brymel2
Premium Member
Posts: 2,527
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Post by brymel2 on Oct 19, 2020 7:36:40 GMT -5
Texans?? What the hell was that at the end of the game?!?
Why go up by 8 when you can go for two and go up by 9. WTH lol??
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Pro v. Joe
Oct 19, 2020 10:46:08 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Makers on Oct 19, 2020 10:46:08 GMT -5
Texans?? What the hell was that at the end of the game?!? Why go up by 8 when you can go for two and go up by 9. WTH lol?? Had the exact thought!
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Post by Makers on Oct 20, 2020 6:14:31 GMT -5
8:09 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Welcome to Game 1 of the World Series. Both of these teams are coming off thrilling Game 7 wins to reach the Fall Classic, with the Rays beating the Astros and the Dodgers edging the Braves. In tonight's opener, the Rays will start young phenom Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA) while the Dodgers counter with lefty ace Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as -165 favorites and the Rays a + 155 dog. Bets are relatively split down the middle, but we've seen some sharp money hit the Dodgers, pushing Los Angeles up to -170. Favorites are 31-16 (66%) so far in the MLB postseason. We've seen sharp money also target this under. A slight majority of bets are going over, yet the total has fallen from 8 to 7.5. Sharps hit the under 8 early, causing the drop. The series will be played at Globe Life Ballpark, new home of the Texas Rangers. The roof is expected to be open and the wind is blowing out to left at roughly 10 MPH. Unders are 26-21 (55%) this postseason. The Dodgers are -200 favorites (67% implied probability) to win the series at BetMGM. The Rays are + 165 underdogs. Here are the exact series prices.
Dodgers win 4-0 (+ 800) Dodgers win 4-1 (+ 400) Dodgers win 4-2 (+ 350) Dodgers win 4-3 (+ 400) Rays win 4-0 (+ 2200) Rays win 4-1 (+ 1100) Rays win 4-2 (+ 650) Rays win 4-3 (+ 550)
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Post by Makers on Oct 21, 2020 6:43:19 GMT -5
Last night, the Dodgers (-160) beat the Rays 8-3 in Game 1 of the World Series. Los Angeles cashed for bettors willing to pay the hefty price. The public was split on the game and there was some late money to the Rays (+ 155 down to + 145). But Dodger chalk ruled out. Favorites continue to crush in the playoffs. Favorites are now 32-16 (67%) this postseason. The Over (7.5) cashed for the public. Sharps were eying the under, dropping it from 8 to 7.5. With the Dodgers up 1-0, Los Angeles is now a -385 favorite (79.4% implied probability) to win the series at BetMGM. The Rays are + 300 dogs. Before Game 1, it was Dodgers -200, Rays + 165. Here are the updated Exact Series prices
Dodgers 4-0 (+ 375) Dodgers 4-1 (+ 265) Dodgers 4-2 (+ 350) Dodgers 4-3 (+ 550) Rays 4-1 (+ 2000) Rays 4-2 (+ 900) Rays 4-3 (+ 700) Today we have a relatively light betting slate, headlined by Game 2 of the World Series. In the meantime, let's discuss where early smart money is flowing for NFL Week 7. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Washington
Both of these NFC rivals have struggled mightily this season, combining for a putrid 3-9 overall record. The Cowboys (2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS) were completely embarrassed last week, falling to the Cardinals 38-10 as 1-point home favorites on Monday Night. Dallas hasn't covered a single game this season. The only other 0-6 ATS team in the NFL is the Jets. On the flip side, Washington (1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) is mired in a 5-game losing skid but was able to cover last week, losing to the Giants 20-19 as 1.5-point dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point road favorite. We've seen a massive wave of sharp action hit Washington plus the points, dropping this line all the way down to a pick'em. Washington has value as a divisional dog with a line move in their favor. Washington could have an edge with their ferocious front seven facing a porous and injury riddled Dallas offensive line. Washington also has a rest advantage as Dallas played on Monday night. We've seen pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Both of these NFC foes are coming off impressive Week 6 victories. The Lions (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) returned from their bye week with a dominant 34-16 win over the Jags, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) got a bounce from their new head coach, upsetting the Vikings 40-23, winning straight up as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3-point home favorite. Spread bets are split and the public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen pro money get down on the Lions at the key number of + 3, dropping this line down to 2.5. Some books are even down to 2. Short road dogs + 6 or less have gone 23-11 ATS (68%) this season. Road teams with a line move in their favor have gone 28-16 ATS (64%) this season. The total is a high 57. Both teams have been profitable to the over, with the Lions 3-2 and Falcons 4-2. Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots
