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Post by Makers on Nov 8, 2020 7:51:33 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs
This non-conference matchup features a pair of teams trending in opposite directions. The Panthers (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) have dropped three straight games, most recently falling to the Falcons 25-17 on Thursday Night Football, losing straight up as 1.5-point favorites. On the flip side, the Chiefs (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) have won three straight, most recently crushing the Jets 35-9 and covering as 19.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 12.5-point home favorite. The public could care less about the big number and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the powerhouse Chiefs. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing the home favorites, we've seen Kansas City fall from -12.5 to -10. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Panthers, with respected money backing the road dog to keep it relatively close. Carolina has a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while Kansas City last played Sunday. The Panthers are also a road team with a line move in their favor (38-23, 62% ATS this season). Teddy Bridgewater is 21-5 ATS in his career as a dog, including 4-2 ATS this season. 4:05 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at San Diego Chargers
This AFC West divisional matchups features a pair of teams heading in opposite directions. The Raiders (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just took down the Browns 16-6, winning straight up as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chargers (2-5 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) blew yet another big lead, falling to the Broncos 31-30 as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are in complete unison on the Raiders, with both betting cohorts rushing to the window to grab the points with Vegas. This lopsided action has dropped the Chargers from -3 to a pick'em. Vegas has value as a road divisional dog and also matches several profitable systems this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 32-13 ATS (71%). Road teams with a line move in their favor are 38-23 ATS (62%). We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total is 52.5. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season. Vegas is 6-1 and Los Angeles is 4-3. 8:20 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This Sunday Night Football showdown between NFC South rivals and Super Bowl contenders could be a possible NFC Championship preview. The Saints (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) have won four straight games, most recently beating the Bears 26-23 but failing to cover as 5.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) are riding a three-game win streak and just took down the Giants 25-23 on Monday Night Football, although they failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early heavy chalk betting pushed the Bucs from -4.5 to -5.5. But over the last 48-hours or so we've seen sharp buyback hit the Saints, dropping this line down to 4. New Orleans has value as a road divisional dog and a short road dog + 6 or less (32-13 ATS, 71% ATS). New Orleans also has a rest advantage as the Bucs are on a short week. Primetime dogs are 17-8 ATS (68%). The total has fallen bigly from 54.5 to 50.5. Both teams are profitable to the over this season, with New Orleans 7-0 and Tampa Bay 5-3. More Sunday Line Moves
Colts + 3 to + 1 vs Ravens Giants + 3.5 to + 2.5 at Washington Texans-Jaguars Under 51.5 to 49.5 Steelers-Cowboys Over 42 to 44 Broncos-Falcons Over 47.5 to 49 Seahawks-Bills Over 53 to 55
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Post by Makers on Nov 9, 2020 7:36:57 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at New York Jets
This Monday Night Football showdown features two AFC East rivals desperate for a victory. The Patriots (2-5, 3-4 ATS) have lost four straight games, most recently falling to the Bills 24-21, although New England was able to cover as a 4-point road dog. The Patriots have never lost five straight games in the Belichick era. Meanwhile, the Jets (0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS) are the only winless team left in the NFL. New York is coming off a 36-9 loss to the Chiefs, failing to cover as 19.5-point road dogs. This line opened with New England listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public knows the Pats are struggling but they can't possibly stomach backing the winless Jets. However, despite roughly two- thirds of bets taking the Patriots, we saw respected money back the Jets early, dropping the line from New England -7.5 to -7. But then everything changed when it was announced Sam Darnold would miss this game with an injury and Joe Flacco would start in his place. The line immediately skyrocketed to Patriots -9.5. A couple books went to -10 and took in some buyback on Jets + 10, dropping back to + 9.5. New York has value as a divisional dog in a low total game (41). Low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover the number. The Jets also have value as a contrarian play in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 18-9 ATS (67%). this season.
