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Post by Makers on Oct 6, 2020 5:13:31 GMT -5
Monday Night Football was a godsend for public bettors and a nightmare for sportsbooks as popular favorites went a perfect 2-0 ATS. In the early game, the Chiefs (-11) beat the Patriots 26-10 to move to 4-0 on the season. New England was covering for much of the game, but then Jarrett Stidham threw a late pick-six to give Chiefs bettors the cover. In the late game, the Packers (-5) throttled the Falcons 30-16 to also move to 4-0. Atlanta was actually a very sharp play, moving from + 7.5 to + 5. But it was all for naught as Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdowns and lit up the Falcons defense. The public went 2-0 on MNF sides as the Chiefs and Packers received roughly two-thirds of spread bets. However, it wasn't a total loss for sharps and contrarians as unders went a perfect 2-0. Both unders were blueprint plays for wiseguys. The Pats-Chiefs total fell from 50 to 48.5 and landed on 36. The Falcons-Packers total fell from 58.5 to 56.5 and landed on 46. It also featured 15 MPH winds at Lambeau. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 56% over the past decade. In the MLB playoffs, we saw a pair of sharp plays cash yesterday as the Astros (+ 130 to + 111) beat the Athletics 10-5 and the Yankees (-140 to -158) beat the Rays 9-3. Bettors should keep in mind a profitable strategy for low-total games. When the total is 7 or less in the playoffs, the over is roughly 57% over the past decade. We saw it cash easily in last night's Yankees-Rays game. 9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat
This is Game 4 of the NBA Finals. After dropping the first two games of the series, the Heat clawed back with a gutsy 115-104 win in Game 3, winning outright as 9.5-point dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7.5-point favorite. A slight majority of bets are laying the points, expecting a big bounce back win and cover by the Lakers. However, we've seen this line remain frozen and the Heat + 7.5 is being juiced up to -115, signaling liability on the dog. Some books have even dropped to 7. Essentially all smart money has been leaning with the Heat and the points. Miami is expected to be without Goran Dragic (foot) for this game but could see Bam Adebayo (shoulder) back in the lineup. We've also seen some sharp action hit the under, dropping total from 219.5 to 218.5. The under is 2-1 so far this series. Leading 2-1, the Lakers are -1667 favorites (94.3%) to win the series at BetMGM. The Heat are + 850 underdogs.
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Post by Makers on Oct 7, 2020 6:44:28 GMT -5
Smart money is flowing for NFL Week 5. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
These NFC South rivals are trending in opposite directions. After dropping their first two games to start the season, the Panthers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) have rebounded to win two straight, most recently beating the Cardinals 31-21 as 3-point dogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) have been a disaster this season. Atlanta is one of only four winless teams this season, along with the 0-4 Jets, Texans and Giants. The Falcons are coming off a 30-156 loss to the Packers as 5-point dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. We've seen both Pros and Joes load up on the road dog Panthers, which has dropped this line down from Falcons -3.5 to -2.5. Carolina has value as a road divisional dog with a line move. The Panthers also enjoy a rest advantage as the Falcons are coming off a Monday Night game. Carolina is -3 in point differential this season and the Falcons are -32. Respected money has also come down on the under, dropping the total from 54.5 to 53.5. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team
The Rams (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) took care of business in Week 4, beating the Giants 17-9 but failing to cover as 13.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Washington has been in a tailspin as of late. After posting an impressive come-from-behind win over the Eagles in Week 1, Washington (1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) has dropped three straight games, most recently falling to the Ravens 31-17 last week, pushing as 14-point underdogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. The public has no problem laying the points, but sharps seem to think this line a little high and they've gotten down on Washington as a live home dog, which has dropped the line from 9.5 to 7.5. The Rams are at a disadvantage as a West Coast team going East for an early 1 p.m. ET game. Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns
Both of these AFC foes are riding three-game winning streaks. The Colts (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) just waltzed into Chicago and beat the Bears 19-11, easily covering as 3.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) are riding high after crushing the Cowboys 49-38, winning straight up as 3.5-point dogs. This line opened at a pick'em, which means the oddsmakers view these teams as virtual equals. Despite a slight majority of bets backing the Browns at home, we've seen smart money hammer the Colts, driving this line up to Indianapolis -2.5. Then some buyback hit the Browns at an inflated + 2.5, dropping the line down to 1.5 where it rests now. The Colts have value as a contrarian favorite. Road teams with a line move in their favor (at least a half-point) are 17-10 ATS (63%) this season. The Colts are + 47 in point differential this season and the Browns are -2. Cleveland will miss star running back Nick Chubb with a knee injury. More Week 5 Line moves
