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Post by Makers on Nov 27, 2021 6:31:47 GMT -5
Here are today's "windy under" matches
Arkansas State-Texas State Under 62
Temple-Navy Under Under 42.5
Connecticut-Houston Under 54.5
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Post by Makers on Nov 28, 2021 7:01:51 GMT -5
Road dogs have gone 63-36 ATS (64%) while road dogs 7 or less are a whopping 52-19 ATS (73%).
Here are today's "road dog 7 or less" matches
Titans 7 at Patriots
Browns 3.5 at Ravens
Vikings 3.5 at 49ers
Steelers 3.5 at Bengals
Jets 2.5 at Texans
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Post by Makers on Nov 28, 2021 7:05:06 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
The Bucs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) just dominated the Giants 30-10, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) have won three straight and are 6-2 in their last 8 games. Indianapolis just crushed Buffalo 41-15, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Tom Brady and the defending champs. However, this line has remained frozen at 3 and even dipped to 2.5 throughout the week, signaling liability on the Colts plus the points. Dogs off a blowout win of 20 points are 17-11 ATS (61%) over the past two seasons. The Colts have a rest advantage as Tampa Bay is on a short week having just played on Monday night.
4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
The Rams (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost two straight games, most recently falling to the 49ers 31-10, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Packers (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Vikings 34-31, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. However, this line has completely flipped to Rams -2. This indicates sharp "Dog to Favorite" line movement on Los Angeles, who enjoys a rest advantage and are coming off a bye. Sean McVay is 14-7 ATS (67%) off a loss in his career. We've also seen some wiseguy money hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (30 degrees) and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 35-16 (69%) this season.
8:20 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Browns (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a 13-10 win over the Lions, although Cleveland failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) just edged the Bears 16-13, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 5-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the road dog Browns, dropping Cleveland from 5 to 3.5. Many books are juicing up the Browns 3.5 to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to the key number of 3. Divisional dogs are 57% ATS this season, with primetime dogs are 22-12 ATS (65%). The total is 47. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds. Late season divisional unders are roughly 56% the last decade.
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Post by Makers on Nov 30, 2021 6:36:50 GMT -5
Early action for NFL Week 13.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
This Thursday Night matchup features two teams looking to snap losing streaks. The Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and three of their last four, most recently falling to the Raiders 36-33 on Thanksgiving as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) have lost four straight and just got crushed by the Bills 31-6, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. We've seen big money jump on the Saints, dropping the line from 5.5 to 4.5. The major reason for the line move is a COVID situation with the Cowboys, who will be without several players and coaches, including Mike McCarthy. Taysom Hill is expected to start for New Orleans. Dogs off a 20 point blowout loss are 14-9 ATS (61%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 57-32 ATS (64%). San Francisco 49ers at Seattle SeahawksThese NFC West foes are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won three straight and just took down the Vikings 34-26, covering as 4-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Seahawks (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) have lost three straight and are just 1-6 over their last seven games. Seattle just fell to Washington 17-15, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Some early openers were closer to a pick'em. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves and have laid the points with San Francisco, driving the line up to 49ers -3. San Francisco has a rest advantage as the Seahawks played on Monday Night and are now on a short week. Respected money has hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. The under is 9-1-1 in Seahawks games this season. New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsThe top spot in the AFC East is up for grabs in this Monday Night showdown. The Patriots (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) are riding a 6-game win streak and just crushed the Titans 36-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are a mediocre 3-3 over their last six games, but just beat the Saints 31-6 as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on New England, dropping the line from 3.5 to 3. The Patriots 3 is also juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to 2.5. Short road dogs 3 or less are 17-10 ATS (63%) this season. Divisional dogs are 26-20 ATS (57%). We've also seen some under money drop the total from 45 to 44. The forecast calls for high 20s in Buffalo with 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 35-20 (64%). More Week 13 Moves
Cardinals -7 to -8 at Bears Bucs -9.5 to -11 at Falcons Colts -7 to -9 at Texans Bengals -2.5 to -3 vs Chargers Giants-Dolphins Under 43.5 to 42 Chiefs-Broncos Under 49 to 47
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Post by Makers on Dec 1, 2021 6:46:33 GMT -5
CFB Conference Championship Sharp Report
12 p.m. ET: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
This Big 12 Championship game will be played at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Baylor (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) is ranked 9th and just beat Texas Tech 27-24, although the Bears failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) is ranked 5th and just edged Oklahoma 37-33, pushing as a 4-point home favorite. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the higher ranked Cowboys. However, we've seen this line fall from 6.5 to 5.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with Baylor. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 48 to 46.5.
