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Post by Makers on Feb 21, 2022 6:38:01 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Penn State at Maryland
Both of these Big Ten rivals are coming off wins and looking to claw back to .500. Penn State (11-12 SU, 13-10 ATS) has won two straight games and just beat Minnesota 67-46, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Maryland (12-14 SU, 11-15 ATS) just snapped a five game losing skid with a 90-74 win over Nebraska, covering as 2-point road favorites. This line opened with Maryland listed as a 3-point home favorite. We've seen the Penn State 3 get juiced up to -115 or -120, signaling wiseguys grabbing the points with the road dog. Some shops are even down to 2.5. Ken Pom has Maryland winning by two points (65-53), providing actionable value to Penn State at the current number. Ken Pom has Penn State ranked higher than Maryland (81st vs 89th). Sharps have also hit this under, dropping the total from 130 to 129. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with Penn State 14-9 and Maryland 14-12 to the under. The under is 10-5 in Maryland home games this season.
9 p.m. ET: Alabama State at Bethune Cookman
The public is largely overlooking this SWAC matchup between cellar dwellers. But not the sharps. Alabama State (7-20 SU, 16-10 ATS) has dropped four straight games and just fell to Florida A&M 86-83, covering as 5-point dogs. Similarly, Bethune Cookman (7-19 SU, 11-13-1 ATS) has dropped two in a row and just fell to Alabama A&M 62-60, losing outright as 4-point home favorites. This line opened with Bethune Cookman listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. This is an added game or extra game, which means it isn't very popular with the public. However, this line has fallen from 2.5 to 2 or even 1.5 at some shops, indicating pro money grabbing the points with road dog Alabama State. Ken Pom has Bethune Cookman winning by one point (68-67), which means the hook at the current number could prove critical. Pro money has also leaned over, raising the total from 133.5 to 134.5. Alabama State is 4-1 to the over their last five games. Bethune Cookman is 4-0 to the over their last four games.
10 p.m. ET: New Mexico State at Seattle
This late night WAC clash features the two best teams in the conference facing off. New Mexico State (22-4 SU, 13-10 ATS) has won two straight and just took down Grand Canyon 82-66, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Seattle (21-6 SU, 15-9-1 ATS) has won four straight and just took down California Baptist 67-64, although they failed to cover as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with New Mexico State listed as a short 2-point road favorite. Sharps are grabbing the dog, which has dropped the line from 2 to 1.5 at most shops. Ken Pom has Seattle winning the game outright (71-70), which provides heightened contrarian buy-low value on Seattle plus the points. Seattle is 16-1 at home this season. Pros also seem to be leaning on the over, as the total has been steamed up from 140.5 to 141.
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Post by Makers on Feb 22, 2022 6:33:18 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Charleston at Northeastern
Both of these Colonial Athletic Conference rivals are looking to get back on track and snap losing skids. Charleston (14-12 SU, 12-13-1 ATS) has dropped two straight and just fell to Towson 80-77, pushing as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, Northeastern (7-19 SU, 8-17-1 ATS) has lost three straight and is just 1-15 over their last 16 games. Northeastern just lost to Hofstra 76-73, covering as 11.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Northeastern listed as a 1-point home favorite. Sharp money isn't outsmarting itself on this one. Wiseguys are fading Northeastern and backing Charleston, flipping the Cougars from a 1-point dog to a 1-point favorite. Charleston holds a big edge on offense (77 PPG vs 65 PPG) and rebounding (41 RPG vs 32 RPG). Ken Pom has Charleston winning by two points (73-71). He has Charleston ranked 175th and Northeastern 261st
8 p.m. ET: Villanova at Connecticut
This primetime showdown features two ranked heavyweights battling for Big East supremacy. Villanova (21-6 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) is ranked 8th and has won five straight, most recently beating Georgetown 74-66 but failing to cover as 19.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Connecticut (19-7 SU, 12-14 ATS) is ranked 21st and has won three straight, most recently beating Xavier 72-61 and covering as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're loading up on trendy dog Villanova, who is ranked higher. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line move further to Connecticut (-1 to -2), signaling respected money laying the chalk with the contrarian home favorite Huskies. When two ranked teams face off this season, the favorite is roughly 57% ATS). UConn holds an advantage on the glass (42 RPG vs 35 RPG). UConn is 12-2 at home this season. Ken Pom has Connecticut winning this game by one point (68-67). UConn is -130 on the moneyline.
