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Post by Makers on Mar 27, 2022 5:39:59 GMT -5
With Houston and Arkansas getting knocked out yesterday, here are the updated odds to cut down the nets at BetMGM. Duke +200 Kansas +200 Villanova +350 North Carolina +600 Saint Peter's +2000 2:20 p.m. ET: Miami vs KansasThis is the Midwest Region Elite 8 clash. Miami (26-10 SU, 21-15 ATS) is the 10-seed and just beat 11-seed Iowa State 70-56 in the Sweet 16, easily covering as 3.5-point favorites. Previously, Miami took down 2-seed Auburn 79-61, winning outright as 6.5-point dogs, and then edged 7-seed USC 68-66, winning outright as 2.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Kansas (31-6 SU, 18-19 ATS) is the only remaining 1-seed in the tournament and just beat 4-seed Providence 66-61 but failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Before that, Kansas beat 9-seed Creighton 79-72 but failed to cover as 13-point favorites and also crushed 16-seed Texas Southern 83-56, covering as 21.5-point favorites. This line opened with Kansas listed as a 6.5-point favorite. We've seen this line inch down from 6.5 to 6 at most shops, signaling respected money grabbing the points with Miami. Teams with at least a half point of line movement in their favor are 29-20 ATS (59%) this March Madness. Ken Pom has Kansas winning by seven points (80-73). We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 148.5 to 147.5. The under is 3-0 for Miami in March Madness. The under is 2-1 for Kansas. 5:05 p.m. ET: Saint Peter's vs North CarolinaThis is the East Region Elite 8 grudge match. Saint Peter's (22-11 SU, 24-9 ATS) has been the Cinderella of the Tournament, becoming the first 15-seed to ever reach the Elite 8. Saint Peter's is coming off a thrilling 67-64 win over 3-seed Purdue, winning outright as 13-point dogs. Previously, Saint Peter's upset 7-seed Murray State 70-60, winning outright as 8-point dogs, and also shocked 2-seed Kentucky 85-79, winning outright as 18.5-point dogs. Now they face 8-seed North Carolina (27-9 SU, 19-16-1 ATS), who just upset 4-seed UCLA 73-66 as 2.5-point dogs. North Carolina also beat 1-seed Baylor 93-86, winning outright as 5.5-point dogs and also crushed 9-seed Marquette 95-63, easily covering as 4-point favorites. This line opened with North Carolina listed as an 8-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with Cinderella Saint Peter's. However, this line has risen from 8 to 8.5, signaling pro money laying the points with the Tar Heels. Ken Pom has UNC winning by eight points (72-64). Pros have also leaned on the over, raising the total from 136.5 to 137. Both teams are 2-1 to the over this tournament.
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Post by Makers on Mar 28, 2022 5:59:04 GMT -5
Here are the latest odds to cut down the nets at BetMGM. Duke +155 Kansas +185 Villanova +400 North Carolina +500
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Post by Makers on Mar 28, 2022 6:00:28 GMT -5
Villanova vs Kansas
Both of these top two seeds are riding 9-game win streaks. Villlanova (30-7) is the 2-seed and coming off a 50-44 win over 5-seed Houston in the Elite 8. Previously, Villanova beat 11-seed Michigan 63-55, took down 7-seed Ohio State 71-61 and crushed 15-seed Delaware 80-60. Now they face 1-seed Kansas (32-6), who just dominated 10-seed Miami 76-50. Kansas has also beaten 4-seed Providence 66-61, edged 9-seed Creighton 79-72 and crushed 16-seed Texas Southern 83-56.
This line opened with Kansas listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, driving Kansas up from -3.5 to -4. Some shops are up to -4.5. One big reason for the jump: Villanova starting guard Justin Moore (15 PPG) will miss the game with a season-ending achilles injury. Ken Pom has Kansas winning by just one point (70-69), but that may not be factoring in the Moore injury. He has Kansas ranked 4th and Villanova 9th. The total has also ticked up slightly from 123.5 to 133, indicating some slight over support. Villanova plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball (62.6 tempo). Kansas is much quicker (69.5).
