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Post by Gooba on Jun 10, 2016 6:29:46 GMT -5
'Braves a mess'
The Atlanta Braves (17-42) are a complete mess no matter where, when they play. The club is 6-23 at home this season, 11-19 on the road, 6-13 in day games, 11-29 under the light's.
Next up, a weekend date with league leading Cubbies who win anywhere, anytime. Doubt you want to take a flyer on Atlanta as they'll be facing Hammel, Arrieta and Lester who own a combined 28-7 team start record on the year and combined 6-0 TSR vs Braves since joining Cubs.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 10, 2016 6:30:03 GMT -5
'Runs at a Premium'
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants June 10, 10:15 EST
The eyes of most baseball fans, as well as those focused on baseball betting, will be on the late Friday night matchup between host San Francisco Giants and visiting Los Angeles Dodgers in what should be a pitchers duel.
The duel in question will be between Johnny Cueto bringing a 9-1 record, 2.16 ERA, 11-1 teams start record (4-8 O/U) to the hill. Clayton Kershaw carries an 8-1 mark, 1.46 ERA and like Cueto an 11-1 team start record on the year (3-8-1 O/U).
In his last outing, Cueto handcuffed Cardinals over six innings surrendering 4 hit, 1 run picking up a 5th straight victory and eight consecutive Giant win when he touches toe to rubber (2-6 O/U). Cueto has faced Dodgers twice this season picking up a 'W' in both contest (1-1 O/U). Meanwhile, Kershaw is off a 6th straight win in seven starts (0-6-1 O/U) and has won twice vs Giants this campaign (1-1 O/U).
The presence of tonight’s starters oddsmakers have noted the possibility of a low-scoring affair setting the total at 5.5 to 6.0 depending on locale. While some may be scared off at the low totals number, that usually is a sign to jump in as teams are 3-6 O/U this season when the run total is 6.0 or lower.
Cueto showing he can keep the score low allowing 2 or fewer runs in 6 straight starts has resulted in 5 'Under', 1 'Over'. Kershaw obviously able to limit runs has surrendered 2 or fewer in seven straight starts cashing 6 'Under', 1 'Push'. Additionally, in 15 Kershaw starts in San Francisco the 'Under' has cashed 12 times, with 2 'Over', 1 'Push'.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 10, 2016 6:39:27 GMT -5
MLB
Friday's games
National League games
Phillies @ Nationals Hellickson is 0-2, 3.32 in his last three starts; five of his last six starts stayed under.
Strasburg is 3-0, 2.63 in his last four starts; his last nine starts went over.
Phillies lost 14 of last 19 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Phils are 3-6 in road series openers. Washington won three of last four games; they're 5-3 in home series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Cardinals @ Pirates Wacha is 1-6, 7.16 in his last eight starts; his last six starts went over total.
Cole is 0-1, 3.50 in his last three starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten starts.
Cardinals won four of last five games; they're 3-6 in road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. Pittsburgh lost nine of last 13 games; they flew to Denver and back for one game Thursday. Pirates are 6-4 in home series openers; over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.
Cubs @ Braves Hammel is 2-0, 1.65 in his last three starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven.
Norris is 0-3, 10.45 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over.
Cubs won 12 of last 15 games; they're 7-2 in road series openers. Four of their last five road games went over. Atlanta lost six of last seven games; they're 3-7 in home series openers. Five of their last seven games stayed under.
Mets @ Brewers Harvey is 1-1, 0.64 in his last two starts; six of his last eight starts stayed under.
Guerra is 3-1, 2.97 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1).
Mets are 5-3 in last eight road games,; four of their last five games stayed under total. Milwaukee won five of its last eight games; over is 5-3 in its last eight home games.
Padres @ Rockies Cashner is 1-3, 5.09 in his last four starts; four of his last six went over.
Gray is 3-0, 3.10 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over.
Padres lost eight of last nine road games; they're 5-4 in road series openers. Six of last seven San Diego road games went over. Colorado won four of its last five home games; they're 4-5 in home series openers. Six of their last seven home games went over.
Marlins @ Diamondbacks Nicolino is 0-3, 5.34 in his last six starts; five of his last seven went over.