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Post by Makers on Nov 10, 2020 6:24:39 GMT -5
The Jets came up huge for sharps last night, losing to the Patriots 30-27 on Monday Night Football but covering the spread as 9-point dogs. The Jets checked off several of the "wiseguy" boxes. New York was contrarian in a heavily bet game and saw a massively inflated line, rising from + 7.5 to + 10 once it was announced Joe Flacco would start in place of Sam Darnold. But then we saw late sharp reverse line movement hit the Jets, dropping New York from + 10 to + 9 in the final hours before kickoff. Late movement is always the most meaningful as it comes when limits are highest and books take in the biggest wagers from respected bettors. Essentially the Jets evolved from an early value play into a late sharp play. They were also a divisional dog with a low total, a profitable spot historically. Due to the built in familiarity, divisional matchups favor the team getting points. And low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover, especially when it's a near double-digit spread. With the Jets' cover, dogs improve to 76-57 ATS (57%) on the season. Divisional dogs are now 29-16 ATS (64%). Primetime dogs are now 19-9 ATS (68%). The over was a zero-sweat cash. The public was split on the total and even slightly favored the under, expecting a lower scoring game. Yet we saw a late move from 41 to 42. It easily sailed over and landed on 57. Overs are 70-60-3 (54%) on the season. Now we turn our attention to a loaded Tuesday slate featuring a trio of MACtion games. In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for two of tonight's college football games. 7 p.m. ET: Akron (0-1) at Ohio (0-1)
Both of these MACtion foes dropped their season openers last week. Akron got demolished by Western Michigan 58-13, failing to cover as 20.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Ohio lost a close one to Central Michigan 30-27, losing straight up as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Ohio listed as a massive 24.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both laying the wood with Ohio here and have pushed the number up from -24.5 to -27.5. Who can blame them? Akron has quietly become one of the most profitable fades in sports. The Zips are 1-12 ATS since 2019. 7:30 p.m. ET: Kent State (1-0) at Bowling Green (0-1)
These teams put forth opposite performances in their season debuts. Kent State took down Eastern Michigan 27-23, although they failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Bowling Green got waxed by Toledo 38-3, failing to cover as 24-point dogs. This line opened with Kent State listed as an 18.5-point road favorite. A slight majority of bets along with an onslaught of sharp action has hit the Golden Flashes, driving this line up from -18.5 to -20.5. We've also seen respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 57.5 to 56. Weather is a big reason for this drop, as the forecast calls for 20 MPH winds.
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Post by Makers on Nov 11, 2020 6:54:20 GMT -5
Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
This NFC South divisional matchup features a pair of teams looking to avenge tough Week 9 losses. The Bucs (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) are coming off an embarrassing 38-3 blowout loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football, losing straight up as 3-point home favorites. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Panthers (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) battled hard in Kansas City last week, losing 33-31 to the Chiefs but covering as 10-point road dogs. It marked the fourth straight loss for Carolina. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 6-point road favorite. We've seen sharps get down hard on the Panthers, driving this line down from Carolina + 6 to + 4.5. Divisional dogs like Carolina are 28-16 ATS (64%) this season. Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS (81%) as a dog in his career, including 5-2 ATS this season. We've also seen some smart money hit this over, pushing it up from 48.5 to 50.5. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
