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Post by Makers on Jan 20, 2022 10:02:13 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic
Western Kentucky (10-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) is 2-3 over their last five games and just fell to North Texas 65-60, losing outright as a 2-point home favorite. Conversely, Florida Atlantic (9-8 SU, 7-7 ATS) is also 2-3 over their last five but is coming off a 96-67 blowout win over Charlotte, easily covering as 4-point home favorites. This line opened with Western Kentucky listed as a 2-point road favorite. Respected money has taken the points with home dog FAU, dropping the line from 2 to 1. Ken Pom has Western Kentucky winning by 1 point (73-72), so line shopping for hook could be crucial. Both of these teams are 2-2 in conference play. Florida Atlantic is 8-3 at home this season. Western Kentucky is 0-3 on the road.
7 p.m. ET: Akron at Bowling Green
Akron (10-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) is coming off a 74-73 win over Western Michigan in which they failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Bowling Green (9-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) just took care of business against Northern Illinois, winning 92-83 and covering as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Bowling Green listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Why is a 9-8 team favored over a 10-5 team? Shouldn't it be the other way around? The public is grabbing the point with the trendy dog, but wiseguys have laid it with Bowling Green at home, driving the line up from -1 to -2. Bowling Green has the edge on offense (84 PPG vs 73 PPG) and rebounding (41 RPG vs 37 RPG). Ken Pom has Bowling Green winning 77-74. Bowling Green is -130 on the moneyline. Bowling Green is 6-2 at home this season. Akron is 1-2 on the road.
7 p.m. ET: Saint Louis at Massachusetts
These teams are trending in opposite directions. Saint Louis (11-5) has won three of their last four and just beat Fordham 63-45. On the flip side, UMass has dropped four straight and just fell to Rhode Island 81-68. This line opened with Saint Louis listed as a short 3-point road favorite. We've seen this line rise from 3 to 3.5 at some shops, signaling wiseguy action laying the points with Saint Louis. Both teams are averaging roughly 78 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where UMass is giving up 78 PPG and Saint Louis only 66 PPG. Saint Louis also holds a big edge on the boards (39 RPG vs 32 RPG) and shooting (FG 46% vs 44%). Ken Pom has Saint Louis winning 80-76. He has Saint Louis ranked 73rd and Umass 156. Saint Louis is 2-1 in conference play. Umass is 0-4.
7 p.m. ET: Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern
Both of these teams have struggled as of late. Coastal Carolina (9-8 SU, 6-7 ATS) has dropped three straight and just fell to Appalachian State 84-76, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Georgia Southern (8-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) has lost three of their last four and just fell to South Alabama 73-67, although they covered as 8.5-point road dogs. This line opened at a true pick'em. We've seen this line lean slightly to Georgia Southern -1, signaling some sharp action in their favor. Georgia Southern is a perfect 5-0 at home this season. Coastal Carolina is 0-4 on the road. Ken Pom has Georgia Southern winning by 1 point (67-66), so a moneyline play might be the smarter route (-115).
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Post by Makers on Jan 22, 2022 8:36:39 GMT -5
4:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
The 4-seed Bengals (11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS) are 4-1 over their last five games and just beat the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 1-seed Titans (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) are coming off a bye week after finishing off the regular season with three straight wins.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money laid the points with the Titans early in the week, pushing Tennessee up from -3 to -3.5. Some shops touched 4 and got hit with Bengals 4 buyback. The Titans are receiving 65% of bets and 71% of money at BetMGM. At this point, the Bengals offer some buy-low contrarian value getting the hook. Joe Burrow is 10-7 ATS in his career as a dog. Favorites off a bye in the Divisional Round are just 28-38 ATS (42%) since 2004. Both teams are giving up roughly 21 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense, where the Bengals are averaging 27 PPG compared to the Titans averaging 24 PPG. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 46.5 to 47.5. The forecast calls for perfect football weather: mid 30s, clear with little to no wind. Currently 73% of bets and 74% of money is on the over.
8:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
The 6-seed 49ers (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS) pulled off the only upset on Wild Card Weekend, taking down the Cowboys 23-17 as 3.5-point road dogs. Now they travel to Green Bay to face the 1-seed Packers (13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS), who finished the regular season with the best record in the NFL.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early money poured in on the Packers, driving this line up to the key number of 6. Then we saw some sharp 49ers buyback at 6, dropping the line down from 6 to 5.5. The Packers are the most lopsided play of the weekend, with 80% of bets and 82% of money laying the points. Green Bay will be a popular teaser with the public, dropping the line down from 5.5 to a virtual pick'em. The 49ers have value as a super contrarian road dog with late movement in their favor. Kyle Shanahan is 26-18 ATS (59%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy G is 14-4 ATS (78%) as a dog. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (62-44 ATS, 58%). This total has dipped slightly from 47.5 to 47, signaling some under sharp money despite 65% of bets taking the over. Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the NFL in terms of pace. The forecast calls for frigid 8-degree weather with 10 MPH winds.
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Post by Makers on Jan 23, 2022 6:28:58 GMT -5
3 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Both of these divisional winners are coming off big Wild Card wins. The 4-seed Rams (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) crushed the Cardinals 34-11, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the 2-seed Bucs (14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS) brushed aside the Eagles 31-15, covering as 7-point home favorites.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. At BetMGM, the bets are split down the middle. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. However, we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5, signaling respected money grabbing the Rams plus the points. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-12 ATS (70%) over the past decade. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (36-25 ATS, 59%).
The Bucs have value as a cheap moneyline home favorite (-145). Over the past decade, Divisional Round home favorites are 27-10 (73%) straight up. The Bucs have a rest advantage as well, as Tampa Bay played on Sunday afternoon while the Rams are on a short week after playing Monday night.
We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48 despite 66% of bets taking the over. Playoff unders that fall at least a half point are 26-19 (58%) over the last decade. Hochuli has historically favored unders (34-25, 58%). The forecast calls for low 60d with 10-15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 16-8 (67%) in the playoffs the past decade.
6:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Both of these Super Bowl hopefuls are coming off Wild Card Weekend blowout wins. The 3-seed Bills (12-6 SU, 10-6-2 ATS) just dominated the Patriots 47-17, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the 2-seed Chiefs (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) just crushed the Steelers 42-21, covering as 11.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Mahomes at home at such a short price. However, despite 57% of bets taking the Chiefs, this line has fallen from 2.5 to 1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Buffalo, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Buffalo could be a prime teaser spot (+ 1.5 to+ 7.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS (64%) in his career as a dog. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-12 ATS (70%) over the past decade. Buffalo enjoys a rest advantage, having played last Saturday compared to the Chiefs playing last Sunday.
Pros and Joes both expect a high scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 53 to 54. Currently 83% of bets and 93% of money is on the over. The forecast at Arrowhead calls for low 30s with mild 5 MPH winds. These teams met back in Week 5 and Buffalo upset the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead.
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Post by Makers on Jan 23, 2022 6:34:32 GMT -5
Updated Super Bowl odds at BetMGM
Chiefs + 375
Bills, Bucs + 400
49ers + 450
Rams + 550
Bengals + 700
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Post by Makers on Jan 24, 2022 6:43:31 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Florida at MississippiThis SEC grudge match looks lopsided on paper. Florida (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS) have won three straight games and just waxed Vanderbilt 61-42, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Mississippi (9-9 SU, 7-11 ATS) has dropped four straight and just got rolled by Mississippi State 78-60, failing to cover as 11-point road dogs. This line opened with Florida listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Gators, yet we've seen this line fall from 6 to 5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Rebels plus the points. Ole Miss has value as a contrarian conference dog with a line move in their favor. Ken Pom has Florida winning by six points (69-63). One variable to note here: Florida will miss leading scorer Colin Castleton (15.4 PPG) with an injury. Ole Miss is 8-3 at home. Florida is 1-2 on the road. 7 p.m. ET: Towson at DelawareThis matchup features two of the best teams in the Colonial Conference facing off. Towson (14-6 SU, 14-5-1 ATS) just saw their five-game winning streak come to an end, falling to UNC Wilmington 81-77 and losing outright as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Delaware (14-6 SU, 8-11 ATS) has won three straight and just edged Elon 80-77, although they failed to cover as 9-point home favorites. This line opened at a pick'em. Respected money has steamed the home team, pushing Delaware to a 2-point favorite. Delaware holds the edge on offense (76 PPG vs 72 PPG) and also shoots the ball better (48% vs 44%). Delaware also has value as a buy-low bad ATS team (8-11) against a sell-high good ATS team (14-5-1). Delaware is 7-0 at home this season. Ken Pom has Towson winning by 1-point (73-72). 7 p.m. ET: UNC Wilmington at NortheasternThese Colonial Conference rivals are trending in opposite directions. UNC Wilmington (11-5 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) is riding an 8-game win streak, most recently upsetting Towson 81-77 and winning outright as 9-point road dogs. On the other hand, Northeastern (6-12 SU, 6-11-1 ATS) has lost eight games in a row and just got crushed by Hofstra 72-50, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Northeastern listed as a 3-point home favorite. We've seen several shops juice up the 3 to -115, signaling wiseguys leaning UNC Wilmington plus the points and a possible fall from 3 down to 2.5. UNC Wilmington holds the edge offensively (69 PPG vs 64 PPG), defensively (allowing 67 PPG vs 70 PPG) and on the boards (36 RPG vs 32 RPG). UNC Wilmington is 5-0 in conference play. Northeastern is 0-7. UNC Wilmington is 5-3 on the road. Northeastern is 4-4 at home. Ken Pom has Northeastern winning by three points (67-64), but he has UNC Wilmington ranked higher (241 vs 251).