These non-conference opponents are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid in Week 6 with a big 24-16 upset win over the Rams, winning outright as 2-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have been mired in virus concerns and just lost their second straight game last week, falling to the Broncos 18-12 and losing straight up as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 3-point home favorite. Spread bets are split in this game and the public doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line fall from Pats -3 to -2.5. This signals pro money grabbing the points and backing San Francisco at the key number of + 3. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 23-11 ATS (68%) this season. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 27-16 ATS (63%). In his young career, Jimmy Garoppolo is 10-3 ATS as a dog. More Week 7 line moves
Giants + 6 to + 4.5 at Eagles Giants-Eagles Under 45 to 43.5 Bengals + 4 to + 3 vs Browns Bills -11 to -13 at Jets Packers -3 to -3.5 at Texans Chiefs -8.5 to -9.5 at Broncos
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Post by Makers on Oct 22, 2020 5:27:54 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
This Thursday Night Showdown features a pair of NFC East opponents with a combined 2-9-1 record. The Giants (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) enter this game with some confidence, though, as they just earned their first victory of the season in Week 6, beating Washington 20-19 but failing to cover as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (1-4-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) are riding a two-game losing skid, although they hung tough last week against the Ravens, losing 30-28 but covering as 10-point dogs. The Giants are -51 in point differential this season. The Eagles are -34. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with Danny Dimes and the Giants and still believes in the former Super Bowl champion Eagles. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with Philadelphia, we've seen this line fall from Eagles -6 to -4.5. This sharp reverse line movement away from the popular side (Eagles) and toward the unpopular side (Giants) signals pro money grabbing New York plus the points.
The Giants have value as "fade the public" play in a heavily bet primetime game. New York is also a road divisional dog and a road team with a line move in their favor (28-16, 64% ATS this season). Short road dogs (+ 6 or less) are 23-12 ATS (66%) this season. The Eagles are dealing with a plethora of injuries and will be without offensive weapons Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz on Thursday night. Respected money hit the under early, dropping it from 45 to 43.5. But over the past 24-hours we've seen over buyback, pushing it back up to 45. The under is 4-2 in Giants games. The over is 4-2 in Eagles games. The weather shouldn't be an issue tonight. The forecast calls for high 60s, partly cloudy and little to no wind.
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Post by Makers on Oct 23, 2020 5:39:12 GMT -5
The Giants (+ 5) came up huge for sharp contrarian bettors last night, losing to the Eagles 22-21 but covering the spread. New York was a blueprint example of data-driven sharp play. The G-MEN were contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game and received sharp reverse line movement (+ 6 to + 5). The line even reached 3.5 throughout the week. Essentially all liability and line movement was toward New York even though the vast majority of bets were on Philadelphia. The Giants also cashed as a road divisional dog. The built in familiarity between divisional opponents has historically benefited the team getting points. Road teams with line movement in their favor are now 29-16 ATS (64%) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are now 24-12 ATS (67%).
