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Post by Gooba on Jun 24, 2016 5:58:52 GMT -5
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
Hottest team: Astros (8-2 last 10)
Houston is catching fire at the right time, as the Astros pulled above the .500 mark after sweeping the Angels at home. The Astros have won five straight games, while winning three of their past four contests away from Minute Maid Park. Houston heads to Kansas City for an ALDS rematch with the Royals, as Dallas Keuchel takes the mound in the series opener. Last season’s Cy Young winner has stumbled to a 2-6 record on the highway to go along with a 5.91 ERA, while losing at Kauffman Stadium in a 5-1 defeat last July.
Coldest team: Mariners (2-9 last 11)
Seattle returns home following a dreadful road trip, capped off by a three-game sweep at the hands of Detroit. The Mariners limped to a 2-8 record on its trip through Tampa Bay, Boston, and Detroit, while its pitching staff is in ruins due to numerous injuries. Seattle has dropped 15 of its past 20 games overall, including a 1-3 mark in its previous four home contests as the M’s head back to Safeco Field for an interleague series with the streaking Cardinals.
Hottest pitcher: Danny Salazar, Indians (8-3, 2.23 ERA)
Cleveland has owned Detroit this season by winning each of the first six matchups with its division rival. Salazar has yet to face the Tigers this season, but the Cleveland right-hander is riding a four-game winning streak. In his last four victories, the Tribe’s offense has scored 38 runs as three of those wins came at home. The road has been a different story for Salazar, as the Indians are 1-4 in his past five away outings, while not lasting past the fifth inning in three of those starts.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Rays (3-4, 4.90 ERA)
Tampa Bay has fallen apart of late by dropping seven straight games, including getting swept by San Francisco and Cleveland. Moore has won just two of his past 10 starts for Tampa Bay, in spite of tossing at least six innings in each of his last three appearances. Tampa Bay owns an 0-5 mark in Moore’s last five starts away from Tropicana Field, while the southpaw makes his first start at Camden Yards since 2013 when the Rays travel to Baltimore on Friday.
Biggest UNDER run: Braves (6-0 last six)
Atlanta continued its dominance of New York by rallying past the Mets on Thursday, 4-3. Not only did the Braves beat the Mets for the fourth time in eight days, but Atlanta also cashed its sixth consecutive ‘under.’ Atlanta’s pitching staff has been stellar recently by allowing three runs or less in seven straight games, while posting an impressive 7-1 record in the past eight contests overall. Aaron Blair has cashed the ‘under’ in three of his four June starts for Atlanta, which includes a 4-3 victory at Citi Field last Saturday.
Biggest OVER run: Yankees (5-0 last five)
The Twins have racked up the second-most ‘overs’ in baseball as they travel to New York to begin a three-game set with the Yankees. New York is riding a five-game ‘over’ streak after a pair of high-scoring contests with Colorado, which included a 9-8 walk-off victory on Wednesday. The Yankees and Twins played to three ‘overs’ in their four-game set at Target Field last weekend, while New York has allowed at least six runs in each of its past four contests overall.
Matchup to watch: Red Sox vs. Rangers
Boston avoided a four-game sweep by Chicago with an extra-innings triumph on Thursday as the Red Sox venture to the Lone Star State to face the Rangers. Texas has won 10 of its past 12 games to remain atop the AL West standings, while coming off a home split against Cincinnati. David Price takes the mound in the series opener for Boston, as the southpaw snapped a three-start losing streak by tossing eight innings in a 2-1 victory against Seattle in his past outing. Price hasn’t received much run support recently, as the Red Sox scored two runs or less in each of his past four starts, while cashing the ‘under’ in each of those appearances. Texas won three of four home meetings from Boston last season, as Nick Martinez makes his second start of the season for the Rangers.
Betcha didn’t know: The Nationals and Brewers begin a weekend series at Miller Park as Max Scherzer takes the ball for Washington. Scherzer struck out 16 and allowed one hit in a complete-game shutout of the Brewers the last time he faced them last June. The Nationals lost Scherzer’s last start at San Diego in spite of him striking out 10 batters in six innings, as Washington has won four straight starts by the former Cy Young winner after they dropped his last outing.
Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-225) vs. Twins
Biggest public underdog: Padres (+110) at Reds
Biggest line move: Orioles (-125 to -135) vs. Blue Jays
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Post by Gooba on Jun 24, 2016 5:59:24 GMT -5
Five to Follow MLB Betting: Friday, June 24, 2016, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
I don't like leading this story with the same team two days in a row, but you have to go where the news is. And again concerning injuries, it's with the Mets. Wednesday was nearly a title-ending disaster for the defending NL champions. Both Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes, the team's best pitcher and hitter, respectively, left that night's game vs. the Royals with injury concerns. It appears neither is serious, however. Syndergaard had some right elbow issues, and that's always scary -- especially as this became the second time this season the Mets looked at that elbow. An MRI found no damage on Wednesday. "Thor" should avoid the DL but might miss a start. Cespedes, meanwhile, injured his wrist in the game, but it has been diagnosed as only a mild sprain so he should avoid the DL. Cespedes is likely to miss a few games.
Rays at Orioles (-127, 9)
Baltimore will get back third baseman Manny Machado, a top AL MVP candidate, from his four-game suspension for this one. He was suspended for his role in that brawl with the Royals a few weeks ago. Machado had the longest consecutive games streak in MLB before sitting. So his return likely isn't pleasant news for Rays lefty starter Matt Moore (3-4, 4.90). He has been very good his past two starts in allowing two combined runs and eight hits over 13 innings with 15 strikeouts. In May, Moore had an ugly 7.36 ERA in five starts. Moore lost to Baltimore at Tropicana Field on April 27, allowing three runs over seven innings. Machado is 3-for-19 career off him with two extra-base hits. Adam Jones hits .407 off Jones with two homers and seven RBIs in 27 at-bats. The O's go with Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 6.26). He returned from nearly two months on the DL on Saturday vs. Toronto and allowed two runs in five innings while walking four. The Rays' Logan Morrison is 1-for-19 career off him. Corey Dickerson is 2-for-3 with two RBIs.
Key trends: The Rays are 0-5 in Moore's past five on the road. The Orioles are 2-5 in their past seven against a lefty. The "over/under" is 6-2-1 in Moore's past nine. Tampa is 0-4 in Moore's past four vs. Baltimore.
Early lean: Rays and over.
Indians at Tigers (-105, 8)
Good pitching matchup here in the series opener -- the Tigers are 0-6 vs. Cleveland this year. The Tribe go with Danny Salazar (8-3, 2.23). He beat the White Sox last time out, allowing two runs and five hits in 6.2 innings. It was Salazar's fourth straight win, and he hasn't allowed more than two earned or six hits in any of them. If the guy didn't walk so many (second in AL with 38), he might lead the league in WHIP. Last year, Salazar was 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA in five starts against the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera is 9-for-26 off him with two homers and 10 strikeouts. Victor Martinez hits .280 with a homer off him in 25 at-bats. The Tigers counter with Jordan Zimmermann (9-3, 3.24). He took a no-decision last time out, allowing one run and four hits in Kansas City. Zimmermann doesn't have much history with the Indians. Jason Kipnis is 2-for-2 against him. Carlos Santana is 1-for-3 with a homer.
Key trends: The Indians are 11-1 in Salazar's past 12 on Friday. The Tigers are 5-2 in Zimmermann's past seven at home. The under is 8-1-2 in Salazar's past 11 on the road.
Early lean: Indians and under.
Dodgers at Pirates (-116, 8.5)
Game will have live betting at sportsbooks with it televised by the MLB Network. I could absolutely see these teams square off in the NL wild-card game, although the Pirates don't look like a playoff team at the moment. The Dodgers are likely to go with Japanese rookie Kenta Maeda (6-4, 2.64). He beat the Brewers on Sunday, allowing one run and six hits over 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts. Maeda has now held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five straight starts. This will be his first look at Pittsburgh. It's possible the Dodgers use a spot starter here in place of Mike Bolsinger, who was sent down earlier this week. The team could decide to give Maeda an extra day of rest. The Bucs counter with their top pitching prospect, Jameson Taillon (1-1, 3.50). He had quality starts in his first two outings but not Sunday at the Cubs, allowing four runs and eight hits (three homers) over four innings. This will be his first look at the Dodgers.
Key trends: The Dodgers are 6-13 in their past 19 series openers. The under is 6-1 in their past seven in Game 1 of a series. The Dodgers are 0-5 in their past five in Pittsburgh.