North Carolina vs Duke
One of college basketball's greatest rivalries renews once again. North Carolina (28-9) is the 8-seed and coming off a 69-49 shellacking of 15-seed Saint Peter's in the Elite 8. North Carolina also took down 4-seed UCLA 73-66, upset 1-seed Baylor 93-86 and crushed 9-seed Marquette 95-63. Meanwhile, Duke (32-6) is the 2-seed and just brushed off 4-seed Arkansas 78-69. Duke also beat 3-seed Texas Tech 78-73, dismissed 7-seed Michigan State 85-76 and crushed 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61.
This line opened with Duke listed as a 4-point favorite. Respected money seems to be leaning with Coach K in his final hurrah, driving Duke up from -4 to -4.5. Ken Pom has Duke winning by four points (79-75). He has Duke ranked 8th and North Carolina 16th. The over has also taken in some notable action, rising from 150 to 151.
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Post by Makers on Mar 29, 2022 5:55:29 GMT -5
Monday’s recaps
NBA: Faves went 7-2 SU but dogs led 5-4 ATS as the Celtics (+ 8.5 in 115-112 OT loss at Raptors), Magic (+ 8.5 in 107-101 loss at Cavaliers) and Rockets (+ 9.5 in 123-120 loss at Spurs) covered as dogs in SU losses. The 2 outright upsets were by the Knicks (+ 3.5 in 109-104 win vs. Bulls) and Thunder (+ 1.5 in 134-131 OT win at Blazers). Overs went 5-4.
NHL: Faves went 3-2 with the upsets by the Sabers (+ 145 in 6-5 win at Blackhawks) and Kraken (+ 175 in 6-1 rout at Kings). The 3 winning faves -- Hurricanes -133 in 6-1 rout at Capitals, Blues -160 in 4-1 win vs. Canucks and Oilers -392 in 6-1 rout vs. Coyotes -- all covered their -1.5 puck lines. Overs went 4-1.
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Post by Makers on Mar 31, 2022 7:46:11 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Xavier vs Texas A&M
This NIT Title game takes place at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Xavier (22-13 SU, 16-19 ATS) is coming off a 84-77 upset win over St. Bonaventure in the NIT Semifinals, winning outright as 1.5-point dogs. Previously, Xavier beat Vanderbilt 75-73, took down Florida 72-56 and edged Cleveland State 72-68. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (27-12 SU, 22-15-1 ATS) just crushed Washington State 72-56, easily covering as 2-point favorites. The Aggies also dismissed Wake Forest 67-52, crushed Oregon 75-60 and beat Alcorn State 74-62.
This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 4-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Aggies, who are 4-0 ATS in the NIT Tournament and have won all four games by double digits. This lopsided betting has driven the line up from 4 to 4.5. Xavier has value as a contrarian inflated line dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Ken Pom has Texas A&M winning by just two points (74-72), which provides actionable value to Xavier plus the hook. Xavier also has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (16-19) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (22-15-1). The total hasn't budged off the opener of 137.5. The under is 4-0 in Texas A&M NIT games. Xavier is 2-2 to the total. The Aggies are on the slow side in terms of tempo (66.8). Xavier is slightly quicker at 68.6.
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Post by Makers on Apr 2, 2022 7:11:38 GMT -5
6:09 p.m. ET: Villanova vs Kansas
Villlanova (30-7) is the 2-seed and coming off a 50-44 win over 5-seed Houston in the Elite 8, winning outright as 3-point dogs. Previously, Villanova beat 11-seed Michigan 63-55 (covering as 4.5-point favorites), took down 7-seed Ohio State 71-61 (covering as 5-point favorites) and crushed 15-seed Delaware 80-60 (covering as 15-point favorites). Now they face 1-seed Kansas (32-6), who just dominated 10-seed Miami 76-50, easily covering as 5-point favorites. Kansas has also beaten 4-seed Providence 66-61 (failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites), edged 9-seed Creighton 79-72 (failing to cover as 13-point favorites) and crushed 16-seed Texas Southern 83-56 (covering as 21.5-point favorites).
