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Post by Gooba on Nov 12, 2021 20:22:21 GMT -5
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Post by Gooba on Nov 12, 2021 20:23:49 GMT -5
Sunday games
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (4-5)
— Jaguars won two of last three games, after an 0-20 skid.
— Jacksonville already has five losses by 10+ points.
— Jaguars have one TD on their last 18 drives.
— Jacksonville is minus-9 in turnovers (4-13)
— Last four years, Jaguars are 8-13-2 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last three years, Jacksonville is 14-20 ATS overall as dogs.
— Jaguars converted 28 of 94 third down plays (29.8%).
— Six of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— Colts covered five of their last six games.
— Indy is 14-10-2 last 26 games as a home favorite.
— Last six weeks, Colts outscored opponents 85-45 in first half.
— Last four games, Colts outscored opponents 69-46 in second half.
— Colts have 19 takeaways in last eight games (+10)
— Last five years, Colts are 7-11-2 ATS in AFC South home games.
— Last 11 years, Indy is 5-2-1 ATS as double digit favorites.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.
— Home side won last six series games.
— Jaguars are 3-1-2 ATS in last six visits to Indy.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Cleveland (5-4) @ New England (5-4)
— Cleveland lost three of its last five games.
— Browns allowed 14-15-16 points in last three games.
— Mayfield threw for 9.0 yards/attempt in first post-Beckham game.
— Cleveland outscored foes 42-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Cleveland is 1-3 in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Browns are 11-9-1 ATS last 21 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Cleveland is 8-12 ATS in last 20 road games.
— Over is 3-1 in Browns’ four road games.
— New England won four of last five games, scoring 31.8 ppg.
— Patriots are 1-4 SU at home, with only win over Jets.
— Since 2013, New England is 43-23-3 ATS at home.
— Patriots are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Patriots are +8 in turnovers in their wins, minus-6 in losses.
— New England has 13 takeaways in last five games (+6)
— Last five games, New England had 26 plays of 20+ yards (+5).
— Four of last five Patriot games went over the total.
— Patriots won seven of last eight series games.
— Browns covered once in last five trips to Foxboro.
Atlanta (4-4) @ Dallas (6-2)
— Atlanta won/covered last four games away from home.
— Atlanta’s last six games were all decided by 7 or less points.
— Falcons led their last six games at halftime.
— Atlanta has been outscored 146-82 in second half.
— Last three years, Atlanta is 9-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Falcons are 3-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Atlanta is 12-16 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Atlanta games.
— Last two games, Cowboys were outscored 26-3 in first half.
— Dallas is 7-1 ATS; they gave up 31-30 points in losses.
— Cowboys have no takeaways in last two games (-4).
— Last three years, Dallas is 8-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last six years, Dallas is 16-15-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Cowboys are 3-11-1 ATS last 15 games as non-divisional HF.
— Over is 5-3 in Cowboys’ games this season.
— NFC East home teams are 5-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Last time these teams met, Dallas DC Quinn was Atlanta’s head coach.
— Cowboys won last two series games, 40-39/22-19.
— Falcons covered three of last four visits to Dallas.
Buffalo (5-3) @ NJ Jets (2-6)
— Bills lost two of last three games, after a 4-1 start.
— All five of their wins are by 15+ points.
— Buffalo has given up 11 TD’s on 81 drives.
— Bills are 6-5 ATS last ten games as road favorites.
— Last six games, Bills are +11 in turnovers.
— Buffalo outscored first seven foes 120-53 in first half.
— Last two weeks, Buffalo didn’t score first half TD.
— Over is 7-3-2 in Bills’ last 12 road games.
— Jets have used three QB’s last three games; who starts here?
— Jets gave up 54-31-45 points in last three games.
— Last two games, Jets scored eight TD’s on 21 drives.
— Jets have been outscored 51-14 in first quarter, 151-44 in first half.
— Last three years, Jets are 10-6 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last four years, Jets are 13-24 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last five Jet games went over the total.
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 13-25 ATS so far this season.
— Underdogs are 10-3 ATS last 14 series games (one pick ‘em).
— Buffalo won four of last five series games.
— Bills are 6-6 ATS in last dozen meetings played here.
New Orleans (5-3) @ Tennessee (7-2)
— Siemian was 25-41/249, two TD’s in his first start for Saints.
— Saints won three of last four games, scoring 26.8 ppg.
— New Orleans held seven of eight opponents under 100 yards rushing.
— Underdogs won six of their eight games SU (7-1 ATS).
— Saints are 5-3-1 ATS last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Last three years, Saints are 7-1-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— New Orleans has 19 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 37.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.
