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Post by Makers on Mar 10, 2022 6:20:39 GMT -5
11:30 a.m. ET: Indiana vs Michigan
This early afternoon tipoff is the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. It also features two teams trending in different directions. Indiana (18-12 SU, 16-14 ATS) went 2-7 down the stretch and just lost to Purdue 69-67 but covered as 10-point road dogs. On the flip side, Michigan (17-13 SU, 13-17 ATS) went 10-6 down the stretch and just upset Ohio State 75-69, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Michigan listed as a short 2-point neutral court favorite. We've seen respected money lay the chalk, steaming Michigan up from -2 to -3. Michigan has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (13-17) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (16-14). Ken Pom has Michigan winning by two points (70-68). He has Michigan ranked 29th and Indiana 44th. Michigan beat Indiana 80-62 back on January 23rd, the only matchup of the season between the two teams. Michigan is -150 on the moneyline.
1:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo vs Akron
This is the MAC Tournament quarterfinal. Buffalo (19-10 SU, 12-17 ATS) is riding a two-game losing streak and just fell to Kent State 70-65, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Akron (21-9 SU, 14-14 ATS) has won five straight games and finished off the regular season with a 57-56 win over Central Michigan, failing to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 2-point neutral court favorite. Right off the bat, the opening line speaks volumes. If Buffalo has lost two straight and Akron has won five straight, then why is Buffalo favored? Shouldn't it be the other way around? The public is grabbing the points with Akron yet we've seen some shops move hint at moving Buffalo from -2 to -2.5. This signals sharp money buying low on Buffalo. Ken Pom has Buffalo winning by one point (72-71). He has Buffalo ranked 125th and Akron 152nd. Buffalo holds a big edge on offense (80 PPG vs 71 PPG) and in the rebounding department (43 RPG vs 35 RPG). Buffalo is -130 on the moneyline. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo, who lost to Akron 88-75 on January 1st, the lone matchup this season.
6:30 p.m. ET: Maryland vs Michigan State
This is the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Maryland (15-16 SU, 14-17 ATS) went 4-2 over their last six games while Michigan State (20-11 SU, 15-16 ATS) went just 3-7 over their final ten regular season games. However, these teams just met in the regular season and Michigan State won 77-67, covering as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps must have liked what they saw out of Michigan State in the last game. They're backing the Spartans to beat the Terps once again, driving Michigan State up from -2.5 to -3. The Spartans hold an edge in shooting (46% vs 44%) and rebounding (37 RPG vs 35 RPG). Ken Pom has Michigan State winning by three points (73-70). He has Michigan State ranked 43rd and Maryland 84th. Michigan State is -150 on the moneyline.
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Post by Makers on Mar 11, 2022 6:58:48 GMT -5
11:30 a.m. ET: Indiana vs Illinois
This Big Ten Conference Tournament Quarterfinal is the first game of the day. Indiana (19-12 SU, 17-14 ATS) just upset Michigan 74-69 yesterday, winning outright as 3-point dogs. Meanwhile, Illinois (22-8 SU, 13-17 ATS) is ranked 16th and making their conference tournament debut after receiving a bye. This line opened with Illinois listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to think that the opening line was a bit low, steaming Illinois up from -3.5 to -5. Illinois holds the edge on offense (76 PPG vs 71 PPG) and in the rebounding department (39 RPG vs 36 RPG). Illinois is 15-5 in conference play while Indiana is 9-11. Ken Pom has Illinois winning this game by four points (70-66). He has Illinois ranked 16th and Indiana 43rd. Illinois crushed Indiana 74-57 back on February 5th, the lone matchup between the two teams this season. Illinois has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (13-17) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (17-14). Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 137.5 to 136.5.
6:30 p.m. ET: Creighton vs Providence
This is the Big East semifinals. Both teams played yesterday, Creighton (21-10 SU, 15-14-2 ATS) is unranked and just upset Marquette 74-63, winning outright as 3-point dogs. On the flip side, Providence (25-4 SU, 17-12 ATS) is ranked 11th and just edged Butler 65-61 but failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. This line opened with Providence listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is happy to lay the short number with Providence, who has a far better record and ranking. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 3.5 to 3, signaling pro money grabbing Creighton plus the points. Ken Pom has Providence winning by two points (67-65), which provides actionable value on Creighton at the current number. Providence beat Creighton 72-51 back on February 26th.