Bears + 6 to + 4.5 vs Bucs Jags + 6.5 to + 6 at Texans Jets + 7.5 to + 7 vs Cardinals Eagles-Steelers Under 45 to 44 Bengals-Ravens Under 52 to 51 Vikings + 7.5 to + 7 at Seahawks Chargers-Saints Under 52 to 51
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Post by Makers on Oct 8, 2020 7:26:24 GMT -5
This weekend might be the "windy" weekend of the year in college football. Hurricane Delta is set to make landfall on Friday, bringing strong winds along with it for Saturday's games. According to Bet Labs Sports, when the wind blows at least 10 MPH in a college football game the under is 54.3% since 2005.Here are the top windy unders for Saturday 14 MPH: Pittsburgh-Boston College Under 44 14 MPH: Texas State-Troy Under 63 12 MPH: Arkansas-Auburn Under 47.5 11 MPH: FAU-Southern Miss Under 57 11 MPH: South Carolina-Vanderbilt Under 41.5 10 MPH: Tennessee-Georgia Under 43 10 MPH: Miami-Clemson Under 63 10 MPH: Marshall-WKU Under 44.5 10 MPH: Alabama-Mississippi Under 70.5 Weather is subject to change, so be sure to check the updated wind speeds as we get closer to Saturday. Today, we have a relatively light betting slate headlined by Thursday Night Football and 4 MLB playoff games. 8:20 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago BearsThis Thursday Night showdown features a pair of 3-1 teams. But public perception of these teams is vastly different. One is riding a prolonged win streak and the other is looking to bounce back after their first loss. After dropping the season opener to the Saints, the Buccaneers (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) have rebounded to win three straight games, most recently beating the Chargers 38-31, although Tampa failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Bears (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 19-11 loss to the Colts, failing to cover as 3.5-point dogs. The Bucs are + 28 in point differential this season. Chicago is + 4. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Tom Brady and the streaking Bucs. However, despite three out of four bets rushing to the window to lay the points, we've seen this line fall from Bucs -6 to -3.5. Why would sportsbooks drop the Bucs spread and hand out a better number to the public when they're already betting them to begin with? Because respected money from pro bettors has gotten down hard on the Bears, causing drastic reverse line movement in their favor. Chicago has value as a buy-low home contrarian dog in a heavily bet primetime game. The Bears also have the advantage of being a home team in a Thursday night game, while Tampa must travel on a short week. Injuries could also be a concern for Tampa as several offensive weapons may not play. Chris Godwin is out, Leonard Fournette is doubtful and Mike Evans and Scottie Miller are questionable. In terms of the total, it opened at 45 and has dipped slightly to 44.5. This is notable because roughly two-thirds of bets are taking the over, yet the line has either stayed the same or dipped slightly depending on the book. This signals some liability on the under. The weather at Soldier Field is clear, high 50s and 7-10 MPH winds. Alex Kemp is the lead official. Historically, Kemp has favored home teams (55% ATS) and overs (56%).
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Post by Makers on Oct 9, 2020 5:54:39 GMT -5
9 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers
This is Game 5 of the WNBA Finals. The Lakers lead the series 3-1 and can finish off the Heat and win the NBA Championship with a victory tonight. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7.5-point favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to take. On the one hand, they like the idea of laying points with the Lakers but they're also worried about the Heat getting big points and a possible Tyler Herro backdoor cover. However, despite the bets being split down the middle, we've seen this line dip slightly from Lakers -7.5 to -7. in a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the ticket count is even. So the fact the line moved a half point is likely due to pro money grabbing the hook with the Heat + 7.5. Sharp action has also hit the under, dropping the total from 217 to 216. Unders are 3-1 thus far in the Finals. Unders are 45-34-1 (57%) throughout the playoffs. Leading 3-1, the Lakers are -10000 favorites (99%) to win the title at BetMGM. The Heat are + 2000 to pull off the epic comeback.
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Post by Makers on Oct 10, 2020 6:13:55 GMT -5
In an NBA Finals instant classic, the Miami Heat ( 7.5) upset the Los Angeles Lakers 111-108 to stave off elimination and force a Game 6. The Lakers opened as 7.5-point favorites in the game. Spread bets were split down the middle and the public didn't know who to take. However, a closer look at the line movement showed liability on Miami. The line touched 7 and briefly 6.5 at some shops before settling back at the opener of 7.5. Essentially, from start to finish all movement was toward the Heat. We never saw the line get to 8. By tracking the full line history, it was clear that smart money was leaning Miami, who also cashed 265 on the money.
