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Post by Makers on Oct 18, 2021 9:07:16 GMT -5
NFL favorites posted their best Sunday of the season yesterday, going 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS. Dogs remain profitable on the year at 40-33 ATS (54 percent). However, over the past two weeks favorites have gone 17-12 ATS (59 percent). This chalk resurgence represents major regression from the torrid start dogs got off to in the first three weeks.
The top spot for favorites this season has been non-conference favorites (17-12 ATS, 59 percent). Conference favorites are 26-38 ATS (41 percent). Non-conference favorites have historically performed better due to the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
This non-division AFC grudge match features two teams trending in an upward direction. The Bills (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have won four straight and just took down the Chiefs 38-20, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Titans (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) have won three of their last four and just dismissed the Jaguars 37-19, easily covering as 4.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Bills listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is more than happy to lay the points with red-hot Buffalo, especially after their dominant win over the Chiefs last week. This lopsided betting steamed Buffalo up from -3 to -6. Some shops are even inching up to -6.5. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-25 ATS (61 percent) this season.
The Titans have value as a super contrarian home dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 11-6 ATS (65 percent) this season. Conference dogs are 38-26 ATS (59 percent). Mike Vrabel is 13-9 ATS (59 percent) as a dog. Julio Jones is upgraded to probable and expected to play tonight, ending a two-game absence.
The total opened at 54.5 and has ticked down slightly to 53.5. Primetime overs are 10-6-1 (62 percent) this season. These teams played last season and the Titans won 42-16 in Nashville. Tonight's forecast calls for high 50s with little to no wind, a perfect night for football.
Prop bets to Consider
The Titans rank in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of passing yards allowed (264.5 per game). The Bills have allowed just 392 rushing yards this season, 2nd-best behind the Bucs.
Josh Allen Over 292.5 passing yards
Allen has gone over this number of two of his last three games.
Derrick Henry Under 97.5 rushing yards
TD Anytime scorer
Dawson Knox 140
Knox leads Buffalo with 5 TD receptions. He has scored a touchdown in four straight games.
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Post by Makers on Oct 19, 2021 6:32:58 GMT -5
Early action is flowing for NFL Week 7... 1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
This non-conference matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Falcons (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Jets 27-20 in London, covering as 3-point favorites. On the flipside, the Dolphins (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost four straight and just fell to the Jags 23-20 in London, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Atlanta, who is coming off a bye, steaming the Falcons from + 2.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp "Dog to Favorite" line movement for the Falcons. Non-conference favorites are 17-12 ATS (59 percent) this season. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-26 ATS (60 percent). This is a big rest advantage for Atlanta. Favorites off a bye are roughly 58 percent ATS over the past decade, with road favorites roughly 66 percent ATS. Both teams are giving up roughly 30 points per game defensively. The difference comes on offense, where the Falcons are averaging 21 PPG on offense and the Dolphins just 16.5 PPG.
1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Both these NFC foes are looking to snap losing streaks. The Panthers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) have dropped three straight and just fell to the Vikings 34-28, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost two straight and just got waxed by the Rams 38-11, failing to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Caroliba listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to fade the Giants and lay the points with the Panthers, who have a better won-loss record. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Carolina, the line has remained frozen at -3. In fact, most shops are juicing up the + 3 to -115 and some are even falling to 2.5. This signals a sharp line freeze and reverse line movement on the Giants getting the key number of 3. Dogs off a 20-point blowout loss or more are roughly 55 percent ATS over the past decade. Conference dogs are 39-26 ATS (60 percent).
8:20 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers
This Sunday night showdown features a pair of sub .500 teams looking to get back in the playoff conversation. The Colts (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just demolished Houston 31-3, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Cardinals 17-10 last week, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have taken the points with road dog Indianapolis, dropping the line from 5 to 3.5. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 25-9 ATS (74 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 12-6 ATS (67 percent).
More Week 7 Moves
Broncos + 6 to + 3.5 at Browns
Chiefs -3 to -3.5 at Titans
Eagles-Raiders over 47.5 to 49
Bears-Bucs under 49 to 47
Saints -3.5 to -5 at Seahawks
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Post by Makers on Oct 20, 2021 7:20:28 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons
Both of these Central Division foes finished with sub .500 records and missed the playoffs last season, with the Bulls going 31-41 and the Pistons finishing 20-52. Chicago loaded up in the offseason, swinging a trade for DeMar Derozan and signing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. The Pistons added top pick Cade Cunningham in the draft, although the Oklahoma State star is going to miss this game with a sprained ankle. This line opened with Chicago listed as a 3-point road favorite. Once Cunningham was ruled out, an overload of money steamed the Bulls, driving Chicago up from -3 to -5. The Bulls' win total this season is 42.5 at BetMGM. The Pistons' win total is 24.5. Chicago went a perfect 4-0 in the preseason. Detroit went 2-2.
