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Post by Makers on Nov 24, 2020 7:27:37 GMT -5
Week 12Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
This non-division, conference showdown looks lopsided on paper. The Chargers (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) are tied for the 4th-worst record in the AFC while the Bills (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) are tied for the 3rd-best. The Chargers snapped a three-game losing skid last week, beating the Jets 34-28 but failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills had their three-game winning streak come to an end their last time out when they lost to the Cardinals 32-30 on a last-second Hail Mary, although they managed to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public says give me Bills Mafia off a bye against an inferior team. However, despite the majority of tickets laying the points with Buffalo, we've seen this line tumble from -6 to -5.5. This signals some respected money coming in on Justin Herbert and the Chargers, causing reverse line movement in their favor. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 39-24 ATS (62%) this season. We've also seen a barrage of money hit this over, pushing the total up from 51.5 to 54.5. Both teams have been excellent to the over this season. Los Angeles is 7-3 and Buffalo is 8-2. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
This non-conference matchup features a pair of teams looking to bounce back from disappointing losses. The Cardinals (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) have lost two of their last three games, most recently falling to the Seahawks 28-21 last Thursday night, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) saw their two-game win streak come to an end last week, losing to the Texans 27-20 as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public has given up on New England and is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. However, every time the oddsmakers move this line from Cardinals -2.5 to -3, they've been getting hit with Patriots buyback getting the key number of + 3, dropping the line back down to 2.5. The Patriots have value as a buy-low short contrarian home dog. We've also seen a steady diet of over money hit the market, driving the total up from 48 to 49.5. This rise is intriguing because both teams have actually been profitable to the under, with the Cardinals 6-3-1 and Patriots 6-4. Weather shouldn't be an issue in this one. The forecast calls for high 40s, clear skies and little to no wind, perfect football conditions. Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
These NFC West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Saints 27-13 and failing to cover as 9.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won two in a row and just posted a huge upset win over the Bucs on Monday Night Football, winning 27-24 as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is more than happy to fade the struggling 49ers and lay the points with the Rams after an impressive primetime. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen pros buy low on the 49ers, dropping the line down from 7 to 6.5. San Francisco has value as a divisional dog (31-24 ATS, 56% this season). San Francisco also has a big rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and the Rams are on a short week having played Monday night. The Cowboys (+ 7, beat Vikings 31-28 in Week 11) and Dolphins (+ 3.5, beat Rams 28-17 in Week 8) both covered in this ultimate "rest vs tired" spot earlier this season. Dogs off a bye are 5-3 ATS (62%) this season.
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Post by Makers on Nov 26, 2020 10:47:00 GMT -5
12:30 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
This early Turkey Day showdown features two non-conference opponents coming off polar opposite Week 11 performances. The Texans (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) just pulled off a big 27-20 upset win over the Patriots, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Lions (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a listless effort against the Panthers, losing 20-0 as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Texans off a big win and fade the struggling Lions. This lopsided support has pushed the line up to the key number of 3. The next move will be critical. If you see this line jump to -3.5, that will signal continued support for the Texans. However, if this line edges down toward 2.5, that will likely mean pros grabbed the Lions plus the points. Detroit has value as a contrarian dog in a heavily bet game and a buy-low home dog off a blowout loss. The total opened at 51, got bet up slightly to 51.5 and then came back down to 51. The public is leaning over, but this sharp line freeze indicates some under liability. 4:30 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys
This longtime holiday rivalry renews late afternoon on Thanksgiving day. Both of these NFC East rivals are coming off wins and still alive in the division race. Washington (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) just took down the Bengals 20-9, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. The Cowboys (3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS) are coming off a huge upset of the Vikings 31-28, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public says give me the Cowboys laying the short spread. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen the line remain frozen at 3. In fact, the juice on the Washington + 3 is -120, indicating liability on the Football Team and a possible drop down to 2.5. Washington has value as a divisional dog (31-24 ATS, 56% this season) and a short road dog + 6 or less (38-24 ATS, 61%). Clay Martin, the lead ref, is roughly 70% ATS to road teams. We've also seen some sharp money hit this under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46.
