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Post by Gooba on Jun 2, 2016 6:01:15 GMT -5
'On the Diamond '
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles June 2, 7:05 EST
The closing matchup of a four game series between Boston and Baltimore this evening features two starters coming at this game from opposite ends of the spectrum. According to current odds the Bosox are -$1.25 to -$1.35 road favorites depending on locale with the total set at 9.5 runs across most shops.
Boston hands the ball to consistent Rick Porcello carrying a 7-2 record, 3.68 ERA to the hill tossing six or more innings in eight of his ten starts while allowing three or less runs in seven of those ten trips to the mound. In contrast, Orioles counter with Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 6.36 ERA) off his shortest outing of the campaign. The righthander is saddled with an 0-3 skid his last four starts tagged for 23 runs (19 earned) giving him an ERA north of 10.0 over the span. Jimenez also heads to the mound 1-3 in eight starts vs Boston since joining Orioles (3-5 TSR), 2-5 in twelve career starts vs Red Sox with his teams recording 5 wins, 7 losses.
Orioles losing seven of their last ten look primed for another letdown here in handing the ball to the struggling Jimenez who's sure to get rocked by the top ranked Red Sox lineup platting 5.98 runs/game on the campaign, 6.8 runs/game during this current road swing.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 2, 2016 6:01:51 GMT -5
MLB
Thursday's games
National League games
Giants @ Braves
Bumgarner is 5-0, 1.64 in his last seven starts (over 5-2).
Blair is 0-3, 7.33 in his six starts, last four of which went over.
Giants are 13-4 in last 18 road games; four of their last five games went over. Atlanta won four of last five games; five of their last seven games went over.
Dodgers @ Cubs
19-year old Urias allowed three runs in 2.2 IP (81 PT) in his MLB debut.
Hendricks is 3-2, 2.41 in his last six starts (under 7-2)..
Dodgers won seven of last ten games; their last three games stayed under. Cubs won 12 of last 16 home games; four of their last five games stayed under.
Brewers @ Phillies
Anderson is 1-2, 3.74 in his last four stats, three of which stayed under.
Eickhoff is 1-4, 4.30 in his last five starts; five of his last six starts stayed under.
Milwaukee won six of its last nine games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Philly lost ten of last 12 games; six of its last eight home games stayed under.
Pirates @ Marlins
Nicasio is 1-2, 7.65 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
Chen is 0-1, 4.86 in his last three starts; four of his last six starts went over.
Pirates lost four of last five games; four of their last five road games stayed under. Miami won three of its last four games; three of its last four home tilts stayed under. .
Reds @ Rockies
Simon is 0-2, 9.78 in his last four starts (over 4-0-1 in his last five).
Butler is 2-2, 4.88 in his five starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Cincinnati lost 13 of last 16 games; over is 11-4-2 in their last 17. Colorado lost seven of its last ten games (over 8-2).
American League games
Red Sox @ Orioles
Porcello is 2-2, 5.04 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.
Jimenez is 0-3, 13.89 in his last three starts; his last four all went over
Red Sox won three of last four games; over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 games. Baltimore lost seven of last ten games; over is 4-1-1 in its last six games.
Royals @ Indians
Ventura is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts; four of his last five starts went over.
Carrasco was 2-0, 2.42 in four starts before going on DL (over 2-2).
Royals won 10 of last 12 games; over is 8-0-1 in their last nine. Cleveland lost four of its last six games; 11 of their last 12 home games went over the total.
Rays @ Twins
Moore is 1-3, 6.41 in his last seven starts (over 5-1-1).
Gibson was 0-3, 7.08 in four starts before going on DL (under 3-1).
Rays lost ten of last 12 games; over is 11-1-1 in their last 13 road games. Twins lost 11 of their last 16 games; over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games.
Bronx @ Tigers
Pineda is 1-3, 8.85 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1).
Boyd allowed three runs in five IP (94 PT) in his first '16 start.
New York lost four of its last five games; under is 18-8-1 in their road games. Tigers lost four of their last five games; over is 5-2 in their last seven hme games.
Interleague
Mariners @ Padres
Miley is 5-0, 3.86 in his last seven starts (over 5-1-1).
Rea is 0-1, 6.00 in his last three starts (over 5-2 in his last seven).
Padres lost eight of last ten games; seven of their last eight games went over. Seattle is 14-5 in its last 19 road games; its last eight games went over.
Diamondbacks @ Astros
Greinke is 3-0, 3.43 in his last three starts (over 3-1-1 in last five).
