Post by Makers on May 30, 2016 5:46:17 GMT -5
The NBA was granted one of its wishes with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers making the Finals for a second straight season. The second wish came true when the Warriors extended the Western Conference Finals to a pivotal Game 7 against the Thunder, setting up for an epic finale of this series at Oracle Arena.
Oklahoma City seemed in control of the conference finals less than a week ago when Billy Donovan’s squad held a 3-1 advantage over the defending champions. The Warriors pulled away from the Thunder in Game 5 at Oracle Arena, 120-111 to cash as seven-point favorites and improve to 13-1 off a loss this season. Golden State rallied past Oklahoma City in Game 6 at Chesapeake Energy Arena to even up the Western Conference Finals at 3-3 as the Warriors turned to the “Splash Brothers” to save their season.
The Warriors erased a 13-point deficit in Saturday’s 108-101 triumph as three-point road underdogs thanks to outscoring the Thunder, 33-18 in the fourth quarter. Klay Thompson drilled a playoff-record 11 treys and scored 41 points as Golden State extended its streak to 10 consecutive postseason series with at least one road victory. Stephen Curry heated up in the second half to contribute 31 points as the Warriors’ dynamic duo combined to hit 17-of-32 shots from downtown. Golden State connected on 21-of-45 attempts from three-point range, even though only three Warriors scored in double-figures (Draymond Green scored 12 points).
Obviously Oklahoma City has to feel like this series has slipped through its fingers following the Game 6 meltdown, as the Thunder managed to hit on only 3-of-23 shots from long distance. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to go 1-of-13 from three-point range, but the two Thunder stars put up 57 of Oklahoma City’s 101 points. Durant missed 21 shots from the floor following his 40-point effort in Game 5, while attempting 31 shots in each of the last two games (22-of-62). The Thunder didn’t get much help from its bench in Game 6, receiving 11 points as the only player to log more than 10 minutes was Dion Waiters, who scored just three points in 36 minutes.
Nine teams in NBA postseason history have erased a 3-1 series deficit to capture a series victory with the Rockets being the last to do so in the 2015 conference semifinals against the Clippers. The last time a team squandered a 3-1 series advantage but ended up winning Game 7 was the Bulls over the Nets in the 2013 opening round, as Chicago won outright as 7 ½-point road underdogs, 99-93.
Home clubs have fared well in the history of Game 7, owning a 100-24 record (80%) since 1948. In the past four postseasons, home teams have compiled an 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS mark in Game 7’s, including a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark in the 2016 playoffs. Steve Kerr hasn’t coached in a Game 7 of the playoffs in his short career as head coach of the Warriors, as the last Game 7 that Golden State played in came in the 2014 opening round. The Warriors fell to the Clippers, 126-121, but covered as seven-point underdogs.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David provides his thoughts for Monday’s decisive contest, “If you’re handicapping this matchup based on Game 7 history and seasonal trends, it’s hard to go against Golden State. Including the playoffs, Oklahoma City has been a road underdog 16 times this season and it’s gone 4-12 in those games. They did manage to play competitive in three of the losses, which helped them go 7-9 against the spread. Golden State rarely lays less than a touchdown (-7) at home and when it does, it wins. The Warriors have gone 8-1 (89%) in these spots with the lone loss coming to the Thunder in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has covered five of those victories, three coming by double digits.”
Will the public jump off the OKC bandwagon following Saturday’s meltdown? “Those angles could easily have you leaning to the Warriors but if you bet on a regular basis, it’s never that easy and we saw what happened on Saturday with many so-called pundits penciling the Thunder into the NBA Finals already. While I don’t like to back teams off bad losses and it was ugly, I believe the value is with Oklahoma City in this spot and the line is inflated by a couple points. The Thunder have gone 5-3 on the road in the playoffs and Billy Donovan’s team has played well when facing adversity. During the regular season, the team went 7-1 off back-to-back losses and the lone three-game losing streak occurred back in early November,” David says.
After seeing totals range between 219 ½ and 225 in the first six games of this series, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 219 for Game 7 and some savvy bettors knocked it down to 218. “I agree with the early move and history tells us that it’s rare to see both teams eclipse 100-plus points in decisive matchups. While both clubs certainly have the ability to light up the scoreboard, I don’t see the pace being fast and expect possessions to be played at a premium. In Oklahoma City’s four wins as road underdogs this season, it allowed 102, 91, 97 and 89 points. The ‘under’ cashed easily in all four of those wins and went 11-5 overall when the Thunder were catching points on the road. Since I’m buying Oklahoma City with the points, I’ll also lean to the team total ‘under’ for Golden State (112 ½) and buy the game ‘under’ (218) as well,” David notes.
For the first time in the conference finals, we’ve seen home teams lose consecutive games following a 9-1 start by the four squads that played in this round. Cleveland knocked out Toronto in Game 6 on Friday night at Air Canada Center, followed by Golden State’s comeback victory over Oklahoma City on Saturday. Five of the last six close-out wins for the Warriors in the playoffs have come by nine points or more with the lowest margin of victory being four points in the second round against Portland.
In Saturday’s Game 6 preview written by David, he noted how impressive the home team has been in this series in the first quarter and first half. Those angles continued on Saturday as Oklahoma City led after the first 12 and 24 minutes.
Game 1 - 58-50 (27-21)
Game 2 - 72-53 (27-20)
Game 3 - 72-47 (34-28)
Game 4 - 57-49 (30-26)
Game 5 - 60-47 (25-21)
Game 6 – 53-48 (23-20)
Golden State is favored by 2 ½ points in the first quarter at Sportsbook.ag, while the Warriors are laying 4 ½ points in the first half. For the game, the Warriors are seven-point ‘chalk,’ as the total is sitting at 218. The contest tips off at 9:00 p.m. EST from Oracle Arena and can be seen on TNT.