11 p.m. ET: UNLV at Nevada
This late night Mountain West clash includes a pair of teams riding winning streaks. UNLV (16-11 SU, 12-14 ATS) has won two straight and just upset Colorado State 72-51, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Nevada (12-13 SU, 8-16 ATS) has won three straight and just crushed San Jose State 90-60, easily covering as 8-point road favorites. This line opened with UNLV listed as a short 1-point road favorite. Wiseguys have jumped on the home team, flipping Nevada from a 1-point dog to a 2-point home favorite. Nevada holds the edge in shooting (45% vs 43%). This is a revenge game for Nevada, who lost to UNLV 69-58 on February 1st. Ken Pom has UNLV winning by one point (75-74), so that means the market is more bullish on Nevada tonight than the advanced analytics.
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Post by Makers on Feb 23, 2022 6:18:55 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Xavier at Providence
These Big East rivals are trending in opposite directions. Xavier (17-9 SU, 13-13 ATS) is 1-4 over their last five games and just fell to Connecticut 72-61, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Providence (22-3 SU, 14-11 ATS) is ranked 11th and just beat Butler 71-70, failing to cover as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Providence listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Sharp money isn't outsmarting itself on this one. Pros have laid the short chalk price, steaming Providence up from -1 to -2. Providence is 12-2 in conference play. Xavier is 7-8. Providence is 14-1 at home this season. Ken Pom has Providence winning by two points (71-69). Providence is -130 on the moneyline.
8 p.m. ET: Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State
This Sun Belt showdown is getting largely overlooked by the public. But wiseguys have taken notice. Coastal Carolina (14-12 SU, 11-11 ATS) is coming off a 73-63 win over Troy, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Arkansas State (16-9 SU, 12-9-1 ATS) just took down UT Arlington 58-49, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. This line opened with Arkansas State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We've seen the juice trend heavily toward Arkansas State (-2.5 at -115) and some shops have inched up to -3. Essentially all movement and liability has been toward Arkansas State. Arkansas State is 10-2 at home this season. Coastal Carolina is 2-5 on the road. Ken Pom has Arkansas State winning by two points (69-67).
9 p.m. ET: Cincinnati at Central Florida
These AAC rivals are jockeying for positions near the top of the conference standings. Cincinnati (17-10 SU, 10-15-1 ATS) has dropped three of their last four games and just fell to Temple 75-71, losing outright as 8-point home favorites. Conversely, Central Florida (16-9 SU, 10-15 ATS) has won three of their last four and just beat East Carolina 69-66, failing to cover as 9-point home favorites. This line opened with UCF listed as a short 3-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay short chalk with UCF at home, who has played much better as of late. However, we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5, signaling pro money grabbing the points with the road dog Bearcats. Ken Pom had UCF winning by two points (71-69), which provides some actionable value on Cincinnati plus the hook. Ken Pom has Cincinnati as the higher ranked team (93rd vs 101st).
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Post by Makers on Feb 24, 2022 6:56:34 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Cleveland State at Detroit..
The public is largely overlooking this Horizon League showdown. But pros have taken notice. Cleveland State (19-7 SU, 12-12 ATS) has won two straight games and just beat Green Bay 79-67, covering as 10-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Detroit (12-13 SU, 15-9 ATS) has also won two straight and just upset Wright State 8-75, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Cleveland State listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Right off the bat this line is fishy. If Cleveland State has the far superior record, why is the line so low, especially against a below .500 team? Wiseguys smell a rate and have grabbed the points with Detroit, dropping the line from 1.5 to 1. Detroit is a perfect 7-0 at home this season. Ken Pom has Detroit winning this game by one point (73-72), which provides actionable value on Detroit as a short home dog.
7 p.m. ET: Siena at Quinnipiac
Both of these MAAC rivals are looking to bounce back from losses. Siena (13-11 SU, 13-11 ATS) has lost two of their last three and just fell to Monmouth 71-59, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. On the other hand, Quinnipiac (12-12 SU, 10-13 ATS) is 1-5 over their last six games and just lost to Marist 67-66, covering as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Quinnipiac listed as a short 2-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the home team, driving Quinnipiac up from -2 to -2.5. Quinnipiac holds the edge on offense (73 PPG vs 66 PPG), shooting (44% vs 43%) and rebounding (35 RPG vs 33 RPG). Quinnipiac is 8-5 at home this season. Ken Pom has Quinnipiac winning by four points (73-69). He has Quinnipiac ranked higher as well (244th vs 248th).