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Post by Makers on Jan 25, 2022 7:06:42 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Jan 25, 2022 7:07:30 GMT -5
Bengals at Chiefs (-7, 54.5) – It would appear that nobody wants to bet the under in the AFC Championship Game as the line has been on the rise and the bet percentages show extremely heavy action on the over. The Chiefs are taking a lot of the early money as well at -7, but books will be reluctant to move off of the key number.
49ers at Rams (-3.5, 46.5) – Money is a little more split on the NFC Championship Game, but the percentages still favor the Rams. The totals money is a little more split, but it seems we have seen some under money from sharp bettors at other books, maybe not DraftKings yet.
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Post by Makers on Jan 26, 2022 6:34:56 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Vanderbilt at South Carolina
This SEC showdown pits a pair of teams looking to move up in the conference standings. Vanderbilt (10-8 SU, 9-9 ATS) is just 1-4 over their last five games and just got rolled by Florida 61-42, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. On a similar note, South Carolina (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS) is just 2-4 over their last six games but is coming off a 83-66 win over Georgia, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with South Carolina listed as a 1-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the short chalk, pushing South Carolina up from -1 to -2. The Gamecocks hold the edge in shooting (43% vs 41%) and rebounding (40 RPG vs 35 RPG). South Carolina is 8-2 at home this season. Ken Pom has South Carolina winning 66-64. The Gamecocks are -130 on the moneyline.
8 p.m. ET: Iowa State at Oklahoma State
This Big 12 clash features two teams looking to bounce back from the losses. Iowa State (14-5 SU, 11-8 ATS) is ranked 23rd but just fell to TCU 59-44, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. Similarly, Oklahoma State (10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS) just lost to Texas 56-51, although they managed to cover as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and is rushing to the window to back trendy dog Iowa State. However, respected money is backing the contrarian favorite, steaming Oklahoma State up from -2.5 to -3.5. Some shops are even approaching 4. Oklahoma State has value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent, as well as a buy-low bad ATS team (7-11) against a sell-high good ATS team (11-8). Ken Pom has Oklahoma State winning 62-60. The Cowboys are -165 on the moneyline.
10:30 p.m. ET: San Diego State at Utah State
These Mountain West rivals are trending in opposite directions. San Diego State (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) is 6-1 over their last seven games and just crushed UNLV 80-55, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Utah State (10-9 SU, 9-9 ATS) has dropped four straight and just fell to Boise State 62-59, losing outright as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a short 1-point road favorite. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the hotter team and fading the colder one, steaming San Diego State up from -1 to -2. Some shops are hinting at a move to -2.5. San Diego State will lean on their defensive edge, only allowing 56 PPG while Utah State gives up 69 PPG. San Diego State is 3-1 in conference play. Utah State is 1-5. Ken Pom has San Diego State winning 64-63. He has San Diego State ranked 30th and Utah State 70th.
