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Post by Gooba on Jan 5, 2016 8:19:00 GMT -5
NBA notebook: Pistons' Morris, Pacers' George fined
By The Sports Xchange
Detroit Pistons forward Marcus Morris has been fined $15,000 for shoving Indiana Pacers forward Paul George, the NBA announced Monday.
Kiki VanDeWeghe, the NBA's executive vice president of basketball operations, also said George was fined $10,000 for contributing to the altercation.
The incident occurred at the conclusion of the Pacers' 94-82 win over the Pistons on Saturday night at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
George poured in a game-high 32 points and scored his team's last 21 as the Pacers pulled away for the win. George and Morris got into a shoving match as the game ended and had to be separated.
---Milwaukee Bucks guard O.J. Mayo was fined $25,000 for aggressively pursuing a game official and failing to leave the court in a timely manner upon his ejection.
The incident occurred after Mayo was assessed his second technical foul of the game with 4:08 remaining in the first quarter of Milwaukee's 95-85 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday night at Target Center.
Mayo needed to be escorted from the court by coaches and security.
---Golden State Warriors rookie forward Kevon Looney, who has missed the entire season due to hip surgery, was assigned to the Santa Cruz Warriors of the NBA Development League.
Looney, 19, will begin practicing with the Warriors' D-League affiliate this week. He underwent a right hip arthroscopy to repair a torn labrum on Aug. 20.
The 6-foot-9, 220-pound Looney was selected by the Warriors with the 30th pick in the 2015 NBA draft out of UCLA.
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Post by Gooba on Jan 5, 2016 8:19:40 GMT -5
Wild NBA scheduling betting trend is producing 80 percent winners
By BIG AL MCMORDIE
The NBA season is a little over two months old and there have been little in the way of surprises this year. The top two teams were expected to be the Warriors and Spurs (and they are). And the best team out East was expected to be Cleveland (and it is).
Perhaps the only surprise has been the play of the three other Western Conference semifinalists from last season (Rockets, Clippers and Grizzlies), as each of those teams has struggled. But with three fifths of the season to go, there's more than enough time for teams to get their groove back. Let's take a look at the upcoming week.
Spread watch
Go figure. The Clippers had underwhelmed through the game versus the Lakers on Christmas, in which Blake Griffin tore his left quadriceps tendon. At December 25, the Clippers were 17-13 SU and 10-16-4 ATS and they failed to cover the spread by an average of 2.6 points per game. But, in their five games without their best player, they're a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS and they've covered by an average of 9.9 points in those games.
I'm not ready to proclaim that the Clippers are back to being contenders. After all, the five teams they defeated (Utah, Washington, Charlotte, New Orleans and Philadelphia) have losing records. This week, the Clippers' schedule remains soft, with zero games against winning teams. As they say, timing is everything.
If the Clippers had lost Griffin immediately before a difficult stretch in their schedule, they would have felt his absence much more. As it stands, they've been able to win without him. But this, I believe, sets them up for a loss at Portland Wednesday, given that the Clippers have only covered 22 of their last 63 on the road if they were on a four-game (or better) pointspread win streak.
Total watch
Kyrie Irving returned to the Cleveland Cavaliers' lineup against Philadelphia on December 20. Since then, Cleveland has gone Under the total in seven straight games. The primary reason has been on the defensive end. Cleveland has held its last seven opponents to 89.57 points per game, compared to a defensive average of 96.0 ppg at the time Irving returned.
This week, Cleveland has a home game versus Toronto, prior to going on the road to play the Wizards, T-Wolves and Sixers. Washington has also played its last four (and six of its last seven) games Under the total. The first meeting between the teams this season went Under by 23 points, so that will be a situation to watch.
Injury watch
Stephen Curry missed two full games (at Dallas, at Houston) and most of a third (vs. Denver) last week, due to a bruised lower left leg. His status is day-to-day, so it's unclear if he will be on the hardwood Monday versus Charlotte or Tuesday versus the Lakers.