These non-conference foes are trending in completely opposite directions. The Jaguars (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) have lost seven straight after shocking the Colts on opening day. However, Jacksonville showed some life with rookie Jake Luton under center, falling to Houston 27-25 but covering as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) sit comfortably atop the NFC North and just crushed the 49ers 34-17 on Thursday Night Football, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a hefty 14-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout and is thinking about laying the points. However, we've seen this line fall slightly from Green Bay -14 to -13.5. This signals some respected money hitting the Jags at the key number of + 14, causing a half-point adjustment in their favor. Green Bay has a rest advantage as they last played on Thursday compared to the Jags playing on Sunday. We've also seen pro money hammer this under, dropping the total from 53 to 52. Weather could be an issue in this one. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau. Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Both of these NFC West rivals have struggled in recent weeks. Both are 1-2 in their last three games and looking to rebound from tough road losses. The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) lost to the Bills in a shootout last week, falling 44-34 and losing outright as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just got humbled in South Beach, falling to the Dolphins 28-17 and losing straight up as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 2-point home favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the Seahawks as a short road dog, as we've seen this line tumble down from Seattle + 2 to + 1.5. The Seahawks have value as a divisional dog (29-16 ATS, 64% this season) and a short road + 6 or less (35-15 ATS, 70%), Russell Wilson in 27-13 ATS (68%) as a dog in his career. The Rams will have a rest and game-plan advantage in this one as they are coming off a bye. The total is 55.5. The Seahawks have been profitable to the over this season (6-2) while the Rams have been a big under team (6-2). More Week 10 Early Moves
Colts + 2.5 to + 2 at Titans Browns -2.5 to -3 vs Texans Broncos-Raiders Over 50.5 to 52 Bills-Cardinals Over 54 to 56 Chargers-Dolphins Under 49 to 48 49ers-Saints Under 51 to 50 Patriots-Ravens Over 41.5 to 43.5
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Post by Makers on Nov 12, 2020 7:01:04 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
This Thursday Night showdown features two AFC South rivals coming off opposite Week 9 performances. The Colts (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) let down the sharps last week, moving from 3-point dogs to 1-point favorites against the Ravens and then losing straight up 24-10 at home. Meanwhile, the Titans (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 24-17 win over the Bears, hanging on to cover as 6-point home favorites. The Colts are + 48 in point differential this season. The Titans are + 31.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Titans since they have a better record and are a home favorite laying a short number. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line tumble all the way down to a pick'em. Why would books drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover with the Titans when they're already betting Tennessee to begin with? Because an overload of respected sharp action has come in on the Colts, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line drastically in their favor. Essentially, we are looking at a super sharp reverse line move on Indianapolis.
The Colts are in a classic buy low spot off a loss against a sell high Titans team off a win. And while the line is now down to a pick'em, the Colts had value all week as a road divisional dog and a short road dog + 6 or less (35-15 ATS, 70% this season). Also, primetime dogs are 18-9 ATS (67%). Road teams with a line move in their favor are 43-25 ATS (63%). Indianapolis is also contrarian in a heavily bet game as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in a nationally televised spot. These primetime games get an influx of public betting, which leads to high ticket counts and more recreational bias to go against.
We've also seen some smart money hit this under. Despite roughly two-thirds of bets taking the over, the total has fallen from 49.5 to 48.5. Historically, divisional unders that fall at least a half point have won at roughly a 54% clip over the past decade. Primetime unders are 18-9 (67%) this season.The lead referee Brad Allen is slightly favorable to unders (52%). The Colts are 4-4 to the over/under this year. The Titans are 5-2-1 to the over.