7:30 p.m. ET: Weber State vs Montana State
This Big Sky semifinal matchup may not be generating much interest with the betting public. But wiseguys have taken note. Weber State (21-11 SU, 14-17 ATS) just beat Montana 68-56 yesterday, easily covering as 3.5-point favorites. Similarly, Montana State (25-7 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) just crushed Sacramento State 83-61, covering as 10-point favorites. This line opened with Montana State listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk with Montana State, driving the Bobcats up from -1.5 to -2. Montana State holds an edge in rebounding (36 RPG vs 32 RPG). Ken Pom has Montana State winning by three points (74-71). He has Montana State ranked 135th and Weber State 173rd. These teams split in the regular season, with Weber State winning the first game 85-75 and then Montana State taking the rematch 78-57. Montana State is -130 on the moneyline.
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Post by Makers on Mar 12, 2022 6:18:18 GMT -5
3:30 p.m. ET: Kentucky vs Tennessee Benny????
This is the SEC Tournament Semifinal. Kentucky (26-6 SU, 14-17-1 ATS) is ranked 5th in the country and just beat Vanderbilt 77-71 in yesterday's quarterfinals, failing to cover as 11-point favorites. Meanwhile, Tennessee (24-7 SU, 18-13 ATS) is ranked 9th and just took down Mississippi State 72-59, covering as 7.5-point favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a short 2-point neutral court favorite. Respected money has laid the points, steaming Kentucky up from -2 to -2.5. Ken Pom has Kentucky winning by two points (71-69). He has Kentucky ranked 2nd and Tennessee 11th. Kentucky holds the edge on offense (80 PPG vs 74 PPG), shooting (49% vs 43%) and rebounding (40 RPG vs 37 RPG). Kentucky also has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (14-17-1) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (18-13). Kentucky is -135 on the moneyline.
7:30 p.m. ET: Akron vs Kent State
This is the MAC Tournament championship game, with the winner punching their ticket to the Big Dance. Akron (23-9 SU, 16-14 ATS) has won seven straight games and just upset Toledo 70-62, winning outright as 5.5-point dogs. Similarly, Kent State (23-9 SU, 17-11-2 ATS) has won 14-straight games and just beat Ohio 67-61 as 1.5-point dogs. This line opened with Kent State listed as a short 1-point favorite. Sharps have laid the chalk, driving Kent State up from -1 to -2. Ken Pom has Kent State winning by one point (64-63). Kent State went 2-0 against Akron this season, winning 66-64 and 67-55. Respected money is leaning on a lower scoring game, dropping the total from 125 to 123.5. This is the third game in three days for both clubs, which could cause tired legs. Both teams are "under" teams, with Akron 17-13 to the under and Kent State 18-11-1 to the under.
8 p.m. ET: Northern Colorado vs Montana State
This is the Big Sky Tournament championship game. Northern Colorado (20-14 SU, 14-15-2 ATS) has won two straight and just beat Portland State 86-79, covering as 4-point favorites. On the other hand, Montana State (26-7 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) has won five straight and just edged Weber State 69-66, winning outright as 1.5-point dogs. This line opened with Montana State listed as a 3.5-point neutral court favorite. We've seen this line creep up from 3.5 to 4, signaling pro money laying the points with Montana State. Ken Pom has Montana State winning by four points (78-74). He has Montana State ranked 134th and Northern Colorado 204th. Montana State's big edge comes on defense, allowing only 69 PPG compared to 77 for Northern Colorado.
