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Post by Makers on Apr 15, 2022 5:17:32 GMT -5
1:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (2-4) at New York Mets (5-2)
Both of these National League non-division opponents are coming off wins. The Diamondbacks just upset the Astros 3-2 in extra innings, cashing as a +145 home dog. On the flip side, the Mets just won two in a row against the Phillies, posting a 9-6 win as -110 home favorites their last time out. In this early afternoon series opener, Arizona hands the ball to righty Zach Davies (0-0, 3.60 ERA) while New York start fellow veteran righty Chris Bassitt (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a hefty -195 favorite in their home opener and the Snakes a +180 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big price and have steamed the Mets, driving New York up from -195 to -220. When both teams are coming off a day off, which is the case here, the favorite is 62% since 2020. The Mets are 4-1 as a favorite this season. The Snakes are 2-4 as a dog. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some liability on a lower-scoring game. Unders are 56-36 (61%) this season. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with the Snakes 5-1 to the under and the Mets 4-2-1 to the under.
2:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (2-4) at Boston Red Sox (3-3)
These American League non-division foes are trending in opposite directions as of late. The Twins just got swept by the Dodgers in a brief two game series, most recently falling to Los Angeles 7-0 as +170 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox just won two in a row against the Tigers, posting a 9-7 win their last time out as -135 road favorites. In this afternoon's series opener, Minnesota gives the ball to righty Joe Ryan (0-1, 4.50 ERA) while Boston counters with fellow righty Nick Pivetta (0-1, 6.35 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Twins a +105 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Boston in their home opener, steaming the Red Sox up from -115 to -125. The Red Sox have value as a non-division home favorite (61% since the start of last season). Boston is 2-1 as a favorite this season. Minnesota is 0-2 as a dog. Wiseguys have also hit this under, dropping the total from 10.5 to 10. The under 10 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further fall down to 9.5. The Red Sox are 4-2 to the under this season. Minnesota is 4-1-1 to the under. If the total is 8.5 or higher, the under improves to 45-23 (66%).
6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (3-4) at Miami Marlins (2-4)
The Marlins took last night's series opener 4-3, cashing as modest -115 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia sends out righty Zach Eflin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Miami trots out fellow righty Pablo Lopez (0-0, 1.80 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a short -110 home favorite and Philadelphia a +100 road dog. The public is grabbing the even money with the Phillies, yet we've seen this line inch further toward Miami (-110 to -120). This signals sharp fade the trendy dog action laying the chalk with the contrarian favorite Marlins. Miami has value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). Low totals benefit favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Marlins are 1-0 as a favorite this season. The Phillies are 0-2 as a dog. The total opened at 8 and has fallen to 7.5 at some shops, signaling under liability. The Phillies are 4-2-1 to the under this season. The Marlins are 5-1 to the under. If the retractable roof stays closed, the forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from right center, which aids the under.
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Post by Makers on Apr 17, 2022 7:33:15 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
The Hawks (45-39 SU, 39-45 ATS) won a pair of play-in games to earn the 8-seed, beating the Hornets 132-103 as 5.5-point home favorites and edging the Cavaliers 107-101 as 2.5-point road favorites. Now the Hawks fave division rival and the 1-seed Heat (53-29 SU, 46-35-1 ATS), who finished the regular season with a 6-1 record. This line opened with Miami listed as a 6-point home favorite. Respected money seems to be leaning with the Heat, who have ticked up from -6 to -6.5. Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor are 7-1 ATS this postseason and 59-43 ATS (58%) over the past three postseasons. Miami enjoys a rest advantage, having last played a week ago while Atlanta played a pair of high intensity play-in games. Respected money has also hit this over, steaming the total up from 216 to 219. Miami was one of the best "over" teams in the regular season, going 48-33 to the over. Atlanta is 43-41 to the over. The Heat are -375 favorites to win the series. The Hawks are 300.
