NFL Wildcard Weekend opens with three of four road favs

BLACK MONDAY LOOMS IN NFL

The day after the regular season concludes has earned the title "Black Monday" because so many coaches have had the axe fall upon them on that very day over the years. This season should be no different, as sources say up to a dozen NFL mentors could be in trouble when the regular season concludes.

A couple of teams, however, beat "Black Monday" to the punch when announcing their intentions before this weekend's final regular-season games. Those include the Eagles, whose owner Jeffrey Lurie gave HC Chip Kelly his pink slip on Tuesday, and the Jags, taking an opposite stance when owner Shad Khan announced that under-fire HC Gus Bradley would return in 2016.

In Kelly's case, season-long disappointment had reached untenable levels in recent home losses to the Cardinals and Redskins that knocked the Birds out of the playoff picture, with each of those teams clinching their division titles on the Eagles' turf! Kelly, who in the offseason had won an organizational struggle with Howie Roseman for control of the team's personnel decisions, would swing and miss on most of his many roster moves and free-agent signings. Pressure mounted throughout the regular season to the point where Lurie had decided he was not going to let Kelly keep both a personnel and coaching role into the future.

Sources say that when Kelly balked at the idea of relinquishing any power earlier this week, Lurie quickly decided to cut the cord. Also out in Philly is Ed Marynowitz, whom Kelly had enlisted to run the Eagles' personnel department. Ex-Bills and Steelers GM Tom Donahoe was named the new senior director of player personnel, but it is expected that none other than Roseman will re-emerge in a supremo role. Lurie also reportedly wanted to get a head start at finding a replacement for Kelly, though he cannot contact NFL assistants until midnight on Sunday after the regular season concludes.

As for Jacksonville, Bradley entered this season (his third) not with a must-win edict, but rather an improve-or-else order from owner Khan, who has pulled a quick trigger before with his coaches in other sports (running three managers out in his first season as owner of EPL Fulham) and was said to be growing a bit impatient. Though the Jags were officially eliminated from the playoff picture last week, their 5-10 mark does qualify as progress from last year's 3-13 and has bought Bradley, who reportedly has the support of his players, another season. Expect 2016 to be a "playoffs or bust" campaign for Bradley, though unlike Kelly, Bradley at least knows where he will be working next season.

Elsewhere there are plenty of "Black Monday"-related storylines to note. Before the regular season concludes and all heck breaks loose next Monday, a quick review is in order of those teams we believe have coaching situations possibly "in play" beginning next week.

Rex Ryan, Buffalo...Though not near the top of the list, there are some sources who believe Ryan might be in a bit of trouble after a disappointing debut season with the Bills. In his usual blustery manner, Ryan predicted a playoff berth for his new team, but nobody expected one of the NFL's best defenses to tail off dramatically under Ryan, whose schemes and alignments proved a poor fit for the personnel as Buffalo's defensive numbers would drop sharply this season. One of Ryan's loudest critics has been DE Mario Williams, almost certain to be released at the end of the season, though the fact there is apparent internal dismay in the clubhouse is a red flag for Ryan, whose Jets teams, especially in his earlier years in New York, were unfailingly supportive of their coach. New owners Terry and Kim Pegula are apparently dismayed at developments and the fact the team regressed from last season under Doug Marrone, as Ryan was not hired to oversee a rebuilding project...he was expected to win right off the bat. And while Ryan's early ouster looms as unlikely, Rexy can sure help his cause greatly by beating his old employer Jets this weekend to not only keep them out of the playoffs but also to get the Bills to .500. Ryan's chances to survive: 99%. (Note: Bills announced Thursday that Ryan would return in 2016.)

Mike Pettine, Cleveland...The Brownies entered the final weekend with a 3-17 mark over their last 20 games and with no indication that things are going to be improving anytime soon. Worse for Pettine is that his supposed defensive expertise has not translated to his team, which ranks near the bottom of NFL stats. Pettine has not been helped by the circus that seems to follow second-year Johnny Manziel, who has hardly looked like a franchise QB and now might have another issue to deal with (a new and apparently damning video during Christmas week) before the regular-season finale vs. the Steelers. Owner Jimmy Haslam is notoriously impatient, though after so much turnover in recent years, sources say Haslam might be a bit reluctant to hit the eject button on both Pettine and GM Ray Farmer. If one has to go, most believe it would be Farmer, though there is still a very good chance that Haslam cleans house again and dismisses them both. Pettine's chances to survive: 30%

