Post by Gooba on Aug 23, 2016 5:19:35 GMT -5
'Defense Rules in September'
NFL regular season fast approaching time to start planning betting strategies. The numbers show that defense is generally ahead of offense in the first week, with 'Under' prevailing as offenses works to get themselves in synch. A dive into our trusty NFL football database confirms the thought. Since the 2000 campaign, the O/U in week one is 117-135-2 with an average combined score of 41.6 points/game. The rest of September tilts the O/U is 304-291-8 with a combined score of 43.2 PPG.
The next query looking at Week-One games deemed to be high scoring, that is ones where the betting market had the O/U at =>45 the 'Under' hit at a 58.7% clip (30-44-1 O/U). What really got juices flowing in the analysis was the final query adding one more parameter which was looking for what the betting market perceived as a close contest. That is, games in which the spread was 3.5 or less. To that end the 'Under' results were a sparkling 21-6 (77.8%) with a combined 39.0 points/game.
There-in lies a lucrative 'Total System' to kick off the campaign, 'Play-Under' in any Week-one contest where the total is set at =>45 and the spread is 3.5 or less. Keep in mind, JOE Q public likes the 'Over', oddsmakers adjusts accordingly and the astute player can profit nicely going against-the-grain.
Good luck opening week with Bucs-Falcons (3.0, 47.5), Raiders-Saints (1.0, 50.5), Giants-Cowboys (3.5, 49.0) - Spreads, Totals are as of August 20, 2016
NFL regular season fast approaching time to start planning betting strategies. The numbers show that defense is generally ahead of offense in the first week, with 'Under' prevailing as offenses works to get themselves in synch. A dive into our trusty NFL football database confirms the thought. Since the 2000 campaign, the O/U in week one is 117-135-2 with an average combined score of 41.6 points/game. The rest of September tilts the O/U is 304-291-8 with a combined score of 43.2 PPG.
The next query looking at Week-One games deemed to be high scoring, that is ones where the betting market had the O/U at =>45 the 'Under' hit at a 58.7% clip (30-44-1 O/U). What really got juices flowing in the analysis was the final query adding one more parameter which was looking for what the betting market perceived as a close contest. That is, games in which the spread was 3.5 or less. To that end the 'Under' results were a sparkling 21-6 (77.8%) with a combined 39.0 points/game.
There-in lies a lucrative 'Total System' to kick off the campaign, 'Play-Under' in any Week-one contest where the total is set at =>45 and the spread is 3.5 or less. Keep in mind, JOE Q public likes the 'Over', oddsmakers adjusts accordingly and the astute player can profit nicely going against-the-grain.
Good luck opening week with Bucs-Falcons (3.0, 47.5), Raiders-Saints (1.0, 50.5), Giants-Cowboys (3.5, 49.0) - Spreads, Totals are as of August 20, 2016
