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Post by Makers on Sept 22, 2020 5:59:51 GMT -5
The Raiders christened their new Las Vegas home in style last night, upsetting the Saints 34-24 on Monday Night Football. It was a huge win for sharps and contrarians as only about one-third of spread bets took Vegas and the points. The Raiders opened at + 5.5, rose to + 6.5 and closed at + 4. Vegas always had value as a home contrarian dog but it was the late move on game day that really solidified their status as a sharp play. Late Monday afternoon and into the evening, we saw the Raiders plummet from + 5.5 to + 4. Some books even closed at + 3.5. Bettors should always pay attention to late moves like this because they happen when limits are raised and the biggest sharp bets come in. When bettors saw the drop to + 4, they knew wiseguys were all over Vegas. Pros were also on the MNF under, but to no avail. It opened at 51.5, closed at 47.5 and landed on 58, handing public over bettors an easy cash. Overs have become a huge storyline through two NFL weeks. They are now 20-12 (62.5%) overall. Today we have a relatively quiet slate on tap with 1 NBA game and 16 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (36-19) at New York Mets (24-30)
The Rays upset Jacob deGrom and the Mets 2-1 last night, winning as big + 170 road underdogs. Tonight, Tampa starts ace Blake Snell (4-1, 3.05 ERA) while the Mets counter with Seth Lugo (2-3, 4.34 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as short -120 road favorites and the Mets a + 110 home dog. We've seen sharps rush to the window to grab the Rays, pushing Tampa up from -120 to -130. The Mets are 18-16 against righties this season but just 6-14 against lefties. Tampa is also a favorite with a low total (7.5). Historically, low totals benefit favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. 8:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (26-25) at Kansas City Royals (22-32)
The Royals stole last night's series opener against the Cardinals 4-1, cashing as hefty + 170 home underdogs. In tonight's Game 2, St. Louis starts lefty Austin Gomber (0-1, 2.37 ERA) while Kansas City counters with righty Brady Singer (3-4, 4.14 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as short -120 road favorites and the Royals a + 110 home dog. We've seen smart money pour in on the Royals, dropping the Cards from -120 to -110 and KC from + 110 to + 100. Essentially, smart money on the Royals is moving this game toward a pick'em. 9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets
This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers lead the series 2-0 and are coming off a thrilling 105-103 win thanks to an Anthony Davis buzzer-beating three pointer. Despite the heartbreaking loss, Denver managed to cover as 7.5-point underdogs. This Game 3 line opened with the Lakers listed as 6.5-point favorites, the shortest spread of the series thus far. The public is once again backing Los Angeles. However, despite receiving two-thirds of spread bets, the Lakers haven't moved off of 6.5. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Nuggets with books refusing to hand out a better number to Denver backers. The total is 214. The public is hammering the over but it also hasn't moved, signaling some liability on the under. Playoff unders are cashing at roughly a 60% clip in the bubble.
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Post by Makers on Sept 23, 2020 5:28:48 GMT -5
Here are the updated NBA Title Odds at BetMGM:
Lakers -250 Heat + 500 Celtics + 650 Nuggets + 1400 And here are the exact Finals prices:
Heat-Lakers -125 Celtics-Lakers + 125 Heat-Nuggets + 2200 Celtics-Nuggets + 3000 Today we have a loaded slate on tap with 1 NBA game, 1 NHL game and 15 MLB games. Let's discuss a pair of big matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 8 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars
This is Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals. After dropping the opener 4-1, the Lightning rebounded in Game 2, posting a 3-2 win to even the series at one game apiece. This Game 3 line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a hefty -150 favorite and the Stars a + 130 underdog. We've seen a steady dose of Lightning money hit the market, pushing Tampa up from -150 to -155. Some books are closer to -160. The Stars, however, have value as a big plus money dog and an experienced team off of a loss. Historically, teams who made the playoffs the previous season tend to rebound off a loss in their game. The Stars are 4-1 after a loss this postseason. Dallas is also the designated home team in this one, which means they get the benefit of having the last line change. With the series tied 1-1, the Lightning are now -200 favorites (66.7%) to win the Cup at BetMGM. The Stars are + 170. 8:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat
This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After falling behind in the series 0-2, the Celtics roared back in Game 3, winning 117-106 and covering as 3.5-point favorites. This Game 4 line opened with Boston listed as a short 2.5-point favorites. The public is all over the Celtics with two-thirds of bets rushing to lay the points. This also included some early smart money on Boston -2.5. This lopsided action has pushed Boston to -3. We've seen some buyback on the Heat + 3, which has caused this line to stick and not move further toward the Celtics. Miami has value as a contrarian dog with a semi-inflated line. The total opened at 210.5 and has either stayed the same or ticked down slightly to 210 depending on the book. This signals some under liability. One big factor to consider here is the rest situation. Both teams are coming off 4-day layoffs. Presumably, this would benefit Boston as Gordon Hayward will receive more time to acclimate. However, it could also blunt Boston's momentum off of its big Game 2 win.