Jason Garrett, Dallas...The new name to pop up on the list over the past week, as sources say Jerry Jones is not going to automatically give Garrett a mulligan for the Cowboys' 2015 collapse in the wake of QB Tony Romo's injuries. Jones has hinted as much in recent interviews, and sources say ol' Jer became especially incensed in recent weeks when watching his former backup, the released Brandon Weeden, who could not win a game as starter in relief of Romo in the first half of the season, steer the Texans to two important December wins. And that Houston would win games with four different QBs and put itself in position to steal the AFC South in a down year for the division, much as this season was in the NFC East. Of course, Jones can blame himself for not better fortifying the Dallas QB situation behind Romo, but now he might be changing his mind about Garrett, long Jones' fair-haired boy, but suddenly, and apparently quickly, falling out of favor. Sources say the situation to watch might be with New Orleans' Sean Payton, who once worked in Dallas and could be high on Jones' list. A Garrett dismissal (which would reportedly cost the Cowboys more than $20 million in a buy-out) might have to come in conjunction with being able to pry Payton away from the Saints. That scenario is a lot less far-fetched now than it seemed a month ago. Garrett's chances to survive: 55%.

Jim Caldwell, Detroit..One month ago we wouldn't have given Caldwell much, if any, chance to survive. Now there appears to be a scenario that might grant Caldwell a reprieve, based mostly upon the Lions' late-season rally that has seen them win 5 of 7 and come oh-so-close to 6 of 7 had they not allowed the Packers to complete a Hail Mary on the final play of the Dec. 3 game at Ford Field. Remember, 90-year-old franchise matriarch Martha Ford pushed her son Bill out of the way not long ago and began to wield the axe indiscriminately at midseason in what appeared to be stage one of a major housecleaning, jettisoning GM Martin Mayhew and team prexy Tom Lewand. Meanwhile, Caldwell also changed staff at about the same time, including the promotion of Jim Bob Cooter to offensive coordinator, which has resulted in an upgrade of Matthew Stafford's numbers. Caldwell is hardly out of the woods yet, but Mrs. Ford is said to be fond of him, and another win on Sunday at Chicago would get the Lions to 7-9, which looked very unlikely when the team was sitting at 1-7 at midseason. Caldwell's fate will still likely be determined by the new GM hire, supposedly coming soon. For that reason, Caldwell's status will likely not be determined until sometime after Black Monday. Caldwell's chances to survive: 40%.

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis...Pagano was on the hot seat from the outset this season after rejecting a series of one-year contract extensions and betting on himself to earn a multi-year deal at the conclusion of the campaign. Though Pagano could not have predicted QB Andrew Luck's injury woes, the former Stanford star was not having a vintage season before he was KO'd, and Pagano's game management came under question during an ominously slow start to the campaign. Indy has hung in there with backup QBs Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst (and perhaps the just-signed Josh Freeman for this coming weekend), but if the Colts miss the playoffs, owner Jim Irsay is likely to make Pagano the scapegoat, even after playoff appearances his first three years on the job. Pagano's chances to survive: 25%.

Dan Campbell, Miami...Though one can never tell what owner Stephen Ross might do after granting Joe Philbin an ill-advised extra season at the end of 2014 and unwittingly setting in motion the sequence of events (including Philbin's dismissal after four games) that doomed 2015 in Miami, most sources believe interim HC Campbell, only 4-7 since taking over (and that 4-7 includes two impressive wins out of the chute), is going to be a definite Black Monday casualty. (Some believe Campbell could be invited to stay on staff, but he will almost certainly have his HC title removed.) Miami has been mentioned as one of the possible destinations for Sean Payton, should he leave the Saints. Another situation to watch with the Dolphins is with GM Dennis Hickey, who could be out along with Campbell, and there perhaps could be trouble for football operations director Mike Tannenbaum, though he seems the least likely of the three to be on the chopping block. Campbell's chances to survive: 5%.

