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Post by Makers on Jan 3, 2016 6:30:28 GMT -5
Does the playoff push equal NFL betting profits in Week 17?
Week 17 of the NFL season provides many interesting scenarios for bettors. For many teams, the season basically over. While for the lucky few the real fun is just beginning.
The teams in Week 17 can be broken down into two categories: teams with something left to play for and those with nothing left (either because they are already eliminated from the playoffs or because they have clinched a seed).
This year, in the NFC the Seahawks, Cardinals, Vikings, Packers and Panthers have something left to play for, while in the AFC the Patriots, Broncos, Bengals, Chiefs, Jets, Steelers, Texans, and Colts are assured of anything.
This means that quite a number of games this weekend will feature at least one team that’s still fighting for something, and a few will feature two teams that are still in the hunt. Therefor, for this week, we will take a look at how games that feature either or two teams with something to fight for turn out.
To do this, we gathered data for the past five years on which teams were still playing for something in Week 17. We relied upon NFL.com posts to identify these teams, and then Covers’ database to check how these games turned out both against the spread and Over/Under. We would have gone back further but because we were identifying these teams by hand it took a while, and we figured five years should be enough to give us some insight.
As mentioned before, there are really two types of games: games in which only one team has something to fight for and games in which both teams do. Therefore, when doing the analysis we will look at both categories. Since not all games are played at the same time, it is possible that the playoff hopes of each may have changed due to earlier games, but we won’t try to worry about that here - just keep it in mind.
There were 32 games in the past five years that featured only one team with something to play for. In those games, the playoff-hopeful team was 13-18 (41.9 percent) against the spread (with one push). Those games also went Under 16 times and Over 14 - or 53.3 percent of the time, with two pushes.
In the past five years, teams with something left to fight for have actually underperformed expectations when playing a team that has nothing left to play for in Week 17.
This could be due to several reasons. Perhaps the lines assign a little bump to the playoff-hopeful teams as they expect them to be more motivated and play harder, when in reality they aren’t especially more motived. Or maybe they are more motivated, but their opponents, who in Week 17 are division rivals, are also motivated to keep them out of the playoffs. Or perhaps this is just random noise – it is no where close to being statistically significant, and there is no guarantee that this trend will continue in the future.
Moving onto the next category: games in which both teams have something to play for. These games are much rarer. In the past five years, there have been 13 such games, and true to form there are two this year: Minnesota at Green Bay and Seattle at Arizona.
In these games, the home team is 8-5 (61 percent) ATS, and nine of the 13 games (69 percent) have gone Under the total.
Because we have such a small sample size, these results are nowhere close to statistically significant. Still, it appears that in the case where two teams both have something to play for in Week 17, the home team has the advantage and the Under is the smart bet.
Intuitively this does make sense. Home crowds might give the home team a larger than usual home-field advantage. And although the Under may be a bit tougher to explain, I could see it being the case that coaches may play more cautiously at first, as they have proven to be very risk adverse (not going for it on fourth down when they should, stuff like that).
A final interesting tidbit: Seattle and Green Bay have each been involved in the hunt four out of the past five years. In their four attempts, Seattle is 3-1 ATS and has gone Under the total all four times, while Green Bay is 2-2 ATS and has gone Over three out of the four times. Something to think about this Sunday.
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Post by Makers on Jan 3, 2016 6:31:52 GMT -5
The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 record last weekend and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for some meaningless scores. For those who had the ‘over’ in the Chicago-Tampa Bay and Houston-Tennessee games, we’re glad to see you received some belated holiday gifts this past Sunday. And for those on the other side of those results, we apologize and hope you keep grinding. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 119-117-4.
Week 17 Approach
Handicapping the final week of the regular season is often a toss-up for both sides and totals.
Week 17 Total Results (2010-2014)
Year Over/Under
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7
2010 7-9
Based on the above, you can see that the ‘under’ has gone 44-36 (55%) that past five seasons and that includes a 20-12 (63%) mark the last two years. Based on playoff implications, you have five meaningless matchups on tap for Week 17 and it’s fair to say it’s six.
New Orleans at Atlanta
Washington at Dallas
Detroit at Chicago
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
St. Louis at San Francisco
Tennessee at Indianapolis (Colts have an outside shot to make the playoffs)
My thinking with these games is that most coaches will just roll the ball out and let the teams go after it offensively.