Joes beat Pros when it came to the total, however. Roughly two-thirds of bets were on the over, yet it fell from 217 to 215.5, signaling wiseguy money on the under. The total landed on 219, giving the public an over win. Unders fall to 3-2 in the NBA Finals but still lead in the playoffs overall 46-35-1 (57%).
The Lakers were -10000 favorites (99%) to win the series at BetMGM heading into last night's game, with the Heat 2000 underdogs. Now that the series is 3-2 Los Angeles, the Lakers are down to -715 favorites (88%) with the Heat 500.
In baseball, the Rays upset the Yankees 2-1 as 135 underdogs to advance to the ALCS. The under 7.5 cashes easily. We are now down to the Final Four in MLB.
Here are the updated World Series odds
Dodgers 150
Rays 250
Astros 375
Braves 400
In the meantime, let's discuss three Saturday matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors.
Noon ET: Virginia Tech vs North Carolina
This ACC showdown features a pair of undefeated teams with clashing styles. Virginia Tech (2-0, ranked 19th) is high scoring, averaging 41.5 points and giving up 27.5 in a pair of wins over NC State and Duke. Meanwhile, North Carolina (2-0, ranked 8th) isn't as flashy offensively but has a stellar defense, averaging 28.5 points but giving up just 14 points in a pair of wins over Syracuse and Boston College. This line opened with UNC listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Despite receiving a slight majority of bets, the Tar Heels have fallen from -5.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Hokies, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Historically, short road dogs 4 or less have covered at roughly a 54% clip over the past decade. Pro money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 60 to 57.5.
Noon ET: Oklahoma vs Texas
One of college football's greatest rivalries renews this afternoon in the Red River Showdown. Oklahoma (1-2) has been one of the most disappointing teams this season. The Sooners are riding a 2-game losing skid, falling to Kansas State 38-35 as a 27.5-point favorite and last week succumbing to Iowa State 37-20 as a 7.5-point favorite. On the flip side, Texas (2-1, ranked 22nd) has a winning record and is ranked, although the Longhorns lost to TCU last week 33-31 as 10.5-point favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 2-point favorite. The public can't believe the Sooners are favored. They see a ranked Texas team getting points and that's all they need to know: Longhorns all day. However, we've actually seen this line move further toward Oklahoma from -2 to -3. Sharps have pounded the Sooners as a buy-low contrarian unranked favorite against a ranked team. All the sharp moves were on Oklahoma at -2 or -2.5 before it reached the key number of 3.
Noon ET: Florida at Texas A&M
This SEC grudge match between ranked teams is one of the most heavily bet early games on Saturday. Florida (2-0, ranked 4th) has looked impressive through two games, outscoring Ole Miss and South Carolina by an average score of 44.5 to 29.5. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (1-1, ranked 21st) is coming off a 52-24 loss to Alabama last week, failing to cover as 18-point underdogs. This line opened with Florida listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the Gators. However, despite receiving roughly three-out-of-four bets, we've seen the Gators fall from -6.5 to -5. This signals heavy pro money buying low on the Aggies as a live home dog.