3:30 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics
The Nets (45-38 SU, 32-48-3 ATS) enter as the 7-seed after beating the Cavaliers 115-108 in the play-in game, although Brooklyn failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Celtics (51-31 SU, 43-47-2 ATS) enter as a well-rested 2-seed who finished 4-1 down the stretch in the regular season. This line opened with Boston listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, we've seen Boston creep up from -3 to -4, signaling pro money laying the points with the Celtics at home. Favorites are 8-2 ATS (80%) so far this postseason. Respected money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 226.5 to 224. Unders are 7-3 (70%) this postseason. The Celtics have value on the series price. Boston is only getting 37% of bets to win the series at BetMGM, yet they've moved from -125 to -140. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Boston to advance.
6:30 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
The Bulls (46-36 SU, 42-39-1 ATS) enter as the 6-seed and stumbled down the stretch, going just 1-4 over their last five games. On the flip side, the Bucks (51-31 SU, 39-43 ATS) are the 3-seed and went 3-1 over their final four games. This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. We've seen the Bucks tick up from -9.5 to -10, signaling some liability on the Bucks laying the points. Big playoff favorites of 8-point or more are 170-131 ATS (57%) over the past 15 seasons. We've also seen some sneaky over money show up, increasing the total from 229 to 229.5. Milwaukee got hammered by wiseguys on the series price, receiving only 47% of bets but 92% of money and moving from -700 to -1110. One way to bet Milwaukee and avoid the super-high chalk price: play the Bucks series spread at -2.5 games (-180). This means Milwaukee would need to sweep 4-0 or win 4-1.
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Post by Makers on Apr 18, 2022 5:28:17 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers lead this series 1-0 after earning a 131-111 victory in Game 1, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia opened as a 6.5-point home favorite. Both pros and Joes seem to be laying the points with the 76ers, as we've seen Philadelphia tick up from -6.5 to -7.5. Playoff favorites are 10-4 ATS (71%) this postseason. Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor are 8-3 ATS (73%) this postseason and 60-45 ATS (57%) over the past three postseasons. The Raptors will be missing several key players due to injury in this game, including Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr. and Thaddeus Young. Respected money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 220.5 to 217.5. Unders are 10-4 (71%) this postseason. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 7-2 (78%) this postseason. Leading 1-0, the 76ers are now -450 favorites to win the series at BetMGM. The Raptors are 333.
8:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
The Jazz lead this series 1-0 after posting a 99-93 victory in the series opener, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Utah opened as a 5-point road favorite. The public is relatively split, yet we've seen the Jazz inch up from -5 to -5.5. This signals respected money laying the points with the Jazz. Utah has value as a playoff favorite (10-4 ATS, 71% this postseason) and a favorite with a line move in their favor (8-3 ATS, 73%). Once again, Dallas is expected to miss superstar guard Luka Doncic with a calf injury. Pros have also quietly hit this over. The total opened at an incredibly low 204 and has gotten steamed up to 205.5. Leading 1-0, the Jazz are now -750 favorites to win the series. The Mavs are 500 dogs.
10 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors the series 1-0 after securing a 123-107 win in Game 1, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Golden State opened as a 7-point home favorite. The public is back on the Warriors' train after their resounding series opening victory. However, despite lopsided support in favor of Golden State, this line hasn't budged off the opener of 7. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Nuggets, with pros grabbing the points with Denver and books reluctant to hand out a a better number to contrarian Nuggets bettors. We've also seen a slight line freeze to the under, with the total remaining as 224.5 despite roughly two-thirds of bets sweating the over. Some shops are also juicing up the under 224.5 to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 224. Leading 1-0, the Warriors are now -500 favorites to win the series. The Nuggets are 375 dogs.