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Post by Makers on Jan 28, 2022 6:28:54 GMT -5
6 p.m. ET: Wyoming at Air Force
Wyoming (15-3 SU, 10-6-1 SU) just saw their six game winning streak come to an end, falling to Boise State 65-62 but covering as 5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Air Force (10-8 SU, 12-6 ATS) has won two of their last three games and just beat San Jose State 63-53, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Wyoming listed as an 8-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Wyoming, who has a far better record. However, we've seen this line remain frozen at 8 and even trend down to 7.5 at some shops, signaling liability on the home dog. Ken Pom has Wyoming winning by eight points (67-59). Air Force is 6-2 at home this season.
7 p.m. ET: Niagara at Siena
Both of these MAAC foes are looking to snap two-game losing skids. Niagara (8-10 SU, 10-8 ATS) just fell to Rider 70-67, losing outright as 7-point home favorites. Similarly, Siena (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS) just lost to Iona 74-57, failing to cover as 15-point road dogs. This line opened at either a pick'em or Siena listed as a 1-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the road team, flipping Niagara to a 1-point favorite. Some shops are inching to -1.5. Essentially, Niagara is receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Niagara is shooting 45% from the field. Siena shoots 42%. Ken Pom has Niagara winning by one point (63-62). He has Niagara ranked 225th and Siena 278th.
7 p.m. ET: Ohio at Buffalo
Ohio (15-3 SU, 8-10 ATS) is 10-1 over their last eleven games and just took down Northern Illinois 74-62, although they failed to cover as 18.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Buffalo (10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS) is 4-1 over their last five but just fell to Toledo 86-75, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is grabbing the points with trendy dog Ohio, yet the line has moved further toward contrarian favorite Buffalo (-3 to -4), signaling sharp money on the Bulls. Buffalo has the edge on offense, averaging 80 PPG compared to Ohio 74 PPG. Buffalo is also out rebounding Ohio on average 42 to 34. Ken Pom has Buffalo winning by three points (76-73). Buffalo is -165 on the moneyline.
7 p.m. ET: Fairfield at Rider
Fairfield (9-10 SU, 11-7 ATS) just ended a seven game losing streak, beating Marist 69-66, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Similarly, Rider (6-12 SU, 6-11 ATS) just snapped a four game losing skid with a 7-67 win over Niagara, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Fairfield listed as a 3-point road favorite. Wiseguys have grabbed the home dog plus the points, dropping the line from 3 to 2.5. Rider has buy-low value as a bad ATS team (6-11) against a sell-high good ATS team (11-7). Ken Pom has Fairfield winning by two points (67-65).
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Post by Makers on Jan 29, 2022 6:48:16 GMT -5
2:30 p.m. ET: Indiana at Maryland
Indiana (15-5 SU, 12-8 ATS) is 3-1 over their last four games and just beat down Penn State 74-57, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Maryland (11-9 SU, 8-12 ATS) has won two straight and just upset Rutgers 68-60, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Indiana listed as a short 1-point road favorite. Big money has leaned on the Hoosiers, diving Indiana up from -1 to -1.5. Indiana's edge lies in their shooting. The Hoosiers are shooting 48% from the field while Maryland is shooting 43%. Indiana is 6-4 in conference play. Maryland is 3-6. Ken Pom has Indiana winning by two points (68-66). He has Indiana ranked 32nd and Maryland 79th.
3 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech at Florida State
Virginia Tech (10-10 SU, 9-11 ATS) has dropped three straight games and just fell to Miami 78-75, losing outright as 5-point home favorites. Similarly, Florida State (13-6 SU, 8-11 ATS) just fell to Georgia Tech 75-61, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Florida State listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Respected money is laying the chalk as we've seen this line bump up from -2 to -2.5. Florida State's biggest advantage is on the boards. FSU is averaging 36 RPG compared to Virginia Tech's 32 RPG. Florida State is 6-3 in conference play. Virginia Tech is 2-7. The Seminoles are 8-1 at home this season. The Hokies are 3-5 on the road. Ken Pom has Florida State winning by two points (66-64). The Seminoles are -130 on the moneyline.
8 p.m. ET: Tennessee at Texas
Tennessee (14-5 SU, 11-8 ATS) has won three straight games. The Volunteers are ranked 18th and just beat Florida 78-71, although they failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas (15-5 SU, 9-11 ATS) has also won two straight. The Longhorns are unranked but just beat TCU 73-50, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Tennessee. However, this line has moved further toward Texas (-2.5 to -3.5). Texas has value as a "fishy" unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. Both teams are averaging roughly 70 PPG. The difference comes on defense, where Texas is allowing 55 PPG and Tennessee 63 PPG. Texas is shooting 46% from the field compared to Tennessee's 44%. Texas is 12-1 at home. Tennessee is 2-3 on the road. Ken Pom has Texas winning by three points (64-61).