3 p.m. ET: Utah State vs. San Diego State This Mountain West Championship game will be played in Carson, California. Utah State (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) is unranked and coming off a 35-10 win over New Mexico, covering as 17-point road favorites. On the other hand, San Diego State (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is ranked 19th and just upset Boise State 27-16, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on San Diego State, steaming the Aztecs up from -4.5 to -6. Both teams are averaging roughly 30 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where Utah State is allowing 26 PPG compared to just 17 PPG allowed for San Diego State. The total has dipped slightly from 50.5 to 50. Both teams are 7-5 to the under this season.
4 p.m. ET: Georgia vs. Alabama
This SEC Championship game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Georgia (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 1st in the country. The Bulldogs just crushed Georgia Tech 45-0, covering as 35.5-point road favorites. Now they face Alabama (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS), who is ranked 3rd overall. The Crimson Tide just beat Auburn 24-22, although they failed to cover as 20.5-point road favorites. Roughly a month ago, the lookahead line on this game was Georgia listed as a 3-point favorite. This line has quickly shot up to Georgia -6.5 behind heavily lopsided public support. Roughly 75% of bets are laying the points with the top ranked Bulldogs. This lopsided betting creates a rare contrarian inflated line opportunity to buy low and take Alabama, especially if they reach the key number of 7. Alabama hasn't been a dog since 2015 when they beat Georgia 38-10 as a 1.5-point dog.
More Saturday Moves California -2.5 to -4 vs USC Houston-Cincinnati Under 55 to 53 Appalachian State -2 to -3 at Louisiana Kent State-NIU Over 72 to 74.5
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Post by Makers on Dec 1, 2021 8:07:27 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Dec 1, 2021 8:51:41 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Dec 2, 2021 7:14:49 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
This Thursday Night matchup features two NFC teams looking to snap losing streaks. The Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and three of their last four, most recently falling to the Raiders 36-33 on Thanksgiving as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) have lost four straight and just got crushed by the Bills 31-6 on Thanksgiving, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public is all over Dallas, with 81% of bets at DraftKings laying the points with the Cowboys. However, we've seen this line fall from 5.5 to 4.5. The major reason for the line move is a COVID situation with the Cowboys, who will be without two players and six coaches, including head coach Mike McCarthy. The line even reached 4 at some shops, but then ticked back up to 4.5 or 5 when Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb were upgraded to probable. Taysom Hill will get the start for New Orleans.
The Saints have value as a contrarian dog only getting 19% of bets in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 23-13 ATS (64%) this season. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20 points are 14-9 ATS (61%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 57-32 ATS (64%). Sean Payton is 4-2 ATS as a dog this season and 45-27 ATS (62%) in his career.
The Saints are a teaser candidate as well ( 4.5 to 10.5), which goes through multiple key numbers.
The total hasn't budged off the opener of 47.5. Primetime unders are 19-16 (54%) on the season, but are a blistering 17-8 (68%) over the past two months.