This line opened with Kansas listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Respected money laid the chalk almost immediately, driving Kansas up from -3.5 to -4.5. One big reason for the early jump: Villanova starting guard Justin Moore (15 PPG) will miss the game with a season-ending achilles injury. The line remained frozen at Kansas -4.5 for much of the week. But over the past 24-hours we've seen respected buyback pounce on Villanova +4.5, dropping the line back down to 4. At BetMGM, 66% of bets are laying the points with Kansas. Villanova has value as a contrarian play in a heavily bet game with late buyback in their favor. Ken Pom has Kansas winning by just one point (70-69). He has Kansas ranked 4th and Villanova 9th.
The total has also ticked up slightly from 123.5 to 133, indicating some over support. The over is getting 56% of bets at 63% of money. Villanova plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball (62.6 tempo). Kansas is much quicker (69.5). Both teams are 3-1 to the under in March Madness.
8:49 p.m. ET: North Carolina vs Duke
North Carolina (28-9) is the 8-seed and coming off a 69-49 shellacking of 15-seed Saint Peter's in the Elite 8, easily covering as 8.5-point favorites. North Carolina also took down 4-seed UCLA 73-66 (winning outright as 2.5-point dogs), upset 1-seed Baylor 93-86 (winning outright as 5.5-point dogs) and crushed 9-seed Marquette 95-63 (easily covering as 4-point favorites). Meanwhile, Duke (32-6) is the 2-seed and just brushed off 4-seed Arkansas 78-69, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Duke also beat 3-seed Texas Tech 78-73 (covering as a pick'em), dismissed 7-seed Michigan State 85-76 (covering as a 6.5-point favorites) and crushed 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61 (failing to cover as 18.5-point favorites).
This line opened with Duke listed as a 4-point favorite. This line briefly ticked up to 4.5. That's when respected North Carolina money grabbed the hook, dropping the line back down to 4. We've been frozen at 4 nearly all week. This is a game in which late game-day movement will be telling. If it trends down to 3.5, that will signal further UNC confidence. If it ticks back to 4.5, that will indicate late Duke action. Ken Pom has Duke winning by four points (79-75). He has Duke ranked 8th and North Carolina 16th. Currently 59% of bets are 74% of money are grabbing the points with North Carolina.
Respected money has also leaned over in this one. At BetMGM, 61% of bets are taking the under, yet we've seen the total tick up slightly from 150.5 to 151. It even touched 151.5 at some shops. Essentially, we are looking at a rare contrarian over opportunity. Both of these teams are "over" teams, with North Carolina 21-16 to the over and Duke 21-17 to the over. Both teams are 2-2 to the total in March Madness. Duke tempo is 67.3. North Carolina is much quicker at 70.3.
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Post by Makers on Apr 4, 2022 5:06:07 GMT -5
9:30 PM??????
9:20 p.m. ET: North Carolina vs Kansas
Welcome to the National Championship game. North Carolina (29-9 SU, 21-16-1 ATS) enters as the underdog 8-seed, having just upset 2-seed Duke 81-77 in the Final Four as a 4.5-point dog. Prior to the Final Four, North Carolina took down 15-seed St. Peter's 69-49, covering as 8.5-point favorites, upset 4-seed UCLA 73-66 as 2.5-point dogs, shocked 1-seed Baylor 83-86 as 5.5-point dogs and crushed 9-seed Marquette 95-63, easily covering as 4-point favorites.
Meanwhile, Kansas (33-6 SU, 20-19 ATS) is the 1-seed and just throttled Villanova 81-65 in the Final Four, easily covering as 4-point favorites. Kansas has also beaten 10-seed Miami 76-50, covering as 5-point favorites, edged 4-seed Providence 66-61, failing to covering as 6.5-point favorites, outlasted 9-seed Creighton 79-72, failing to cover as 13-point favorites, and obliterated 16-seed Texas Southern 83-56, covering as 18.5-point favorites.