9 p.m. ET: Cal Santa Barbara at UC Davis
This Big West Conference clash features a pair of teams playing their best basketball at the right time. Santa Barbara (12-10 SU, 7-13 ATS) is 4-1 over their last five games and just beat Long Beach State 84-71, easily covering as 5.5-point home favorites. Similarly, UC Davis (11-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) has won three straight and just took down Cal Bakersfield 81-79, failing to cover as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with Santa Barbara listed as a short 1-point road favorite. Sharps have laid the short chalk with Santa Barbara driving the line from -1 to -2. Santa Barbara holds a distinct advantage in shooting (49% vs 45%). Ken Pom has Santa Barbara winning by two points (70-68). He has Santa Barbara ranked much higher (140th vs 223rd). Santa Barbara is -130 on the moneyline.
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Post by Makers on Feb 25, 2022 7:32:24 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Northwestern at Penn State
Both of these Big Ten rivals are looking to finish their regular seasons on a high note. Northwestern (13-13 SU, 12-12-1 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 77-65 win over Nebraska, covering as 11-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Penn State (11-13 SU, 13-11 ATS) just saw their two-game win streak end with a 67-61 loss to Maryland, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Penn State listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk with Penn State, driving the Nittany Lions up from -1.5 to -2. Penn State is 9-4 at home this season. Northwestern is 3-6 on the road. Ken Pom has Penn State winning by three points (65-62). Penn State beat Northwestern 74-70 back on January 5th.
7 p.m. ET: Niagara at Rider
This MAAC matchup is being largely overlooked by the betting public. But wiseguys seem to have taken a position. Niagara (12-13 SU, 14-11 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 65-54 win over Canisius, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Rider (10-16 SU, 11-14 ATS) is mired in a three-game losing skid and just fell to Manhattan 84-78, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Rider listed as a short 1-point home favorite. We've seen this line inch toward -1.5 at most shops, signaling respected money laying the points with Rider at home. Rider holds an edge on the boards (38 RPG vs 33 RPG). Niagara is 5-8 on the road this season. Rider is 5-5 at home. Ken Pom has Rider winning by tone point (65-64). Rider beat Niagara 70-67 back on January 23rd.
7 p.m. ET: Saint Louis at Richmond
This Atlantic 10 showdown features two of the top teams in the conference battling for supremacy. Saint Louis (19-9 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) is coming off a 72-61 win over St Joseph's, pushing as 11-point home favorites. Similarly, Richmond (18-10 SU, 13-14-1 ATS) just took down George Washington 84-71, covering as 7-point home road favorites. This line opened with Richmond listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is grabbing the points with trendy dog Saint Louis due to their slightly better win-loss record. However, despite this lopsided betting action we've seen the line move further toward Richmond (-2.5 to -3), signaling pro money laying the chalk with the home favorite. Richmond is 10-3 at home this season. Saint Louis is 4-5 on the road. Ken Pom has Richmond winning by one point (74-73), which means the market is more bullish on the home team than the advanced analytics. Richmond is -150 on the moneyline. This is a revenge spot for Richmond, who lost to Saint Louis 76-69 back on January 2nd.
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Post by Makers on Feb 26, 2022 7:45:44 GMT -5
6 p.m. ET: Wisconsin at Rutgers
These Big 10 rivals are trending in opposite directions. Wisconsin (22-5 SU, 15-12 ATS) is ranked 13th , has won three straight and just squeaked by Minnesota 68-67, failing to cover as 5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Rutgers (16-11 SU, 13-14 ATS) is unranked, has lost two straight and just fell to Michigan 71-62, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Rutgers listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Rutgers favored if they're unranked and have a far worse win-loss record? The public is hammering Wisconsin plus the points, yet the line has moved further toward Rutgers (-1.5 to -2.5). This indicates pro bettors buying low on Rutgers as a fishy "unranked favorite vs a ranked opponent" play. Rutgers is 13-2 at home this season. Ken Pom has Wisconsin winning by one point (67-66), which means the market is more bullish on Rutgers than the advanced analytics. Rutgers beat Wisconsin 73-65 on February 12th.
8 p.m. ET: Kansas at Baylor
This primetime clash features a pair of highly ranked Big 12 rivals battling for the top spot in the conference. Kansas (23-4 SU, 13-14 ATS) is ranked 5th and is coming off a 102-83 win over Kansas State, easily covering as 12-point home favorites. Similarly, Baylor (23-5 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) is ranked 10th and just edged Oklahoma State 66-64 in overtime, failing to cover as 5-point home favorites. This line opened with Baylor listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Kansas. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen several books move further toward Baylor (-3 to -3.5). This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" action laying the chalk with contrarian favorite Baylor. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 41-28 ATS (59%) this season. Ken Pom has Baylor winning by four points (78-74). This is a revenge game for Baylor, who got rolled by Kansas 83-59 on February 5th.