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Post by Makers on Sept 24, 2020 6:15:14 GMT -5
The Heat upset the Celtics 112-109 on Wednesday night to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat (+ 3.5) came up huge for dog bettors and cashed + 145 on the moneyline. Boston opened as a 2.5-point favorite and got hit with a barrage of action, moving up to -3.5. Miami had value as a contrarian dog with an inflated line in a heavily bet game. Pros also cashed the over. It opened at 210, got steamed up to 212 and landed on 221. The over was an intriguing play for sharps because all three refs historically favored the over and the extra layoff between games led to fresh and rested offensive legs. With a 3-1 series lead, the Heat are now -455 favorites to advance to the NBA Finals at BetMGM. This translated to an 82% implied probability. The Celtics are + 350 to come back and win the series.
Here are the updated NBA Title odds
Lakers -250 Heat + 325 Celtics + 1400 Nuggets + 1400 Here are the most likely NBA Finals series matchups
Heat-Lakers -304 Celtics-Lakers + 370 Heat-Nuggets + 1200 Celtics-Nuggets + 4000
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Post by Makers on Sept 24, 2020 6:17:17 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
This Thursday Night showdown features a pair of Florida teams looking to rebound from tough losses last week. The Dolphins (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) fell to the Bills 31-28 at home but were able to cover as 5.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, the Jags (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) battled hard in a 33-30 loss to the Titans but covered as 7-point dogs. This line opened with Jacksonville listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We've seen a steady dose of action from both Pros and Joes backing the Jags, pushing the line up from Jags -2.5 to the key number of -3. Pros really targeted the Jags at -2.5, that way a 3-point win would cover. Historically, Thursday Night games have provided an edge to home favorites as the short week benefits the "better" team who didn't have to travel. We've also seen big money hammer this over. The total opened at 45 and has been bet up to 48. The over is 1-1 in Dolphins games this season and 2-0 in Jags games. Overs are 20-12 (62%) across the NFL this season. 9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets
This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets are riding the momentum of a huge 114-106 win in Game 3 as 6.5-point dogs, which cut the Lakers series lead to 2-1. This Game 4 line opened with the Lakers listed as 6-point favorites. This is notable because it's the lowest spread of the series (previous games were Lakers -7, -7.5 and -6.5). This means oddsmakers are respecting the Nuggets more. Anytime this line has jumped to Lakers -6.5, we've seen sharp action hit the Nuggets at + 6.5, dropping it down to 6. Keep an eye on this line as we get closer to game-time. If you see it fall to 5.5 that will be a sign that pros are liking the Nuggets even more. The total opened at 215. The public is hammering the over, yet we've seen the total stay the same or fall slightly to 214.5. This signals some under liability.
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Post by Makers on Sept 25, 2020 5:53:34 GMT -5
The Dolphins came up huge for sportsbooks and dog bettors on Thursday Night Football, upsetting the Jaguars 31-13. Miami cashed as a + 2.5 dog on the spread and + 125 on the moneyline. The Jaguars opened -2.5 and received a lion's share of the bets, pushing Jacksonville to the key number of -3. In the final hour or so before kickoff, we saw the line drop from 3 to 2.5. This was a signal that pros had scooped up the Dolphins at + 3, causing the line to fall. The under cashed for contrarians as well. Two-thirds of bets steamed the over, causing it to rise from 45 to 49. It landed on 44.