This line opened with Kansas listed as a 4-point favorite. According to BetMGM, the public is split down the middle with 51% of bets laying the points with Kansas and 49% grabbing the points with underdog North Carolina. This line rose to 4.5 early on, signaling some respected action on Kansas. But then we saw some sharp buyback on North Carolina plus the hook, dropping the line back down to 4. Essentially, we are looking at a line freeze. The next move will be critical. If the line falls to 3.5 on gameday, that will signal pro money breaking with North Carolina. If it rises to 4.5, that will indicate further Kansas support. North Carolina is currently 170 on the moneyline. Kansas is -200.
Ken Pom has Kansas winning by six points (80-74). He has Kansas ranked 3rd and North Carolina 16th. We've also seen some wiseguy under money come in. Currently 64% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell from 153.5 to 152, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the under. The quick turnaround from Saturday's Final Four might be a reason for the under steam, implying tired legs and front rimmed shots. Unders are 34-28 (55%) in March Madness.
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Post by Makers on Apr 7, 2022 5:55:37 GMT -5
2:20 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago CubsThis is the first game of the day and also the first game of the 2022 MLB season. The Brewers went 95-67 last season, winning the AL Central by five-games over the second place Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cubs finished 71-91, a whopping 24-games behind first place Milwaukee. In today's season opener, Milwaukee hands the ball to righty and defending Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43 ERA in 2021). The Cubs counter with veteran righty Kyle Hendricks (14-7, 4.77 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -150 road favorite and Chicago a +130 home dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Brewers, steaming Milwaukee up from -150 to -190. Keep an eye on the total in this one (10). The weather calls for mid 40s with 15 MPH winds blowing out to center at Wrigley Field, which typically benefits the offense. The Brewers' win total is 90.5 at BetMGM while the Cubs sit at 74.5. 4:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians???? at Kansas City RoyalsBoth of these AL Central rivals finished well behind the first place White Sox in last year's division. The Guardians went 80-82 last season, trailing Chicago by 13-games. Similarly, the Royals went 74-88, finishing 19-games behind the White Sox. In this late afternoon opener, Cleveland starts ace righty Shane Bieber (7-4, 3.17 ERA) while the Royals trot out veteran righty Zack Greinke (11-6, 4.16 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a short -120 road favorite and Kansas City a +110 home dog. Pros seem to be leaning toward the Guardians as we've seen this line tick up closer to Cleveland -130. The total is 8 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a lower-scoring game. The Guardians have value as a favorite with a low total. The forecast calls for high 40s with 15-20 MPH winds blowing left to right at Kauffman Stadium. The Guardians' win total is 76.5. The Royals sit at 74.5. 9:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Arizona DiamondbacksThis late night clash features a pair of NL West opponents looking to rebound from losing seasons. The Padres finished a disappointing 79-83 last season, 28-games behind first place San Francisco. The Diamondbacks were even worse, finishing 52-110 for the worst record in all of baseball. In tonight's opener, San Diego hands the ball to veteran righty Yu Darvish (8-11, 4.22 ERA) and Arizona counters with veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner (7-10, 4.67 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -150 road favorite and Arizona a +135 home dog. Thus line has crept up to Padres -160 at most shops, signaling respected money laying the wood with San Diego. The Padres' win total is 88.5 while the Snakes sit at 66.5. The total is 9. The Chase Field roof is expected to be open as the forecast calls for mid 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from center.