The under also hit for contrarians. It opened at 45 and closed 44.5 despite a majority of public bettors going over. Now it's on to Friday. Today we have four college football games and Game 3 of the World Series. 7:30 p.m. ET: Tulsa (1-1) at South Florida (1-4)
This American Conference Showdown features two teams hungry for a win. Tulsa has only played two games this season due a pair of games being postponed because of the virus. Tulsa has played a pair of ranked opponents, hanging tough against Oklahoma State and then upsetting UCF 34-26. Meanwhile, it's been a disastrous start to the season for South Florida, who just lost to Temple 39-37 last week. Tulsa is averaging 21 PPG on offense and giving up 21 PPG on defense. South Florida is similar on offense (19 PPG) but their porous defense is allowing 34 PPG. This line opened with Tulsa listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are united in their support for Tulsa, which has pushed the Golden Hurricane from -9.5 to -10.5. Some books are at -11. Pro money has also hit this total, dropping it from 51 to 50. This is a windy under system match. The forecast calls for high 70s, humidity and 10-12 MPH winds. 8 p.m. ET: Louisiana (3-1) at UAB (4-1)
This non-conference showdown features the sharpest line movement of the four-game Friday night slate. After starting 3-0, Louisiana lost their first game of the season last week, falling to Coastal Carolina 30-27 and losing straight up as 9-point favorites. Meanwhile, UAB lost their season opener but has since won four straight, most recently crushing Western Kentucky 37-14, easily covering as 11.5-point favorites. Louisiana is averaging 28 PPG on offense and giving up 23.3 PPG on defense. UAB is averaging 31.8 PPG and giving up 20.6 PPG. This line opened with UAB listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. Yet we've seen a massive line move toward Louisiana, with the Ragin Cajuns moving from + 2.5 to -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this huge "dog to favorite" move was caused by pro bettors loading up on Louisiana. The Ragin Cajuns also enjoy a 3-day rest advantage in this one, having last played on October 14 vs UAB last playing Oct. 17.
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Post by Makers on Oct 24, 2020 7:31:16 GMT -5
Noon ET: NC State (4-1, ranked 23rd) at North Carolina (3-1, ranked 14th)
Both of these teams are ranked and battling for the lead in the ACC. NC State is riding a three-game winning streak, most recently beating Duke 31-20 and covering as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, North Carolina just took their first loss of the season last week, falling to Florida State 31-28 and losing outright as 13.5-point favorites. This line opened with UNC listed as a 16-point home favorite. Pros and Joes both think this line is a bit high and have hit NC State, dropping the line from 16 to 14.5. The Wolfpack have value as a conference road dog with a line move. Pros have also targeted this under, dropping it from 64 to 60. Noon ET: Rutgers (0-0) at Michigan State (0-0)
This is the first game for both teams as the Big 10 returns today. It's also the debut for both coaches, as Greg Schiano is making his return to the Rutgers sideline and Mel Tucker takes over for longtime MSU coach Mark Dantonio. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 13-point home favorite. A slight majority of bets are laying with points with the Spartans at home, yet this line has fallen from MSU -13 to -11. This signals respected money grabbing the points with Rutgers, causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Rutgers also has value as a road conference dog with a low total. We've seen pro money hit this under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5. 3:30 p.m. ET: Iowa State (3-1, ranked 17th) at Oklahoma State (3-0, ranked 6th)
