Post by Makers on May 5, 2022 4:57:00 GMT -5
Between 2014 and 2021, all eight horses who crossed the wire first in the Derby prevailed by setting or tracking the pace from no farther back than third place18 of the last 24 Kentucky Derby winners successfully shaded the :38 mark in their final prep race
***White Abarrio needed :39.66 seconds to complete the final three furlongs of the Florida Derby
***Cyberknife needed :39.18 seconds to complete the final three furlongs of the Wood Memorial
Early Voting ran the final three furlongs of the Wood Memorial in a rapid :36.42
Messier. The son of Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker has tactical speed, ran the final three furlongs of the Santa Anita Derby in less than :38 seconds
Horses based in California have outperformed all others in recent renewals of the Kentucky Derby. Seven of the last 11 horses who crossed the wire first in the Derby (Medina Spirit, Authentic, Justify, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome, and I’ll Have Another) spent the winter in California and completed the majority of their training at Santa Anita Park, though Authentic, Nyquist and American Pharoah did race outside of California prior to the Derby.
Over the last decade, California has also produced Kentucky Derby runners-up Exaggerator (2016), Firing Line (2015), and Bodemeister (2012), plus third-place finishers Battle of Midway (2017) and Dortmund (2015). It’s safe to say 3-year-olds based in the Golden State warrant extra respect in the Run for the Roses.
However, the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park has also been highly productive. Over the last 15 years, Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017) all managed to complete the Florida
No horse has used the Blue Grass as a springboard to success in the Run for the Roses since Street Sense in 2007, and the last horse to win both races was Strike the Gold in 1991.
The statistics for the Wood Memorial paint a similar picture. The last horse to exit the Wood Memorial and win the Kentucky Derby was Funny Cide in 2003, and the only horse in the past 40 years to win both races was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.
The rail post is a famously tricky spot and hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986. But post 2 hasn’t seen a winner since Triple Crown champion Affirmed in 1978, suggesting both slots can be bad news. Outside posts are generally preferable, with seven of the last 11 Derby winners starting from post 13 or wider.
Horses who prevailed in their final prep race have dominated recent editions of the Kentucky Derby. No fewer than nine of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners entered off a victory. Furthermore, eight of those 11 entered the Kentucky Derby undefeated for the season, so it pays to arrive at Churchill Downs in winning form.
Stallions who displayed the ability to win a Grade 1 race running one mile or farther have enjoyed the strongest success siring Kentucky Derby winners. Case in point? No fewer than 10 of the last 13 Derby champions were sired by a Grade 1-winning route runner, with Orb, California Chrome, and Medina Spirit the lone exceptions. If a stallion was an elite-level racehorse running long, there’s a good chance he’ll pass that ability on to his progeny.
Derby contenders not sired by Grade 1-winning route runners: Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Cyberknife, Taiba, Tawny Port, Early Voting, Morello, Messier, Charge It, Happy Jack, Pioneer of Medina, Ethereal Road, Rich Strike, Rattle N Roll, Skippylongstocking, Major General, and Golden Glider.