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Post by Makers on Oct 31, 2021 5:42:10 GMT -5
Dogs have gone 59-49 ATS (55%). Conference dogs are 45-30 ATS (60%). Short road dogs 6 or less are 26-11 ATS (70%). Unders are 60-47 (56%). Non-conference unders are 20-12 (63%).
1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
The Titans (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three straight, including a pair of impressive wins over the Chiefs 27-3 and the Bills 34-31. Tennessee won outright as a 4-point and 6-point home dog, respectively. Meanwhile, the Colts (3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three of their last four games and just beat the 49ers 30-18, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. The early lookahead line on this game was Colts -2.5 at home. The public is all over the Titans after their pair of impressive wins and can't believe Tennessee is getting points. This overload of money flipped the Titans to -1.5 early in the week. But ever since, respected money has hammered Indianapolis, steaming the Colts back to a 25-point home favorite. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite Colts. We could also see a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 47.5 and has risen to 51. Both teams are 4-3 to the over this season.
4:05 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) are 2-1 over their last three games and just crushed the Jets 54-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a bye and just got demolished by the Ravens 34-6, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Justin Herbert and company off a bye. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 6 to 4.5. This indicates some respected money on Belichick and the Pats plus the points. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 41-32 ATS (56%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 36-20 ATS (64%). Short road dogs 6 or less are 26-11 ATS (70%). Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (58% ATS).
8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) are the only NFL team to cover every game this season. In their last game, Dallas outlasted New England 35-29 in overtime, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started 0-2 but have since gone 3-1, most recently beating the Panthers 34-28 in overtime, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public thought the line was way too good to be true and hammered red-hot Dallas laying a short number. This lopsided betting pushed the Cowboys up to -2.5. But then news broke about Dak Prescott's calf strain. With his status up in the air, we've seen an overload of big money pound the Vikings, flipping Minnesota to a 3-point home favorite. We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 53 to 51.5. Unders that stay the same or falla re 34-27 (56%) this season.
More Week 8 Moves
Dolphins-Bills Under 49.5 to 48.5
Bengals -8.5 to -11 at Jets
Browns -3 to -4 vs Steelers
Jaguars-Seahawks Over 43 to 44.5
Washington-Broncos Over 44 to 45
Bucs-Saints Under 50.5 to 48.5
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Post by Makers on Nov 1, 2021 7:45:38 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Both of these non-conference foes are looking to claw closer to .500. The Giants (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) just beat the Panthers 25-3, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for New York. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) have rotated wins and losses their last five games, most recently falling to Tennessee 27-3 and losing outright as 4-point road favorites. The Giants are -41 in point differential and the Chiefs are -15.
The early lookahead line for this game was Chiefs -13 at home. The game quickly adjusted to Kansas City listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public isn't concerned with the Chiefs struggling this season and two-thirds of bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Kansas City. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line remain frozen at 10. In fact, some books have dipped briefly to 9.5 throughout the week before ticking back up to 10. This signals some respected money leaning Giants plus the points.
New York matches several profitable betting systems this season. Road dogs are 43-28 ATS (60.6%) this season. Primetime dogs are 16-7 ATS (70%). It's also very rare for a dog to be getting 10 points on Monday Night Football. Over the past decade, MNF double-digit dogs are 16-4 ATS (80%). The Giants also have value as a contrarian dog in a heavily bet primetime game.
Respected money also appears to be leaning on the under. The total opened at 54 and has fallen to 52 despite a majority of bets taking the over. Non-conference unders are 22-13 ATS (62.9%) this season. Weather could play a factor here. The forecast calls for low 40s with 5 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
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Post by Makers on Nov 2, 2021 5:17:20 GMT -5
Early action is flowing for NFL Week 9...