This Big 12 showdown is one of the most heavily bet games of the day, featuring a pair of ranked conference rivals. After a stunning Week 1 loss to Louisiana, Iowa State has won three straight, most recently beating Texas Tech 31-15 and covering as 10-point favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is undefeated through three games and just waxed Kansas 47-7, easily covering and 21.5-point favorites. Both teams are averaging 30 PPG on offense. The difference is on defense, where Iowa State is giving up 28 PPG and OK State is only giving up 9 PPG. This line opened with OK State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the higher-ranked team at home, yet we've seen this fall from 3.5 to 3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Iowa State, with respected money backing the road dog to keep it close. The Cycles also have value as a short road dog + 4 or less (roughly 54% last decade). We've also seen some sharp under money, dropping the total from 54 to 52. 7 p.m. ET: South Carolina (2-2) at LSU (1-2)
Both of these SEC rivals are unranked and looking to get back into the national conversation. After an 0-2 start with losses to Tennessee and Florida, we've seen South Carolina respond with a two-game winning streak, most recently upsetting Auburn 30-22 as 2.5-point dogs. The Gamecocks are 3-0-1 ATS this season. On the flip side, it's been a disappointing start to the season for LSU, who is below .500 and just fell to Mizzou 45-41, losing outright as 14-point favorites. This line opened with LSU listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to take. But we've seen pros back to the road dog, dropping South Carolina from + 6.5 to + 5. The Gamecocks have value as a conference dog and a short road dog with line movement in their favor. More notable line moves
Nebraska-Ohio State Over 65 to 68 Clemson -45 to -46 vs Syracuse Penn State-Indiana Over 58.5 to 62 Virginia Tech -7.5 to -10.5 at Wake Forest Kansas State -18 to -20.5 vs Kansas Hawaii + 3.5 to + 2.5 at Fresno State Miami -11.5 to -13.5 vs Virginia Louisiana Tech -1.5 to -2.5 at UTSA Missouri + 5.5 to + 3.5 vs Kentucky Rice -3 to -4 vs MTSU Boise State -14.5 to -17 vs Utah State
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Post by Makers on Oct 25, 2020 4:38:44 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (2-4) at Washington Football Team (1-5)
The Cowboys were completely embarrassed last week, falling to the Cardinals 38-10 as 1-point home favorites on Monday Night. Dallas hasn't covered a single game this season. The only other 0-6 ATS team in the NFL is the Jets. On the flip side, Washington is mired in a 5-game losing skid but was able to cover last week, losing to the Giants 20-19 as 1.5-point dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point road favorite. We've seen a massive wave of sharp action hit Washington and it's been non-stop all week, pushing Washington from 3 to -1. Some shops are even at -1.5. This type of "dog to favorite" line move is very real and almost exclusively sharp driven, especially with the fact that two-thirds of bets are backing Dallas. In other words, it's a true reverse line move. Washington could have an edge with their ferocious front seven facing a porous and injury riddled Dallas offensive line. Washington also has a rest advantage as Dallas played on Monday night. We've seen pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 45. 1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5)
The Lions returned from their bye week with a dominant 34-16 win over the Jags last Sunday, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons got a bounce from their new head coach, upsetting the Vikings 40-23 in Week 6, winning straight up as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3-point home favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen pro money get down on the Lions at the key number of 3, dropping this line down to 2. The Lions match several profitable systems. Short road dogs 6 or less have gone 24-12 ATS (67%) this season. Road teams with a line move in their favor have gone 29-16 ATS (64%) this season. 1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-2)
The Panthers saw their three-game winning streak come to an end last week when they fell to the Bears 23-16, losing straight up as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a bye week and have won two straight, most recently beating the Chargers 30-27 but failing to cover as 7-point favorites. This line opened with the Saints listed as 7.5-point home favorites. The public is leaning on New Orleans at home with extra rest. However, this line has dipped from Saints -7.5 to -6.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Panthers, with pros grabbing the points, not laying them. Carolina has value as a road divisional dog in a buy-low spot off a loss. Road teams in general have covered 55% of the time this season due to the lack of fans in the stands and decreased home field advantage. Also, Craig Wrolstad is the lead official and he historically favors road teams (57.4% ATS). Teddy Bridgewater is 20-5 ATS (80%) as a dog in his career. 1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) at Tennessee Titans (5-0)