10 p.m. ET: USC at Oregon
This PAC 12 grudge match is likely to be the most heavily bet late game of the night. USC (24-4 SU, 13-15 ATS) is ranked 16th, has won five straight and just outlasted Oregon State 94-91 in double overtime, failing to cover as 10.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Oregon (18-10 SU, 11-17 ATS) is unranked and just 2-3 over their last five games, although the Ducks are coming off a big 68-63 win over UCLA, cashing outright as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Oregon listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is happy to grab the points with USC, who is ranked and has a far better record. However, pros have laid the chalk with Oregon, driving the Ducks up from -2 to -3.5. Ken Pom has Oregon winning by one point (72-71). The Ducks are -165 on the moneyline. These teams met back on January 15th and Oregon won 79-69.
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Post by Makers on Feb 27, 2022 6:21:41 GMT -5
12:30 p.m. ET: SMU at Houston
This early afternoon tip features the top two teams in the AAC going at it. SMU (20-6 SU, 14-12 ATS) is 4-1 over their last five games and just beat Tulsa 75-61, covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Houston (23-4 SU, 16-11 ATS) is ranked 14th, has won three straight and just edged Tulane 81-67, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public typically backs ranked teams over unranked teams but not this time. Casual bettors think this line is too high and have grabbed the points with trendy dog SMU. However, we've actually seen this line move further toward Houston (-10 to -10.5 or even -11 at some shops), signaling pro money laying the chalk. Houston is 13-1 at home this season. Ken Pom has Houston winning by 11-points (75-64). This is a revenge spot for Houston, who fell to SMU 85-83 on February 9th.
2 p.m. ET: Fairfield at Manhattan
This MAAC showdown may not be garnering much attention from the public. But pros have taken a position. Fairfield (12-16 SU, 14-13 ATS) has dropped three straight games and just fell to Iona 76-58, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Manhattan (14-12 SU, 12-12-1 ATS) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end with a 74-56 loss to Marist, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Manhattan listed as a 1-point home favorite. This line has either remained frozen at 1 or inched up to 1.5 at some shops, signaling liability on the home team. Manhattan holds the edge in scoring (72 PPG vs 69 PPG) and shooting (45% vs 44%). Manhattan is 7-3 at home this season. Fairfield is 7-7 on the road. Ken Pom has Manhattan winning by two points (71-69). Manhattan beat Fairfield 74-67 on February 16th. Pros have also leaned under in this game, dropping the total from 140 to 138.5.
3 p.m. ET: Tulane at Temple
Both of these AAC rivals are looking to bounce back from losses. Tulane (12-12 SU, 15-9 ATS) just fell to Houston 81-67, failing to cover as 9.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Temple (15-10 SU, 15-10 ATS) just lost to Memphis 78-64, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Temple listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. The -2.5 for Temple is juiced up to -115, signaling liability on the home team and a possible move from -2.5 to -3. Temple's biggest advantage comes in rebounding (39 RPG vs 32 RPG). Temple is 9-3 at home this season. Tulane is 3-6 on the road. Ken Pom has Temple winning by two points (70-68). This is a revenge spot for Temple, who lost to Tulane 92-83 back on February 12th.
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Post by Makers on Mar 2, 2022 6:38:01 GMT -5
6:30 p.m. ET: Xavier at St. John's
Both of these Big East foes are looking to snap losing skids and get back on track. Xavier (17-11 SU, 13-15 ATS) has lost four straight and just fell to Seton Hall 82-66, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, St. John's (15-13 SU, 13-14-1 ATS) has dropped two straight and just lost to DePaul 99-94, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with St. John's listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk with the Johnnies, steaming the Red Storm up from -1 to -2. St. John's holds the edge offensively (80 PPG vs 73 PPG). St. John's is 11-6 at home this season. Xavier is 4-5 on the road. Ken Pom has St. John's winning by one point (78-77). These teams met back on February 16th and St. John's won 86-73
7 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at Iowa State
These Big 12 rivals are trending in opposite directions. Oklahoma State (13-15 SU, 10-18 ATS) has lost three of their last four games and just fell to Oklahoma 66-62, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Iowa State (20-9 SU, 16-13 ATS) has won four straight and just edged Kansas State 74-73, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 3-point home favorite. Pros have laid the chalk, pushing the Cyclones up from -3 to -3.5. Some shops are even moving to -4. Iowa State has the edge defensively (63 PPG allowed vs 67 PPG allowed). Iowa State is 14-4 at home this season. Oklahoma State is 2-8 on the road. Ken Pom has Iowa State winning by four points (65-61). Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 84-81 back on January 26th.