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Both of these non-conference opponents have identical won-loss records and are coming off big road victories. The Patriots (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the Chargers 27-24, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Panthers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) just upset the Falcons 19-13, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The win snapped a 4-game losing skid for Carolina. This line opened with New England listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Respected money has pounced on the Patriots, steaming New England up from -2.5 to -3.5. Non-conference road favorites are 11-6 ATS (64.7%) this season. One big injury to monitor here is Panthers QB Sam Darnold. He left last week's game with a concussion and is questionable for this game. If he can't go, backup P.J. Walker will get the start. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. Respected under money has dropped the total down from 43 to 41. When the total is 45 or less, the under is 23-13 (63.9%) this season.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
This non-conference showdown is on track to be the most heavily bet game of the week. The Packers (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) have won seven straight games and just upset the Cardinals 24-21, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) have rotated wins and losses their last six games. Kansas City just beat the Giants 20-17 to get back to .500, although the Chiefs failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point home favorite. We've seen this line either stay the same or fall to 2.5, signaling pro money grabbing Green Bay at the key number of 3. Short road dogs 3 or less are 14-5 ATS (73.7%) this season. Road dogs are 44-28 ATS (61.1%). Green Bay also enjoys a massive rest vs tired advantage. The Packers last played on Thursday night while the Chiefs are on a short week and just played on Monday night.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams
This Sunday Night showdown features a pair of non-conference foes riding-four-game win streaks. The Titans (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) just upset the Colts 34-31, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams just dismissed the Texans 38-22, although Los Angeles failed to cover as 16.5-point road favorites. The lookahead line on this game was roughly Rams -4.5 at home. But with the news of Titans star RB Derrick Henry likely out for the year with a foot injury, we saw this line re-open at Rams -6.5 and quickly get steamed up to -7.5. Some shops look to be inching up to -8. Non-conference favorites are 21-16 ATS (56.8%) this season. Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a favorite with a high total (54). The more expected points scored, the easier it is for the favorite to cover. Newly acquired pass rusher Von Miller could also make his Rams debut in this game.
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Post by Makers on Nov 4, 2021 6:58:34 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Georgia State at Louisiana
This Sun Belt clash features two red-hot conference foes riding winning streaks. Georgia State (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) has won three straight and just took down Georgia Southern 21-14, covering as 6-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Louisiana (7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) has won seven straight and just crushed Texas State 45-0, easily covering as 21-point home favorites. This line opened with Louisiana listed as an 11-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Louisiana, steaming the home team up from -11 to -12. Louisiana is beating their opponents by an average score of 32-19 this season. Georgia State is losing by an average score of 24-30. We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 53 to 54. Georgia State is 5-3 to the over but Louisiana is 7-1 to the under. The forecast calls for mid 50s, mostly cloudy with 8 MPH winds.
8:20 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Both of these non-division AFC foes are looking to claw their way back to .500. The Jets (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) just shocked the Bengals 34-31, winning outright as 11.5-point home dogs. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for New York. Meanwhile, the Colts (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) just fell to the Titans 35-31 in overtime, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. The loss snapped a two-game winning streak for Indianapolis.
This line opened with the Colts listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. We've seen a line freeze pretty much all week, although some books are juicing up the Jets 10.5 to -115, signaling some sneaky liability on the road dog. The next move will be critical. If we start to see this line fall to 10 on game-day, that will indicate further Jets support. If the line jumps closer to -11, that will signal late Colts money.
The Jets match several profitable betting systems. Road dogs are 43-28 ATS (61%) this season and conference dogs are 52-32 ATS (62%). Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 27-17 ATS (61%). Primetime dogs have gone a sparkling 17-7 ATS (71%). The Jets also have buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (2-5) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (5-3).
Respected money also appears to be leaning under as we've seen the total fall from 46.5 to 45.5. Unders are 67-54 (55%) this season. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (57.4%).
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Post by Makers on Nov 5, 2021 5:19:13 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech at Boston College
This ACC clash features a pair of 4-4 teams looking to get above .500. Virginia Tech (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) just took down Georgia Tech 26-17 last week, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This win snapped a three-game losing skid for Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, Boston College (4-4 SU. 4-4 ATS) is mired in a tailspin. After starting the season 4-0, the Eagles have now lost four straight, most recently falling to Syracuse 21-6, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Hokies and bet against tanking Boston College. Every time this lopsided betting pushed the line to 3.5, we saw sharp buyback on BC plus the hook, bringing the line back down to 3. This signals some reverse line movement and line freeze liability on the Eagles, who also have value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet game. Conference home dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 27-23 ATS (54%) this season. The Eagles will be wearing their "Red Bandana" uniforms to honor Welles Crowther, who died saving others in the 9/11 attacks. We've also seen some over money push this total up from 46.5 to 47.5. Both teams are 6-2 to the under this season.