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Post by Makers on Nov 14, 2020 7:13:16 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Miami Florida (6-1, ranked 9th) at Virginia Tech (4-3)
These ACC opponents are trending in opposite directions. Miami has won three straight and just beat NC State 44-41, although the Hurricanes failed to cover as 10.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Virginia Tech has lost two of their last three, most recently falling to Liberty 38-25, losing straight up as 17-point favorites. This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is an unranked team coming off a loss favored against a ranked team coming off a win? The public sees an easy layup with Miami. But if it looks too good to be true, it almost always is. Despite roughly two-thirds of bets backing Miami, we've seen this line move further to the Hokies (-2 to -2.5). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Virginia Tech, with pros buying low on the contrarian favorite and fading the trendy dog Hurricanes. 4 p.m. ET: Baylor (1-4) at Texas Tech (2-5)
Both of these Big 12 schools have struggled mightily in 2020, combining to go 3-9 overall. After posting a blowout win over Kansas in the season opener, Baylor has lost four straight. Last week Baylor fell to Iowa State 38-31, although the Bears managed to cover as 14-point underdogs. Meanwhile, Texas Tech started the season 2-3 but has since dropped two in a row, most recently losing to TCU 34-18 and failing to cover as 9.5-point dogs. This line opened with Texas Tech listed as a 2-point home favorite. Pro money has poured in on Baylor, flipped the Bears from + 2 to -1. Some shops are even up to Baylor -1.5. What we are seeing is a classic "dog to favorite" sharp line move on Baylor. We've also seen sharp action hit this under, dropping it from 58 to 56. Weather could have a big effect on the total. The forecast calls for 20-25 MPH winds. 7:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin (1-0, ranked 13th) at Michigan (1-2)
This primetime showdown between Big Ten rivals is the most heavily bet game of the day. It also presents one of the top buy-low contrarian situations. Wisconsin has only played one game so far this season, crushing Illinois 45-7 and easily covering as 20.5-point home favorites. But then the Badgers got hit by the virus and had their next two games postponed. As a result, Wisconsin hasn't played since October 23. Meanwhile, Michigan has fallen on hard times. After throttling Minnesota 49-24 in the season opener, the Wolverines have lost two straight, most recently falling to Indiana last week 38-21, losing straight up as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Badgers and fade the struggling Wolverines. This lopsided action has pushed Wisconsin from -3.5 to -5. Essentially, we are looking at a contrarian value play on Michigan getting an inflated line in a primetime game. The Wolverines also have value as an unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent. More Saturday Line Moves
Boston College + 13 to + 11.5 vs Notre Dame Northwestern -1.5 to -3 vs Purdue SMU + 2.5 to pick'em at Tulsa Army + 5 to + 3 at Tulane Stanford -6.5 to -9 vs Colorado NC State -6.5 to -10.5 vs Florida State Maryland + 27 to + 25 vs Ohio State Nevada -14.5 to -17 vs New Mexico
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Post by Makers on Nov 15, 2020 8:13:04 GMT -5
4:05 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
The Broncos (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) have lost two of their last three games, including a 34-27 loss to the Falcons last week in which they failed to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) have played well as of late, winning two straight and three of their last four. Las Vegas is coming off a 31-26 victory over the Chargers, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Vegas listed as a 4-point home favorite. Early betting pushed the line up to Raiders -5. But since that time we've seen a steady flow of wiseguy money back the road dog, dropping the Broncos from + 5 to + 3.5. The Broncos have value as a road divisional dog, a short road dog + 6 or less and a road team with a line move in their favor. Road division dogs with a line move in their favor are 14-5 ATS (74%) this season. 4:05 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
The Bills (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) are riding a three-game winning streak and just came off a huge upset victory over the Seahawks, winning 44-34 as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) just saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week as they fell to the Dolphins 34-31, losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with the streaking Bills. However, despite the public backing Buffalo, we've seen this line move toward Arizona (-1.5 to -2.5). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cardinals, with pros buying low on Arizona and selling high on the trendy dog Bills in a possible letdown spot after a big win. Pros are banking on a shootout and absolutely love this over. The total has been steamed up from 54 to 56.5. The Bills are 7-2 to the over while the Cardinals are 5-2-1 to the under. 8:20 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots The Ravens (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) beat the sharps last week, taking down the Colts 24-10 despite heavily respected money hitting Indianapolis (+ 3 to -1). Meanwhile, the Patriots (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) snapped a four-game losing streak with a come-from-behind victory over the Jets 30-27 last week, although New England failed to cover as 9-point road favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as 6.5-point road favorites. The public sees an easy win and cover by Baltimore and can't lay the points fast enough. This heavily lopsided action pushed the line up from Ravens -6.5 to -7.5. But then we saw some sharp buyback on the Pats getting the hook (+ 7.5), which has dropped this line back down to 7. The + 7 is being juiced up to -115 across the market, signalling further liability on the Pats. New England has heightened contrarian value as they're only getting about one-third of bets on Sunday Night Football. Primetime dogs are 19-9 ATS (68%) this season. We've also seen a flood of respected money hit this over, driving the total up from 41 to 43. Overs are cashing at a 54% clip this season in the NFL. More Week 10 Line Moves Washington + 4.5 to + 3 at Lions Browns -2.5 to -4 vs Texans Texans-Browns Under 54 to 45.5 Bengals-Packers Under 53 to 47.5 Bucs-Panthers Over 48.5 to 50.5 Chargers + 2.5 to + 1.5 at Dolphins Bengals + 10 to + 7 at Steelers Rams -1.5 to -2.5 vs Seahawks 49ers-Saints Under 51 to 49
