|
|
Post by Makers on Jun 22, 2016 4:37:49 GMT -5
 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Gentlemen, and lady, start your damn engines, like now. Hurry! I missed you guys. It's only been two weeks since the Sprint Cup Series last raced, but I almost have this need to see a race like I do each year before Daytona speedweeks starts when I've been waiting over two months for some action. So far, we've seen races on all types of tracks through the first 15 races, but the summer season of NASCAR brings us the two road circuits where we'll see drivers make both right and left turns. The first weekend of August will take us to Watkins Glen International, but my favorite without a doubt is Sonoma just because it's a more technical course with elevation changes. This course separates the roundy-round drivers from the truly skilled drivers. It's also got a nice back drop with the beautiful wine country in Napa and Sonoma Valley. Some drivers hate the road courses and they're real easy to locate just by looking at past history. Matt Kenseth is one of them and his odds reflect it at 50-to-1. He doesn't have any top-fives in 16 starts and has a 22nd-place average finish. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has only one top-five finish in 16 Sonoma starts with a 19.4 average finish and Denny Hamlin has just one top-five in 10 starts (22.7 avg.). Those are drivers considered to be good candidates to win weekly on all other tracks, but on the roads you throw them out of any betting or fantasy equation. The drivers you want to key on this week are the ones who excel over and over again on the roads, and specifically Sonoma. The two road courses are radically different with Watkins Glen being much faster with longer straights and sweeping turns. Entering and exiting the turns fastest at Sonoma takes special skills and there are a few who consistently do it well “Everyone likes to compare Sonoma and Watkins Glen since they’re the only two road courses that we run in a year, but they couldn’t be any more different from each other," Matt Kenseth said. "Sonoma has always been a challenge for me because it’s very slow and technical where it’s hard to pass at. Road courses lately, with the restarts being two-wide, has become some of the most aggressive racing that we do all year. Sonoma is one of my most challenging tracks on the circuit as far as finishes and stats go, but I always look to go out there and improve every race. The driver who has impressed the most at Sonoma over the past few years has been Las Vegan Kurt Busch, who has four top-five finishes there in his last five starts, including a 2011 win. Last season he was runner-up to his brother Kyle Busch, who won there for the second time in his career. Since NASCAR started keeping Loop Data at all the tracks in 2005, Kurt Busch has the top Sonoma rating at 109.3. The only other driver rated at over 100.0 is Jimmie Johnson (101.0). Kurt also leads the series in Loop categories such as 'Average Running Position'(9.613), 'Average Green Flag Speed'(90.227 mph) and 955 'Laps in the Top 15'. His 197 laps led in 15 starts is the most among active drivers. Qualifying well is huge at Sonoma and among drivers with at least three starts Kurt is the active leader with a 9.2 average start position. Just over 70 percent of all Sonoma races have been won from a Top-10 start position. Although Kyle has more Sonoma wins than his brother, his two wins are his only top-fives there in 11 starts. Kurt leads the series with seven top-five Sonoma finishes and if we look at his body of work on the roundy-round tracks, he's been even more consistent. He leads the series with 13 top-10 finishes in 15 starts and got his only win of the season at Pocono three weeks ago which is known as the Superspeedway that drives like a road course. All betting strategies this week should begin with the elder Busch brother. After that you have to look at Kyle Busch despite his win or nothing past history at Sonoma. Last season he started a string of winning four of five races on the schedule with his Sonoma win. The week off couldn't have come at better time since he's finished 30th or worse in his past four starts following his Kansas win. Despite the poor run of luck, he still leads the series with three wins and nine top-five finishes this season. “Sonoma is a neat place," Kyle Busch said. "It’s a cool area to go to up into Wine Country. I’ve always enjoyed road-course racing. Even when I was in Legends cars, I would enjoy going up there during the days that I raced there. Now that I’m on the Sprint Cup tour, it’s cool to go there every June. It’s a fun racetrack. The cars get grouped a lot closer together there than at Watkins Glen, so braking there is a lot tougher getting into turn four, turn seven, and especially turn 11. There are some opportunities in those corners to pass people. Forward bite seems to have become an issue as you get going there during the run. And you need to make sure you keep the rear tires underneath you because it’s really easy to burn them babies off when you try and pass somebody, because you go to pass somebody and hit the gas and all your rear tires want to do is spin and you can’t get alongside that guy. So, from that respect, Sonoma can be frustrating at times, as well. We just want to get in a position to win with our M&M’S Camry, then see how the strategy plays out.” Jimmie Johnson was never known as a road course driver. In fact, one of his greatest highlights was him running head-on, full speed with no brakes, into a wall at Watkins Glen when drove in the Xfinity Series. After having just one top-five in his first seven Sonoma starts, he's finished ninth or better in his past seven, including a 2010 win. Kevin Harvick has never won at Sonoma, but he's been very competitive with four top-five finishes, including fourth last season. Look for him to contend for another top-five. Clint Bowyer is using absolute junk under the hood this season as he's in kind of a lame duck