|
|
Post by Gooba on Aug 24, 2016 6:37:08 GMT -5
Week 3 Preseason Trends
By Marc Lawrence
Week 3 of the NFL Preseason kicks off Thursday and concludes Sunday with 16 games on tap.
The third week is often called the "Dress Rehearsal" week as teams are expected to give extra minutes to starting units.
Handicapping exhibitions isn’t easy but veteran NFL Handicapper Marc Lawrence is here to help again as he breaks down Game 3 records of the preseason.
Looking at the below table from Lawrence’s PLAYBOOK magazine, you can view the Against the Spread records for all 32 teams from 1983.
Along with the overall ATS marks, Lawrence has identified Most Recent ATS trends for each team as well.
Best Game 3 Overall ATS Records (Week 3 Opponent)
New York Jets 21-11 (vs. N.Y. Giants)
Seattle Seahawks 24-9 (vs. Dallas)
San Francisco 49ers 20-13 (vs. Green Bay)
New England Patriots 19-13 (at Carolina)
Worst Game 3 Overall ATS Records (Week 3 Opponent)
Oakland Raiders 9-23 (vs. Tennessee)
Chicago Bears 13-20 (vs. Kansas City)
Dallas Cowboys 10-21 (at Seattle)
Most Recent Game 3 ATS Trends to Watch (Week 3 Opponent)
-- Oakland Raiders 1-7 ATS last eight (vs. Tennessee)
-- Philadelphia Eagles 6-0 last six (at Indianapolis)
-- Miami Dolphins 0-5 last five (vs. Atlanta from Orlando)
-- Detroit Lions 6-2 last eight (at Baltimore)
-- Washington Redskins 8-1 last nine (vs. Buffalo)
-- Kansas City Chiefs 2-7 last nine (at Chicago)
Listed below are all of the Game 3 ATS Preseason Trends for all 32 NFL teams.
Game 3 ATS Preseason Record (1983-2015)
Team ATS Record Most Recent ATS Trend
Arizona Cardinals 15-17 1-3
Atlanta Falcons 19-13 6-3
Baltimore Ravens 17-16 0-1
Buffalo Bills 17-15 1-3
Carolina Panthers 9-11 0-2
Chicago Bears 13-20 0-2
Cincinnati Bengals 14-18 2-0
Cleveland Browns 8-9 1-5
Dallas Cowboys 10-21 0-3
Denver Broncos 13-18 1-4
Detroit Lions 16-17 6-2
Green Bay Packers 16-15 0-1
Houston Texans 7-7 2-0
Indianapolis Colts 19-14 1-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 13-8 1-4
Kansas City Chiefs 14-17 2-7
Los Angeles Rams 18-14 7-1
Miami Dolphins 17-14 0-5
Minnesota Vikings 15-17 2-0
New England Patriots 19-13 2-0
New Orleans Saints 16-16 7-2
New York Giants 12-20 1-6
New York Jets 21-11 1-0
Oakland Raiders 9-23 1-7
Philadelphia Eagles 18-15 6-0
Pittsburgh Steelers 14-18 1-0
San Diego Chargers 18-12 3-1
San Francisco 49ers 20-13 7-2
Seattle Seahawks 24-9 4-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-13 4-1
Tennessee Titans 19-14 3-1
Washington Redskins 18-15 8-1
|
|
|
|
Post by Gooba on Aug 24, 2016 6:37:55 GMT -5
'Dress Rehearsal'
This week is the closest thing to a regular season game teams play during August. With games spread across Thursday to Sunday both fans and those with a penchant towards sports gaming should be in for an entertaining weekend of football.
Preseason results don’t count for anything in the end, but any NFL head coach should be somewhat concerned if his team is winless at this stage and should have troops play with a lot more urgency as this is really the last chance to ‘redeem’ themselves since Week Four usually involves just keeping everyone healthy.
