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Post by Gooba on Jun 28, 2016 6:44:16 GMT -5
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
Hottest team: Astros (10-2 past 12)
The Houston Astros doubled up the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at the Big A Monday night, as Collin McHugh recorded a quality start. They turn to 6-foot-7 veteran SP Scott Feldman to make the start in the second game of the series, as SP Lance McCullers (blister) was scratched from his start. Houston is still locked in as a road favorite, and the public likes them at about a 60-40 clip. Houston has won four of their past five road games, and they're 16-5 in their past 21 games against a team with a losing overall record. Their hot streak will be put to the test, however, as the 'Stros are 0-6 in Feldman's past six starts.
Coldest team: Nationals (2-7 past 9)
The Washington Nationals picked up an 11-4 victory to kick off their homestand, but it was just their second win in the past nine games. The first-place Nats are so desperate to hang onto the perch in the National League East that they pulled the trigger and called up top prospect SP Lucas Giolito to make the start Tuesday against the Mets. The Nationals have been equally ice-cold against the Mets at home, dropping five of the past six meetings with their divisional rivals at Nationals Park.
Hottest pitcher: Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks (10-3, 3.61 ERA)
Greinke and the Arizona Diamondbacks look to rebound after being humbled 8-0 in the opening game of the series Monday night. Greinke is the perfect stopper, as he enters 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in five starts over the past 30 days while striking out 31 batters in 39 innings with a .180 opponent batting average and 0.85 WHIP. Arizona is 12-2 in Greinke's past 14 assignments, including 4-0 in his past four starts at home. In addition, the Snakes are 7-0 in Greinke's past seven outings against a team with a losing overall record.
Coldest pitcher: Chris Archer, Rays (4-10, 4.70 ERA)
Archer leads the majors with 10 losses through 16 starts, and he has a career-worst 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP despite ranking among the best in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings ratio (K/9). To make matters worse, Archer is 1-7 with a 5.67 ERA in 12 career outings against the Boston Red Sox, his most losses against any opponent. In his only meeting against Boston this season, he was tuned up for six earned runs, eight hits and three walks in just 4 1/3 innings in a loss back on April 20.
Biggest UNDER run: Cardinals (7-3-2 past 12)
The Cardinals have had a little bit of a power outage on their current road trip, and they have scratched out four or fewer runs in 10 of their past 12 games. The under is also 5-2 in their past seven matchups against a right-handed starter, while going an impressive 35-15-5 in their past 55 against American League Central squads. Total bettors will also be interested in the fact the under is 4-0-2 in their past six trips west on Interstate 70 to Kansas City, and 8-1-4 in the past 13 meetings overall between these Show-Me State rivals.
Biggest OVER run: Rockies (7-0 past seven)
The Colorado Rockies are enjoying a little home cooking, posting overs in each of their five home games, and seven straight games overall. They are averaging 8.8 runs per game over the past five, and with SP Eddie Butler on the hill another over result is in the offing. The over is 4-1-1 in his past six home starts, while the over is 10-3 in their past 13 games at Coors Field against left-handed starting pitchers. The over is also an impressive 17-5 in Colorado's past 22 interleague home games against teams with a winning overall mark.
Matchup to watch: Mariners vs. Pirates
The Seattle Mariners host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of their interleague series. The Mariners are two games under .500 in 36 games at Safeco Field this season, but they came alive with a series win against the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. The M's were resting on an off day Monday, while the Pirates were busy playing an afternoon game against the Dodgers in Pittsburgh to conclude their wrap-around series at PNC Park. The Pirates have dropped their past five on the road, and they're a dismal 3-12 in their past 15 against right-handed starting pitching. The Mariners have won five of the past seven starts by Hisashi Iwakuma, and they're 8-2 in their past 10 interleague battles.
Betcha didn’t know: The biggest reason for the struggles of the Minnesota Twins this season has been their inability to win inside their own division. The Twins are a dismal 5-22 in their past 27 games against American League Central Division foes. Something's gotta give against the Chicago White Sox, as the Pale Hose are just 5-17 in their past 22 games inside the division. Looking at head-to-head statistics, trends point to Chicago. The Twins have won just one of their past five trips to U.S. Cellular Field, and the Twins have dropped six in a row against the White Sox.