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Post by Makers on Nov 27, 2020 7:23:15 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Iowa State (6-2, ranked 13th) at Texas (5-2, ranked 17th)
This early Friday matchup features two Big 12 rivals fighting for supremacy at the top of the conference standings. Iowa State has won three straight, most recently blanking Kansas State 45-0 last week, easily covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Texas has also won three straight. The Longhorns are coming off a "bye" as their game last week against Kansas was cancelled due to COVID. Prior to that, Texas beat West Virginia 17-13 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 2-point home favorite. Spread bets are split with the public slightly leaning toward the Longhorns. However, we've seen this line fall from Texas -2 to -1. This signals respected wiseguy money grabbing the points with road dog Iowa State. The Cyclones have value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor. 4:30 p.m. ET: Stanford (0-2) at California (0-2)
This late afternoon Pac 12 matchup pits two struggling teams desperate to post their first victory of the season. Stanford is coming off a "bye" as their game against Washington State was cancelled last week due to COVID. Their last time out, Stanford fell to Colorado 35-32, losing outright as 9.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, California is coming off a 31-27 loss to Oregon State, losing outright as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Cal listed as a 2-point home favorite. Pros and Joes have both loaded up on Stanford. This lopsided action has flipped the Cardinal from + 2 to -2. Stanford fits the "dog to favorite" line move system. If you're wary of laying the short spread, Stanford is -120 on the moneyline. More Friday line moves
Oregon State + 14 to + 13.5 vs Oregon Notre Dame-North Carolina Over 66 to 69 Nebraska-Iowa Over 52.5 to 53.5
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Post by Makers on Nov 28, 2020 10:40:30 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Maryland (2-1) at Indiana (4-1, ranked 12th)
This Big Ten battle is one of the most heavily bet early games on the Saturday slate. Maryland is riding an impressive two-game winning streak, most recently beating Penn State 35-19 as massive 27.5-point dogs. But then COVID struck and the Terps had their next two games cancelled. Maryland will be playing their first game since November 7. On the flip side, Indiana suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Ohio State 42-35 but covering as 21-point road dogs. This line opened with Indiana listed as a 14-point home favorite. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS and the public is riding the hot hand once again. However, despite a slight majority of bets laying the points, we've seen sharp money hit the road dog Terps, dropping Indiana from -14 to -11.5. Maryland has buy-low value as an unranked double-digit road conference dog against a ranked opponent. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 62.5 to 64. 12 p.m. ET: Penn State (0-5) at Michigan (2-3)Both of these Big Ten powerhouses have been massive disappointments this season. Penn State is winless through five games for the first time in team history. The Nittany Lions just got waxed by Iowa 41-21, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Michigan snapped a three-game losing streak last week with a 48-42 triple OT win over Rutgers, although the Wolverines failed to cover as 12-point road favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is all over Michigan laying a short spread at home against a winless team. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen this line fall all the way down to a pick'em. This signals massive sharp reverse line movement on road dog Penn State. The Nittany Lions also have marquee contrarian value as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in the most heavily bet game of the day. If you like betting against the public and placing yourself on the side of the house, Penn State is your top play of the day. 3 p.m. ET: North Texas (3-3) at UTSA (6-4)
This Conference-USA West division showdown pits a pair of rivals riding two-game winning streaks. North Texas just took down Rice 27-17, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, UTSA edged Southern Miss 23-20 last week, although they failed to cover as 9-point road favorites. This line opened with UTSA listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is leaning on the home favorite Roadrunners laying a short spread. However, despite a majority of bets laying the points, we've seen this line tumble from UTSA -5 to -2.5. Some books are even down to 2. This notable reverse line movement was caused by pros grabbing the points with road dog North Texas. The Mean Green have value as a road conference dog and a short road dog + 4 or less, a "grinder" spot that has covered roughly 54% over the past decade. More Saturday line moves