More Notable Line Moves
NC State 9.5 to 7 at Virginia
Tennessee 14 to 12.5 at Georgia
Miami-Clemson Under 62 to 60.5
FIU -5 to -6 vs MTSU
UL Monroe-Liberty Over 61 to 63
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Post by Makers on Oct 11, 2020 7:30:48 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
These NFC South rivals are trending in opposite directions. After dropping their first two games to start the season, the Panthers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) have rebounded to win two straight, most recently beating the Cardinals 31-21 at 3-point dogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) have been a disaster this season. Atlanta is one of only four winless teams this season, along with the 0-4 Jets, Texans and Giants. The Falcons are coming off a 30-16 loss to the Packers as 5-point dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line fall from Falcons -3.5 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this drop was caused my smart money on the Panthers. Carolina has value as a road divisional dog with a line move. The Panthers also enjoy a rest advantage as the Falcons are coming off a Monday Night game. Carolina is -3 in point differential this season and the Falcons are -32. 1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
This AFC South matchup features two bottom feeder teams looking to turn their seasons around. The Jaguars (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) shocked the Colts in Week 1 but have since fallen on hard times and dropped three straight games since. Most recently, Jacksonville fell to the Bengals 33-25 as 1-point dogs. It's been an even worse season for the Texans (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), who remain winless and just fired longtime Head Coach Bill O'Brien. This line opened with Houston listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. A slight majority of bets are backing the Texans, expected a bump following the coaching change. However, we've seen the Texans fall from -6.5 to -5.5, signaling wiseguy money grabbing the points with the Jags. Jacksonville has value as a road divisional dog. Historically, divisional dogs getting around a touchdown have been a profitable bet as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. The Jags are -22 in point differential. Houston is -46. Bill Vinovich is the head official. Historically, he has favored road teams (57.4% ATS). 4:25 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
This NFC East grudge match features two teams desperate for a win. The Giants (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS) have yet to post a victory this season, although they kept it close last week in a 17-9 loss to the Rams, covering as 13.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, after their miracle comeback win against Atlanta, the Cowboys (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Browns 49-38 as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 9.5-point favorite. The public sees a "get right" spot for Dallas against a bad Giants team. However, despite a slight majority of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall to 8.5. This signals liability on the G-Men getting big points. New York has value as a contrarian road divisional dog with a line move. Also, Craig Wrolstad is the lead official. He has historically favored road teams (56.5% ATS). The Giants are -49 in point differential. The Cowboys are -20. More NFL Line Moves
Raiders + 12 to + 11.5 at Chiefs Washington + 9.5 to + 7 vs Rams Jets + 8 to + 7 vs Cardinals Eagles-Steelers Under 45 to 43.5 Bengals + 13 to + 12 at Ravens Dolphins + 9 to + 7.5 at 49ers If a road team also receives line movement of at least a half-point in their direction (think + 7 to + 6.5 or -3 to -3.5), they improve to 17-11 ATS (60.7%). This is key because it combines the lack of home field advantage with the presence of smart money in the form of line movement. Short road dogs have also been profitable. Road dogs getting 7-points or less are 20-13 ATS (60.6%). Road dogs getting 3-points or less are 8-3 ATS (72.7%).
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Post by Makers on Oct 12, 2020 6:37:11 GMT -5
Despite a smaller than usual 11-game slate, Sunday proved to be another thrilling day of NFL betting. Yesterday's Week 5 favorites went 8-3 straight up and 6-5 ATS. Road teams continued to cash, going 7-4 ATS to improve to 41-34 ATS (55%) on the season. Road teams with a line move in their favor (think + 3 to + 2.5) went 5-2 ATS, improving to 22-13 ATS (63%) on the season. Here are the six favorites covers.
Rams (-7) over Washington 30-10 Texans (-6.5) over Jaguars 30-14 Cardinals (-7) over Jets 30-10 Steelers (-7.5) over Eagles 38-29 Ravens (-12.5) over Bengals 27-3 Browns (-1) over Colts 32-23 The Rams and Cardinals were two of the most popular public favorites of the day, but we actually saw sharp action hit their opponents. More than two thirds of bets were on the Rams, yet we saw Los Angeles fall from -9.5 to -7 against Washington. Similarly, two thirds of bets laid the points with the Cardinals, yet we saw Arizona fall from -8 to -7 against the Jets. Both sharp line moves failed as the chalk rolled easily. However, sharps were able to cash on a number of dogs yesterday, including three outright winners, led by the biggest upset of the day with Las Vegas. Raiders (+ 10.5) beat Chiefs 42-30 Dolphins (+ 7.5) beat 49ers 43-17 Panthers (+ 2.5) beat Falcons 23-16 All three dogs received sharp reverse line movement, which means they took in less than half the tickets but saw the line move in their favor. This is a dead-giveaway that pros were on their side. Vegas fell from + 12.5 to + 10.5 and cashed + 400 on the moneyline. Miami fell from + 9 to + 7.5 and cashed + 320. Carolina fell from + 3.5 to + 2.5 and cashed + 125. Wiseguys also cashed on the Giants (+ 9.5 to + 7.5), who fell to the Cowboys 37-34 but covered the number. Pros also hit with the Vikings (+ 7 to + 6.5), who lost in the final minute to the Seahawks 27-26 on Sunday Night Football but also covered. We also saw some long-awaited regression yesterday in terms of totals. After overs set the world on fire through four weeks, cashing at roughly a 57% clip, we saw unders bounce back and go 6-5 yesterday. It was the first winning Sunday for unders all season.
