Post by Makers on Sept 2, 2016 5:58:21 GMT -5
sportsbook director at the South Point Casino
Week 1 sharp and public action: “We took a lot of sharp money on Indiana and Minnesota. I opened Indiana -3 and am now up to -10. I opened Minnesota -6.5 and we’re now up to -12.5. There was also a huge move on Georgia State, where I opened Ball St -5.5 before moving all the way to Georgia State -3.5.
“I opened Temple at -21.5 and Army money took that price all the way down to -16.5. UTEP opened at -3.5 and is now up to -9. We’ve received pretty good two-way action on the big games like LSU-Wisconsin, USC-Alabama, Notre Dame-Texas, UCLA-Texas A&M and Mississippi-Florida State. Public and wiseguy money has come in on Houston, Penn State, Ohio State and North Carolina. Oh yeah, the public is all over Washington.”
Which games do you see taking the most public action: “Joe, you know I always like those late games. This week we have two standalone matchups after the Saturday slate. So I would say either Notre Dame-Texas or Mississippi-Florida State. On Saturday, it should be USC-Alabama.”
What’s the biggest bet you’ve booked on this week’s games: “20 dimes on Clemson. I expect a lot more this weekend just like that.”
Which sides/totals will your book be rooting for this weekend: “We definitely have some rooting action: FIU, Oregon State, Ball State, Temple, Kent State, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, LA Tech, Rutgers and Houston, to name a few. As for totals, we need Louisville Over 61, Minnesota Under 51.5, SMU Under 66, UCLA Over 56.5 and Arizona Over 62.”
Who are your favorite “sleeper” teams this season: “I think Nebraska will be greatly improved, with a shot to win the national championship. That’s a very small shot, however.”
Which teams do you feel are the most overrated: “San Diego State, Arizona State, Georgia and Iowa.”
TREND OF THE WEEK
The Fresno State Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS over their last 10 non-conference matchups, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers are 9-3 ATS over their last 12 non-conference matchups. Nebraska is currently a 28-point favorite for Saturday’s home showdown against Fresno State.
BONUS: The Over is 16-4-1 in Alabama’s last 21 games played at a neutral site. The current total for Saturday night’s matchup between the Crimson Tide and USC Trojans is 53.5 points.
BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK
Since these opening weekend lines have been available for months, several games have experienced significant line movement. Here, we will isolate and analyze five big moves.
(THUR) Indiana Hoosiers (-4 to -10.5) at Florida International Golden Panthers: Despite a 2-6 conference record, Indiana was able to cobble together six wins to claim the program’s first postseason berth in seven seasons, which ultimately resulted in a 44-41 overtime loss in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl to Duke.
Six starters are back on offense for a Hoosiers team that is 5-0 ATS over their last five matchups against Conference USA opposition. On the flip side, Florida International head coach Ron Turner is just 10-26 in three seasons at the helm of the Golden Panthers program and returns only five defensive starters from a team that went 5-7 last year.
(THUR) Minnesota Golden Gophers (-8 to -13) vs. Oregon State Beavers: All you need to know here is as follows: Oregon State and first-year head coach Gary Anderson went 0-6 on the road last season, losing by an average of 23.5 points per game.
(SAT) Penn State Nittany Lions (-18 to -22) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: Kent State is just 1-8 ATS over its last nine showdowns with Big Ten opposition, while Penn State is 4-1 ATS over its last five matchups against MAC foes. Note that the Golden Flashes scored a grand total of just 32 points in six road contests last season.
(SAT) UTEP Miners (-3 to -9.5) vs. New Mexico State Aggies: New Mexico State is weak in the trenches and will be without top linebacker Derek Ibekwe and star running back Larry Rose III for this one. In addition, the Aggies are just 7-20 ATS over their last 27 games played in the month of September, while UTEP is 4-0 ATS over their last four showdowns with Sun Belt opposition.
(SAT) Washington Huskies (-21 to -26.5) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: If you haven’t heard it by now, here’s your wakeup call: The Washington Huskies will be a force to be reckoned with in 2016. Former Boise State head coach/mastermind Chris Petersen enters his third season at the helm of a Huskies program that returns 15 starters including sophomore signal caller Jake Browning. Be advised that Rutgers head coach Chris Ash labeled his quarterback platoon “Not game-ready yet,” after the team’s second major scrimmage of fall camp.
PLAYER TO WATCH THIS SEASON
Budda Baker, FS, Washington Huskies (Junior, 5-foot-10, 185 pounds): Baker has started every game but one over the last two seasons and was so good during his freshman campaign that opposing offensive coordinators stayed away from him in 2015. Not only is this kid an absolute terror for opposing offenses, but word on the street is that he’s getting some reps at the wide receiver position on offense as well. A do-it-all playmaker you’ll be seeing a lot of on Sundays in the very near future.