— Tennessee won/covered seven of last eight games, scoring 30.5 ppg.
— First six weeks, Titans ran for 165 yards/game; last three, 88.3 ypg.
— Titans have eight takeaways in last three games.
— Last six weeks, Titans are +7 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Tennessee is 8-7 ATS as home favorites.
— Titans are 9-5 ATS last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
— Tennessee has only four TD plays longer than 18 yards.
— Over is 4-2 in Tennessee’s last six games.
— Road team won last four series games.
— Saints won 38-28/22-17 in last two visits to Nashville.
Tampa Bay (6-2) @ Washington (2-6)
— Bucs won four of last five games, scoring 31.4 ppg.
— Buccaneers have 32 TD’s on 86 drives this season.
— Last seven games, Tampa Bay is +7 in turnovers.
— Last four games, Bucs scored 6.14 points/red zone drive.
— Last four games, opponents converted 14-51 on third down.
— Over is 5-2-1 in Tampa Bay games this season.
— Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in last six post-bye games.
— NFC South road favorites are 3-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Washington lost its last four games, scoring 11 ppg in last three.
— Washington has covered once in eight games this year.
— Last three games, Washington was outscored 38-10 in second half.
— Washington opponents converted 65-1115 on third down (56.5%).
— Washington is 0-4 ATS at home this season.
— Last 2+ years, Washington is 8-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last three Washington games stayed under the total.
— NFC East home teams are 5-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Washington is 2-9 ATS in last 11 post-bye games.
— Underdogs are 6-0-1 ATS in last seven meetings.
— Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in last five visits here.
— Under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games.
Detroit (0-8) @ Pittsburgh (5-3)
— Detroit is winless, has gone WLWLWLW vs spread.
— Last six games, Lions were outscored 81-22 in first half.
— Detroit has four TD’s on its last 40 drives.
— Lions have one takeaway in last three games (minus-3)
— Detroit gave up at least 7.1 yards/pass attempt in every game.
— Last three years, Detroit is 8-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Five of last six Detroit games stayed under the total.
— Lions lost twice on last-second FG’s, both 50+ yards.
— Steelers won last four games, giving up 19 ppg.
— Short week for Pittsburgh after their Monday night win.
— Pitt was outgained 414-280 Monday, gave up special teams TD
— Last seven games, Steelers were outscored 101-66 in second half.
— Underdogs are 5-0 ATS in Pittsburgh home games this year.
— Last five years, Steelers are 13-19 ATS as home favorites.
— Last seven years, Steelers are 16-11 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Five of eight Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Steelers won last five series games, four by 8+ points.
— Lions are 1-2 ATS in last three visits to Heinz Field.
— Four of last five series games went over.
Minnesota (3-5) @ LA Chargers (5-3)
— Seven of Vikings’ eight games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
— Vikings lost last two games, by total of seven points.
— Minnesota is +6 in turnovers last three games (even first 5 games)
— Last eight years, Vikings are 20-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Minnesota is 11-13 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Minnesota has been outscored 70-19 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Four of Vikings’ last six games stayed under the total.
— NFC North road underdogs are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Chargers lost two of last three games, after a 4-1 start.
— Six of their eight games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Last four games, Chargers allowed 183.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last four years, LA is 5-15-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Bolts are 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
— Chargers are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.
— Over is 3-1 in last four Charger games.
— AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 4-2 ATS.
— Minnesota won last two series games, 39-10/31-14.
— Vikings covered last four meetings.
— Home side won four of last five series games.
Carolina (4-5) @ Arizona (8-1)
— Carolina lost five of last six games after a 3-0 start.
— Carolina is 0-6 if it allows more than 14 points.
— Panthers scored one TD on their last 32 drives.
— Panthers are 8-2 ATS last ten games as road underdogs.
— Carolina outscored opponents 94-66 in first half.
— Last six games, Panthers were outscored 93-45 in second half.
— Under is 7-2 in Carolina games this season.
— NFC South road underdogs are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Arizona won eight of first nine games (7-2 ATS).
— Cardinals covered six of their last seven games.
— Backup QB McCoy played well LW; check Murray’s status.
— Last seven years, Arizona is 11-20 ATS as a home favorite.
— Cardinals have 33 TD’s on 90 drives this season.
— Arizona has 202 points on 35 drives to red zone (5.76)
— Arizona has 41 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 23.
— Under is 3-0 in last three Arizona home games.
— Carolina won nine of last 12 series games.
— Underdogs are 3-1-1 ATS last five series games.
— Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in last six trips to Arizona.