10:30 p.m. ET: Utah at Stanford
These Pac 12 rivals are trending in opposite directions. Utah (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) has won four of their last five games and just took down UCLA 44-24, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side. Stanford (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) has lost three straight and just fell to Washington 20-13, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Utah listed as a 6-point road favorite. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the chalk with red-hot Utah, steaming the Utes up from -6 to -9. One big reason for the line move: Stanford QB Tanner McKee is questionable with an undisclosed injury. Stanford WR Elijah Higgins could also miss this game due to injury. Both teams are giving up roughly 26 PPG. The difference comes on offense, where Utah is averaging 33.4 PPG compared to Stanford's 24.9 . Respected money has also hit the over, driving the total up from 52 to 54. Utah is 6-2 to the over this season. Stanford is 5-3 to the under.
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Post by Makers on Nov 6, 2021 5:37:34 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Wake Forest at North Carolina
This ACC grudge match features one of the most perplexing lines of the day. Wake Forest (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 9th in the country. Wake Forest just crushed Duke 45-7 last week, easily covering as 16-point home favorites. On the flip side, North Carolina (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) had high expectations coming into the season but unranked and have lost two of their last three games. North Carolina fell to Notre Dame 44-34 last week, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with North Carolina listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. If Wake Forest is highly ranked and undefeated, why are they the dog? The public is rushing to the window to take the points with Wake, yet we've seen this line stay at UNC -2.5. This signals sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" wiseguy money laying the points with the contrarian favorite TarHeels.
3:30 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Purdue
This Big Ten showdown is the most heavily bet and also the most lopsided game of Saturday's slate. Michigan State (8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 3rd in the country. The Spartans are coming off a signature win over rival Michigan, winning 37-33 as 4-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Purdue (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) has rotated wins and losses their last six games, but just beat Nebraska 28-23, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is shocked the red-hot Spartans are only laying three points against an unranked Purdue squad. However, despite nearly 8 or 9 out of 10 bets backing Michigan State, this line has remained frozen at 3. Why hasn't it been adjusted up to -4 or -5? This signals a sharp line freeze with home dog Purdue. Oddsmakers have taken a position on Purdue and refuse to hand out a hook to brave Boilermakers bettors. Purdue is the top contrarian play of the day. Home unranked dogs against ranked opponents are 26-19 ATS (58%) this season. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 52 to 54.
7 p.m. ET: Tennessee at Kentucky
Both of these SEC foes are looking to snap two-game losing streaks. Tennessee (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) just got waxed by Alabama 52-24, failing to cover as 25-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Kentucky (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) just fell to Mississippi State 31-17, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees that Kentucky is ranked 18th and Tennessee is unranked, so naturally they are happy to lay the points with the Wildcats at home. However, we've actually seen this line fall to pick'em, with some shops even hopping the fence to Tennessee -1. This signals heavy respected money getting down on Tennessee. The Vols enjoy a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and Kentucky played last week. The difference may come on offense. The Vols are averaging 37 PPG compared to the Wildcats putting up 27 PPG.
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Post by Makers on Nov 7, 2021 8:00:40 GMT -5
Today the weekend wraps up with Week 9 of the NFL regular season. Up until this point, underdogs have been a smart bet. Dogs are 68-54 ATS (56%) this season. Home field advantage isn't what it used to be as road dogs have gone an impressive 43-29 ATS (60%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 42-22 ATS (65.6%) while primetime dogs are a sparkling 17-8 ATS (68%). Unders are 67-55 (55%) while non-conference unders are 23-13 (64%).