Should Curry be sidelined, I feel it would be worthwhile to bet against Golden State. He's actually worth more than Las Vegas gave him credit for in the Warriors' two games in Texas last week. In particular, I really like the Charlotte situation Monday, as the Hornets lost their previous game by 19 points to the Thunder and Charlotte has covered five straight off a loss by more than 10 points.
Schedule watch
There's always a lot made of the NBA schedule with regard to back-to-back games, four games in five nights, etc. So much so, that the league made a conscious decision this summer to reduce the number of those situations. But this season, the least rested teams have been an ATM machine at the sportsbook.
Unrested teams playing their fifth game in seven nights are a spectacular 28-7-1 ATS this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if these tired team's boast a win percentage at least .133 better than its opponent's win percentage.
This week, we will have four teams fall into our general angle: Golden State (at Lakers, Jan. 5), Toronto (at Philly, Jan. 9), Miami (at Utah, Jan. 9), and Utah (at Lakers, Jan. 10). And the chances are good that all four will also fall into our .133 win percentage differential tightener (check Miami/Utah's win percentages on Jan. 9).
The Golden State situation (at the Lakers) would be my fave of the bunch, given that the Warriors are 20-7-2 ATS their last 29 when playing without rest, while the Lakers are 6-14 ATS their last 20 when playing foes in a five game/seven nights situation.
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Post by Gooba on Jan 5, 2016 8:20:05 GMT -5
NBA Odds: Tuesday, January 5 2016 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews
If you are a Chicago Bulls fan, you have to be thinking: "Here we go again!" Of course I'm talking about an injury to Derrick Rose. He was to have an MRI on his right knee Monday. Rose doesn't think it's anything serious, but at this point you almost have to expect it will be. He tore the medial meniscus in that right knee in November 2013 and then re-tore it in February 2015. And of course he tore the ACL in his left knee in April 2012. Rose has missed Chicago's past three games, but with a hamstring issue. The Bulls might honestly be better off without Rose at this point. By some metrics he has been one of the worst NBA regulars this season. Rose is averaging 14.1 points but shooting just .386 from the field overall and .246 from long range. Teams are playing off him and daring him to shoot jumpers. His knees are so shot that Rose is struggling to finish at the rim these days. Rose has a player efficiency rating of 10.61. That's 252nd in the league and one spot worse than Cleveland's James Jones, who barely even plays. It's really a shame as Rose could have gone down as one of the great point guards ever. Maybe this injury is nothing, but he's clearly never going to be the MVP player he once was.
Knicks at Hawks (-8.5, 204.5)
Final meeting of the season between these two already. The Hawks won the first two but lost 111-97 at Madison Square Garden on Sunday. Arron Afflalo blew up with a season-high 38 points for New York. He was 14-for-17 overall and 7-for-8 from 3-point range. In the previous six games, he was just 20-for-63 from the field (32 percent). The Knicks are 8-17 when he scores fewer than 15 points and 8-2 when he scores 15 or more. Paul Millsap had 19 points, nine rebounds, six assists and five steals for the Hawks. Kyle Korver had 13 points and finally made a 3-pointer. He has been struggling in a big way from long range. He missed 21 straight before connecting in the second half. It was his first game scoring in double digits since Dec. 20.
Key trends: The favorite is 6-2 against the spread in the past eight meetings. The "over/under" is 4-0 in the past four.
Early lean: Hawks and over.
Bucks at Bulls (-7.5, 198)
This is the first of an NBA TV doubleheader and thus should have live betting at sportsbooks. Second of a back-to-back for Milwaukee as it hosted San Antonio on Monday. Giannis Antetokounmpo was going to play despite having some major dental work done Sunday. Chicago won a fourth straight on Sunday, 115-113 in Toronto. Jimmy Butler set a franchise record in scoring 40 points in a half, doing so in the second. Rather hard to believe Michael Jordan never did that; his high was 39 in 1989. Butler did it despite getting a stitch in his mouth after getting elbowed there in the second quarter. The Bulls seem to be adjusting to Coach Fred Hoiberg's offense as they have scored at least 100 points in seven straight. Rose thinks there's a chance he plays here but that obviously depends on the MRI. Right now he's a game-time decision. First meeting of the season between these teams. Bulls won three of four last regular season and then beat the Bucks in a chippy playoff series, clinching in six.