This showdown between two of the NFL's three undefeated teams is the marquee matchup of the early Sunday slate. The Steelers are coming off a 38-7 drubbing of the Browns last week, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Pittsburgh is 62 in point differential this season, the best in the NFL. The Titans have been equally impressive, overcoming a COVID scare and not missing a beat. Tennessee just beat the Texans 42-36, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as roughly a 2.5-point road favorite (some shops opened closed to Steelers -1.5). The public is backing the streaking Steelers. However, despite two-thirds of bets taking Pittsburgh, this line has flipped to Titans -1.5. This signals heavy pro money fading the trendy dog and siding with the contrarian favorite Titans. More Week 7 Line Moves
Browns-Bengals Under 51.5 to 50 Jets 13 to 10 vs Bills Broncos 9.5 to 7.5 vs Chiefs
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Post by Makers on Oct 26, 2020 8:32:37 GMT -5
Underdog bettors feasted on Sunday, going 7-4 ATS with four outright wins. Washington closed at a pick'em and covered a sharp line move (+ 3 to pick'em), crushing the Cowboys 25-3. The Jets (+ 9.5) were one of the seven dog covers. New York lost 18-10 to the Bills but finally covered the spread for the first time this season. The Cowboys are now the only team remaining in the NFL to not cover a spread (0-7 ATS). Here are the 4 outright dog winners
Lions (+ 1) beat Falcons 23-22 Steelers (+ 1) beat Titans 27-24 49ers (+ 3) beat Patriots 33-6 Cardinals (+ 3.5) beat Seahawks 37-34 The Lions cashed a sharp road dog line move (+ 3 to + 1). The Steelers beat the sharps and cashed for the public. Pros were all over Tennessee (+ 1.5 to -1) but got it wrong. The 49ers were a line freeze at + 3, but showed liability at -2 or -2.5 earlier in the week. The Cardinals came up huge for dog bettors on Sunday Night Football. Arizona was a divisional dog, contrarian in a heavily bet game and had a sharp line freeze (+ 3.5). Here are the 3 other dog covers
Jets (+ 9.5) lost to Bills 18-10 Panthers (+ 7) lost to Saints 27-24 Bengals (+ 4.5) lost to Browns 37-34 Road teams are now 58-46 ATS (56%) this season. Road dogs with a line move in their favor (think Lions + 3 to + 1) are now 33-18 ATS (65%). Short road dogs + 6 or less are now 27-12 ATS (69%). Here are the 4 favorite covers
Packers (-3) beat Texans 35-20 Bucs (-4) beat Raiders 45-20 Chiefs (-7) beat Broncos 43-16 Chargers (-7.5) beat Jags 39-29 The Packers, Bucs and Chiefs were all popular chalk plays and all three came through, much to the chagrin of sportsbooks.
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Post by Makers on Oct 26, 2020 8:33:25 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
This Monday Night Football showdown features two NFC playoff hopefuls trending in opposite directions. The Bears (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) are riding a two-game winning streak and just took down the Panthers 23-16, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week when they fell to the 49ers 24-16, losing straight up as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Rams listed as a 7-point home favorite. Other books opened at Los Angeles -5.5. Tickets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. But we've seen this line even out to Rams -6. The Bears side is being juiced up + 6 at -115, signaling some Chicago liability and a possible next move down to 5.5. Chicago has value a short road dog + 6 or less (69% ATS this season). Bill Vinochich is the lead official. He has historically favored road teams (56.3% ATS). Dogs are 15-6 ATS (71%) in primetime this season.
We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 47 to 44.5. Both of these teams are 4-2 to the under this season. Primetime unders are 15-6 (71%) this season.