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Post by Makers on Nov 16, 2020 7:09:44 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
These NFC North division rivals are trending in opposite directions. But you wouldn't know it based on the win-loss records. After getting off to a disappointing 1-5 start, the Vikings (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) have rebounded in a big way and won two straight, most recently crushing the Lions 34-20 and easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bears (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) started a red-hot 5-1 but have been in a tailspin lately, losing three straight games. Chicago fell to Tennessee 24-17 last week, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. The Vikings are -17 in point differential this season. The Bears are -12.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both backing the streaking Vikings and happy to fade the struggling Bears on a short spread. This lopsided support has pushed Minnesota from -2.5 to -3. The Vikings -3 is juiced up to -120, signaling a possible rise further to -3.5. Road teams with a line move in their favor (aka the Covid system) are 45-32 ATS (58%) on the season. The lead referee, Scott Novak, also favors road teams (57% ATS).
If you bet the Vikings early at -2.5 you beat the closing line and would be wise to just ride out the play. If you're looking to bet the Bears, they now offer inflated line value, especially if you can wait it out and grab them with the hook + 3.5. Chicago has buy-low value as a divisional dog and a contrarian play in a heavily bet primetime game. Divisional dogs are 30-21 ATS (59%) this season. Primetime dogs are 20-10 ATS (66%).
We've also seen some smart money hit this under, dropping the total from 44.5 to 43.5. Weather could play a role as the forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds. The Vikings have been profitable to the over (6-2) this season but the Bears have been a big under team (6-3).
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Post by Makers on Nov 17, 2020 7:07:31 GMT -5
Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team
This non-conference showdown features two cellar dwellers with a combined record of 4-13-1. The Bengals (2-6-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) have been quite profitable to bet on this season, losing at a high rate but managing to cover the vast majority of their games, except for last week when they got crushed by the Steelers 36-10 and failed to cover as 6.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Washington (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) hasn't won or covered much this season. Last week Washington fell to Detroit 30-27, failing to cover as 2.5-point dogs. This line opened at a pick'em. Respected money has come in on Alex Smith at home over visiting rookie Joe Burrow, pushing this line up to Washington -1.5. Washington has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team against a sell-high "good" ATS team. Sharps have hit this over, pushing the total up slightly from 46 to 46.5. The Bengals are 6-3 to the over. Washington is 4-4-1. Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts
This non-conference grudge match between division leaders is arguably one of the most intriguing games of the week. The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the pesky Jaguars 24-20, although Green Bay failed to cover as big 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three of their last four games, including an impressive 34-17 win over the Titans as 1-point favorites last Thursday Night. This line originally opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public says give me the Packers, yet we've seen a massive adjustment toward Indianapolis, with sharp money flipping the Colts from a dog to 2.5-point favorite. The Colts have value as a contrarian favorite in a "fade the trendy dog" situation. Indianapolis has a rest advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Packers are on regular rest. We've also seen pro money hit this over, pushing the total up from 49 to 51.5. Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
This Sunday Night Football matchup pits a pair of divisional rivals riding prolonged winning streaks. The Chiefs (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) have the 2nd-best record in the NFL and have won four straight, most recently beating the Panthers 33-31 but failing to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Raiders (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) have won three straight and just crushed the Broncos 37-12, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs, who are also rested coming off a bye. However, despite this lopsided support, we've actually seen the line fall from Chiefs -7 to -6.5. Some shops are even down to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Raiders, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Las Vegas has value as a divisional dog and a contrarian play in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 20-11 ATS (65%) this season. The Raiders beat the Chiefs 40-32 five weeks ago as 10.5-point dogs.
