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Post by Makers on Jun 30, 2016 4:51:02 GMT -5
 Thursday's Diamond NotesHottest team: Orioles (7-0 past 7)The Baltimore Orioles powered their way past the San Diego Padres in interleague play, and now set their sights on the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. The O's have scored at least 11 runs in each of their past three games, and five or more runs in eight straight outings. A big part of their success has been the long ball, as they enter Thursday's game with 55 homers in the month of June. If they can hit one home run they will break the all-time record for homers hit in June. The Orioles have won four straight against right-handed pitchers, and they're 5-2 in Chris Tillman's past seven road starts. Coldest team: Rays (2-12 past 14)The Tampa Bay Rays blanked the Boston Red Sox and old friend David Price in Wednesday's game, taking two of three from their division rivals. But they still have a long way to go before bettors stop fading them and start to take them seriously. They haven't been able to beat a right-handed pitcher in quite some time, going 0-11 vs. RHP overall, including 0-4 in their past four tries at home against righties. They're also a dismal 1-4 in Jake Odorizzi's past five home outings. The Tigers have won five of the past seven meetings in this series, too. Hottest pitcher: Madison Bumgarner, Giants (8-4, 1.99 ERA) MadBum enters his start Thursday in Oakland with a sub-2.00 ERA and 122 strikeouts over 108 1/3 innings in 16 starts. He wasn't terribly impressive last time out, so that doesn't bode well for the A's in this one. Manager Bruce Bochy is so confident in Bumgarner that he is letting him hit, too, in an American League park. It has been 40 years since a major league manager intentionally forfeited the designated hitter in an American League ballpark. It isn't that Bumgarner is lighting it up offensively, but the team is short on right-handed hitters against LHP Dillon Overton, and he does have 11 homers over the past 183 at-bats.
Coldest pitcher: R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays (5-8, 4.23 ERA) The knuckleballer Dickey has the unenviable task of trying to shut down the streaking Cleveland Indians, who enter on a 12-game overall win streak, including six in a row on the road. To make matters worse for Dickey, the Blue Jays are 0-8 in his past eight starts at Rogers Centre, and 4-11 in his past 15 starts overall. Toronto has won eight of their past 11 games at home, and they're 18-8 in their past 26 vs. RHP. The Indians have managed just two wins in their past seven trips north of the border. Biggest UNDER run: Mets (7-3 past 10) The Mets offense has been struggling lately, averaging just 1.8 runs per game over their past five outings. It's no surprise that they have lost four of those games, and the under has also gone 4-1 during the span. They'll be trying to take down Cubs RHP John Lackey. The under is 7-2 in Lackey's past nine outings, and the under is 5-1-1 in Chicago's past seven against left-handed pitching. The under is 9-2 in New York's past 11 vs. RHP, including 4-0 in their past four home games against righties. In this series the under is 8-3-2 in the past 13 meetings, and 5-1-1 in the past seven tilts at Citi Field.
Biggest OVER run: Yankees (8-2-1 past 11) The other New York team is having an under run, but the Yankees are on an over kick. They'll wrap up their four-game set against Texas Thursday afternoon, with the over going 2-0-1 in the first three outings. The Rangers are also on an over run, going 5-1-2 over their past eight, and 4-1 in A.J. Griffin's past five outings. The over has cashed in six of the past eight for the Yankees vs. RHP, and 5-2-1 in their past eight home games. New York pitching has allowed six or more runs in four straight, and eight of the past 10 outings. Matchup to watch: Braves vs. Marlins The Miami Marlins head up Interstate 75 to Atlanta looking to add to the misery of the Braves. Atlanta has won just 11 of their 43 games at Turner Field this season, and they are coming off a sweep at the hands of the red-hot Cleveland Indians. The Marlins have been strong on the road, winning 20 of their 38 games away from South Florida. The Marlins will also have the luxury of facing RHP Mike Foltynewicz, who is fresh off the 15-day disabled list and could potentially show a little rust after a long layoff. Betcha didn’t know: The Reds and Nationals square off in D.C. with two ice-cold pitchers on the bump. The Reds are just 2-11 in Brandon Finnegan's past 13 starts overall, and 1-5 in his past six road outings. The Nationals are 0-7 in Gio Gonzalez's past seven outings, and 1-4 in his past five home outings. So something's gotta give. The Nats are also 0-4 in their past four against southpaws. So something's gotta give. Looking at past history in this series, the Reds have dominated. Cincinnati is 7-2 in the past nine matchups, and 5-2 in their past seven trips to our nation's capital.
Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-200) vs. Reds
Biggest public underdog: Rangers (+135) at Yankees
Biggest line move: Athletics (+160 to +145) vs. Giants |
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Post by Gooba on Jun 30, 2016 5:49:23 GMT -5
MLB Betting: Division Underdogs
Just about half of a team’s 162 game MLB schedule is against division rivals and these games have a lot more meaning to them as team's try to either win a division title or get into the playoffs. If you're going to bet on underdogs, it's a great idea to focus on divisional games as there is extra incentive for team's in these matchups and under the right set of circumstances can deliver big profits.
At this point in the season, divisional home underdogs have won 53 games, lost 86 with a negative impact of -$2045 against the money line. Division road underdogs have walked off winners in 137 and at the wrong end of a decision 167 times. But, the road pooches have been a good choice, stuffing betting accounts to the tune of +$1533. Of course, you can't blindly bet on divisional road underdogs every time and expect to come out ahead in the long run, so let’s take a look at a situation where it favors you.
Our MLB number crunching machine chips in small to medium divisional road underdogs priced between +$1.00 and +$1.50 delivered the goods. In this situation the home favorite essentially has an edge but isn't overly superior meaning the underdog in what is basically a tossup game can easily upset the odds offering good value. In 221 situations so far, division road underdogs in the +$1.00 to +$1.50 range won at a 48.4% clip (107-114) rewarding backers with +$1527 at the betting window.
An even better ROI can be had focusing on fewer plays with less total money at risk. In this situation we want to concentrate strickly on a division road underdog that won the first game of the series and getting little respect in game-two as they won at a 55.3% clip (21-17) cashing +$788 worth of tickets.
While there's no guarantee small to medium divisional road underdogs in the above mentioned situation will continue to perform the rest of the way, the angle is definitely worth keeping an eye-out for.
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Post by Gooba on Jun 30, 2016 6:04:40 GMT -5
'Red Hot Indians and Blue Jays meet in Toronto'
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays June 30, 7:05 EST
Cleveland playing some of their best baseball travel to Toronto for a four games series against the Blue Jays. Indians one of the hottest teams in the majors have reeled off a 21-6 record in June including a sparkling 12-0 streak heading into Friday action. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, thanks to a relief staff getting spanked for 36 hits, 23 runs the past ten carry a mini 4-6 funk into the series.
Righthander Carlos Carrasco will toe the rubber for Cleveland, bringing a 3-2 record to the hill with a 2.73 ERA. In his last outing Carrasco tossed a complete-game, four-hit shutout of the Tigers for his three straight quality starts. Carrasco has a 2-1 team start record vs Toronto.
Carrasco will be trading pitches with R.A. Dickey, who has a 5-8 record, 4.23 ERA on the campaign. The knuckleballer tagged for four yard-ball his last start has a 2-2 team start record vs Cleveland since joining Toronto.
Carrasco in great form allowing 4 runs, with 21 K's his last three start, Tribe on a 7-2 stretch with the hurler, Blue Jays ridding an 0-7 skid on home field with Dickey, the lean is Cleveland
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Post by Gooba on Jun 30, 2016 6:05:11 GMT -5
MLB
Thursday's games
National League games
Dodgers @ Brewers
Maeda is 1-2, 3.47 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Davies is 4-0, 2.79 in his last six starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five
Dodgers lost four of last six games; under is 6-3-1 in last ten Dodger games. Milwaukee is 5-2 in last seven home games; three of its last five games went over.
Reds @ Nationals
Finnegan is 2-4, 3.18 in his last seven starts; Reds were shut out in three of those four losses. His last four starts stayed under the total. .
Gonzalez is 0-6, 8.68 in his last seven starts; over is 7-2-1 in his last ten.
Washington won its last four games; eight of Nationals' last 12 home games went over. Cincinnati lost nine of last 11 games; seven of Reds' last nine games went over. Seven of Reds' last nine games went over. Under is 6-3 in last nine Washington games.
Cubs @ Mets
Lackey is 0-2, 6.61 in his last three starts; six of his last nine stayed under.
Matz is 0-2, 6.00 in his last five starts; six of his last eight stayed under.
Cubs won their last three games, are 8-5 in road series openers; last five Chicago games went over. Mets lost last four games, are 9-3 in home series openers. Under is 9-2-1 in last dozen New York games.