Oklahoma City seemed in control of the conference finals less than a week ago when Billy Donovan’s squad held a 3-1 advantage over the defending champions. The Warriors pulled away from the Thunder in Game 5 at Oracle Arena, 120-111 to cash as seven-point favorites and improve to 13-1 off a loss this season. Golden State rallied past Oklahoma City in Game 6 at Chesapeake Energy Arena to even up the Western Conference Finals at 3-3 as the Warriors turned to the “Splash Brothers” to save their season.
The Warriors erased a 13-point deficit in Saturday’s 108-101 triumph as three-point road underdogs thanks to outscoring the Thunder, 33-18 in the fourth quarter. Klay Thompson drilled a playoff-record 11 treys and scored 41 points as Golden State extended its streak to 10 consecutive postseason series with at least one road victory. Stephen Curry heated up in the second half to contribute 31 points as the Warriors’ dynamic duo combined to hit 17-of-32 shots from downtown. Golden State connected on 21-of-45 attempts from three-point range, even though only three Warriors scored in double-figures (Draymond Green scored 12 points).
Obviously Oklahoma City has to feel like this series has slipped through its fingers following the Game 6 meltdown, as the Thunder managed to hit on only 3-of-23 shots from long distance. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to go 1-of-13 from three-point range, but the two Thunder stars put up 57 of Oklahoma City’s 101 points. Durant missed 21 shots from the floor following his 40-point effort in Game 5, while attempting 31 shots in each of the last two games (22-of-62). The Thunder didn’t get much help from its bench in Game 6, receiving 11 points as the only player to log more than 10 minutes was Dion Waiters, who scored just three points in 36 minutes.
Nine teams in NBA postseason history have erased a 3-1 series deficit to capture a series victory with the Rockets being the last to do so in the 2015 conference semifinals against the Clippers. The last time a team squandered a 3-1 series advantage but ended up winning Game 7 was the Bulls over the Nets in the 2013 opening round, as Chicago won outright as 7 ½-point road underdogs, 99-93.
Home clubs have fared well in the history of Game 7, owning a 100-24 record (80%) since 1948. In the past four postseasons, home teams have compiled an 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS mark in Game 7’s, including a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark in the 2016 playoffs. Steve Kerr hasn’t coached in a Game 7 of the playoffs in his short career as head coach of the Warriors, as the last Game 7 that Golden State played in came in the 2014 opening round. The Warriors fell to the Clippers, 126-121, but covered as seven-point underdogs.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David provides his thoughts for Monday’s decisive contest, “If you’re handicapping this matchup based on Game 7 history and seasonal trends, it’s hard to go against Golden State. Including the playoffs, Oklahoma City has been a road underdog 16 times this season and it’s gone 4-12 in those games. They did manage to play competitive in three of the losses, which helped them go 7-9 against the spread. Golden State rarely lays less than a touchdown (-7) at home and when it does, it wins. The Warriors have gone 8-1 (89%) in these spots with the lone loss coming to the Thunder in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has covered five of those victories, three coming by double digits.”
Will the public jump off the OKC bandwagon following Saturday’s meltdown? “Those angles could easily have you leaning to the Warriors but if you bet on a regular basis, it’s never that easy and we saw what happened on Saturday with many so-called pundits penciling the Thunder into the NBA Finals already. While I don’t like to back teams off bad losses and it was ugly, I believe the value is with Oklahoma City in this spot and the line is inflated by a couple points. The Thunder have gone 5-3 on the road in the playoffs and Billy Donovan’s team has played well when facing adversity. During the regular season, the team went 7-1 off back-to-back losses and the lone three-game losing streak occurred back in early November,” David says.
After seeing totals range between 219 ½ and 225 in the first six games of this series, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 219 for Game 7 and some savvy bettors knocked it down to 218. “I agree with the early move and history tells us that it’s rare to see both teams eclipse 100-plus points in decisive matchups. While both clubs certainly have the ability to light up the scoreboard, I don’t see the pace being fast and expect possessions to be played at a premium. In Oklahoma City’s four wins as road underdogs this season, it allowed 102, 91, 97 and 89 points. The ‘under’ cashed easily in all four of those wins and went 11-5 overall when the Thunder were catching points on the road. Since I’m buying Oklahoma City with the points, I’ll also lean to the team total ‘under’ for Golden State (112 ½) and buy the game ‘under’ (218) as well,” David notes.
For the first time in the conference finals, we’ve seen home teams lose consecutive games following a 9-1 start by the four squads that played in this round. Cleveland knocked out Toronto in Game 6 on Friday night at Air Canada Center, followed by Golden State’s comeback victory over Oklahoma City on Saturday. Five of the last six close-out wins for the Warriors in the playoffs have come by nine points or more with the lowest margin of victory being four points in the second round against Portland.
In Saturday’s Game 6 preview written by David, he noted how impressive the home team has been in this series in the first quarter and first half. Those angles continued on Saturday as Oklahoma City led after the first 12 and 24 minutes.
Game 1 - 58-50 (27-21)
Game 2 - 72-53 (27-20)
Game 3 - 72-47 (34-28)
Game 4 - 57-49 (30-26)
Game 5 - 60-47 (25-21)
Game 6 – 53-48 (23-20)
Golden State is favored by 2 ½ points in the first quarter at Sportsbook.ag, while the Warriors are laying 4 ½ points in the first half. For the game, the Warriors are seven-point ‘chalk,’ as the total is sitting at 218. The contest tips off at 9:00 p.m. EST from Oracle Arena and can be seen on TNT.