Seattle (3-5) @ Green Bay (7-1)
— Wilson (finger) returns here, for first time since Week 5.
— Wilson played his last year of college ball at Wisconsin.
— Seahawks lost five of their last seven games overall.
— Seattle is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 games as a dog, 3-1 TY.
— Seattle is 6-3 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
— Seattle has 37 plays of 20+ yards; they’ve given up 24.
— Last four games, opponents converted 16-65 on third down.
— Three of Seahawks’ last four games stayed under total.
— Rodgers’ (COVID) status for this game is still unclear.
— Green Bay won seven of last eight games (7-0-1 ATS)
— Packers lost 13-7 at Arrowhead LW, in Love’s first NFL start.
— Last three years, Green Bay is 13-6 ATS as a home favorite (3-0 HF).
— Green Bay averaged 6.5 or less yards/pass attempt 5 of last 6 games.
— Last three years, Pack is 7-0 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last six Packer games stayed under the total.
— NFC North home favorites are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Home side won last eight series games.
— Seahawks are 0-7-1 ATS last eight visits to Lambeau.
— Last time Seattle covered here was 2003.
Philadelphia (3-6) @ Denver (5-4)
— Eagles lost six of their last eight games.
— Philly is 3-1 if it allows 18 or less points, 0-5 if it allows more.
— Last four years, Eagles are 6-10 ATS as road underdogs.
— Eagles are 6-13 ATS last 19 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Philly had 236-176 YR last two games (98.6 ypg previous five games)
— Last eight weeks, Eagles were outscored 108-70 in first half.
— Last three weeks, Philly converted 19-35 on third down.
— Last three Eagle games went over the total.
— NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional home games.
— Denver won its last two games, giving up 10-16 points.
— Denver gave up 16 or less points in its wins, 25.3 ppg in losses.
— Last four years, Broncos are 4-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Denver has three takeaway in last five games (-5).
— Last two games, Denver converted 15-28 third down plays.
— Seven of nine Denver games stayed under the total.
— Broncos are 7-10-3 ATS last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 3-9 ATS.
— Home side won last four series games.
— Eagles lost 52-20/49-21 in last two visits to Denver.
— Last four series games went over (average total, 68.3).
Kansas City (5-4) @ Las Vegas (5-3)
— Chiefs scored only 12 ppg last three games.
— Kansas City averaged only 4.7/5.2/4.2 yards/pass in those games.
— Chiefs have only three TD’s on their last 28 drives.
— Chiefs turned ball over 19 times in last eight games (-11)
— Kansas City is 0-4 ATS at home this season.
— KC has 31 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 41.
— Chiefs’ last four games stayed under the total.
— Chiefs are 14-4 ATS last 18 AFC West road games.
— Raiders scored 14-9-16 points in losses, 26+ in wins.
— Last five years, Raiders are 10-8-1 ATS as home dogs.
— Raiders led last three games at halftime.
— Las Vegas has allowed 7+ yards pass attempt once, in Week 2.
— Raiders are 8-4 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Raiders converted 11 of last 32 third down plays.
— Las Vegas outgained Giants 403-245 LW, were awful in red zone.
— Raiders had ball in red zone six times, scored only 16 points.
— Kansas City won 13 of last 16 meetings in this rivalry.
— Chiefs are 1-3 ATS last four visits to Las Vegas/Oakland.
— Chiefs scored 30+ points in six of last seven meetings.
Monday’s game
LA Rams (7-1) @ San Francisco (3-5)
— Rams won four of their last five games.
— Rams are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 32.3 ppg.
— Last five games, LA converted only 21-60 on 3rd down
— Over is 6-3 in Rams’ games this season.
— Last three years, Rams are 9-5 ATS as road favorites.
— Under McVay, Rams are 8-4-1 ATS in NFC West road tilts.
— Last five games, LA is +5 in turnovers.
— NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 3-6 ATS.
— 49ers lost five of their last six games.
— 49ers are 0-4 SU at home, giving up 29.8 ppg.
— All three of their wins came on road (Lions/Eagles/Bears)
— Thru eight games, 49ers are minus-10 in turnovers.
— Last four years, 49ers are 4-3 ATS s home underdogs.
— Last four games, SF converted 14-56 third down plays.
— Last five years, 49ers are 4-9-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
— 49ers’ last three games went over the total.
— 49ers won last four meetings; they were underdog in last three.
