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Post by Makers on Dec 10, 2021 6:37:08 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Nashville Predators at New Jersey DevilsThe Predators (15-10-1) are riding a three-game winning streak and just beat the Islanders 4-3 last night as 105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Devils (10-9-5) just blanked the Flyers 3-0, cashing as -150 home favorites. This line opened with Nashville listed as a -130 road favorite and New Jersey a 110 home dog. We're seeing some books adjust the Predators down from -130 to -125, signaling some respected money grabbing the home dog Devils ( 110 to 105). This is a "Rest vs Tired" advantage for the Devils, who were off yesterday while the Predators are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back has gone 66-49 (57%) this season. 9 p.m. ET: Detroit Red Wings at Colorado AvalancheThe Red Wings (13-11-3) have dropped two straight, including a 6-2 loss to the Blues last night as 135 road dogs. On the flip side, the Avalanche (14-7-2) have won two straight and just iced the Rangers 7-3, cashing as -175 road favorites. This line opened with Colorado listed as a hefty -310 home favorite and Detroit a 250 road dog. We've seen Colorado quickly shoot up to -320, signaling big money willing to lay the big price. Home favorites off a win playing teams off a loss are 60-19 (76%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more off a win are 32-7 (82%). Detroit is on the second leg of a back-to-back while Colorado is rested. This rested vs tired spot has gone 39-18 (70%). The Avalanche are also a "puck-line" option at -1.5 (-130). Colorado is 13-7 as a favorite and 7-2-1 at home. Detroit is 7-12 as a dog and 4-8-1 on the road. 9 p.m. ET: Florida Panthers at Arizona CoyotesThe Panthers (17-4-4) have the 2nd-best record in the NHL but are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Blues, losing outright as -165 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Coyotes (5-18-2) have the worst record in the NHL and have lost three straight, most recently losing to the Stars 4-1 as 270 road dogs. This line opened with Florida listed as a -270 road favorite and Arizona a 220 home dog . Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the chalk with Florida, steaming the Panthers up to -300. Big favorites -200 or more are 63-19 (77%) this season. Non-division road favorites are 65-43 (60%). Florida is 16-5 as a favorite. Arizona is 5-20 as a dog. The Panthers are -1.5 (-120) on the puck-line.
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Post by Makers on Dec 11, 2021 9:59:20 GMT -5
3 p.m. ET: Army vs Navy
This is the 122nd matchup in the storied rivalry between Army and Navy. It will be played at MetLife Stadium, home of the Jets and Giants. The game will be played in honor of the 20th anniversary of 9/11. Army (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won four straight games, most recently beating Liberty 31-16 as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Navy (3-8 SU, 7-4 ATS) started the season 1-6 but has gone a respectable 2-2 over their past four games. Navy is coming off a 38-14 win over Temple, easily covering as 13.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Army listed as an 8.5-point neutral site favorite. We've seen respected money grab Navy and the points, dropping the line from 8.5 to 7. Army has outscored their opponents by an average margin of 36-23. Meanwhile, Navy has been outscored on average 30-20. Army is 4-1 against Navy over the past five games. Army won last year's matchup 15-0, which was played at West Point. Army will be heading to a Bowl Game after this. Meanwhile, this is Navy's last game of the season.
The most intriguing part of this game from a betting perspective is the total. It opened at 36.5 and has been bet down to 35. It even touched 34 until some over buyback brought it back to 35. The under is an unbelievable 15-0 over the last 15 matchups. In fact, Military Academy matchups are notorious for going under. Since 2005, the under is 40-9 (82%) when two Military Academies face off. Why the under edge? Because Army, Navy and Air Force play a run-heavy triple option offense. Because they run the ball the vast majority of the time, they chew up the clock, which leads to long, methodical drives, fewer possessions and less scoring.
The forecast calls for low 50s with 10 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 52-27 (66%) this season. Both teams are 6-5 to the under.
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Post by Makers on Dec 12, 2021 7:47:54 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
The Ravens (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) just fell to the Steelers 20-19, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a bye and just lost to the Ravens 10-16, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Browns, steaming Cleveland up from -1.5 to -3. Favorites off a bye, like Cleveland, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. According to BetMGM, the Browns are only receiving 35% of bets but 60% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" betting split. The total has fallen from 43 to 42.5.The forecast calls for low 40s with 15 MPH winds, which qualifies as a "Windy Under" system match. Late season divisional unders are 12-4 (75%) since Week 11.