8 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans
This non-conference showdown is one of the most heavily bet games of the night, thanks in large part to the drama created by the suspended and insubordinate star of the 76ers, Ben Simmons. The 76ers finished 49-23 last season and the Pelicans 31-41. The early lookahead line on this game was Philadelphia -1 on the road. Heavy 76ers money steamed this line all the way up to -4.5. Once the news of Simmons missing this game with suspension broke, the line quickly dropped from 4.5 to 3. Essentially all late money is breaking toward the Pelicans at home getting points. New Orleans is also one of your top contrarian plays of the night. Philadelphia's win total is 50.5. New Orleans' win total is 39.5.
8 p.m. ET: Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies
These non-conference opponents finished with polar opposite campaigns last season. The Cavs went 22-50 while the Grizzlies went 38-34 and made the playoffs. This line opened with Memphis listed as an 8-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover the Grizzlies. However, despite this lopsided betting towards Memphis, the line has fallen from 8 to 7.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement grabbing the points with the road dog Cavs. Over the past decade, backing teams on Opening Night who has 25 or less wins the previous year has covered at roughly a 60-percent clip. Cleveland's win total is 26.5 and Memphis' 41.5.
More Wednesday Moves Celtics-Knicks Over 216 to 218.5 Pacers-Hornets Under 228 to 223.5 Kings-Blazers Over 230.5 to 232.5 Kings 5.5 to 5 at Blazers Magic-Spurs Under 214 to 212.5 Knicks -1 to -2 vs Celtics
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Post by Makers on Oct 21, 2021 5:56:55 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Cleveland BrownsThis Thursday Night clash features a pair of .500 teams looking to snap losing skids. The Broncos (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 3-0 but have since gone 0-3, most recently falling to the Raiders 34-24 last week, losing outright as 5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Browns (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 3-1 but have since lost two straight, including a 37-14 loss to the Cardinals last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. The Broncos are + 16 in point differential. The Browns are + 5. This line opened with Cleveland listed as roughly a 6-point home favorite. As soon as the line was released, r espected money pounced on the Broncos getting points, steaming Denver down to + 3.5. Then, once it was announced Baker Mayfield would miss this game due to injury and Case Keenum would start in his place, we saw a second rush of Broncos money hit the market, dropping Denver down to + 2. Denver matches several profitable betting systems. Road dogs off a loss are 18-11 ATS (62%) this season. Primetime dogs are 12-6 ATS (67%). Conference dogs are 39-26 ATS (60%). Short road dogs + 3 or less are 12-4 ATS (75%). Teddy Bridgewater is 24-7 ATS (77%) in his career as a dog, including an incredible 19-2 ATS (91%) as a road dog. Respected money has also come down on this under, dropping the total from 44 to 41. Unders are 51-42 (55%) this season. If the total is 45 or less, the under is 17-9 (65%). Weather could also play a factor here. The forecast calls for low 60s with 15-20 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound. When the wind blows at least 10 MPH the under is 17-10 (63%) this season and roughly 55% the past decade.
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Post by Makers on Oct 22, 2021 5:38:25 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Memphis at Central Florida
This American Conference clash features two teams trending in opposite directions. Memphis (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) just rolled Navy 35-17, covering as 11-point home favorites. On the flip side, Central Florida (3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) has lost three of their last four and just fell to Cincinnati 56-21, failing to cover as 21.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Central Florida listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has gotten down hard on Memphis, flipping the Tigers from + 2.5 to -1.5. Memphis fits a classic "dog to favorite" sharp line move system. Memphis enjoys a two-day rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while UCF played on Saturday. The Tigers will lean on their offense in this one. Memphis ranks 2nd in the conference in total offense.
9:30 p.m. ET: Colorado State at Utah State
This Mountain West matchup pits a pair of teams coming off wins. Colorado State (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) has won two straight and three of their four, including a 36-7 win over New Mexico last week, easily covering as 13-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Utah State (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) just edged lowly UNLV 28-24, failing to cover as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Colorado State listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Big money has rushed to the window to lay the points with Colorado State, steaming the Rams up from -1.5 to -3. Colorado State has an edge on defense, as the Rams are only allowing 19.5 PPG. In comparison, Utah State gives up 29.5 PPG on defense.