Today a new week begins with a pair of MLB playoff games along with Monday Night Football. Let's discuss where the smart money is flowing for tonight's NFL Week 5 finale. 7:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints
This Monday Night showdown features a young pup quarterback in Justin Herbert against a grizzled veteran in Drew Brees. After posting a Week 1 win over the Bengals, the Chargers (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS) have dropped three straight, most recently falling to the Bucs 38-31, although they hung on to cover as 7.5-point dogs. The Saints (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) bounced back from a two-game losing skid to beat the Lions 35-29 last week, covering as 3-point favorites. The Chargers are -12 in point differential this season. The Saints are dead even (0). This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning on the Saints at home. This lopsided support pushed New Orleans from -7.5 to -8.5 early in the week. However, over the last 24-hour we've seen heavy sharp action hit the Chargers and the points, dropping this line down to 7. Late money closer to game-time is always the most meaningful because it comes when limits are raised and big bets pour in. Los Angeles has value as a contrarian play in a heavily bet, primetime game. The Chargers are also a road team and road team with a line move in their favor, two profitable trends in this COVID-19 year where we diminished home-field advantage due to limited or no fans in the stands. Also, the lead referee is Clay Martin. Historically, road teams have done well when Martin is the head official (24-10, 61.6%). We've also seen some smart money hit the total. Despite two-thirds of bets taking the over, the total has fallen from 52 to 50. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under. The over is 4-0 in Saints games this season but the under is 3-1 in Chargers games. Star wide receiver Michael Thomas remains out for this game due to disciplinary reasons, not injury.
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Post by Makers on Oct 13, 2020 7:28:55 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
There are only five undefeated teams left in the NFL and this rare Tuesday Night showdown features two of them. The Bills (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-23 win over the Raiders, covering as 3-point road favorites. Buffalo has outscored their opponents by an average score of 31-25 so far this season. Meanwhile, the Titans (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) are playing for the first time in two weeks after several players tested positive for COVID-19. Essentially, Tennessee enjoys a a big rest advantage in this one as they come off a virtual bye week. The Titans are a rare undefeated teams that has yet to cover a spread this season, beating their opponents by an average score of 27-25.
This line opened with the Bills listed as a 3-point road favorite. We've seen a combination of both Pro and Joe money circle the wagons with Buffalo, pushing the Bills up to -3.5. The hook on Tennessee + 3.5 has been hanging out there for a while, almost as if sportsbooks are taunting bettors to grab the Titans. If you see this line fall back down to 3, that would be a signal that late money is breaking toward Tennessee. But if it stays at 3.5, that would continue to signal Bills liability. A slight advantage for Buffalo is the lead official Carl Cheffers. He has historically favored road teams (52% ATS). The total is 53. The over is 4-0 in Bills games this season and 2-1 in Titans games.
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Post by Makers on Oct 14, 2020 5:27:31 GMT -5
Early NFL Week 6 Sharp Report:Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
These AFC North leaders enter with a combined 8-2 record. Cleveland (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) has been one of the biggest surprises of the early season. The Browns fell to the Ravens in Week 1 but have rebounded impressively with four straight wins, most recently beating the Colts 32-23 as 1-point home favorites. The Browns will now face their stiffest test of the season as they travel to the Steel City to take on the undefeated Steelers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS). Pittsburgh is coming off a 38-29 win over the Eagles, covering as 7.5-point favorites. This line opened with the Steelers listed as 4.5-point home favorites. Sharps have identified an edge with the Browns and grabbed Cleveland plus the points, dropping this line from Steelers -4.5 to -3.5. Cleveland has value as a divisional dog. Road teams with a line move (like Browns + 4.5 to + 3.5) are 64% ATS this season. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
This non-conference showdown features two losing teams with a combined record of 2-7. The Lions (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) lost to the Saints 35-29 their last time out, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. After an impressive Week 1 upset win over the Colts, the Jaguars (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) have fallen on hard times and dropped four straight games, most recently losing to the Texans 30-16 as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with Detroit listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Lions, which has pushed this line up from -2.5 to -3. Some shops are even at -3.5. Road teams with a line move in their favor have been a smart bet this season going, going 23-13 ATS (64%). Detroit also has a big rest and game-plan advantage as they are coming off a bye week. Historically, favorites off a bye week have covered at roughly a 60% clip over the past decade. Monday 5 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Both of these AFC heavyweights are looking to bounce-back after suffering their first losses of the season in Week 5. The Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) just got taken down at home by the Raiders 40-32, losing straight up as 10.5-point favorites. Similarly, the Bills (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) just got crushed by the Titans 42-16, losing straight up as 3.5-point favorites on Tuesday night. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite. Smart money immediately hit the Chiefs coming off a loss, pushing the line up to KC -3.5. The lead official is Ron Torbert. Road teams have gone roughly 60% ATS in games where Torbert is the head ref. The Chiefs enjoy a rest advantage here, as they last played on Sunday while the Bills played on Tuesday. The Bills will have value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet Monday night game.