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Post by Makers on Apr 20, 2022 7:26:30 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics
The Celtics lead this series 1-0 after earning a thrilling 115-114 win at the buzzer in Game 1, although Boston failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Celtics opened as 3.5-point home favorites. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with Brooklyn. However, despite roughly three out of four bets taking the points, we've seen the line remain frozen at Boston -3.5. This signals a sharp line freeze on Boston, with oddsmakers refusing to drop the line despite heavy betting on the Nets. Boston has value as a contrarian home favorite in a "Fade the Trendy Dog" situational spot. Favorites are 14-6 ATS (70%) this postseason. We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 228 to 226. Unders are 13-7 (65%) this postseason. If the total falls, the under is 9-4 (69%). Leading 1-0, the Celtics are -225 favorites to win the series. The Nets are +180.
8 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
The 76ers lead this series 2-0 after winning both of the first two games at home. Philadelphia took the opener 131-111, covering as 5-point home favorites, and then won the second game 112-97, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Toronto. In tonight's rematch, the 76ers opened as 2-point road favorites. The public is hammering Philadelphia on the short chalk spread. However, this line has remained frozen at 2 and even fallen to 1.5 at some shops, signaling sharp reverse line movement on Toronto plus the points. The Raptors match a wiseguy system focusing on desperate teams down 2-0 coming home. These teams have performed well on the first quarter spread (Raptors are -0.5 for the first quarter). Typically these teams down 2-0 come out blazing in the first quarter. Pros have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 214.5 to 216.5. The 76ers Matisse Thybulle will miss this game due to Canada's vaccination rules. Leading 2-0, Philadelphia is -1600 to win the series. Toronto is +850.
9:30 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
The defending champion Bucks lead this series 1-0 after taking the opener 93-86, although Milwaukee failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Milwaukee opened as a 10-point home favorite. The recency-biased public just watched the Bulls cover the double-digit spread in the opener and are once again grabbing the points with Chicago. However, this line hasn't budged off Bucks -10. This indicate some wiseguy line freeze action on Milwaukee laying the points. Double digit playoff favorites are 73-55 ATS (57%) over the past 15 postseasons. The total has remained stagnant at 225, although some shops have briefly touched 224.5, signaling a slight sharp lean to the under. Leading 1-0, Milwaukee is now a -3000 favorite to win the series. Chicago is +1200. The Bucks could be worth a look to sweep the series, which carries an enticing +175 price tag.
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Post by Makers on Apr 21, 2022 5:13:54 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota TimberwolvesThis series is tied 1-1. The Timberwolves stole the opener 130-117, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. Then the Grizzlies bounced back with a 124-96 blowout win in Game 2, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Minnesota. This line opened with the Grizzlies listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The recency biased public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Grizzlies, especially after they just earned a blowout win in Game 2. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from Grizzlies -2 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros grabbing the points with Minnesota. Sharps have also hit this under, dropping the total from 238 to 236.5. Playoffs unders are 16-7 (70%) so far this postseason. If the total falls at least a half point, the under is 10-4 (71%). With the series tied 1-1, the Grizzlies are -225 favorites to win the series. The Timberwolves are +190 dogs. 9 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Utah JazzThis series is tied 1-1. The Jazz took the opener 99-93, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. Then the Mavericks posted a 110-104 victory in Game 2, winning outright as 5-point home dogs. Now the series shifts to Utah. Tonight's rematch opened with the Jazz listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Respected money seems to think this line is a bit high and grabbed Dallas with the points, dropping the line from 7.5 to 7. Several shops briefly touched 6.5 at times, signaling all liability on the side of Dallas. Pros have also hit this over, steaming the total up from 209 to 210.5. With the series tied 1-1, the Jazz are -225 favorites to advance. The Mavericks are +185 dogs to win the series. Once again, Mavs star Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game with a calf strain. But Doncic could return before the series is over. 10 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Denver NuggetsThe Warriors hold a commanding 2-0 lead in this series. Golden State won the opener 123-107, covering as 6.5-point favorites, and then won 126-106 in Game 2, covering as 7-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Denver. Tonight's rematch opener with Golden State listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so low and they're hammering the Warriors minus the short chalk price. However, despite this lopsided betting, the line hasn't budged off Warriors -2. In fact, it's even dropped to 1.5 at times. This signals a sharp line freeze on Denver, with pros grabbing the points with the contrarian home dog. Denver also matches the wiseguy situational edge on desperate teams going down 0-2 and then coming home. These teams have historically come out guns blazing and covered the first quarter and first half lines at a decent rate. The Nuggets are a virtual pick'em or 1-point favorite for both angles. Pros have also leaned under here, dropping the total from 225 to 224. When the total is 220 or more, the under is 12-5 (71%) this postseason. With the Warriors leading 2-0, Golden State is now -1400 to win the series. Denver is +800.