situation until he takes over Tony Stewart No. 14 next year, but his skills make him someone to consider in match-ups and fantasy lineups. Maybe even a win like he did 2012? He finished third last season and leads the series with a 8.6 average finish in 10 starts. The next best average in the series is Stewart's 12.4. A.J. Allmendinger's only career win came at Watkins Glen two years ago and although he's finished 37th each of the past two Sonoma races, he's still one to be respected. He's listed as one the favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook at 7/1 odds. In seven Sonoma starts he has two top-10 finishes and has led 36 laps. Sunday's race will be the final FOX telecast of the season before the coverage shifts to NBC at Daytona. I never liked listening to Jeff Gordon's dry monotone voice in all his interviews during his career even though he was one of my favorite drivers, but he brought a huge upgrade to the FOX coverage this year with his insights. That dude brings it with details and he'll be missed weekly. And perhaps most of all, I'll just miss Mike Joy's smooth call of a race. No one does it better. It's been championship NASCAR season for FOX. Top-5 Finish Prediction: 1) #41 Kurt Busch (6/1) 2) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1) 3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (10/1) 4) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/1) 5) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1) |
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Jun 23, 2016 5:51:43 GMT -5
NASCAR betting odds for drivers to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma
By Greg Engle
Examiner.com
After a week off the NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads west to Northern California and will be turning left and right this week. Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway is the first road course race of the season. The 1.99 mile features elevation changes and 12 turns that tax both drivers and machines. There was a time when drivers known as road course “ringers” would enter the race. These racers who carry with them extensive road racing experience in other racing series, could be excepted to outshine the NASCAR competition. While there are some who still enter the event, in the last decade the regular NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers have become more adept at road courses.
Here are our favorites for Sunday’s sixteenth race of the year for your betting or fantasy racing leagues. Driver Ratings are compiled from 2005-2015 races (11 total) among active drivers at Sonoma Raceway. The Driver Rating is a number based on a formula developed by NASCAR which combines "loop data" elements such as average running position, average speed under green, number of fastest laps, and other stats. There is a maximum of 150 points that a driver can earn for each race. The odds are current as of Wednesday.
Kyle Busch (8-1) is the defending winner of this race and is tied for the most wins among active drivers here with two. The other driver is Tony Stewart, and while Stewart in his final season is a sentimental favorite, with the way he’s been running lately, it would be a stretch for him to win. Kyle on the other hand has been running strong. Kyle has three wins this season and has run well just about everywhere. He has the sixth highest driver rating in the field, 88.3.
Carl Edwards (10-1) is Kyle’s teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing and has been no slouch this season either. Edwards won here in 2014 and has been a contender almost every week. He has the same driver rating as Kyle, 88.3 and should be near the front Sunday.
Kurt Busch (6-1) has displayed some road course prowess in the last several years. Kyle’s older sibling won here in 2011, has the highest driver rating in the field, 109.3, and was second in this race last year. He already has a win this season and it would be no surprise if he added another one Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. (10-1) pulled off a surprise win here in 2013 leading a total of 19 laps. His driver rating of 83.3 is 13th best, but he has had some strong runs this season. He crashed out of this race early last year and could be looking for redemption. That extra motivation could propel him to a second career Sonoma win Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson (8-1) is back in the mix this week. Johnson won here in 2010, and has the second highest driver rating in the field, 101.0. He led a race high 45 laps early in this race last year but a call to stay out when others in the lead group pitted late in the race doomed him to a sixth place finish. With lessons learned from last year, Johnson could be the driver to beat.
OTHERS: Jamie McMurray (20-1) has never won here but has shown some strength at times. His driver rating of 87.1 is seventh best in the field. Kevin Harvick (8-1) has also never won at Sonoma. He did finish fourth here last season and has eighth best driver rating.
|
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Jun 23, 2016 5:52:43 GMT -5
NASCAR at Sonoma Betting Odds, Driver Previews
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS - After 15 Sprint Cup races with only left turns, we get to see a few right turns in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway's 1.99-mile, 12-turn road course. It's the ultimate test of a driver's skill set, and the elevation changes of Sonoma's unique course make it even more challenging than the average road course. Some drivers love the roads while others can't wait to leave town, and it's real easy to identify who those drivers are just by looking at past results.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Kurt Busch as the 5-to-1 favorite to win, which makes it the first time he's been the lone favorite by Las Vegas in a Cup race since 2006 at Bristol after he had won for the fifth time on the half-mile track. The Las Vegas native is well deserving of being tagged the favorite.