Corbin is 1-2, 7.88 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Marlins lost four of last six games; they're 6-3 in road series openers. Last five Miami road games went over. Arizona lost 15 of last 21 home games; they're 2-8 in home series openers. Seven of last eight Arizona home games went over.
Dodgers @ Giants Kershaw is 6-0, 0.81 in his last seven starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five.
Cueto is 5-0, 1.19 in his last six starts (under 5-1).
Dodgers lost eight of last 12 road games; they're 2-8 in road series openers. Eight of last ten LA games stayed under total. San Francisco won six of last seven home games; they're 4-5 in home series openers. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games.
American League games
Tigers @ New York Pelfrey is 1-1, 5.54 in his last seven starts (over 5-1-1). .
Sabathia is 2-2, 1.45 in his last five starts (five of last six under).
Bronx won five of last six games, 5-4 in home series openers; over is 8-4-2 in their last 14 home games. Tigers won five of its last six games; they're 4-6 in road series openers. Over is 7-3 in their road series openers.
Orioles @ Blue Jays Gausman is 0-2, 5.29 in his last three starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
Estrada is 3-0, 2.03 in his last four starts (under 9-2).
Toronto lost three of last four games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11. Baltimore won eight of its last nine games; its last four road games went over.
Astros @ Rays McCullers is 3-0, 4.76 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Andriese is 4-0, 2.97 in his six starts (under 3-2-1).
Astros lost three of their last four games, with last three staying under. Houston is 3-7 in road series openers. Tampa Bay won five of its last six games; they're 2-7 in home series openers. Seven of Rays' last nine games went over the total.
Red Sox @ Twins Wright is 3-0, 3.43 in his last three starts (over 3-1-1 in his last five).
Duffey is 1-2, 7.94 in his last four starts, which all went over.
Red Sox lost five of last seven games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five. Boston is 6-4 in road series openers. Minnesota lost seven of last ten games; they're 5-5 in home series openers. Nine of Twins' last ten home games went over the total.
Royals @ White Sox Kennedy is 0-2, 5.60 in his last five starts (under 6-2-3).
Sale is 0-2, 6.48 in his last three starts; seven of his last eight went over.
Royals lost last eight road games; they're 3-7 in road series openers. Under is 4-1-1 in KC's last six games. Chicago is 7-20 in its last 27 games, 4-5 in home series openers. Under is 8-4 in White Sox' last 12 home games.
Indians @ Angels Kluber is 3-1, 3.29 in his last four starts (under 7-3-1 in his last 11). .
Santiago is 0-1, 10.91 in his last four starts; six of his last seven went over.
Indians won seven of last nine games; they're 5-5 in road series openers. Under is 4-0-1 in their last five road games. Angels lost their last four games, are 5-5 in home series openers; four of their last five home games stayed under.
Rangers @ Mariners Holland is 2-0, 2.07 in his last two starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Iwakuma is 3-1, 4.33 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.
Rangers are 15-4 in their last 19 games, 5-3 in road series openers; four of their last five road games stayed under. Seattle won four of last six home games, is 4-6 in home series openers- over is 11-4-1 in its last 16 games overall.
Interleague
A's @ Reds Gray is 0-4, 10.12 in his last six starts; seven of his last eight went over.
DeSclafani is making his first '16 start; he is 11-15, 4.38 in 36 major league starts, 0-1, 4.50 in five rehab starts in minors this year.