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Post by Makers on Mar 15, 2022 5:17:48 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Missouri State vs OklahomaThis is the first round of the NIT. Missouri State (23-10 SU, 17-16 ATS) just fell to Drake 79-78 in overtime of the MVC semifinals, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma (18-15 SU, 17-16 ATS) just lost a heartbreaker to Texas Tech 56-55 in the Big 12 semifinals but covered as 7.5-point dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 6.5-point home favorite (yes Oklahoma is at home due to NIT rules). Despite the home court advantage, we've seen Oklahoma fall from 6.5 to 6, s ignaling pro money grabbing road dog Missouri State plus the hook. Ken Pom has Oklahoma winning by five points (75-70), which provides a slight edge to Missouri State 6. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 139 to 138. 9:10 p.m. ET: Indiana vs WyomingThis is the second First Four matchup of the night and features a pair of 12-seeds looking to advance to the Round of 64. Indiana (20-13 SU, 19-14 ATS) has an impressive run in the Big Ten Tournament, upsetting Michigan and Illinois before falling to Iowa in the semifinals 80-77 but covering as 6-point dogs. Meanwhile, Wyoming (25-8 SU, 17-13-2 ATS) just fell to Boise State 68-61 in the Mountain West semifinals, failing to cover as 3-point dogs. This game opened with Indiana listed as a 3.5-point neutral court favorite. The public is riding the Hoosiers after their deep underdog run in the conference tournament, driving Indiana up from -3.5 to -4. At this point, Wyoming offers buy-low value as an inflated contrarian dog in a heavily bet game. Ken Pom has Indiana winning by just one point (67-66), which means Wyoming plus the points offers actionable value based on the advanced analytics. 11 p.m. ET: Santa Clara vs Washington StateThis late night clash in the first round of the NIT. Santa Clara (21-11 SU, 19-11-2 ATS) just fell to Saint Mary's 75-72 in the WCC semifinals but covered as 4.5-point dogs. Similarly, Washington State (19-14 SU, 13-20 ATS) just lost to UCLA 75-65 in the Pac 12 quarterfinals, failing to cover as 8.5-point dogs. This line opened with Washington State listed as a 3-point favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, steaming Washington State up from -3 to -3.5. Ken Pom has Washington State winning by five points (79-74). This is a true home game for Washington State due to NIT rules. Washington State also has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (13-20) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (19-11). We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 151 to 150. Washington State is 18-13 to the under this season, including 12-6 to the under at home.
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Post by Makers on Mar 16, 2022 5:52:17 GMT -5
6:40 p.m. ET: Bryant vs Wright StateThis First Four showdown features a pair of 16-seeds battling for the right to take on top-seeded Arizona in the South Region. Bryant (22-9 SU, 17-13 ATS) has won seven straight to improve to 17-1 over their last 18 games. Bryant just beat Wagner 70-43 to win the NEC championship, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Meanwhile, Wright State (21-13 SU, 15-18 ATS) has won five straight and just took down Northern Kentucky 72-71 to win the Horizon League, winning outright as a 1-point dog. This line opened with Wright State listed as a 2-point neutral court favorite. The public is split down the middle, yet we've seen Wright State climb from -2 to -3.5, signaling pro money laying the short chalk. Ken Pom has Wright State winning by one point (79-78), with Wright State ranked 179th and Bryant 182nd. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 153 to 155.5. Some under buyback hit the under 155.5, dropping it back down to 154. The under has value as a contrarian bet at an inflated price. First Four unders are 24-14 (63%) over the past decade. 7 p.m. ET: Mississippi State vs VirginiaThis is the first round of the NIT. Mississippi State (18-15 SU, 16-17 ATS) went just 1-3 over their final four games, most recently falling to Tennessee 72-59 in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinals, failing to cover as 7.5-point dogs. Similarly, Virginia went just 2-3 down the stretch and just fell to North Carolina 63-43 in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals, failing to cover as 4-point dogs. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Virginia, steaming the Cavs up to -2.5. Ken Pom has Virginia winning by one point (64-63). He has Virginia ranked 84th and Mississippi State ranked 44th. Virginia is -140 on the moneyline. Home teams are 176-74 (70%) straight up in the NIT over the past decade. 9:10 p.m. ET: Notre Dame vs RutgersThis is the final First Four matchup of the NCAA Tournament, with a pair of 11-seeds battling for the chance to play 6-seed Alabama in the West Region. Notre Dame (22-10 SU, 17-15 ATS) has lost two of their last three games, most recently falling to Virginia Tech 87-80 in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals, failing to cover as 1-point dogs. Similarly, Rutgers (18-13 SU, 14-17 ATS) went just 2-4 over their last six games and just lost to Iowa 84-74 in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals, failing to cover as 6.5-point dogs. This line opened with Rutgers listed as a short 1-point favorite. The public is all over Rutgers, yet we've seen this line flip to Notre Dame as a 1-point favorite. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Fighting Irish. Ken Pom has Notre Dame winning by two points (67-65), with Notre Dame ranked 50th and Rutgers 74th. Notre Dame is -115 on the moneyline. The total opened at 132. The public is hammering the over, yet the line has remained frozen, signaling sharp under liability. First Four unders are 24-14 (63%) over the past decade. These are two of the slowest tempo teams in the country, with Notre Dame 65.7 and Rutgers 64.9.