We've also seen windy unders turn a profit. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 23-14 (62%). Here are today's windy under system matches
Bills-Jags Under 48.5
Texans-Dolphins Under 46.5
Patriots Panthers Under 41.5
Packers-Chiefs Under 48
4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
These non-conference foes are coming off polar opposite Week 8 performances. The Chargers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Patriots 27-24, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) just crushed the Lions 44-6, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is laying the short number with Justin Herbert, yet we've seen the Chargers fall from -3 to -1.5. This signals an overload of respected money grabbing the points with the Eagles at home. Short dogs 6 or less with a line move in their favor are 58-37 ATS (61.1%) over the last two seasons. Jerome Boger, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (55.2% ATS). The Eagles are also in a prime teaser spot ( 1.5 to 7.5), which passes through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7.
4:25 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
This NFC West grudge match is one of the most lopsided games of the week. The Cardinals (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to the Packers 24-21 and losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) finally got back in the win column with a 33-22 victory over the Bears, covering as 4.5-point road favorites. The win snapped a 4-game losing skid for San Francisco. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the high-flying Cardinals. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line completely flip from 49ers 3 to -3. This signals big money backing the 49ers at home. San Francisco has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (2-5) against a "good" ATS team (6-2). One reason for the big line move: Kyler Murray is questionable with an ankle injury.
4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
This non-conference showdown is one of the most heavily bet games of the week. The Packers (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) have won seven straight games and just upset the Cardinals 24-21, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) have rotated wins and losses their last six games. Kansas City just beat the Giants 20-17 to get back to .500, although the Chiefs failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point home favorite. Early Packers money dropped Green Bay from 3 all the way down to a pick'em. But then once it was announced QB Aaron Rodgers would miss the game due to COVID, we saw the line shoot up to Chiefs -7.5. The public is happy to bet against Jordan Love, yet we saw some sharp buyback on Green Bay 7.5, dropping the line back down to 7. Green Bay has value as a buy-low inflated dog. The Packers also enjoy a massive rest vs tired advantage. The Packers last played on Thursday night while the Chiefs are on a short week having just played on Monday night. Green Bay will welcome back star WR Davante Adams from the COVID list. Kansas City is just 9-15 ATS (37.5%) since winning the Super Bowl two years ago.
8:20 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams
This Sunday Night showdown features a pair of non-conference foes riding-four-game win streaks. The Titans (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) just upset the Colts 34-31, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams just dismissed the Texans 38-22, although Los Angeles failed to cover as 16.5-point road favorites. The lookahead line on this game was roughly Rams -4.5 at home. But with the news of Titans star RB Derrick Henry likely out for the year with a foot injury, we saw this line re-open at Rams -6.5 and quickly get steamed up to -7.5. Some sharp buyback hit the 7.5, dropping the line back down to 7 at most shops. Similar to the Packers, the Titans have value as a buy-low inflated dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 17-8 ATS (68%) this season. Road dogs are 43-29 ATS (60%).
More Sunday Moves Texans 7 to 5.5 at Dolphins Cowboys -8.5 to -10 vs Broncos Patriots -2.5 to -3.5 at Panthers Browns 3 to 2.5 at Bengals
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Post by Makers on Nov 8, 2021 6:36:00 GMT -5
NFL underdogs continued their season-long hot streak on Sunday, going 9-3 ATS across Week 9 action. Dogs improve to 77-57 ATS (58%) on the season. In yet another example of home field advantage not being what it used to be, road dogs went 7-1 ATS yesterday to improve to 50-30 ATS (63%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) and short road dogs 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%).
We also saw windy unders 10 MPH or more go 4-0 on Sunday. They are now 28-14 (67%) on the season.
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Post by Makers on Nov 8, 2021 6:37:21 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers
This Monday Night showdown features a pair of non-conference opponents trending in opposite directions. The Bears (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) have lost three straight games and just fell to the 49ers 33-22, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Steelers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) have won three straight games and just beat the Browns 15-10, winning outright as 5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Earlier in the week we saw this line fall from 6.5 to 6, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Bears. However, we saw some strong late buyback in recent days on the Steelers, with Pittsburgh getting steamed back up to -7, which is where we stand now. Chicago has value as a road dog (50-30 ATS, 62% this season) and a primetime dog (18-8 ATS, 69%).