8:08 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
This is Game 6 of the ALCS. The Astros lead the series 3-2 and can punch their ticket to the World Series with a win tonight. Facing elimination, Boston hands the ball to righty Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA in the regular season). Houston counters with fellow righty Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a short -110 home favorite and the Red Sox a + 100 road dog. The public is riding the hot hand with the Astros, who just won the last two games in Boston in convincing fashion. However, we've seen this line fall to virtual pick'em with some shops flipping Boston to a slight favorite at -107. This signals respected money backing the Red Sox to stay alive and force a Game 7. The total is 8.5 with some juice liability to the over (-115). The over is a perfect 5-0 this series.
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Post by Makers on Oct 23, 2021 8:40:10 GMT -5
3 p.m. ET: Wisconsin at Purdue
These Big Ten rivals are playing well as of late. Wisconsin (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) has won two straight and just edged Army 20-14, although the Badgers failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. Similarly, Purdue (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) has won two of their last three and just shocked then 2nd-ranked Iowa 24-7, easily winning outright as 11.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is shocked Wisconsin is favored, after all Purdue is ranked 25th in the country and Wisconsin is unranked. This looks like a no-brainer to take Purdue getting points at home. However, we've actually seen the line move further to Wisconsin (-3 to -3.5) despite a lopsided majority of tickets backing Purdue. This indicates wiseguy money buying low on the contrarian favorite Badgers.
3:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at Iowa State
This Big 12 showdown features one of the most perplexing lines of the day. Oklahoma State (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) enters undefeated and ranked 8th in the country. The Cowboys just upset Texas 32-24 last week, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Iowa State (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) is unranked but has won two straight games and three of their last four, most recently taking down Kansas State 33-20 last week, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the oddsmakers are crazy for making the Cyclones such a big favorite and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with undefeated Oklahoma State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Iowa State move from -6.5 to -7. This signals sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" line movement on the Cyclones, with pros backing the fishy contrarian favorite. Unranked home teams against ranked opponents are 25-18 ATS (58%) this season.
3:30 p.m. ET: Oregon at UCLA
Both of these Pac 12 rivals are looking to stay atop the conference standings. Oregon (5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS) is ranked 10th in the country and just edged California 24-17, although the Ducks failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. On the other side, UCLA (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) is unranked but has won two straight, beating Washington 24-17 last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened at a virtual pick'em. Right off the bat, this opener speaks volumes. If Oregon is ranked and UCLA isn't, then why is the line a coin-flip? Shouldn't Oregon be favored? The public is loading up on the Ducks, yet we've seen UCLA move to -1. Some books have inched as high as UCLA -2 throughout the week. Essentially all liability is on UCLA even though the public is all over the Ducks. This signals sharp action backing the Bruins at home. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 58 to 60.5.
More Saturday Moves
Cincinnati -27 to -28 at Navy
LSU 10.5 to 7.5 at Mississippi
Pittsburgh -3 to -3.5 vs Clemson
Tennessee 27.5 to 25.5 at Alabama
Ohio State -19 to -21 at Indiana
Michigan -21.5 to -23.5 vs Northwestern
NC State -2.5 to -3.5 at Miami
Vanderbilt 23 to 20.5 vs Mississippi State
Miami Ohio 6 to 4 at Ball State
Colorado 9.5 to 8.5 at California
Boston College 6.5 to 5 at Louisville
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Post by Makers on Oct 23, 2021 8:51:49 GMT -5
Chris Andrews Sportsbook Director at the South Point
Sunday, Oct. 24 Cincinnati at Baltimore (-6, 46.5)
I opened Baltimore -6.5. I dropped to -6 after taking a sharp bet on the Bengals. I still see 6.5’s out there. Customers are laying the six with me. I think we’ll be back to 6.5 eventually. Baltimore is getting some play on six-point teasers (asking the Ravens to just win the game). But, not as much as you might think at that price point. Sharps typically want to cross both the 3 and 7 with their teasers. The public watched the inconsistent Ravens barely get past Detroit and Indianapolis. My Over/Under opened 47. First bet was on the Over, so I moved to 47.5. Then a wiseguy bet Under. I saw the market trending that way, so I dropped a full point to 46.5. We’re still at 46.5. But, I see the market trending even lower elsewhere. I may be at 46 by the time you read this.