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Post by Makers on Oct 27, 2020 5:41:11 GMT -5
The Rams took care of business on Monday Night Football, beating the Bears 24-10 and covering the spread as 6.5-point home favorites. Bets were virtually split down the middle for this one and the public didn't know who to take. However, in the final hour before kickoff we saw the line jump from Rams -6 to -6.5. This late flood of money proved telling as Los Angeles rolled from start to finish and won by 14-points. Late moves, especially on game-day and in the final hours leading up to game-time, are incredibly meaningful because they represent big money coming in when limits are high and books take in huge bets from respected players. Sharps were able to cash the under. The total opened at 47 and got bet down to 44. It fell from 45 to 44 in the last hour before kickoff. Primetime unders are now 16-6 on the season (73%). Now we turn our attention to Tuesday, which is headlined by Game 6 of the World Series. In the meantime, here are some NFL Week 8 games already attracting sharp action. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions
This non-conference showdown features two teams coming off wins looking to make a playoff push. The Colts (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) are rested and coming off a bye, most recently beating the Bengals 31-27 but failing to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. The Lions (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) are riding a two-game winning streak and just beat the Falcons 23-22 as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 3-point road favorite. Tickets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen this line either stay at 3 or drop to 2.5 depending on the shop. This signals some respected money hitting the Lions at the key number of + 3. Detroit has value as a short home dog. Pro money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 51 to 50. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
These two AFC foes are trending in opposite directions, which creates a buy low, sell high opportunity for value-driven bettors. The Raiders (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) have lost three of their last four games, most recently falling to the Bucs 45-20 as 4-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Browns have won five of their last six games and just beat the Bengals 37-34, although they failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 3-point home favorite. Pro bettors have jumped on the Raiders at the key number of + 3, causing this line to fall down to 2.5. The Raiders have value as a short road dog, a road dog with a line move in their favor and a dog off a 20+ point blowout loss. The Raiders are 6-0 to the over and the Browns are 5-2 to the over. The public sees an auto-bet over, but respected money sees a bit of an inflated total. Respected money has hit the under, dropping the total from 55.5 to 53.5. Keep an eye on the weather at the Dawg Pound. We could be looking at 15-20 MPH winds, which would benefit the under. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
This AFC North showdown features a pair of bitter rivals with Super Bowl aspirations. This will also be one of the most anticipated and heavily bet games on Sunday. The Steelers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and just beat the Titans 27-24, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Ravens (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) are riding a three-game winning streak, having just beat the Eagles 30-28 their last time out, although Baltimore failed to cover as a 10-point road favorite. The Ravens will also enjoy a big rest advantage here as they are coming off a bye week. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both rushing to the window to grab the points with the streaking Steelers. This lopsided action has forced oddsmakers to adjust the line down from Ravens -5.5 to -3.5. Pittsburgh has value as a road divisional dog, a road team with a line move in their favor and a short road dog + 6 or less. We've also seen a steady stream of under money, dropping the total from 49 to 47. Weather could be an issue as the forecast calls for 10 MPH winds. More Week 8 Line Moves
Titans -4 to -5.5 at Bengals Jets + 21 to + 19.5 at Chiefs 49ers + 4 to + 3 at Seahawks Vikings + 7 to + 6.5 at Packers Patriots + 4 to + 3.5 at Buffalo Falcons-Panthers Under 51 to 49
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Post by Makers on Oct 30, 2020 5:37:07 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota (0-1) at Maryland (0-1)
Both of these Big Ten foes are coming off blowout losses in their season openers. Minnesota got crushed by powerhouse Michigan 49-24, failing to cover as 3-point dogs. Maryland got absolutely demolished by Northwestern 43-3, failing to cover as 13-point dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 20.5-point road favorite. The public isn't scared off by the big spread and is happy to fade a Terps team who just lost by 40-points. However, despite a majority of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall from Minnesota -20.5 to -19.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement with pros grabbing the points with Maryland. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the over. We've seen this total rise from 59 to 61.
9 p.m. ET: East Carolina (1-3) at Tulsa (2-1)
On paper, this American Conference showdown looks like a layup with the home team. East Carolina has lost three of their four games, most recently falling to Navy 27-23, failing to cover as 3.5-point dogs. On the other hand, Tulsa has won two straight and just crushed South Florida 42-13, easily covering as 12-point favorites. The public also remembers Tulsa hanging tough against Oklahoma State in the opener, losing 16-7 but covering as 24-point dogs. This line opened with Tulsa listed as an 18-point home favorite. The public is laying the points, but we've seen the line drop to 17. This signals some respected money hitting ECU and the points. ECU has value as a contrarian double-digit conference road dog with a line move in their favor.