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Post by Makers on Mar 17, 2022 5:34:45 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Mar 18, 2022 5:48:48 GMT -5
3:10 p.m. ET: Miami vs USCMiami (23-10 SU, 18-15 ATS) enters as the 10-seed and just fell to Duke 80-76 in the ACC Tournament semifinals, covering as 9-point dogs. Meanwhile, USC (26-7 SU, 15-18 ATS) enters as the 7-seed and just fell to UCLA 69-59 in the Pac 12 Tournament semifinals, failing to cover as 6-point dogs. This line opened with USC listed as a 1-point neutral court favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back, yet we've seen USC move from -1 to -2. This signals pro money laying the points with the Trojans. Ken Pom has USC winning by one point (73-72). He has USC ranked 42nd and Miami 58th. USC has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (15-18) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (18-15). USC is -135 on the moneyline. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 141 to 139.5. 4:30 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech vs TexasVirginia Tech (23-12 SU, 19-16 ATS) enters as the 11-seed and just upset Duke 82-67 to win the ACC Tournament championship, winning outright as 6-point dogs. On the other hand, Texas (21-11 SU, 12-19-1 ATS) as the 6-seed but has lost three straight and just fell to TCU 65-60 in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals, losing outright as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 1-point favorite. The public is riding the hot hand with Virginia Tech, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at Texas -1. This signals liability on Texas as a "fade the trendy dog" contrarian favorite. This is also a classic buy-low spot recency bias play in favor of Texas and against Virginia Tech. Ken Pom has Texas winning by two points (64-62). Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 125 to 123.5. 9:40 p.m. ET: Davidson vs Michigan StateDavidson (27-6 SU, 19-12 ATS) enters as the 10-seed and just fell to Richmond 64-62 in the Atlantic 10 Tournament championship, losing outright as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Michigan State (22-12 SU, 18-16 ATS) is the 7-seed and just lost to Purdue 75-70 in the Big Tournament Semifinals but covered as 6.5-point dogs. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a short 1.5-point favorite. The public is biased toward Sparty this time of year and is rushing to the window to lay the points with Michigan State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Michigan State from -1.5 to -1 and even inch toward a pick'em at some shops. This indicates wiseguy action on Davidson plus the points. Ken Pom has Davidson winning the game by one point (73-72).
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Post by Makers on Mar 19, 2022 5:23:33 GMT -5
6:10 p.m. ET: Richmond vs ProvidenceThis is the Midwest region second round. Richmond (24-12 SU, 17-18-1 ATS) is the 12-seed and just pulled off a big upset in the opening round, taking down Iowa 67-63 as 9.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Providence (26-5 SU, 18-13 ATS) is the 4-seed and just took care of business against South Dakota State, winning 66-57 and covering as 2.5-point favorites. This line opened with Providence listed as a 3-point favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the far better seeded Friars, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at 3 or even inch down to 2.5 at some shops, signaling pro money grabbing the points with underdog Richmond. Ken Pom has Providence winning by three points (70-67). 7:45 p.m. ET: Saint Peter's vs Murray StateThis is the East Region second round. Saint Peter's (20-11 SU, 22-9 ATS) is the 15-seed and just pulled off the biggest upset of March Madness, shocking Kentucky 85-79 and winning outright as 18.5-point dogs. On the other hand, Murray State (31-2) is the 7-seed and just beat San Francisco 92-87, covering as 2.5-point favorites. This line opened with Murray State listed as an 8-point favorite. Pros have laid the points, steaming Murray State up from -8 to -8.5 or even -9 at some shops. Ken Pom has Murray State winning by eight points (68-60). He has Murray State ranked 29th and Saint Peter's 108th). Both teams give up roughly 62 PPG on defense. The difference comes on offense where Murray State averages 79 PPG compared to 67 PPG for Saint Peter's. 9:40 p.m. ET: Memphis vs GonzagaThis is the West Region second round. Memphis (22-10) is the 9-seed and just beat Boise State 64-53 in the Round of 64, covering as 3.5-point favorites. Now they face the overall 1-seed Gonzaga (27-3), who just beat Georgia State 93-72 but failed to cover as 22.5-point favorites. This line opened with Gonzaga listed as a 10.5-point favorite. Wiseguys grabbed the hook with Memphis 10.5, causing the line to drop down to 10. Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by twelve points, which means the market is more bullish on the Memphis than the advanced analytics.