— Under McVay, Rams are 2-2 ATS in Santa Clara.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
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Post by Gooba on Nov 12, 2021 20:24:23 GMT -5
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Post by Gooba on Nov 13, 2021 22:31:38 GMT -5
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Post by Gooba on Nov 14, 2021 8:21:22 GMT -5
Sportsbook Director at the South Point Chris Andrews
Sunday, Nov. 14
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-10.5, 47.5)
A “nobody knows they’re playing” game. At least there haven’t been too many of those of late. I’ve taken hardly any bets at all on the side and total, or with parlays and teasers. Sharps weren’t interested in the dog at + 10.5, but would probably come in at + 11 if the public does lay chalk before kickoff. Dog lovers may have to settle for + 10.5.
Cleveland at New England (-2.5, 45)
Everyone knows about this game. A lot of two-way action up and down the ladder. I opened Patriots -2.5. Sharps bet Cleveland + 2.5, + 2 and + 1.5, so I got as low as Patriots -1. Money drove the line the other way, laying -1, -1.5 and -2, so I’m back to my opening number of 2.5. I also took some respected moneyline bets on the Browns + 110 to win the game outright. And, there’s been decent six-point teaser play moving the Browns up past the 3 and the 7. You’d get + 8.5 now. Sharps look for value wherever they can find it. The public is now looking to bet on teams that are playing well. Both the Browns and Patriots covered by double digits last week. This should be a heavily bet game all the way to kickoff.
My opening total of 45 got bet up to 45.5 on mostly public action. I dropped back to 45 Friday morning to stay in line with the rest of the market.
Atlanta at Dallas (-9.5, 54.5)
I opened Atlanta + 10 and sharps took it. I had one bettor pay -120 to buy up to Atlanta + 10.5. I’ve since dropped to + 9.5 and am still taking Falcons bets so I might have to go to + 9. It looks like the public is afraid to bet the Cowboys after losing so much money on them near this price vs. Denver last week. They’re not even taking Dallas in moneyline parlays to win straight up. Not yet anyway.
A lot of action on the total. I took a strong bet on Over my opener of 53.5. Moved straight to 54.5. I’m getting a little play back on the Under. Not enough to adjust.
Buffalo (-12.5, 47.5) at the NY Jets
Sharps bet the Jets at my opener of + 13 and I dropped to + 12.5. Not much buyback yet on the Bills, even though something right below 13 should appeal to the public. They’re still in shock Buffalo lost to Jacksonville last week. Also, Mike White was announced as the starting QB for the Jets. He played well as a big dog vs. Cincinnati before getting hurt at Indianapolis. That makes it harder to auto-bet the Bills. I may have to go lower. I see as low as 11.5 elsewhere in the market.
Just a little bit of play on my opening total of 47.5. Not enough to move in either direction.
New Orleans at Tennessee (-2.5, 44)
Sharps really liked the Saints at + 3 or better. I opened Tennessee -3.5 and sharps hit that hard, then kept right on betting, so I dropped to + 2.5 Friday morning. I also had a lot of moneyline play on New Orleans + 140. I’m down to Tennessee -150/New Orleans + 130 right now. But, this isn’t a one-sided betting game. The public started showing interest in Tennessee at -3 and even more at -2.5. Some sharps even jumped on the Titans at -2.5. This could be a game that hops between 2.5 and 3 until kickoff. Interesting that sharps aren’t yet betting the Saints in six-point teasers (crossing the 3 and the 7). They do that on many short dogs, but not all of them. We might see that over the weekend because this is a relatively low-totaled game.
I opened 45. After a strong Under bet from a respected player, I went straight to 44. Tennessee’s offense didn’t play well vs. the Rams (remember, the Titans scored two very cheap TDs last Sunday night). New Orleans + 8.5 or + 9 in teasers will appeal to some statheads, even with Trevor Siemian at quarterback.
Tampa Bay (-9.5, 51.5) at Washington
I opened Tampa Bay -10 and sharps took Washington. My guy who likes to buy half points bought up again to WFT + 10.5. Interesting that sharps hit some of the big dogs so quickly this week. They must have figured the public would sour on betting big favorites after recent losses. I am getting some buyback on Tampa Bay -9.5. I’m also getting some 7-point teaser play on the Bucs, moving -9.5 down through the 7 and 3 to -2.5. I have a feeling I’ll be going back to TB -10 soon.
Limited interest so far at my opening total of 51.5.
Detroit at Pittsburgh (-8, 42.5)
Another dog that got bet right away. Story of the week. I opened Pittsburgh -9 and sharps took Detroit + 9 and + 8.5, so I’m down to + 8. No buyback yet on the Steelers. I’m not even seeing Pittsburgh in six-point teasers, which is a shock. Pittsburgh’s offense struggled to move the ball consistently vs. Chicago this past Monday night. The public doesn’t want to bet them, even if a win would put Pittsburgh in first place in the AFC North. My total opened 43. I took a sharp bet Under Friday morning, which dropped the line to 42.5. Good example here of a “value dog” that sharps will consider because points are at a premium with a low total.