Carolina (-2.5, 43) at the NY Giants
This may be one of those games that hops between 2.5 and 3. I opened Carolina -2.5. First bet was on the Panthers. After I moved to three, one of my sharpest guys came in hard on the Giants. I’m back to 2.5. I see 3s out there (some with reduced vigorish). I won’t go back to three unless I take some more bets on the Panthers. The Giants could be a choice for sharps who play teasers, moving the Giants up through the 3 and the 7 to plus 8.5. The public typically only moves favorites down. Generally speaking, a team that offers clear betting value at + 3 also offers it in teasers at + 8.5, particularly in a game with such a low total. I opened 44 and I dropped straight to 43 (without stopping at 43.5) because of sharp betting on the Under.
Washington at Green Bay (-8, 48)
A lot of action on this one. I opened Green Bay -10. Sharps took Washington at + 10, + 9.5, + 9 and + 8.5. They walked me all the way down to my current line of + 8. The public is all over Green Bay in teasers and to win straight-up in moneyline parlays. Some sharps also teased Green Bay down through the 7 and the 3. Very popular betting game to this point across the full slate of options. I opened the total at 49. Sharps bet it down to 48.5 and then 48. Seeing something like that means you should check the weather! Current forecast is for windy conditions Sunday in Green Bay.
Kansas City (-5, 57.5) at Tennessee
Before Tennessee played this past Monday night vs. Buffalo, I had opened the game Kansas City -4 and took a little bit of play on the Chiefs. I reopened Tuesday at Kansas City -4.5. The rest of the market generally opened higher, which surprised me. The way Kansas City’s defense has been playing vs. quality offenses, I was afraid my opener had been a little high. Bettors laid -4.5 and -5 with KC. I moved to 5.5 and got decent two-way action for a while. Then a sharp stepped in hard on Tennessee, so I dropped back to five. Not as much teaser and moneyline play on the Chiefs as we’ve seen in recent road favorite spots. I actually took a big moneyline bet on the Titans to spring the upset. My total opened 56. They bet me Over 56, 56.5 and 57. I’m currently at 57.5. Still hardly anything on the Under (30 “grocery” dollars). Might take 58 (or more) for sharps to consider an Under bet.
Atlanta (-2.5, 47.5) at Miami
This goes on the “nobody knows they’re playing” list, as there has been very little action. It is currently, and probably will be, my least bet game of the day. I’m still at my opener of 2.5. Sharps are leaving it alone (but would likely take the dog at the key number of + 3). The public doesn’t want to lay points on the road with Atlanta, nor take a home dog that didn’t get a bye after playing in London last Sunday. My opening total of 48 is down to 47.5 after one sharp bet.
NY Jets at New England (-7, 42.5)
Two-way business at my opener of Patriots -7. But, the news here involves teasers and moneyline parlays. New England is VERY popular in both. Ticket count is about 9/1 for the Patriots. Customers aren’t laying -7. They’re laying -1 in teasers and just asking the Pats to win outright in ML parlays. Sharps know that the Jets are a divisional revenge dog off a bye week (Pats went OT vs. Dallas last week). Some may be waiting to see if sportsbooks make + 7.5 available between now and kickoff. Hardly any betting on my opening total of 42.5. That low total means points are at a premium for dog and teaser bettors. “Buying” six points in a game totaled in the low 40’s is a better bargain than doing so at totals like 48 or 55. More bang for your buck.
Detroit at LA Rams (-16, 50.5)
I opened Rams -15.5. First bet was on the dog, so I went down to 15. Then a fairly sharp customer laid -15. I went straight to -16. Bettors are starting to lay -16. I see -16.5s out there, so I have a feeling this price will go up. It might take 17 to bring in more sharp action on the Lions. If the public is going to drive it that high, sharps might as well wait for it. The Rams are getting teaser play from the public. I wouldn’t recommend that approach here. Not much bang for your buck when you’re “buying” numbers 11-16 “to make the line cheaper” in a high-totaled game. I opened 50. After one sharp bet Over, I moved to 50.5.
Philadelphia at Las Vegas (-3, 49)
We’ve been writing very good two-way business at my opener of Raiders -3. Ticket count is 3/1 for the hosts, which isn’t surprising in this city. Sharps are expected to favor the dog. Some stores are already charging a higher vig on Philadelphia + 3. I’ve taken some moneyline play on the Eagles to win outright. My total opened 49.5. They bet me Under 49.5 and Under 49, so I went to 48.5. After taking a big bet on the Over I moved back to 49. Good two-way play on the total but at different prices.