8 p.m. ET: Wake Forest at Syracuse
Wake Forest (17-4 SU, 12-8-1 ATS) is riding a four-game winning streak and just brushed aside Boston College 87-57, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Syracuse (9-11 SU, 9-11 ATS) has lost two straight and three of their last four. The Orange just fell to Pittsburgh 64-53, losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites. This line opened at a pick'em, Some shops opened Wake Forest listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering Wake Forest, who has a far better record. However, we've seen this line move to Syracuse -1 at home. This signals sharp reverse line movement backing the Orange. Syracuse is 7-3 at home this season. Ken Pom has Wake Forest winning by three points (78-75), so the market is far more bullish on Syracuse than Pom.
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Post by Makers on Jan 30, 2022 7:21:48 GMT -5
3 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City ChiefsThe Bengals (12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS) took down the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites and then upset the Titans 19-16 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) crushed the Steelers 42-21 in the Wild Card round, covering as 11.5-point home favorites, and then outlasted the Bills 42-36 in an overtime thriller, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Chiefs at home after their instant classic win over Buffalo. This lopsided betting has pushed Kansas City from -6.5 to -7. Some shops briefly reached 7.5 and got hit with Bengals hook money, dropping the line back down to 7. The Chiefs will be a popular teaser play (-7 to -1), which goes through the key number of 3. At this point, the Bengals offer buy-low value as a road contrarian dog with an inflated line, especially if you can pick out a book hanging + 7.5. There's some familiarity here, with the Bengals upsetting the Chiefs 34-31 in Week 17, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. Cincinnati also has a rest advantage, playing on Saturday afternoon while the Chiefs played Sunday night. Sharps have also hit this over, steaming the total from 53.5 to 54.5. Some books opened as low as 50.5 and immediately adjusted upward. The forecast calls for low 40s with mild 5 MPH winds and clear skies, perfect weather for football. Kansas City is 7-0 to the over their last seven games. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, has historically leaned toward road teams (55.4% ATS) and unders (59.1%). 6:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles RamsThe 49ers (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) have won outright as road dog in both postseason games thus far, upsetting Dallas 23-17 as 3.5-point dogs and then shocking the Packers 13-10 as 6-point dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) beat the Cardinals 34-11 in their playoff opener, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites, and then upset the defending champion Bucs 30-27 as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Rams on a short number at home. However, all the juice is leaning on the 49ers (+ 3.5 at -115 or -120). This signals liability on San Francisco plus the hook, along with a possible fall down from 3.5 to 3. Playoff divisional dogs are 8-6 ATS (57%) over the past decade. Kyle Shanahan is 27-18 ATS (60%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy G is 15-4 ATS (79%) as a dog. The 49ers are 2-0 against the Rams this season, winning 31-10 in Week 10 and 27-24 in Week 18. The 49ers have a rest advantage, playing on Saturday while the Rams played on Sunday. We could be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total has been bet down from 47 to 45.5 despite a majority of public bettors taking the over. When the total falls at least a half-point in the playoffs, the under is 35-30 (54%) over the past decade. Carl Cheffers, the lead red, has trended slightly to road teams (51.2% ATS) and overs (50.2%) in his career.