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Post by Makers on Apr 22, 2022 7:01:33 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Atlanta HawksThe Heat lead this best-of-seven series 2-0. Miami took the opener 115-91, covering as 6.5-point home favorites, and then won again 115-105 in Game 2, covering as 8-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Atlanta. This line opened with Miami listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window as fast as they can to lay the short chalk with Miami. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from Heat -2 to -1.5. Some shops even touched 1. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Hawks, who are also super contrarian in a heavily bet desperation spot. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 220 to 221.5. This steam to the over is notable because the under is 2-0 this series, yet pros seem to like this one to go over. Leading 2-0, the Heat are -1600 on the series price. The Hawks are +900. 8:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago BullsThis series is tied 1-1. The Bucks won the opener 93-86 but failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. Then the Bulls bounced back with a big 114-110 win in Game 2, winning outright as 10-point road dogs. Now the series shifts to Chicago. Tonight's rematch opened with Milwaukee listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. We've seen this line climb to Bucks -2.5, signaling wiseguy money laying the points with the Bucks. Keep in mind, Milwaukee will miss star forward Khris Middleton, who is out with a knee injury. Playoff favorites are 18-8 ATS (69%) this postseason, including 21-5 (81%) straight up. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 223.5 to 222.5. Unders are 17-9 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 11-6 (65%). With the series tied 1-1, the Bucks are -250 favorites to advance. The Bulls are +190 underdogs. 9:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at New Orleans PelicansThis series is tied 1-1. The Suns took care of business in the opener, winning 110-99 and covering as 10-point home favorites. Then the Pelicans stole Game 2 with a 125-114 victory, winning outright as 9.5-point road dogs. Now the series shifts to New Orleans. In tonight's rematch, the Suns opened as a 1-point road favorite. T he public is hammering Phoenix laying the short spread. This lopsided betting pushed Phoenix up to -2.5. Since that time, we've seen a steady diet of Pelicans buyback at +2.5 and +2, dropping the line back down to 1.5. Essentially, we are seeing some sharp reverse line movement and line freeze liability on the Pelicans plus the points. Keep in mind, the Suns will be without star guard Devin Booker, who is out with a hamstring injury. The total has gotten steamed down from 219.5 to 216, signaling sharp under support. Tied 1-1, the Suns are -300 favorites to win the series. The Pelicans are +240.
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Post by Makers on Apr 23, 2022 6:20:16 GMT -5
2 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
The 76ers lead this series 3-0 and can sweep their way into the second round with a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a 104-101 victory in Game 3, covering as 2-point road favorites thanks to a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Joel Embiid. In this early afternoon rematch, the 76ers opened as 3-point road favorites. The public has seen enough and is rushing to the window to lay the points with Philadelphia. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged. It has even briefly dipped to 2.5. at some shops. This signals a sharp line freeze on Toronto plus the points with their season on the line. We've also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 214 to 213.5. Unders are 19-10 (66%) this postseason. The under is 2-1 in this series. Leading 3-0, the 76ers are -10000 favorites to win the series. The Raptors are +2000.
4:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
The Mavericks lead this series 2-1 after posting a 126-118 victory in Game 3, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs. In today's rematch, the Jazz opened as 4.5-point home favorites. The public is down on Utah and rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Dallas. However, we've actually seen the line move further to Utah (-4.5 to -6) despite the Jazz being the unpopular play. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Utah, with pros fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian favorite Jazz. Favorites are 20-9 ATS (69%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 13-4 ATS (76%). Respected money has also hit the over, raising the total from 211 to 212.5. The over is 2-1 this series. Leading 2-1, the Mavs are -190 favorites to win the series. The Jazz are +155 dogs. Keep an eye on the status of Mavs' superstar Luka Doncic. He has been upgraded to questionable and "optimistic" about playing today. If he plays, expect this line to fall back to Dallas.
7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets
The Celtics lead this series 2-0 after storming back from a 17-point deficit in Game 2, winning 114-107 and covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Brooklyn. This line opened with the Nets listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public isn't quitting the Nets and expects a bounce back performance at home. However, despite receiving heavy public support, Brooklyn has fallen from -3.5 to -3. This indicates some sharp wiseguy support for Boston plus the points. This move was also tied to Boston big man Robert Williams being upgraded to questionable for the game. Pro money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 223.5 to 222.5. Leading 2-0, Boston is a -350 favorite to win the series. Brooklyn is +260. The Celtics are now the favorite to win the Eastern Conference at +210. Boston has the third-best odds to win the NBA Title at +500.
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Post by Makers on Apr 24, 2022 5:39:56 GMT -5
3:30 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
The Warriors lead this series 3-0 and can finish off the sweep with a victory tonight. Golden State is coming off a 118-113 win in Game 3, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Warriors listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes both seem to be leaning Golden State as we've seen the Warriors tick up from -3.5 to -4.5. Favorites are 20-13 ATS (61%) this season. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 13-6 ATS (69%). Wiseguys have also quietly sided with the over, steaming the total up from 224 to 225. The over is a perfect 3-0 this series. Leading 3-0, the Warriors are -10000 favorites to win the series. The Nuggets are +2500. Golden State is now the favorite to win the Western Conference (+120) and the NBA Title (+280).
7 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
The Heat lead this series 2-1. Atlanta is coming off a 111-110 victory in Game 3 to post their first win of the series, winning outright as 2-point home dogs. In tonight's rematch, Miami opened as a short 1.5-point road favorite. We've seen Miami rise from -1.5 to -2, signaling some sharp support in their favor. Playoff favorites are 24-9 (73%) straight up this postseason. Miami is -130 on the moneyline. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 221.5 to 221. The under is a perfect 3-0 this series. Leading 2-1, the Heat are -650 favorites to win the series. The Hawks are +450 dogs. Miami has the 3rd-best odds to win the Eastern Conference at +325. The Heat are +850 to win the NBA Title.
9:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns lead the series 2-1 after securing a 114-11 win in Game 3, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Phoenix opened as a 3-point road favorite. Despite the Suns missing star guard Devin Booker due to injury, the public is still rushing to the window to lay the short spread with Phoenix. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Phoenix fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on New Orleans, with pros grabbing the points with the contrarian home dog. Pros have also targeted the under, dropping the total from 216.5 to 215.5. Unders are 22-11 (67%) this postseason. If the total falls at least a half point, the under is 14-8 (64%). Leading 2-1, Phoenix is -650 to win the series. New Orleans is +450.
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Post by Makers on Apr 25, 2022 5:22:10 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets
The Celtics lead this series 3-0. Boston can eliminate Brooklyn with a win and punch their ticket to the next round. The Celtics are coming off a 109-103 win in Game 3, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Nets opened as a short 2-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to back. But pros have sided with the red-hot Celtics, dropping Boston from +2 to +1. We've also seen a slight wiseguy lean to the under, with several books hinting at a drop from 220 to 219.5. Unders are 24-13 (65%) this postseason. The under is 2-1 this series. Leading 3-0, the Celtics are -5000 favorites to win the series. The Nets are 1400. Boston is now the favorite to win the Eastern Conference at + 175. The Celtics have the second-best odds to win the NBA Title at +400. Ben Simmons was expected to make his Nets debut tonight but he has since been ruled out with back soreness.