1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
The first-place Cowboys (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) just beat the Saints 27-17, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, red-hot Washington (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won four straight, including a 17-15 win over the Raiders last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 5-point road favorite. We've seen this line fall from 5 to 4, signaling some sharp money grabbing the points with the Football Team. There was some buyback on Dallas, pushing WFT back to 4.5. Still, the line has leaned Washington from start to current. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 63-33 ATS (66%). The total has ticked down slightly from 49 to 48. The forecast calls for rain and 10-15 MPH winds. December divisional totals 45 or higher have gone under at a 56% clip the past decade. Washington is also in a prime teaser spot ( 4.5 to 10.5), which goes through the key numbers of 7 and 10.
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
The Falcons (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are 1-3 over their last four games and just fell to the Bucs 30-17, failing to cover as 11-point home dogs. Similarly, the Panthers (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are also 1-3 over their last four and just fell to the Dolphins 33-10, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 3-point home favorite. With home teams typically receiving a couple points for home field advantage, oddsmakers are telling you that the Falcons would be a slight favorite on a neutral field. Respected money has grabbed the Falcons at the key number of 3, dropping the line to 2.5. Dogs off a loss are 33-22 ATS (60%) this season. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%) and short dogs 3 or less 20-10 ATS (67%). If the Falcons fall to 2.5, they will be an ideal teaser candidate ( 2.5 to 8.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. Sharp money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 43 to 41.
4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals
The 49ers (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) just fell to the Seahawks 30-23, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. Similarly, the Bengals (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) just lost to the Chargers 41-22, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati laying 2-points at home but has since flipped to San Francisco -1.5. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" wiseguy action on the 49ers. Non-conference favorites with high totals of 47 or more are roughly 59% ATS over the past decade. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (66-49 ATS, 57%). The 49ers are receiving 45% of bets but a whopping 70% of dollars at BetMGM, signaling wiseguy support in their favor. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 47.5 to 49. Both teams are 2-0 to the over their last two games.
More Week 14 Moves
Raiders-Chiefs Under 50 to 48
Jags 10.5 to 8.5 at Titans
Seahawks -6.5 to -8.5 at Texans
Broncos -8 to -11.5 vs Lions
Giants-Chargers Under 45.5 to 4
Bills-Bucs Over 52.5 to 54.5
Bears-Packers Under 44.5 to 43
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Post by Makers on Dec 13, 2021 6:52:23 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
These NFC West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Rams (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) are just 1-3 over their last four games, although they just crushed the Jaguars 37-7 last week, easily covering as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) have the best record in the NFL and have won three of their last four games. Arizona just took down Chicago 33-22, covering as 8-point road favorites. The Rams are 66 in point differential this season. The Cardinals are 119.
This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with the home team. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has remained at 2.5 or even dipped to 2 at some shops. This signals some sharp line freeze and reverse line movement action on the road dog Rams. Road dogs are 69-50 ATS (58%) this season, with short road dogs 3 or less 22-10 ATS (69%). Primetime dogs are 24-17 ATS (59%). The Rams also have value as a divisional dog. Sean McVay is 7-3 ATS in his career as a road dog. Los Angeles is also in a prime teaser spot ( 2.5 to 8.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5. When the total is 50 or more, the under is 31-25 (55%) this season. Primetime unders are 22-18 (55%), including 20-10 (67%) since October. Late season divisional unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. These teams met back on October 3 and Arizona won 37-20.
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Post by Makers on Dec 14, 2021 6:47:45 GMT -5
Early action NFL Week 15...
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
This primetime Saturday night matchup features two playoff contenders coming off bye weeks. The Patriots (9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS) have won seven straight and just took down the Bills 14-10, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Similarly, the Colts (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) are 6-2 over their last eight games and just waxed the Texans 31-10, easily covering as 10-point road favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Some shops even opened New England as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is happy to grab the points with the streaking Patriots, yet we've seen this line flip to Colts -2. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" reverse line movement on the Colts. At this point, the Patriots are in a prime teaser spot ( 2 to 8), which goes through multiple key numbers. Short road dogs 3 or less are 23-10 ATS (70%) this season. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 44 to 45.5. The Colts are 8-5 to the over this season. The Patriots are 7-6 to the under.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Both of these AFC foes have struggled as of late and are looking to get back on track. The Titans (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid with a 20-0 win over the Jags last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Steelers (6-6-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) are just 1-3 over their last four games. Pittsburgh just fell to Minnesota 36-28, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Titans listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with the home dog Steelers, dropping the line from 2.5 to 2. Some shops are even inching down to 1.5. Pittsburgh has a rest advantage, as they last played on Thursday while the Titans played on Sunday. Conference dogs 7 or less are 65-34 ATS (66%). Mike Tomlin is 43-22 ATS (66%) in his career as a dog. The Steelers are also in a valuable teaser spot ( 2 to 8), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This Sunday Night showdown features a pair of NFC South rivals coming off wins. The Saints (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) just crushed the Jets 30-9, easily covering as 4.5-point road favorites. The loss snapped a five-game losing streak for New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Bucs (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won four straight and just edged the Bills 33-27, covering in overtime as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as an 11.5-point home favorite. Sharps seem to think this line is a bit high and have grabbed the points with the Saints, dropping the line from 11.5 to 11 or even 10.5 at some shops. Road divisional dogs are 21-16 ATS (57%) this season. Conference dogs are 80-56 ATS (59%) and primetime dogs are 25-17 ATS (60%). Dogs off a blowout win of 20 points are 18-12 ATS (60%) over the past two seasons. The Saints beat the Bucs 36-27 in Week 8.