Let's take a look at all the drivers odds and how they have fared at Sonoma over their careers:
Kurt BUSCH 5/1 - With Jeff Gordon retired, Juan Montoya in IndyCar, Marcos Ambrose in Australia and Tony Stewart on the down side of his career, Kurt has taken over as the ace road course driver in the series. He tops NASCAR Loop Data with a 109.3 rating at Sonoma that takes into account several categories such average running position, average green flag speed and laps running in the top-15 — Kurt is best in all of those. His 197 laps led and seven top-five finishes are the most among active drivers. He's on a run of finishing fourth or better in his past five starts there, which began with a 2011 win. He loves the road races, especially Sonoma's technical course.
“Sonoma has always been a sentimental favorite to me — I think that track helped put me on the map when I won there in a Southwest Tour race in 1999," Kurt said. "The garage area sometimes grumbles when we go to road courses. I think that mentality has changed. Everybody has to accept that road courses are part of the NASCAR culture. There are the few who still think Sonoma is a tough track and they don’t find it quite as appealing as Watkins Glen. For me, I grew up racing there, so it’s easy for me to see it as part of the NASCAR culture.”
Jimmie JOHNSON 7/1 - There was once a time when you could get him at odds of 30-to-1 on the road courses. They were tough on him and he struggled to match his excellence from the ovals. But over the past seven seasons he's become very good at Sonoma, finishing ninth or better, including a 2010 win. In NASCAR's Loop Data, he's rated second behind Kurt Busch.
“Sonoma is so tricky," said Johnson, who led the most laps (45) in last years race. "Track position is so, so important there. It’s a quirky race and the last two times there we have been one of the better cars but just haven't had it work out, so I’m optimistic that we can get everything right over the course of the event. If you can save fuel it usually creates more opportunities. Last year it came down to tires and I was the only guy on old tires and it cost us the race. As a California native, I’m always happy to get back there."
Kevin HARVICK 7/1 - He doesn't have any wins, but he's always been competitive and has accumulated four top-fives in 15 starts, including fourth-place last season.
AJ ALLMENDINGER 7/1 - Two weeks ago at Michigan he was 500-to-1. This week he's one of the favorites and rightly so, because he's in his element. He attacks each corner, entering and exiting them a little faster than most and at the end of 12 turns of a lap his driving skills have made up for the power deficiency his car might have against the usual favorites. His only career win came at Watkins Glen and he's had two top-10s in seven Sonoma starts.
Carl EDWARDS 10/1 - He won in 2014 and has a 16.5 average finish in 11 starts. He's had top-five finishes in three of his last five starts, but finished 40th last year after being involved in accident with 30 laps to go.
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1 - He grabbed his first top-five at Sonoma with a win in 2013. In 10 starts he's averaged a 21st-place finish. Last year he qualified 12th, but wrecked his car 30 laps in. “We had a pretty good car in Sonoma last year, but just got punted off the track in the heat of the moment,” recalled Truex. “Things do get dicey on road courses.”
Kyle BUSCH 10/1 - He led a 1-2 Busch brothers finish last year for his second Sonoma win. It's basically all or nothing for him as those two wins remain his only top-fives in 11 starts. Last year's win jump started a summer season of dominance by Kyle as he won four of five races and eventually won his first championship. He needed the week off perhaps more than anyone since he had finished 30th or worse in four straight races after winning at Kansas. However, wins are all that matters in the first 26 races of the season under the Chase system and he leads the series with three.
Tony STEWART 12/1 - He'd love to emulate what Kyle Busch did last year by winning this race and then try to make the Chase by being within the top-30 in points. His odds show how much he's respected on the roads. In his younger days, he emphatically stole Jeff Gordon's king of the road course crown like a bully and has won seven times on the roads — twice at Sonoma. In 17 career starts he's averaged a 12.4 finish which is second-best among active drivers. With teammates Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick expected to have great set-ups, there is hope for seeing Stewart have some renewed glory in the series this week.
Joey LOGANO 15/1 - Last year he finished a career-best fifth and has been 16th or better in his last five starts. He gets better every time he races on the roads.