9 p.m. ET: Wichita State at Tulsa
Both of these AAC opponents have struggled as of late. Wichita State (13-12 SU, 10-15 ATS) has lost three straight and just got blown out by Memphis 81-57, failing to cover as 8.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Tulsa (9-18 SU, 12-15 ATS) has dropped two straight and just fell to East Carolina 64-59, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Wichita State listed as a short 2-point road favorite. Wiseguys have backed the Shockers, steaming Wichita up from -2 to -2.5. Some shops are even inching higher to -3. Wichita State has an edge on the boards (37 RPG vs 32 RPG). Ken Pom has Wichita State winning by three points (69-66). He has Wichita State ranked 93rd and Tulsa 165th. Wichita State beat Tulsa 58-48 on February 1st.
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Post by Makers on Mar 3, 2022 7:05:04 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Indiana State vs Illinois State
This is the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Indiana State (11-19 SU, 12-14-2 ATS) has lost five straight games. Meanwhile, Illinois State (12-19 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) just snapped a five-game losing streak of their own with a 86-66 win over Indiana State, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Illinois State listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. Respected money is laying the chalk with Illinois State, driving the line up from -1 to -1.5. Illinois State holds the edge offensively (75 PPG vs 71 PPG) and in the shooting department (46% vs 44%). Ken Pom has Illinois State winning by three points (76-73). He has Illinois State ranked 185th and Indiana State 230th.
7 p.m ET: Marist at Canisius
This MAAC showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. Marist (14-13 SU, 14-13 ATS) has won six straight games and just crushed Manhattan 74-56, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Canisius (9-20 SU, 14-15 ATS) is just 2-8 over their last ten games but is coming off a 72-67 win over Quinnipiac, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Marist listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Respected money is riding the hot hand at a short price, steaming Marist up from -1.5 to -2. Marist holds the edge in shooting (44% vs 40%) and on defense (67 PPG allowed vs 72 PPG allowed. Ken Pom has Marist winning by three points (70-67). He has Marist ranked much higher (168th vs 270th). These teams met back on February 12th and Marist won 71-70.
7 p.m. ET: Army at Lehigh
Both of these Patriot League rivals are riding two-game win streaks. Army (15-15 SU, 15-11-2 ATS) just beat Holy Cross 66-58, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Similarly, Lehigh (12-18 SU, 15-14 ATS) just took down Lafayette 78-58, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This game opened at a pick'em. We've seen the line inch up to Lehigh -1, signaling pro money backing the home team. This is a "added or extra game," with an ID number of 306199-306200. Line moves on added games are especially significant because the public largely overlooks these small obscure games, which means moves are driven almost exclusively by respected money. Ken Pom has Lehigh winning by two points (73-71). Lehigh is 8-7 at home this season. Army is just 4-11 on the road.
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Post by Makers on Mar 4, 2022 8:13:52 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: North Carolina A&T vs Longwood
This early tip is the Quarterfinal of the Big South Conference Tournament. North Carolina A&T (12-19 SU, 15-14 ATS) edged Radford 78-71 in the first round, covering as 1.5-point favorites in overtime. On the flip side, Longwood (23-6 SU, 17-9 ATS) has won five straight games and received a bye in the first round. This line opened with Longwood listed as a 7-point. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better team with the rest advantage, steaming Longwood up from -7 to -8. Longwood holds the edge on offense (76 PPG vs 68 PPG) and in the shooting department (45% vs 42%). North Carolina A&T is 6-10 in conference play this season. Longwood is 15-1. Ken Pom has Longwood winning by seven points (74-67). He has Longwood ranked 154th and North Carolina A&T ranked 292nd. This is a revenge game for Longwood, who fell to North Carolina A&T 70-62 back on February 12th. Smart money has also hit this under, dropping the total from 138.5 to 136.5
5 p.m. ET: Citadel vs East Tennessee State
This is the first round of the Southern Conference Tournament. Both teams struggled down the stretch. Citadel (12-17 SU, 10-16-1 ATS) went just 3-7 over their last ten games, most recently getting blown out by Furman 94-59 and failing to cover as 9-point home favorites. Similarly, East Tennessee State (15-16 SU, 13-17 ATS) went 3-8 over their last 11-games, although they finished the regular season with a 73-69 win over UNC Greensboro, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with East Tennessee State listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. Pros have laid the points, steaming East Tennessee State up from -4.5 to -5.5. Ken Pom has East Tennessee State winning by five points (79-74). He has East Tennessee State ranked much higher (174th vs 251st). East Tennessee State beat Citadel 77-67 on February 19th. Pros are also leaning under here, dropping the total slightly from 152.5 to 151.5.