Last Sunday, we had three meaningless games and the ‘over’ went 3-0 albeit the Bears-Bucs winner was fortunate:
Detroit 32 San Francisco 17 (Over 49)
New Orleans 38 Jacksonville 27 (Over 53)
Chicago 25 Tampa Bay 21 (Over 44)
Based on the numbers for Week 17, I’d probably toss out any leans on the Redskins-Cowboys and Rams-49ers, but the three other games all have two things in common. They have capable quarterbacks and defensive units that are suspect, which is why two of the totals are listed in the fifties.
Divisional Angles
Here is my quick handicap on nine of the 10 other meaningful matchups for Week 17.
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Bills dropped the Jets 22-17 in the first meeting and the ‘under’ (41 ½) connected due to miscues by the New York offense. This total opened 44 and has dropped to 41. The Jets defense has played better and faces a short-handed attack for the Bills.
New England at Miami: The ‘under’ is 5-2 the last seven in this series and both clubs enter this game banged up. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last five but Miami (19.3 PPG) can’t score lately and I don’t expect that to change Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers blasted the Buccaneers 37-23 in Week 4 and the ‘over’ (40 ½) hit easily. This week’s total (47) seems inflated and hard to imagine Carolina pressing the issue once they get the lead against an inconsistent Tampa Bay offense (22.1 PPG).
Baltimore at Cincinnati: The ‘over’ is 3-1 the last four in this series but those results should be overlooked with backup quarterbacks on display this week. Bengals are 2-0 to the ‘under’ with A.J. McCarron under center while the Ravens haven’t are averaging 13.3 PPG their last four.
Jacksonville at Houston: Possible shootout here based on the defensive numbers for the Jaguars (27.9 PPG) and Houston does get Brian Hoyer back at QB. These teams haven’t seen a total this high since 2011 and that also tells me to lean to the high side.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Prior to last week’s lackluster effort and Baltimore, the Steelers offense was rolling. They should get back on track this weekend versus the Cleveland secondary but can the Browns do enough with Austin Davis? The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the pair.
Oakland at Kansas City: This series was once a great ‘under’ bet but the ‘over’ has cashed in four straight meetings. The Chiefs quietly own the second best scoring defense (18 PPG) in the league and the Raiders have been surprisingly better defensively on the road (22.9 PPG) than at home (27 PPG).
San Diego at Denver: Low total (41) for this series and hard to lean high based on the ‘under’ results (5-1-1) for Denver at home this season and their style under backup QB Brock Osweiler. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles and that includes Denver’s 17-3 win at San Diego in Week 13.
Seattle at Arizona: The Cardinals ripped the Seahawks 39-32 in mid-November and that total closed at 43 ½. This week’s number is 47 and many believe Seattle could lay up in this game knowing that it’s in the playoffs already and will be on the road next weekend regardless of this outcome. Arizona’s defense has only surrendered 12.2 PPG in its last five, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1.
Under the Lights
We’ve reached the final primetime game of the regular season as the Vikings and Packers square off for the NFC North division. The ‘under’ has gone 29-21 (58%) in night games this season and both Minnesota (2-1) and Green Bay (3-2) have helped that cause.
This game opened at 48 ½ and has dropped down to 45 ½ as of Saturday morning. In the first meeting between the pair, Green Bay ran past Minnesota 30-13 on the road and the ‘under’ (45) connected.
The Packers were known to be a great ‘over’ bet in recent seasons but the club has watched the ‘under’ go 10-5 this season and that includes a 6-1 mark at Lambeau Field. Minnesota has also leaned to the ‘under’ (10-4-1) this season but as I noted in last week’s piece, the Vikings have put up some crooked numbers on offense under Zimmer towards the end of the season and the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run entering this game.
The last two games between the pair at Lambeau Field have both went ‘over’ the number and Green Bay has put up 23-plus points in nine straight home meetings against the Vikings.
For those looking for seasonal angles on the last game of the regular season, listed below are the matchups dating back to 2008.
2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)
The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight SNF Finales and six of the last seven games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.
Only one road team has manage to win this game and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys.