Dale EARNHARDT JR 18/1 - He had his first top-10 finish in 2014 with third-place and then finished seventh last year. He's better with age after struggling his first 14 years. "Sonoma is the most challenging track that I race at," he said. "We’ve just got to take care of our car and make it through to the end.”
Chase ELLIOTT 20/1 - He makes his Cup debut at Sonoma, but he's excelled at all levels on road courses over his career such as four top-five finishes in six Xfinity Series events. He's been getting better every week and comes off a career-best runner-up at Michigan, which was his sixth straight top-10 finish.
Jamie McMURRAY 20/1 - He has a 16.2 average finish in 13 starts with a career-best second-place in 2004. His other top-five came in 2014. He leads all active drivers with three poles.
Kasey KAHNE 30/1 - He might present the best value on the board. After finishing 23rd or worse in his first five cracks at Sonoma, he won in 2009 finished fourth in 2010 and has been eighth or better in his last three starts. “It’s a great track and in a great part of the country," he said. "My first couple of trips there were tough for me to figure out the track. Once I got it figured out we were much better and got a win. It’s one of my favorite tracks to go to.”
Kyle LARSON 30/1 - He was 28th as a rookie and 15th last year. The positive for the northern California native is that he's averaged a 3.5 start position.
Ryan NEWMAN 30/1 - He's as consistent as they come at Sonoma with a 12.6 average finish in 14 starts, which is fourth best among active drivers. His best finish was second-place in 2006.
Clint BOWYER 40/1 - Yes, he's got absolute junk under the hood, but his road skills should make up for the deficiency. His 8.6 average finish is tops in the series. He's been a top-10 finisher in seven of his last eight starts, including a 2012 win. He should be a good play in driver match-ups and a low cost gem in fantasy lineups.
Austin DILLON 50/1 - He finished 17th in his first two Cup attempts.
Brad KESLOWSKI 50/1 - His road course results might be the best example of just how different Sonoma and the faster layout at Watkins Glen are. In six Watkins Glen starts he's been runner-up three times and has an 11.3 average finish. In six Sonoma attempts he's averaged a 19.8 finish with a best of 10th-place in 2011. The Westgate is tempting bettors with the high odds because of his poor record, but he's worth putting a few dollars on at 50-to-1 just to see what happens.
Greg BIFFLE 50/1 - This guy is pretty tenacious on the roads. He runs his line and stays out of trouble most of the time, which has allowed him to have a 14.8 average finish in 13 starts, the same average race favorite Kurt Busch has. He's a good choice to roll with in driver match-ups.
Ryan BLANEY 50/1 - Six top-10s in 15 starts this season would be a huge deal for a rookie if Chase Elliott wasn't setting the standard so high. He makes his Cup debut on a road course, but fared well last season in the Xfinity Series with a runner-up at Elkhart Lake's road circuit.
Matt KENSETH 50/1 - Not his favorite type of racing as evident by no top-fives in 16 Sonoma starts. His best finish was eighth-place in 2008.
Denny HAMLIN 50/1 - The first win in his NASCAR career came in 2006 on the road course at Mexico City in the Xfinity Series. He was then runner-up at Watkins Glen in the 2007 Cup race and then fifth at Sonoma in 2009. His 18th-place finish at Sonoma last year was his best road course finish since then. To be fair, he's had several good recent runs at Sonoma but always seems to get caught up in someone else's mess.
Paul MENARD 60/1 - No top-10s in 12 starts with a 22.8 average finish.
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1 - In three starts his best finish was 18th in 2013. He was 20th in 2014 and 34th last year.
Trevor BAYNE 100/1 - He was 22nd in his first Sonoma start last season.
Chris BUESCHER 100/1 - He was 37th in his first Sonoma start last season. He won a road race for Jack Roush at the Mid-Ohio course in 2014 while driving in the Xfinity Series. In 2013 he won an ARCA race at Elkhart Lake. He knows his way around the right turns very well.
Aric ALMIROLA 300/1 - Had a career-best 14th last year in his fifth start.
Casey MEARS 300/1 - In 12 starts, he's averaged a 20.3 finish with a best of fifth in 2008.
Danica PATRICK 300/1 - She should be better than her 23.7 average shows in three starts. She's raced on the roads in Europe, finished second at Belle Isle in 2007 while in the IndyCar Series and led 20 laps at Montreal in a gritty 2012 Xfinity Series performance.
FIELD 100/1 - There's no Boris Said or Ron Fellows participating this year, leaving Canadian Patrick Carpentier as the lone big name road course ringer. The fun thing about watching Carpentier, who won five times in CART — back-to-back at Laguna Seca (2003-04) — is that he doesn't take any guff from the stock car stars. In fact, he actually creates issues with aggressive driving. He'll be piloting the No. 32 this week and will be entertaining, however, in 40 Cup starts dating back to 2007, he's never had a top-10 finish.