6 p.m. ET: Buffalo at Kent State
This MAC showdown features two of the hottest teams in the conference facing off in their regular season finales. Buffalo (19-9 SU, 12-16 ATS) just saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end with a 92-76 loss to Toledo, losing outright as a 1.5-point home favorite. Similarly, Kent State (20-9 SU, 14-11-2 ATS) has won 11-straight games and just took down Northern Illinois 63-55, pushing as 8-point road favorites. This line opened with Kent State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have laid the short chalk, driving Kent State up from -1.5 to -2. Kent State holds the edge defensively (64 PPG allowed by 72 PPG allowed). Ken Pom has Kent State winning by two points (73-71). The Golden Flashes are -135 on the moneyline. This is a revenge game for Kent State, who lost to Buffalo 64-51 back on January 21st.
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Post by Makers on Mar 5, 2022 7:22:44 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Miami at Syracuse
This ACC showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. Miami (21-9 SU, 16-14 ATS) is 5-2 over their last seven games and just took down Boston College 81-70, covering as 4-point road favorites. On the flip side, Syracuse (15-15 SU, 14-16 ATS) is riding a three-game losing streak and just fell to North Carolina 88-79 in overtime, failing to cover as 8.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Syracuse listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Miami has a far better won-loss record and is playing much better recently, then why is Syracuse the favorite? Something feels fishy here. The public is rushing to the window to back Miami, yet we've seen Syracuse move from -1 to -1.5 or even -2 at some shops. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the home favorite. Syracuse has an advantage on the boards (36 RPG by 30 RPG). Syracuse is 11-4 at home this season. Ken Pom has Syracuse winning by one point (80-79). This is a revenge spot for Syracuse, who lost to Miami 88-87 on January 5th.
2 p.m. ET: TCU at West Virginia **Tim?
This is the regular season finale for both Big 12 opponents. TCU (19-10 SU, 17-9-3 ATS) went 4-6 down the stretch and just fell to Kansas 72-68, covering as 12-point road dogs. Meanwhile, West Virginia (14-16 SU, 12-18 ATS) has dropped seven straight games and just fell to Oklahoma 72-59, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with West Virginia listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to back the dog and fade slumping West Virginia. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move further toward the Mountaineers (-1.5 to -2.5). This signals respected money laying the points with contrarian favorite West Virginia and fading trendy dog TCU. West Virginia is 11-5 at home this season. TCU is 4-5 on the road. Ken Pom has West Virginia winning by one point (68-67). The Mountaineers are -140 on the moneyline. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 138 to 136.5. This is a revenge game for West Virginia, who lost to TCU 77-67 back on February 21st.
4 p.m. ET: Oklahoma at Kansas State
These Big 12 rivals are trending in opposite directions. Oklahoma (16-14 SU, 14-16 ATS) has won two straight and just beat West Virginia 72-59, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Kansas State (14-15 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) has dropped four straight games and just fell to Texas Texas 73-68 but covered as 13-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas State listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're backing trendy dog Oklahoma. However, this line has moved from Kansas State -1 to -2.5, signaling pro money buying low on the home team and laying the chalk. Kansas State is 9-6 at home this season. Oklahoma is 2-8 on the road. Ken Pom has Kansas State winning by two points (68-66). This is a revenge play for Kansas State, who lost to Oklahoma 71-69 on January 1st.
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Post by Makers on Mar 6, 2022 6:43:37 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Houston at Memphis
This AAC heavyweight clash marks the regular season finale for both teams. Houston (26-4 SU, 19-11 ATS) is ranked 14th, has won six straight and just crushed Temple 84-46, easily covering as 16.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Memphis (18-9 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) is unranked, has won three straight and just beat South Florida 73-64 but failed to cover as 13-point road favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a short 2-point road favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Houston, driving the Cougars up from -2 to -2.5 at several shops. Ken Pom has Houston winning by four points (73-69). He has Houston ranked 5th and Memphis 36th. This is a revenge game for Houston, who lost to Memphis 69-59 back on February 12th. Sharps have also leaned on the under here, dropping the total from 140 to 139.