8 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers lead this series 3-1. The Raptors are coming off a 110-102 victory in Game 3, avoiding elimination and winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Now the series shifts back to Philadelphia. This line opened with the 76ers listed as an 8-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 8 to 7.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Raptors. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 210 to 209.5. Unders that fall at least a half point are 15-9 (63%) this postseason. The under is 3-1 this series. Leading 3-1, the 76ers are -10000 favorites to win the series. The Raptors are +2000 underdogs. Philadelphia is +450 to win the Eastern Conference and +1100 to win the NBA Title.
9:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
This series is tied 2-2. The Jazz just stole Game 4 with a last-second 100-99 win, although Utah failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts back to Dallas. This pivotal Game 5 line opened with the Mavericks listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window as fast as they can to lay the short chalk with Doncic and the Mavs at home. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 3.5 to 3. This signals respected money grabbing the points with Utah. Wiseguys have also hit the over here, driving up the low total from 212 to 213. With the series tied 2-2, the Mavericks are -135 favorites to advance. The Jazz are +10 dogs.
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Post by Makers on Apr 28, 2022 5:10:10 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference first round. The 76ers once held a commanding 3-0 series lead but have since dropped two straight and now only lead 3-2. No team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead in NBA history. Now the series shifts back to Toronto. This line opened with the 76ers listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. This line hasn't budged off 1.5, signaling some fishy support for the home dog Raptors, who have won two straight and hold all the momentum. 76ers guard Matisse Thybulle will miss this game due to Canada's COVID rules. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from a low 209.5 to 210.5. The under is 4-1 this series. Leading 3-2, Philadelphia is a -650 favorite to win the series. Toronto is a +450 dog
7:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
This is Game 6 of the Western Conference first round. The Suns lead the series 3-2 after posting a 112-97 win in Game 5, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Phoenix can eliminate New Orleans with a victory tonight. This line opened with the Suns listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Suns. However, we've actually seen this line fall from 2.5 to 2. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Pelicans, with wiseguys grabbing the points with the home dog. We've also seen some sharp under liability, with some shops falling from 215 to 214 despite a majority of bets taking the over. Unders are 31-14 (69%) this postseason. This would also match a late series under trend, with tired legs leading to lower scoring games at the tail end of series. Leading 3-2, the Suns are -700 favorites to win the series. The Pelicans are +500 dogs.
10 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
This is Game 6 of the Western Conference first round. The Mavericks lead the series 3-2 and can eliminate the Jazz with a victory tonight. Dallas is coming off a 102-77 blowout win in Game 5, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Now the series shifts back to Utah. This line opened with Utah listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Early on, there were rumblings about Donovan Mitchell missing this game with a quad injury. Following these reports, the Mavericks flipped to a 2.5-point road favorite. But then we saw Mitchell get upgraded to probable, which dropped the line back down to a pick'em or Jazz -1 at some shops. The public is hammering the Mavs, giving Utah contrarian value with late line movement in their favor. We could also be looking at a low scoring game here. The total opened at 210.5 and has fallen to 209.5. Unders that fall at least a half point are 18-9 (67%) this postseason. Leading 3-2, Dallas is a -700 favorite on the series price. Utah is +500.