Chicago at Tampa Bay (-12, 47)
Sharps stepped in pretty hard on Chicago early on. I opened Tampa Bay -13.5. Sharps bet the Bears + 13.5, + 13 and + 12.5. I’m down to a dozen now and I’m getting some buy back on the Bucs. But, I still see the line lower in some spots. Sharps (and some followers) may keep betting Chicago + 12. My opening total of 47 has received two-way play. No reason to move it.
Houston at Arizona (-18, 47.5)
I opened Arizona -17. First bet was on Arizona. I went straight to -18 (skipping -17.5). They laid that. I went to -18.5. Wiseguys started playing the dog at that price. I’m back to 18. Decent two-play play on my opening total of 47.5. Still there.
Indianapolis at San Francisco (-4, 43.5)
Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start at quarterback for the 49ers. I opened San Francisco -3.5 and sharps laid that, so I went to -4. I’ve told you in the past that sharp bets “away” from the key number carry a lot of weight. I’m writing pretty even business at the four. I wouldn’t be surprised if the line starts to drop before kickoff. Indianapolis has covered three straight and should have beaten Baltimore outright in that stretch. This is the Sunday night game. People will be looking for reasons to bet. Is Garappolo a reason to bet? My Over/Under has been all over the place. I opened 45.5. They bet me Under 45.5, Under 45, Under 44 (I skipped 44.5) and Under 43 (I skipped 43.5). After that big drop, I started taking Over bets at 43. But, after moving up to 43.5, more Under bets came in. Preliminary weather forecast is pretty nasty. That’s what the money was telling us.
Monday, Oct. 25
New Orleans (-4.5, 43) at Seattle
Very good two-way action at my opening line of New Orleans -4.5. We have a fairly even ticket count. The money’s pretty even, too. The line could move between now and kickoff, but I have no idea which way. There probably won’t be a bandwagon effect for Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks. New Orleans lost outright as favorites to the Giants and Carolina. People are always going to bet MNF no matter the matchup. Allegiances may stay split at 4.5 all the way until kickoff. I opened the total at 44.5. Strong Under support drove it straight to 43.5. They kept betting Under, so I dropped to 43. Not much action since the move to 43. Under money stopped, but no buy back yet on the Over.
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Post by Makers on Oct 24, 2021 5:09:28 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Oct 24, 2021 5:13:35 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
The Falcons (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Jets 27-20 in London, covering as 3-point favorites. On the flipside, the Dolphins (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost four straight and just fell to the Jags 23-20 in London, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Atlanta, steaming the Falcons from 2.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp "Dog to Favorite" line movement for the Falcons. Non-conference favorites are 17-12 ATS (59%) this season. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-27 ATS (59%). This is a big rest advantage for Atlanta, who was idle last week. Favorites off a bye are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade, with road favorites roughly 66% ATS. Both teams are giving up roughly 30 points per game defensively. The difference comes on offense, where the Falcons are averaging 21 PPG on offense and the Dolphins just 16.5 PPG.
4:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders
The Eagles (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) have lost four of their last five games, although they did manage to cover the 7 last week in a 28-22 loss at home to the Bucs. Meanwhile, the Raiders (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) let go of Jon Gruden and then rolled the Broncos 34-24 last week, winning outright as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Las Vegas listed as a 3-point home favorite. With typically 3-points awarded for home field advantage, the oddsmakers are pretty much saying these teams are even and it would be a coin-flip on a neutral field. The line hasn't budged off the key number of 3, although some books are juicing up the Eagles 3 to -115. Short road dogs 3 or less are 12-4 ATS (75%) this season. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-27 ATS (59%). Philadelphia also has a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Raiders played Sunday on the road. Points could be on display in this one. The total has been bet up from 47.5 to 48.5, signaling some respected over money.
8:20 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers
The Colts (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just demolished Houston 31-3, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Cardinals 17-10 last week and failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have taken the points with road dog Indianapolis, dropping the line from 5 to 4. Some shops have even reached 3.5 throughout the week. Essentially, all liability appears to be on Indianapolis. The Colts also match several profitable betting systems this season. Short road dogs 6 or less are 25-9 ATS (74%) this season. Primetime dogs are 12-6 ATS (63%). Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (60% ATS). We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 44.5 to 43. Weather could play a factor, with forecasts calling for 15-20 MPH wins at Levi's Stadium.