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Post by Makers on Apr 8, 2022 7:03:48 GMT -5
2:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (0-0) at Colorado Rockies (0-0)These NL West rivals finished at opposite ends of the division standings last season. The Dodgers went 106-56, trailing the first-place Giants by one game. Meanwhile, the Rockies went 74-87, a whopping 32.5-games out of first place. In this afternoon's season opener, the Dodgers send out ace righty Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA in 2021) and the Rockies counter with lefty Kyle Freeland (7-8, 4.33 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -190 road favorite and Colorado a +175 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -190 to -200. Opening Day favorites are 163-99 (62%) since 2005. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game at Coors Field. The total opened at 11 and has been bet up to 11.5. The Dodgers' win total is 98.5 while the Rockies sit at 69.5. 3:05 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (0-0) at Philadelphia Phillies (0-0)This Interleague matchup features two teams with far different expectations in 2022. The rebuilding Athletics traded away several key veterans this offseason in exchange for prospects. Meanwhile, the Phillies spent big money in free agency, adding Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber to an already stacked offensive lineup. Oakland's win total is 68.5 while the Phillies sit at 86.5. In this afternoon's season opener, the Athletics hand the ball to righty Frankie Montas (13-9, 3.37 ERA) and the Phillies counter with ace righty Aaron Nola (9-9, 4.63 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -170 home favorite and Oakland a +150 road dog. Wiseguys are laying the chalk with the Phillies at home, steaming Philadelphia up from -170 to -180. The total opened at 8 and most books are juicing the under to -115 or -120, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 7.5. Philadelphia has value as an Interleague Favorite with a low total and a line move in their favor. 7:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (1-0) at Atlanta Braves (0-1)The Reds took yesterday's season opener 6-3, cashing as +160 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Cincinnati hands the ball to lefty Reiver Sanmartin (2-0, 1.54 ERA) while Atlanta turns to veteran righty Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -180 home favorite and the Reds a +150 road dog. Respected money is banking on Atlanta to bounce back with a victory, driving the Braves closer to -190 at most shops. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5.
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Post by Makers on Apr 9, 2022 5:57:40 GMT -5
1 :10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (0-1) at Tampa Bay Rays (1-0)The Rays took Friday night's season opener 2-1, taking care of business as -185 home favorites. In this early afternoon rematch, Baltimore starts righty Jordan Lyles (10-13, 5.15 ERA in 2021) while Tampa Bay gives the nod to fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (4-1, 2.84 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a hefty -220 home favorite and the Orioles a +200 road dog. Wiseguys aren't scared off by the big chalk price, steaming the Rays up from -220 to -230. We could be looking at a lower scoring game in this one, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115 or -120. Historically, unders have performed better in domes or closed roof stadiums due to the fact that the ball doesn't travel as well as being outdoors. 3:07 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (0-1) at Toronto Blue Jays (1-0)The Jays won Friday night's series opener 10-8, overcoming a 7-0 deficit to cash as -160 home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, Texas righty Dane Dunning (5-10, 4.91 ERA in 2021) takes the mound against Toronto ace Kyle Gausman (14-6, 2.81 ERA). This line opened with the Blue Jays listed as a -190 home favorite and the Rangers a +175 road dog. Smart money is backing Toronto and their loaded lineup at home, driving the Jays up from -190 to -200. Yesterday's over cashed easily and wiseguys seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." The total is 9 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a higher scoring game and possible rise up to -9.5. The Rogers Centre roof is expected to be open. The forecast calls for mid 40s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right center. 7:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (1-1) at Atlanta Braves (1-1)These National League non-division foes have split the first two games of the series. The Reds took the opener 6-3, cashing as +155 road dogs. Then the Braves rebounded with a 7-6 win on Friday, cashing as -180 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Reds hand the ball to righty Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6, 4.74 ERA in 2021) while the Braves counter with fellow righty Kyle Wright (0-1, 9.95 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -150 home favorite and Cincinnati a +140 road dog. Respected money had laid the chalk with Atlanta, driving the Braves up from -150 to -165. Non-division home favorites are 499-314 (61.4%) since 2021. The total is 10 with the over juiced to -115 at some shops, signaling a possible higher scoring game. The forecast calls for mid 50s with w inds blowing 10-15 MPH out to left center.