Early lean: Pirates and under.
Red Sox at Rangers (+153, 9)
I could absolutely see these teams square off in the ALDS or ALCS. Texas is running away with the AL West, while the Red Sox are battling the Orioles for the AL East lead. The Sox go with lefty ace David Price (8-4, 4.24). He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight outings. Price beat the Mariners on Sunday in allowing one run in eight innings with seven strikeouts. Adrian Beltre has faced him more than any Ranger, going 10-for-33 with two homers and six RBIs. Prince Fielder probably gets the night off as he's only 2-for-12 vs. Price and doesn't hit lefties well. Texas is expected to start Nick Martinez (1-1, 5.14). He has made three appearances total this season and one start. That was Saturday in St. Louis and he allowed three runs in 4.1 innings. Boston's Mookie Betts is 2-for-4 with an RBI career against him. Dustin Pedroia is 3-for-4. Hanley Ramirez is 2-for-3 with a homer.
Key trends: The Red Sox are 5-2 in Price's past seven on four days of rest. The Rangers are 2-10 in Martinez's past 12 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Price's past five.
Early lean: Red Sox and over.
Astros at Royals (+106, 8.5)
The last time Houston visited Kansas City, Johnny Cueto dominated the Astros in the clinching Game 5 of the 2015 ALDS -- the Astros should have ended the series in Game 4 at home, blowing a four-run eighth-inning lead. Lefty and reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel (3-9, 5.32) goes in the opener for Houston. He hasn't won since May 28 but does come off a quality start vs. Cincinnati, allowing two runs and five hits in seven innings. Keuchel beat the Royals in Game 3 of the ALDS with a very good start, but he allowed three runs in one inning of relief in Game 5 to blow it open. Lorenzo Cain is 5-for-12 career off him in the regular season with a homer. Kansas City throws Edinson Volquez (7-6, 4.12). He allowed five runs and eight hits over 6.1 innings Saturday vs. Detroit but got the win. Volquez lost to Houston in Game 3 of the ALDS. Carlos Gomez is 9-for-31 career off him with three solo homers.
Key trends: The Astros are 2-6 in Keuchel's past eight on the road. The Royals are 4-1 in Volquez's past five during Game 1 of a series. The under is 4-1 in Keuchel's past five. The under is 9-3-1 in Volquez's past 13 at home.
Early lean: Royals and under.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 24, 2016 5:59:48 GMT -5
'Twins 8-24 in an opposing park'
Minnesota Twins at NY Yankees June 24, 7:05 EST
Minnesota Twins have a tough road ahead when they visit the New York Yankees Friday. Twins 8-24 in an opposing park are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. on team with a losing record. Additionally, Twins have lost 8 of their last 9 vs Yankees, 12 of the past 16 meetings including 0-3 when Yankees hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka
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Post by Gooba on Jun 24, 2016 6:00:19 GMT -5
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Series (June 24-26)
The Rangers and Red Sox square off in a three game series at Globe Life Park in Arlington this weekend. This will be the first meeting of the season between these clubs. Texas held the edge vs Boston last season winning 5 of the 7 matchups, and that includes 3-1 at this venue.
As a team, Texas heads into the weekend one of the hottest teams in baseball. The Rangers reeling off an 8-1 streak have won 16 of their 21 games in June stuffing a whopping +$1182 into betting accounts. Meanwhile, John Farrell's inconsistent troops head into the series a disappointing 7-12 this month costing faithfull backers -$977 at the betting window.
Nick Martinez gets the opening call for Texas. The righthander making his second start of the season is off a no-decision last Saturday at St. Louis allowing 6 hits, 3 runs over 4 1/3 innings. Last season, Rangers lost 5-1 to Red Sox in Martinez's only career start vs Boston with the righty tossing 7 innings of 2 run ball.
Martinez trades pitches with David Price carrying an 8-4 record, 4.24 ERA to the hill. The hard-luck southpaw turning in four consecutive quality starts has only 1 win, 3 losses for his efforts thanks in large part to Red Sox providing just 7 total runs of support over those four games. Price facing Rangers for the first time since joining Boston is 3-8 life-time vs Texas in 15 starts for Toronto/Tampa Bay.