Pitt-Clemson Over 55 to 57 Northwestern -12 to -13.5 at Michigan State Kent State-Buffalo Over 66 to 68 Kentucky-Florida Over 58 to 61 Mississippi State-Mississippi Over 67 to 69.5 Rutgers-Purdue Over 58 to 61 Toledo -9 to -10 vs Ball State Western Michigan -19 to -20 vs Northern Illinois UCLA -9.5 to -10.5 vs Arizona
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Post by Makers on Nov 29, 2020 6:18:51 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts
This AFC South grudge match has huge playoff implications as both teams are tied atop the division standings. The Titans (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) have won two of their last three games, including a huge upset win over the Ravens last week 30-24, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Similarly, the Colts (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won two straight and just posted a dramatic win over the Packers 34-31, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Colts listed anywhere between 3.5-point and 4.5-point home favorites. A slight majority of bets, along with a heavy dose of respected money, is coming on the road dog Titans, droppIng Tennessee down to + 3. The Titans have value as a divisional dog (32-24 ATS, 57% this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (40-24 ATS, 62%) and a road team with a line move in their favor (51-38 ATS, 57%). This is also a revenge spot for the Titans, who got embarrassed by the Colts 34-17 two weeks ago, losing as 1-point home dogs. The Colts will be without two key players due to COVID: defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and running back Jonathan Taylor. Pros are also eying this over, which has risen from 49.5 to 51. Both teams have been profitable to the over, with the Titans 7-2-1 and the Colts 6-4. 1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
The Chargers (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) are tied for the 4th-worst record in the AFC while the Bills (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) are tied for the 3rd-best. The Chargers snapped a three-game losing skid last week, beating the Jets 34-28 but failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills had their three-game winning streak come to an end their last time out when they lost to the Cardinals 32-30 on a last-second Hail Mary, although they managed to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public says give me Bills Mafia off a bye against an inferior team. However, despite the majority of tickets laying the points with Buffalo, we've seen this line tumble from -6 to -4.5. This signals respected money coming in on Justin Herbert and the Chargers, causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 39-24 ATS (62%) this season. We've also seen some over money raise this total from 51 to 52. Both teams have been excellent to the over this season. Los Angeles is 7-3 and Buffalo is 8-2. 4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Saints 27-13 and failing to cover as 9.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won two in a row and just posted a huge upset win over the Bucs on Monday Night Football, winning 27-24 as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is more than happy to fade the struggling 49ers and lay the points with the Rams after an impressive primetime. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Rams fall from -7 to -6.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the 49ers. San Francisco has value as a divisional dog (32-24 ATS, 57% this season). San Francisco also has a big rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and the Rams are on a short week having played Monday night. The Cowboys (+ 7, beat Vikings 31-28 in Week 11) and Dolphins (+ 3.5, beat Rams 28-17 in Week 8) both covered in this ultimate "rest vs tired" spot earlier this season. Dogs off a bye are 5-3 ATS (62%) this season. We've also seen some under money drop this total from 46.5 to 44.5.
More Sunday Line Moves
Saints -5.5 to -14.5 at Broncos (no Denver QBs) Chiefs-Bucs Over 54 to 56.5 Panthers + 4 to + 3 at Vikings Browns -6 to -7 at Jags Giants -4.5 to -6 at Bengals Patriots + 2.5 to + 2 vs Cardinals
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Fish
Premium Member
Posts: 3,502
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Post by Fish on Nov 29, 2020 6:37:28 GMT -5
Wide receiver Kendal Hinton will start as the QB for Denver. He played QB at Wake Forest.