On the flip side, any NFL head coach who's team is off to a perfect start is usually happy with overall performance and may very well have squads take their foot off the gas pedal and/or limit starters earlier than normal.
At this juncture there are eight winless, eight perfect teams heading into dress rehearsal week. So, do NFLx sports bettors side with the winless or the unblemished ?? History would suggest winless teams as this group has posted a 22-17 ATS record the past five years with those wearing road jerseys the best bets at 13-4 ATS. As for the flawless squads, you back them at some risk. The past five practice seasons teams with back-2-back wins heading into WK3 are just 19-18 ATS split betweem 6-8 ATS in front of a friendly crowd, 13-10 ATS in unfriendly territory.
|
|
|
|
Post by Gooba on Aug 25, 2016 5:56:35 GMT -5
Thursday's Preseason Tips
Falcons at Dolphins (-2 ½, 43 ½) – NBC, 8:00 PM ET
(Game played at Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL)
Atlanta
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Sean Renfree, Matt Simms
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: D. Orlando Ledbetter
Atlanta improved to 2-0 both straight up and against the spread in the preseason last Thursday as it dropped Cleveland 24-13 as a two-point road underdog. Even though the margin was only 11 points, the Falcons racked up 498 offensive yards and an eye-opening 31 first downs on the Browns while dominating the time of possession (39:59). If it wasn’t for a pair of RG3 deep touchdown bombs for Cleveland, this game would’ve looked much worse.
Atlanta is averaging 428.5 yards per game offensively in the preseason, which is ranked first in the NFL. The team has converted 48 percent of its third downs and only turned the ball over twice. Defensively, the Falcons haven’t created a turnover in either of their first two exhibitions but the unit has been stout with just 238.5 YPG.
Despite winning last week at Cleveland, the Falcons have recently struggled in road exhibition games. Including the Week 2 result, Atlanta is 3-9 SU (25%) in its last 12 as preseason visitors but it has managed to cover six of those games. Atlanta owns a 19-13 record in Game 3 of the preseason and is 6-3 in the last nine seasons, according to Marc Lawrence.
Miami
Head Coach: Adam Gase (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Brandon Doughty (Rookie), Zac Dysert
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Chris Perkins
After cruising past the Giants 27-10 in Week 1, the Dolphins were humbled 41-14 by the Cowboys. The defense was diced up for 433 total yards and that’s been a common theme this August. Miami’s run defense has looked awful in the preseason, surrendering 164 YPG and four rushing touchdowns in two games.
Fortunately, the first-team offense under quarterback Ryan Tannehill (162 yards, 2 TDs) looked very sharp. The unit had four possessions with Tannehill and he posted two touchdowns while another drive stalled inside the Dallas five-yard line due to a dropped touchdown pass by his tight end Jordan Cameron.
This game will be played in Orlando since Miami’s stadium is still completing renovations for the upcoming season. It’s technically a home game for the Dolphins and bettors could note that Miami is 4-1 in its last five home exhibitions but all five games were decided by five points or less.
The Dolphins have gone 17-14 overall in Game 3 since 1983 and are 0-5 the last five years.
Cowboys at Seahawks (-6, 44 ½) - NFL Network, 10:00 p.m. ET
(Joined in Progress at 11:00 p.m. ET)
Dallas
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (9-14 SU, 8-14-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jameill Showers
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Todd Archer
The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 41-14 victory over Miami last Friday at home. Dallas led 27-14 at the break and outscored the Dolphins 14-0 in the second half. It was the second consecutive preseason game where Dallas scored 20-plus points in the first 30 minutes as it built a 24-7 lead over Los Angeles in Week 1 of the preseason.
Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott impressed in Week 1 versus the Rams (10-of-12, 139 yards, 2 TDs) and followed up that effort by accounting for four touchdowns in Week 2 versus the Dolphins. Tony Romo is expected to receive more minutes in Game 3 which will leave the clean-up duty to Prescott.