Fearless Predictions
The holiday weekend cost us $220 and the Bears-Buccaneers loss was tough to stomach plus the Falcons didn’t help the cause -- again. It wasn’t a disaster of a season but certainly not profitable ($1,020) after 16 weeks. Let’s finish strong and head to the playoffs. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year!
Best Over: Jacksonville-Houston 45 ½
Best Under: Baltimore-Cincinnati 41 ½
Best Team Total: Over 29 Steelers
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 44 New Orleans-Atlanta
Under 56 New England-Miami
Under 46 ½ St. Louis-San Francisco
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Post by Makers on Jan 3, 2016 6:33:35 GMT -5
Gridiron Angles - Week 17
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Patriots are 13-0 ATS (15.27 ppg) since Nov 03, 2002 on the road after a loss where they allowed at least 22 first downs.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Bears are 0-12-2 ATS (-9.36 ppg) since Dec 18, 2011 at home after a game with a rushing touchdown.
TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:
-- The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS (11.17 ppg) since Sep 27, 2015 after a game in which Doug Baldwin had at least 5 receptions.
NFL CHOICE TRENDS:
-- The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-16.50 ppg) since Jan 03, 2010 off a game as a favorite where they threw for at least 250 yards.
-- The Eagles are 11-0 OU (10.27 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 after a loss where they allowed more points than expected.
TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:
-- Teams are 0-7 OU since October 2011 coming off a home game where Darren Sproles had at least 40 receiving yards.
NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Bears are 10-0 OU (9.55 ppg) since Nov 20, 2011 after a win in which they were outgained by their opponent.
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Panthers are 0-10 OU (-7.65 ppg) since October 2006 as a home favorite off a game as a favorite where they allowed more points than expected.
SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams that have thrown at least 3 TD passes in back-to-back games are 149-116-5 OU. Active on Washington and New Orleans.
NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Lions are 0-11 ATS on grass when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a multiple-point win.
NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Rams are 0-8 OU when one game under 500 after Week 8.
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Post by Makers on Jan 3, 2016 8:04:27 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (PHILADELPHIA) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games 70-40 over the last 10 seasons. ( 63.6% | 0.0 units ) 5-5 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (BALTIMORE) off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, in the second half of the season 67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
SEATTLE at ARIZONA
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record 41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Play On - Any team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season 25-10 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )
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nose
Premium Member
Posts: 3,174 
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Post by nose on Jan 3, 2016 10:01:55 GMT -5
Jets -3
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nose
Premium Member
Posts: 3,174
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Post by nose on Jan 3, 2016 10:02:14 GMT -5
Like the avatar!
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Post by Gooba on Jan 3, 2016 10:25:11 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
NFL | SEATTLE at ARIZONA
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
NFL | PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (PHILADELPHIA) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games
70-40 over the last 10 seasons. ( 63.6% | 0.0 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | ST LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total in a game involving two poor teams (outgained by 40-100 YPG) after 8+ games
172-100 since 1997. ( 63.2% | 62.0 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.8 units )
NFL | BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (BALTIMORE) off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, in the second half of the season
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
NFL | WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Play On - Any team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season
25-10 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )
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Post by Gooba on Jan 3, 2016 10:56:33 GMT -5
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 17
NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Buffalo: 12-4 UNDER as an underdog
Tampa Bay at Carolina, 4:25 ET
Tampa Bay: 35-16 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more
Carolina: 8-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 8-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Miami: 2-8 ATS as an underdog
Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 26-11 UNDER in the last 2 weeks of the regular season
Cincinnati: 8-2 ATS as a favorite
New Orleans at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 62-41 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival
Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 9-6 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 1-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 96-67 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5
Cleveland: 21-39 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Oakland at Kansas City, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 29-54 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
Kansas City: 13-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 3-10 ATS revenging a loss against opponent
Indianapolis: 6-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
Washington at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Washington: 5-3 ATS off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog
Dallas: 1-5 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games
Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Chicago: 73-48 OVER as a home favorite
Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 11-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses
New York: 19-8 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points
Minnesota at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Minnesota: 11-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Green Bay: 35-18 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points
San Diego at Denver, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 81-57 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 9-21 ATS at home after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 games
St Louis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 0-7 ATS in road games off a division game
San Francisco: 6-0 UNDER in home games after a loss by 14 or more points
Seattle at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 7-0 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Arizona: 9-22 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
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