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Post by Makers on Apr 10, 2022 5:44:04 GMT -5
Yesterday we saw MLB unders go an incredible 13-1-1. Unders are now 21-11-2 (66%) on the season. Favorites are off to a 22-12 (65%) start. 1:05 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (0-2) at Philadelphia Phillies (2-0)The Phillies have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, winning the opener 9-5 as -190 home favorites and then winning again on Saturday 4-2 as -200 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, Oakland hands the ball to young righty Daulton Jefferies (1-0, 3.60 ERA in 2021) while Philadelphia counters with veteran righty Zach Eflin (4-7, 4.17 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -200 home favorite and Oakland a +180 road dog. Pros seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," steaming the Phillies up from -200 to -220. Non-division home favorites are 500-314 (61%) since over the past two seasons. The total opened at 9.5 and has fallen to 9, signaling pro money leaning on a lower-scoring game. The forecast calls for high 40s with 15 MPH winds blowing in from left center. 1:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (0-2) at Tampa Bay Rays (2-0)The Rays have won both games in this AL East divisional clash, beating the Orioles 2-1 as -185 favorites in the opener and winning again yesterday 5-3 as -210 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, Baltimore hands the ball to righty Tyler Wells (2-3, 4.11 ERA in 2021) while Tampa Bay sends out veteran righty Corey Kluber (5-3, 3.83 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -200 home favorite and the Orioles a +185 road dog. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the Rays to complete the sweep, steaming Tampa Bay up from -200 to -210. Home favorites -200 or more are 4-0 so far this season. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -120. Some shops have even fallen to 8.5. This indicates some respected money leaning under. The under is 2-0 so far this series. Historically, unders have performed better in domes or closed roof stadiums due to the perfect pitching conditions and the ball doesn't travel as well indoors. 2:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (0-2) at Kansas City Royals (2-0)The Royals have taken both games in this AL Central series, winning the opener 3-1 as +110 home dogs and winning again on Saturday 1-0 as -120 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, Cleveland taps righty Cal Quantrill (8-3, 2.89 ERA in 2021) while Kansas City trots out lefty Kris Bubic (6-7, 4.43 ERA). This line opened with the Royals listed as a short -120 home favorite and the Guardians a +110 road dog. Respected money has come down on Cleveland to avoid the sweep, dropping the Guardians from +110 to -105. Essentially, sharp Cleveland money has dropped the game to a pick'em. The Guardians have value as a divisional dog with a high total. The first two games of this series sailed under. But today's total is 8.5 with the over juiced up to -120, signaling some over support and a possible rise to 9. The forecast calls for low 70s with 20 MPH winds blowing out to dead center, which provides an added boost to the offense.
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Post by Makers on Apr 11, 2022 6:48:03 GMT -5
3:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (1-2) at Baltimore Orioles (0-3)The Brewers just picked up their first win of the season on Sunday, taking down the Cubs 5-4 as -130 road favorites. The win snapped a two-game losing skid to start the season. Meanwhile, the Orioles just got swept by the Rays, including an 8-0 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday as +155 road dogs. In this afternoon's Interleague Series opener, Milwaukee taps righty Adrian Houser (10-6, 3.22 ERA in 2021) while Baltimore sends out lefty Bruce Zimmerman (4-5, 5.04 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -145 road favorite and Baltimore a +135 home dog. Wiseguys have laid the chalk with Milwaukee, steaming the Brewers up from -145 to -160. Milwaukee has value as a non-conference favorite with a line move in their favor. Some books opened with a total of 8.5 and got bet up to 9, signaling some over support. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center. 5:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (1-2) at Detroit Tigers (1-2)The Red Sox are coming off a 4-3 win over the Yankees on Sunday, avoiding a series sweep and cashing as +125 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Tigers won their season opener against the White Sox but have since dropped two straight. Detroit just got crushed by the White Sox 10-1 on Sunday, losing as 120 home dogs. In tonight's early evening series debut, Boston hands the ball to righty Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.05 ERA in 2021) and Detroit counters with fellow righty Matt Manning (4-7, 5.80 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -115 road favorite and the Tigers a +105 home dog. Pros have gotten down on Boston, steaming the Red Sox up from -115 to -120. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. The total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 9. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from right to left. 6:40 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (1-2) at Tampa Bay Rays (3-0)Oakland just picked up their first win of the season yesterday, beating Philadelphia 4-1 as juicy 195 road dogs. On the flip side, the Rays just swept the lowly Orioles, finishing off the series with an 8-0 win as -185 home favorites on Sunday. In tonight's series opener, the Athletics hand the ball to righty Paul Blackburn (1-4, 5.87 ERA) while the Rays turn to fellow righty Luis Patino (5-3, 4.31 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -200 home favorite and Oakland a +175 road dog. Pros are laying the chalk with the red-hot Rays, steaming Tampa Bay up from -200 to -220. Non-division home favorites are 505-319 (62%) dating back to last season. This total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling some sharp under money and a possible fall down to 8. Historically, domes and closed roof stadiums have provided a boost to unders due to the perfect pitching conditions and the ball doesn't travel as well indoors.