In Game 2 on Saturday, the pitching matchup features A.J. Griffin for the Rangers, Steven Wright for Red Sox. Griffin returning off the disabled list is 3-0 with a 2.94 in six starts this season and carries a 3-1 team start recors vs Red Sox earned while with the A’s. Wright off a 9 inning, 1 run gem tagged with a no-decision in a Red Sox loss remains undefeated in six starts allowing 2 or fewer runs in five of those starts. Wright lost his only career start in Texas last year giving up three hits, three runs, two homers over 5 2/3 innings.
And in Sunday’s finale, it's Martin Perez matching pitches with Clay Buchholz. In his last outing, Perez recorded a no-decision snapping a five game win streak but Rangers prevailed marking six straight wins handing the ball to their lefty. Perez is 1-1 in three career starts vs Boston (1-2 TSR) but hasn't faced Red Sox since 2014. Buchholz returning to the rotation Tuesday suffered his third straight loss as a starter. Red Sox have lost 5 of Buchholz's last 6 vs Rangers.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 24, 2016 6:01:08 GMT -5
MLB
Friday's games
National League games
Dodgers @ Pirates
Tepesch is making his first '16 start; he is 9-17, 4.56 in 39 big league starts, 7-2, 3.66 in 14 AAA starts this season.
Taillon is 1-1, 3.50 in his first three MLB starts (over 2-1).
Pirates lost 13 of last 15 games, are 7-5 in home series openers; over is 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Dodgers won eight of last nine games, are 3-9 in road series openers. Under is 17-6 in Dodgers' last 23 games.
Padres @ Reds
Rea is 0-2, 7.18 in his last six starts; six of his last eight starts went over.
Reed allowed four runs in seven IP (92 PT) in his MLB debut.
Padres won four of last five games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games. Cincinnati lost six of last eight games; six of its last eight games went over the total.
Cubs @ Marlins
Hendricks is 3-2, 2.70 in his last five starts; five of his last seven stayed under.
Koehler is 3-0, 2.00 in his last three starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine. .
Cubs lost their last four games; seven of their last ten games stayed under. Miami won seven of its last ten games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.
Mets @ Braves
Matz is 0-2, 4.76 in his last four starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
Blair is 0-1, 6.84 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Mets are 4-7 in their last 11 games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games. Braves won seven of their last eight games; Five of last seven Atlanta home games went over total.
Nationals @ Brewers
Scherzer is 3-0, 1.29 in his last four starts; five of his last six went over.
Davies is 3-0, 1.29 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1).
Nationals lost their last five games, are 8-5 in road series openers. Last three Washington games stayed under. Milwaukee lost seven of its last nine games, is 5-7 in home series openers. Five of last seven Milwaukee home games stayed under.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Bradley is 1-3, 4.43 in his last four starts (over 5-2).
Anderson is 0-1, 2.25 in his first two MLB starts (under 2-0).
Diamondbacks won six of last seven games; nine of their last 11 road games stayed under the total. Colorado won five of last seven home games; three of last five Coors Field games went under.
Phillies @ Giants
Eflin is 0-2, 11.88 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Peavy is 3-1, 1.88 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Phillies are 3-11 in their last 14 road games, 4-8 in road series openers. Seven of their last nine road games went over. San Francisco won 11 of its last 12 games; they're 5-6 in home series openers. Under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 home games.
American League games
Rays @ Orioles
Moore is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine.
Gallardo is 2-1, 6.26 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Rays lost their last seven games; they're 5-7 in road series openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Baltimore is 10-3 in its last 13 home games, 7-6 in home series openers. Over is 6-1-1 in their last eight home series openers.
Twins @ Bronx
Milone is making first start since April 25; he is 0-1, 6.30 in four starts (over 2-2).
Tanaka is 3-2, 2.40 in his last six starts, five of which stayed under.
Twins won three of last four games, are 3-8 in road series openers. Over is 15-2 in last 17 Minnesota games. New York lost three of last four home games, is 6-5 in home series openers. Last five New York games went over the total.
Indians @ Tigers
Salazar is 4-0, 2.05 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. .
Zimmerman is 4-1, 6.16 in his last six starts (over 4-1-1). Detroit is 8-0 in Zimmerman starts if they score 3+ runs for him. .