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Post by Makers on May 1, 2022 5:34:20 GMT -5
To Win NBA TitleWarriors +300 Suns +320 Celtics +375 Heat +500 Bucks +700 Grizzlies +1300 Mavericks +2000 76ers +2500 To win Eastern ConferenceCeltics +140 Heat +160 Bucks +360 76ers +1000 To Win Western ConferenceSuns +125 Warriors +150 Grizzlies +600 Mavericks +700
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Post by Makers on May 1, 2022 5:36:29 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks brushed aside the Bulls 4-1 in the first round while the Celtics are coming off a 4-0 sweep of the Nets. This game opened with Boston listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know whether to grab the points or lay them. However, despite the split ticket count we've seen the line fall from 5 to 4.5, signaling some respected money backing Milwaukee as a road dog. We've also seen wiseguys hit the under, dropping the total from 218.5 to 217.5. Unders are 33-16 (67%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 19-9 (68%). The under went a perfect 5-0 in the Bucks-Bulls first round series. The Celtics-Nets series went 2-2 to the total. The Celtics are -225 favorites to win this series. The Bucks are +175. Milwaukee is expected to miss star forward Khris Middleton for the entire series.
3:30 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
This is Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Warriors took down the Nuggets 4-1 in the first round while the Grizzlies edged the Timberwolves 4-2. This line opened with Golden State listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window as fast as they can to lay the short chalk with the Warriors. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has refused to budge off 2.5. Some shops have even briefly touched 2 or even 1.5 at times. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on Memphis, with pros grabbing the points with the short contrarian home dog. Sharps have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 218 to 220.5. The over went 4-1 in the Warriors-Nuggets series. The under went 4-2 in the Grizzlies-Timberwolves series. The Warriors are -275 favorites to win the series. The Grizzlies are +210 dogs.
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Post by Makers on May 2, 2022 5:16:46 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
This is Game 1 of the Easter Conference Semifinals. The 76ers edged the Raptors 4-2 in the first round while the Heat brushed aside the Hawks 4-1. This game opened with the Heat listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Following the news that Philadelphia star big man Joel Embiid would miss this game with an orbital fracture, we saw the Heat get steamed up to -7.5. Some shops got as high as -8 or -8.5 and then some 76ers buyback brought the line back down to 7.5. Favorites are 29-22 ATS (57%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 18-9 ATS (67%). We've also seen a slight wiseguy lean to the over, with the total rising from 208 to 208.5. The Heat are -350 favorites to win the series. The 76ers are +260. Embiid is hoping to return at some point later in the series. The Heat have several injuries of their own to monitor for this game. Kyle Lowry is out with a hamstring injury while Jimmy Butler is questionable with a knee injury.
10 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
This is Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Mavericks took down the Jazz 4-2 in the first round while the Suns beat the Pelicans 4-2. This line opened with Phoenix listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to back. However, despite the deadlocked percentages we've seen the Suns fall from -6 to -5.5, signaling wiseguy money grabbing the points with road dog Dallas. Pros have also hit the over in this game, steaming the total up from 213 to 214.5. The Suns are -300 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are +240 dogs.
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Post by Makers on May 3, 2022 5:59:04 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on May 3, 2022 6:05:48 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
This is Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks lead 1-0 after stealing the series opener 101-89, winning outright as a 5-point road dog. In tonight's rematch, the Celtics opened as a 4-point home favorite. The public is happy to grab the Bucks plus the points, who looked like the far better team in Game 1. However, despite a majority of bets backing trendy dog Milwaukee, we've seen Boston move from -4 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home team, with wiseguys fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian favorite Celtics in a bounce-back spot. Playoff favorites are 31-22 ATS (59%) this postseason. We've also seen a slight wiseguy lean to the over, with some books rising from 215 to 215.5. Leading 1-0, the Bucks are -125 favorites to win the series. The Celtics are +105 dogs. Boston entered the series as a -200 favorite.
9:30 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
This is Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Warriors lead 1-0 after taking the opener 117-116, although Golden State failed to cover as 2.5-point road favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Warriors opened as a 2-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk price with the Warriors. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged off 2. In fact, it has even dipped to 1.5 briefly at some shops. Reading between the lines, all sharp movement and liability appears to be on home dog Memphis plus the points in the form of a line freeze and reverse line movement. We could be looking at another high scoring game here, as the total has been steamed up from 226 to 227.5. Leading 1-0, the Warriors are -450 favorites to win the series. The Grizzlies are +350 dogs.
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