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Post by Makers on Jan 5, 2022 6:12:39 GMT -5
Early action for NFL Week 18...
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Both of these teams are on the playoff bubble and must win and get some help in order to make the postseason. The Steelers (8-7-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) just beat the Browns 26-14, covering as 1-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Ravens (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) have been decimated by injuries and lost five straight. The Ravens just fell to the Rams 20-19, although Baltimore covered as a 7-point home dog. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with Big Ben, dropping the line down from 6.5 to 5.5. Short road dogs 6 or less are 48-27 ATS (64%) this season. Pittsburgh has value as a divisional dog and a dog with a low total (41). The lead ref, Shawn Hochuli, has historically favored road teams (35-25 ATS, 58%). Mike Tomlin is 44-23 ATS (66%) in his career as a dog.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
This game is a classic example of differing motivations. The Seahawks (6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) have been eliminated from playoff contention and rumors are swirling that Wilson and Carroll are due for a break up. On the flip side, the Cardinals (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS) are coming off a big win over Dallas and can catch the Rams for the division if they win this game and get some help. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, pushing Arizona up to -6.5. This could be a tease play, taking Arizona down from -6.5 to -0.5. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 46.5 to 48. These teams met back on November 21 and the Cardinals won 23-13.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
This is a huge game for both NFC West teams, as the 49ers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) are currently the 6-seed while the Rams (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) are the 2-seed. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall to 4, which indicates respected money grabbing the points with the 49ers. San Francisco has value as a road divisional dog with a line move in their favor. These teams met back in Week 10 and the 49ers dominated and won 31-10. Kyle Shanahan is 24-17 ATS (59%) in his career as a dog.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
This AFC West matchup was flexed to Sunday Night as both teams are on the bubble and fighting for their playoff lives. The Chargers opened as a 2.5-point road favorite and heavy public betting on Herbert and Company has pushed the line up to key number of 3. We've seen some sharp buyback on the Raiders 3, with many shops juicing up Vegas 3 to -115, signaling a possible fall back to 2.5. One big variable here: the Raiders might get star tight end Darren Waller back from injury. Vegas has value as a contrarian divisional dog at home. Primetime dogs have cashed at roughly a 57% clip this season. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game. The total has been steamed up from 47.5 to 49.5.
More Week 18 Moves
Cowboys -4 to -7 at Eagles
Chiefs -3 to -10 at Broncos
Lions 11 to 2.5 vs Packers
Bears 6 to 2.5 at Vikings
Patriots -2.5 to -6.5 at Dolphins
Colts -8.5 to -15.5 at Jags
Washington -3.5 to -6.5 at Giants
Bengals 1.5 to -3 at Browns
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Post by Makers on Jan 7, 2022 7:11:59 GMT -5
MVP
Midway through the season this was Tom Brady's award to lose. And it appears he will lose out to Aaron Rodgers. The Packers QB is a -400 favorite to win MVP entering the final weekend. Rodgers is receiving 8.2% of tickets but 21.3% of the money at BetMGM. Rodgers has guided Green Bay to the 1-seed and the best record in the NFL. Brady has thrown for more yards (4,990 vs 3,977) and touchdowns (40 vs 35). But Rodgers has thrown fewer interceptions (4 vs 12) and has a higher rating (111.1 vs 100.5). Offensive Rookie of the YearMuch like the MVP, this award was ticketed to Patriots QB Mac Jones for much of the year. But Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase just overtook Jones and is now a -225 favorite. Chase was as high as 500 entering Week 17 but then he dazzled with 11 catches, 266 yards and 3 touchdowns against Kansas City and has since flipped to the favorite. Chase now sits at 70 catches, 1,429 yards and 13 touchdowns on the season. Chase is receiving 18.3% of tickets but 31.1% of money. One wonders if the voters will be biased against Jones (now 185) due to the fact that he landed in the best situation with a stable franchise and great coaching. Offensive Player of the YearThis is the most interesting award to bet on because it's a literal coin flip between the best wide receiver and the best running back. Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor are both co-favorites at -110. Kupp leads the NFL with 138 catches, 1,829 yards and 15 touchdowns, the vaunted "triple crown." Meanwhile, Taylor has rushed for 1,734 yards and 18 touchdowns, including a 5.5 average. Taylor is receiving 15.7% of the tickets but only 14.3% of the money, which means his support is likely public money. However, Kupp is receiving only 7.5% of tickets but 22.2% of the money. That pronounced "low bets, higher dollars" bet split signals quiet yet bold sharp money on Kupp to win the award. Defensive Player of the YearSteelers edge rusher T.J. Watt has separated from the pack and is now a -400 favorite to win the award. Watt leads the NFL with 21.5 sacks. The next closest player in Robert Quinn with 18 sacks. Watt is receiving 22% of bets but a whopping 48.7% Of the handle, a massive smart money discrepancy. As high as the -400 seems, it still might be worth laying it. Micah Parsons has the next best odds at 350 but he was just placed in COVID protocol and could miss the finale. Watt is 180 to break the record for sacks (Strahan has 22.5). He would need 1.5 sacks in the finale against the Ravens. Comeback Player of the YearCowboys QB Dak Prescott was the favorite to win the award all season and remains the favorite at -200. But the gap has shortened thanks to late steam hitting Bengals QB Joe Burrow ( 105). Prescott is receiving 22.7% of tickets but 25.3% of the handle. Meanwhile, Burrow is receiving 20.8% of bets but 53.4% of the handle, a sharper bet split. Burrow has the higher completion percentage (70.4 vs 68.4), more touchdowns (34 vs 32), more yards (4,611 vs 4,154) and a higher QB rating (108.3 vs 100.9). Burrow won't play in the finale. But with better numbers and late movement in his favor he may be worth a look at 105. Coach of the YearSimilar to the Offensive Rookie of the Year, this award is a coin flip between two coaches. Zac Taylor of the Bengals and Matt Lafleur are both co-favorites at 160. Mike Vrabel of the Titans is 350 but receiving the most tickets (18.2%). While Lafluer has lead Green Bay to the best record in the NFL, voters may hold it against him that he has Aaron Rodgers. After all, any coach would look great if Rodgers was their quarterback. On the flip side, Taylor has received a lot of late action. Historically, this award has gone to a coach who takes a bad team and flips them into a good team. The Bengals went 4-11-1 last season and are now 10-6 and won the division. That rags to riches success story typically brings this award home.
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Post by Makers on Jan 8, 2022 6:36:55 GMT -5
4:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
This AFC West clash features two teams with contrasting motivations. The Chiefs (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) currently occupy the 2-seed in the AFC playoffs but can catch the Titans for the top spot with a win and Tennessee loss. Kansas City just fell to the Bengals 34-31, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Broncos (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) have been eliminated from the playoffs. Denver has lost three straight and just got crushed by the Chargers 34-13, failing to cover as 8-point road dogs.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 10-point road favorite. Early chalk money drove this up to Chiefs -11.5. Over the past 24-hours, we've seen some Broncos buyback hit the market, dropping the line back down to 10.5. At BetMGM, the Chiefs are receiving 68% of bets but 92% of dollars, signaling both public and sharp support. The Chiefs could be worth a look in a teaser (-10.5 to -4.5), which goes through the key numbers of 10 and 7. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 22-9 in early December, covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Denver will be missing two starting cornerbacks due to injury.
We've also seen some over money show up, ticking the total up from 43 to 45. The over is getting 45% of bets but 62% of dollars. The forecast calls for mid 30s with low 4 MPH winds. Brad Rogers, the lead ref, has historically favored overs (45-25, 64%).
8:15 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
This primetime matchup features a pair of postseason bound NFC East rivals. The Cowboys (11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS) have already clinched the division but could rise from the 4-seed to the 2-seed with a win. Dallas is looking to rebound from a 25-22 loss to Arizona last week, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Eagles (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) currently occupy the 7-seed but could rise to the 6-seed with a win. Philadelphia has won four straight and just edged Washington 20-16, although the Eagles failed to cover as 6-point road favorites.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point road favorite. Early in the week, the Cowboys got steamed up all the way to -7. But then COVID issues popped up with the Cowboys, dropping the line from 7 to 4. Some shops are even hinting at a fall to 3.5. Essentially all late action is flowing toward the home dog Eagles. Philadelphia has value as a divisional dog, a dog with a low total and a primetime dog (29-24 ATS, 55% this season). Dallas has ruled out CB Trevon Diggs, OT Tyron Smith and RB Tony Pollard with injuries.
Respected money has leaned over here, driving the total up from 41.5 to 43.5. These teams met back in late September and Dallas rolled 41-21. The forecast calls for high 20s, clear skies and light 5 MPH winds.