In the NBA playoffs, the Lakers earned a 114-108 victory over the Nuggets to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. In a perfect example of how spot-on oddsmakers are, the line opened at Los Angeles -6 and closed at -6, which resulted in a push. However, some shops briefly reached 6.5. This means savvy bettors who jumped on the Nuggets when they were + 6.5 were able to cash with the hook.
The total opened at 215 and got hit with some smart under money, dropping it to 214. However, public bettors got the last night and the total sailed over and landed on 222. Over are now 6-2 in the Conference Finals. Unders still lead in the playoffs overall at 43-30-1.
Today, we have a loaded Friday slate with 1 NBA game, 1 NHL game, 1 College Football game and whipping 18 MLB games. Consider it the calm before the weekend storm. Let's discuss two Friday matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
8 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars
This is Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Lightning posted a dominant 5-2 victory as -165 favorites in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. This Game 4 line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -160 favorite and Dallas a + 140 dog. We've seen value driven sharps buy low on the Stars off a bad loss with an inflated line, dropping the Bolts from -160 to -115 and the Stars from + 140 to + 135. Dallas is the designated home team and will have the advantage of getting the last change. The total is 5 with the over juiced at -130, signaling over liability. Leading 2-1, the Lightning are now -556 favorites (85%) to win the Cup. The Stars are + 440.
8:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat lead the series 3-1. It's do-or-die time for the Celtics, who will see their season end if they lose tonight. This line opened with Boston listed as a 3-point favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn't know which way to go. They love the idea of getting points with the red-hot Heat but also respect a desperate Celtics team with their backs to the wall. Despite an even ticket count, we've seen some back move from Boston -3 to -3.5, signaling some respected money laying the points. We've also seen sharp action hit the under, dropping the total from 214 to 213. The Over is 3-1 in this series. With Miami up 3-1 in the series, the Heat are now -455 favorites (82%) to reach the NBA Finals. Boston is + 350 to come back and win the series.
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Post by Makers on Sept 26, 2020 7:09:10 GMT -5
Last night the Celtics (-3.5) overcame a slow start and then caught fire, hammering the Heat 121-108 to stay alive and force a Game 6 in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston opened as a 3-point favorite and moved to -3.5 despite spread bets being split right down the middle. This subtle move was a sign that pro money was leaning Boston because, in a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. Entering last night, Miami was a -445 favorite to win the series at BetMGM and Boston + 350. Following last night's win, Boston is now a + 150 underdog to win the series. Miami is -182. Last night's over cashed easily. It never really moved from the opener of 213.5. It was a big win for the public as nearly two-thirds of bets took the over. Overs have been the story of the Conference Finals. They are now 7-2 overall. Now we turn our attention to a loaded Saturday. We have roughly 30 college football games to choose from, plus 1 NBA game, 1 NHL game and 16 MLB games. 7:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee at South Carolina
This SEC showdown is the most heavily bet game of the day. Tennessee opened as a 3-point road favorite. The Volunteers are ranked 16th and South Carolina is unranked. That's all the public needs to know. Nearly three-out-of-four bets are laying the points with the Vols, which has pushed this line up from Tennessee -3 to -3.5 or even -4 at some shops. This has created a perfect storm for value-driven bettors to buy low on South Carolina. The Gamecocks are your top contrarian play of the day, getting only a quarter of bets in a nationally televised, primetime game. South Carolina also has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent and enjoys an inflated line, ideally at + 4. If you like to bet against the public and place yourself on the side of the house, the Cocks are the play in this one. 7:30 p.m. ET: Florida State at Miami Florida