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Post by Makers on Mar 20, 2022 5:57:07 GMT -5
2:40 p.m. ET: Ohio State vs Villanova
This is the South Region second round. Ohio State (20-11) is the 7-seed and just beat Loyola Chicago 54-41, easily covering as a 1-point favorite. On the other hand, Villanova (27-7) is the 2-seed and just dominated Delaware 80-60, covering as 15-point favorites. This line opened with Villanova listed as a 4.5-point favorite. Sharps have laid the chalk with Villanova, pushing the Wildcats up from -4.5 to -5.5. Ken Pom has Villanova winning by five points (70-66). He has Villanova ranked 12th and Ohio State 30th. Pro bettors have also hit this over, raising the total from 131.5 to 132.5.
6:10 p.m. ET: Iowa State vs Wisconsin
This is the Midwest Region second round. Iowa State (21-12) is the 11-seed and just upset LSU 59-54 in the opening round, winning outright as a 3.5-point dog. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (25-7) is the 3-seed and just crushed aside Colgate 67-60 but failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point favorite. Respected money has steamed the Badgers, driving Wisconsin up from -3 to -5. Teams with line movement in their favor are 22-13 ATS (63%) this NCAA Tournament. Ken Pom only has Wisconsin winning by one point (64-63), which means the betting market is much more bullish on the Badgers than the advanced analytics.
8:40 p.m. ET: Texas vs Purdue Bry????
This is the East Region second round. Texas (22-11) enters as the 6-seed and just beat Virginia Tech 81-73 in the opening round, covering as 1.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Purdue (28-7) is the 3-seed and just crushed Yale 78-56, covering as 16.5-point favorites. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 3.5-point favorite. We've seen several shops fall from 3.5 to 3, signaling wiseguy money grabbing Texas plus the points. Ken Pom has Purdue winning by one point (69-68), which provides actionable value on the Boilermakers at the current number.
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Post by Makers on Mar 21, 2022 5:49:29 GMT -5
Texas Tech vs Duke
This Sweet 16 matchup takes place in West Region. Texas Tech (27-9) is the 3-seed. The Red Raiders crushed 14-seed Montana State 97-62 in the First Round and then took down 11-seed Notre Dame 59-53 in the Second Round. Meanwhile, Duke (30-6) is the 2-seed. The Blue Devils dismissed 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61 and then beat 7-seed Michigan State 85-76. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. The public is riding Duke in Coach K's final hurrah. However, we've seen this line shoot up to Texas Tech -1, signaling wisely action backing the Red Raiders. Ken Pom has Texas Tech winning by one point (69-68). He has Texas Tech ranked 6th and Duke 9th. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one, as the total has been bet down from 137.5 to 136.5.
North Carolina vs UCLA
This is the East Region Sweet 16 showdown. North Carolina (26-9) is the 8-seed. The Tar Heels beat 9-seed Marquette 95-63 in the Madness opener and then upset 1-seed Baylor 93-86 in overtime. On the other hand, UCLA (27-7) is the 4-seed. The Bruins edged 13-seed Akron 57-53 and then beat 5-seed Saint Mary's 72-56. This line opened with UCLA listed as a 2.5-point favorite. Early money has jumped on North Carolina getting the hook, dropping the line down from 2.5 to 2. March Madness teams with a line move in their favor are 26-16 ATS (62%). Ken Pom has UCLA winning by four points (74-70), which means the betting market is more bullish on North Carolina than the advanced analytics. Pros have also hit this over, driving the total up from 142 to 142.5.
Miami Florida vs Iowa State
This Sweet 16 clash takes place in the Midwest Region. Miami (25-10) is the 10-seed. The Hurricanes upset 7-seed USC 68-66 and then took down 2-seed Auburn 79-61. Similarly, Iowa State (22-12) is the 11-seed and has beaten 6-seed LSU 59-54 and 3-seed Wisconsin 54-59. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a short 1-point favorite. Pro bettors have hammered Miami, flipping the Hurricanes from a 1-point dog to a 1.5-point favorite. Ken Pom has Iowa State winning by one point (68-67), which goes against the early market movement. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 134.5 to 133.5.