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Post by Makers on Jan 9, 2022 6:46:24 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
This is a must win for both teams as they find themselves on the playoff bubble. The Steelers (8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS) are 3-2 over their last five games and just beat the Brown 26-14, covering as 1-point home favorites. On the flipside, the Ravens (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) have lost five straight and just fell to the Rams 20-19, although Baltimore covered as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. We've seen respected money grab the Steelers plus the points, dropping the line from 6.5 to 3.5. Pittsburgh has value as a road divisional dog and a dog with a low total (41). Short road dogs 6 or less are 48-27 ATS (64%) this season. Mike Tomlin is 6-4 ATS this season as a dog and 44-23 ATS (66%) in his career as a dog. The total has fallen from 42 to 41. Weather could benefit the under here, with forecasts in the low 30s with possible rain and 10 MPH winds. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (58% ATS) and unders (57%).
4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
This is a huge game for two NFC West teams battling for playoff positioning. The 49ers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) currently occupy the 6-seed and have gone 6-2 over their last eight games. San Francisco just beat Houston 23-7, covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) have won five straight and just edged the Ravens 20-19, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with the Rams listed as a 6-point home favorite. Sharps have jumped on the road dog plus the points, dropping the line from 6 to 3.5. The 49ers have value as a road divisional dog with a line move in their favor. Kyle Shanahan is 24-17 ATS (59%) as a dog. At BetMGM, San Francisco is receiving 52% of bets but 66% of dollars, a sharp bet split discrepancy.
8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
This AFC West matchup was flexed to Sunday Night as both teams are on the bubble and fighting for their playoff lives. The Chargers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) just crushed the Broncos 34-13, easily covering as 8-point home favorites. On the other side, the Raiders (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) Have won three straight and just upset the Colts 23-20, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Heavily lopsided public betting has ticked the line up from 2.5 to 3. We've seen some sharp buyback on the Raiders getting the key number of 3. Vegas has value as a contrarian divisional dog at home. Primetime dogs are 29-24 ATS (55%) this season. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game. The total has been steamed up from 47.5 to 49. At BetMGM, the over is receiving 51% of bets but 71% of dollars, indicating wiseguy support.
Updated Super Bowl Odds at BetMGM
Packers 400 Chiefs 500 Bills, Bucs 800 Rams, Titans 900 Cowboys 1200 Patriots, Cardinals 1800 Bengals, Colts 2000 49ers, Chargers 4000
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Post by Makers on Jan 9, 2022 7:39:16 GMT -5
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Post by Gooba on Jan 9, 2022 7:51:18 GMT -5
The handle on KC went up to 95% yesterday, the largest I ever seen in a game. Tons of money came in at halftime on KC -7.5 for 2nd half when they were down 14-10
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Post by Makers on Jan 10, 2022 9:16:06 GMT -5
8 p.m. ET: Georgia vs Alabama
The two best teams in College Football face off for the championship trophy. The game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts. Georgia (13-1, 9-5 ATS) is ranked 3rd and just crushed Michigan 34-11 in the CFP semifinals, easily covering as 7.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Alabama (13-1 SU, 8-6 ATS) is ranked 1st and just dismissed Cincinnati 27-6 in the semifinals, covering as 13-point favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Early on, we saw wiseguys lay the points with the Bulldogs, driving the line up to -3. Over the weekend, we saw buyback hit Alabama 3, dropping the line back down to 2.5. A very interesting bet split is shaping up for this one. The public is all over the Crimson dog as a trendy dog, with Alabama receiving 64% of bets at BetMGM. However, a larger proportion of respected money is laying the points with Georgia, who is only receiving 36% of bets but 48% of money.
Reading between the lines, this looks to be a battle around the key number of 3, with pros targeting Georgia -2.5 and value minded bettors buying back on Alabama 3. This is a revenge game for Georgia, who lost to Alabama 41-24 in the SEC Championship game, losing outright as 6-point favorites.
The total hasn't budged off the opener of 52.5. Currently 68% of bets and 75% of money is on the over.