Keuchel is 0-2, 7.11 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
Astros won eight of their last nine games; over is 5-1 in their last six games Arizona lost seven of last nine games; its last 12 games went over the total.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
SF-Atl-- Bumgarner 8-3; Blair 1-5
LA-Chi-- Urias 0-1; Hendricks 4-5
Cin-Colo-- Simon 2-7; Butler 2-3
Mil-Phil-- Anderson 3-7; Eickhoff 3-7
Pitt-Mia-- Nicasio 5-4; Chen 5-5
Bos-Blt-- Porcello 7-3; Jimenez 4-6
KC-Clev-- Ventura 7-3; Carrasco 4-0
TB-Min-- Moore 4-6; Gibson 1-3
NY-Det-- Pineda 3-7; Boyd 0-1
Sea-SD-- Miley 7-3; Rea 5-4
Az-Hst-- Greinke 7-4; Keuchel 4-7
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
SF-Atl-- Bumgarner 2-11; Blair 3-6
LA-Chi-- Urias 1-1; Hendricks 2-9
Cin-Colo-- Simon 4-9; Butler 2-5
Mil-Phil-- Anderson 4-10; Eickhoff 4-10
Pitt-Mia-- Nicasio 3-9; Chen 4-10
Bos-Blt-- Porcello 2-10; Jimenez 4-10
KC-Clev-- Ventura 3-10; Carrasco 0-4
TB-Min-- Moore 2-10; Gibson 2-4
NY-Det-- Pineda 6-10; Boyd 0-1
Sea-SD-- Miley 4-10; Rea 4-9
Az-Hst-- Greinke 2-11; Keuchel 4-11
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Post by Gooba on Jun 2, 2016 6:02:38 GMT -5
Five to Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, June 2, 2016, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
In December 2013, the Minnesota Twins signed pitcher Phil Hughes to a three-year, $24 million free-agent deal despite some inconsistent results from Hughes while he was with the Yankees. It looked like a brilliant move at first for Minnesota, which can't compete for the major free agents, as Hughes was 16-10 with a 3.52 ERA in 2014 and set the big-league record for the best strikeout-to-walk ratio by a starter at 11.625 per nine innings. He had 186 strikeouts and just 18 walks. So then the Twins did something stupid. In December 2014, they reworked his remaining deal into a $42 million extension. I don't get why teams do this. If you have a guy under a good contract, take advantage of it -- it's why the Cubs shouldn't extend Jake Arrieta. Just let him pitch out his deal through the 2017 season. I mention this because Hughes has predictably regressed in a big way and is 1-7 with a 5.74 ERA this year. And now Manager Paul Molitor has sent Hughes to the bullpen for long relief, a role he hasn't had since 2009 with the Yankees. Teams like the Twins can't afford to make expensive mistakes like this.
Giants at Braves (+185, 7.5)
San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner has never pitched a big-league no-hitter, and I'm not about to predict that happens in Thursday's matinee (12:10 p.m. ET) in Atlanta, but let's just say I wouldn't be surprised it does with how sorry the Braves are offensively and at home. Bumgarner (6-2, 2.12) was fantastic in May with a 4-0 record and 1.05 ERA in six starts. The Giants have won his past seven outings overall. The lefty was 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA in two starts last year against the Braves. Ender Inciarte is 7-for-26 career off him with an RBI. Atlanta's Aaron Blair (0-3, 6.67) was recalled from the minors to start Saturday against Miami and was solid, allowing two runs in 5.2 innings. He was good enough to stick in the rotation. Blair has never faced the Giants.
Key trends: The Giants are 16-5 in Bumgarner's past 21 road starts vs. teams with a losing record. The Braves are 1-4 in Blair's past five vs. teams with a winning record. The "over/under" has gone under in three of Bumgarner's past four in Atlanta.
Early lean: Giants and under.
Diamondbacks at Astros (-130, 7.5)
Arizona will add the DH for this interleague game. Matchup of very disappointing Cy Young winners here. For Arizona, it's Zack Greinke, who won the AL Cy Young in 2009 with Kansas City and finished second in the NL voting last year to Chicago's Arrieta despite leading the majors in ERA. Greinke (6-3, 4.71) can't seem to put it together on a consistent basis with his new team. He had a couple of quality starts in a row but then allowed four runs in six innings vs. the Padres on Saturday. He gave up a solo home run to Matt Kemp in the first then held the Padres scoreless until the sixth, when they added three more. Houston's Jose Altuve is a career .533 hitter off him in 15 at-bats. Luis Valbuena is 10-for-23 off him with three doubles and a homer. It's 2015 AL Cy Young winner and lefty Dallas Keuchel (3-6, 5.58) for Houston. He does come off a promising start and his first win since mid-April, allowing two runs in seven innings at the Angels. Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt struggles against him, going 2-for-13 with eight strikeouts.