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Post by Makers on Mar 22, 2022 5:52:22 GMT -5
6 p.m. ET: Vanderbilt at Xavier
This is the NIT Quarterfinals. Vanderbilt (19-16 SU, 21-13-1 ATS) took down Belmont 82-71 in the opening round, covering as 2.5-point favorites and then beat Dayton 70-68 but failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Xavier (20-13 SU, 15-18 ATS) started the tournament with a 72-68 win over Cleveland State, failing to cover as 11-point favorites, and then dismissed Florida 72-56 and covering as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Xavier listed as a 4-point home favorite (yes, this is a true home game and not a neutral court). The public is backing Xavier at home, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at 4 or even fall to 3.5 at some shops. This indicates respected money grabbing the points with Vanderbilt. Ken Pom has Xavier winning by four points (75-71). Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 143.5 to 142.5.
7 p.m. ET: St. Bonaventure vs Virginia
This is the NIT Quarterfinals. St. Bonaventure (22-9 SU, 14-17 ATS) beat Colorado 76-68 in the NIT opener, winning outright as 3.5-point dogs, then beat Oklahoma 70-68 as 5.5-point dogs. On the other hand, Virginia (21-13 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) has beaten Mississippi State 60-57, pushing as 3-point favorites, and then upset North Texas 71-69 as 1.5-point dogs. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 3.5-point home favorite (this a true home game for Virginia, not a neutral court game). The public is happy to lay the short chalk at home with the Cavs. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has remained frozen at 3.5 and even flirted with a fall down to 3. This signals respected money grabbing St. Bonaventure plus the points. Ken Pom has Virginia winning by three points (66-63). Respected money is also leaning on a lower-scoring game, as we've seen the total fall from 126 to 125.5 at most shops.
9 p.m. ET: Southern Utah vs UTEP
This is the Second Round of the Basketball Classic. Southern Utah (21-11 SU, 13-18 ATS) took down Kent State 83-79 in the opening round, winning outright as 1.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, UTEP (20-13 SU, 16-15 ATS) just crushed Western Illinois 80-54, easily covering as 8-point favorites. This line opened with UTEP listed as a 4.5-point home favorite (another true home game, not neutral court). We've seen this line either stay at 4.5 or fall to 4, indicating some wiseguy liability on Southern Utah plus the points. Ken Pom has UTEP winning by four points (76-72).
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Post by Makers on Mar 23, 2022 5:40:06 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Wake Forest vs Texas A&M
This is the NIT Quarterfinal. Wake Forest (25-9 SU, 20-13-1 ATS) beat Towson 74-64 in the opening round, covering as 8.5-point favorites, and then took down VCU 80-74 in round two, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (25-12 SU, 20-15-1 ATS) has beaten Alcorn State 74-62, failing to cover as 18.5-point favorites, and then edged Oregon 75-60, covering as 4-point favorites.
This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 2.5-point home favorite (yes, this a true home game for the Aggies). The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But a closer look at the spread signals liability on Texas A&M, with several shops juicing up the Aggies -2.5 to -115, signaling a possible rise to 3. Ken Pom has Texas A&M winning by three points (76-73). The Aggies are 15-4 at home this season. Wake Forest is 5-5 on the road. NIT home teams are 18-8 straight up this tournament. The Aggies are -150 on the moneyline.
Both of these teams are "over teams," with Wake Forest 20-14 to the over and Texas A&M 23-13 to the over. The total has yet to budge off the opener of 146.5. Wake Forest is one of the faster paced teams in the country with an adjusted temp of 70.5.
9 p.m. ET: Washington State vs BYU
This is the NIT Quarterfinal. Washington State (21-14 SU, 15-20 ATS) took down Santa Clara 63-50 in the opener, covering as 3.5-point favorites, and then upset SMU 75-63, winning outright as 2.5-point dogs. Now they face BYU (24-10 SU, 15-17 ATS), who crushed Long Beach State 93-72, covering as 11.5-point favorites and then dismissed Northern Iowa 90-71, covering as 5-point favorites. This line opened with BYU listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros have jumped on Washington State plus the hook, dropping the line from 3.5 to 3. Ken Pom has BYU winning by four points (73-69), which means the betting market is slightly more bullish on Washington State than the advanced analytics.
Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 143.5 to 142.5. Washington State has been one of the best under teams this season (20-13-2). The under is 2-0 in Washington State's first two NIT games. Washington State plays a slow pace with an adjusted temp of 66.3.
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Post by Makers on Mar 24, 2022 5:26:46 GMT -5
7:09 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Gonzaga
This is the Sweet 16 clash in the West Region. Arkansas (27-8 SU, 20-14-1 ATS) is the 4-seed, having beaten 13-seed Vermont 75-71 but failing to cover as 5-point favorites and then edging 12-seed New Mexico State 53-48 but failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Gonzaga (28-3 SU, 15-15-1 ATS) is the 1-seed and has beaten 16-seed Georgia Southern 93-72, failing to cover as 22.5-point favorites and then escaped with an 82-78 win over 9-seed Memphis but failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites. This line opened with Gonzaga listed as an 8.5-point favorite. The public wants to sweat the top-seeded Zags but is wary of laying the big number, especially with the Zags failing to cover in both of their March Madness games thus far. However, despite a relatively split ticket count, we've seen Gonzaga grow from -8.5 to -9.5, indicating wiseguy action laying the points with the Zags. Gonzaga will lean on their offensive advantage (88 PPG vs 76 PPG). Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by ten points (82-72). Gonzaga is the favorite to cut down the nets at +230 (BetMGM). Arkansas is +5000. Drew Timme is the favorite to win Tournament Most Outstanding Player at +350.
9:39 p.m. ET: Texas Tech vs Duke
This is the Sweet 16 matchup in the West Region. Texas Tech (27-9 SU, 22-14 ATS) is the 3-seed, beating 14-seed Montana State 97-62 in the first round, covering as 15-point favorites, and then edging 11-seed Notre Dame 59-53 but failing to cover as 8-point favorites. Meanwhile, Duke (30-6 SU, 18-15-3 ATS) is the 2-seed, beating 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61 in the opener but failing to cover as 18.5-point favorites and then dismissing 7-seed Michigan State 85-76 and covering as 6.5-point favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Love them or hate them, the public is all over Duke in Coach K's final hurrah. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move to Texas Tech -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Red Raiders, who have value as a contrarian favorite and "Fade the Trendy dog" play. Ken Pom has Texas Tech winning this game by one point (69-68). The Red Raiders boast the top adjusted defense in the country. Texas Tech is +1600 to win the Big Dance. Duke is +1400.
9:59 p.m. ET: Houston vs Arizona
This is the Sweet 16 showdown in the South Region. Houston (31-5 SU, 24-12 ATS) is the 5-seed and has beaten 12-seed UAB 82-68, covering as 8.5-point favorites and then edging 4-seed Illinois 68-53, covering as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Arizona (33-3 SU, 19-15-2 ATS) is the 1-seed, beating 16-seed Wright State 87-70, failing to cover as 21.5-point favorites, and then squeaking by 9-seed TCU 85-80 but failing to cover as 10-point favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with higher-seed Wildcats. However, this line has fallen from 2 to 1.5, indicating pro money grabbing the points with contrarian dog Houston. Ken Pom has Houston winning the game by one point (74-73). Houston will lean on its smothering defense, giving up just 59 PPG compared to 68 PPG allowed for Arizona. Houston is +1000 to win March Madness. Arizona is +500.
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Post by Makers on Mar 25, 2022 6:36:04 GMT -5
7:29 p.m. ET: Providence vs Kansas
This Midwest grudge match is the most heavily bet early game of the bunch. Providence (27-5 SU, 19-13 ATS) is the 4-seed. The Friars have beaten 13-seed South Dakota State 66-57, covering as 2.5-point favorites, and then crushed 12-seed Richmond 79-51, cruising as 3.5-point favorites. Now they face Kansas (30-6 SU, 18-18 ATS), the tournament's final remaining 1-seed. Kansas beat 16-seed Texas Southern 83-56, covering as 21.5-point favorites, and then outlasted 9-seed Creighton 79-72 but failing to cover as 13-point favorites. This line opened with Kansas listed as an 8-point favorite. Respected money has jumped on Providence plus the points, dropping the line from 8 to 7.5. Some shops are hinting at a further fall to 7. Teams with a line move in their favor are 26-18 ATS (59%) this tournament. Ken Pom has Kansas winning by seven points, which means the hook could be critical.