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Post by Makers on Nov 18, 2020 6:39:06 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Toledo (1-1) at Eastern Michigan (0-2)
This is the most lopsided matchup of Tuesday's three-game slate. After crushing Bowling Green 38-3 in the season opener, Toledo had their hearts broken last week, losing at the last second to Western Michigan 41-38 as a 1-point dog. On the flip side, Eastern Michigan has lost both of their games but covered for spreads. Last week Eastern Michigan fell to Ball State 38-31 but covered as 8.5-point dogs. This line opened with Toledo listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public expects Toledo to bounce back and roll over winless Eastern Michigan. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall from -7 to -6.5, signaling wiseguy money backing the home dog plus the points. We've also seen some sharp action hit this over, pushing the total up from 59.5 to 61. 7 p.m. ET: Western Michigan (2-0) at Central Michigan (2-0)
This battle for Michigan bragging rights features a pair of undefeated teams battling for first place in the MAC West. Western Michigan is coming off a thrilling last-second comeback over Toledo 41-38, miraculously covering as 1-point favorites. Meanwhile, Central Michigan just throttled Northern Illinois 40-10, easily covering as 6-point favorites. Western Michigan possesses the super offense (49.5 PPG vs 35 PPG) while Central Michigan has the better defense (18.5 PPG allowed vs 25.5 PPG allowed). This line opened with Central Michigan listed as a 2-point home favorite. Spread bets are relatively split and the public doesn't know who to take. But we've seen smart money hit Western Michigan, dropping this line down to a pick'em or Western Michigan -1 depending on the book. Depending on who you like here, it might be wiser to take the moneyline. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total slightly from 60.5 to 59.5. The forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds.
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Post by Makers on Nov 19, 2020 6:27:46 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
This Thursday Night showdown features a pair of division rivals with identical records. However, they are trending in opposite directions. The Cardinals (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) are hot and have won four of their last five games. Last week, Arizona shocked Buffalo 32-20 on a last-second Hail Mary, although the Cardinals failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. Conversely, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) started the season 5-0 but have struggled over the past month and gone ice cold, losing three of their last four games. Last week the Seahawks fell to the Rams 23-16, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. The Cardinals are + 56 in point differential. The Seahawks are + 24. This line opened with Seattle listed anywhere between a 3.5-point home favorite and a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. Average Joes like the idea of grabbing points with the streaking Cardinals but are also wary of a desperate Seahawks team due for a bounce back performance. However, despite this split ticket count we've seen a big move to the Cardinals, dropping this line down to the key number of 3. Arizona matches several profitable betting systems this season: divisional dog (30-22, 58% ATS), primetime dog (20-11 ATS, 65% ATS) and short road dog + 6 or less (37-19 ATS, 66% ATS). Road divisional dogs with a line move in their favor are 14-7 ATS (67%) this season. Pros are also looking at a higher scoring game. We've seen them hit the over and steam the total up from 56 to 57.5. The Seahawks have been one of the most profitable over teams this season (6-3). The Cardinals are 5-3-1 to the under. These teams met three weeks ago and the Cardinals won 37-34 in overtime, winning outright as a 3.5-point home dog.