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Post by Makers on Nov 29, 2020 7:32:25 GMT -5
Thanks
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Post by Makers on Nov 30, 2020 6:24:34 GMT -5
Sharps and contrarians and sportsbooks feasted on Sunday, as Week 12 dogs went 8-4 ATS with four outright wins and unders went 8-4. Nearly every chalky favorite failed to cover for the public as unpopular dogs barked loudly for those brave enough to grab the points instead of lay them. Here are the four dog outright winners
49ers (+ 5) beat Rams 23-20 Falcons (+ 3.5) beat Raiders 43-6 Titans (+ 3) beat Colts 45-26 Patriots (+ 1) beat Cardinals 20-17 This Monday Night Football matchup looks like a no brainer. The Seahawks (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) snapped a two game losing skid last Thursday, beating the Cardinals 28-21 and covering as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Eagles (3-6-1 SU, 3-7 ATS) have lost two straight and just fell to the Browns 22-17, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover by Seattle and they are absolutely hammering the Seahawks. This lopsided support has pushed Seattle from -5.5 to -6.5. The Eagles are the top contrarian play of the week as they are only getting about one-third of bets in a primetime game. Philadelphia is also receiving inflated line value as a home dog, much like the Falcons, Jags and Bengals on Sunday. Primetime dogs are 22-13 ATS (63%) this season. The Eagles also have buy low value as a "bad" ATS team (3-7) against a sell high "good" ATS team (6-4). Pro money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 52 to 48.5. Primetime unders are 21-14 (60%) this season. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds at Lincoln Financial Field.
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Post by Makers on Dec 1, 2020 7:10:38 GMT -5
Week 13Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
If the playoffs started today both of these teams would be in, with Tennessee the 3-seed and Cleveland the 5-seed. The Browns (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) have won three straight, most recently fending off the Jags 27-25 last week but failing to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Titans (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won two straight and just crushed the Colts 45-26, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to take. On the one hand, both teams are 8-3 so how can you not grab the Browns getting the points? But then again, the Titans have been rolling in recent weeks while Cleveland is barely eking out wins. However, despite this split ticket count, we've seen pros hammer the Titans, pushing Tennessee up from -4 to -5.5. Pros have also targeted the over, d riving the total up from 52 to 54. Both teams are profitable to the over, with the Browns 6-5 and the Titans 8-2-1. Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Both of these NFC West rivals are jockeying for playoff positioning and looking to rebound from disappointing losses. The Rams (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) just fell to the 49ers 23-20, losing outright as 5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Patriots 20-17 and failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Wiseguys think this line is a bit low and have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Rams. This respected action has pushed Los Angeles from -1.5 to -2.5. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. If this line reaches 3, expect some buyback on the divisional dog Cardinals getting the key number. Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 49 to 48.5. Both of these teams are profitable to the under, with the Rams 8-3 and the Cardinals 7-3-1. Historically, late season divisional unders have been a smart bet. Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
This non-division AFC showdown features one team fighting for their playoff life and the other totally out of it and looking to secure a high draft pick. The Patriots (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) kept their faint postseason hopes alive last week with a 20-17 win over the Cardinals, winning outright as a 1-point home dog. Meanwhile, the Chargers (3-8 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) just fell to the Bills 27-17, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. Los Angeles is 1-4 in their last five games while the Patriots are 3-1 over their last four games . This line opened with the Chargers listed as 2.5-point home favorites. Pro bettors have pounced on the Patriots getting points, which has dropped the line all the way down to a pick'em. Road teams with a line move in their favor are 55-45 ATS (55%) this season. Wiseguys have also gotten down on the under as we've seen the total fall from 49 to 47. The Pats are 7-4 to the under this season while the Chargers are 7-4 to the over.
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Post by Makers on Dec 2, 2020 6:25:52 GMT -5
3:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
This AFC North grudge match was supposed to be played in primetime on Thanksgiving night. Instead it was pushed back to this afternoon as a result of the plethora of positive COVID tests by Baltimore players and support personnel.
After starting the season 5-1, the Ravens (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) have fallen on hard times over the past month, going just 1-3 in their last four games. Baltimore is mired in a two-game losing skid and just fell to the Titans 30-34, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) continue to roll as the NFL's only remaining undefeated team. Pittsburgh just crushed the Jaguars 27-3, easily covering as 10.5-point road favorites.