More Sunday Moves
Bengals/Ravens Under 47.5 to 46
Panthers-Giants Under 44 to 42.5
Washington 10 to 8 at Packers
Chiefs-Titans Over 56.5 to 57.5
Bears 12.5 to 11.5 at Bucs
Cardinals -17 to -18 vs Texans
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Post by Makers on Oct 25, 2021 5:49:34 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
These NFC non-division foes are trending in opposite directions. The Saints (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a bye having won two of their last three games, most recently beating Washington 33-22 and covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Steeelers 23-20, although Seattle covered as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Geno Smith and the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks. This lopsided betting pushed New Orleans all the way up to -5.5 during the week. Then we saw a wave of buyback hit Seattle plus the points, dropping the line back down to 4.
Both teams match several profitable betting systems. Favorites off a bye, like the Saints, are roughly 58% ATS the last decade. Road favorites off a bye improve to 66% ATS. Meanwhile, Seattle has value as a contrarian inflated dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%). Conference dogs are 43-30 ATS (59%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 34-20 ATS (63%).
We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 44 to 41.5. When the total is a low 45 or less, the under is 19-11 (63%) this season. Weather could play a factor in this one. The forecast calls for low 50s with rain and 15 MPH winds. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (55%). The Saints are 3-2 to the under this season. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 to the under.
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Post by Makers on Oct 26, 2021 5:30:23 GMT -5
Early action NFL Week 8...
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Both of these NFC foes are at the bottom of their division standings and desperate for a win. The Eagles (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Raiders 33-22 and failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (0-7 SU, 4-3 ATS) are the only winless team in the NFL. Detroit just lost to the Rams 28-19, although the Lions managed to cover as 16.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees the Eagles as the lesser of two evils and is laying the points with Philadelphia. However, we've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3. This signals some respected money grabbing Detroit at home. Conference dogs + 7 or less are 35-20 ATS (64%) this season.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
These non-division NFC opponents are looking to snap losing streaks. The 49ers (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) have lost four straight, including a 30-18 loss to the Colts last week, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bears (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) have dropped two straight. Chicago just fell to the Bucs 38-3, failing to cover as 12-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. But a closer look at the line shows the Bears 3.5 being juiced up to -120, signaling liability on Chicago and a possible drop down to the key number of 3. The 49ers are in the classic "Fade West Coast team going East for an early 1 p.m. game" spot. The Bears also have buy-low value as a dog off a 20-point blowout loss or more, which is 7-4 ATS this season and roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Pros are also leaning under, as we've seen the total dip from 42.5 to 39.5. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds in Chicago.
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Both of these AFC non-division teams are looking to jockey for playoff positioning. The Patriots (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) are 2-1 over their last three games and just crushed the Jets 54-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a bye and just got demolished by the Ravens 34-6, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Justin Herbert and company off a bye. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 6 to 5.5. This indicates some respected money on Belichick and the Pats plus the points. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 41-32 ATS (56%) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 26-11 ATS (70%). Pros also seem to be leaning over. The total has ticked up from 47.5 to 49.
More Early Moves
Giants-Chiefs Under 52.5 to 51.5
Cowboys -1 to -2.5 at Vikings
Washington + 3.5 to + 3 at Broncos
Browns -3 to -3.5 vs Steelers
Panthers-Falcons Under 47 to 46
Dolphins-Bills Under 49 to 48
Titans-Colts Over 48 to 49
Cardinals -3.5 to -6 vs Packers
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Post by Makers on Oct 27, 2021 5:34:29 GMT -5
Week 9 of the College Football
12 p.m. ET: Iowa at Wisconsin
This Big Ten showdown is the most heavily bet early game on the board. Iowa (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is ranked 9th in the country and is coming off a bye. The Hawkeyes just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Purdue 24-7 as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) was left for dead after starting the season 1-3. But now the Badgers have won three straight, including a 30-13 win over Purdue last week, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. If Iowa is the better team and ranked, then why are they getting points? The public is rushing to the window to grab Iowa, yet we've seen the line stay at Wisconsin -3 or even -3.5 at some shops. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" liability on contrarian favorite Wisconsin. We could also be looking at a low scoring game. The total has fallen from 37 to 36.5. Iowa is 5-2 to the under. Wisconsin is 4-3 to the under.