9:39 p.m. ET: North Carolina vs UCLA
This East Region matchup features two of the winningest programs in college basketball history. North Carolina (26-9 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) is the 8-seed. The Tar Heels have beaten 9-seed Marquette 95-63, easily covering as 4-point favorites, and then shocked 1-seed Baylor 92-86 in overtime, winning outright as 5.5-point dogs. Now they face 4-seed UCLA (27-7 SU, 18-15-1 ATS). The Bruins squeaked by 13-seed Akron 57-53, failing to cover as 13.5-point favorites, and then crushed 5-seed Saint Mary's 72-56, covering as 3-point favorites. This line opened with UCLA listed as a 2.5-point favorite. We've seen this line fall from 2.5 to 2, signaling pro money grabbing North Carolina plus the points. Ken Pom has UCLA winning by five points (75-70), which means the betting market is far more bullish on North Carolina than the advanced analytics. Sharps have also bet the under, dropping the total from 142.5 to 141.5.
9:59 p.m. ET: Iowa State vs Miami Florida
This Midwest Region clash features a pair of double-digit seed Cinderellas facing off. Iowa State (22-12 SU, 19-15 ATS) is the 11-seed and has taken down 6-seed LSU 59-54, winning outright as 3.5-point dogs, and then upsetting 3-seed Wisconsin 54-49 as 4-point dogs. Similarly, Miami (25-10 SU, 20-15 ATS) is the 10-seed, having beaten 7-seed USC 68-66 as 2.5-point dogs and then crushing 2-seed Auburn 79-61 as 6.5-point dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick'em, with some shops even hanging Iowa State -1 early. We've seen a wave of sharp action hammer Miami, flipping the Hurricanes to a 2.5-point favorite. Ken Pom has Iowa State winning by one point (68-67), which is at odds with the market movement. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 134 to 133.
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Post by Makers on Mar 26, 2022 5:49:15 GMT -5
6:09 p.m. ET: Houston vs Villanova
The Elite 8 showdown takes place in the South Region. Houston (32-5 SU, 25-12 ATS) is the 5-seed. The Cougars just took down 1-seed Arizona 72-60 in the Sweet 16, winning outright as 1.5-point dogs. Previously, Houston beat 4-seed Illinois 68-53, covering as 3.5-point favorites, and edged 12-seed UAB 82-68, covering as 8.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Villanova (29-7 SU, 19-15-2 ATS) is the 2-seed and just beat 11-seed Michigan 63-55 in the Sweet 16, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Villanova also beat 7-seed Ohio State 71-61, covering as 5-point favorites, and crushed 15-seed Delaware 80-60, covering as 15-point favorites.
This line opened with Houston listed as a short 2-point favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, driving Houston up from -2 to -2.5. Teams with a line move in their favor are 28-19 ATS (60%) this March Madness. Ken Pom has Houston winning by two points (65-63). He has Houston ranked 2nd and Villanova 11th. Houston is -145 on the moneyline. We've also seen some sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 129 to 128. These are two of the slowest teams in terms of tempo in the country. The under is 2-1 for both teams this March Madness.
8:49 p.m. ET: (Scooters Piglets) Arkansas vs Duke
This primetime West Region clash will likely be the most heavily bet game of the night. Arkansas (28-8 SU, 21-14-1 ATS) the 4-seed. The Razorbacks just shocked 1-seed Gonzaga 74-68, winning outright as 9.5-point dogs. Arkansas also beat 12-seed New Mexico State 53-48, failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites and took down 13-seed Vermont 75-71, failing to cover as 5-point favorites. Now they must face 2-seed Duke (31-6 SU, 19-15-3 ATS), who just edged 3-seed Texas Tech 78-73, cashing as a pick'em. Previously, Duke dismissed 7-seed Michigan State 85-76, covering as 6.5-point favorites, and crushed 15-seed CS Fullerton 78-61 but failed to cover as 18.5-point favorites.
This line opened with Duke listed as a 4-point favorite. The public is riding the Dukies in Coach K's last hurrah, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at 4 or even dip to 3.5 at some shops. This signals liability on Arkansas plus the points. Ken Pom has Duke winning by four points (76-72), which is right on the number. He has Duke ranked 8th and Arkansas 16th. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 147.5.
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