This matchup features two Florida powerhouses coming off very different season openers. Florida State (0-1) lost to Georgia Tech at home 16-13. On the flip side, Miami (2-0, ranked 12th) is coming off a huge 47-34 win over Louisville in primetime last Saturday. This line opened with Miami listed as an 11-point home favorite. The recency-biased public is all over the Hurricanes as a ranked favorite off a big win at home. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with Miami, this line has remained frozen at -11. Why hasn't it gone to -12 or -13? Anytime it reaches -11.5, it gets hit with FSU + 11.5 money. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on the Noles, who also have value as a contrarian unranked dog in a primetime game. Sharps might be looking to bet against Miami in a possible let down spot after a huge win. Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles LakersThis is Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers hold a 3-1 series lead and are coming off a 114-108 win in Game 4, pushing as 6-point favorites. The Nuggets are on the brink of elimination and must win in order to keep their season alive. We've seen Denver overcome a pair of 3-1 deficits thus far in the playoffs, upsetting the Jazz and Clippers. This Game 5 line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point favorite. Sharps have rushed to the window to grab Denver and the points. This overload of Nuggets money has dropped the line from Lakers -6 to -5. If you think the Nuggets can win, Denver is + 175 on the moneyline. We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 214.5 to 213.5. The over is 3-1 in this series. The Lakers are massive -3334 favorites (97%) to reach the NBA Finals at BetMGM. Denver is + 1400 to stage another 3-1 comeback.
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Post by Makers on Sept 27, 2020 5:50:08 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
These two teams are trending in opposite directions. The winless Texans (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) have been outscored 67-36 in two games and just fell to the Ravens 33-16 at home, failing to cover as 7.5-point dogs. On the flip side, the undefeated Steelers (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-21 win over the Broncos but didn't get the cover as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 5-point home favorite. Some books opened closed to -6. The public is rushing to lay the points with the Steelers, but we've seen sharp money load up on Houston, causing a dramatic reverse line move toward the road dog. The Texans reached + 3.5 and have since leveled off at + 4. Historically, it has been profitable to buy low on undervalued teams in Week 3 who failed to cover their first two games.
1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
Both of these teams are off to slow starts and things have gotten worse due to a barrage of big injuries. The 49ers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) rebounded from a Week 1 loss to the Cardinals with a resounding 31-13 win over the Jets as 7-point favorites. The Giants (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) are winless but battled back in Week 2, falling to the Bears 17-13 but covering as 4.5-point dogs. This line originally opened with the 49ers listed as 6.5-point road favorites. With Bosa, Garoppolo and Kittle all out, this line has dipped to 49ers -3.5. Some books are even down to 3. The Giants have value as a contrarian home dog with a line move in their favor. The total dipped from 42 to 40 since opening. Nick Mullins will start at quarterback for the 49ers.
1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
The Bengals (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) have lost a pair of close games, most recently falling to the Browns 35-30 but covering as 6-point dogs. Meanwhile, the Eagles (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) have been dreadful through two games, blowing a big lead to Washington in the opener and then getting crushed by the Rams 37-19 last week in a game they were favored by 1.5-points. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 6-point home favorite. Spread bets are slightly favoring the Eagles here, yet we've seen this line fall from Philly -6 to -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Bengals. One advantage for the Bengals here is the fact they last played on Thursday while the Eagles played Sunday.
More Week 3 line moves
Titans -1.5 to -2.5 at Vikings
Rams + 3 to + 2 at Bills
Colts -9 to -11.5 vs Jets
Panthers + 7 to + 6.5 at Chargers
Lions + 6.5 to + 5.5 at Cardinals
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Post by Makers on Sept 28, 2020 5:37:15 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Bettors couldn't have asked for a better Monday Night Football matchup. These Super Bowl favorites are both undefeated and look primed for a championship season. The Chiefs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a tough 23-20 win over the Chargers, although they failed to cover as 9-point favorites. On the flip side, the Ravens (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) have looked unstoppable through two games, crushing the Browns 38-6 and then dominated the Texans 33-16 last week. This game opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public can't believe they're getting Patrick Mahomes as a dog. However, despite two-thirds of bets grabbing the Chiefs and the points, we've seen this line move further to the Ravens -3 to -3.5. This signals pro money backing Baltimore at home and causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Essentially, Balimore is in a super sharp spot as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet game. Pros are fading the trendy dog. We could be looking at a high scoring game as the total opened at 52 and has been bet up to 54. Surprisingly, the over is 1-1 in Chiefs games and 0-2 in Ravens games thus far.