Including the loss at Los Angeles in Week 1 of the preseason, the Cowboys have dropped eight straight road games (2-6 ATS) in the preseason. The defense has surrendered 22.3 PPG during this span and this year’s unit hasn’t looked sharp in their two exhibitions, allowing 343.5 yards per game.
Dallas has been one of the best fades in Game 3 of the preseason (10-21 ATS) and they enter this Thursday with a three-game losing skid.
Wide receiver Dez Bryant (concussion) has been ruled 'out' while rooking running back Ezekiel Elliott is expected to see his first action of the preseason for Dallas.
Seattle
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (27-16 SU, 29-13-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Trevone Boykin, Jake Heaps
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Bob Condotta
The Seahawks fell to 1-1 in the preseason after dropping an 18-11 decision to Minnesota last Saturday as 2 ½-point home favorites. The Vikings posted the game-winning score late on the fourth quarter with an interception return for a touchdown. The ‘under’ (38.5) connected for the second straight preseason game for Seattle.
The Seahawks offense has only managed to post 28 points in two games and none of those points have come from the first-team offense. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said that the starters will play the entire first half and at least one series in the third quarter on Thursday. Running back Thomas Rawls (ankle) is expected to sit out this game.
Despite losing last week to the Vikings, the Seahawks have gone 16-4 in their last 20 preseason games at home and have posted an impressive 14-5-1 ATS mark during this span. Dating back to 1983, Seattle has gone 24-9 ATS in Game 3 of the preseason and is 4-1 ATS the last five seasons.
|
|
|
|
Post by Gooba on Aug 25, 2016 5:57:06 GMT -5
Thursday's NFL Week 3 preseason betting primer and odds
Betting the NFL preseason can be tough. Week 3 of the NFL preseason kicks off Thursday with two games on the slate and we help you out by breaking down some of the best betting tidbits for these matchups.
Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)
* Falcons WR Julio Jones was quoted during an interview about the importance of this game to have the first-team offense "hitting on all cylinders". They are expected to take this game very seriously and the starters will play the entire opening half, and perhaps some of the second half, in order to build off their successful appearance in preseason Week 2.
* It's unknown, at this point, if Dolphins' DE Cameron Wake will make his first appearance in a game since his season-ending Achilles injury on October 29th of last season. He's been participating in training camp and could very well play Thursday in order to get sharp for the regular season - he definitely will not play in preseason Week 4.
* Miami will likely use this game to hammer out their official running back depth chart. Second-year tailback Jay Ajayi and former Pro Bowler Arian Foster are deadlocked in a battle that will have to be settled, to a certain degree, Thursday night against the Falcons.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 44.5)
* Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant will not play Thursday night in Seattle after suffering a concussion in practice. You can expect the Cowboys to shut down Bryant until the start of the regular season. Dez tweeted that he was OK and the Cowboys are just being cautious in their handling of the big man.
* Jerry Jones' star draft pick, RB Ezekiel Elliott, will make his Cowboys debut after sitting out the team's first two preseason games with a tender hamstring. Head coach Jason Garrett said they will ease him back into game action with a limited package of plays. You should also expect Elliott to get some touches in preseason Week 4 in order to get him ready for the regular season.
* Tony Romo, and the rest of the starters, will play the entire first half and perhaps a series or two into the third quarter. That means less time for rookie quarterback Dak Prescott to take the NFL by storm with his preseason performance.
* Seahawks' likely starting running back Thomas Rawls will not play Thursday as he is still recovering from offseason ankle surgery. Head coach Pete Carroll stated that Rawls will be ready for their regular season opener and he may be made available for preseason Week 4 for a couple of touches to get his rythm back.
* Safety Kam Chancellor, defensive tackle Jordan Hill, rookie running back C.J. Prosise will all make their season debuts for the Hawks agaisnt Dallas.