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Post by Makers on Feb 1, 2022 7:06:20 GMT -5
Los Angeles Rams vs Cincinnati BengalsThe Super Bowl will be played at SoFI Stadium, home of the Rams, although Los Angeles is ironically designated as the "road" team for this game. The Rams (15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 win over the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, failing to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. Previously in the postseason, the Rams dominated the Cardinals in the Wild Card round 34-11, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites and then took down the Bucs 30-27 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS) are coming off a pair of thrilling postseason upsets, shocking the Chiefs 27-24 as 7.5-point dogs in the AFC Championship game and beating the Titans 19-16 in the Divisional round as 4-point road dogs. In the Wild Card round, Cincinnati edged Vegas 26-19, covering as 6-point home favorites.This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Early money has laid the points with the Rams, driving the line up to 4 or even 4.5 at some shops. At BetMGM, the Rams are receiving 58% of bets and 67% of money. Super Bowl teams with line movement in their favor are 11-5 ATS (69%) since 2004. At this point, the Bengals offer value as a contrarian dog with an inflated line in the most heavily bet game of the year. With Super Bowl ticket counts skyrocketing, the public lean toward Los Angeles creates buy-low value to back the unpopular dog. Joe Burrow is 12-7 ATS (63%) in his career as a dog. The Bengals are 6-3 ATS as a dog this season, including 5-0 ATS when getting three points or more. Super Bowl dogs are 9-5 ATS since 2008. If they're getting 3-points or more, they improve to 8-2 ATS. The Bengals are also in an ideal teaser spot (+4.5 to +10.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. We've also seen wiseguys target the under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48.5. This signaled a classic reverse line move to the under as the total fell despite a majority of early bets (53%) taking the over. Super Bowl unders are 3-0 the past three seasons. Unders are 8-4 so far this postseason. When the total falls, the under is 57% over the past decade in the playoffs. The Bengals are 3-0 to the under this postseason. The Rams are 2-1 to the under. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in tempo and plays per game. Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM Matthew Stafford +115 Joe Burrow +210 Cooper Kupp +600 Ja'Marr Chase, Aaron Donald +1600 Joe Miscon, OBJ +2500 Cam Akers +3000 Tee Higgins, Von Miller +5000
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Post by Makers on Feb 2, 2022 6:59:22 GMT -5
9 p.m. ET: Wisconsin at Illinois
This Big Ten showdown features a pair of ranked teams facing off. Wisconsin (17-3 SU, 12-8 ATS) is ranked 11th and just beat Minnesota 66-60, although the Badgers failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Illinois (15-5 SU, 9-11 ATS) is ranked 18th and just edged Northwestern 59-56, also failing to cover as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Illinois listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Wisconsin. However, this line has moved further toward Illinois (-6.5 to -7), signaling wiseguy money laying the points with the home favorite. Illinois will lean on their superior shooting (48% vs 42%) and rebounding (41 RPG vs 36 RPG). Ken Pom has Illinois winning by six points (72-66). He has Illinois ranked 16th and Wisconsin 25th.
9 p.m. ET: Syracuse at NC State
Both of these ACC foes are looking to get back to .500. Syracuse (10-11 SU, 10-11 ATS) is coming off a 94-72 win over Wake Forest, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, NC State (10-12 SU, 6-16 ATS) is just 3-10 over their last 13 games and just fell to North Carolina 100-80, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with NC State listed as a short 2-point home favorite. The public is leaning slightly on the home favorite, yet we've seen this line fall from 2 to 1.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on road dog Syracuse plus the points. Syracuse holds the edge in shooting (45% vs 43%). Ken Pom has NC State winning by 1-point (79-78). He has Syracuse ranked 79th and NC State 108th.
9 p.m. ET: Dayton at VCU
This game features two of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 facing off. Dayton (14-7 SU, 10-11 ATS) has won two straight and just edged Rhode Island 53-51, although the Flyers failed to cover as 6-point home favorites. Similarly, VCU (13-6 SU, 13-6 ATS) has won three straight and just upset Richmond 64-62, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with VCU listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 4.5 to 4, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the road dog. Dayton's biggest advantage is offensively, specifically points per game (68 vs 64) and shooting (47% vs 44%). Ken Pom has VCU winning by four points (59-55). He has Dayton ranked 76th and VCU 68th.
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Post by Makers on Feb 3, 2022 6:33:55 GMT -5
8 p.m. ET: Iowa at Ohio State
This Big Ten showdown features two teams looking to bounce back from losses. Iowa (14-7 SU, 12-9 ATS) has dropped two straight and just fell to Penn State 90-86, losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Ohio State (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) is ranked 15th and just fell to Purdue 81-78, although the Buckeyes covered as 9-point road dogs. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 4-point home favorite. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They've laid the points with the better team at home, driving the Buckeyes from -4 to -5. Ohio State has the edge in shooting (48% vs 45%). Ohio State is a perfect 9-0 at home this season. Iowa is 2-5 on the road. The Buckeyes are 6-3 in conference play. Iowa is 4-6. Ken Pom has Ohio State winning by four points (80-76). He has Ohio State ranked 21st and Iowa 22nd.