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Post by Makers on Sept 29, 2020 5:53:50 GMT -5
Joes got the best of Pros on Monday Night Football as the Chiefs upset the Ravens 34-20. The Ravens were a wiseguy play. Baltimore opened at -2.5 or -3 and moved to -3.5 despite receiving only about one-third of spread bets. However, it was all for naught as Patrick Mahomes rewarded public bettors who took Kansas City plus the points. The Chiefs cashed + 155 on the moneyline. Today, the MLB postseason begins. Here are the latest World Series odds from BetMGM for the 16-team field Dodgers + 375 Yankees + 600 Rays + 800 Twins, A's, Padres + 1000 Braves, White Sox + 1200 Cubs + 1400 Indians + 1600 Astros + 2500 Reds + 3500 Marlins, Brewers, Cardinals, Jays + 4000 In the meantime, let's discuss a pair of MLB playoff games receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 2 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
The Astros (29-31) finished with a sub .500 record and snuck into the playoffs as the 8th and final seed in the American League. Meanwhile, the Twins (36-24) won the AL Central and finished tied for the 2rd-best record in the AL alongside the Athletics, trailing only the Rays. Houston will start Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) on the hill and Minnesota counters with Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a -145 home favorite and the Astros a + 130 underdog. We've seen sharps get down hard on the home favorite, pushing the Twins from -145 to -165. The Astros are 3-13 as a dog this season and 9-21 on the road. The Twins are 29-18 as a favorite and 23-7 at home. We've also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The Twins are -164 favorites (62.1%) to win this series at BetMGM. The Astros are a + 135 dog. 3 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
The White Sox (35-25) and Athletics (36-24) finished with nearly identical records in the regular season. In today's Game 1, Chicago sends ace Lucas Giolito (4-3, 3.48 ERA) to the mound to face young Oakland southpaw Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as short -128 road favorites and the Athletics a + 118 home dog. The public is happy to back the White Sox at a short price. But we've seen pro money hit the Athletics, dropping Oakland from + 118 to + 108. The White Sox went 26-9 as a favorite this season, 17-13 on the road and 14-0 against lefties. The A's are 3-6 as a dog this season and 21-9 at home. Oakland also has value as a short playoff home dog, a profitable spot historically. There looks to be liability on this under. The total is 7.5 and juiced up to the under -120. The Athletics are short -120 series favorites. The White Sox are + 100. Other MLB Series Prices at BetMGM
Jays + 165 vs Rays -200 Yankees -139 vs Indians + 115 Reds + 115 vs Braves -139 Marlins + 150 vs Cubs -182 Cardinals + 175 vs Padres -218 Brewers + 240 vs Dodgers -304
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Post by Makers on Oct 1, 2020 6:50:11 GMT -5
The Lakers dominated Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night, crushing the Heat 116-98. Los Angeles easily covered as a 4.5-point favorite and cashed -185 on the moneyline. Spread bets were actually split down the middle in this game and we saw a sharp move toward Miami (+ 5 to + 4.5). But it was all for naught as the Lakers rolled to take a 1-0 series lead. Sharps were able to cash the under. The total opened at 218 and two-thirds of bets were backing the over, yet we saw it fall to 217.5. This was a classic example of sharp reverse line movement. The total landed on 214. Unders are now 44-33-1 in the NBA playoffs. The Lakers opened as -358 favorites to win the series at BetMGM. After winning Game 1, Los Angeles is now -1000. The Heat have moved from + 300 to + 700. Two injuries to monitor moving forward: both Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo left last night's series opener with shoulder and foot injuries and are questionable moving forward. The Lakers have opened as 7-point favorites for Game 2 on Friday. The total is 216. In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is flowing for Thursday Night Football. 8:20 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at New York Jets