We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total opened at 40 and respected under money has dropped it down to 39. Non-conference unders are 28-15 (65%) this season. If the total is 45 or less, the under is 25-15 (63%). When the total stays the same or falls, the under is 42-35 (55%). Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (58%). The forecast calls for mid 50s, clear skies and 5 MPH winds. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under, with the Bears 6-2 to the under and the Steelers 5-1-1 to the under.
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Post by Makers on Nov 9, 2021 8:02:09 GMT -5
Early NFL Line Moves
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Both of these AFC non-division foes are "in the hunt" when it comes to the playoff conversation. The Browns (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bengals 41-16 last week, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three straight and just waxed the Panthers 24-6, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on the Browns, dropping Cleveland from 3 to 1. Short road dogs 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%) this season. Dogs off a blowout win of 20-points or more are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past two seasons. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 44.5 to 45.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
Both of these NFC non-division opponents are coming off bye weeks. The Bucs (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 36-27 loss to the Saints, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Tampa Bay. On the other hand, Washington (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS) has lost four straight games, most recently falling to the Broncos 17-10 and failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. After an early lookahead line listed the Bucs as a 7.5-point road favorite, we've seen respected money rush to the window to back Tampa Day, driving this line up to Bucs -9.5 or even -10 at some shops. Favorites off a bye are roughly 57% ATS the past decade with road favorites off a bye roughly 65% ATS. One glaring advantage for Tampa Bay is their offensive firepower. Tom Brady and the Bucs are averaging 32.5 PPG on offense while Washington is averaging just 19.5 PPG.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
This Sunday Night showdown features a pair of division rivals battling for first place in the AFC West. The Chiefs (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, most recently edging the Packers 13-7 but failing to cover as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just fell to the Giants 23-16, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. The loss snapped a two-game win streak for Vegas. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Kansas City, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement targeting the Raiders at the key number of 3. Conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) this season. Primetime dogs are 19-8 ATS (70%). The Raiders also have value as a contrarian divisional dog in a heavily bet game. The Chiefs are just 9-16 ATS (36%) since winning the Super Bowl.
More Week 10 Moves
Ravens-Dolphins Under 48 to 46.5
Falcons-Cowboys Over 52 to 54.5
Vikings 3 to 2.5 at Chargers
Broncos -1.5 to -2.5 vs Eagles
Seahawks 5 to 4 at Packers
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Post by Makers on Nov 10, 2021 6:52:20 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Toledo at Bowling Green
This MAC showdown features two losing teams looking to get back to .500. Toledo (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) started the season 3-2 but has gone just 1-3 since, most recently falling to Eastern Michigan 52-49 and losing outright as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Bowling Green (3-6 SU, 7-2 ATS) just took down Buffalo 56-44, winning outright as 13.5-point road dogs. The win snapped a four-game losing streak for Bowling Green. This line opened with Toledo listed as a 9-point road favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to back. But respected money has sided with Toledo, driving the road favorite up from -9 to -10.5. Toledo has the edge both offensively (30.8 PPG vs 23.6 PPG) and defensively (22 PPG vs 30.6 PPG). The total opened at 50.5 and has fallen to 50, signaling some respected under money. The forecast calls for low 50s with 10 MPH winds. Toledo is 6-3 to the under. Bowling Green is 5-4 to the under.
7 p.m. ET: Ball State at Northern Illinois
These MAC foes are battling for a top spot in the conference standings. Ball State (5-4 SU) is on a roll as of late. After starting the season 1-3, the Cardinals have gone 4-1 since, including a 31-25 win over Akron last week. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (6-3 SU) just fell to Kent State 52-47, which snapped a five-game winning streak for the Huskies. This line opened with Ball State listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with red-hot Ball State. However, this line has remained frozen at 2.5 and even dipped to 2 briefly. This signals some liability on home dog Northern Illinois. Home conference dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 37-29 ATS (56%) this season. MACtion dogs are 22-10 ATS (69%). We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 62.5 to 61.5. Weather could play a factor here. The forecast calls for 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 66-43 (61%) this season.