9:45 p.m. ET: Hawaii (1-0) at Wyoming (0-1)
This late night Mountain West matchup features the sharpest line move of Friday's tripleheader slate. Hawaii (1-0) is coming off a 34-19 win over Fresno State, winning outright as a 3-point dog. Conversely, Wyoming lost their season opener in a shootout 37-34 to Nevada, losing outright as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Hawaii listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Tickets are split, yet we've seen this line flip toward Wyoming, pushing the Cowboys from a 1.5-point dog to a 1-point favorite. Wyoming has value as a buy low, sell high dog-to-favorite play. Pros might prefer betting the moneyline in this one, with Wyoming roughly -115.
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Post by Makers on Nov 1, 2020 7:30:17 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
These two AFC foes are trending in opposite directions, which creates a buy low, sell high opportunity for value-driven bettors. The Raiders (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) have lost three of their last four games, most recently falling to the Bucs 45-20 as 4-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Browns have won five of their last six games and just beat the Bengals 37-34, although they failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 3-point home favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen this line tumble from Browns -3 to -2. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this move was caused by respected pro money backing Vegas. The Raiders have value as a short road dog, a road dog with a line move in their favor and a dog off a 20+ point blowout loss. The Raiders are 6-0 to the over and the Browns are 5-2 to the over. The public sees an auto-bet over, but sharp money sees a bit of an inflated total. Sharps have hit the under, dropping the total from 55.5 to 48. Weather is a huge factor here, as the forecast calls for 25 MPH winds. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (56% ATS) and unders (59%).
1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
This AFC North showdown features a pair of bitter rivals with Super Bowl aspirations. This will also be one of the most anticipated and heavily bet games on Sunday. The Steelers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and just beat the Titans 27-24, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Ravens (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) are riding a three-game winning streak, having just beat the Eagles 30-28 their last time out, although Baltimore failed to cover as a 10-point road favorite. The Ravens will also enjoy a big rest advantage here as they are coming off a bye week. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both rushing to the window to grab the points with the streaking Steelers. This lopsided action has forced oddsmakers to adjust the line down from Ravens -5.5 to -3.5. We saw some buyback on Ravens at -3.5, pushing the line back up to -4 where it rests now. Pittsburgh has value as a road divisional dog, a road team with a line move in their favor and a short road dog + 6 or less. We've also seen a steady stream of under money, dropping the total from 49 to 46.5. Weather could be an issue as the forecast calls for 10 MPH winds and some rain.
4:35 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
This NFC West showdown has big divisional implications. The Seahawks (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) are coming off their first loss of the season, falling to the Cardinals on Sunday Night 37-34 and losing straight up as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) are riding on a two-game win streak and just demolished the Patriots 33-6, winning straight up as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public sees Russell Wilson at home off a loss and has no problem laying the short number. However, despite a majority of bets backing Seattle, we've seen a notable adjustment toward San Francisco, with this line falling down to the key number of 3 thanks to smart money backing the 49ers. San Francisco has value as a contrarian road divisional dog with a line move in their favor and a short road dog. Jimmy Garoppolo is 2-0 ATS this season as a dog and 11-3 ATS as a dog in his career. The lead official is Craig Wrolstad. He has historically favored road teams (58% ATS).
More notable line movement
Vikings + 7 to + 6 at Packers
Patriots-Bills Under 46 to 40.5
Titans -4 to -7 at Bengals
Titans-Bengals Under 55.5 to 51
Jets + 21 to + 20 at Chiefs
Rams-Dolphins Under 47 to 45
Saints-Bears Under 45.5 to 42.5
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Post by Makers on Nov 2, 2020 7:11:57 GMT -5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
This Monday Night Football matchup looks incredibly lopsided on paper. The Bucs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won two in a row and just crushed the Raiders 45-20, easily covering as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 22-21 loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night, although they managed to cover as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Tom Brady and the Bucs listed as a 10-point road favorite and now we're sitting at Bucs -12. The public is absolutely hammering the Bucs. But so were early pros, who targeted Tampa at -10 and -10.5. This line actually reached Bucs -12.5. That's when you saw some buyback on Eagles + 12.5, dropping it back down to 12.