Minnesota at the LA Chargers (-3, 53)
I opened Chargers -3. Sharps took the Vikings and I dropped to 2.5 for a while. Money came in on the Chargers, so I went back to three to stay in line with the rest of the market. Risky to be an outlier sportsbook near the most important number in football. I have to stay ahead of that risk. I’ve written pretty even business at the three. Interesting that sharps haven’t been re-investing in the Vikings since I returned to + 3. I have been getting a lot of teaser play with the Vikes, at + 8.5 and + 9. But, also a lot of moneyline play on the Chargers at -150 and -155. I’m currently LAC -170/Minnesota + 150. I think I’ll be writing a lot of tickets in this one all weekend.
I opened the total at 52. After taking a respected Over bet, I moved straight to 53. Very limited action since the move.
Carolina at Arizona (-10, 44)
Sharps bet the dog at my opener of Arizona -10.5, so I dropped to -10. I am getting a lot of public play on the Cardinals at -10, but not enough yet to move the line. If and when Kyler Murray is confirmed as the starting QB, I expect the line to go up. P.J. Walker will start for Carolina (Sam Darnold is hurt, Cam Newton isn’t ready to play yet). Walker’s passing line against the New York Giants was a measly 3 of 14 for 33 yards. The public is likely to bet Arizona hard Sunday if the “pitching matchup” is Murray vs. Walker.
Not much play yet on my opening total of 44.
Seattle at Green Bay (-3, 49.5)
I opened Green Bay -3.5 and sharps took the points. I’m currently at Green Bay -3. That’s getting bet back the other way. I’ll have to decide how I want to be positioned with these quarterbacks. Russell Wilson could be rusty after a long injury layoff. Aaron Rodgers may take a while to recover from covid even if he’s ready to start. Other sportsbooks can vary their vigorish in the 3 to 3.5 range. At the South Point, all football bets are 11/10. People will either be betting Green Bay -3 or Seattle + 3.5 with us. Which side do I want to root for?
Split play so far at my opening total of 49.5.
Philadelphia at Denver (-2.5, 45)
Interesting game. I opened Denver -3 and the wiseguys took Philadelphia pretty strong, so I’m down to Denver -2.5. But, I’ve noticed that the sharps aren’t yet betting the Eagles in six-point teasers, nor have they been taking Philly on the moneyline to win straight up. I’m getting some play back from the public on Denver -2.5, but not enough yet to move the line back to three. I’ll be watching the indicators on this one very closely at my shop and across the market.
My opening total of 44.5 got bet up to 45. I’m still writing Over tickets, but not enough to move any higher. The market is projecting a tight 24-21 type game with these lines. I’m more hesitant to move off the 45 in that context.
Kansas City (-2.5, 52) at Las Vegas
I’m really surprised about this one. I opened Kansas City -2.5 and I’ve only taken Chiefs bets against the spread so far. Even though Kansas City’s been playing poorly of late (three straight losses ATS, 2-7 for the season), and even though I’m in the hometown of the Raiders! I am getting some teaser play on the Raiders. Some sharps like playing short divisional dogs when they can cross the 3 and the 7 with six-point moves. Wiseguys also like teasing the Sunday night game because of the investment flexibility it provides. If other teaser legs have come home already, sharps can choose to “buy off” the remaining exposure with a bet on the Chiefs that creates a big virtually risk-free middle opportunity.
My opening total of 51.5 got bet up to 52.
Monday, Nov. 15
LA Rams (-4, 49.5) at San Francisco
This is already a heavily bet game. It’s too early to know how it will stack up historically. But, a high handle is a lock. I opened Rams -4 and have gotten a lot of action both ways. Both teams have strong local betting constituencies in this great rivalry. Sharps are shaded toward the underdog and I see the line dropping elsewhere. I’ll let money force that move for me here at the South Point.
I’m also getting good two-way play on my opening total of 49.5. Great to see after there was relatively little interest in Bears/Steelers last week for a Monday nighter.
I should also mention that we took a lot of bets on the Rams to win the Super Bowl this week after they signed Odell Beckham Jr. Fans believe the franchise is all-in for this season. I’ve told you often that Las Vegas might as well be a suburb of Los Angeles whenever that city has a championship contender. We had the Rams at 7/1 before the signing. They’re down to 5/1.
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