8 p.m. ET: Kent State at Central Michigan
Both of these MAC rivals are looking to continue their hot streaks. Kent State (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won two straight and four of their last five, including a 52-47 win over Northern Illinois last week, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Central Michigan (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won three of their last four games, most recently beating Western Michigan 42-30 last week, winning outright as 9-point road dogs. This line opened with Central Michigan listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is laying the short number with the home favorite, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. This indicates wiseguy action taking the points with Kent State, triggering reverse line movement in their favor. Short road dogs 4 or less are 44-39 ATS (53%) this season. We could be in for a shootout here. The total opened at 72 and has been bet up to 75.
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Post by Makers on Nov 11, 2021 6:22:51 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: North Carolina at Pittsburgh
This battle between ACC rivals is the only College Football game of the night, so it will garner a lot of eyes and high ticket counts. North Carolina (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) is coming off a big 58-55 win over Wake Forest, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) is ranked 21st in the country and just dismissed Duke 54-29, covering as 21-point road favorites. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 6-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Pittsburgh, pushing the Panthers up from -6 to -6.5. Both of these teams can put up a lot of points (38.9 PPG for UNC and 45 PPG for Pitt). The difference comes on defense. North Carolina is allowing 33.4 PPG while Pitt is only giving up 22.7 PPG.
We've also seen some money hit the under, dropping the total from 74 to 73. Weather could play a factor, as the forecast calls for low 60s with 15 MPH winds and possibly some rain. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 66-43 (61%) this season.
8:20 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
These non-division AFC opponents are at opposite ends of the standings. The Ravens (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) lead the AFC North and just beat the Vikings 34-31 last week, although Baltimore failed to cover as a 7-point home favorite. On the flip side, the Dolphins (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) sit in last place in the AFC East. Miami beat Houston 17-9 last week, covering as 4-point home favorites. The win snapped a 7-game losing streak for the Dolphins. Baltimore is 26 in point differential. Miami is -87.
This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. Heavy betting has poured in on Baltimore, steaming the Ravens up from -6.5 to -7.5. Baltimore will be a popular teaser play (-7.5 down to -1.5), which takes you through the key numbers of 7 and 3. At this point, the Dolphins present intriguing buy-low value. Miami is contrarian in a heavily bet game, as roughly 75% or more of bets are laying the chalk Baltimore. Primetime dogs are 19-8 ATS (70%) this season. Conference dogs are 56-34 ATS (62%).
We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46.5. Unders are 74-61 (55%) this season. Primetime overs are 14-12 (54%).
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Post by Makers on Nov 12, 2021 7:31:53 GMT -5
6 p.m. ET: Cincinnati at South Florida
This AAC showdown features two conference opponents at opposite ends of the won-loss spectrum. Cincinnati (9-0) is undefeated and ranked 5th overall in the country. Cincinnati just edged Tulsa 28-20, although the Bearcats failed to cover as 22.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, South Florida (2-7) is unranked and has two in a row. The Bulls are just 1-5 over their last six games, most recently falling to Houston 54-42 but covering as 13.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 23.5-point road favorite. The public expects a blowout and isn't scared off by the big chalk number for Cincinnati. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from Cincinnati -23.5 to -23. This signals some reverse line movement on home dog South Florida. Unranked home dogs against ranked opponents are 32-24 ATS (57%) this season. Home conference dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 37-29 ATS (56%).
9 p.m. ET: Wyoming at Boise State
This late night Mountain West clash features two teams with identical records. Wyoming (5-4 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) started the season 4-0 but then lost four straight until last week, when Wyoming beat Colorado State 31-17 as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Boise State (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) has won two in a row and three of their last four, including a 40-14 win over Fresno State last week, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 14-point home favorite. Respected money seems to be leaning with Wyoming as we've seen the line fall from 14 to 13.5. Wyoming has buy-low value as a bad ATS team (2-6-1) against a sell-high good ATS team (6-3). We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 47.5 to 48.5.
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Post by Makers on Nov 13, 2021 6:16:50 GMT -5
When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 68-43 (51%) this season. If the wind blows 10 MPH or more and the total falls at least a point, the under is 38-19 (67%).