12:30 p.m. ET: Michigan at Ohio State
These Big Ten rivals are trending in opposite directions down the stretch. Michigan (16-13 SU, 12-17 ATS) is unranked, has gone 2-3 over their last five games and just fell to Iowa 82-71, losing outright as 2-point home favorites. On the other hand, Ohio State (19-9 SU, 15-13 ATS) is ranked 23rd, has gone 3-2 over their last five and just beat Michigan State 80-69, covering as 5-point home favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 4-point home favorite. We've seen the Buckeyes -4 get juiced up to -115 or -120, signaling liability on Ohio State with a possible move from -4 to -4.5. Ken Pom has Ohio State winning by four points (75-71). Ohio State is 13-2 at home this season. Michigan is just 4-7 on the road. Ohio State beat Michigan 68-57 on February 12th.
2:30 p.m. ET: Delaware vs Drexel
This is the Quarterfinals of the CAA Conference Tournament. Delaware (19-11 SU, 12-17 ATS) is the 5-seed and has lost three straight games, most recently falling to Towson 69-57. On the other hand, Drexel (15-13 SU, 16-11 ATS) is the 4-seed and has won three of their last four games, including a 80-79 win over Charleston their last time out. This game opened at a true pick'em on a neutral court. Sharps seem to be leaning Drexel as several shops have moved from a pick'em to Drexel -1. Ken Pom has Drexel winning by one point (74-73). He has Drexel ranked 148th and Delaware 165th. Drexel beat Delaware 76-68 on February 3rd. Pros have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 143.5 to 142.5.
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Post by Makers on Mar 7, 2022 6:23:50 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Wright State vs Cleveland State
This is the Horizon League conference tournament semifinals. Wright State (19-13 SU, 13-18 ATS) has won three straight games and just beat Oakland 75-63, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Cleveland State (20-9 SU, 13-14 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 83-67 win over Robert Morris, covering as 12-point home favorites. This line opened at a pick'em on neutral court, which means the oddsmakers view these two teams as virtual equals. We've seen the line move to Cleveland State -1, signaling respected money leaning with the Vikings. Cleveland State holds the edge in shooting (48% vs 46%) and assists (17 APG vs 14 APG). Ken Pom has Wright State winning by one point (76-75), which is at odds with the line movement.
9:30 p.m. ET: Northern Kentucky vs Purdue Fort Wayne
This semifinal matchup in the Horizon League conference tournament features a pair of red-hot teams. Northern Kentucky (19-11) has won four straight games and just crushed Detroit 77-59. Meanwhile, Purdue Fort Wayne (21-10) has won ten straight games and just edged Chicago 78-72. This line opened with Northern Kentucky listed as a short 2-point neutral site favorite. We've seen this line remain frozen at 2 or even inching down to 1.5 at some shops, signaling liability on Purdue Fort Wayne getting a couple points. Purdue Fort Wayne is the far better shooting team (46% vs 43%). Ken Pom has Northern Kentucky winning by one point (78-77), which provides a slight actionable edge on Fort Wayne as the dog. Pros have steamed this under as well, dropping the total from 137 to 135.5.
11:30 p.m. ET: Santa Clara vs Saint Mary's
This late night clash represents the semifinals of the WCC tournament. Santa Clara (21-10 SU, 18-11-2 ATS) is riding a three-game winning streak and just crushed Portland 91-67, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Saint Mary's (24-6 SU, 18-9-2 ATS) is ranked 19th, has won four straight and just upset Gonzaga 67-57, winning outright as 10.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Saint Mary's listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, steaming Saint Mary's up from -4.5 to -5. Saint Mary's holds a distinct advantage defensively (59 PPG allowed vs 71 PPG allowed). Ken Pom has Saint Mary's winning by six points (73-67). He has Saint Mary's ranked 16th and Santa Clara 68th. We've also seen some under money hit this total, dropping the line from 141 to 138.5.