Sean Payton, New Orleans...No coach potentially would disrupt the market as Payton, rumored for months to be receptive to a move of address. Payton still has two more years left on his deal with the Saints, so some sort of arrangement would have to be arrived at before he takes another job, but sources say Payton might believe the Saints' window has closed and that the contract situation of vet QB Drew Brees (who is slated to cause a 2016 cap hit of nearly $30 million, which includes his 2016 base plus past salary that was converted to a signing bonus that will count against the 2016 cap) makes a quick rebuild for New Orleans (which needs enormous upgrades defensively) extremely difficult. Payton has been said to be intrigued by the possibilities with the Chargers, but sources also say to keep an eye on the Colts, Dolphins, Titans, all with young QBs as possible high-grade students for Payton, or perhaps the Giants, who might be willing to make a splash, or reuniting with the Cowboys. Evidently, the Saints' recent subpar form over the past two seasons has not diminished the potential market for Payton, who has won just two playoff games since his 2009 team won the Super Bowl. Because Payton, should he leave New Orleans, will be almost certainly doing so on his own accord, we categorize his future prospects not as "survival," but rather chances to move. Payton's chances to move: 50%.

Tom Coughlin, NY Giants...Already on notice earlier this season from co-owner John Mara that a playoff berth was going to be expected, Coughlin's days at MetLife Stadium now seem numbered after a disturbing collapse in the second half of the campaign will keep the G-Men out of the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. Many believe the 69-year-old Coughlin might have been due to retire at the end of this 2015 term regardless, and he could spare team brass the awkwardness of a dismissal by simply announcing his retirement. Though maybe not, as Coughlin has another year on his contract and might not want to walk away without some sort of compensation for 2016. Many believe there is also a good chance that GM Jerry Reese walks the plank as well. Whatever, it seems like all of the goodwill built up from the Giants' magic Super Bowl seasons of 2007 & '11 is about to expire. Coughlin's chances to survive: 15%.

Jeff Fisher, St. Louis...With the Rams making a belated run at .500 and with two victories over the defending NFC champ Seahawks, some believe Fisher might have bought himself another year after looking ready to walk the plank a month ago. Still, the team has not made much progress in Fisher's four seasons, and this appeared to be a year in which there was room to surge in the NFC West with the 49ers dropping off of the map and Seattle regressing. There is also the matter of the franchise's possible relocation to Los Angeles. Working in Fisher's favor might be that he oversaw a similar franchise shift when the Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee in 1997, plus the fact Fisher once starred as a defensive back in college at USC (where secondary mates included Ronnie Lott and Dennis Smith). Working against Fisher in the same scenario might be that owner Stan Kroenke would prefer to start fresh with a new coach and new regime if the franchise indeed relocates. Fisher's chances to survive: 60%.

Mike McCoy, San Diego...The Chargers have continued to play hard for McCoy, but the situation has nonetheless unraveled for the Bolts, sitting at an embarrassing 4-11 heading into the final week, even with QB Philip Rivers posting some of the best numbers of his career. A recent extension for GM Tom Telesco could be seen as a positive development since Telesco hired McCoy, but it's not like the team was offering McCoy the same deal. There is belief that McCoy has support internally, but with a move to Los Angeles potentially looming, anything is possible here, and the Spanos family has been unpredictable with these sorts of matters in the past. McCoy's chances to survive: 45%

Jim Tomsula, San Francisco...Tomsula cannot be solely held to blame for the downturn in 49er fortunes, a decline that can be traced to the club's ownership and front office. Yet Tomsula and his staff (which has come under criticism the entire year in the Bay Area) have not been able to get the team to punch above its weight, as the dramatic downgrade from a Super Bowl contender from as recently as two years ago has been almost breathtaking. The Niners opted to stay in-house and hired loyal solider Tomsula (who had succeeded Jim Harbaugh predecessor Mike Singletary for one game as interim HC at the end of the 2010 season) when they had chances to tab the likes of Adam Gase and Vic Fangio (both now on John Fox's Chicago staff), and some are not ruling out the front office revisiting those mistakes. It is also possible that owner Jed York says goodbye to general manager Trent Baalke instead of Tomsula. Tomsula's chances to survive: 50%.

Mike Mularkey, Tennessee...Mularkey is supposedly well-liked by the Titan organization (itself still in flux since the passing of owner Bud Adams a few years ago), but at 2-6 since relieving Ken Whisenhunt and badly beaten in several losses, there seems little chance that Mularkey sticks around. Of course, the sudden availability of Chip Kelly has the rumor mill whirring in Nashville, as the Titans appear to be a very possible landing spot for Kelly, who would get a chance to coach his old college QB from Oregon, Marcus Mariota, the quintessential fit for the Kelly style of offense that Chip never had in Philadelphia. Mularkey's chances to survive: 5%.

As always, stay tuned.