7 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Auburn
This primetime matchup features a pair of ranked SEC rivals battling for conference supremacy. Ole Miss (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is ranked 10th in the country and has won three straight games, most recently beating LSU 31-17, covering as 9-point home favorites. On the flip side, Auburn (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 18th and just crushed Arkansas 38-23, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is jumping all over Ole Miss as a dog due to their higher ranking and better record. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Auburn move from -1 to -3. This indicates respected money laying the points with Auburn. Auburn is also coming off a bye. Ranked home favorites off a bye are roughly 59% ATS the past decade. Both teams can put up points (Ole Miss 41.9 PPG and Auburn 35.4 PPG). The difference comes on defense, where Ole Miss is allowing 28.3 PPG and Auburn just 19.7 PPG.
7:30 p.m. ET: Penn State at Ohio State
This Big Ten primetime clash features two rivals trending in opposite directions. Penn State (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 20th in the country and has lost two straight, most recently falling to unranked Illinois 20-18 in a 9 OT thriller, losing outright as 24.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio State (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has won five straight and is ranked 5th. The Buckeyes just crushed Indiana 54-7, easily covering as 21-point home favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 17-point home favorite. Pros and Joes aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're both laying the points with red-hot Ohio State, steaming the Buckeyes up from -17 to -18.5. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. Both teams have stellar defenses (PSU allows 14.71 PPG and OSU 18.57 PPG). The big difference comes on offense, where Ohio State is averaging 49.29 PPG and Penn State just 26.86.
More Week 9 Moves Michigan -3.5 to -4.5 at Michigan State Colorado 26.5 to 24 at Oregon Miami 11.5 to 9 at Pittsburgh Buffalo -12.5 to -13.5 vs Bowling Green Oklahoma -19 to -20 vs Texas Tech Baylor -2 to -3 vs Texas Maryland -3 to -5.5 vs Indiana Utah -4.5 to -6.5 vs UCLA Georgia Tech -3 to -4 vs Virginia Tech
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Post by Makers on Oct 28, 2021 5:33:14 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
This Thursday Night Football showdown features two of the best teams in the NFL going head-to-head. The Packers (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) are currently 1200 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings, tied with the Ravens for the 5th-best odds overall. The undefeated Cardinals (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) are 900, 4th-best odds behind only the Bills ( 550), Bucs ( 550) and Rams ( 800). Kyler Murray is 450 to win MVP, second best odds overall behind only Josh Allen ( 400). Aaron Rodgers is 6th at 1400.
The Packers have won six straight and just brushed aside Washington 24-10, covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals just waxed the Texans 31-5, covering as 20-point home favorites.
This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. At first it looked like the public was jumping at the opportunity to back mighty Green Bay as a trendy dog. After all, how can you not take points with Aaron Rodgers? But then something unexpected happened which caused a massive adjustment to the odds. The Packers placed several players on the COVID list, including top wide receiver Davante Adams along with fellow wideout Allen Lazard. Right on cue, the line shot up from Cardinals -3.5 to -6.5.
Those who hopped on the COVID news and jumped on the Cardinals at -3.5, -4 or -4.5 are now sitting pretty with great closing line value. If you're backing the Cardinals now at -6.5 you're getting the worst of the number after all the value is gone. The Cardinals are likely to be a popular teaser play (-6.5 to -0.5). At this point, the Packers now offer value as a "buy on bad news" contrarian dog with an inflated line. Green Bay matches several profitable betting systems. Conference dogs 7 or less are 35-20 ATS (64%) this season. Primetime dogs are 14-7 ATS (67%). Road dogs are 36-26 ATS (58%).
We've also seen some wiseguy money hit the under, steaming the total down from 52.5 to 50.5. Unders are 59-47 (56%) this season. Both of these teams have been "under" teams this season. The Packers are 5-2 to the under and the Cardinals are 4-3 to the under.
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Post by Makers on Oct 29, 2021 6:06:04 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Navy at Tulsa
This American Conference matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. Navy (1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS) has lost three straight and just fell to Cincinnati 27-20, although Navy covered as big 28.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Tulsa (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) has won two straight and three of their last four, most recently beating South Florida 32-31 but failing to cover as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Tulsa listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public says this line is too high and is jumping on Navy plus the points, especially after they just hung tough against 2nd-ranked Cincinnati. However, despite a majority of bets backing Navy, we've seen this line move from Tulsa -10 to -11. This sharp reverse line movement signals wiseguy action fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian favorite. Tulsa has a rest advantage as they're coming off a bye and Navy is on a short week having just played last Saturday. Both of these teams are giving up roughly 32 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Tulsa is averaging 25 PPG compared to Navy averaging just 18 PPG.