Indians won their last six games, are 6-6 in road series openers. Under is 6-3 in last nine Cleveland games. Detroit won nine of last 10 home games; they're 6-5 in home series openers. Four of last five Tiger games stayed under the total.
Red Sox @ Rangers
Price is 1-3, 2.61 in his last four starts; his last five outings all stayed under.
Martinez allowed three runs in 4.1 IP (70 PT) in his first '16 start.
Red Sox are 4-7 in last 11 games, 7-4 in road series openers. Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven road games. Texas is 26-8 in its last 34 home games, 8-4 in home series openers. Five of last six Texas home games stayed under the total.
Blue Jays @ White Sox
Sanchez is 3-0, 3.51 in his last four starts (under 9-5).
Rodon is 0-2, 3.93 in his last three starts (under 8-5).
Blue Jays lost three of last four games; they're 9-3 in road series openers. Over is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. Chicago won three of last four games; they're 6-5 in home series openers. Under is 7-5 in their last twelve games.
Astros @ Royals
Keuchel is 0-3, 4.97 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Volquez is 2-2, 5.04 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Astros won seven of last eight games, are 4-8 in road series openers. Under is 12-2 in last 14 Houston games. Kansas City is 16-3 in its last 19 home games, 10-1 in the first game of a home series. Over is 9-3-1 in Royals' last thirteen home games.
A's @ Angels
Surkamp is 0-4, 9.74 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.
Weaver is 2-2, 4.79 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
Angels are 5-12 in their last 17 games; five of last seven LA games stayed under total. Oakland is 7-20 in its last 27 road games; under is 5-1-1 in last seven Oakland games.
Interleague
Cardinals @ Mariners
Martinez is 3-0, 1.29 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
LeBlanc is making his first start for Seattle, his first MLB start since 2014. His career big league record is 21-33, 4.47 in 71 starts. He is 7-2, 1.71 in 14 AAA starts this year.
Cardinals won their last eight road games; they're 5-6 in road series openers. Six of last eight St Louis games stayed under. Seattle lost its last six games; they're 5-6 in home series openers. Five of last six Mariner games stayed under the total. .
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
LA-Pitt-- Tepesch 0-0; Taillon 1-2
SD-Cin-- Rea 7-6; Reed 0-1
Chi-Mia-- Hendricks 6-7; Koehler 6-8
NY-Atl-- Matz 7-5; Blair 2-8
Wsh-Mil-- Scherzer 9-6; Davies 6-6
Az-Col-- Bradley 4-3; Anderson 1-1
Phil-SF-- Eflin 0-2; Peavy 7-7
TB-Balt-- Moore 5-9; Gallardo 3-2
Min-NY-- Milone 2-2; Tanaka 9-5
Clev-Det-- Salazar 8-5; Zimmerman 9-4
Bos-Tex-- Price 9-6; Martinez 1-0
Tor-Chi-- Sanchez 9-5; Rodon 3-10
Hst-KC-- Keuchel 5-10; Volquez 9-6
A's-LA-- Surkamp 3-5; Weaver 6-8
StL-Sea-- Martinez 7-6; LeBlanc 0-0
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
LA-Pitt-- Tepesch 0-0; Taillon 1-3
SD-Cin-- Rea 8-13; Reed 1-1
Chi-Mia-- Hendricks 3-13; Koehler 4-14
NY-Atl-- Matz 2-12; Blair 5-10
Wsh-Mil-- Scherzer 6-15; Davies 4-12
Az-Col-- Bradley 2-7; Anderson 0-2
Phil-SF-- Eflin 1-2; Peavy 4-14
TB-Balt-- Moore 3-14; Gallardo 3-5
Min-NY-- Milone 0-4; Tanaka 2-13
Clev-Det-- Salazar 1-13; Zimmerman 3-13
Bos-Tex-- Price 5-15; Martinez 0-1
Tor-Chi-- Sanchez 3-14; Rodon 5-13
Hst-KC-- Keuchel 4-15; Volquez 3-15
A's-LA-- Surkamp 3-8; Weaver 5-14
StL-Sea-- Martinez 1-13; LeBlanc 0-0
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Post by Gooba on Jun 24, 2016 6:01:35 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing
100-59 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.9% | 41.3 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 71-32 (+30.4 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.7)
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