SAS Game Day Sunday

Let the home plate umpire be your guide when wagering on baseball

On April 10, 2016 at the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park, southpaw Scott Kazmir of the Los Angeles Dodgers and World Series champion Johnny Cueto of the San Francisco Giants took the mound for their respective clubs in an N.L. West blood feud that featured an over/under of 7.5 runs.

The 32-year-old Kazmir, who had posted an incendiary 2.38 ERA in 18 starts with the Oakland Athletics last summer before being shipped to Houston at the trade deadline, entered his April 10 showdown against Cueto with a 1-0 record thanks to a 3-0 victory in San Diego just five days prior in which the lefty blanked the Padres for six innings while surrendering only one hit.


Cueto, who signed a six-year, $130 million deal with San Francisco last December, also entered that April 10 matchup with a 1-0 record due to a brilliant Orange & Black debut in Milwaukee in which he limited the Brewers to just one run on six hits over seven solid innings of work en route to a 2-1 victory.

So the stage has been set: Two talented and accomplished starting pitchers taking the mound on a Sunday afternoon in a ballpark that allowed fewer home runs than any other venue in baseball last season with a Las Vegas over/under of 7.5. This sort of feels like a game in which we might lean to the under, doesn’t it?

Hopefully all of you passed on that instinct because over bettors were celebrating a win after just three innings of baseball in which Kazmir and Cueto both allowed five runs to cross home plate in what eventually became a wild 9-6 victory for the Giants.

So how exactly did two of the game’s more accomplished starting pitchers find themselves so bruised and battered in the box score so quickly while playing at AT&T Park?

There are several reasons, actually, for what went down on April 10 ranging from Cueto’s potential nerves in his home debut for the Giants to Kazmir’s issues with consistency to two talented and highly productive lineups.

But the one reason that tends to slip between the cracks when trying to explain an anomaly game such as this one has to do with the man in the mask behind home plate.

Yes, I’m talking about the umpire.

When betting on baseball, whether it be the side, run line or total, it is essential to research and evaluate the man tasked with differentiating balls and strikes. On April 10 in San Francisco, that man was Alan Porter, who was behind the plate for 29 games during the 2015 Major League Baseball season. And in those 29 games, the over went 15-11-3 with an average of 8.79 runs scored per contest. But for those of you who are willing to go the extra mile, your research would have indicated that in games featuring an over/under of exactly 7.5 runs during the 2015 season with Porter behind the plate, the over went 6-3.

So far during the 2016 campaign, the over is 9-5 with an average of 9.86 total runs scored per game with Porter behind the plate.

This isn’t to suggest that Porter’s presence on April 10 was the sole reason the over hit in such immediate fashion, but it does help to partially explain why a matchup between Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir at AT&T Park could go from being viewed as a pitcher’s duel to a shootout in such a short span of time. More importantly, however, it helps to reinforce the point of how essential it is to study the umpire assignments before placing each and every MLB bet you consider.

Entering Saturday’s slate of action, with the 2016 MLB regular season approximately 46% complete, here’s a breakdown of some key umpire date that will prove useful in your baseball handicapping:

TOP FIVE OVER UMPIRES

Brian Gorman: 7-2 (.778), 9.8 runs per game
Jerry Meals: 10-3 (.769), 10.7 runs per game
Bill Welke: 10-3 (.769), 9.4 runs per game
Bill Miller: 12-4 (.750), 9.3 runs per game
Jerry Layne: 8-3 (.727), 9.3 runs per game

TOP FIVE UNDER UMPIRES

Eric Cooper: 9-2 (.818), 5.9 runs per game
Mark Ripperger: 11-3 (.786), 5.6 runs per game
Todd Tichenor: 10-3 (.769), 6.0 runs per game
D.J. Reyburn: 8-3 (.727), 5.7 runs per game
Larry Vanover: 8-3 (.727), 7.9 runs per game

TOP FIVE HOME UMPIRES

Bill Welke: 11-2 (.846), 9.4 runs per game
Clint Fagan: 10-2 (.833), 11.7 runs per game
Fieldin Culbreth: 10-3 (.769), 8.8 runs per game
Ted Barrett: 12-4 (.750), 10.1 runs per game
Bill Miller: 12-4 (.750), 9.3 runs per game