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Post by Makers on Oct 15, 2020 5:57:54 GMT -5
Here are the updated World Series odds at BetMGM
Rays + 120 Braves + 240 Dodgers + 240 Astros + 1600 Now it's on to Thursday. We have a relatively light betting slate today with one college football game and two MLB playoff games 8:08 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves
This is Game 4 of the NLCS. The Braves rushed out to a surprising 2-0 series lead, but then the Dodgers exploded for a 15-3 win in last night's Game 3, cutting the series deficit to 2-1. Tonight, Los Angeles turns to ace lefty Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA) while Atlanta counters with youngster Bryse Wilson (1-0, 4.02 ERA). With this clear pitching matchup advantage, the Dodgers opened as hefty -200 favorites and the Braves a + 170 dog. The public is all over Los Angeles coming off a huge blowout win. And Pros aren't outthinking this one either. Both are hammering the Dodgers, which has pushed Los Angeles up from -200 to -220. We've also seen some smart money hit the under. It opened at a high 9.5. The public is taking the over, expecting another high-scoring game. However, the juice on the under 9.5 is -120, signaling under liability. Some shops have even fallen to 9. One reason to like the under is the weather. In last night's game, we saw the Globe Life retractable roof open and the wind was howling out, which helped the over. But tonight's conditions are totally opposite. Winds are expected to be blowing in at 15 MPH, a big edge to the under. Also, Dan Iassogna is behind the plate. Historically he has favored unders (53%). Leading the series 2-1, Atlanta is a -130 favorite (56.5%) to advance to the World Series. The Dodgers are + 110.
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Post by Makers on Oct 16, 2020 5:19:30 GMT -5
Thursday was a big night for contrarians and sportsbooks as unpopular MLB postseason dogs went 2-0. In the early game, the Astros (+ 120) upset the Rays 4-3 to cut Tampa's series lead to 3-2 and force a Game 6. Houston received some sharp action in the form of a line freeze. The public was all over Tampa, yet the line never budged off Rays -135, indicating liability on the Astros. In the late game, the Braves (+ 190) pulled off a massive upset and beat Kershaw :( Prophet .....and the Dodgers 10-2 to take a 3-1 series lead. The Astros and Braves both won despite only receiving about one-third of bets. Here are the updated World Series odds at BetMGM
Braves + 125 Rays + 165 Dodgers + 475 Astros + 800
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Post by Makers on Oct 16, 2020 5:21:38 GMT -5
6 p.m. ET: SMU (4-0, ranked 17th) at Tulane (2-2)
This early Friday night showdown features a pair of American Conference rivals. SMU enters with an undefeated record, averaging 44 PPG on offense while allowing 23.3 PPG on defense. Meanwhile, Tulane has rotated wins and losses this season, most recently falling to Houston 49-31, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. Tulane is averaging 37 PPG on offense and giving up 31 PPG on defense. This line opened with SMU listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is more than happy to lay the points. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing SMU, we've seen this line fall to 6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog. Tulane has value as an unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent. The Green Wave are also a buy-low, sell-high play as a bad ATS team (1-3 ATS) against a good ATS team (3-1 ATS). We've also seen a ton of sharp action hit this under, dropping the total from 69 to 64.5. A big reason for this plummeting line is the weather. The forecast calls for 15 MPH winds at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Tulane is 3-1 to the over this season. SMU is 3-1 to the under. 9:30 p.m. ET: BYU (4-0, ranked 14th) at Houston (1-0)
BYU has looked dominant through four games, going 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS. The Cougars are ranked 14th and have outscored their opponents by an average margin of 44-11. On the flip side, Houston's season was delayed due to positive COVID tests. They finally made their debut last week, coming from behind to beat Tulane 49-31 and cover as 6.5-point favorites. This line opened with BYU listed as a short road favorite, anywhere from -3 to -4.5. The public sees a ranked undefeated team against an unranked team and that's all they need to know. Lay the points. With roughly two-thirds of bets backing BYU, the line ticked up to -5. That's when we saw sharp buyback show up on Houston + 5. Houston has value as a contrarian dog with an inflated line in a primetime, heavily bet game. The total is also taking in some under smart money. It opened at 63 and has fallen to 62.5 despite the public seeing two high scoring offenses and hammering the over. The under is 3-1 in BYU games this season. Houston's lone game this season went over.