This TNF showdown features two winless teams off to a nightmarish start. The Broncos (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-10 loss at home to the Bucs, failing to cover as 6-point underdogs. Meanwhile, the Jets (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) have progressively gotten worse each game this season, most recently falling to the Colts 36-7 as 11.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Denver listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. The public sees the Jets as an auto-fade and roughly two-thirds of bets are backing Denver. This lopsided support pushed the Broncos to -3. That's when we saw pros get down on the Jets at the key number of + 3. Then it was announced the Broncos would start Brett Rypien at quarterback. This caused a further flood of money toward New York, moving the Jets all the way to a 1.5-point favorite. The Jets are the clear sharp play here. The last smart money to hit New York was when they were at a pick'em. New York is a contrarian dog to favorite in a heavily bet game. New York is also a home team on a short week, which has been a profitable bet historically on Thursday nights. Jerome Boger is the head official tonight. Historically, favorites have covered at a 55% clip when he is the lead umpire. We've also seen a rare contrarian reverse line move on the over. A majority of bets are on the under, yet this total has risen slightly from 40 to 41. This signals pro money backing the over. Boger also provides an edge to overs (59%). It's expected to be perfect weather at MetLife: mid 60s, partly cloudy with little to no wind. NFL Overs are cashing at a 60% clip so far this season (29-19).
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Post by Makers on Oct 2, 2020 5:37:02 GMT -5
The Broncos defeated the Jets 37-28 on Thursday Night Football, handing public bettors a win over the sharps. Denver opened as a 2.5-point favorite and got bet up to -3. But then we saw a flood of smart money hammer the Jets, flipping the line all the way to New York -1 or -1.5. Essentially, smart money had pushed the Jets from a dog to a favorite. But it was all for naught as the Broncos escaped with a win and cover.
However, pros did cash the over. The total opened at 40 and rose to 41 despite a slight majority of bets taking the under. This was an example of a rare contrarian over with reverse line movement. Pros were rewarded as the total sailed over and landed on 65. Overs are now 30-19 (61.2%) on the season.
Today we have quality, not quantity Friday slate with 1 NBA game, 1 WNBA game, 1 college football game and 1 MLB game. Consider it the calm before the weekend storm. Let's discuss two Friday matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
7 p.m. ET: Seattle Storm vs Las Vegas Aces
This is Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. Both teams finished with an 18-4 record-season record. The Aces won both of the regular-season matchups, beating the Storm 82-74 and 86-84. However, the Storm are listed as a -350 favorite (78% implied probability) to win the series, with the Aces a + 280 underdog. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4-point favorite. We've seen smart money back the favorite, pushing the line up to -5. Remember, WNBA is not a public sport. So anytime you see a line move there's a good chance it's sharp-driven. We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total slightly from 164.5 to 164.
9 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers
This is Game 2 of the NBA Finals. The Lakers lead the series 1-0 after blowing out the Heat 116-98, easily covering as 4.5-point favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point favorite. Two-thirds of bets, including heavy steam from sharp bettors, has pushed the Lakers up from -7 to -9.5. A big reason for the line move has been a pair of key injuries to Miami. Both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic are listed as doubtful and expected to miss this game. We've also seen smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 218 to 216.5. Historically, the under has been a smart bet in the NBA playoffs due to the elevated intensity and increased defensive emphasis. The under 217.5 cashed in Game 1 and now two key offensive players will be out for the Heat tonight. The Lakers opened as a -358 favorite to win the series at BetMGM. They are now a -1250 favorite. The Heat have moved from + 300 to + 800.