* Seattle's starting offense has looked bad in the opening two preseason games and will play well into the second half Thursday night in their final attempt to get rolling for the regular season
|
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Aug 28, 2016 10:00:20 GMT -5
Chargers at Vikings (-4, 41½)
San Diego
Head Coach: Mike McCoy (6-8 SU, 8-5-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Mike Bercovici (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Michael Gehlken
Rivers sat out San Diego’s second preseason game, as the Lightning Bolts scored a defensive touchdown and kicked four field goals in a 19-7 victory over the Cardinals last week. San Diego’s rushing attack was anything but by accumulating 46 yards on 27 carries, including 18 yards on three attempts from Melvin Gordon. Rivers and Gordon hooked up on San Diego’s only offensive touchdown of the preseason in a Week 1 loss at Tennessee. The Chargers’ rushing defense stepped up after allowing 288 yards to the Titans by limiting the Cardinals to 63 yards on the ground.
Minnesota
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Teddy Bridgewater, Shaun Hill, Joel Stave (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Chris Tomasson
The Vikings have been nearly automatic in the preseason under Zimmer, winning all but one game since 2014 in the exhibition season. Adrian Peterson hasn’t played yet in the preseason, as the Vikings’ running back will not see a snap until Minnesota’s season opener at Tennessee. Bridgewater missed last week’s victory at Seattle as the former first round pick will play on Sunday. The Vikings escaped past the Seahawks, 18-11 on a late interception return for a touchdown in spite of racking up 258 yards on offense. Minnesota owns a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record at home under Zimmer in the preseason, while winning both of the “dress rehearsal” contests.
Cardinals at Texans (-1, 41½)
Arizona
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (6-8 SU, 7-6-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Matt Barkley, Jake Coker (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Kent Somers
The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t produced many points through two preseason losses, posting 13 points in defeats to the Raiders and Chargers. Arizona outgained Oakland in the exhibition opener, 383-322, but the Raiders took advantage of three Cardinals’ turnovers. The Cardinals’ defense held the Chargers’ offense out of the end zone last week, but Arizona’s offense put up only 209 yards, including 37 passing from Palmer. Arizona has not been listed as an underdog yet this preseason, but the Cardinals have been successful in this role since 2014 by going 4-0-1 ATS when getting points in the exhibition season.
Houston
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Brandon Weeden
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Aaron Wilson
The Texans look to capitalize off an AFC South title last season as Houston has jumped out to a 2-0 record in the preseason after victories over San Francisco and New Orleans. In last Saturday’s 16-9 triumph over the Saints, Osweiler hit Will Fuller for a 19-yard score for the only touchdown in the game, as the Texans created three takeaways in the win. Since O’Brien took over in 2014, the Texans have cashed the UNDER in nine of 10 preseason contests, while winning both of their Week 3 games, including a 27-13 victory at New Orleans last August.
Bengals at Jaguars (-1½, 43)
Cincinnati
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (29-26 SU, 29-25-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, A.J. McCarron, Keith Wenning, Joe Licata (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jim Owcazarski
After dropping a one-point decision to Minnesota in its preseason opener, Cincinnati rebounded in a big way in last week’s 30-14 rout of Detroit as two-point road underdogs. The Bengals have held each of their first two opponents to 17 points or less, while taking an interception back for a score against the Lions. Cincinnati is riding a 6-2 SU/ATS stretch in the last eight preseason contests, including back-to-back wins in the “dress rehearsal” game.
Jacksonville
Head Coach: Gus Bradley (4-10 SU, 6-8 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Brandon Allen (Rookie), Max Wittek (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ryan O’Halloran
The Jaguars squandered a 10-0 lead in a preseason opening loss to the Jets, while scoring only seven second half points in a 27-21 defeat to Tampa Bay last week. Bortles threw a pair of touchdown passes in limited action against the Buccaneers, but Jacksonville’s offense mustered only 209 yards, while one of their three touchdowns came on a pick-six. The Jags have slumped to a 4-10 preseason record since 2013, including an 0-3 record in Game 3’s.
|
|