Key trends: Arizona is 5-1 in Greinke's past six vs. teams with a losing record. Houston is 6-1 in Keuchel's past seven at home vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 5-2-1 in his past eight vs. teams with a losing record.
Early lean: Astros and under. Guess I have faith in both guys.
Red Sox at Orioles (+105, 9)
Boston likely will be again without outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for this game after he was placed on the paternity list Tuesday. Bradley might be an All-Star this year as he's hitting .331 with nine homers and 37 RBIs and had a 29-game hitting streak that was snapped last week. Cuban bust Rusney Castillo replaced him on the active roster. Bradley is allowed to miss as many as three games. The Sox start Rick Porcello (7-2, 3.68) here, and suddenly that huge extension he got last season doesn't look so bad for the team. He hasn't faced Baltimore this season and is 3-7 with a 5.45 ERA in 12 career starts against the Orioles. Adam Jones is 9-for-34 off him with a homer and 10 strikeouts. Manny Machado hits .389 against Porcello in 18 at-bats. Chris Davis has three homers in 26 at-bats off him. Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 6.36) is about to lose his rotation spot. He has allowed six runs in each of his past three outings and lasted just 1.2 innings Saturday in Cleveland. Buck Showalter didn't exactly give him a ringing endorsement after. Jimenez lost in Boston on April 13, allowing four runs in five innings. Dustin Pedroia is a .385 career hitter off him. David Ortiz is just 2-for-20.
Key trends: The Red Sox are 5-2 in Porcello's past seven vs. the AL East. The Orioles are 2-5 in Jimenez's past seven starts. The over is 5-2 in Jimenez's past seven at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Red Sox and over.
Royals at Indians (-159, 7.5)
Now that the White Sox have faded and Royals are beaten up, the AL Central is there for the Cleveland Indians to take. When healthy, they should have the best rotation in the division, if not the AL, and the Tribe get back one of those guys on Thursday as Carlos Carrasco (2-0, 2.45) will be activated off the disabled list. It will be Carrasco's first start since he strained his left hamstring covering first base in Detroit on April 24. Manager Terry Francona said Carrasco will probably be on an 80-pitch limit. Carrasco owned the Royals in 2015, going 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. They hit just .160 off him. Lorenzo Cain is 6-for-19 off him. Eric Hosmer is 5-for-17 with three extra-base hits. Kansas City's Yordano Ventura (4-3, 5.17) was shelled by the White Sox last time out, allowing seven runs and nine hits over seven innings, but his offense bailed him out. Ventura lost in Cleveland on May 6, allowing five runs in four innings. Jason Kipnis is 7-for-25 with a homer against him. Carlos Santana is 6-for-20 with two dingers.
Key trends: The Royals are 0-4 in Ventura's past four road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Indians are 5-0 in Carrasco's past five series openers. The Indians are 4-0 in Carrasco's past four vs. K.C. The over is 6-0 in Ventura's past six vs. Cleveland.
Early lean: Indians and under.
Rays at Twins (+105, 8.5)
Minnesota just recalled its top position player prospect in outfielder Byron Buxton, but it has lost the No. 2 guy, outfielder/DH Miguel Sano, to the disabled list with a left hamstring strain suffered on Tuesday. While Buxton has been a bust at the big-league level thus far, the 23-year-old Sano has been better, this season hitting .235 with 11 homers and 27 RBIs (latter two lead team). Last year, he hit .269 with 18 homers and 52 RBIs in only 279 at-bats. Guy has plus-plus power. So that's one less worry for Tampa Bay starter Matt Moore (2-3, 5.31) on Thursday. The lefty won for the first time since April 17 on Saturday, allowing three runs in 6.2 innings against the Yankees. He is 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three career starts vs. the Twins. Joe Mauer is 2-for-4 off him with two RBIs. It's Kyle Gibson (0-3, 6.10) for Minnesota. He will be activated off the DL and take the rotation spot of Hughes. Gibson last pitched in the majors on April 22 in Washington and allowed seven runs in three innings. Tampa's Evan Longoria is 4-for-10 with four RBIs off him. Brad Miller is 5-for-11 with two doubles.
Key trends: The Rays are 2-8 in Moore's past 10 on the road. The Twins are 4-10 in their past 14 vs. a lefty. They are 1-4 in Gibson's past five at home. The over is 4-0-1 in Moore's past five.
Early lean: Rays and over
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Post by Gooba on Jun 2, 2016 6:03:18 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | NY YANKEES at DETROIT
Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts
28-12 since 1997. ( 70.0% | 21.2 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | MILWAUKEE at PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season.
The average score was: PHILADELPHIA (4.1) , OPPONENT (3.7)
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