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Post by Makers on Oct 3, 2020 5:41:58 GMT -5
Noon ET: Baylor at West Virginia
Baylor (1-0) enters this Big 12 clash coming off a resounding 47-14 win over Kansas in which the Bears easily covered as 17-point favorites. Meanwhile, West Virginia (1-1) is coming off a 27-13 loss to Oklahoma State, failing to cover as 5.5-point dogs. This line opened with Baylor listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. T he public is all over the undefeated Bears, which briefly pushed the line to Baylor -3. However, despite roughly three-out-of-four bets laying the points with Baylor, we've actually seen this line fall to -2 or even -1.5 across the market. This signals sharp reverse line movement on home dog West Virginia (ideally at + 3). WVU also has value as a contrarian conference home dog on a short spread. Noon ET: Missouri at Tennessee
This SEC showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. Missouri (0-1) fell to Alabama 38-19 last week, although they covered as 28.5-point dogs. Tennessee (1-0) earned a hard fought road win over South Carolina 31-27, pushing as 4-point favorites. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen this line rise to Volunteers -12.5. Anytime bets are split but you see a line move, there's a good chance it was the result of smart money. In this case, pros laid the points with the Vols. Noon ET: South Carolina at FloridaSouth Carolina (0-1) fell to Tennessee 31-27 last week, pushing as 4-point dogs. On the flip side, Florida (1-0) took down Ole Miss 51-35, covering as 14-point favorites. This line opened with the Gators listed as 18.5-point home favorites. Despite the big spread, public bettors are fine with laying the points because the Gators are ranked 3rd overall while South Carolina is unranked. However, value-minded pros seem to think this number is a bit high. Pros have hit the Gamecocks, dropping this line from Florida -18.5 to -16.5. South Carolina has value as an unranked contrarian conference dog with a line move in their favor. 3:30 p.m. ET: Memphis at SMU
Bettors are in for a treat with this clash of these undefeated American Conference teams. Memphis (1-0) is coming off a 37-24 win over Arkansas State. However, the program has been paused since that game on September 5 due to COVID-19 cases. This means Memphis is off a big layoff. On the flip side, SMU (3-0) is riding high, beating their three opponents this season by a combined margin of 146-66. This line opened with Memphis listed as a 3-point road favorite. Smart money has poured in on home dog SMU, pushing this line all the way down to a pick'em.
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Post by Makers on Oct 4, 2020 4:47:16 GMT -5
Sportsbooks rooting for Raiders with money pouring in on BillsFor the second consecutive week, Las Vegas sportsbooks will clearly need the Raiders to cover the spread Sunday. Seventy percent of the tickets and 84 percent of the money is on the Buffalo Bills at William Hill, and the Westgate, Circa Sports and Station Casinos also expect to be Las Vegas fans in its second home game at Allegiant Stadium. “We’re going to need the Raiders. They were one of our biggest early decisions last week against the Patriots, and it’s trending the same way this week,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “When you compare them to the Knights, there was not a night we weren’t rooting against the Knights. But we’re clearly Raiders fans from a fan perspective and from our side of the counter as well.” The Bills opened as 2½-point favorites on the look-ahead line at the Westgate. But the number climbed to 3½ at multiple books Friday after reports that the Raiders were expected to be missing several injured players, including receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards and cornerback Damon Arnette. “The line move we’re seeing right now is injury-based,” Westgate sportsbook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “They don’t have a receiving corps, and the Raiders’ defense is still somewhat struggling. “Right now, the ticket count is almost 3-1 in favor of the Bills. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we get some Raiders support Saturday night and game day.” Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said his book took a bet from a sharp customer on the Bills -3 (-110). Sharp bettors have wagered over and under the total, which is a consensus 52½ after opening at 49½. “Sharp money came in early on the total over 49½, 50 and 51,” Kornegay said. “But that doesn’t mean they won’t come back and bet the other way on game day.”