Marlins @ Braves
Chen is 1-0, 7.40 in his last five starts; five of his last seven went over.
Foltynewicz was 2-1, 2.73 in his last five starts before going on DL (under 3-2-1).
Marlins lost five of last seven road games, are 8-4 in road series openers. Over is 11-2 in last 13 Marlin road games. Atlanta lost five of last six games; they're 5-9 in home series openers. Under is 9-3 in Braves' last twelve games.
American League games
Rangers @ Bronx
Griffin is 0-0, 4.15 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over.
Pineda is 1-2, 4.54 in his last six starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven.
Rangers won 12 of last 15 games; over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 road games. New York is 4-6 in its last ten home games, four of its last six games stayed under.
Twins @ White Sox
Milone is 0-2, 6.84 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Rodon is 0-2, 3.41 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under.
Twins lost eight of last 11 road games. Chicago is 6-3 in its last nine games; four of last six White Sox games stayed under, as have four of last five Minnesota games.
Indians @ Blue Jays
Carrasco is 1-1, 1.61 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under.
Dickey is 1-2, 5.60 in his last three starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Indians won their last 12 games, are 8-6 in road series openers. Five of their last seven road games went over. Toronto is 10-4 in last 14 home games, but just 3-9 in home series openers. Under is 8-4 in their last twelve home games.
Tigers @ Rays
Zimmerman is 1-2, 8.10 in his last four starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Odorizzi is 0-1, 5.94 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Tigers won six of last nine games, are 4-9 in road series openers. Five of their last seven road games went over. Tampa Bay lost 12 of last 14 games, is 5-8 in openers of a home series. Four of Rays' last five games went over the total.
Orioles @ Mariners
Tillman is 9-0, 3.29 in his last 12 starts; four of his last six starts went over.
Walker is 1-0, 2.20 in his last three starts (under 9-5).
Orioles won their last six games, are 7-5 in road series openers. Last three Baltimore games went over the total. Seattle lost eight of last 11 games, is 7-6 in home series openers. Three of last four Mariner games went over the total.
Interleague
Royals @ Cardinals
Young is 0-3, 9.15 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Leake is 1-1, 6.75 in his last four starts; his last five starts went over.
Kansas City won three of last four games, their last five road games stayed under total. Cardinals lost six in row at home for first time since 1997 (under 5-1).
Giants @ A's
Bumgarner is 2-2, 1.71 in his last six starts; seven of his last eight stayed under.
Overton allowed three runs in 5.2 IP (108 PT) in his MLB debut. .
A's won six of last seven games, six of which went over the total. San Francisco lost four of last five games- six of their last nine games went over the total.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
LA-Mil-- Maeda 8-7; Davies 7-6
Cin-Wsh-- Finnegan 4-12; Gonzalez 5-10
Chi-NY-- Lackey 9-6; Matz 8-5
Mia-Atl-- Chen 9-6; Foltynewicz 2-4
Tex-NY-- Griffin 6-1; Pineda 7-8
Min-Chi-- Milone 2-3; Rodon 4-10
Cle-Tor-- Carrasco 7-2; Dickey 5-11
Det-TB-- Zimmerman 9-5; Odorizzi 8-8
Blt-Sea-- Tillman 14-2; Walker 5-9
KC-StL-- Young 4-7; Leake 7-8
SF-A's-- Bumgarner 11-5; Overton 1-0
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
LA-Mil-- Maeda 3-15; Davies 4-13
Cin-Wsh-- Finnegan 4-16; Gonzalez 3-15
Chi-NY-- Lackey 4-15; Matz 2-13
Mia-Atl-- Chen 6-15; Foltynewicz 2-6
Tex-NY-- Griffin 1-7; Pineda 6-15
Min-Chi-- Milone 0-5; Rodon 5-14
Cle-Tor-- Carrasco 2-9; Dickey 6-16
Det-TB-- Zimmerman 3-14; Odorizzi 2-16
Blt-Sea-- Tillman 4-16; Walker 2-14
KC-StL-- Young 5-11; Leake 5-15
SF-A's-- Bumgarner 2-16; Overton 1-1
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Post by Gooba on Jun 30, 2016 6:05:32 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | MIAMI at ATLANTA
Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL
39-16 since 1997. ( 70.9% | 23.2 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | CLEVELAND at TORONTO
CLEVELAND is 11-1 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in Road games when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (5.0) , OPPONENT (2.5)
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