This line originally opened with the Steelers listed as a 3-point or 4-point home favorite. But then the game went off the board and re-opened at Steelers -10, thanks in large part to Lamar Jackson missing this game and Robert Griffin III starting in his place. The public wants nothing to do with the COVID-stricken Ravens and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the unbeaten Steelers. However, despite this lopsided support, the line hasn't budged off of Pittsburgh -10. This signals some liability on the road dog Ravens. Keep an eye out for a line move this morning and afternoon leading up to the game. If you see a game-day move down to 9.5, that will signal some pro money grabbing the Ravens. If it rises to -10.5, that could be a sign that late money is doubling down on the Steelers.
Baltimore has buy-low contrarian value in a heavily bet game. The Ravens are also a divisional dog (34-26 ATS, 57% this season) and a double-digit dog in a low total revenge game. These teams met roughly a month ago, with Pittsburgh winning 28-24 as a 4-point road dog.
Pros and Joes seem to be united on the over. We've seen the total tick up from 42 to 42.5. Low totals of 42.5 or less are 11-6 (65%) this season. Also, the lead ref Jerome Boger has been profitable to road teams (60% ATS) and overs (54%).
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Post by Makers on Dec 3, 2020 6:36:59 GMT -5
6 p.m. ET: Louisiana Tech (4-3) at North Texas (3-4)
This early evening Conference USA matchup looks like a layup on paper. Louisiana Tech has a winning record and just took down UAB 37-24 in double overtime. On the flip side, North Texas has a losing record and just got crushed by UTSA 49-17. This line opened with Louisiana Tech listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back Louisiana Tech as a short favorite. After all, they are the "better" team off a win. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with Louisiana Tech, we've seen a massive adjustment toward North Texas, with the Mean Green moving from + 2.5 to -1.5. In other words, we are seeing a razor sharp reverse line movement on North Texas, flipping them from a dog to a favorite. This signals pro money backing North Texas as a contrarian home favorite. If a line looks fishy, there's a reason behind it. It might have something to do with the COVID layoff for Louisiana Tech. They are playing their first game since Oct. 31 and may be rusty.
9:30 p.m. ET: Air Force (2-2) at Utah State (1-4)
This late night Mountain West grudge match features a pair of teams coming off impressive wins. Air Force just snapped a two game losing skid with a 28-0 shutout win over New Mexico. Meanwhile, Utah State just got their first one of the season by upsetting New Mexico 41-27. This line opened with Air Force listed as a 10.5-point road favorite. A slight majority of bets, but also a heavy sharp of sharp money, has come down on Air Force, which has pushed this line up from -10.5 to -11.5. Air Force has a rest advantage coming off a "bye" week while Utah State played last week. Air Force is averaging 26 PPG on offense and giving up 18.3 PPG on defense. Utah State is averaging 17.2 PPG on offense while allowing 35.2 PPG on defense. One big advantage for Air Force here may be their triple option offense against a porous run defense in Utah State.