A's lost their last seven road games; they're 6-4 in road series openers. Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 road games. Cincinnati is 6-4 in its last 10 games, 5-6 in home series openers- their last five home games went over the total.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Phil-Wsh-- Hellickson 6-6; Strasburg 11-1 StL-Pitt-- Wacha 5-7; Cole 6-5 Chi-Atl-- Hammel 9-2; Norris 1-5 NY-Mil-- Harvey 4-8; Guerra 6-1 SD-Col-- Cashner 5-5; Gray 5-4 Mia-Az-- Nicolino 3-5; Corbin 5-7 LA-SF-- Kershaw 11-1; Cueto 11-1
Det-NY-- Pelfrey 4-7; Sabathia 4-5 Balt-Tor-- Gausman 4-5; Estrada 6-5 Hst-TB-- McCullers 4-1; Andriese 4-2 Bos-Minn-- Wright 6-5; Duffey 2-6 KC-Chi-- Kennedy 7-4; Sale 9-3 Clev-LAA-- Kluber 5-7; Santiago 8-4 Tex-Sea-- Holland 6-5; Iwakuma 6-6
A's-Cin-- Gray 4-6; DeSclafani 0-0
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Phil-Wsh-- Hellickson 5-12; Strasburg 3-12 StL-Pitt-- Wacha 5-12; Cole 3-11 Chi-Atl-- Hammel 2-11; Norris 2-6 NY-Mil-- Harvey 3-12; Guerra 2-7 SD-Col-- Cashner 3-10; Gray 4-9 Mia-Az-- Nicolino 2-8; Corbin 6-12 LA-SF-- Kershaw 1-12; Cueto 3-12
Det-NY-- Pelfrey 6-11; Sabathia 0-9 Balt-Tor-- Gausman 4-9; Estrada 3-11 Hst-TB-- McCullers 2-5; Andriese 2-6 Bos-Minn-- Wright 5-11; Duffey 2-8 KC-Chi-- Kennedy 3-11; Sale 3-12 Clev-LAA-- Kluber 2-12; Santiago 7-12 Tex-Sea-- Holland 2-11; Iwakuma 2-12
A's-Cin-- Gray 2-10; DeSclafani 0-0
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Post by Gooba on Jun 10, 2016 6:45:41 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO Play On - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts 376-243 since 1997. ( 60.7% | 111.4 units ) 17-17 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.7 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | TEXAS at SEATTLE TEXAS is 93-70 (+40.4 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: TEXAS (5.0) , OPPONENT (4.5
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Post by Gooba on Jun 10, 2016 6:46:57 GMT -5
Five to Follow MLB Betting: Friday, June 10, 2016, Opening Line Report by Alan Matthews
Two aces left their games early on Wednesday with issues in their pitching arms, and both teams will be on pins and needles Thursday awaiting test results on said arms. The Rangers should win the AL West with a healthy Yu Darvish, but in just his third start back from Tommy John surgery he had to leave Wednesday's game with tightness in his pitching shoulder. Darvish thinks it's nothing and that he will make his next start, but he's obviously not a doctor. Potentially more worrisome was Phillies young right-hander Vince Velasquez leaving after just two pitches Wednesday -- fastballs that didn't top 87 mph when he averages 94 -- against the Cubs with right biceps soreness. Velasquez had Tommy John surgery back in 2010. Sometimes right biceps soreness can be a precursor to a major issue. Velasquez is a huge part of Philly's future, so I doubt we see him for a while as the team will be extra cautious even if it's minor.
Phillies at Nationals (-270, 8)
This will already be the 10th meeting of the season between the teams, with Washington leading 5-4. Each club swept the other on its home field once already. The Nationals hadn't lost a start by Stephen Strasburg (9-0, 2.85) since last Sept. 9 but did on Saturday in Cincinnati, with him leaving after 5.1 inning due to a calf strain/cramps and allowing three runs in 5.1 innings. Strasburg said he was simply dehydrated and was fine the next day, so he should be good to go here. Somehow, he hasn't faced Philly this year. He was 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA in five starts against them in 2015. Maikel Franco is 3-for-7 off him with a homer. Philly's Jeremy Hellickson (4-3, 3.80) is a potential trade chip if he keeps pitching well and the Phillies keep fading. Hellickson is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA this year in three starts vs. Washington. Daniel Murphy is 3-for-9 off him with two doubles and a homer. Bryce Harper is 3-for-8 with five walks.
Key trends: The Phillies are 1-4 in Hellickson's past five series openers. The Nats are 7-1 in their past eight at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The "over/under" has gone under in five of the past seven meetings.
Early lean: Nationals and under.