More Week 15 Moves
Chiefs -3 to -4 at Chargers
Raiders-Browns Under 43 to 42
Eagles -2.5 to -4.5 vs Washington
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Post by Makers on Dec 16, 2021 7:37:27 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers..
This Thursday Night showdown features the top two AFC West rivals facing off in primetime. The Chiefs (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) have won six straight games and just crushed the Raiders 48-9, easily covering as 10-point home favorites. Similarly, the Chargers (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, most recently beating the Giants 37-21 last week and covering a 9-point home favorites. The Chiefs are currently -225 favorites to win the AFC West at BetMGM. The Chargers have the 2nd-best odds at 200.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is hammering the red-hot Chiefs, especially laying such a short number. This lopsided betting pushed Kansas City up from -3 to -4 early in the week. But since that time we've seen a lot of buyback on the Chargers at 4 and 3.5, dropping the line back to 3 across the board. Esentially, we are looking at a Los Angeles line freeze and some reverse line movement in their favor. Conference dogs 7 or less are 66-34 ATS (66%) this season. Divisional dogs are 33-27 ATS (55%) and primetime dogs are 25-17 ATS (60%). Justin Herbert is 3-1 ATS this season as a dog and 7-4 ATS (64%) in his career.
Those looking to back the Chargers would be wise to wait out for the hook to back up ( 3.5) as game-day betting typically favors Mahomes and company. The Chargers upset the Chiefs 30-24 in Week 3 as 7-point road dogs. The Chiefs will miss several defensive players with Chris Jones and Willie Gay on the COVID list and L'Jarius Sneed sitting out for personal reasons.
We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 50 to 52. There may be some value buying low on the inflated under 52. Both teams are 7-6 to the under. When the total is 50 or higher, the under is 31-26 (54%) this season. Primetime unders are 22-19 (54%) on the season but 20-11 (65%) since October. Late season divisional unders are 14-9 (61%) since Week 10.
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Post by Makers on Dec 21, 2021 12:51:54 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
This game was rescheduled from Sunday to today due to COVID 19 positives on both sides. The Seahawks (5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won two straight games and just waxed the Texans 33-13, easily covering as 9.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Rams (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) have won two straight and are coming off a big primetime upset win over the Cardinals 30-23, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line originally opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point home favorite. With the Rams placing 29 players in COVID protocol, the line fell to 4.5. But once the game was moved and more Rams players were removed from the list, the line shot back up to Rams -7. The Seahawks have COVID issues of their own, with nine players in protocol. Road dogs 7 or less are 61-27 ATS (69%) this season. Russell Wilson is 25-12 ATS (68%) in his career as a dog. Road divisional dogs are 25-16 ATS (61%). Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (35-22 ATS, 61%). These teams met back on October 7 and the Rams won 26-17 in Seattle.
7 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles
This NFC East clash was also pushed back from Sunday to tonight due to COVID. Washington (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) just fell to the Cowboys 27-20, failing to cover as 6.5-point home dogs. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Washington. Meanwhile, the Eagles (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won three of their last four games and just dismissed the Jets 33-18, easily covering as 5-point road favorites. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4-point home favorite. With Washington placing 23 players in COVID protocol, we saw this line balloon up to Eagles -7. With Washington's COVID outlook improving, the line has settled down at Eagles -6.5. Philadelphia has a big rest advantage, as the Eagles are coming off a bye and Washington played on Sunday. Favorites off a bye are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. The Eagles will likely be a popular teaser play (-6.5 to -0.5). If both Taylor Heinicke and Brandon Allen are both out, practice squader Kyle Shurmur could start at quarterback for WFT.
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Post by Makers on Dec 22, 2021 6:56:43 GMT -5
Early.NFL Week 16...