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Post by Makers on Dec 5, 2020 5:32:45 GMT -5
2 p.m. ET: Texas A&M (6-1, ranked 5th) at Auburn (5-3)
This SEC matchup looks like an easy blowout on paper. Texas A&M has won five straight, most recently beating LSU 20-7 but failing to cover as 15.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Auburn just got waxed by Alabama 42-13, failing to cover as 24.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public says give me the highly ranked Aggies laying a short spread against an unranked team that just got blown out. However, despite a majority of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall from Texas A&M -6.5 to -5.5. This indicates respected wiseguy money buying low on Auburn at home plus the points. The Tigers have value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. Pro money has also come down on this under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48. Both teams are profitable to the under, with Texas A&M 4-3 and Auburn 7-1. 3:30 p.m. ET: Boston College (6-4) at Virginia (4-4)
This ACC showdown features one of the sharpest line moves of the day. Boston College has won two of their last three games and just beat Louisville 34-27, covering as 1-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Virginia got off to an awful 1-4 start but has since won three straight, most recently crushing Abilene Christian 55-15, covering as 38.5-point home favorites. Virginia didn't play last week as their game against Florida State was postponed due to COVID. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know whether to take or lay the points. However, despite this even ticket count, we've seen Virginia tumble from -6.5 to -3.5. This signals heavy pro money Boston College plus the points. The Eagles have value as a road conference dog with a line move. Short road dogs + 4 or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. 3:30 p.m. ET: West Virginia (5-3) at Iowa State (7-2, ranked 9th)
This Big 12 grudge match has major bragging rights and postseason aspirations on the line. West Virginia has won two of their last three games and just took down TCU 24-6, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. West Virginia is on a "bye" week as their most recent game against Oklhoma was postponed. On the other hand, Iowa State has won four straight games, including a 23-20 win over Texas last week as a 1.5-point road favorite. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is leaning on laying the points with the ranked Cyclones at home against an unranked opponent. However, we've seen this line move toward West Virginia + 7 to + 6.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the Mountaineers. We've also seen some over money hit the market, driving the total up slightly from 48.5 to 49.5. The weather should be perfect: mid 40s, clear and little to no wind. More Saturday Line Moves
Fresno State + 7 to + 6.5 at Nevada Tulane -1.5 to -3 vs Memphis Wyoming -16.5 to -18 at New Mexico UCLA + 4 to + 3 at Arizona State Iowa -12.5 to -13.5 at Illinois Utah -10 to -11.5 vs Oregon State Tulsa -11 to -12 at Navy Penn State -10.5 to -12 at Rutgers Georgia Tech + 7 to + 6.5 at NC State Arkansas-Missouri Over 51.5 to 53.5 Kansas-Texas Tech Under 64.5 to 62.5
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Post by Makers on Dec 6, 2020 9:17:55 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Both of these NFC North opponents are struggling mightily and desperate for a win. The Lions (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) have lost two straight, most recently succumbing to the Texans 41-25 on Thanksgiving and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. After the game, the Lions fired Head Coach Matt Patricia. Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell will take over in his place. Meanwhile, the Bears (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) are mired in a five-game losing skid and just fell to the Packers 41-25, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Chicago listed anywhere between a 3.5-point and 5-point home favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. But we've seen respected money grab the Lions and the points, dropping the line down to the key number of 3. The Lions have value as a divisional dog (35-26 ATS, 57% this season) and a short road dog + 6 or less (43-25 ATS, 63%). Detroit has a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Bears played Sunday. The Lions could also receive a "new coach boost" with Bevell taking over for Patricia. Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically benefited road teams (73% ATS).
1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
These NFC South rivals are both coming off wins. But one is the number one playoff seed in the NFC while the other has a microscopic shot at making the postseason. The Saints (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) just waxed the QB-less Broncos 31-3, easily covering as massive 17-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) have quietly won three of their last four games. most recently crushing the Raiders 43-6 last week, easily winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Saints listed as 3-point road favorites. The public is pounding New Orleans. However, despite this lopsided support, the line has remained frozen at 3 or even dipped to 2.5. This signals sharp liability on Atlanta plus the points. Home divisional dogs are 14-6 ATS (70%) this season. Sharps have also hit this under, driving the total down from 47.5 to 46. This matches a profitable late season divisional under system. This is also a revenge spot for the Falcons. In Week 11, New Orleans beat Atlanta 24-9, covering as 3.5-point favorites.
4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Both of these NFC West foes are jockeying for playoff positioning and looking to rebound from disappointing losses. The Rams (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) just fell to the 49ers 23-20, losing outright as 5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Patriots 20-17 and failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Early action steamed Los Angeles from -1.5 to -3. But now that the line has reached the key number of 3 we've seen a lot of respected buyback on Arizona, dropping this line back down to 2.5 at some shops. The Cardinals have value as a divisional dog with an inflated line. Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 49 to 48.5. Both of these teams are profitable to the under, with the Rams 8-3 and the Cardinals 7-3-1. Historically, late season divisional unders have been a smart bet.