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Post by Makers on Oct 4, 2020 5:27:13 GMT -5
Through three weeks, it's been an over bonanza in the NFL. Overs have gone 30-19 (61%) this season, delighting the public and crushing sportsbooks. Do we see overs continue to crush again today? NFL scoring is up 5.4 points compared to last season and referees are calling fewer penalties (about 1.5 fewer per game). Or do see regression to the mean where unders bounce back today? Oddsmakers may have shaded lines to the over, which creates good value to buy-low on contrarian inflated unders. 1 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) were undefeated and looked unstoppable through two weeks. But then Arizona came back down to Earth in Week 3, falling to the Lions 26-23 at home as 5-point favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) started off with a pair of losses but rebounded in a big way in Week 3, upsetting the Chargers 21-16 as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a short 4-point road favorite. The public is pounding Kyler Murray and the Cards. However, despite more than two-thirds of bets backing Arizona, we've seen this line fall from -4 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros getting down on Carolina plus the points (ideally at 4 or 3.5). 1 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins
The high-scoring Seahawks (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) have been the most profitable team to bet on this season, winning and covering the spread in all three of their games thus far. Seattle just took down the Cowboys 38-31 at 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from an 0-2 start to post a resounding 31-13 win over the Jags last Thursday night, winning outright as a 2.5-point road dog. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public sees Russell Wilson as an auto-bet and is rushing to the window to lay the points with Seattle. However, we've seen this fall from Seahawks -7 to -5.5. This is due to smart money buying low on the Dolphins at home in a super-contrarian spot. Miami has a rest advantage (last played Thursday vs Seahawks last playing on Sunday). Seattle is also a West Coast team traveling East for an early 1 p.m. ET game, a tough spot to be in historically. The Seahawks will also be without star safety Jamal Adams, who is out with a groin injury. 1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This non-conference showdown features two teams coming off opposite weeks. The Chargers (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) fell to the Panthers 21-16, losing straight up as 6-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) are riding a two-game winning streak, most recently crushing the Broncos 28-10, easily covering as 6-point favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is all over Tom Brady and the surging Bucs, however we've seen the line either stay at 7 or fall slightly to 6.5 at some shops. This sharp line freeze and reverse line movement signals liability on Los Angeles. The Chargers also offer value as a contrarian road dog in a game with a low total. We've also seen some sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 42.5. The forecast calls for possibly rain and 10 MPH winds. The Under is 3-0 in Chargers games and the Over is 2-1 in Bucs games. Tampa Bay will miss offensive weapons Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette due to injury. 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys
After a blowout loss to the Ravens in the season opener, the Browns (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) have rebounded with a pair of wins over the Bengals (35-30) and most recently defeated Washington 34-20 as 7-point favorites last week. It's been a struggle thus far for the Cowboys (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), who could very well be winless if not for the epic comeback against the Falcons (40-39) in Week 2. Dallas just lost to the Seahawks last week 38-31, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Cowboys listed as 5-point home favorites. The public still believes in Dallas and doesn't think the Browns are for real. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with the home favorite, we've seen smart money hit Cleveland, dropping the line from 5 to 3.5. All liability has been on Cleveland plus the points.
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Post by Makers on Oct 5, 2020 8:12:00 GMT -5
7:05 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
This game was supposed to be played yesterday but was rescheduled for tonight after Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19. The Patriots (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a tough Week 2 loss against Seattle with a resounding 36-20 win over the Raiders last week, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Now they travel to Arrowhead to take on an undefeated Chiefs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) team who just waltzed into Baltimore on Monday Night and waxed the Ravens 34-20 as 3.5-point dogs. This line originally opened with Kansas City listed as a 7-point home favorite. However, once Newton was ruled out and the Patriots announced they would start Brian Hoyer at quarterback, the line re-opened at Chiefs -11.5. Two-thirds of bets are laying the points with Kansas City, yet we've seen some books drop the line to -10.5. T his signals some wiseguy money buying low on Belichick and the Pats as a rare big road dog. 8:50 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
The Falcons (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) are winless and have choked away big leads two straight weeks, most recently losing to the Bears 30-26 as 2.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers are undefeated and just took down the Saints 37-30 as 3-point dogs on Sunday Night Football. This line opened with Green Bay listed as anywhere from a 5-point or 6-point home favorite. Early money immediately laid the points with the Packers. The public is also on Green Bay, which has pushed the line up to -7 or even -7.5 at some shops. But then we saw smart money buy-low on the Falcons at + 7.5 and + 7, which has dropped the line down to 6.5. The Falcons are tough to back due to their continued collapses, but Atlanta has value as a contrarian road dog in a heavily bet game with a sharp late line move. This total opened at a super high 58.5 and has been bet down to 56.5. Both teams are 3-0 to the over so far this season.
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