TOP FIVE ROAD UMPIRES

Adam Hamari: 11-2 (.846), 9.0 runs per game
Tom Hallion: 10-3 (.769), 7.9 runs per game
Jim Reynolds: 10-3 (.769), 9.1 runs per game
Ryan Blakney: 10-4 (.714), 9.1 runs per game
Andy Fletcher: 9-5 (.642), 9.1 runs per game

MLB

Sunday's games

National League games

Dodgers @ Pirates
Kershaw is 9-0, 1.15 in his last 10 starts; under is 7-0-1 in his last eight.

Kuhl is making MLB debut; he was 6-2, 2.58 in 14 AAA starts this year. .

Pirates lost 13 of last 17 games; over is 13-6 in their last 19 home games. Dodgers won eight of last 11 games; under is 18-7 in Dodgers' last 25 games.

Padres @ Reds
Perdomo is 1-1, 8.82 in four starts, which all went over the total. .

DeSclafani is 1-0, 4.02 in three starts (over 2-1).

Padres won six of last seven games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 road games. Cincinnati lost eight of last ten games; seven of its last ten games went over the total.

Cubs @ Marlins
Hammel is 0-2, 3.93 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Fernandez is 6-1, 1.17 in his last eight starts; seven of his last nine stayed under.

Cubs lost five of last six games; three of last four road games went over. Miami won eight of its last 12 games; under is 10-5 in their last 15 home games.

Mets @ Braves
Colon is 3-0, 218 in his last six starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven.

Norris is 1-0, 3.12 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Mets are 6-7 in their last 13 games; under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. Braves won seven of their last ten games; six of last nine Atlanta home games went over total.

Nationals @ Brewers
Roark is 2-1, 3.10 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.

Nelson is 0-3, 8.50 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-2 in his last eight.

Nationals lost their last seven games; over is 12-4 in last 16 Washington away games. Milwaukee lost eight of its last 11 games; three of last four Milwaukee home games went over the total.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Corbin is 2-1, 3.81 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Bettis is 2-3, 9.21 in his last six starts; six of his last nine went over.

Diamondbacks won seven of last nine games; nine of their last 13 road games stayed under the total. Colorado lost three of last four games; its last five games went over.

Phillies @ Giants
Nola is 0-3, 18.62 in his last three starts; six of his last seven went over.

Cueto is 7-0, 1.34 in his last nine starts (under 6-3).

Phillies are 4-12 in their last 15 road games; eight of their last 11 road games went over. San Francisco won 12 of its last 14 games; three of its last five games went over.


American League games

Rays @ Orioles
Smyly is 0-3, 6.69 in his last six starts; eight of his last nine went over.

Wilson is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; three of his last four went over.

Rays lost their last ten games; under is 10-5 in their last 15 games. Baltimore is 13-3 in its last 16 home games; four of their last six games stayed under.

Twins @ Bronx
Duffey is 0-3, 10.57 in his last five starts; six of his last seven went over.

Eovaldi is 0-2, 9.00 in his last four starts, which all went over.

Twins lost seven of last eight road games; over is 15-4 in last 19 Minnesota games. New York won its last three games; five of their last seven games went over.

Indians @ Tigers
Tomlin is 1-0, 2.70 in his last four starts; over is 8-2-1 in last 11.

Verlander is 3-0, 2.93 in his last four starts; five of his last six stayed under. .

Indians won their last eight games; under is 7-4 in last 11 Cleveland games. Detroit won nine of last 12 home games; five of last seven Tiger games stayed under the total.

Red Sox @ Rangers
Buchholz is 0-3, 7.36 in his last four starts (over 6-5).

Perez is 5-0, 3.72 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.

Red Sox are 5-8 in last 13 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games. Rangers are 27-9 in its last 36 home games; last three Texas games went over the total.

Blue Jays @ White Sox
Stroman is 1-2, 8.67 in his last five starts; seven of his last eight went over.

Sale is 3-0, 4.05 in his last three starts; eight of his last nine went over.