Key trends: The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their past six in Chicago. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings.
Early lean: Bulls and under.
Kings at Mavericks (-4.5, 213)
Sacramento was in Oklahoma City on Monday. The Kings just got back rookie center Willie Cauley-Stein from a long injury absence in a blowout of the Suns on Saturday. Dallas lost a second straight Saturday, 105-98 at home to New Orleans. The Mavs had won six straight at home in the series. Point guard Deron Williams wasn't able to play in the fourth quarter due to left hamstring tightness. He had just recently returned from missing four games with an issue in that hamstring. The Kings beat the visiting Mavs 112-98 in the first meeting this season. Dallas had won the previous six meetings. Don't expect a very warm welcome here for Kings point guard Rajon Rondo as he basically quit on Dallas last season. He and Coach Rick Carlisle were definitely not the best of friends.
Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 7-0 in the previous seven.
Early lean: Mavericks and under.
Warriors at Lakers (TBA)
The NBA TV nightcap. No surprise a TBA here because it's not clear if Steph Curry or Kobe Bryant will play. Golden State hosted Charlotte on Monday and Curry was questionable after he re-injured his shin in Saturday's overtime win over Denver. The Warriors are totally banged up. Leandro Barbosa and Festus Ezeli were both expected to sit again Monday. But the good news is that forward Harrison Barnes was looking good to play vs. the Hornets. He has been out since Dec. 27 with a sprained ankle. The Lakers are on a three-game winning streak, which I wasn't sure they would do this entire season. Although I wouldn't get too excited as that includes wins over sorry Philadelphia and free-falling Phoenix. Kobe has missed the past two with a shoulder injury and he's questionable. L.A. was slaughtered 111-77 at Golden State on Nov. 24 in the only meeting thus far. That was the Warriors' record 16th win to start the season. Curry had 24 points and nine assists. Kobe shot 1-for-14 for just four points, matching the worst shooting performance of his career in a game where he had at least one basket.
Key trends: Warriors are 8-3 in the past 11 meetings. The over is 4-1 in the past five.
Early lean: Have to wait on Curry and to a lesser extent Kobe.
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Post by Gooba on Jan 5, 2016 8:20:35 GMT -5
NBA
Hot teams
-- Hawks won seven of last nine games, but lost to Knicks by 14 on Sunday (6-2 last 8HF).
-- Bulls won their last four games (6-13HF).
-- Sacramento won last two games, by 23-12 points (7-7AU).
Cold teams
-- Knicks lost five of their last seven games (3-6 last 9AU).
-- Bucks lost four of their last six games (5-1 last six AU).
-- Dallas lost last two games, by 7-24 points (8-4HF).
Series records
-- Knicks lost five of last seven games with Atlanta.
-- Bulls won seven of last ten games with Milwaukee.
-- Mavericks won six of last seven games with Sacramento.
-- Golden State is 6-1 in last seven games with Lakers (5-2 against the spread).
Totals
-- Seven of last eight New York-Atlanta games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Milwaukee-Chicago games stayed under.
-- Last seven Sacramento-Dallas games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Golden State-Laker games went over total.
Back/backs
-- Milwaukee is 7-1 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Sacramento is 4-4 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Golden State is 6-2 vs spread it it played night before.
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Post by Gooba on Jan 5, 2016 8:20:53 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
NBA | SACRAMENTO at DALLAS
Play Against - Underdogs (SACRAMENTO) off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
NBA | SACRAMENTO at DALLAS
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) revenging a loss vs opponent, off a home loss against a division rival
65-41 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.3% | 34.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
NBA | GOLDEN STATE at LA LAKERS
Play Against - Road favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (GOLDEN STATE) after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a terrible team (<=25%)
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
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Post by Gooba on Jan 5, 2016 8:21:41 GMT -5
NCAAB
Notes for Tuesday's games..........
Richmond won five of last seven games with Rhode Island, winning two of last three visits here, but losing 66-43 LY. Spiders allowed 81 ppg in losing last two games; St Joe's made 11-21 from arc against 'em Saturday. Richmond is 1-2 in true road games, with 91-82 win at Wake Forest. URI won three of last four games, with two of three wins in OT. Favorites covered five of first seven A-14 games this season.