Biggest public favorite: Indians (-165) at Braves
Biggest public underdog: Cardinals (+115) at Royals
Biggest line move: Indians (+150 to +165) at Braves
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Post by Gooba on Jun 28, 2016 6:44:43 GMT -5
'Twins have tough road ahead'
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox June 28, 8:10 EST
Sometimes in sports a team just has another team's number and that's the case for the Chicago White Sox when it comes to Minnesota Twins. In six meetings this season the White Sox have won each contest by an average 4.5 runs/game. Twins 9-26 in an opposing park, 2-10 last twelve away vs the division are 1-4 last five trips to the windy city.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 28, 2016 6:45:12 GMT -5
MLB Betting: Division Underdogs
Just about half of a team’s 162 game MLB schedule is against division rivals and these games have a lot more meaning to them as team's try to either win a division title or get into the playoffs. If you're going to bet on underdogs, it's a great idea to focus on divisional games as there is extra incentive for team's in these matchups and under the right set of circumstances can deliver big profits.
At this point in the season, divisional home underdogs have won 53 games, lost 86 with a negative impact of -$2045 against the money line. Division road underdogs have walked off winners in 137 and at the wrong end of a decision 167 times. But, the road pooches have been a good choice, stuffing betting accounts to the tune of +$1533. Of course, you can't blindly bet on divisional road underdogs every time and expect to come out ahead in the long run, so let’s take a look at a situation where it favors you.
Our MLB number crunching machine chips in small to medium divisional road underdogs priced between +$1.00 and +$1.50 delivered the goods. In this situation the home favorite essentially has an edge but isn't overly superior meaning the underdog in what is basically a tossup game can easily upset the odds offering good value. In 221 situations so far, division road underdogs in the +$1.00 to +$1.50 range won at a 48.4% clip (107-114) rewarding backers with +$1527 at the betting window.
An even better ROI can be had focusing on fewer plays with less total money at risk. In this situation we want to concentrate strickly on a division road underdog that won the first game of the series and getting little respect in game-two as they won at a 55.3% clip (21-17) cashing +$788 worth of tickets.
While there's no guarantee small to medium divisional road underdogs in the above mentioned situation will continue to perform the rest of the way, the angle is definitely worth keeping an eye-out for.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 28, 2016 6:45:52 GMT -5
MLB
Tuesday's games
National League games
Mets @ Nationals
Harvey is 0-2, 2.88 in his last four starts; his last five stayed under.
Highly touted prospect Giolito is making his MLB debut; he was 5-3, 3.17 in 14 AAA starts this season.
Mets are 5-8 in last 13 road games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Washington lost seven of last nine games; eight of Nationals' last ten home games went over.
Cubs @ Reds
Lester is 5-0, 1.87 in his last six starts; five of his last six road starts went over. .
Lamb is 0-1, 4.91 in his last four starts (under 3-2-1 in his home starts).
Cubs lost six of last eight games; under is 8-6 in their last 14 games. Cincinnati lost seven of last nine games; six of Reds' last nine home games stayed under.
Dodgers @ Brewers
Urias is 0-1, 1.88 in his last three starts, which all stayed under.
Anderson is 0-1, 13.51 in his last two starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
Dodgers lost three of last four games; they're 3-10 in road series openers. Milwaukee is 4-1 in last five home games; they're 6-7 in home series openers. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Dodger games, 7-5 in last 12 games at Miller Park.
Phillies @ Diamondbacks
Eickhoff is 3-1, 2.19 in his last four starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
Greinke is 4-0, 1.47 in his last five starts, four of which stayed under.
Phillies lost 14 of last 18 games; over is 10-3 in their last 13 road games. Arizona is 4-8 in its last 12 home games; four of last five Diamondback games went over.
American League games
Rangers @ Bronx
Hamels is 3-0, 0.87 in his last three starts; seven of his last nine starts went over.
Sabathia is 2-0, 3.63 in his last four starts; five of his last six stayed under.
Rangers won 11 of last 13 games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 road games. New York is 3-5 in its last eight home games, six of their last nine games stayed under.
Red Sox @ Rays
Porcello is 1-0, 5.40 in his last six starts (over 4-1-1)..
Archer is 0-3, 5.03 in his last three starts, which all stayed under.
Red Sox lost six of last eight games; five of last six Boston road games went over total. Tampa Bay lost 11 of last 12 games; their last three games all went over.
Twins @ White Sox
Gibson is 0-5, 6.81 in his last seven starts; three of his last four went over.
Quintana is 0-2, 5.61 in his last four starts; under is 13-1 in his last 14 starts.
Twins lost seven of last nine road games; they're 3-9 in road series openers. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games, 7-5 in home series openers. Three of last four Chicago games stayed under, as have last three Minnesota games.