A's at Reds (+100, 9.5)
Oakland will lose the designated hitter for this interleague series. A's ace Sonny Gray (3-5, 5.77) returned from a disabled list stint (back) on Sunday in Houston and had one of his better starts of the year, allowing a run and five hits in five innings. Gray hasn't won since April 22. He will bat for the first time this season. The Reds think young right-hander Anthony DeSclafani is a key piece of their future and he will make his season debut in this game. He was to be the team's opening day starter, but he strained an oblique during spring training and then had a setback last month. DeSclafani pitched a bullpen session on Tuesday and came out in the clear. I'm assuming he will be on a pitch limit for a while. He was 9-13 with a 4.05 ERA last year. A few A's have seen him. Chris Coghlan is 3-for-9 with two doubles. Coco Crisp is 0-for-2.
Key trends: The A's are 2-7 in Gray's past nine on the road. The Reds are 0-6 in DeSclafani's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 7-1 in Gray's past eight.
Early lean: A's and over.
Mets at Brewers (+120, 8.5)
If the Mets could just get all their position players healthy, they might be scary again because Matt Harvey is finally pitching like he was expected to and has in the past. Harvey (4-8, 4.95) has gone a season-high seven innings in his last two starts and allowed just one combined run and six hits. He actually lost Sunday in Miami, however. This will be Harvey's first career start against Milwaukee. The Brew Crew go with Junior Guerra (3-1, 3.61), who has been a pleasant surprise. The 31-year-old, in his first big-league season, took a no-decision against the Phillies in his last start, allowing three runs in six innings. Guerra has made seven starts and four have been quality. He hasn't faced the Mets.
Key trends: The Mets are 2-6 in Harvey's past eight on the road. The under is 6-2 in his past eight overall.
Early lean: Mets and under.
Rangers at Mariners (-140, 8.5)
Texas might have another issue with third baseman Adrian Beltre as he also left Wednesday's game but with a hamstring injury. So monitor his status. Seattle made what has proven a very good trade this offseason in acquiring outfielder Leonys Martin from Texas, and the Mariners believe they will be able to activate Martin off the DL on Friday. The team definitely has missed Martin, who was hitting .262 with nine homers, 20 RBIs and eight steals as Seattle was 10 over .500 after winning the last game he played on May 25 before going on the DL with a hamstring injury. Martin had a hit in nine straight games. He will face off against Rangers lefty starter Derek Holland (5-4, 4.53). He is working on a string of four straight quality starts, not allowing more than two earned runs in any. Holland is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in two starts this year against Seattle. Martin is 0-for-3 against his former teammate. Robinson Cano hits .372 off him with two homers and nine RBIs in 43 at-bats. Nelson Cruz is 4-for-14 with two homers and four RBIs against Holland. The M's go with Hisashi Iwakuma (4-5, 4.13). He is 0-2 this year vs. Texas in three starts despite a solid 3.00 ERA. Beltre has three homers off him and hits .289 in 45 at-bats. Rougned Odor is 7-for-18 with a homer.
Key trends: The Rangers are 5-1 in Holland's past six in Seattle. The Mariners are 5-2 in Iwakuma's past seven at home vs. Texas. The under is 5-2-2 in Holland's past nine against the M's.
Early lean: Rangers and under.
Dodgers at Giants (+155, 6)
Clearly the pitching matchup of the night between these blood rivals. The Dodgers go with lefty and Cy Young betting favorite Clayton Kershaw (8-1, 1.46). He was typically good on Saturday against Atlanta, shutting out the Braves on three hits over a season-low six innings. He was at 96 pitches through those six, so there was really no reason to bring Kershaw out for the seventh. Kershaw wasn't totally sharp as he allowed the leadoff batter to reach base in four of his six innings, once by hitting the opposing pitcher for the first time in his career. Kershaw is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in two starts vs. the Giants in 2016. Brandon Belt continues to flail against him, going 3-for-43 with 23 strikeouts. I am confident I could do that. Buster Posey has two homers and seven RBIs off Kershaw but also 16 strikeouts in 82 at-bats. The Giants go with Johnny Cueto (9-1, 2.16) on six days of rest. He pitched last Friday in St. Louis, allowing one unearned run on four hits over six innings. Cueto's Giants debut was April 16 at the Dodgers as he allowed one run over 7.1 innings.
Key trends: The Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw's past four in Frisco. The under has hit in 10 of his past 12 there. The under is 5-1 in Cueto's past six.
Early lean: I can't pick Kershaw in every game, right? Even the best lose once in a while. I'll go Giants here and certainly under.
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