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Post by Makers on Nov 20, 2020 6:17:58 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET : Purdue at Minnesota
This Big Ten West showdown looks incredibly lopsided on paper. Purdue (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Northwestern 27-20 and failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Minnesota (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) is below .500 and just got crushed by Iowa 35-7, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees Minnesota coming off a blowout loss and has no problem laying the short spread with Purdue, who also has a better record. However, despite this heavy betting on the Boilermakers, we've seen Purdue fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog Gophers, with pros buying low on Minnesota + 3. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 62.5 to 61. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (30 degrees) and 10 MPH winds. Purdue is 3-0 to the under. Minnesota is 2-2. Keep an eye on the injury report as Purdue's starting quarterback Aidan O'Connell is questionable with an injury. 9:30 p.m. ET: New Mexico at Air Force
This Mountain West matchup between winless teams is the late game of the night. New Mexico (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) fell to Nevada 27-20 last week, although they covered as 17.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Air Force (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) hasn't played since October 31 due to a string of positive COVID tests. In their last game, Air Force got crushed by Boise State 49-30, failing to cover as 13-point dogs. This line opened with Air Force listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public says lay the wood with Air Force, yet we've seen this line tumble down from -9.5 to -7.5. This two-point reverse line move signals pro action getting down on road dog New Mexico plus the points. More Friday Line Moves
FAU -31.5 to -33.5 vs UMass Louisville -18 to -19 vs Syracuse
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Post by Makers on Nov 21, 2020 7:35:27 GMT -5
3:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati (7-0, ranked 7th) at Central Florida (5-2)
This American Conference matchup is one of the one of the most heavily bet games of the day. Cincinnati enters undefeated, having just crushed East Carolina 55-17 and easily covered as 27.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Central Florida is riding a three-game winning streak. Last week UCF took down Temple 38-13, although they failed to cover as 28.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the highly ranked Bearcats, which pushed this line up to Cincy -6. But then, over the past 48-hours, we've seen a steady dose of UCF money show up, dropping this line down to 5 or even 4.5 across the board. Central Florida has value as an unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent with late sharp movement. UFC is also your top contrarian play as only one-third of bets are backing the Knights. In other words, if you're looking to bet against the public and place yourself on the side of the house, UFC is your play. Unranked teams against ranked opponents are 63-52 ATS (55%) this season. We've also seen Pros and Joes hit this over, driving the total up from 62.5 to 65.5.
7:30 p.m. ET: Liberty (8-0, ranked 21st) at NC State (5-3)
This primetime showdown is arguably the top Pros vs Joes game of the day. Liberty enters undefeated, having just crushed Western Carolina 58-14, covering as 39-point home favorites. Similarly, NC State just took down Florida State 38-22, covering as 12-point home favorites. This line opened with NC State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is the "inferior" team NC State listed as the favorite? If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is. The public says give me undefeated Liberty plus the points, yet we've seen this line move further toward NC State (-3.5 to -5). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Wolfpack with pro money fading trendy dog Liberty. NC State has value as a rare contrarian favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. Both teams are 6-2 to the over. Despite this trend, we've seen the total drop from 67 to 65.5, signaling sharp under money.
7:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State (5-1, ranked 14th) at Oklahoma (5-2, ranked 18th)
This primetime Big 12 grudge match features two ranked teams and bitter rivals battling for in-state bragging rights. Oklahoma State just took down Kansas State 20-18, although they failed to cover as 14-point favorites. On the flip side, Oklahoma just crushed Kansas 62-9, easily covering as 38.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public has no problem laying the wood with the high-scoring Sooners. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing the home favorite, we've seen this line tumble down to Sooner -7. Why would the line drop if the public is backing Oklahoma? Because respected pro money has gotten down on Oklahoma State plus the points, causing a sharp line move in their direction. OK State has value as a conference road dog against a ranked opponent. We've seen some pro money hit this over, jacking up the total from 59 to 60.5.