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Post by Makers on Oct 17, 2020 7:43:34 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Auburn (2-1, ranked 15th) at South Carolina (1-2)
On paper, this looks like an easy win and cover for Auburn. After all, the Tigers are ranked and have a winning record while South Carolina is unranked and has a losing record. But a closer look at the line movement tells a different story. Auburn opened as a 3-point road favorite. Roughly two-thirds of bets are backing the Tigers as a short favorite. However, we've seen this line either remain frozen at 3 or fall slightly to 2.5. This signals s mart money hitting South Carolina as a live home dog. South Carolina has value as a contrarian conference dog with a line move in their favor. Sharp money has also hammered the over, pushing the total up from 51.5 to 53. 3:30 p.m. ET: Mississippi (1-2) at Arkansas (1-2)
Both of these SEC teams are 1-2 and looking to get back to .500. Ole Miss just put forth a valiant effort against Alabama, losing 63-48 but covering as 24-point dogs. Mississippi is averaging 42 PPG on offense and giving up 52 PPG on defense. Similarly, Arkansas battled hard against Auburn, losing 30-28 but covering 13.5-point dogs. Arkansas has averaged 20 PPG on offense while giving up 27 PPG on defense. This line opened with Ole Miss listed as a 3-point road favorite. Just under two-thirds of bets are backing Ole Miss, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 1.5. This sharp reverse line movement is a dead giveaway that pros got down on home dog Arkansas, dropping the line in their favor. Keep an eye on the weather in this game. The forecast calls for 15 to 20 MPH winds. The public is hammering hte over, yet the total hasn't budged off of 76.5. This lack of upward movement signals windy under liability. 4 p.m. ET: Virginia (1-2) at Wake Forest (1-2)
Both of these ACC teams are 1-2 and looking to get back to .500 with a victory. Virginia won their season opener against Duke but has since dropped two straight, most recently falling to NC State 38-21, losing straight up as 7-point favorites. Wake Forest started the season 0-2 but then crushed Campbell 66-14, easily covering as 34-point favorites. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 3-point road favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line fall from Virginia -3 to -1.5. This signals pro money grabbing Wake at home, causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Sharps have also gotten down hard on this under, dropping it from 62.5 all the way to 56. 8 p.m. ET: Georgia (3-0, ranked 3rd) at Alabama (3-0, ranked 2nd)
This primetime SEC showdown features two of the best teams in the country going head-to-head. Georgia is coming off a 44-21 win over Tennessee, covering as 12-point favorites. The Bulldogs are undefeated and have outscored their opponents by an average margin of 36-12. Meanwhile, Alabama just beat Ole Miss 63-48, failing to cover as 24-point favorites. The undefeated Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents by an average margin of 51-30. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is all over Alabama as a relatively short home favorite. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall from Bama -6 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bulldogs, with pros grabbing Georgia and the points. We've also seen some sharp money hit this total. It opened at 56.5 and has been bet up to 58 despite over/under bets being split down the middle. This signals pro money hitting the over. A big x-factor here is Alabama coach Nick Saban. He tested positive for COVID-19 and it's unclear whether he will be coaching in person or not. One big edge to Georgia: when two top-5 teams go head-to-head, the dog has covered at roughly a 60% clip over the past decade. More notable line moves
Mississippi State + 6.5 to + 5 vs Texas A&M Miami -10.5 to -13 vs Pitt Navy-ECU Under 59.5 to 54.5 UNC -10 to -13.5 at FSU Virginia Tech -10.5 to -13 vs BC Temple -10 to -13 vs USF South Alabama -2 to -3.5 vs Texas State Georgia Southern -28 to -31 vs UMass
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Post by Makers on Oct 18, 2020 6:16:49 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
After suffering their first loss of the season to the Colts 19-11 in Week 3, the Bears (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) rebounded in a big way in Week 4, upsetting the Bucs 20-19 as 3.5-point home dogs on Thursday Night Football. Now they travel to Carolina to face the surging Panthers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS). After starting the season 0-2, Carolina has ripped off three straight wins, all of which have come without star running back Christian McCaffrey. Most recently, the Panthers are coming off a 23-16 win over the Falcons as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 3-point home favorite. Despite a slight majority of bets laying the points with the home favorite, we've seen this line tumble from Panthers -3 to -1. This sharp reverse line movement signals pros backing Chicago. The Bears enjoy a rest advantage in this one, having last played on Thursday night while the Panthers played on Sunday. The over has also taken in respected money, moving from 43.5 to 44.5. 1 p.m. ET: Washington at New York Giants
