College football opening line report

A betting breakdown of the newly released preseason AP top 25 poll
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

It hits me in different ways and at different times each and every summer. Sometimes it’s as simple as a subtle change in the weather, while other occasions have been more specific, like the booking of a trip to Las Vegas.

Either way, the emotion is always the same: A pleasant tingling at the base of my spine, a twinkle in the eyes, a smile as broad as the Mississippi River. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I’m talking about the realization that the college football season is ready to commence.

This year, that experience occurred Sunday morning with the first release of the Associated Press Top-25. So I quickly cancelled my Sunday brunch and began writing about college football. Why, you ask? Hell, why not? The college football season is almost here!

What follows is the Associated Press Top-25, along with each team’s 2015 record and 2016 National Championship odds, courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. In addition, I’ve wrangled up some notes to keep in mind as we work our way ever so closer to Friday’s season-opener in Australia between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and California Golden Bears.

Get your Saturday BBQs in now because your weekends are soon going to be booked solid.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (14-1, 6/1): Head coach Nick Saban has steered the Tide to a sterling 62-7 mark over the last five seasons, with four National Championship victories since 2009. But there are some concerns about whether or not this roster is deep enough to claim the country’s top prize once again. Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry departed for the Tennessee Titans and with him went 36 percent of Alabama’s offense from last season, as well as 74 percent of the team’s rushing attack. Additionally, only 11 starters return and that’s before you realize that both the Tennessee and LSU games take place on the road this year. Don’t be surprised if the Crimson Tide find themselves on the outside looking in at the four-team playoff come January.

2. Clemson Tigers (14-1, 7/1): Assuming Dabo Swinney’s crew survives their September 3 opener at Auburn, the only major concern on the schedule is a must-see October 29 showdown at Florida State. Highlight reel junior signal-caller Deshaun Watson and seven other starters from the ACC’s top-ranked offense are back, but gone are cornerstone defenders Shaq Lawson (DE), Kevin Dodd (DE), Mackensie Alexander (CB), T.J. Green (FS) and B.J. Goodson (OLB). Still, Watson’s presence and that comfy ACC schedule give the Tigers a tremendous chance of earning a second consecutive playoff berth.

3. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2, 10/1): Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: “Oklahoma is loaded and blah, blah, blah.” It’s the same narrative every August when it comes to Bob Stoops and the Sooners, who rarely live up to their preseason billing and often fold up shop once they get outside the pudding-soft Big 12 Conference. Yeah, quarterback Baker Mayfield and 13 other starters are back and, yes, the Big 12 Conference will offer little, if any, resistance this season. But “Big Game” Bob has to face Houston and Ohio State within the first three games of the season. Even if he survives, the four-team playoff will no doubt once again eat the Sooners alive.

4. Florida State Seminoles (10-3, 7/1): Led by First-Team All-American and Jim Brown Award winner Dalvin Cook (1,691 rushing yards in 2015, 6th in NCAA), big things are expected in Tallahassee this fall. But the season-opener against Ole Miss in Orlando on September 5 recently got much more interesting after senior starting quarterback Sean Maguire broke his foot last week (surgery on Monday, expected to miss four weeks), which opened the door for redshirt freshman Deondre Francois to lead the FSU charge out of the gate. Assuming the Seminoles survive, the schedule sets up nicely with North Carolina, Clemson and Florida all traveling to Doak Campbell Stadium in 2016. Put that October 29 matchup with Clemson on your schedule ASAP.

5. LSU Tigers (9-3, 8/1): Remember when head coach Les Miles was almost fired last season? All he’s done since then is land a top-3 recruiting class and a spot in the Associated Press Preseason Top-5. The Tigers will do it like they always have in 2016, which means a healthy dose of Heisman hopeful Leonard Fournette between the tackles and suffocating, fly-to-the-football defense. 17 starters, including quarterback Brandon Harris, are back and the Alabama game takes place in Baton Rouge this year. But first, the Tigers will have to get past Wisconsin in the season opener (at Green Bay). This team has all the makings of a final four participant.

6. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1, 8/1): When Urban Meyer is your head coach and the experienced J.T. Barrett is lining up under center, you can’t help but put Ohio State in your top-10. But I don’t see it for the Buckeyes this season. Only six starters are back thanks to a mass exodus of talent that includes NFL first-round picks Joey Bosa (DE), Ezekiel Elliott (RB), Eli Apple (CB), Taylor Decker (OT) and Darron Lee (LB), not to mention other key contributors like Braxton Miller (WR), Vonn Bell (FS) and Michael Thomas (WR). September 17 at Oklahoma, November 19 at Michigan State and November 29 vs. Michigan all loom large.

7. Michigan Wolverines (10-3, 8/1): From 5-7 under former head coach Brady Hoke in 2014 to 10-3 in Jim Harbaugh’s first year on the job, it’s easy to see why the betting public loves the Wolverines this season. Harbaugh has 14 starters back from last year’s Citrus Bowl-winning squad, but all eyes are currently fixated on the quarterback battle between John O’Korn and Wilton Speight, who combined to throw just 25 passes last season (all Speight, as O’Korn transferred from Houston). Expect inflated point spreads for the Wolverines early in the 2016 campaign.