AFC Wild Card Notes

Saturday, January 9

AFC – Kansas City at Houston - 4:35 p.m. (ABC)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3, 40 ½

Kansas City Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Houston Home Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in the opening week of the season as the Chiefs held off the Texans at NRG Stadium, 27-20 to cash as one-point favorites. Kansas City jumped out to a 27-9 halftime lead and never looked back as quarterback Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns, including two touchdown strikes to tight end Travis Kelce.

Playoff Notes: Houston returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2012 when the Texans were eliminated at New England in the divisional round, 41-28. The Texans have won both of their home playoff games in franchise history, beating Cincinnati in the Wild Card round in 2011 and 2012. Kansas City last appeared in the postseason in 2013, blowing a 28-point lead in a stunning 45-44 defeat at Indianapolis in the Wild Card round. The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since 1993, losing eight straight in the postseason, including three in a row on the road.

Total Notes: Kansas City posted an 8-7-1 record to the ‘over’ this season, including five ‘overs’ away from Arrowhead Stadium. Houston also put together an 8-7-1 ‘over’ mark, even though the Texans went 4-2 to the ‘under’ in the final six contests. The Texans cashed five ‘unders’ at NRG Stadium, while allowing three of their final five opponents at home to six points.

Saturday, January 9

AFC – Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - 8:15 p.m. (CBS)

Opening Line: Steelers -2, 46 ½

Pittsburgh Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Cincinnati Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The road team won each of the two meetings this season, as the Steelers knocked off the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 14 by a 33-20 count. Andy Dalton’s season ended that day as the Bengals’ quarterback broke his right thumb attempting to make a tackle following an interception. Steelers’ running back DeAngelo Williams scored two touchdowns in that victory, but he is listed as questionable for the Wild Card game with a sprained ankle.

Playoff Notes: The Bengals have lost four Wild Card games in each of the past four seasons, although three of those defeats came on the highway. Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh in the 2005 Wild Card round at home, 31-17, as the Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl that season. The Bengals are mired in a long postseason drought, last capturing a playoff win back in 1990. The Steelers are back in the playoffs for the sixth time in Mike Tomlin’s coaching tenure, as Pittsburgh was tripped up at home by Baltimore last season 30-17 in the Wild Card round. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2010, while losing its last road postseason contest at Denver in overtime in 2011.

Total Notes: Cincinnati cashed the ‘under’ nine times this season, including an 8-2 mark to the ‘under’ in the final 10 games. The Steelers began the season at 7-2 to the ‘under’ the first nine games, followed by a 4-2 run to the ‘over’ to finish the season. Pittsburgh compiled a 6-2 mark to the ‘under’ away from Heinz Field, while cashing the ‘over’ in five of the last seven visits to Cincinnati.

StatFox Super Situations

NFL | SEATTLE at MINNESOTA
Play On - Road teams (SEATTLE) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

NFL | KANSAS CITY at HOUSTON
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the money line (HOUSTON) in a game involving two mistake-free teams (<=1.25 turnovers/game committed), after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
84-26 over the last 10 seasons. ( 76.4% | 0.0 units )
10-4 this year. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )

NFL | GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON
Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games
29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

Streaks, Tips, Notes

NFL Betting: Wild-Card Weekend - Jan 9-10, 2016

Sharpen pencils, post season games are among the most difficult to handicap. Oddsmakers have only a few games a week to create a line instead of the usual sixteen, so count on point spreads being pretty tight in these WIN-And-Move-On games.

That's confirmed by our reliable NFL database that tells us over the past five years during Wild Card Weekend 'Favorites' have covered the point spread 10 times, 'Underdogs' got the money 9 times with 1 'Push'. Taking a long-term view, much the same. In ten years,' Favorites' covered the point spread 20 times, 'Underdogs' 19 and 1 'Push'.

Totals are a different story and here we uncover some meaningful trends. The most obvious that jumps out is the tendency for Wild Card games to go 'Under' posted totals. The past 10 years there have been 15 'Over', 24 'Under', 1 'Push' with short-term trends on the same path with 6 'Over', 13 'Under', 1 'Push'.

A final few betting nuggets as it applies to this years Wild Card participants. Since the 2005 campaign, the Chiefs are 0-3 ATS in Wild Card games, the Texans 2-0 ATS. The Steelers are a vig-losing 2-2 ATS, Bengals always seem to find a way to lose in this round posting a putrid 0-6 ATS record. Seahawks have been solid bets at 3-1 ATS, Vikings 0-2 ATS in it's only two appearances since 2005. Packers have a 2-1 ATS record, Redskins are 1-2 ATS.