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
These playoff hopefuls are trending in opposite directions. The Colts (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) are 7-2 over their last nine games and just beat the Patriots 27-17, covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) once had the NFL's best record but have since lost two straight and just fell to the lowly 30-12, losing outright as 13-point road favorites. This early lookahead line was Cardinals -4. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. As soon as this number was posted, wiseguys pounced on the red-hot Colts plus the points, dropping the line down a pick'em. Some shops are even hopping the fence to Colts -1. Essentially, Indianapolis is receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (67-50 ATS, 57%). The Colts also have a rest advantage, having played on Saturday while the Cardinals played Sunday..
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-2.5, 41.5)
If the NFL Draft was today, these teams would have two of the top four picks. The Jags (2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS) have dropped six straight and just fell to the Texans 30-16, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Jets (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS) have lost three straight and just fell to the Dolphins 31-24, although New York covered as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with New York listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two awful teams and doesn't know who to back. Yet we've seen the Jets move from -1.5 to -2.5, signaling sharp money laying the points with the short home favorite. Keep an eye on the weather in this one. The forecast calls for low 30s with possibly some rain and 15 MPH winds. The total is 41.5. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically. The Jags are 11-3 to the under this season.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Both of these AFC West rivals are hanging by a thread in terms of their postseason chances. The Broncos (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) just lost to the Bengals 15-10, losing outright as a 3-point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Raiders (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) just beat the Browns 16-14, although they failed to cover as 3-point road favorites. This line opened at a pick'em. We've seen respected money back Las Vegas, pushing the Raiders to a 1-point home favorite. One reason for the line move to Vegas: the Broncos are expected to start backup Drew Lock in place of injured Teddy Bridgewater. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. Denver is 11-3 to the under this season. Late season divisional unders are 17-12 (59%) since Week 11.
More Week 15 Moves Dolphins-Saints Under 40.5 to 38.5 Washington-Cowboys Under 48 to 46.5 Patriots -2 to -2.5 vs Bills Texans 11 to 9.5 vs Chargers Eagles -9 to -10 vs Giants
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Post by Makers on Dec 23, 2021 8:33:41 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
These non-conference playoff teams are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) have won two straight and are 6-2 over their last eight games. San Francisco just beat Atlanta 31-13, easily covering as 9-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) started 8-2 but are just 1-3 over their last four games. Tennessee just fell to Pittsburgh 19-13, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs.
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the red-hot 49ers, which drove this line up to 49ers -3.5 or even -4 at some shops. That's when some wiseguy buyback jumped on the Titans at an inflated price, dropping the line back down to 3. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze and some late reverse line movement on Tennessee, who also has value as a contrarian dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 26-19 ATS (58%) this season. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is 5-2 ATS this season as a dog and 17-11 ATS (61%) in his career. On the flip side, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is just 13-23 ATS (36%) as a favorite. Those interested in backing the Titans should wait to see if the line ticks back up to 3.5 on gameday, which it might as the public piles on San Francisco.
49ers starting running back Elijah Mitchell will miss this game with an injury. The Titans will be missing offensive linemen Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold due to injury. Tennessee could activate wide receiver AJ Brown from injured reserve.
The total has dipped slightly from 44.5 to 44, signaling some under support. When the total is 45 or less, the under is 46-38 (55%) this season. Non-conference unders are 42-28 (60%). Primetime unders are 26-21 (55%), including 24-13 (65%) since November 1st. Both teams are 2-0 to the under their last two games. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 31-25 (55%) to the under historically. Those looking to ride the dog and under edge in primetime might consider teasing the Titans up from 3 to 9 and then tease up the under from 44.5 to 50.5.
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Post by Makers on Dec 25, 2021 7:32:07 GMT -5
4:30 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers
The Browns (7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS) currently occupy the 11th spot in the AFC but are "in the hunt" for a divisional crown or Wild Card berth. Cleveland has rotated wins and losses the past eight weeks, most recently falling to the Raiders 16-14 but covering as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (11-3 SU, 11-3 ATS) own the best record in the NFL and can secure the 1-seed in the NFC by winning out the rest of the way. Green Bay just edged Baltimore 31-30, although the Packers failed to cover as 9-point road favorites.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. At BetMGM, 70% of bets and 90% of dollars are laying the points with the Packers. This lopsided betting pushed the line to Packers -8.5 early in the week. But then we saw some Browns money hit the market as several of their COVID players cleared protocols, which dropped the line back to 7.5. The Browns 7.5 is juiced to -115, signaling a possible further drop to 7. Road dogs are 74-55 ATS (57%) this season. Road dogs off a loss are 38-28 ATS (58%). Saturday road teams are 29-16 ATS (64%) over the past decade. Those looking to back Green Bay could tease the Packers down from -7.5 to -1.5, which goes through the key numbers of 7 and 3.