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Post by Makers on Jan 12, 2022 7:26:02 GMT -5
9 p.m. ET: Maryland at Northwestern
Both of these Big Ten opponents are looking to snap three-game losing streaks. Maryland (8-7 SU, 5-10 ATS) just lost a heartbreaker to Wisconsin 70-69, losing outright as 1-point home favorites. On the flip side, Northwestern (8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) just fell to Ohio State 95-87, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Northwestern listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split but wiseguys seem to be laying the chalk as we've seen Northwestern move from -3.5 to -4.5. Both teams are giving up roughly 66 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where Northwestern is averaging 78 PPG and Maryland only 70 PPG. Northwestern is the better shooting team as well (45% FG vs 43% FG). The Wildcats also share the ball more (19 APG vs 12 APG). Ken Pom has Northwestern winning 75-69. He has Northwestern ranked 44th vs Maryland 68th. Northwestern takes care of the ball, ranking 4th in the country in fewest turnovers. Northwestern is 6-2 at home this season. Maryland is 0-2 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Georgia Tech at Boston College
Both of these ACC rivals have struggled as of late. Georgia Tech (6-8 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) is just 1-7 over their last eight games and just lost to Notre Dame 72-68, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Boston College (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) has also dropped four straight, most recently falling to Pittsburgh 69-67 but covering as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Boston College listed as a 1-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the home favorite, pushing the Eagles from -1 to -2. Both teams are averaging roughly 67 PPG on offense. Boston College has a slight edge on defense, allowing 64 PPG vs 68 PPG. The Eagles may have an edge on the offensive glass, as they are ranked 2nd in the ACC in offensive rebound percentage. Ken Pom has BC winning 67-66. BC is 6-2 at home this season.
10:30 p.m. ET: Boise State at Nevada
This late night Mountain West clash features two teams riding hot streaks. Boise State (10-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) has won seven straight and just beat Fresno State 65-55, covering as 5-point home favorites. Similarly, Nevada (7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) is 6-1 over their last seven games and just beat New Mexico 79-70, although the Wolfpack failed to cover as 11-point home favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. We've seen respected money back Boise State, flipping the Broncos to a short 1.5-point road favorite. Nevada holds the edge on offense (77 PPG vs 69 PPG). But Boise State has a far better defense, only allowing 58 PPG compared to Nevada allowing 75 PPG. Ken Pom has Boise State winning this game 72-71. He has Boise State ranked 50th and Nevada 91st.
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Post by Makers on Jan 14, 2022 6:24:48 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Jan 15, 2022 8:04:54 GMT -5
4:30 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals
The Raiders (10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS) were once left for dead but won four straight down the stretch to sneak in as the 5-seed. The Raiders just upset the Chargers 35-32, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS) are the 4-seed and won the AFC North. Cincinnati rested their starters in Week 18, losing to the Browns 21-16 but covering as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Bengals listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with Burrow at home. However, we've seen this line fall from 6.5 to 5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Vegas, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Playoff dogs are 61-50 ATS (55%) over the past decade. Playoff dogs against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season are 20-10 ATS (67%). Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-8 ATS (78%).
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
These AFC East rivals trended in opposite directions down the stretch. The Patriots (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS) lost three of their last four and just fell to the Dolphins 33-24, losing outright as 6-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Bills (11-6 SU, 9-6-2 ATS) ended the regular season with four straight wins, including a 27-10 win over the Jets in the finale, covering as 16-point home favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The recency-biased public is happy to lay the short number with the Bills at home. Early in the week, we saw this line fall from 4.5 to 4. Over the past 24-hours some Bills -4 buyback hit the market, driving the line back up to 4.5. The Patriots have value as a divisional playoff dog (8-4 ATS, 67% the past decade). The Pats also have value as a divisional dog in a low total game. New England could have some teaser value as well ( 4.5 to 10.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. The forecast calls for bitter cold (5 degrees) along with mild 5 MPH winds. The public is betting the over, yet the total has actually risen from 43.5 to 44, signaling some "cold weather" contrarian over money.
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Post by Makers on Jan 16, 2022 6:53:48 GMT -5
The Bengals move from + 900 to + 550 to win the AFC and + 2000 to + 1200 to win the Super Bowl. The Bills move from + 360 to + 210 to win the AFC and + 700 to + 550 to win the Super Bowl.
With the Raiders and Patriots both eliminated, here are the updated odds to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM.