During the past five years, teams heading into the Wild Card Round off a loss (Packers) are 6-8 ATS including 1-6 ATS when playing in a hostile venue. Team off a two touchdown victory (Steelers, Texans, Seahawks) have been a good choices as they're 7-3 against the betting line.

Playoff experience is worth its weight in NFL betting gold

It’s playoff time! Or, as New England Patriots fans know it, regular season. We say that as a joke, but there’s also an element of truth to it.

Under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the Patriots have made the playoffs the past seven years, and are the most successful football team of the 21st century. Making the playoffs is a familiar feeling and nothing new for the majority of the players this year.

For teams like Minnesota and Washington, however, the last time they made the playoffs was in 2012 – not an eternity ago, but long enough ago where many of their players weren’t on the team/starting during that last playoff appearance.

As these two different types of teams clash this postseason (ones with postseason experience and ones without it) we can try to see if there are any situations football bettors can take advantage of.

Of course, defining “teams with postseason experience” is tricky. For the purposes of this argument, we have defined that as a team that did not make the playoffs last year. That is subject to several flaws: perhaps they acquired via free agency a group of players who had made the playoffs last year, so their core did have some experience.

Or perhaps they made the playoffs two years ago and retained nearly their whole roster. There are definitely soft spots in this classification, but we used it because theoretically a team should have at least some new blood after one season (and it was easy…).

We can first look at all matchups in the Wild Card Round, where one team made the playoffs the year before and the other didn’t. There are 69 such cases, only one of which when the non-experienced team was hosting the game (this makes sense, since if a team doesn’t make the playoffs one season it is unlikely they will win their division the next). In those cases, the team with postseason experience is 36-32 - or 52.89 percent. Not a very large difference from 50 percent.

Of course, as mentioned before, one year does not say everything. Therefore, let us group teams by how many times in the past two years they made the playoffs. The groups’ records against the spread are displayed in the table below.

Times in Postseason Over Last Two Years


Number of Teams


Record ATS

0


63


31 - 31

1


52


22 - 29

2


101


52 - 45

Note that the number of teams is not equal to the sum of teams of won and lost ATS, because there are some teams that pushed.

As we can see, teams that have made the postseason in both the past two years perform better than expected, while teams that only made it once perform worse, and teams who made it zero times are exactly neutral.

To look at this more closely, we can focus on games where one team made it twice in the past two years, and the other team only made it once or twice. There are 85 of these situations, and the team that won twice is 45-38 ATS (54.2 percent). A slightly larger difference, but not huge.

We can do the same thing going back three years:

Times in Postseason Over Last Three Years


Number of Teams


Record ATS

0


46


25 - 21

1


54


23 - 30

2


27


9 - 16

3


89


48 - 38

We can see a weird trend here, but one that is similar to the previous table. The teams with no postseason experience don’t do that badly, while teams that made it all of the previous years do well as well.

But teams somewhere in the middle are performing way worse than expected. In particular, when a team with three postseason appearances in the past three years plays a team with one or two, they are 33-22 ATS (60 percent).

We don’t want to try to fit a story to the data, but it appears that people are undervaluing teams that haven’t made the postseason in a while, and at the same time they’re undervaluing those that have made it every year consecutively. And teams that fall somewhere in the middle are being overvalued.

This trend continues even when you go back four years (teams that made the postseason zero times are 18-15 and teams that made it all four times are 46-34).

Of these two trends, we’re more confident in the one of betting on a team that has a long streak of making the postseason because as we go back more and more years, the effect seems to be widening, while in the other case it is fluctuating. Also, intuitively it just makes more sense: teams that have a long streak of making the postseason typically do better than those that don’t.

For this year, the table below shows the streak of postseason appearances that each team playing in a Wild Card game brings in:

Team


Postseason Streak

Cincinnati


4

Houston


0

Pittsburgh


1

Kansas City


0

Green Bay


6

Minnesota


0

Seattle


3

Washington


0

Based on this, it appears like Green Bay, Cincinnati, and Seattle seem the best bets during the Wild Card weekend – according to this trend.

One other strange trend we noticed when looking through the data: theoretically, a team covering the spread and going Over/Under should be independent of each other.

Yet in the Wild Card Round, when the home team loses against the spread, the game goes Over the total only 36.9 percent of the time. There seems to be a trend that when the home team loses, it tends to be a low-scoring game, for whatever reason. Just something to keep an eye on.