We've also seen some over money hit the market, driving the total up from 45 to 46.5. The over is getting 65% of bets but 85% of money at BetMGM. The forecast calls for low 30s at Lambeau. When the temperature is cold (35 degrees or less), the over is roughly 57% over the past decade. Green Bay is 4-0 to the over their last four games.
8:15 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
If the playoffs began today, both of these non-conference foes would be in. The Colts (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) are 7-2 over their last nine games and just beat the Patriots 27-17, covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) once had the NFL's best record but have since lost two straight and just fell to the lowly 30-12, losing outright as 13-point road favorites.
The early lookahead line was Cardinals -4. As soon as this number dropped, wiseguys pounced on the red-hot Colts plus the points, dropping the line down Arizona -1 or even a pick'em. But then we saw COVID concerns pop up with the Colts, which caused major buyback on the Cardinals, steaming the line back up to Arizona -2 or even -2.5 at some shops. At BetMGM, 54% of bets and 58% of dollars are on Indianapolis. The line has the makings of a pros vs Joes game, with the Colts the trendy dog and the Cardinals the buy-low contrarian favorite. The Colts have teaser value at their current price ( 2 to 8). Short road dogs 3 or less are 24-12 ATS (67%) this season.
Respected money has also hit the over, pushing the total up from 48 to 49. The over is getting 51% of bets but 63% of money.
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Post by Makers on Dec 25, 2021 9:12:45 GMT -5
Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at the South Point in Las Vegas, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for 30 years. Saturday, Dec. 25
Cleveland at Green Bay (-7.5, 46)
A highly bet game. Green Bay is a public team, and they’re up first on the card. I opened Green Bay -8 and sharps took the Browns at + 8 and + 7.5. There was an assumption Baker Mayfield will return to action for Cleveland (confirmed as I was writing this article). When I moved to the key number of 7, the public came in hard on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, so I’m back to 7.5 right now. The public is still laying that price with the Pack. Sharps are reinvesting in the Browns. One thing that sharps and the public agree on is that Green Bay makes a lot of sense in 6-point teasers. Teasing down across both the 7 and the 3 is a popular sharp strategy. I’ve taken a lot of teaser bets on the Packers. Cold, but windless conditions shouldn’t be a factor for these upper-Midwest franchises. My opening total of 45.5 was first bet down to 44.5, but it was then bet up to 45, 45.5 and now 46 Friday morning. Indianapolis at Arizona (-1.5, 49) Big game. I opened Arizona -1 and my first sharp bet was on the Colts, so I dropped to pick-em. Other sharps laid it back and I returned to -1. When Nelson was ruled out late Friday morning Las Vegas time, I moved to Arizona -1.5. That was quickly bet to -2. The public looked to be slightly favoring the Colts before Nelson was scratched. I wouldn’t be shocked if action slanted even more toward Arizona on game day. Excellent two-way play so far on my opening total of 49. I’m planning to provide a twitter update Saturday (@andrewssports) if the lines move on additional headlines. Sunday, Dec. 26
Tampa Bay (-10, 43) at Carolina
Carolina’s playing so poorly lately (four straight non-covers), that I opened Tampa Bay -11.5, even after the Bucs suffered some injuries in their loss to the Saints. Sharps took the Panthers + 11.5, + 11 and + 10.5, so I’m down to 10, with Tampa Bay finally getting some play back from the public. Recreational bettors often like teasing double digit favorites down to make the lines seem cheaper, and playing them in moneyline parlays just to win straight up. Tampa Bay burned that strategy last week in the loss to New Orleans. Not seeing any teaser or parlay interest in the Bucs yet this week. My opening total of 45 has been bet down to 44.5, 44 and now 43. NY Giants at Philadelphia (-10, 40.5)
Not much interest yet from the public. A few sharps took the Giants at my opener of + 10, but not enough for me to move the number. Philadelphia played this past Tuesday, which cut down on betting time for the public. And, the Eagles couldn’t win by more than 10 against shorthanded Washington. Sharps have been betting Under. I dropped my opening total of 42 straight to 41. More wiseguy action has driven the line to 40.5. Winds are supposed to be 10-15 mph, which can wreak havoc in this stadium. LA Chargers (-11, 46.5) at Houston
Both teams are dealing with covid outbreaks. That could mean more developments between now and kickoff. News broke about the Chargers first. My opening line of LAC -11 was bet down to -10. I took the game off the board, then reopened at -8. Sharps and the public laid -8, -9 and -10 as Houston’s situation became more clear. I’m back where I started at Chargers -11. My opening total of 47.5 was bet down to 46.5 by respected money. Detroit at Atlanta (-6.5, 42.5)
Jared Goff is out for Detroit. Before that news, I had opened Atlanta -4. Sharps laid the 4. That money, plus covid rumors, pushed me quickly to Atlanta -5.5. When Goff was ruled out, I went straight to Atlanta -6.5. I’ll probably be at -7 eventually. I need to further evaluate our risk at the South Point before bringing that key number into play. Hardly any business at all on my total. I opened 44 and dropped to 42.5 on the Goff news. Baltimore at Cincinnati (-4.5, 44.5)