8 p.m. ET: Marshall at Old Dominion
Both of these teams just snapped prolonged losing streaks. Marshall (8-13 SU, 5-14-1 ATS) had dropped ten straight games before beating UAB 84-81 their time last out, winning outright as 10.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Old Dominion (8-12 SU, 8-11 ATS) just snapped a four game skid with a 68-52 win over Charlotte, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Old Dominion listed as a 4-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the home team, steaming Old Dominion up from -4 to -4.5. Old Dominion's edge comes on defense, allowing just 67 PPG compared to Marshall allowing 77 PPG. Old Dominion is 3-4 in conference play and 5-3 at home. Marshall is 1-7 in conference play and 1-7 on the road. Ken Pom has Old Dominion winning by five points (75-70). He has Marshall ranked 220th and Old Dominion 199th.
10 p.m. ET: Pepperdine at Pacific
The public isn't much interested in this late night WCC matchup between cellar dwellers. But wiseguys have taken a position. Pepperdine (6-17 SU, 8-14 ATS) has lost eight straight games and just fell to Saint Mary's 81-57, failing to cover as 20-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Pacific (6-14 SU, 3-15 ATS) is also just 1-8 over their last nine games and just fell to Santa Clara 81-59, failing to cover as 12-point road favorites. This line opened with Pacific listed as a short 3-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Pacific, driving the line up from -3 to -3.5. Both teams are averaging roughly 66 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where Pepperdine is giving up 76 PPG and Pacific only 70 PPG. Pacific is 1-5 in conference play and 5-5 at home. Pepperdine is 0-8 in conference play and 0-9 on the road. Ken Pom has Pacific winning by five points (70-65). He has Pacific ranked 264th and Pepperdine 286th.
10 p.m. ET: Northern Arizona at Sacramento State
Both of these Big Sky rivals are looking to snap losing skids. Northern Arizona (7-13 SU, 7-11 ATS) is 3-8 over their last 11 games and just fell to Southern Utah 78-66, failing to cover as 13-point road dogs. Similarly, Sacramento State (6-11 SU, 6-10 ATS) is 2-6 over their last 8 games and just got beat by Weber State 79-59, failing to cover as 10.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Sacramento State listed as a short 2-point home favorite. We've seen this line rise from -2 to -2.5 and some shops are even reaching -3. This signals sharp action backing the home favorite. Sacramento State is 4-5 at home. Northern Arizona is 1-6 on the road. Ken Pom has Sacramento State winning by four points (69-65). He has Sacramento State ranked 317th and Northern Arizona 330th.
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Post by Makers on Feb 4, 2022 6:28:59 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Creighton at Seton Hall
Creighton (13-7 SU, 10-10 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a big 59-55 win over Connecticut, winning outright as 10.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Seton Hall (13-7 SU, 9-10-1 ATS) also snapped a two-game skid with a 70-63 win over Georgetown, pushing a 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Seton Hall listed as a 7-point home favorite. Respected money is grabbing road dog Creighton plus the points, dropping the line from 7 to 6.5. Some shops are hinting at a further dip down to 6. Creighton will lean on their superior shooting (46% vs 42%). Ken Pom has Seton Hall winning by four points (70-66), which means Creighton at the current number has value.
7 p.m. ET: Harvard at Brown
Harvard (10-7 SU, 5-10 ATS) has dropped two straight games, most recently falling to Pennsylvania 78-74 and losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Brown (10-12 SU, 11-9 ATS) is 2-8 over their last ten games and just fell to Cornell 74-72, losing outright as 5-point home favorites. This line opened with Brown listed as a 4-point home favorite. We've seen the Brown -4 get juiced up to -115, signaling some liability on the home favorite and a possible move up to -4.5. Ken Pom has Brown winning by six points (72-66). He has Brown ranked 178th and Harvard 220th.
9 p.m. ET: San Diego State at Colorado State
San Diego State (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) is coming off a 72-47 win over New Mexico, easily covering as 14.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Colorado State (16-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) has dropped two straight and just fell to Wyoming 84-78, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Colorado State listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the home team, steaming Colorado State up from -2.5 to -3. Colorado State has a big edge offensively (78 PPG vs 65 PPG) and field goal percentage (50% vs 43%). Colorado State is 10-1 at home. San Diego State is 1-3 on the road. Ken Pom has Colorado State winning by two points (66-64). The Rams are -135 on the moneyline. We've also seen some over money show up here, driving the total up from 128.5 to 131.
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