8. Stanford Cardinal (12-2, 25/1): Head coach David Shaw runs one of the most buttoned-up programs in the country, but he and the Cardinal will face the firing squad early during a five-week stretch that commences September 17 with a home showdown against USC before back-to-back road dates at UCLA and Washington. From there, it’s a quick return to The Farm for a matchup with high-flying Washington State before hitting the road once again to face Notre Dame.

9. Tennessee Volunteers (9-4, 12/1): It’s now or never for fourth-year head coach Butch Jones and a Tennessee program that returns 17 starters including senior signal-caller Joshua Dobbs. The sharps jumped on the Volunteers as soon as the odds hit the board and for good reason: The schedule sets up very nicely with the exception of the following three-week stretch: at Georgia (10/1), at Texas A&M (10/8), vs. Alabama (10/15). Remember, the Vols pushed the Crimson Tide to the brink in a 19-14 loss at Bryant-Denny Stadium last October. But is Jones capable of leading this once-storied program back to the top of the SEC?

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-3, 20/1): It was a wild weekend for the Irish as six players were arrested over two separate incidents, which culminated Sunday with head coach Brian Kelly dismissing senior safety Max Redmond from the football team and imposing an indefinite suspension on senior cornerback Devin Butler. This mess comes on the heels of the announcement that Kelly will utilize a two-quarterback system featuring sophomore DeShone Kizer and senior Malik Zaire for the season-opener at Texas on September 4. Other than those two concerns, coupled with showdowns against Michigan State, Stanford, Miami and USC, all is well in the land of the Fighting Irish!

11. Mississippi Rebels (10-3, 40/1): There’s a really good reason why Ole Miss moved from 20/1 to win this season’s National Championship to 40/1. Yes, stud signal-caller Chad Kelly is back under center for the Rebels, but Mississippi will have to challenge Florida State (in Orlando), Alabama and Georgia all within the first four games of the season. Assuming head coach Hugh Freeze and his ten returning starters survive September, road dates at LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M await later in the season. With WR Laquon Treadwell, DE Robert Nkemdiche and OT Laremy Tunsil now among the professional ranks, Ole Miss will have their hands full early and often in 2016.

12. Michigan State Spartans (12-2, 40/1): Head coach Mark Dantonio has guided Sparty to double-digit win totals in five of the last six seasons, but Michigan State faces a tough challenge in replacing the school’s all-time winningest quarterback in Connor Cook. In addition to losing Cook to the NFL, only nine starters are back from last year’s playoff team to contend with a schedule that features home showdowns with Wisconsin, BYU, Michigan and Ohio State, as well as road dates with Notre Dame and Penn State. As per usual, don’t be surprised when Dantonio exceeds this year’s moderate expectations.

13. TCU Horned Frogs (11-2, 30/1): Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill is set to step in at quarterback for 2014 Big 12 Player of the Year Trevone Boykin, but gone are wide receivers Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee from last year’s pass-catching platoon. In fact, only three starters return from a 2015 TCU offense that ranked third in the Big 12 in total yardage behind only Baylor and Texas Tech. A preseason rank of No. 13 along with title odds of 30/1 may be a bit optimistic for a program that will host Arkansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State this season while traveling to West Virginia and Texas.

14. Washington Huskies (7-6, 30/1): The ultimate sleeper pick for 2016. You know how a great head coach like Jim Harbaugh takes over at a Power 5 program and then everybody says, “Just give him three years to get his recruits in there and then they are going to dominate”? Well, this is Year 3 at Washington for former Boise State magician Chris Petersen, who returns 15 starters including sophomore quarterback Jake Browning. Not only that, but the schedule features just one daunting road date (10/8 at Oregon) and no matchup with quarterback Josh Rosen and UCLA. Believe it or not, Washington and All-World free safety Budda Baker are legitimate contenders for the college football playoff.

15. Houston Cougars (13-1, 80/1): Former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman worked a miracle with the Cougars in his first year on the job last season with a headline-grabbing 13-1 record that included both a conference title and a 38-24 upset win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl. But this time around, Herman and the Cougars won’t be able to sneak up on anybody. Houston has to contend with a season-opener against Oklahoma along with the loss of six offensive starters, but the upside is that dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is back for another spin.

16. UCLA Bruins (8-5, 60/1): The Bruins boast a legitimate threat for the Heisman Trophy in former 5-star quarterback recruit Josh Rosen (3,670 passing yards, 23 TD, 11 INT in 2015) and return eight starters on the defensive side of the ball, but linebacker Miles Jack and 1,300-yard rusher Paul Perkins are gone, which will make contending in a loaded Pac-12 conference all the more daunting. UCLA is a tough team to handicap because they have the ability to threaten double-digit wins, but sometimes show a lack of focus that could result in six losses. The season-opener at Texas A&M should prove to be a good litmus test.