Week 1 sharp and public action: “We took a lot of sharp money on Indiana and Minnesota. I opened Indiana -3 and am now up to -10. I opened Minnesota -6.5 and we’re now up to -12.5. There was also a huge move on Georgia State, where I opened Ball St -5.5 before moving all the way to Georgia State -3.5.
“I opened Temple at -21.5 and Army money took that price all the way down to -16.5. UTEP opened at -3.5 and is now up to -9. We’ve received pretty good two-way action on the big games like LSU-Wisconsin, USC-Alabama, Notre Dame-Texas, UCLA-Texas A&M and Mississippi-Florida State. Public and wiseguy money has come in on Houston, Penn State, Ohio State and North Carolina. Oh yeah, the public is all over Washington.”
Which games do you see taking the most public action: “Joe, you know I always like those late games. This week we have two standalone matchups after the Saturday slate. So I would say either Notre Dame-Texas or Mississippi-Florida State. On Saturday, it should be USC-Alabama.”
What’s the biggest bet you’ve booked on this week’s games: “20 dimes on Clemson. I expect a lot more this weekend just like that.”
Which sides/totals will your book be rooting for this weekend: “We definitely have some rooting action: FIU, Oregon State, Ball State, Temple, Kent State, New Mexico State, Mississippi State, LA Tech, Rutgers and Houston, to name a few. As for totals, we need Louisville Over 61, Minnesota Under 51.5, SMU Under 66, UCLA Over 56.5 and Arizona Over 62.”
Who are your favorite “sleeper” teams this season: “I think Nebraska will be greatly improved, with a shot to win the national championship. That’s a very small shot, however.”
Which teams do you feel are the most overrated: “San Diego State, Arizona State, Georgia and Iowa.”
TREND OF THE WEEK
The Fresno State Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS over their last 10 non-conference matchups, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers are 9-3 ATS over their last 12 non-conference matchups. Nebraska is currently a 28-point favorite for Saturday’s home showdown against Fresno State.
BONUS: The Over is 16-4-1 in Alabama’s last 21 games played at a neutral site. The current total for Saturday night’s matchup between the Crimson Tide and USC Trojans is 53.5 points.
BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK
Since these opening weekend lines have been available for months, several games have experienced significant line movement. Here, we will isolate and analyze five big moves.
(THUR) Indiana Hoosiers (-4 to -10.5) at Florida International Golden Panthers: Despite a 2-6 conference record, Indiana was able to cobble together six wins to claim the program’s first postseason berth in seven seasons, which ultimately resulted in a 44-41 overtime loss in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl to Duke.
Six starters are back on offense for a Hoosiers team that is 5-0 ATS over their last five matchups against Conference USA opposition. On the flip side, Florida International head coach Ron Turner is just 10-26 in three seasons at the helm of the Golden Panthers program and returns only five defensive starters from a team that went 5-7 last year.
(THUR) Minnesota Golden Gophers (-8 to -13) vs. Oregon State Beavers: All you need to know here is as follows: Oregon State and first-year head coach Gary Anderson went 0-6 on the road last season, losing by an average of 23.5 points per game.
(SAT) Penn State Nittany Lions (-18 to -22) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: Kent State is just 1-8 ATS over its last nine showdowns with Big Ten opposition, while Penn State is 4-1 ATS over its last five matchups against MAC foes. Note that the Golden Flashes scored a grand total of just 32 points in six road contests last season.
(SAT) UTEP Miners (-3 to -9.5) vs. New Mexico State Aggies: New Mexico State is weak in the trenches and will be without top linebacker Derek Ibekwe and star running back Larry Rose III for this one. In addition, the Aggies are just 7-20 ATS over their last 27 games played in the month of September, while UTEP is 4-0 ATS over their last four showdowns with Sun Belt opposition.
(SAT) Washington Huskies (-21 to -26.5) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: If you haven’t heard it by now, here’s your wakeup call: The Washington Huskies will be a force to be reckoned with in 2016. Former Boise State head coach/mastermind Chris Petersen enters his third season at the helm of a Huskies program that returns 15 starters including sophomore signal caller Jake Browning. Be advised that Rutgers head coach Chris Ash labeled his quarterback platoon “Not game-ready yet,” after the team’s second major scrimmage of fall camp.
PLAYER TO WATCH THIS SEASON
Budda Baker, FS, Washington Huskies (Junior, 5-foot-10, 185 pounds): Baker has started every game but one over the last two seasons and was so good during his freshman campaign that opposing offensive coordinators stayed away from him in 2015. Not only is this kid an absolute terror for opposing offenses, but word on the street is that he’s getting some reps at the wide receiver position on offense as well. A do-it-all playmaker you’ll be seeing a lot of on Sundays in the very near future.