Astros @ Angels
McCullers is 1-1, 3.20 in his last four starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
Lincecum is 1-1, 5.00 in his two starts for the Angels (over 1-1).
Houston won ten of its last 12 games; under is 14-4 in Astros' last 18 games. Angels are 6-15 in their last 21 games; nine of their last 11 home games went over.
Interleague
Marlins @ Tigers
Conley is 2-0, 0.66 in his last two starts, five of his last six starts stayed under.
Pelfrey is 0-2, 7.13 in his last three starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten.
Marlins are 9-4 in their last 13 games, 8-3 in road series openers. Over is 9-2 in Miami's last 11 road games. Detroit lost its last three games; they're 6-6 in home series openers. Four of last six Tiger games stayed under the total.
Indians @ Braves
Kluber is 5-2, 3.58 in his last seven starts; under is 6-4-1 in his last eleven.
Wisler is 1-4, 6.29 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.
Indians won their last ten games, four of last five Cleveland road games went over the total. Atlanta is 8-4 in its last 12 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Cardinals @ Royals
Wacha is 1-1, 2.11 in his last three starts; eight of his last nine went over.
Ventura is 2-0, 0.66 in his last two starts; four of his last five went over.
Cardinals are 9-3 in last 12 road games, over is 11-8 in their last 19 road games. Kansas City lost four of last six games, six of Royals' last nine home games went over.
Blue Jays @ Rockies
Happ is 3-0, 3.32 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Butler is 0-2, 7.96 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over. .
Blue Jays lost six of last eight games, four of their last six games stayed under. Colorado won seven of last nine home games, six of last seven games at Coors Field went over.
Orioles @ Padres
Jimenez is 2-2, 9.50 in his last five starts; six of his last seven went over.
Johnson is 0-3, 9.82 in three starts for San Diego (under 2-1).
Orioles won their last five games, are 6-5 in road series openers. Three of last four Oriole road games stayed under. San Diego won six of its last eight games; they're 8-5 in home series openers. Last five San Diego home games went over the total.
Pirates @ Mariners
Niese is 0-3, 9.18 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Iwakuma is 2-2, 5.96 in his last four starts; six of his last eight went over.
Pirates won three of last four games overall but are 1-9 in last 10 road games, 8-5 in road series openers. Over is 11-8 in their last 19 games. Seattle lost seven of last nine games; they're 6-6 in home series openers. Three of last four Seattle home games went over.
A's @ Giants
Graveman is 1-0, 2.04 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. .
Suarez is 1-0, 5.14 in four starts this year (over 2-1-1). .
A's won four of last five games, all of which went over the total. San Francisco won 13 of last 17 home games- four of their last five home games went over.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
NY-Wsh-- Harvey 5-10; Giolito 0-0
Chi-Cin-- Lester 11-4; Lamb 3-7
LA-Mil-- Urias 2-3; Anderson 5-9
Phil-Az-- Eickhoff 6-9; Greinke 12-4
Tex-NY-- Hamels 11-4; Sabathia 7-5
Bos-TB-- Porcello 10-5; Archer 5-11
Min-Chi-- Gibson 2-5; Quintana 7-8
Hst-LA-- McCullers 5-3; Lincecum 1-1
Mia-Det-- Conley 8-7; Pelfrey 5-9
Cle-Atl-- Kluber 7-8; Wisler 4-10
StL-KC-- Wacha 7-8; Ventura 9-5
Tor-Col-- Happ 10-5; Butler 2-6
Blt-SD-- Jimenez 7-7; Johnson 0-3/0-2
Pitt-Sea-- Niese 8-7; Iwakuma 8-7
A's-SF-- Graveman 5-9; Suarez 2-2
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
NY-Wsh-- Harvey 3-15; Giolito 0-0
Chi-Cin-- Lester 4-15; Lamb 4-10
LA-Mil-- Urias 1-5; Anderson 6-14
Phil-Az-- Eickhoff 5-15; Greinke 5-16
Tex-NY-- Hamels 3-15; Sabathia 0-12
Bos-TB-- Porcello 5-15; Archer 8-16
Min-Chi-- Gibson 3-7; Quintana 2-15
Hst-LA-- McCullers 3-8; Lincecum 0-2
Mia-Det-- Conley 5-15; Pelfrey 8-14
Cle-Atl-- Kluber 4-15; Wisler 7-14
StL-KC-- Wacha 4-15; Ventura 4-14
Tor-Col-- Happ 4-15; Butler 4-8
Blt-SD-- Jimenez 6-14; Johnson 2-5
Pitt-Sea-- Niese 3-15; Iwakuma 3-15
A's-SF-- Graveman 3-14; Suarez 2-4
Umpires
NY-Wsh-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Guccione games.