More Saturday Line Moves
Boise State-Hawaii Under 63 to 56 (20 MPH winds)
Alabama -30 to -32 vs Kentucky
Penn State + 3 to + 1 vs Iowa
Michigan -7.5 to -11.5 at Rutgers
Oregon State + 5 to + 3 vs California
Duke + 6 to + 4.5 vs Wake Forest
UTSA -8 to -10 at Southern Miss
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Post by Makers on Nov 22, 2020 7:19:11 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The Falcons (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) got off to a putrid 0-5 start but have since gone 3-1 over their past four games, most recently beating the Broncos 34-27 and covering as 4.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints (7-2, 4-5 ATS) have ripped off six straight wins and just took down the 49ers 27-13, covering as 9.5-point favorites. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7-point favorite. But we've seen a massive adjustment with the news that Drew Brees will miss this game due to injury and Taysom Hill will start in his place. The quarterback switch, along with some sharp Falcons money, has dropped this line down to Saints -3.5. The Falcons have value as a road divisional dog with a line move in their favor (14-7 ATS, 67% this season). Atlanta also has a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and New Orleans is on regular rest. Sharp action has also hit this under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 49. 1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football TeamThe Bengals (2-6-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) have been quite profitable to bet on this season, losing at a high rate but managing to cover the vast majority of their games, except for last week when they got crushed by the Steelers 36-10 and failed to cover as 6.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Washington (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) hasn't won or covered much this season. Last week Washington fell to Detroit 30-27, failing to cover as 2.5-point dogs. This line opened at a pick'em. A slight majority of bets are backing Cincinnati, but respected money has come in on Alex Smith at home over visiting rookie Joe Burrow, pushing this line up to Washington -1.5. Washington has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team against a sell-high "good" ATS team. If you're wary of laying the points in what could be a close game, Washington is roughly -125 on the moneyline here. Sharps have hit this over, pushing the total up slightly from 46 to 46.5. The Bengals are 6-3 to the over. Washington is 4-4-1. 4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis ColtsThe Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the pesky Jaguars 24-20, although Green Bay failed to cover as big 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three of their last four games, including an impressive 34-17 win over the Titans as 1-point favorites last Thursday Night. This line originally opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public says give me the Packers, yet we've seen a massive adjustment toward Indianapolis, with sharp money flipping the Colts from a dog to 1.5-point favorite. Indianapolis even reached -2.5 at one point before. The Colts have value as a contrarian favorite in a "fade the trendy dog" situation. Indianapolis also has a rest advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Packers are on regular rest. We've also seen pro money hit this over, pushing the total up from 49 to 51.5. More Sunday Line Moves
Eagles + 3 to + 2.5 at Browns Patriots + 2.5 to -2 at Texans Titans + 7 to + 6 at Ravens Dolphins -2.5 to -3.5 at Broncos Cowboys + 9.5 to + 7 at Vikings
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Post by Makers on Nov 23, 2020 7:45:05 GMT -5
Sunday
Sharps lost on the Eagles (+ 3.5 to + 2.5) and Falcons (+ 7 to + 3.5). Both teams received heavy wiseguy action and big line movement but it was all for naught as the Browns and Saints rolled. Pros did, however, cash on Washington (pick'em to -1.5) and Colts (+ 2.5 to -1.5). Indianapolis was a massive hit for wiseguys. The public was all over the Packers, yet we saw the line heavily in favor of the Colts. This was a classic "fade the trendy dog" scenario that proved victorious for pros
Monday
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bettors are in for a treat with this Monday Night Football showdown as it features two of the NFC's top playoff contenders. The Rams (6-3 SU, 5-4) are coming off an impressive 23-16 win over the Seahawks, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) rebounded from a 38-3 beatdown by the Saints in Week 9 with a resounding 46-23 win over the Panthers last week, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Rams are + 48 in point differential. The Bucs are + 70.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to take. On the one hand, they love getting points with a good team like the Rams. But they are also wary of betting against Tom Brady laying a short spread. Despite this even betting, we've seen the Bucs move from -3.5 to -4. Some shops are even hanging -4.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this adjustment toward Tampa Bay was caused by respected pro money backing the Bucs. Jerome Boger is the lead ref tonight, which also favors Tampa. Home teams are 56% ATS when Boger is the head official.
Despite the line move against them, the Rams fit a pair of profitable systems this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 38-24 ATS (61%) this season and primetime dogs are 21-12 ATS (64%).
We've also seen some wiseguy money hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48. Primetime unders are 21-12 (64%) this season. The Rams are a big under team (7-2) while the Bucs have been profitable to the over (6-4).
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