Super Bowl 50 Odds

Sportsbooks don't want these five teams to win Super Bowl 50
By JASON LOGAN

In the back offices of sportsbooks offshore and in Nevada, two TVs hummed with NFL action this past Sunday, drawing the eyes of just about everyone working on that other side of the counter.

One TV featured the New York Jets battling for their playoff lives against the Buffalo Bills. The other was tuned into the Pittsburgh Steelers’ matchup with the Cleveland Browns. And when the smoke settled on the 1 p.m. Sunday starts, bookmakers puffed out their cheeks with a disappointed sigh and clicked the power button with extra aggravation.

Of course, we all know what happened in those two games: the Jets were upended by former coach Rex Ryan and the Bills, and the Steelers scored 11 points in the fourth quarter to lock themselves into one of the available AFC Wild Card spots, putting sportsbooks on edge as it pertains to their Super Bowl 50 futures markets.

For many books, regardless of their location, Pittsburgh holds the most liability in the Super Bowl 50 odds. The Steelers, one of the most publicly backed teams in the NFL, opened around 20/1 to win the Big Game in Santa Clara on February 7 – before Super Bowl XLIX was even played – and has drawn constant money in the futures market since.

“The Steelers have always been a very big public team on the future book,” Ed Salmons, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, says. “Money came in from the public across the board on the Steelers at almost every number we had up from 30/1 all the way down to 8/1.”

Pittsburgh opened the season with a loss to New England and was 4-4 SU through the first half of the season, losing back-to-back games to Kansas City and Cincinnati in Weeks 7 and 8. The Steelers’ Super Bowl pricing jumped between 30/1 to 40/1 in that span, with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger going down with a knee injury in Week 3 and sitting out the four following games, leaving backups Michael Vick and Landry Jones under center. However, Pittsburgh caught fire in the second half of the schedule, and reeled off a 6-2 SU record to slide into the postseason.

“We had them at 40/1 when they were 2-2 and the Bengals were 4-0. And when the Bengals kept winning, we kept twisting (the Steelers’) odds up and people kept betting them,” Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology tells Covers. “We moved them to 45/1 after that loss to Baltimore (23-20 OT in Week 4) and took a $200 bet right after that, as well as some other smaller bets around that number. And now that they look like a live AFC team, people are still betting them.”

The Black and Yellow, which are 2.5-point road favorites at Cincinnati this weekend, aren’t the only NFL contender threatening to hand books a loss in the Super Bowl 50 futures. Here are a couple other team bookmakers are cheering against this postseason:

Arizona Cardinals

“The Steelers are real bad if they win the Super Bowl but our other liability is with the Cardinals winning the NFC as well as winning the Super Bowl,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management, says. “Nothing major and with their odds so low we won’t book much on them going forward… Now if it’s the Cardinals versus the Steelers in the Super Bowl, we’ll get crushed because all year we offer possible Super Bowl 50 matchups and our liability on those two teams on that particular prop is very significant.”

Arizona opened around 30/1 to win Super Bowl 50 last January and was trimmed down almost every week of the season, finishing with a 13-3 SU record and a Super Bowl 50 price tag of 9/2 – making the Cardinals co-favorites along with New England and Carolina.

In Reno, Nevada, at the Peppermill Resort Spa Casino, sportsbook director Terry Cox is pretty happy with his returns on every other Super Bowl contender’s futures – all but Arizona. The Peppermill opened the Cardinals at 25/1 and took some early money on them, bringing that down to 20/1. The Cardinals were at 8/1 before the season started in August, that when the bulk of that handle came in on Arizona.

“We got bet down all the way to 3/1, co-favorites with the Patriots and Panthers,” Cox said. “We’ve had the most money come in on Arizona and Seattle, and we still have people coming in and asking, ‘Hey, I heard you had Arizona at 25/1?’ You’re a few months too late.”

The Cardinals earned a bye to the Divisional Round and will host the highest-seed winner from the NFC Wild Card Round.

Kansas City Chiefs

One of the biggest sportsbook operators on the Las Vegas Strip has a few NFL teams their rooting against this postseason, but you won’t find too many fans of the Kansas City Chiefs in the backrooms of MGM Resort sportsbooks this month.

“As far as who we’d like to see get knocked out right away, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Kansas City. But it’s the Chiefs we’d like to see get knocked off first,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, said. “We’re not a big loser to Kansas City but we’re not much of a winner either.”

Kansas City opened the season on a 1-5 SU skid, which ballooned their Super Bowl 50 odds from 30/1 to 200/1 at MGM books. The Chiefs proceeded to win 10 straight games to finish the season and grabbed an AFC Wild Card ticket to the tournament, entering the playoffs at 12/1 odds.

“I know there are some tickets out there at 200/1, 100/1, 80/1, 75/1. There are some very excited people out there,” says Stoneback. “We’re a little lower on them compared to everybody else, since we don’t want to take any more money on them. During that 10-game streak, they became a very popular bet.”

The Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites at Houston Saturday.

Seattle Seahawks

The two-time defending NFC champions opened as the Super Bowl 50 favorites back in January 2015, and were sitting around 9/2 entering Week 1 before a 0-2 SU start to the regular season morphed their futures to 8/1 entering Week 3.

The Seahawks were 4-5 SU following a divisional loss to Arizona in Week 10, and some books were dealing Seattle as big as 16/1 to not only make a third straight Super Bowl appearance but win their second title in three years.

“Seattle never got higher than 15/1 with us,” says Simbal. “We took a $2,500 bet on them at 11/1 on September 8 and people just kept betting Seattle.”

Seattle would close the regular season on a 6-1 SU winning run and earn a NFC Wild Card spot, playing at Minnesota as 5.5-point road favorites Sunday. The Seahawks are currently around 5/1 to win Super Bowl 50 at most books.

New England Patriots

Not all sportsbooks have liability on the defending Super Bowl champs. As is the case with most top teams, their odds were so high all season that books aren’t paying out much if they actually do repeat as champs.

In the case of the Patriots, their “Deflategate” scandal made for an interesting offseason and Brady’s possible suspension impacted their preseason futures, leaving some books to root against Belichick & Co. five months removed from that drama.

New England opened around 6/1 and climbed as high as 10/1 with Brady’s status pending at some shops. Once the star QB was cleared, the Pats were 8/1 to start the season, dropping down to 5/2 after starting the schedule 10-0 SU. But two straight losses in Weeks 12 and 13 made the Pats 4/1 and a two-game skid to end the regular season puts them around 9/2 to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champs since they did it in 2003-04 and 2004-05.

“We have a medium-sized liability on New England,” John Lester, senior lines manager, said. “A lot of this was preseason when customers thought that the ‘Deflategate’ investigation would motivate them to play with a chip on their shoulder. In addition, all defending champions always attract action.”

The Patriots have a bye to the Divisional Round and will host the highest-seeded winner out for the Wild Card weekend.