Chi-Cin-- Underdogs won four of last five Winters games.
Phil-Az-- Seven of last eight Hoberg games stayed under.
Tex-NY-- Underdogs won five of last six Nauert games.
Bos-TB-- Five of last seven Reyburn games stayed under.
Hst-LA-- Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Holbrook games.
Cle-Atl-- Last four HGibson games went over the total
StL-KC-- Six of last eight Timmons games went over.
Tor-Col-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Diaz games.
A's-SF-- Last four Iassogna games stayed under total.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 28, 2016 6:46:23 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | MINNESOTA at CHI WHITE SOX
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL), playing on Tuesday
92-85 over the last 5 seasons. ( 52.0% | 49.4 units )
6-13 this year. ( 31.6% | -3.7 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 16-6 (+12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was: ARIZONA (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.5)
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Post by Gooba on Jun 28, 2016 6:46:49 GMT -5
Tuesday's six-pack
-- A man named Ronald McDonald was shot Thursday at a Sonic Drive-In in Lumberton, NC. Really, he was. Mr McDonald is said to be OK, but he was upset that the hospital didn't serve breakfast 24 hours a day.
-- Kris Bryant had three HRs, two doubles last nite, coming with three total bases of the all-time record (19) for total bases in a game, held by Sean Green.
-- Roberto Clemente used a bat that was 36 inches long, weighed 39 ounces.
-- When he was 30 years old, Harrison Ford was a carpenter, not an actor.
-- Morehead State gave hoop coach Sean Woods a contract extension thru 2020.
-- There were 52 homers hit in major leagues Sunday, most of any day this year
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Post by Gooba on Jun 28, 2016 6:47:33 GMT -5
Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, June 28, 2016, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews
So how worried should the Nationals be now that $175 million man Stephen Strasburg, who already has had one Tommy John surgery, is back on the disabled list? At least this one isn't an arm problem but an upper back strain. It forced Strasburg to be scratched from last Monday's scheduled start vs. the Dodgers and then Sunday's outing vs. Milwaukee. The team placed him on the DL on Sunday, retroactive to June 16. The guy has only made it through one full season (2014) where he didn't miss a start. Strasburg has reached the 200-inning plateau once in six seasons and probably won't get there this year. So it was clearly smart of him to sign that extension earlier this season, but I don't really get why the Nationals offered it. Washington had to push up Joe Ross to start Monday's game because of this injury and has yet to announce a starter for Tuesday against the Mets. It's possible that arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball, right-hander Lucas Giolito, is the guy.
Blue Jays at Rockies (+135, 12.5)
Toronto loses the DH in this interleague game but presumably will move MLB RBI leader Edwin Encarnacion to first base and bench Justin Smoak. Monitor the status of Colorado second baseman DJ LeMahieu as well. He was to have an MRI on Monday after leaving Sunday's game against Arizona with a bruised left knee. LeMahieu enters the week tied for third in the National League with a .327 average. Daniel Descalso likely will start at second for however long LeMahieu might miss. The Jays start lefty J.A. Happ (9-3, 3.42) on the mound. They have won his past three. He allowed two runs over five innings last time out against Arizona. NL home run leader Nolan Arenado is 1-for-6 career off Happ. Charlie Blackmon is as well. The Rockies' Eddie Butler (2-4, 6.71) hasn't won since mid-May. He allowed six runs and 11 hits over five innings Thursday against the Diamondbacks. Butler has never faced Toronto.
Key trends: The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Happ's past five interleague starts. The Rockies are 2-11 in Butler's past 13 vs. teams with a winning record. The "over/under" is 4-1-1 in his past six at home.
Early lean: Blue Jays and over.
Marlins at Tigers (-105, 9.5)
Miami will add the designated hitter for this interleague game. Detroit swept two games in South Florida to open the season. The Marlins start lefty Adam Conley (4-4, 3.56). He hadn't won since May 16 but did Wednesday against Atlanta in throwing eight shutout innings, allowing four hits. That was the first time this season a Marlins starter made it through eight innings. The Marlins haven't had a complete game since Henderson Alvarez against Tampa Bay on June 3, 2014, at Marlins Park. Conley has never faced the Tigers. They go with Mike Pelfrey (1-7, 5.19). His rotation spot has gotten shaky again as Pelfrey was pelted for six runs and 12 hits over five innings last time out against Seattle, although he avoided a loss. A few Marlins have seen him. Martin Prado is 10-for-22 with six doubles, a homer and three RBIs. Giancarlo Stanton is 9-for-19 with two homers.