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Post by Makers on Apr 12, 2022 5:18:34 GMT -5
1:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (1-3) at Detroit Tigers (2-2)The Tigers took Monday's series opener 3-1, cashing as + 115 home dogs. In this afternoon's rematch, Boston hands the ball to veteran lefty Rich Hill (7-8, 3.86 ERA in 2021) and Detroit counters with fellow lefty Tyler Alexander (2-4, 3.81 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -130 road favorite and the Tigers a +110 home dog. The public is hammering Boston to bounce back with a win. But wiseguys have grabbed Detroit at another plus money payout, dropping the Tigers from +110 to +105. Detroit has value as a home dog with a high total. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here. The total opened at 9.5 with the under juiced to -120. We've seen a few shops drop to 9. This signals pro money on the under. The forecast calls for low 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from dead center. 4:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (2-2) at Cincinnati Reds (2-2)Both of these Interleague foes just earned a split in their opening season series. The Guardians have ripped off two wins against the Royals after dropping the first two games, most recently earning a 10-7 victory yesterday as -115 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Reds are coming off a 6-3 win over the Braves, cashing as hefty +160 road dogs. In this afternoon's series opener, Cleveland sends out ace righty Shane Bieber (0-0, 1.93 ERA in 2022) while Cincinnati answers with veteran righty Tyler Mahle (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as a short -120 home favorite and the Guardians a +110 road dog. Pros have hammered the Guardians, flipping Cleveland from a +110 road dog into a -115 road favorite. Essentially, Cleveland is receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. The total opened at 8.5 and several shops are juiced up -120 to the under, signaling under liability and a possible fall to 8. The forecast calls for high 60s with 6-10 MPH winds blowing in from right center. 9:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (3-1) at Arizona Diamondbacks (1-3)These Interleague opponents have gotten off to polar opposite starts this season. The Astros just took three of four from the Angels, including a 4-1 win their last time out as -115 road favorites. On the flip side, the Diamondbacks just dropped three of four to the Padres, most recently losing 10-5 as +140 home dogs. In tonight's series opener, Houston hands the ball to Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA in 2021) while Arizona counters with veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner (0-0, 3.00 ERA in 2022). This line opened with Houston listed as a -120 road favorite and Arizona a 100 home dog. Pros have pounced on Houston as the short opening price, steaming the Astros up from -120 to -145. The Astros have value as an Interleague favorite with a line move in their favor. The total opened at 9.5 and the under is juiced to -120, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 9. The forecast calls for cooler temperatures in the high 60s with winds blowing in at 10-15 MPH hour at Chase Field.
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Post by Makers on Apr 13, 2022 5:34:57 GMT -5
3:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (4-1) at Arizona Diamondbacks (1-4)
The Astros took Tuesday's Interleague Series opener 2-1, squeaking by as -145 road favorites. In this afternoon's remarch, Houston sends out lefty Framber Valdez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) while Arizona turns to righty Merrill Kelly (0-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -150 road favorite and the Diamondbacks a +130 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the chalk with the Astros, driving Houston up from -150 to -160. The Astros have value as an Interleague favorite with a line move in their favor. Houston is +11 in run differential this season. Arizona is -10. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a smart money lean to a higher scoring game. The forecast calls for mid 70s with the 5-10 MPH winds out to right if the roof remains open at Chase Field.
3:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (4-2) at San Francisco Giants (3-2)
These NL West rivals have split the first two games of the series. The Padres took the opener 4-2, cashing as +140 road dogs. Then the Giants bounced back with a 13-2 win on Tuesday, taking care of business as -120 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, San Diego hands the ball to lefty Sean Manaea (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and San Francisco counters with righty ace Logan Webb (0-0, 1.50 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a short -118 home favorite and the Padres a +108 road dog. Pros have steamed San Francisco, driving the Giants up from -118 to -130. The Giants have value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). San Francisco is +10 in run differential. San Diego is even at 0. We could be looking at a lower scoring game in this one, as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -125, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 7. Unders are 42-26 (62%) so far this season.
7:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (3-2) at New York Yankees (3-2)
After the Jays stole the series opener 3-0 as +105 road dogs, the Yankees bounced back with a 4-0 win yesterday, cashing as -125 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Toronto turns to righty Jose Berrios (0-0, 108.00 ERA) while New York taps righty ace Gerrit Cole (0-0, 6.75 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a modest -120 home favorite and the Jays a +100 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But pros have sided with the Bronx Bombers at home, steaming New York up from -120 to -145. The Yankees are +3 in run differential. The Jays are -4. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115 at some shops, signaling some sneaky wiseguy action on a higher scoring game. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to left.
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Post by Makers on Apr 14, 2022 6:00:40 GMT -5
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (3-3) at Texas Rangers (1-4)
The Angels just swept the Marlins in a two-game set and are coming off a 4-3 win as -145 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rangers just got swept by the Rockies in a two-game series, falling 4-1 to Colorado as -150 home favorites their last time out. In tonight's series opener, Los Angeles hands the ball to two-way righty phenom Shohei Ohtani (0-1, 1.93 ERA) and Texas counters with fellow righty Dane Dunning (0-0, 5.40 ERA). This line opened with the Angels listed as a -130 road favorite and the Rangers a +120 home dog. Pros have pounced on Ohtani at the short chalk price, steaming Los Angeles up closer to -140. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -120, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 8.5. Unders are 50-32 (61%) on the season. The under is 5-1 in Angels games this season. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from right at Globe Life Field.
8:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (3-2) at Colorado Rockies (4-1)
The Cubs are coming off a 6-2 loss to the Pirates, losing as -125 road favorites. On the other hand, the Rockies have won four straight and just beat the Rangers 4-1, cashing as +140 road dogs. In tonight's series opener, Chicago taps lefty Justin Steele (1-0, 0.00 ERA) while Colorado trots out fellow lefty Kyle Freeland (0-1, 12.27 ERA). This line opened with Colorado listed as a -140 home favorite and Chicavo a +120 road dog. This public is riding the hot hand and laying the chalk with the Rockies at home. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Rockies fall from -140 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Cubs (+120 to +105). Chicago has buy-low value as a road dog with a high total. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 11.5 to 11 at several shops. The forecast calls for high 50s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from left.
10:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (2-4) at Los Angeles Dodgers (3-2)
The Reds just got swept by the Guardians in a brief two-game series, falling 7-3 on Wednesday as -125 home favorites. On the flip side, the Dodgers just swept the Twins in a two-game series, blanking Minnesota 7-0 as -200 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Cincinnati hands the ball to righty Luis Cessa (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Los Angeles counters with righty ace Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a hefty -225 home favorite and the Reds a +200 road dog. Pros aren't concerned by the big price and have laid the chalk with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -225 to -250. Non-division home favorites are 512-325 (61%) since the start of last season. The Dodgers are +8 in run differential. The Reds are -5. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability and a possible rise from 8.5 to 9. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to right center at Dodger Stadium.
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