I opened Cincinnati -2.5. Sharps laid that and -3, knowing Baltimore had some lingering covid issues and Lamar Jackson was still dealing with an ankle injury. Optimism for Jackson’s return dimmed Friday morning. I moved to Cincinnati -4.5 on that news. My opening total of 44.5 had seen really good two-way action when Jackson was a question mark. We’ll see what the weekend brings. Weather is supposed to be nice, so that’s a non-factor. LA Rams (-3.5, 48.5) at Minnesota
I opened the Rams -3 and sharps laid that price. And, news broke that Dalvin Cook would miss the game for Minnesota, so I went to Rams -3.5. Pretty even business since the move. My opening total of 49 was bet down to 48.5. But, I still see some 49’s out there. Public betting may drive the number in this marquee matchup higher by kickoff. Jacksonville at NY Jets (-2, 41.5)
Another covid game. Though, there’s not much star power on either team. So, the drop-off in play quality may not be that much. This is my lowest ticket count of the weekend so far. But, plenty of action from sharps betting value through headline updates. I opened Jets -3. Covid hit them first. Sharps took Jacksonville + 3 and + 2.5. I dropped all the way down to pick-em because the Jets would be missing so many guys. As Jaguars news hit, I went back up to NYJ -1.5 and then -2.5. I’m back at 2 now. Almost no betting on my opening total of 41.5. Buffalo at New England (-2.5, 43.5)
Looking forward to this one. So far, it’s been the perfect bookmaking game. A lot of play on both teams at my opener of Patriots -2.5. Great two-way play on my opening total of 43.5. No chance for a push on either of those if they stick at their current prices. I should note, though, that sharps don’t love the Patriots or they would have driven the game to the key number of 3. We’ve talked in the past about how to read things “that don’t happen.” New England opened below a key number and wasn’t driven higher. That tells you sharps would come in hard on Buffalo + 3 if the public heavily supported the favorite between now and kickoff. I think we’ll stay at 2.5. Chicago at Seattle (-6, 42)
Less time for the public to bet this one because Chicago played Monday night, Seattle Tuesday night. I opened Seattle -6.5. A sharp placed a big bet on the Bears Thursday morning, so I dropped to 6. Then, news broke Friday morning that Nick Foles would get the start for Chicago. I’m back to Seattle -6.5. My opening total was 43. I dropped to 42 on the Foles news. I see 41.5’s out there. Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-7.5, 45)
We’ve been all over the place here because of covid. I opened Kansas City -10.5 and sharps bet it down to 10. Then, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and other Chiefs were ruled out. I took the game off the board for a day. I reopened Kansas City -8. That was bet down to -7.5 by sharps. The public is still taking the Chiefs. And, KC is showing up in a lot of 6-point teasers since going back on the board. My total opened 46.5, dropped as low as 44.5, and is currently at 45. Denver at Las Vegas (pick-em, 41.5)
My opener of Raiders -1 was bet down to pick-em. I’ve been getting pretty good two-way play at that price. Locals betting on the Raiders have become pretty subdued. If the Silver and Black had been winning, there would have been a bandwagon effect. Instead, the team has been very inconsistent. Even last Monday’s win at Cleveland was a nailbiter against a third-string quarterback. My opening total of 42 was bet down to 41.5. Washington at Dallas (-10, 47) A lot of action here. I opened Dallas -10 and I’m currently at Dallas -10. But, it’s been a helluva ride getting back to where I started. My opener was bet up to -10.5 and -11. Washington’s stats were horrible Tuesday in the loss to Philadelphia. But, when it became clear that quarterback Taylor Heinicke would be returning for Washington, sharps jumped in hard. Wiseguys bet Washington + 11, + 10.5 and are still betting them at + 10. Dallas has drawn enough support to stick on the 10. My opening total of 47 hasn’t moved, but has drawn very good two-way action. This will be my most heavily bet game Sunday, with “America’s Team” Dallas playing in a prime-time showcase. Monday, Dec.27
Miami (-2.5, 37.5) at New Orleans
This favorite flipped because Ian Book will be forced to start for New Orleans. I had opened Saints -3. First bet was on the Dolphins from a sharp who got in ahead of the news. I took the game off the board for a while. I reopened pick-em. Sharps took Miami at pick-em, -1 and -1.5 (one of my biggest players laid -1.5). I skipped two and went straight to Miami -2.5. No buy back yet on the home dog. Not much action on the total. I dropped from my opener of 39 down to 38 on the Book news without any bets. Sharps have bet it down to 37.5. Attachments:
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Post by Makers on Dec 26, 2021 8:27:40 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) have lost three straight and just fell to the Packers 31-30, although Baltimore covered as 9-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) just beat the Broncos 15-10, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money laid the points with Cincinnati early in the week, driving the line up from Bengals -2.5 to -3. But then we saw this line balloon to Bengals -7 on Saturday when word surfaced that the Ravens would be without both of their top two quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. In their place, journeyman backup Josh Johnson will get the start for Baltimore. Cincinnati could be a teaser option (-7 to -1). We've also seen this total fall from 43.5 to 41.5.