17. Iowa Hawkeyes (12-2, 60/1): 13 starters are back from Iowa’s first-ever 12-win squad, including integral playmakers in quarterback C.J. Beathard and future first-round draft pick and Jim Thorpe Award winner CB Desmond King. The Michigan and Nebraska games take place in Iowa City while the Penn State game occurs in Happy Valley. Outside of that, there’s no sign of Michigan State or Ohio State on the schedule, so don’t be surprised when Iowa hits the double-digit win mark once again.

18. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3, 25/1): When breaking down Georgia in the past, it was a simple as slating the Bulldogs in for nine or ten wins and then making a mention about head coach Mark Richt’s inability to win the big game. But Richt is now in Miami attempting to return the Hurricanes to prominence, so in steps former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart to try and take Georgia to the next level. 13 starters return including one of the country’s best running backs in Nick Chubb (1,547 yards, 14 TDs in 2015) and the Bulldogs have the luxury of avoiding both Alabama and LSU on the schedule. Even better, Tennessee and Auburn must travel to Athens this season, so Smart could have Georgia back in the national spotlight quicker than some expect.

19. Louisville Cardinals (8-5, 60/1): 17 starters (t-most in ACC) are back from a squad that went 6-1 over its final seven games last season, which includes a win over Texas A&M in the Music City Bowl where quarterback Lamar Jackson rolled up 227 passing yards to go along with his 226 rushing yards. But a schedule that features a home game against Florida State as well as road dates at Clemson and Houston could be enough to keep Bobby Petrino’s program from finishing anything better than third in the Atlantic Division.

20. USC Trojans (8-6, 30/1): Clay Helton’s first full year as the head coach at Southern California comes complete with a roster oozing 5-star talent, including the return of ten offensive starters. The problem? Well, let’s start with the fact that junior quarterback Max Browne has thrown a grand total of just 19 passes during his limited collegiate career. That’s not exactly a recipe for success when your schedule kicks-off in Arlington on September 3 against defending champion Alabama before hitting the road yet again two weeks later to challenge Christian McCaffrey and Stanford. Throw in daunting road dates with Washington and UCLA, as well as home games against Oregon and Notre Dame and you’ve got a Trojan team that will experience several highs and lows this season.

21. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-3, 80/1): Nine starters return to an offense that is now joined by Stanford transfer RB Barry Sanders (yeah, you read that right), so junior quarterback Mason Rudolph should have no problems building upon an electric 2015 campaign that featured 3,770 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. But how excited can you get about a program that moved all the way from 40/1 to 80/1 to win this season’s National Championship?

22. North Carolina Tar Heels (11-3, 100/1): Head coach Larry Fedora finally broke through in Year 4 with the Tar Heels as North Carolina posted an impressive 11-3 record that included a 45-37 loss to Clemson in which UNC took Deshaun Watson and company right down to the wire. 14 starters are back, but North Carolina has to contend with Georgia in its season-opener before heading to Florida State four weeks later. Look for defensive coordinator and former Auburn head coach Gene Chizik to take another step forward with this defense in 2016.

23. Baylor Bears (10-3, 50/1): From an opening price of 12/1 to its current price of 50/1, there’s no reason whatsoever to think twice about Baylor in 2016. This program is an absolute disgrace to college football.

24. Oregon Ducks (9-4, 50/1): Now four years removed from the Chip Kelly era, it’s starting to feel as if Oregon has lost its place among the country’s elite programs. Only ten starters return from a 9-4 club that will once again roll with a FCS transfer at quarterback in Dakota Prukop, who was recruited by both Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh. Oregon gets Washington and Stanford at home, but will have to travel to face Nebraska, USC and Utah.

25. Florida Gators (10-4, 50/1): After winning just 11 total games in 2013 and 2014 combined, head coach Jim McElwain guided the Gators to both a ten-win season and SEC Championship game appearance in just his first year on the job. New signal-caller Luke Del Rio (son of Oakland Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio) will have three games (vs. Massachusetts, vs. Kentucky, vs. North Texas) to get his feet wet before traveling to Knoxville to challenge a loaded Tennessee squad. Two weeks later and it’s a home date with LSU and who can forget about the annual in-state showdown with hated rival Florida State (at Tallahassee)? The defense is as good as they come, but the offense will need to take a big step forward if the Gators have any hope of returning to Atlanta for another shot at the SEC Championship.

Other’s receiving votes: Miami (159), Texas A&M (81), Utah (74), Washington State (68), Boise State (49), San Diego State (46), Wisconsin (42), Auburn (22), Pittsburgh (15), Arkansas (14), Texas (12), Nebraska (11), Navy (8), Northwestern (5), Western Kentucky (4), South Florida (2), Toledo (2).

Team to keep an eye on: SAN DIEGO STATE (11-3, 1000/1): They’ll finish the season in the top-25 thanks, in large part, to one of the country’s most ferocious rushing attacks led by 5-8, 180-pound senior Donnel Pumphrey, who has amassed an FBS-best 4,272 yards on the ground since 2013. Last year’s nine-game winning streak was no joke. The Aztecs are for real.