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Post by Gooba on Feb 23, 2023 9:25:28 GMT -5
MLB 2023 AMERICAN LEAGUE WIN TOTAL ODDS
Teams Listed in order of Projected Wins per Division
AL EAST OVER/UNDER WINS
N.Y. Yankees 94.5
Toronto 90.5
Tampa Bay 89.5
Boston 78.5
Baltimore 76.5
AL CENTRAL OVER/UNDER WINS
Cleveland 86.5
Minnesota 84.5
Chicago White Sox 83.5
Detroit 68.5
Kansas City 68.5
AL WEST OVER/UNDER WINS
Houston 97.5
Seattle 86.5
Texas 81.5
L.A. Angels 81.5
Oakland 59.5
MLB 2023 NATIONAL LEAGUE WIN TOTAL ODDS
Teams Listed in order of Projected Wins per Division
NL EAST OVER/UNDER WINS
Atlanta 96.5
N.Y. Mets 94.5
Philadelphia 89.5
Miami 75.5
Washington 59.5
NL CENTRAL OVER/UNDER WINS
St. Louis 88.5
Milwaukee 86.5
Chicago Cubs 76.5
Pittsburgh 67.5
Cincinnati 65.5
NL WEST OVER/UNDER WINS
L.A. Dodgers 96.5
San Diego 93.5
San Francisco 81.5
Arizona 74.5
Colorado 65.5
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Post by bobbycap on Feb 23, 2023 14:33:48 GMT -5
So for what it's worth.............
For many years I've been a subscriber to Baseball Prospectus. They have been uncanny in their totals projections year after year. They change their projections almost daily based on news of injuries or player movement-----but the final projection a day or so before Opening Day is remarkably accurate.
For six or seven years I've been playing the two Over/Unders where the BP projections vary from the stated line.
Last season, for example, the biggest variance called for wagers on the Yankees Over------and the SF Giants Under. Both bets cashed with ease.
I don't believe I've lost an Over/Under wager in all the time I've been doing this.
As of right now---------the two biggest differences call for wagers on both Kansas City Under-------and Atlanta Under. However-----I won't make the plays until day before the openers.
I'll update at that time with the final plays that I make but those two are likely to be in consideration barring major news.
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Post by Gooba on Feb 24, 2023 7:51:56 GMT -5
Nice. Keep us updated. I started that Prospectus email subscription about 2 years ago.
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Post by Gooba on Feb 24, 2023 7:55:12 GMT -5
Los Angeles Dodgers’ over/under win totals the last few years:
2019— 92.5— over by 13.5 games
2020— 37.5— over by 5.5 games
2021— 102.5— over by 3.5 games
2022— 97.5— over by 13.5 games
Los Angeles Angels’ over/under win totals the last few years:
2018– 84.5— under by 4.5 games
2019— 82— under by 10 games
2020— 31.5— under by 5.5 games
2021— 83.5— under by 6.5 games
2022— 84.5— under by 11.5 games
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Post by Makers on Feb 27, 2023 7:41:09 GMT -5
So for what it's worth.............
For many years I've been a subscriber to Baseball Prospectus. They have been uncanny in their totals projections year after year. They change their projections almost daily based on news of injuries or player movement-----but the final projection a day or so before Opening Day is remarkably accurate.
For six or seven years I've been playing the two Over/Unders where the BP projections vary from the stated line.
Last season, for example, the biggest variance called for wagers on the Yankees Over------and the SF Giants Under. Both bets cashed with ease.
I don't believe I've lost an Over/Under wager in all the time I've been doing this.
As of right now---------the two biggest differences call for wagers on both Kansas City Under-------and Atlanta Under. However-----I won't make the plays until day before the openers.
I'll update at that time with the final plays that I make but those two are likely to be in consideration barring major news. Thanks!!!! |
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Post by bobbycap on Mar 28, 2023 13:33:41 GMT -5
So------as promised------here are my two Over/Under plays for this season.
The largest spread between Baseball Prospectus projected win totals and the Draft Kings Over/Under lines give us these plays.
Kansas City Under (Draft Kings 69.5--------BP projected total 63.6-----for a difference of -5.9)
and
Seattle Under (Draft Kings 87.5------BP projected total 82.9-----for a difference of 4.6)
Those are the two I'll play. For those looking for one play only------the KC under is head and shoulders the top choice.
For those who are looking for more action------(I don't play these extras----I hate having my money tied up for that long, honestly)----these plays were close to consideration.
Oakland Over 60.5------(the variance was +4.5----very close to second best)
Detroit Under 69.5----(the variance was -4.5-----also very close to second best)
Cincinnati Over 65.5-----(the variance was +4.2)
Minnesota Over 83.5----(the variance was +4.1)
That's it for this season. Your choice as to what you'll do with this. One note: BP feels that the NL West lines are almost perfectly set this year------so proceed there with caution.
Good Luck, All!
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Post by Gooba on Mar 28, 2023 20:49:13 GMT -5
Thanks B. Played it with you although I have 68.5 and 86.5. Hope that 1 game doesn’t come bite me
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Post by bobbycap on Mar 29, 2023 13:26:22 GMT -5
Just FYI------Draft Kings still has my numbers-----if you can buy out and buy in.
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brymel2
Premium Member
Posts: 2,527 
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Post by brymel2 on Mar 30, 2023 7:49:46 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing bc. Good read and will be fun to follow.
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Post by cremesaver on Apr 1, 2023 20:13:20 GMT -5
I followed some also tyvm
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Post by Gooba on Oct 1, 2023 20:37:33 GMT -5
Thanks for the plays B. Seattle was a nailbiter
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Post by bobbycap on Oct 2, 2023 0:52:58 GMT -5
So after this year's split-----this little system is now 15-1 over the last 8 years. And---the loss was by a hook, by one run, and on the last day of the season. Usually----the outcomes are far more decisive-----along the lines of the Royals this year.
Sorry for the split------but I'll be back with this next year.
By the way. BP's projected totals were perfect or within one win for four teams this year. That's an amazing feat.
Thanks, gang.
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Post by cremesaver on Oct 2, 2023 10:13:38 GMT -5
Tyvm for this I hedged mine a bit yday so still plus money with ov win looking forward again to next yr !
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Post by Gooba on Oct 2, 2023 10:17:56 GMT -5
Tyvm for this I hedged mine a bit yday so still plus money with ov win looking forward again to next yr ! Good thinking |
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Post by Gooba on Oct 2, 2023 10:20:13 GMT -5
So after this year's split-----this little system is now 15-1 over the last 8 years. And---the loss was by a hook, by one run, and on the last day of the season. Usually----the outcomes are far more decisive-----along the lines of the Royals this year.
Sorry for the split------but I'll be back with this next year.
By the way. BP's projected totals were perfect or within one win for four teams this year. That's an amazing feat.
Thanks, gang. Couldn’t believe it either. The last game of the year by 1 run and by a hook. Great record btw, can’t wait for next years plays! |
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