Packers + 375
Bills, Chiefs + 550
Bucs, Titans + 750
Rams + 1100
Bengals, Cowboys + 1200
Cardinals + 1800
49ers + 2000
Eagles + 6600
Steelers + 8000
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Post by Makers on Jan 16, 2022 6:57:07 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Eagles (9-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) played well down the stretch, going 6-2 over their last eight games to secure a Wild Card berth. The Eagles rested their starters in Week 18, falling to the Cowboys 51-26 and failing to cover as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bucs (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS) finished the regular season tied with the Packers for the best record in the NFL. Tampa Bay just crushed Carolina 41-17, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Currently 57% of bets are laying the points with Tampa Bay at BetMGM, making the Bucs the public side. For much of the week, the line remained frozen at 8.5. But over the past 24-hours, we've seen respected money side with the Eagles, dropping the line from 8.5 to 7.5. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-9 ATS (76%) over the past decade. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (58% ATS). We've also seen sharps target this under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 46. The weather is a big reason for the under steam. The forecast calls for 20 MPH winds and possibly some rain. These teams met back on October 14 and the Bucs won 28-22.
4:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
The 49ers (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) went 7-2 down the stretch to earn the 6-seed. San Francisco just upset the Rams 27-24, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Cowboys (12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS) went 5-1 in their last six to win the AFC East and earn the 3-seed. Dallas crushed Philadelphia 51-26 in the finale, easily covering as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is right down the middle and doesn't know who to take, with 51% of bets leaning laying the points with Dallas. Early in the week, it looked like this line may fall to 2.5. But over the past 48-hours we've seen the juice move back toward Dallas (-3 at -115). Sharps may be waiting for a hook to pop on the 49ers (+ 3.5). Kyle Shanahan is 25-18 ATS (58%) as a dog in his career. Playoff dogs against teams who missed the postseason the previous year are 20-10 ATS (67%) over the past decade. We've also seen some movement to the over (50 to 51). The over is getting 71% of bets and 91% of money at BetMGM.
8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
The Steelers (9-7-1 SU, 8-9 ATS) needed a Week 18 miracle to sneak into the playoffs as the 7-seed. Pittsburgh just upset Baltimore 16-13, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Chiefs (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) are the 2-seed and won the AFC West. Kansas City just edged the Broncos 28-24, failing to cover as 11.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 13-point home favorite. The line has fallen from 13 to 12.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-9 ATS (76%) over the past decade. Mike Tomlin is 7-4 ATS this season as a dog and 47-25 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career. Sharps have also hit this under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 46. If the total drops at least a point, the under is 24-18 (57%) over the past decade. The forecast calls for mid 30s with 10 MPH winds at Arrowhead. These teams met three weeks ago and the Chiefs won 36-10.
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Post by Makers on Jan 17, 2022 7:34:39 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
The Cardinals (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) were once the darling of the NFL but stumbled down the stretch, going just 1-4 over their last five games. Arizona just fell to Seattle 38-30 in Week 18, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) went 5-1 in their last six but lost to the 49ers 27-24 in the regular season finale, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. The Cardinals finished 83 in point differential. The Rams finished 88.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4-point home favorite. Some books touched 4.5 and immediately got hit with Arizona money, dropping the line back to 4. The line remained frozen at 4 much of the week. But over the weekend, we saw further sharp action hit Arizona, dropping the line from 4 to 3.5.
Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-9 ATS (76%) over the past decade. Divisional dogs in the playoffs are 8-5 ATS (62%). Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (36-23 ATS, 61%). These teams split the two regular season matchups, with the dog winning outright both times. Kyler Murray is 16-7 ATS (70%) in his career as a dog. The Cardinals went 8-1 on the road this season and only 3-5 at home. The Rams will miss both starting safeties due to injury, including Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp.
We've also seen some sneaky sharp under money show up. The total opened at 50 and the public is hammering the over, yet the line has stayed the same or fallen slightly to 49.5. Playoff totals that fall at least a half point are 24-18 (58%) to the under the past decade.
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Post by Makers on Jan 18, 2022 8:13:58 GMT -5
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans.
The 4-seed Bengals (11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS) are 4-1 over their last five games and just beat the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 1-seed Titans (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) are coming off a bye week after finishing off the regular season with three straight wins.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money seems to be laying the points with the Titans as we've seen Tennessee jump up from -3 to -3.5. Now that the hook is available, the Bengals offer value as a contrarian inflated dog. Joe Burrow is 10-7 ATS in his career as a dog. Favorites off a bye in the Divisional Round are just 28-38 ATS (42%) since 2004. Both teams are giving up roughly 21 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where the Bengals are averaging 27 PPG compared to the Titans averaging 24 PPG. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 46.5 to 47. The forecast calls for mid 30s with little to no wind.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
The 6-seed 49ers (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS) pulled off the only upset on Wild Card Weekend, taking down the Cowboys 23-17 as 3.5-point road dogs. Now they travel to Green Bay to face the 1-seed Packers (13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS).