Here are the Windy Under system matches for today
Tulane-Tulsa Under 58.5 to 55.5
Temple-Houston Under 53.5 to 52.5
Old Dominion-Florida Atlantic Under 49.5 to 48.5
Appalachian State-South Alabama Under 54 to 52
College Football games today...
12 p.m. ET: Oklahoma at Baylor
These Big 12 rivals are fighting for the top spot in the conference. Oklahoma (9-0 SU, 4-5 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 4th in the country. The Sooners just beat Texas Tech 52-21, easily covering as 19-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Baylor (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) is ranked 18th but just fell to TCU 30-28, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Sooners, yet we've seen this line fall from 6 to 5.5, with some shops even down to 5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on home dog Baylor. The Bears have value as a contrarian home conference dog with a line move in their favor. We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 62 to 63. Both teams are 6-3 to the over this season.
12 p.m. ET: Mississippi State at Auburn
Both of these SEC rivals are looking to bounce back from tough losses. Mississippi State (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) is unranked and just fell to Arkansas 31-28, although the Bulldogs covered as a 4-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Auburn (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) is ranked 16h but just lost to Texas A&M 20-3, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Auburn. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has fallen from 5.5 to 5. This indicates some wiseguy action on Mississippi State plus the points. The Bulldogs have value as a buy-low road unranked conference dog vs a ranked opponent.
12 p.m. ET: Michigan at Penn State
This Big Ten clash features two teams in the hunt for the conference title. Michigan (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) is ranked 9th and just dismissed Indiana 29-7, covering as 20.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Penn State (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) is unranked but just beat Maryald 31-14, easily covering as 10-point road favorites. This line opened at a pick'em. Pros and Joes both seem to be backing the Wolverines as we've seen Michigan move from a pick'em to a 1.5-point road favorite. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 55% ATS over the past decade. The total has fallen from 48.5 to 48, signaling some respected under money. The forecast calls for cold mid 30s temperatures with 10-15 MPH winds. Michigan is 5-4 to the under and Penn State is 7-2 to the under.
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Post by Makers on Nov 14, 2021 6:42:42 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
The Saints (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a disappointing 27-25 loss to the Falcons, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) have won five straight and just shocked the Rams 28-16, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Titans coming off a big win, yet this line hasn't budged an inch. This indicates a sharp line freeze on the Saints. Road dogs are 51-30 ATS (63%) this season and short road dogs 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%). Road dogs off a loss are 25-18 ATS (58%)...
1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
The Browns (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bengals 41-16 last week, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three straight and just waxed the Panthers 24-6, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the Browns, dropping Cleveland from 3 to 2.5. Throughout the week, Cleveland even touched 1.5 before the news of Nick Chubb missing this game due to COVID rose the line back to 2.5. Short road dogs 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%) this season and conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%). Dogs off a blowout win of 20-points or more are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past two seasons. Cleveland is also in a prime teaser spot ( 2.5 to 8.5), which takes you through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7
4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
The Seahawks (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-7 win over the Jags, easily covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) just fell to the Chiefs 13-7 without Aaron Rodgers, although Jordan Love was able to help the Packers cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 5 to 3.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the Seahawks plus the points. One big reason for the move toward Seattle: star QB Russell Wilson was cleared to return from his finger injury. The Seahawks have a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Packers played on Sunday. Short road dogs 6 or less 33-14 ATS (70%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 56-34 ATS (62%). Seattle also has value as a dog off a blowout win of 20 points. These teams are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past two seasons.
8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, most recently edging the Packers 13-7 but failing to cover as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just fell to the Giants 23-16, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. The loss snapped a two-game win streak for Vegas. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Kansas City, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement targeting the Raiders at the key number of 3. Conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) this season. Primetime dogs are 20-8 ATS (71%). The Raiders also have value as a contrarian divisional dog in a heavily bet game. The Chiefs are just 9-16 ATS (36%) since winning the Super Bowl.
More Week 10 Line Moves
Falcons 9 to 8 at Cowboys
Lions 9 to 6.5 at Steelers (No Big Ben)
Vikings-Chargers Over 52 to 53.5
Panthers-Cardinals Under 45 to 43
Eagles 2.5 to 1.5 at Broncos
49ers 4.5 to 3.5 vs Rams
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