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Post by Makers on Dec 3, 2021 7:04:56 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Western Kentucky vs UTSA (Brys Chickens)
This is the Conference USA Championship game. Western Kentucky (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) started just 1-4 but has since won seven straight. The Hilltoppers just crushed Marshall 53-21, easily covering as 1-point road favorites. Meanwhile, UTSA (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) saw their undefeated season end last week, falling to North Texas 45-23 as 8.5-point road favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Some shops opened UTSA as a slight favorite. Either way, we've seen an overload of respected money pound Western Kentucky, :( flipping the Hilltoppers to -3.5. If you want to follow the line move but are wary of laying the spread since it's moved, Western Kentucky is -160 on the moneyline. The Hilltoppers' advantage comes on offense. They are averaging 43.3 PPG on the season, while UTSA is averaging 36.9 PPG. The total opened at a high 72 and has been bet up to 72.5 or 73. The game will be played indoors at the Alamodome. These teams met on October 9 and UTSA won 52-46.
8 p.m. ET: Oregon vs Utah
This PAC 12 Championship is the most heavily bet game of the night. It will take place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, home of the Raiders. Oregon (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) is ranked 10th and just beat Oregon State 38-29, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Utah (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) is ranked 17th and has won five straight, most recently edging Colorado 28-13 but failing to cover as 24-point home favorites. This line opened with Utah listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public is leaning Utah because they remember the Utes crushing the Ducks 38-7 just two weeks ago, easily winning outright as 3-point home dogs. However, despite this public Utah betting we've seen the line dip from 3 to 2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Ducks in a revenge game. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 60 to 58. Both teams average more than 200 rushing yards per game. Historically, teams who run the ball well chew up the clock and benefit the under.
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Post by Makers on Dec 4, 2021 7:12:53 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Kent State vs Northern Illinois
This is the MAC Championship game. It will be played inside the dome at Ford Field in Detroit, home of the Lions. Kent State (7-5) has won two straight and just beat Miami Ohio 48-47. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (8-4) is just 2-2 over their last four games and just fell to Western Michigan 42-21. This line opened with Kent State listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has poured in on Kent State, steaming the Golden Flashes up from -2 to -3.5. We've also seen sharp money hit the over, raising the already high total from 72 to 74.5. The over is getting 48% of bets but 82% of money, signaling wiseguy support. Both of these teams are averaging roughly 31 PPG on offense and giving up roughly 34 PPG on defense. These teams met back on November 3 and Kent State won 52-47.
12 p.m. ET: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
This Big 12 Championship game will be played at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Baylor (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) is ranked 9th and just beat Texas Tech 27-24, although the Bears failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) is ranked 5th and just edged Oklahoma 37-33, pushing as a 4-point home favorite. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the higher ranked Cowboys. However, we've seen this line fall from 6.5 to 6. Some shops even touched 5.5 throughout the week, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with Baylor. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 48 to 46. Baylor is 3-0 to the under their last three games.
3 p.m. ET: Utah State vs. San Diego State
This Mountain West Championship game will be played in Carson, California. Utah State (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) is unranked and coming off a 35-10 win over New Mexico, covering as 17-point road favorites. On the other hand, San Diego State (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is ranked 19th and just upset Boise State 27-16, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on San Diego State, steaming the Aztecs up from -4.5 to -6. Both teams are averaging roughly 30 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where Utah State is allowing 26 PPG compared to just 17 PPG allowed for San Diego State. The total has dipped slightly from 50.5 to 49.5. Both teams are 7-5 to the under this season.
4 p.m. ET: Georgia vs. Alabama
This SEC Championship game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Georgia (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 1st in the country. The Bulldogs just crushed Georgia Tech 45-0, covering as 35.5-point road favorites. Now they face Alabama (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS), who is ranked 3rd overall. The Crimson Tide just beat Auburn 24-22, although they failed to cover as 20.5-point road favorites. Roughly a month ago, the lookahead line on this game was Georgia listed as a 3-point favorite. This line has quickly shot up to Georgia -6.5 behind heavily lopsided public support. Roughly 75% of bets are laying the points with the top ranked Bulldogs. This lopsided betting creates a rare contrarian inflated line opportunity to buy low and take Alabama, especially if they reach the key number of 7. Alabama hasn't been a dog since 2015 when they beat Georgia 38-10 as a 1.5-point dog. The total has fallen from 50.5 to 49.5, indicating some respected under money.