Wisconsin is 14-1 in its last 15 games with Indiana; this is Badgers' first Big 14 road game without Ryan. Wisconsin won five of last six visits to Indiana; they're 1-1 in true road games, losing by 17 at Oklahoma, taking OT win in Syracuse. Hoosiers won last seven games; they have #2 eFG% in country, shooting 45.1% on arc (#4). Indiana 2-3 vs top 100 teams, beating Creighton/Notre Dame- they're 8-0 at home.
VCU is 3-2 in A-14 games with St Joe's; home side won all three regular season games, teams split pair in A-14 tourney. Rams are 0-5 vs top 75 teams; their best win was over #99 Old Dominion. VCU is shooting 32% on arc, big dropoff from previous years. Hawks won seven in row; they were 11-21 on arc in win over #71 Richmond Saturday, its best win of year- they're 0-2 vs top 50 teams, losing to Florida/Villanova.
Home side won last five Marquette-Providence games; Golden Eagles are 0-2 in last two visits here, losing by 1-11 points. Marquette lost first two Big East games, allowing 81.5 ppg, getting exposed for playing the #336 non-conference schedule. Providence won its last eight games, scoring an average of 84.7 ppg in last three games. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in Big East games this year.
Auburn won six of last seven games with South Carolina, winning three in row here, by 11-16-3 points. Tigers are 3-4 in last seven games after win over Tennessee Saturday; they're shooting 38.5% on arc but only 63.3% on line. Gamecocks are one of two unbeatens left in country; they beat Clemson by 6 in only true road game. Carolina is 8-0 vs teams outside top 100, with all eight wins by 14+ points.
Texas won three of last four games with Kansas State, winning by 3-13 in last two played here; Longhorns are playing at #272 pace- Smart's VCU teams played 80-25-74 pace last three years, so this roster isn't what he is used to coaching. K-State split pair of true road games, losing by 10 at A&M, winning by hoop at Georgia, its only win in four top 100 games, with losses by 10-10-4 points to UNC-A&M-West Virginia.
Oklahoma State won four of last six games with Baylor; Cowboys' 74-65 win here LY ended their 8-game skid at Baylor. This is State's first true road game; they're 0-2 in top 100 games, losing by hoop to Florida, by 10 to Tulsa. Baylor is 9-0 at home, 0-3 on road (all to top 40 teams); Bears lost by 28 at Kansas Saturday when Jayhawks hit 11-19 on arc- they are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #26 Vanderbilt. .
Butler won last three games with DePaul by 33-10-14 points, with two of those three here; Bulldogs lost first two Big East games after starting season 11-1; opponents hit 22-47 from arc in two losses. Blue Demons lost five of last six games; win was over GW by 21, its only win in eight top 100 games. Three of their last five losses were at home. Home dogs are 0-3 vs spread in Big East this season.
Home side won both Clemson-Syracuse ACC games; Tigers lost 57-44 in 2014 visit, beat Orange 66-58 at home LY. Tigers lost three of last four games with losses by 6-23-11 points- they're 0-3 in true road games, 1-4 vs top 100 teams- their best win was over #48 Florida State on Saturday. This is last game of Boeheim's suspension; Orange scored 56 ppg in 0-2 ACC start, losing by 21 at Pitt, 13 at Miami.
Kentucky won eight of last nine games with LSU, winning three of last four visits here- they won 71-69 here LY, losing 87-82 in '14. Wildcats lost by 10 at UCLA in only true road game; they're 3-2 in top 100 games, with other loss to Ohio State on neutral floor. LSU has young team even besides ace freshman Simmons; they won four of last five games, are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 8 at Vanderbilt Saturday.
Creighton lost last four games with Georgetown; they went 0-3 vs Hoyas LY, losing 60-55 in Big East tourney after getting drubbed 67-40 at home. Bluejays are 10-2 vs teams outside top 50; they've got #8 eFG% in US. Georgetown won eight of last ten games after 1- start, scoring 75 ppg in winning first two Big East games. Hoyas have #26 eFG% defense- they hold teams to 40.4% inside the arc.