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Post by Makers on Dec 7, 2020 7:40:05 GMT -5
Contrarian bettors and sportsbooks continued their hot streak on Sunday, as NFL Week 13 dogs went 7-5 ATS with four outright wins and unders went 8-4. Dogs improved to 104-79-2 ATS (56.8%) on the season. Overs still lead on the season (93-92-4), but yesterday marked the fourth consecutive winning week for unders (32-20, 62% since Week 10).
5 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers
This early Monday Night Football showdown features a pair of non-conference opponents riding win streaks. Washington (4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) has won two straight games, most recently upsetting the Cowboys on Thanksgiving 41-16, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) remain the only undefeated team in the NFL and just beat the Ravens 19-14, although they failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public is all over the streaking Steelers. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this number plummet down to 6.5, signaling heavy respected money grabbing Washington plus the points. Washington holds a distinct rest advantage in this one, having last played on Thanksgiving (November 26) while the Steelers just played on Wednesday (Dec. 2). It will be a short turnaround for Pittsburgh while Washington is rested and ready to go. Dogs with a line move in their favor are 51-31 ATS (62%) this season. Washington also has value as a dog with a low total. We've seen sharp money drop this total from 44.5 to 43.5. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56%). 8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers
This late Monday Night Football matchup will be a "home" game for San Francisco but will actually be played in Arizona at the Cardinals' stadium. The Bills (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) returned from their bye with a 27-17 win over the Chargers last week, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) also returned from their bye last week and snapped a three-game losing skid with an impressive 23-20 win over the Rams, winning outright as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bills listed as 3-point road favorites. The public says give me the streaking Bills laying a short spread. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line drop from -3 all the way down to a pick'em. T his signals sharp reverse line movement on the 49ers with pro money buying low on San Francisco. The 49ers are contrarian in a heavily bet game. The under has gotten hit, falling from 48 to 47. Primetime unders are 23-14 (62%) this season. Tony Corrente, the lead referee, is one of the best under umpires in the NFL (58%).
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Post by Makers on Dec 8, 2020 6:39:25 GMT -5
NFL underdogs continued their torrid stretch on Monday, going 2-0 ATS with a pair of outright wins. In the early game, the Washington Football Team (+ 6) came up huge for sharps and contrarians, upsetting the Steelers 23-17 and ending Pittsburgh's undefeated season. Washington received massive sharp action (+ 10 to + 6) and cashed + 225 on the moneyline. Dogs with a line move in their favor are now 52-31 ATS (63%) on the season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are now 47-25 ATS (65%). 8:05 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens
This rare Tuesday Night matchup features a pair of struggling non-conference opponents desperate for a victory. The Cowboys (3-8 SU, 2-9 ATS) are just 1-5 over their last six games, including an embarrassing 41-16 beatdown at the hands of Washington on Thanksgiving Day, losing straight up as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) have lost three straight and four of their last five, most recently falling to the Steelers 19-14 last week, although they managed to cover as 10.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. A slight majority of bets, along with some respected early money, has come down on the Ravens, driving this line up to -8.5. Then some Dallas buyback showed up, dropping this line back down to 8 across the board. If you see this line fall back to 7.5, that will indicate some late money on Dallas plus the points. The Cowboys have value as a primetime dog (25-13 ATS, 66%) and a buy-low dog off a blowout. Teams off a blowout loss of 20+ points have covered roughly 56% of the time over the past decade. Dallas also enjoys a massive rest vs tired advantage, similar to Washington against Pittsburgh last night. Dallas last played on Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 26) while Baltimore is on a short week and just played on Wednesday (December 2). Brad Rogers, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (57% ATS). The total is 45.5. The forecast calls for low 30s and roughly 10 MPH winds. The under is 32-21 ATS (60%) over the past four weeks. The Cowboys are 6-5 to the over while the Ravens are 7-4 to the under. Lamar Jackson has been cleared from COVID and will start at quarterback for Baltimore.
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