbert is 6-3 ATS (67%) as a dog in his young career. The Chargers are in a prime teaser spot, as going from + 2.5 to + 8.5 goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
4:25 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
This non-conference grudge match is the most heavily bet game of the late afternoon window. The Cowboys (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) are riding high, having won four straight games after losing the season opener to the Bucs. Dallas just waxed the Giants 44-20, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 25-22 win over the Texans, although New England failed to cover as 8-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as roughly a 2-point road favorite. The public is hammering Dallas, who is the only team to cover every number this season. This lopsided support pushed the Cowboys up to -4.5. That's when a flood of sharp Patriots buyback hit the market, dropping New England down to + 3.5 or even + 3 at some shops. The Patriots are one of your top contrarian plays of the day. The lead referee, Brad Allen, has historically favored home teams (59-49 ATS, 55%).
More Sunday Moves Dolphins-Jags Over 44.5 to 47 Packers -4.5 to -6 at Bears Packers-Bears Under 46 to 44 Broncos -3 to -4 vs Raiders Steelers -3.5 to -5 vs Seahawks Cardinals-Browns Under 54 to 48.5
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Post by Makers on Oct 17, 2021 5:25:54 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Oct 17, 2021 5:45:45 GMT -5
Joe Public is coming strong in NFL Week 6 action flush with cash after steamrolling the sportsbooks last Sunday with their reliable favorites. The most popular teams last week that did the damage was the Packers, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Titans, and Bills linked up in parlays and once they all hit, the books couldn’t maneuver to make up for the many 10-to-1 and 20-to-1 payouts. Those types of winning weeks happen maybe twice or three times a season and the same type of betting pattern happens the following week with the same teams, except Joe Public has more money to invest.
Early reports for multiple Nevada sports have the public circling the same teams in an extraordinary fashion which sets up for another bloody weekend if they’re correct again. Of course, you know who the teams are but here go with the public favorites for Week 6, ride or fade with discretion.
The Cowboys come in at No. 1 collectively as the most bet tickets and most parlay cash taken for their game at New England. What is the public supposed to do with the only 5-0 ATS team remaining. You keep winning with the same team, you keep betting the same team. The Cowboys look sharp so far with a defense that is getting better. They look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
But if so many people are betting on the Cowboys, why is the line dropping. Circa Sports opened the Cowboys -4.5 at New England and are now Cowboys -3.5 -105. The Las Vegas SuperBook is at -3 -120.
There’s a sharp group that has taken the Patriots +4 and +3.5. The home dog is usually very attractive for wise guys. but it’s enhanced more when the road team is a public favorite with an additional point-and-half tax added.
The bookmakers have seen their Cowboys risk growing larger every week with everyone aboard the bandwagon of America’s Team. Joe Public will lay -3.5 or -4 when the game based on true ratings should be -2.5. But while the public is laying any price, it’s the wise guys showing the sportsbooks with large cash that the number is off. Crossing over 3 is a big deal.
I hope all that made sense because I do get asked often why a number is moving the other way against the most popular bet team.
The second most popular parlay bet this week is the Bills who play on Monday night at Tennessee. The Bills have moved up from the dead number of -5 to the other dead number of -5.5, no big deal except that the public is already throwing on the Bills to their parlays.
Monday always has carryover from the weekend, but the public is inspired more because the Bills are the 4-1 ATS with an average score of 34-12 on the season. If only half the public teams cover on Sunday, the Bills risk on Monday night is going to be massive to the point I would suggest waiting to bet the Titans until Monday if you like them. Why not possibly take +6.5 on Monday than bet the Titans +5.5 today?
The Chiefs are next at No. 3 although they are the public’s No. 1 bet at local bet shops at Station Casinos and the South Point who are the champagne of the public bettors. The Chiefs have moved from -6.5 to -7 EVEN at the SuperBook. The South Point also took a sharp bet on the Washington Football Team, but it’s just a blip in Public Chiefs money.
Last week they turned on the Chiefs because they played the popular Bills, but when you can mix in an awful defense the Washington’s turned out to be against the Chiefs offense that scores 30 ppg, it helps ease the pain that the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS and allow 32 ppg.
The total for KC-WASH has dropped from 55.5 to 54 even though both teams are 4-1 to the over. Washington allows 31 ppg. I think the public thinks so little of the Washington’s that they believe Patrick Mahomes can right the ship. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, right?
Other teams that are being bet by the public that is more about who they are playing are the Rams and Colts. The Rams have dropped from -10.5 to -8 at the Giants and the Colts have been a steady 10-point home favorite against the Texans.
Most of the nation watched the Cowboys destroy the Giants last week, 47-20, and saw all the Giants injury woes coupled with allowing 27 ppg. So the Rams have to play a 10 am PT game after traveling across the country for an east coast game. The Rams last played Thursday in Week 5. They’re rested, but man that’s a lot of points to lay on the road. Chris Andrews at the South Point said he took sharp action on the Giants.
The Colts were impressive Monday night in an overtime loss at Baltimore. They covered to move to 3-2 ATS and made their dink and dunk pass game effective. The Colts have an impressive offensive line and front seven on defense. Meanwhile, the Texans are also 3-2 ATS, and rookie QB Davis Mills looked impressive in their 25-22 home loss to the Patriots. Rough number to lay, but they don’t like the Texans.
Marc Nelson at the Reno Atlantis said he had sharp money laying the Colts earlier in the week. Jason McCormick at Station Casinos said they have sharp action on the Texans +10.
Other sharp plays for the week include the Chargers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots. Jaguars, and Browns.
The Browns will be without RB Nick Chubb and they’ve moved up from -2.5 to -3.5 at home against the 5-0 Cardinals who have QB Kyler Murray with a banged-up shoulder. The Cardinals also have COVID-19 protocols happening with a few players notably LB Chandler Jones and a few key DBs.
Joe Public is split on the side as the Browns come off a loss and the Cardinals struggled at home against the 49ers. They like both the teams so neither registers as one the most lopsided sides. But it should be an entertaining game.
Sharp money took the Chargers at +3.5 and +3 at the Ravens. The Chargers apparently can’t be stopped anywhere, home and away. They’re 4-1 SU and ATS. The Ravens have turned into a passing team now going away from their run strength the last two weeks.
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