The Giants look awful but have lots of value as a super contrarian dog in a heavily bet game. Only about one-third of bets are grabbing the points in this primetime game. New York also enjoys a rest advantage, as they last played on Thursday Night compared to the Bucs last playing on Sunday. Historically, Monday Night Football double-digit dogs are rare and have been a smart bet, covering at roughly a 70% clip over the past decade. Primetime dogs are 15-8 ATS (65%) this season.
We've seen some smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 45. Weather could play a role in this one as the forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds at MetLife Stadium. The Bucs are 4-3 to the over this season but the Giants are 5-2 to the under. Primetime unders are 17-6 (74%) this season.
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Post by Makers on Nov 7, 2020 7:28:33 GMT -5
Noon ET: West Virginia (4-2) at Texas (4-2, ranked 22nd)
This Big 12 grudge match features a pair of conference rivals coming off big wins. West Virginia just crushed Kansas State 37-10, easily covering as 5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Texas just upset Oklahoma State 41-34, winning outright as 3.5-point dogs. West Virginia is averaging 33 PPG on offense and allowing 20 PPG on defense, while Texas is averaging 44 PPG on offense but giving up 33 PPG on defense. This line opened with Texas listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is split, yet we've seen smart money pour in on the Mountaineers (Tim) , dropping WVU from + 7 to + 5.5. WVU has buy-low value as an unranked road conference dog against a ranked opponent.
3:30 p.m. ET: Florida (3-1, ranked 8th) vs Georgia (4-1, ranked 5th)
This SEC showdown, known popularly as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party," is one of the most popular and most heavily bet games of the day. This is a neutral site game and will be played in Jacksonville at the Jaguars stadium. Florida is coming off a 41-17 thrashing of Missouri, covering as 13.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Georgia just defeated Kentucky 14-3 but failed to cover as 17-point favorites. Florida is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 42-29 while Georgia is beating their opponents by an average margin of 29-16. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 4.5-point favorite. Bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen this line tumble from Georgia -4.5 to -3. This signals respected wiseguy action grabbing the points with the Gators. Florida has value as a conference dog with a line move in their favor.
7:30 p.m. ET: Clemson (7-0, ranked 1st) at Notre Dame (6-0, ranked 4th)
This primetime battle between a pair of undefeated top five teams is the marquee matchup of the night. Clemson enters ranked first in the nation, outscoring their opponents 46-16. In their first game without star Trevor Lawrence, Clemson came from behind to beat Boston College 34-28, although they didn't come close to covering as 26.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Notre Dame just crushed Georgia Tech 31-13, also failing to cover as 20.5-point favorites. The Irish are outscoring their opponents by an average score of 35-10. This line opened with Clemson listed as a 5-point road favorite. A slight majority of bets, along with some respected money, is backing Clemson, which has pushed this line up to -6. We saw some buyback on Notre Dame at + 6, dropping the line back to Clemson -5.5, where it rests now. Essentially all liability has been on the Clemson side. Historically, when two ranked teams go head-to-head the favorite has covered at roughly a 56% clip the past decade, including 13-2 ATS this season.
More Saturday Line Moves
Arkansas + 2 to + 1 vs Tennessee
Stanford + 11.5 to + 8.5 at Oregon
Oregon State + 2.5 to -3 vs Washington State
Michigan State + 7 to + 5.5 at Iowa
Maryland-Penn State Over 63 to 64.5
ECU + 4 to + 3 vs Tulane
Arkansas State-UL Lafayette over 66.5 to 68
North Carolina -10.5 to -11.5 at Duke
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