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Post by Makers on Dec 5, 2021 7:41:56 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
The Bucs (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won two straight and just beat the Colts 38-31, covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) just beat the Jaguars 21-14, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for Atlanta. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Bucs, driving Tampa Bay up from -9.5 to -11. The last two times these teams played, the Bucs won by 17 points (44-27) and 23 points (48-25). Tampa Bay is averaging 32 PPG on offense compared to just 18 PPG for Atlanta. Tampa Bay is a teaser candidate (-11 to -5), which goes through the key numbers of 10 and 7..
4:05 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders
Washington (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) is riding a three-game winning streak and just edged the Seahawks 17-15 on Monday Night, winning outright as a 1.5-point home dog. Meanwhile, the Raiders (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) are just 1-3 over their last four games, although they did upset the Cowboys 36-33 on Thanksgiving as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Vegas listed as a 3-point home favorite. Sharp money has gotten down hard on Washington, dropping this line 3 to 1.5. Road dogs 7 or less are 53-22 ATS (71%) this season. Road dogs in which the line stays the same or moves in their favor are 30-25 ATS (55%). Washington is in a prime teaser spot ( 1.5 to 7.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. The total has dipped from 49.5 to 48. Non-conference unders are 38-20 (66%) this season. Adrian Hill, the lead referee, is 27-15 (64%) to the under. The Raiders will be without star TE Darren Waller, who is out with a knee injury.
8:20 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) have won three of their last four games and just upset the Chargers 28-13, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, the Chiefs (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) have won four straight and just dismissed the Cowboys 19-9, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This line has either stayed at 9.5 or inched down to 9 at some shops, indicating respected money leaning with the Broncos and the points. Teddy Bridgewater is 26-8 ATS (76%) as a dog in his career. Primetime dogs are 23-14 ATS (62%) this season and road divisional dogs are 18-12 ATS (60%). This is also a winder under bet. The total fell from 49 to 47 with the weather forecast expecting 15-20 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 35-20 (64%).
More Week 13 Moves
Ravens -3 to -4.5 at Steelers
Jaguars 13.5 to 13 at Rams
Dolphins -3 to -6.5 vs Giants (No Daniel Jones)
Giants-Dolphins Under 42 to 39.5
Jets 7 to 5 vs Eagles (No Jalen Hurts)
Vikings-Lions Under 47.5 to 46.5
Cardinals-Bears Under 46 to 42
Colts -7.5 to -10 at Texans
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Post by Makers on Dec 5, 2021 7:45:20 GMT -5
Here are today's Windy Unders matches
Cardinals-Bears Under 42
Giants-Dolphins Under 39.5
Broncos-Chiefs Under 47
Chargers-Bengals Under 50
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Post by Makers on Dec 6, 2021 7:52:34 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
First place in the AFC East is on the line in this big Monday Night Football showdown.The Patriots (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) are riding a 6-game win streak and just crushed the Titans 36-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are a mediocre 3-3 over their last six games, but just beat the Saints 31-6 as 7-point road favorites. The Patriots are 146 in point differential. The Bills are 144.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has leaned New England, dropping the line from 3 to 2.5. Short road dogs 3 or less are 19-10 ATS (66%) this season. Divisional dogs are 29-23 ATS (56%). Primetime dogs are 23-15 ATS (61%). The Patriots are also in a key teaser spot: by taking New England from 2.5 to 8.5 bettors are able to go through the two key numbers of 3 and 7.
We've also seen some heavy money target the under, dropping the total from 45 to 41. A big reason for the under getting steamed is the weather forecast. It's expected to be 30 degrees with 20 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 37-21 (64%). Late season (Week 12 and on) divisional unders are 11-4 (73%) and roughly 57% over the past decade. Primetime unders are 21-16 (57%) this season, including 19-8 (70%) since the start of November. At BetMGM, the under is getting 55% of bets but 85% of money, indicating wiseguy support. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically. He also favors road teams (56% ATS).