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early money poured in on the Packers, driving this line up to 5.5. The Packers steam might have something to do with the 49ers injury report. Defensive stars Fred Warner and Nick Bosa both left the Dallas game with injuries and are questionable. The Packers are the most lopsided play of the weekend, with roughly 70% of bets laying the points. Green Bay will be a popular teaser as well, dropping the line down to basically a pick'em.
If this line reaches the key number of 6, expect some 49ers buyback. Kyle Shanahan is 26-18 ATS (59%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy G is 14-4 ATS (78%) as a dog. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 47.5. The forecast calls for frigid temperatures in the low teens and 10 MPH winds.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Both of these Super Bowl hopefuls are coming off Wild Card Weekend blowout wins. The 3-seed Bills (12-6 SU, 10-6-2 ATS) just dominated the Patriots 47-17, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the 2-seed Chiefs (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) just crushed the Steelers 42-21, covering as 11.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 2-point home favorite. We've seen this line tick up to Chiefs -2.5 at some shops, signaling some liability on the home team. The movement for this game will be fascinating over the next few days. On the one hand, how can you pass up Patrick Mahomes at home laying less than 3-points? On the other hand, how do you pass up the red-hot Bills getting points? If this line reaches 3, expect some buyback on the Bills getting the key number. Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS (64%) in his career as a dog. The Bills are also in a teaser spot ( 2.5 to 8.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. Pros seem to expect a high scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 53 to 55. The forecast at Arrowhead calls for mid 30s with mild 5 MPH winds. These teams met back in Week 5 and Buffalo upset the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead.
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Post by Makers on Jan 19, 2022 6:48:26 GMT -5
6:30 p.m. ET: Mississippi State at Florida
These SEC rivals are trending in opposite directions. Mississippi State (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS) is 6-1 over their last seven games and is coming off a big 87-86 win over Alabama, although the Bulldogs failed to cover as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Florida (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 71-63 win over South Carolina, covering as 4.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Florida listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public can't believe they can get Mississippi State, the better team who is playing better as of late, as a dog. However, pros seem to be fading the low hanging fruit and have steamed Florida up from -4 to -6. Ken Pom has the Gators winning 72-68. Florida is 6-3 at home this season. Mississippi State is 0-1 on the road.
7 p.m. ET: LSU at Alabama
LSU (15-2 SU, 13-4 ATS) is ranked 13th in the country and looking to bounce back from a 65-58 loss to Arkansas, in which the Tigers lost outright as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Alabama (11-6 SU, 7-10 ATS) is unranked and has lost three straight, most recently falling to Mississippi State 78-76, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to window to grab the points with trendy dog LSU. However, this line has risen further toward Alabama (-2.5 to -3.5). This signals sharp contrarian reverse line movement on the Crimson Tide. Alabama has value as a "fishy" unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. Ken Pom has Alabama winning 72-71. Alabama is -160 on the moneyline. Alabama is 7-1 at home this season.
7 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech at NC State
Virginia Tech (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 79-73 win over Notre Dame, although the Hokies failed to cover as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, NC State (9-9 SU, 5-13 ATS) just fell to Duke 88-73, failing to cover as 13.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as a 3-point road favorite. Respected money has grabbed the home dog plus the points, dropping NC State from 3 to 1. The Wolfpack will look to hold an edge on the boards. NC State is averaging 37 rebounds per game compared to Virginia Tech's 33. NC State also has the better offense, averaging 76 PPG compared to 70 for Virginia Tech. NC State is 6-4 at home this season. Virginia Tech is 2-3 on the road. Ken Pom has Virginia Tech winning 71-68.
9 p.m. ET: Xavier at DePaul
Xavier (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) enters this game ranked 20th in the country, having just beat Creighton 80-73 but failing to cover as 9-point home favorites. On the other hand, DePaul (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS) is unranked. After starting the season 9-1, DePaul is just 1-5 over their last six games, although they did just upset Seton Hall 96-92, winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Xavier listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the ranked team over the unranked team. However, we've seen this line fall from 7 to 6.5, signaling respected money taking the points with DePaul. Ken Pom has DePaul losing by six points (80-74), which means the hook on the 6.5 still provides some value. DePaul is 8-3 at home this season. Xavier is 2-1 on the road.
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