Blue Jays lost four of last six games; over is 7-4-1 in their last 12 road games. Chicago won four of last six games; under is 8-6 in their last 14 games. White Sox hit seven HRs but lost Saturday, only third team to do that. Ever.

Astros @ Royals
Fister is 4-0, 1.71 in his last four starts; six of his last seven road starts stayed under.

Kennedy is 1-3, 7.25 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-2 in his last six.

Astros won nine of last ten games; under is 12-4 in last 16 Houston games. Kansas City lost its last four games; over is 11-3-1 in Royals' last 15 home games.

A's @ Angels
Gray is 0-1, 3.65 in four starts since coming off DL; over is 8-2-1 in his last 11 starts. .

Santiago is 1-0, 1.46 in his last two starts; six of his last seven went over.

Angels are 5-14 in their last 19 games; eight of their last nine home games went over. Oakland won four of last five games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.


Interleague

Cardinals @ Mariners
Garcia is 3-0, 1.24 in his last five starts, four of which stayed under.

Paxton is 1-3, 5.46 in his five starts (under 3-2).

Cardinals lost seven of last ten games; seven of last ten St Louis games stayed under. Seattle lost six of last eight games; six of last eight Mariner games stayed under.


Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:

LA-Pitt-- Kershaw 14-1; Kuhl 0-0
SD-Cin-- Perdomo 3-1; DeSclafani 2-1
Chi-Mia-- Hammel 9-5 (0-3 last 3); Fernandez 10-4
NY-Atl-- Colon 9-5 (4-0 last 4); Norris 4-5
Wsh-Mil-- Roark 7-8; Nelson 7-8 (0-4 last 4)
Az-Col-- Corbin 6-9; Bettis 8-7
Phil-SF-- Nola 7-8; Cueto 13-2

TB-Balt-- Smyly 6-8; Wilson 5-6
Min-NY-- Duffey 3-8; Eovaldi 8-6
Clev-Det-- Tomlin 11-2; Verlander 9-6 (4-0 last 4)
Bos-Tex-- Buchholz 3-8; Perez 8-7 (6-0 last 6)
Tor-Chi-- Stroman 8-7; Sale 12-3
Hst-KC-- Fister 11-3; Kennedy 8-6
A's-LA-- Gray 5-8; Santiago 9-6

StL-Sea-- Garcia 7-7; Paxton 1-4


Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:

LA-Pitt-- Kershaw 2-15; Kuhl 0-0
SD-Cin-- Perdomo 3-4; DeSclafani 1-3
Chi-Mia-- Hammel 3-14; Fernandez 3-14
NY-Atl-- Colon 4-13; Norris 2-9
Wsh-Mil-- Roark 3-15; Nelson 4-15
Az-Col-- Corbin 7-15; Bettis 6-15
Phil-SF-- Nola 7-15; Cueto 4-15

TB-Balt-- Smyly 3-14; Wilson 5-11
Min-NY-- Duffey 3-11; Eovaldi 3-14
Clev-Det-- Tomlin 7-13; Verlander 6-15
Bos-Tex-- Buchholz 5-11; Perez 5-15
Tor-Chi-- Stroman 4-15; Sale 4-15
Hst-KC-- Fister 3-14; Kennedy 4-14
A's-LA-- Gray 2-13; Santiago 8-15

StL-Sea-- Garcia 4-14; Paxton 1-5


Umpires

LA-Pitt-- Seven of last nine Conroy games went over.
SD-Cin-- Last three Cuzzi games stayed under the total.
Chi-Mia-- Underdogs won six of last seven Hirschbeck games.
NY-Atl-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Everitt games.
Wsh-Mil-- Six of last eight Estabrook games stayed under.
Az-Col-- Last five Kellogg games stayed under total.
Phil-SF-- Underdogs won three of last five Eddings games.

TB-Balt-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Diaz games.
Min-NY-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Vanover games.
Clev-Det-- Three of last four Reynolds games stayed under.
Bos-Tex-- Favorites won seven of last eight Cederstrom games.
Tor-Chi-- Four of last five Barksdale games stayed under.
Hst-KC-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Danley games.
A's-LA-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Wolcott games.

StL-Sea-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last 11 Torres games.