Arkansas won five of last seven games with Vanderbilt, winning last two meetings 77-75/82-70; Vandy lost last three visits here by 8-23-12 pts. Young Commodores are 3-5 in last eight games after 5-0 start; they're 2-5 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #60 Stony Brook. Arkansas is 1-3 in last four games, with two of three losses in OT; they're making 41.8% on arc (#10) but have #231 eFG% in country, their worst in seven years.
Utah State won eight of last ten games with Boise State; last four were all decided by 6 or less points. Broncos lost seven of last eight visits here- they won 68-63 (-1.5) LY. Aggies are 0-4 vs top 100 teams, with three losses by 10+ points- they lost 70-67 to San Diego State last game. Boise is 1-2 in true road games with loss at Montana; they have #272 eFG% defense, are 2-3 vs top 100 teams, with 74-72 win over #38 Oregon.
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Post by Gooba on Jan 5, 2016 8:22:10 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
CBB | OKLAHOMA ST at BAYLOR
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA ST) off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
CBB | MARQUETTE at PROVIDENCE
Play Against - Any team (PROVIDENCE) after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season
208-339 since 1997. ( 38.0% | 18.0 units )
CBB | TEMPLE at CONNECTICUT
Play Against - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (CONNECTICUT) off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
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Post by Makers on Jan 5, 2016 8:48:15 GMT -5
*KenPom adj Tempo
* Doesn't copy well so I highlighted the rankings
Data through games of Monday, January 4
Tempo Avg. Poss Length Offensive Efficiency Defensive Efficiency
Team ......Conf Adjusted Raw Offense Defense Adjusted Raw Adjusted Raw
The Citadel SC 82.5 1 82.7 1 14.2 5 14.7 1 102.1 176 104.6 147 114.3 345 116.3 339
Green Bay Horz 79.5 2 77.2 7 13.5 2 17.4 240 103.7 151 104.0 157 100.2 123 102.2 167
Marshall CUSA 78.9 3 77.3 6 13.6 3 17.5 250 102.4 170 101.7 185 104.3 220 107.4 256
Maine AE 78.6 4 79.1 2 14.4 8 15.7 11 96.2 293 93.5 307 109.1 306 108.0 266
Nebraska Omaha Sum 78.5 5 77.6 4 14.2 6 16.5 82 104.0 143 106.1 119 102.3 174 101.5 154
Washington P12 78.4 6 78.9 3 13.4 1 16.9 155 102.7 166 105.0 141 97.4 61 94.4 40
Detroit Horz 77.1 7 76.2 10 15.6 33 15.9 20 106.9 92 107.0 98 107.4 288 112.6 317
Oakland Horz 76.4 8 76.2 9 15.1 18 16.3 58 112.5 26 112.9 35 105.2 238 103.0 182
Army Pat 76.1 9 77.4 5 14.4 9 16.4 68 106.7 94 108.8 74 104.8 231 101.6 157
Davidson A10 76.1 10 74.9 14 15.9 54 16.1 32 111.7 31 109.5 65 106.2 259 109.5 282
Elon CAA 76.0 11 75.0 13 15.2 19 16.5 91 104.5 134 104.6 146 106.2 261 106.5 241
Memphis Amer 75.8 12 76.3 8 14.0 4 17.4 231 102.6 167 102.6 172 93.9 19 88.2 6
Arkansas St. SB 75.7 13 75.9 11 15.5 31 16.1 34 101.4 196 100.3 214 103.8 205 103.3 184
Winthrop BSth 75.6 14 75.0 12 14.8 15 17.1 187 102.4 169 104.9 143 108.7 302 107.1 253
LSU SEC 75.0 15 74.9 15 14.4 10 17.2 216 107.8 71 110.5 52 99.3 101 99.6 119
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Post by Makers on Jan 5, 2016 8:53:11 GMT -5
What the above tells ya...The Cits # 1 tempo..
average length of possession 14.13 seconds
Comparison #15 LSU 14.51 seconds
Slowest Tempo? Va. 19.2
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