Buffalo is currently a -130 favorite to win the AFC East at BetMGM. The Patriots are 110.
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Post by Makers on Dec 7, 2021 10:00:52 GMT -5
Early action for NFL Week 14...
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Both of these AFC North rivals are looking to rebound from losses. They're also playing each other for the second time in three weeks. The Ravens (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) just fell to the Steelers 20-19, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) lost to the Ravens 10-16, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Browns, steaming Cleveland up from -1.5 to -2.5. Cleveland has a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while Baltimore played on Sunday. Favorites off a bye are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Baltimore is riddled with injuries and just lost star CB Marlon Humpphrey for the season. Wiseguys have also hit this under, dropping the total from 43 to 42.5. The forecast calls for low 40s with 15 MPH winds, which qualifies as a "Windy Under" system match. Late season divisional unders are 12-4 (75%) since Week 11.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
This big NFC East showdown features the two best teams in the division facing off. The first-place Cowboys (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) just beat the Saints 27-17, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, red-hot Washington (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won four straight, including a 17-15 win over the Raiders last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 5-point road favorite. We've seen this line fall from 5 to 4, signaling some sharp money grabbing the points with the Football Team. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 63-33 ATS (66%). The total has ticked down slightly from 49 to 48.5. The forecast calls for rain and 10-15 MPH winds. December divisional totals 45 or higher have gone under at a 56% clip the past decade.
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This non-conference showdown was once a trendy Super Bowl pick earlier in the season. The Bills (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) are just 3-4 over their last seven games and just lost to the Patriots 14-10 as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Bucs (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Falcons 30-17, covering as 11-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3 at most shops, indicating some respected money leaning Bills plus the hook. Road dogs off a loss are 33-22 ATS (60%) this season. Road dogs 3 or less are 20-10 ATS (67%). Josh Allen is 15-8 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career. The total has dipped slightly from 53 to 52.5. Non-conference unders are 41-21 (66%) this season.
More Week 13 Early Moves
Steelers 4 to 3 at Vikings
Raiders-Chiefs Under 50.5 to 48.5
Jets 6.5 to 5.5 vs Saints
Jags 10 to 9.5 at Titans
Seahawks-Texans Under 43.5 to 42
Cardinals -2.5 to -3 vs Rams
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Post by Makers on Dec 9, 2021 8:23:56 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings
Both of these non-conference foes are "in the hunt" when it comes to the playoffs, which makes this a must-win game for both sides. The Steelers (6-5-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) just upset the Ravens 20-19, winning outright as a 4-point home dog. Meanwhile, the Vikings (5-7 SU, 6-6- ATS) have dropped two straight and just fell to the lowly Lions 29-27, losing outright as 7-point road favorites.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Some shops opened a bit higher at Vikings -4. The public is split and doesn't know who to take, yet we've seen this line fall down to 3. This signals respected money grabbing the points with the road dog, specifically at Steelers plus the hook ( 3.5). Pittsburgh matches several betting systems. Road dogs are 67-43 ATS (61%) this season. Road dogs 7 or less are 56-23 ATS (71%). Primetime dogs are 24-15 ATS (62%). Mike Tomlin is 5-2 ATS as a dog this season and 43-21 ATS (67%) as a dog in his career. Minnesota will be missing both RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen due to injury.
Kirk Cousins is 15-22 ATS (41%) as a home favorite. Big Ben is 37-22 ATS (63%) as a dog.
We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 44.5 to 43.5. Unders are 111-82 (58%) this season. Non-conference unders are 41-21 (66%). If the total is 45 or less, the under is 40-26 (61%). If the total falls at least one point, the under is 52-35 (60%). Primetime unders are 22-16 (58%) this season but a sparkling 20-8 (71%) since November.
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