1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
The Bills (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) just waxed the Panthers 31-14, covering as 14.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Patriots (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS) just fell to the Colts 27-17, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with New England listed as a 2-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw this line inch up to Patriots -2.5. But over the past 24-hours we've seen wiseguys steam the Bills, dropping the line down to Patriots -1. Short road dogs 3 or less are 25-12 ATS (68%) this season. Road divisional dogs are 25-17 ATS (60%). Josh Allen is 15-9 ATS (62%) in his career as a dog. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (34-22 ATS (60%). Respected money is also leaning under, as the total dropped from 44.5 to 43.5. When the total is 45 or less, the under is 46-38 (55%) this season. Late season divisional unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. The forecast calls for mid 30s with 10-15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 41-26 (61%).
1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
The Jags (2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS) have dropped six straight and just fell to the Texans 30-16, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Jets (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS) have lost three straight and just fell to the Dolphins 31-24, although New York covered as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with New York listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Early money laid the points with the Jets, driving New York up to -2.5. Then we saw the line fall to a pick'em once Jets HC Robert Saleh tested positive for COVID. But then the line ticked back up to Jets -2. Essentially all liability has been on the Jets. The forecast calls for low 30s with possibly some rain and 15 MPH winds. The total is 41.5. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically. The Jags are 11-3 to the under this season.
More Week 16 Moves
Panthers 11.5 to 10 vs Bucs
Bucs-Panthers Under 45 to 42.5
Eagles -9 to -10 vs Giants
Chargers-Texans Under 47 to 45.5
Falcons -4.5 to -6.5 vs Lions
Bears-Seahawks Under 43.5 to 41.5
Steelers-Chiefs Under 46.5 to 45.5
Dolphins 3 to -2.5 at Saints
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Post by Makers on Jan 1, 2022 6:11:51 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Penn State
This is the Outback Bowl and it will be played at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Arkansas (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is ranked 21st and went 4-1 down the stretch, most recently beating Missouri 34-17 and covering as 14.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Penn State (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) is unranked and went just 2-5 over their past seven games, most recently falling to Michigan State 30-27 but covering as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Penn State listed as a short 3-point favorite. Respected money has pounced on Arkansas, flipping the Razorbacks to a 3-point favorite. This line move was due in large part to significant opt-outs on the Penn State side, including their leading receiver and several defensive starters. Those looking to bet against the opt-outs but wary of laying the points could target Arkansas on the moneyline 145).
1 p.m. ET: Kentucky vs Iowa
This is the Citrus Bowl and it will be played in Orlando, Florida. Kentucky (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) is ranked 22nd and is riding a three-game winning streak, most recently crushing Louisville 52-21 as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Iowa (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) is ranked 15th but just got waxed by Michigan 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship game, failing to cover as 12-point dogs. This line opened with Iowa listed as a short 1.5-point favorite. Wiseguys have steamed Kentucky, moving the Wildcats to a 3-point favorite. Iowa will be missing star RB Tyler Goodson, who opted out, along with several other defensive players due to injury. Both teams are giving up roughly 20 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Kentucky is averaging 33 PPG compared to Iowa averaging 24 PPG.