10 p.m. ET: UNLV at Nevada
This late night Mountain West clash looks like an epic mismatch on paper. UNLV (0-7 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is winless this season and just fell to San Jose State 27-20, failing to cover as 6-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Nevada (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) just fell to Fresno State 34-32, although the Wolfpack covered as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Nevada listed as a big 20.5-point home favorite. The public has no problem laying big points with Nevada against an 0-7 UNLV squad. This lopsided support briefly pushed the line up to 21. Since that time, we've seen buyback on UNLV with the line falling back to 20.5 or even 20 at some shops. Road conference dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 44-36 ATS (55%) this season. UNLV has a two-day rest advantage, having last played on October 21st while Nevada played October 23rd.
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Post by Makers on Oct 30, 2021 6:16:38 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Michigan at Michigan State
Michigan (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) is ranked 6th overall and just waxed Northwestern 33-7, covering as 23.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan State (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) is ranked 8th and coming off a bye. The Spartans edged Indiana 20-15 their last time out, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees two undefeated teams and says give me the points with home dog Michigan State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move from Michigan -3.5 to -4. It even reached -4.5 at times throughout the week. Essentially all liability is on the Wolverines despite the public backing trendy dog Michigan State. This signals wiseguy money backing road contrarian favorite Michigan. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 57% ATS the past decade.
12 p.m. ET: Iowa at Wisconsin
Iowa (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is ranked 9th in the country and is coming off a bye. The Hawkeyes just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Purdue 24-7 as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) was left for dead after starting the season 1-3. But now the Badgers have won three straight, including a 30-13 win over Purdue last week, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. If Iowa is the better team and ranked, then why are they getting points? The public is rushing to the window to grab Iowa, yet we've seen the line stay at Wisconsin -3 or even reach -3.5 at some shops. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" liability on contrarian favorite Wisconsin. We could also be looking at a low scoring game. The total has fallen from 37 to 36.5. Iowa is 5-2 to the under. Wisconsin is 4-3 to the under.
3:30 p.m. ET: Georgia at Florida
Georgia (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) enters this SEC clash ranked 1st overall in the country. The Bulldogs just beat Kentucky 30-13, although they failed to cover as 21.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Florida (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) is unranked and just fell to LSU 49-42, losing straight up as 12.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 14.5-point road favorite. The public sees another easy blowout and is happy to lay the points with Georgia. However, this line has ticked down from 14.5 to 14. This signals some wiseguy money buying low on Florida as a rare big home dog. The Gators are contrarian in a heavily bet game. Unranked home dogs against ranked opponents are 24-18 ATS (57%) this season.
7 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Auburn
Ole Miss (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is ranked 10th in the country and has won three straight games, most recently beating LSU 31-17, covering as 9-point home favorites. On the flip side, Auburn (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 18th and just crushed Arkansas 38-23, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is jumping all over Ole Miss as a dog due to their higher ranking and better record. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Auburn move from -1 to -3. This indicates respected money laying the points with Auburn. Auburn is also coming off a bye. Ranked home favorites off a bye are roughly 59% ATS the past decade. Both teams can put up points (Ole Miss 41.9 PPG and Auburn 35.4 PPG). The difference comes on defense, where Ole Miss is allowing 28.3 PPG and Auburn just 19.7 PPG.
7 p.m. ET: Kentucky at Mississippi State
Kentucky (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) is ranked 12th in the country and just hung tough with mighty Georgia, losing 30-13 but covering as 21.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Mississippi State (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) has won two of their last three games and just crushed Vanderbilt 45-6, easily covering as 20.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 1-point road favorite. Right off the bat, this line seems fishy. If Kentucky has a far better record and is ranked, then why are the Wildcats only laying a point? The public sees an easy win and cover with Kentucky, yet we've seen this line flip toward Mississippi State ( 1 to -1 or -1.5). This indicates sharp "dog to favorite" reverse line movement on Mississippi State.
7:30 p.m. ET: Penn State at Ohio State
Penn State (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 20th in the country and has lost two straight, most recently falling to unranked Illinois 20-18 in a 9 OT thriller, losing outright as 24.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio State (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has won five straight and is ranked 5th. The Buckeyes just crushed Indiana 54-7, easily covering as 21-point home favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 17-point home favorite. Pros and Joes aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're both laying the points with red-hot Ohio State, steaming the Buckeyes up from -17 to -19.5. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. Both teams have stellar defenses (PSU allows 14.71 PPG and OSU 18.57 PPG). The big difference comes on offense, where Ohio State is averaging 49.29 PPG and Penn State just 26.86.
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