Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors

Game 6 - Cavaliers at Raptors
By Kevin Rogers

The home team has won each of the first five games of the Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Toronto. The Cavaliers look to break that trend with a victory on Friday night in Game 6 at the Air Canada Center where they have lost twice already in this series. However, Toronto is seeking to reach a decisive seventh game for the third consecutive round in the playoffs after suffering a humiliating loss in Game 5.

Cleveland dominated Toronto at Quicken Loans Arena for the third time in this series as the Cavaliers jumped out to an 18-point lead after the first quarter and never looked back. The Cavs crushed the Raptors, 116-78 to easily cash as 11-point favorites, while grabbing a 31-point halftime advantage, the largest ever in conference finals history. Kevin Love bounced back from a subpar effort in Game 4 in which he sat out the fourth quarter as he poured in a game-high 25 points in Game 5. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving each scored 23 points, as the Cavaliers shot a scorching 57% from the floor.

It was a game to forget for the Raptors, who came off a pair of impressive home underdog victories in Games 3 and 4 to even the series. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were the only two Toronto players to register double-figures in Game 5, combining for 27 points on 7-of-20 shooting from the floor. The Raptors shot 39% from the floor, while misfiring on 14-of-17 three-point attempts and missing 14 free throws. The only positive to come out of the Game 5 disaster was the return of center Jonas Valenciunas, who came off the bench following an eight-game absence to score nine points on 4-of-4 shooting from the field.

The Cavaliers have yet to win north of the border this season, losing in all four tries, including twice in the regular season. In all four defeats, Cleveland has scored less than 100 points, although in two of the losses finished with 99 points. In the 105-99 setback in Game 4, the Cavaliers attempted 41 shots from three-point range (making 13), while going to the line only nine times. Lowry and DeRozan carried the Raptors in Game 4, combining for 67 points, as Lowry knocked down four treys in each of the two home victories.

Cleveland owns a perfect 5-0 record the last two postseasons when trying to close out a series, but Tyronn Lue’s club failed to cover in series-clinching victories over Detroit and Atlanta in the first two rounds. The Cavs won those two games by a combined three points, but have closed out four of their last five playoff series with road victories since 2015. Toronto has won in both of its tries in elimination games in this postseason, although each time came with both squads trying not to get knocked out in seventh game wins over Indiana and Miami.

It’s hard to ignore Toronto’s perfect 7-0 record at home in the playoffs coming off a loss, while Dwane Casey’s squad has covered four straight games at the Air Canada Center. Since allowing 100 points in the playoff opener to Indiana, the Raptors have yielded less than 100 points in regulation in nine straight home contests, resulting in a 5-4 mark to the 'over.’

NBA expert Chris David weighs the options on betting these squads, “You can handicap Game 6 a couple different ways and you could be very hesitant to do so. Based on the eyeball test from Game 5, you’re leaning to the Cavaliers on Friday but will they lay an egg like they did in Game 3 at Toronto? Or will Cleveland finally show up for a full 48 minutes at the Air Canada Centre and advance to the finals? The answers to those questions are arguable and that’s where you could be decisive.”

David believes that the Raptors are the look as long as you stick to the numbers, “If you’re handicapping the game on angles and trends, then you’re all-in on Toronto. The home team has won and covered the first five games in this series and the Raptors play much better in Canada. They’ve gone 8-2 in the playoffs at home in the playoff losses came by 10 and six points, compared to dropping six of their seven road playoff games by double digits. Cleveland has gone 4-2 on the road in the playoffs but it’s just 2-4 versus the number in those games and only two wins came by double digits.”

When the Raptors lose, they get blown out. So is it worth taking the points on Friday? “Since the point-spread hasn’t mattered in any of Toronto’s games as an underdog in the playoffs, I wouldn’t recommend taking the points. Instead, I would grab the 15/1 odds on the adjusted series price and hope they force a Game 7 on Sunday. If that happens, you can buy back Cleveland in the decisive matchup or let it ride and hedge out with possible Live Betting or halftime wagers. Either way, the series price offers more value to me than the money-line in Game 6, which is plus-230 at most betting shops,” David says.

This postseason has seen its share of blowouts, as clubs coming off a loss of 20 points or more own a 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS record. However, home underdog have gone 3-2 SU/ATS, including Oklahoma City’s Game 3 victory over Golden State in the Western Conference Finals in this situation. Last postseason, road teams leading a series 3-2 posted a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS record in Game 6, while that scenario has come up only once in the 2016 playoffs as the Raptors lost at Indiana in Game 6 of the first round trying to advance.

David provides his view on the total, which has dropped to 196. “Depending when and where you’ve played totals in this series, your bankroll could have differing results. Per our closing numbers, the ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2-1 in the first five games and the ‘under’ tickets were definitely helped with some poor offensive production in the final quarters.”

“The total for Game 5 opened at 197 and you can certainly make a sound case for either wager. However, the last two postseasons that the Raptors were sent packing, they gave up 125 and 104 points. Toronto’s offense should be better at home but if you believe Cleveland will advance on Friday, then I believe you’ll see some points. My lean is to the Cavs team total over (101 ½) and the high side in the game too.”

The Cavaliers opened as 6 ½-point favorites for Game 6 and that number has held steady. The game tips off at 8:35 PM EST from Toronto and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

NBA

Toronto-Cleveland (C 3-2)
Home team has dominated series, winning all five games by 21.8 point average; over is 6-4-1 in last 11 series games, with home team 8-0 in last eight. Cavaliers lost last four games in Canada (0-4 vs spread). Cavs are 4-2 on road in playoffs. Lowry/DeRozan went a combined 28-43 in Game 4, scoring 67 points; but went 7-20 in Game 5. Raptors are 8-2 at home in playoffs. Home sides are 9-1 vs spread in conference finals.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 5-5, over: 4-5-1