Key trends: The Marlins are 2-6 in their past eight after an off day. The Tigers are 4-0 in Pelfrey's past four at home. The over is 8-3 in Miami's past 11 on the road. The over is 4-1 in Pelfrey's past five at home.
Early lean: Tigers and over.
Twins at White Sox (-170, 8.5)
Perhaps Chicago can start to right its season in this series as the White Sox are 6-0 against the Twins thus far. But those two series were back when the Pale Hose were one of the American League's best teams. They go with lefty Jose Quintana (5-7, 3.04) in the opener. His last win was May 8 vs. the Twins when he allowed one run in seven innings. The Sox lost his next seven but won Wednesday in Boston even though Quintana was rocked for six runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings. He walked a season-high six. Joe Mauer is a career .344 hitter off Quintana with two homers in 32 at-bats. Brian Dozier is 7-for-37 against him with nine strikeouts. The Twins go with Kyle Gibson (0-5, 6.05). Since coming off a long DL stint, he has allowed 13 runs and 21 hits over 18 innings in three starts. Gibson lost to the White Sox on April 11, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings. Brett Lawrie is 4-for-7 against him. Jose Abreu 3-for-17 with two doubles and a homer.
Key trends: The Twins are 1-4 in Gibson's past five in Game 1 of a series. The Sox are 0-5 in Quintana's past five on five days of rest. The under is 11-5-2 in Gibson's past 18 on the road.
Early lean: White Sox and under.
Dodgers at Brewers (+120, 9)
Los Angeles goes with 19-year-old lefty Julio Urias (0-2, 4.33). He made his sixth big-league start Wednesday against Washington and took a no-decision, allowing two runs and six hits over five innings with six strikeouts. There was talk that might be his final big-league start of the year, but they will go at least one more here. The Dodgers don't want him going much past 100 combined innings this year in the majors and minors combined. Urias is now at 27 innings in the major leagues -- and 68 innings when combined with his work at Triple-A Oklahoma City. This will be interesting because the Brewers will be the first team he has seen twice. On June 17, Urias threw five shutout innings against them and struck out a career-high eight. Milwaukee counters with Chase Anderson (4-7, 5.13). He was rocked for seven runs over 2.1 innings in his most recent start on June 18 at the Dodgers. The team decided to skip Anderson's last turn in the rotation, but he's not hurt. Adrian Gonzalez is 6-for-13 career off Anderson with a homer. Yasmani Grandal has three homers and six RBIs off him in 11 at-bats.
Key trends: The Dodgers have won eight straight on Tuesday. The Brewers are 1-4 in Anderson's past five vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 5-2 in the Dodgers' past seven on Tuesday.
Early lean: Urias gets his first big-league win -- I almost think the Dodgers are partly keeping him in the rotation so he can. Go under.
Cardinals at Royals (-120, 8.5)
St. Louis will add the DH. Bragging rights in the "Show Me State" on the line in this series. Not impossible the teams play in the World Series against one another this fall as they did in 1985 -- although obviously the chances of that were much higher last year when the Cardinals and Royals were the top seeds in NL and AL playoffs, respectively. The Cards go with Michael Wacha (3-7, 4.41). He looks back in form with three straight quality starts. Wacha beat Jake Arrieta and the Cubs last Wednesday, allowing two runs in 6.2 innings. The Royals' Lorenzo Cain is 3-for-9 career off him. Salvador Perez is 2-for-6 with two RBIs. Kansas City's Yordano Ventura (6-4, 4.54) makes his first start since shutting out the White Sox on six hits over 6.1 innings on June 17. Ventura then served his eight-game suspension for his role in a brawl with the Baltimore Orioles. The Cardinals' Matt Carpenter is 2-for-7 career off Ventura with a homer and three RBIs. Yadier Molina is 1-for-8 off him.
Key trends: The Cards are 4-1 in Wacha's past five interleague starts. The Royals are 0-6 in Ventura's past six interleague starts. The under is 5-1-1 in Ventura's past seven interleague starts.
Early lean: Cardinals and under.
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