He did finish 11th at Sonoma in his last start there in 2009. The odds aren't high enough to be tempted with Carpentier. The better bet instead of this option would be Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne or Brad Keselowski.
|
|
|
|
Post by Gooba on Jun 27, 2016 5:16:10 GMT -5
Toyota/Save Mart 350 results
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Race -- Toyota/Save Mart 350
Sonoma Raceway
Sonoma, California
Sunday, June 26, 2016
1. (10) Tony Stewart, Chevrolet, 110.
2. (6) Denny Hamlin, Toyota, 110.
3. (7) Joey Logano, Ford, 110.
4. (1) Carl Edwards, Toyota, 110.
5. (3) Martin Truex Jr, Toyota, 110.
6. (25) Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet, 110.
7. (8) Kyle Busch, Toyota, 110.
8. (17) Ryan Newman, Chevrolet, 110.
9. (19) Kasey Kahne, Chevrolet, 110.
10. (4) Kurt Busch, Chevrolet, 110.
11. (13) Dale Earnhardt Jr, Chevrolet, 110.
12. (5) Kyle Larson, Chevrolet, 110.
13. (15) Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet, 110.
14. (2) AJ Allmendinger, Chevrolet, 110.
15. (12) Brad Keselowski, Ford, 110.
16. (9) Paul Menard, Chevrolet, 110.
17. (21) Jamie McMurray, Chevrolet, 110.
18. (32) Greg Biffle, Ford, 110.
19. (11) Danica Patrick, Chevrolet, 110.
20. (23) Matt Kenseth, Toyota, 110.
21. (16) Chase Elliott #, Chevrolet, 110.
22. (24) Austin Dillon, Chevrolet, 110.
23. (26) * Ryan Blaney #, Ford, 110.
24. (14) Casey Mears, Chevrolet, 110.
25. (28) Trevor Bayne, Ford, 110.
26. (27) Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Ford, 110.
27. (29) Aric Almirola, Ford, 110.
28. (31) Regan Smith, Chevrolet, 110.
29. (37) Landon Cassill, Ford, 110.
30. (36) Chris Buescher, Ford, 110.
31. (33) Matt DiBenedetto, Toyota, 110.
32. (30) David Ragan, Toyota, 110.
33. (22) Brian Scott #, Ford, 110.
34. (35) * Cole Whitt, Toyota, 110.
35. (38) * Dylan Lupton(i), Toyota, 110.
36. (40) Michael Annett, Chevrolet, 109.
37. (34) Patrick Carpentier, Ford, 108.
38. (39) * Josh Wise, Chevrolet, Engine, 97.
39. (20) Michael McDowell, Chevrolet, Rear Gear, 91.
40. (18) Clint Bowyer, Chevrolet, Electrical, 5.
Average Speed of Race Winner: 80.966 mph.
Time of Race: 02 Hrs, 42 Mins, 13 Secs. Margin of Victory: 0.625 Seconds.
Caution Flags: 4 for 10 laps.
Lead Changes: 12 among 8 drivers.
Lap Leaders: C. Edwards 1-8; A. Allmendinger 9-24; P. Menard 25-27; K. Harvick 28-30; C. Edwards 31-46; A. Allmendinger 47; Kyle Busch 48-49; D. Hamlin 50-70; A. Allmendinger 71-72; D. Patrick 73-75; D. Hamlin 76-87; A. Allmendinger 88; T. Stewart 89-110.
Leaders Summary (Driver, Times Lead, Laps Led): D. Hamlin 2 times for 33 laps; C. Edwards 2 times for 24 laps; T. Stewart 1 time for 22 laps; A. Allmendinger 4 times for 20 laps; D. Patrick 1 time for 3 laps; P. Menard 1 time for 3 laps; K. Harvick 1 time for 3 laps; Kyle Busch 1 time for 2 laps.
Top 16 in Points: K. Harvick -- 562; Kurt Busch -- 527; C. Edwards -- 510; B. Keselowski -- 506; J. Logano -- 493; C. Elliott # -- 473; J. Johnson -- 469; M. Truex Jr -- 469; Kyle Busch -- 452; M. Kenseth -- 430; D. Hamlin -- 421; D. Earnhardt Jr -- 413; R. Newman -- 402; A. Dillon -- 400; J. Mcmurray -- 398; K. Kahne -- 385
|
|