These NFC East cellar dwellers have a combined record of 1-9 and already seem to be battling for the #1 pick in the draft. After a season opening win over the Eagles, Washington (1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) has come back down to Earth and lost four straight, most recently falling to the Rams 30-10 as 7-point home dogs. Things have been even worse for the Giants (0-5 SU, 3-2). However, despite a winless record, New York has been a decent team to bet on this season. The G-Men have covered in three of their five games, including last week's 37-34 loss to the Cowboys as 7.5-point underdogs. This line opened with the GIants listed as 3.5-point home favorites. The public sees two bad teams and doesn't know who to back. indicates sharp action hitting Washington plus the points. Washington has value as a divisional dog. Road teams with a line move in their favor (like Washington + 3.5 to + 2.5 here) are 64% ATS this season. 4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bettors are in for a treat with this late afternoon matchup. We get to see two of the game's greatest quarterbacks go head-to-head as Aaron Rodgers faces Tom Brady. The Packers (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) are off a fantastic start this season, winning and covering every game thus far. On the flip side, the Bucs (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) saw their three-game win streak snapped last week when they fell to the Bears 20-19 on Thursday Night Football, losing straight up as 3.5-point favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the Packers on the short spread, which has pushed some books to adjust Green Bay up to -2. That's when we saw wiseguys get down hard on the Bucs at an inflated line, dropping the line down to 1. The Bucs have heightened contrarian value as they are only getting about one-quarter of bets in what will be an extremely heavily bet game. Another edge to Tampa is the lead referee Jerome Boger. Home teams are 55.1% ATS when Boger is the head official. 8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
This Sunday Night showdown pits a pair of NFC West rivals trending in opposite directions. The Rams (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) are riding a two-game winning streak, most recently taking down Washington 30-10 and easily covering as 7-point favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) are mired in a mini-tailspin. San Francisco has lost two straight, including a 43-17 blowout loss to the Dolphins last week, losing straight up at 7.5-point favorites. This line opened with the Rams listed as a short 3-point road favorite. In one of the most lopsided games of the week, more than two-thirds of bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Los Angeles. This heavy support has pushed the line up to Rams -3.5. That's when pros hit San Francisco getting the hook. This line is now down to 2.5. The 49ers have value as a contrarian divisional dog in a heavily bet, primetime game.
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Post by Makers on Oct 19, 2020 7:13:39 GMT -5
Sunday was a monster day for sharps, contrarians and sportsbooks as NFL Week 6 dogs went 8-4 ATS with five outright wins. Unders also crushed it, going 8-4 overall. It was the best Sunday of the season for both dogs and unders.
Here are five dog outright winners
Bucs (+ 2.5) beat Packers 38-10
49ers (+ 2) beat Rams 24-16
Bears (+ 1.5) beat Panthers 23-16
Falcons (+ 3.5) beat Vikings 40-23
Broncos (+ 7) beat Patriots 18-12
Contrarians and sportsbooks cashed bigly in the two most heavily bet games of the day with the Bucs and 49ers. Both only received about one-third of spread bets. The Bucs showed liability throughout the week, opening at + 2, reached a pick'em and then settling back at + 2.5. The 49ers featured clear sharp reverse line movement on Sunday Night Football, falling from + 3.5 to + 2 despite heavy betting on the Rams.
The Bears were a classic example of a sharp play. Chicago opened + 3 and fell to + 1.5 despite a slight majority of bets backing the Panthers. The Broncos (+ 10 to + 7.5) also received massive reverse line movement against the Patriots.
Here are the other dog covers
Washington (+ 2) lost to Giants 20-19
Eagles (+ 10) lost to Ravens 30-28
Bengals (+ 7.5) lost to Colts 31-27
Here are the four favorite covers
Lions (-3) beat Jags 34-16
Titans (-3.5) beat Texans 42-36
Steelers (-3) beat Browns 38-7
Dolphins (-8.5) beat Jets 24-0
Sharps were all over the Browns, who opened at + 4.5 and fell to + 3. They got it wrong and the Steelers rolled.
After a blistering over run in which overs hit at roughly 60% through four weeks, we've now seen big regression the past two weeks. Unders went 8-4 yesterday and are now 15-9 (63%) in Week 5 and 6.
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