5 p.m ET: Utah vs Ohio State
This is the Rose Bowl and it will be played in Pasadena, California. Utah (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) is ranked 11th and has won six straight games, most recently crushing Oregon 38-10 to win the Pac 12 Championship, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Conversely, Ohio State (10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is ranked 6th overall but just fell to Michigan 42-27, losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 7-point favorite. The public is hammering the Buckeyes, yet we've seen this line fall from 7 to 4, signaling some sharp money grabbing Utah plus the points. Ohio State will miss several starters due to opt outs, including both their star WRs Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.
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Post by Makers on Jan 2, 2022 6:46:04 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans
The Dolphins (8-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) are red-hot and have won seven straight, most recently beating the Saints 20-3 and easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS) have won two of their last three and just upset the 49ers 20-17, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. At BetMGM, 57% of bets are laying the points with Tennessee, yet we've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Dolphins, with wiseguys grabbing the hook. Road dogs 7 or less are 63-29 ATS (68%) this season. Conference dogs are 92-70 ATS (57%). Miami also has value as a dog in a total total game (40). Shawn Smith, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (35-22 ATS, 61%). Tua Tagovailoa is 6-2 ATS (75%) as a dog in his career.
1 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
The Chiefs (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) have won eight games in a row and just demolished the Steelers 36-10, easily covering as 10-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bengals (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) have won two straight and just crushed the Ravens 41-21, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 4-point road favorite. Early in the week we saw Kansas City get steamed up from -4 to -5. But over the past 24-hours, we've seen heavy wiseguy buyback on the Bengals, dropping the line back down to 4. Some shops are even falling to 3.5. Essentially all late movement is breaking toward the Bengals. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (59-48 ATS, 55%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 71-41 ATS (63%) this season. We could also be in for a higher scoring game, as the total has ticked up from 47 to 50.5. The over is 6-3 in the last nine Bengals games and 4-2 in the last six Chiefs games.
4:05 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
The Texans (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) have won two straight games and just shocked the Chargers 41-29, winning outright as 13.5-point home dogs. Conversely, the 49ers (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) just fell to the Titans 20-17, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 15-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Houston getting big points, dropping the line from 15 to 12.5. This move was due in large part to Jimmy Garoppolo's thumb injury, who is expected to miss the game. Rookie Trey Lance is expected to get the start in his place. Houston has value as a double-digit dog in a low total game (44). Dogs getting 11 or more points with a total of 46 or less are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Road dogs are 79-60 ATS (57%) this season.
More Week 17 Moves
Bears -4 to -6.5 vs Giants
Bucs -11 to -13.5 at Jets
Eagles -3 to -4.5 at Washington
Rams -2.5 to -6 at Ravens
Chargers -6 to -7.5 vs Broncos
Cowboys -3 to -6.5 vs Cardinals
Lions 9.5 to 7.5 at Seahawks
Packers -7 to -13 vs Vikings
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Post by Makers on Jan 3, 2022 6:39:23 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
This AFC North showdown features two teams with differing motivations. The Browns (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) have three of their last four games and just fell to the Packers 25-22 on Christmas Day, although Cleveland covered as 7.5-point road dogs. Cleveland has been eliminated from the playoffs and is looking to play spoiler. Meanwhile, the Steelers (7-7-1 SU, 6-9 ATS) are also limping down the stretch, going just 2-4 over their last six games. Pittsburgh just got crushed by Kansas City 36-10, failing to cover as 10-point road dogs. The Steelers are still "in the hunt" and not yet eliminated from playoff contention.
The early lookahead line on this game was Steelers -1.5 at home. We saw heavy Browns money show up early in the week, steaming Cleveland all the way to a 3.5-point road favorite. Then late Sunday night we saw massive sharp action hit the Steelers, flipping Pittsburgh back to a 2-point home favorite. Essentially all late money is siding with the Steelers now that the Browns are eliminated from the postseason. This is also likely to be Big Ben's final game at Heinz Field. At BetMGM, Pittsburgh is receiving 55% of bets and 62% of dollars. Brad Allen, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54% ATS). Monday Night Football home favorites are 7-2 straight up this season. The Steelers are -130 on the moneyline.
We've also seen some slight over money, pushing the total up from 41 to 42. Bets are split 50/50 but the over is getting 62% of the money at BetMGM. The forecast calls for clear skies and cold 30 degree temperatures. When the temperature is freezing, the over is 57% over the past decade. These teams met back on October 31 and the Steelers won 15-10.
Here are the updated Super Bowl Odds at BetMGM
Packers 400
Chiefs 500
Bucs 700
Bills 800
Rams 900
Cowboys, Titans 1200
Cardinals, Patriots 1800
Bengals, Colts 2000
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