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Post by Makers on Mar 8, 2022 7:50:32 GMT -5
2 p.m. ET: Boston College vs Pittsburgh
This is the first round of the ACC Tournament. Boston College (11-19 SU, 14-16 ATS) ended the regular season with three straight losses, most recently falling to Georgia Tech 82-78 and failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Similarly, Pittsburgh (11-20 SU, 15-16 ATS) has lost four straight and just fell to Notre Dame 78-54, failing to cover as 12.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Boston College listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has sided with the Eagles as a "lesser of two evils play," pushing Boston College up from -1.5 to -2. Both teams are giving up roughly 68 PPG defensively. The difference comes on offense, where Boston College is outscoring Pittsburgh 66 PPG to 62 PPG. Ken Pom has Boston College winning by two points (65-63). Boston College is ranked 149th and Pittsburgh 193rd.
7 p.m. ET: Georgia Tech vs Louisville
This is the first round of the ACC Tournament. Georgia Tech (12-19 SU, 13-17-1 ATS) just snapped a four-game losing skid with a 82-78 win over Boston College, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Louisville (12-18 SU, 9-19-2 ATS) ended the regular season losing four straight, most recently falling to Virginia 71-61 and failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Louisville listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. The public is split, yet we've seen Louisville creep up from -1 to -1.5. This signals pro money laying the short chalk with Louisville. Ken Pom has Louisville winning by one point (67-66). He has Louisville ranked 145th and Georgia Tech 163rd. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 134 to 135. Louisville went 2-0 against Georgia Tech in the regular season, winning 67-64 and 74-58.
8 p.m. ET: Southern Miss vs UTSA
This is the first round of the Conference USA tournament. Southern Miss (6-25 SU, 12-17 ATS) has dropped 14 straight games and just fell to Charlotte 70-67 but covered as 8-point home dogs. Meanwhile, UTSA (10-21 SU, 14-14 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 82-71 win over Rice, cashing as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened with UTSA listed as a short 3-point home favorite. Pros are fading Southern Miss and laying the points with UTSA, pushing the line up from UTSA -3 to -3.5. UTSA holds a notable advantage on the boards (38 RPG vs 34 RPG). Ken Pom has UTSA winning by three points (71-68). He has UTSA ranked 311th and Southern Miss 340th. Pros have also leaned over, pushing the total up from 138.5 to 139. Southern Miss is 19-10 to the over this season, including 12-3 to the over on the road.
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Post by Makers on Mar 9, 2022 7:15:36 GMT -5
11:30 a.m. ET: Idaho vs Sacramento State
This early Big Sky first round matchup is the first game of the day. Idaho (9-21 SU, 18-10 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 78-69 win over Northern Arizona, covering as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Sacramento State (10-17 SU, 12-14 ATS) went 4-1 down the stretch and just beat Montana 72-71, winning outright as 9-point road dogs. This line opened with Sacramento State listed as a 1.5-point neutral court favorite. Sharps appear to be laying the chalk, as we've seen Sacramento State move from -1.5 to -2 at several shops. Sacramento State has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (12-14) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (18-10). Sacramento State also holds the edge defensively (70 PPG allowed vs 80 PPG allowed). Ken Pom has Sacramento State winning by one point (73-72). He has Sacramento State ranked 311th and Idaho 322nd.
9 p.m. ET: Old Dominion vs UTEP
This is the second round of the Conference USA tournament. Old Dominion (13-18 SU, 13-17 ATS) went 3-1 down the stretch and just beat Middle Tennessee State 68-64, covering as 2-point home favorites. Similarly, UTEP (18-12 SU, 14-14 ATS) finished the regular season with a pair of wins, most recently beating North Texas 70-68 and winning outright as 5-point home dogs. This line opened with UTEP listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has laid the points, driving UTEP from -1 to -2. Ken Pom has UTEP winning by one point (65-64). He has UTEP ranked 172nd and Old Dominion 189th. These teams played once earlier this season and UTEP won 78-70 on January 15th.
9:30 p.m. ET: Prairie View vs Alcorn State
This SWAC Tournament quarterfinal may not be garnering much public interest. But wiseguys have taken note. Prairie View (8-18 SU, 12-14 ATS) ended the regular season with three straight losses, most recently falling to Texas Southern 78-77 but covering as 7-point road dogs. On the flip side, Alcorn State (15-15 SU, 19-11 ATS) has won six straight games and just crushed Pine Bluff 100-77, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. This game opened at a pick'em on a neutral court, which means oddsmakers view these teams as virtual equals. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves. They're backing the better team who has played better as of late, steaming Alcorn State from a pick'em to a 1-point favorite. Alcorn State holds the edge defensively (71 PPG allowed by 77 PPG allowed). Ken Pom has Alcorn State winning by two points (73-71). He has Alcorn State ranked 257th and Prairie View 282nd.
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