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Post by Gooba on Jun 16, 2016 5:26:13 GMT -5
'What a mess'
Cincinnati at Atlanta June 16, 12:10 EST
Atlanta is a mess and have a losing record in just about every statistical way imaginable. Braves lose at home (8-27), on the road (11-19), during the day (6-15), at night (13-31) etc.... Matching those gaudy numbers Braves are 0-7 at home, 0-4 in day games, 0-6 vs a team with a winning record handing the ball to Matt Wisler (2-7) the scheduled starter for Thursday afternoon.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 16, 2016 5:26:37 GMT -5
'Betting Big Favorites'
It's a common held belief that betting big favorites in baseball can turn out to be extremely costly over the long haul, especially favorites of -$200 or more. Many baseball bettors have this theory ingrained in their heads and usually bypass those games when looking at the schedule. Being old school, must confess to being amoung them, untill a recent study revealed surprising results.
Between 2010 and 2015, betting nothing but favorites of -$200 or greater resulted in a 71.3% win rate (697-281) but more importanly yielded a +$4619 profit for a 4.7% return on investment. If the big favorite was off a loss, they were 206-85 in their next game good for $1,606 in profit, 5.5% return on money risked.
Obviously, wildly betting each and every favorite of -$200 or more demands a huge investment in order to ride the ups/downs that occur through out a season. That in mind, focusing on fewer plays to consider with less total money at risk was in order. To that end, the analysis revealed the best strategy was to concentrate strickly on a big road favorites. In this case, the road favorites won at a 75.9% clip stuffing +$1921 into betting accounts for an enourmous 23.1% return on investment.
So much for history, but what about the current 2016 campaign. Well, heading into Tuesday June 15th action the trend is alive and well. Betting nothing but favorites of -$200 or more has returned 12.2% on money risked (+$921) split between +$542 for homies (44-17), +$379 for teams wearing road jersey's (10-3). Once again, focusing sticking on road favorites produced a whopping 29.2% return.
While there's no guarantee big favorites will continue to perform the rest of the way, it's something that bettors can't afford to overlook down the stretch.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 16, 2016 5:27:56 GMT -5
MLB
Thursday's games
National League games
Pirates @ Mets Nicasio is 1-1, 4.60 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under.
Colon is 2-0, 2.16 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts.
Pirates lost 11 of last 15 games; five of their last seven games went over. New York lost 11 of its last 18 games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Reds @ Braves Straily is 2-0, 3.60 in his last three starts; four of his last six starts went over.
Wisler is 0-4, 8.14 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.
Atlanta lost nine of last 12 games; four of its last five games went over. Reds are 10-5 in their last 15 games, eight of their last ten road games went over the total.
Nationals @ Padres Roark is 2-0, 3.71 in his last three starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12 starts.
Johnson is 0-3, 7.71 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
Padres lost five of their last seven games; four of their last five home games went under total. Washington won eight of last ten games; six of their last seven road games went over the total.
Brewers @ Dodgers Guerra is 1-1, 3.00 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Kazmir is 2-0, 2.86 in his last four starts; six of his last eight starts went over.
Milwaukee lost five of last six road games; five of its last six road games went over the total. Dodgers won eight of last ten at home; six of their last seven home games went under the total.
American League games
Orioles @ Red Sox Wilson is 0-4, 6.99 in his last five starts (over 5-2-2).
Rodriguez is 1-1, 6.06 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
Orioles lost four of last five games; seven of its last nine road games went over total. Boston is 5-7 in its last 12 games, over is 14-5 in last 19 games at Fenway Park.
Mariners @ Rays Paxton is 0-1, 2.19 in his last two starts (under 2-1).
Snell allowed one run in five IP (90 PT) in his only '16 start, back on April 20.
Mariners lost nine of last 12 games; five of their last seven road games went over. Tampa Bay won nine of last 11 games; under is 21-8 in their last 29 home games.
Tigers @ Royals Verlander is 4-1, 2.48 in his last five starts; five of his last six starts stayed under.
Duffy is 2-1, 2.45 in his last three starts (under 4-2).
Tigers won seven of their last 11 games; nine of its last 11 road games stayed under. Royals won their last nine home games; under is 7-3-1 in KC's last 11 games.
Bronx @ Twins Sabathia is 3-2, 1.18 in his last six starts; six of his last seven starts stayed under.
Gibson is 0-4, 7.27 in five starts this year (under 3-2)
New York lost seven of last nine road games; four of their last five road games went over the total. Minnesota lost five of last seven games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 home games.
Rangers @ A's Lewis is 3-0, 3.09 in his last five starts; five of his last seven starts went over.
Mendgen allowed two runs in 5.2 IP (104 PT) in his first '16 start.
Rangers are 18-6 in their last 24 games; nine of their last ten e road tilts went over. A's lost nine of last eleven games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games.
Interleague
Blue Jays @ Phillies Happ is 2-3, 6.03 in his last six starts; under is 5-1-1 in his road starts. .
Nola is 2-3, 4.71 in his last five starts, four of which went over.
Phillies lost 18 of last 24 games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Toronto won five of its last six games; five of its last seven games went over the total. .
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Pitt-NY-- Nicasio 6-5; Colon 7-5 Cin-Atl-- Straily 6-5; Wisler 2-10 Mil-LA-- Guerra 6-2; Kazmir 6-7 Wsh-SD-- Roark 6-7; Johnson 0-1/0-2
Balt-Bos-- Wilson 4-5; Rodriguez 2-1 Sea-TB-- Paxton 0-3; Snell 0-1 Det-KC-- Verlander 7-6; Duffy 5-1 Tex-A's-- Lewis 9-4; Mendgen 0-1 NY-Min-- Sabathia 5-5; Gibson 1-4
Tor-Phil-- Happ 8-5; Nola 7-6
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Pitt-NY-- Nicasio 3-11; Colon 4-12 Cin-Atl-- Straily 2-11; Wisler 6-12 Mil-LA-- Guerra 2-8; Kazmir 7-13 Wsh-SD-- Roark 2-13; Johnson 2-3
Balt-Bos-- Wilson 4-9; Rodriguez 1-3 Sea-TB-- Paxton 1-3; Snell 1-1 Det-KC-- Verlander 5-13; Duffy 0-6 Tex-A's-- Lewis 6-13; Mendgen 0-1 NY-Min-- Sabathia 0-10; Gibson 3-5
Tor-Phil-- Happ 4-13; Nola 5-13
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Post by Gooba on Jun 16, 2016 5:28:28 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | DETROIT at KANSAS CITY Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (DETROIT) with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts 30-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.2% | 25.0 units ) 4-6 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | TEXAS at OAKLAND TEXAS is 63-52 (+33.4 Units) against the money line in Road games in road games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: TEXAS (4.3) , OPPONENT (4.2)
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