Ole Miss vs. Florida State

Ole Miss vs. Florida State


Ole Miss and Florida State will collide Monday night at the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

As of early Sunday night, most betting shops had FSU installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 59 points. The Rebels were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180). For first-half wagers, the Seminoles were favored by three with a total of 29.5.

FSU returns 11 starters on offense and six on defense. However, one of those starters, QB Sean Maguire, is listed as ‘doubtful’ due to a foot injury sustained in early August. Therefore, redshirt freshman Deondre Francois will get the starting nod at QB.

Francois has one of the nation’s top offensive lines in front of him one of the country’s premier running backs behind him. Dalvin Cook garnered first-team All-American honors last season despite dealing with a nagging hamstring injury for a decent chunk of the year. Cook produced 1,691 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Cook added 24 receptions for 224 yards and one TD.

All of the WRs are back, including the trio of Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield and Jesus Wilson. Rudolph is the best of the bunch, hauling in 59 receptions for 916 yards and seven TDs. Whitfield had 57 catches for 798 yards and six TDs last year, while Wilson brought down 58 balls for 622 yards and three TDs.

FSU’s defense gave up 17.5 points per game in ’15. This unit is led by sophomore strong safety Derwin James, who was selected to the Freshman All-American team after recording 91 tackles, 4.5 sacks, five tackles behind the line and three QB hurries. Senior DE DeMarcus Walker was a first-team All-ACC selection last year when he had 58 tackles, 10.5 sacks, five tackles behind the line, five passes broken up, four QB hurries and one interception.

Jimbo Fisher’s team went 10-3 straight up and 8-5 against the spread in ’15. After racing out to a 6-0 start, the ‘Noles dropped a 22-16 decision at Ga. Tech. The Yellow Jackets blocked a potential game-winning field goal by FSU on the final play of regulation. The kick still went about 20 yards down the field, but a Ga. Tech player scooped it up, caught a couple of good blocks and took it the house for a walk-off TD.

FSU lost again a few weeks later at Clemson, 23-13. Fisher’s squad won its last three regular-season games, which included a 27-2 win at Florida. That run earned the ‘Noles an invite to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta at the Ga. Dome. The result was a 38-24 loss to Houston as a seven-point ‘chalk.’

Ole Miss also finished ’15 with a 10-3 record, going 9-4 ATS. The Rebels started 4-0, including a second straight win over Alabama. They were ranked third in the nation going into Gainesville to face an undefeated Florida team that was ranked No. 25. The Gators jumped all over Ole Miss and dominated from start to finish in a 38-10 victory as 6.5-point home underdogs.

Despite taking another loss to Memphis, Hugh Freeze’s club remained in control of its destiny to win the SEC West and earn a trip to the SEC Championship Game for the first time in school history. But then Arkansas came to Oxford in November.

Ole Miss appeared poised to win the game when Arkansas TE Hunter Henry was going down short of the first-down marker on a 4th-and-25 play in overtime. However, Henry lateraled the ball back and across the field before his knee hit the ground. The ball took a perfect bounce and landed in RB Alex Collins’s hands. He broke a tackle and got a block and then wisely waited for another block before getting the first down in miraculous fashion. Moments later, a face mask penalty kept the Razorbacks’ drive alive and they eventually scored and Brandon Allen’s three-yard run on the two-point conversion gave the Hogs a remarkable 53-52 win.

But Ole Miss would respond with two outstanding wins vs. LSU (38-17) at home and at Mississippi State (38-27) to earn its first Sugar Bowl berth in decades. The Rebels blasted Oklahoma State 48-20 as 8.5-point favorites in New Orleans.

Then on the night of the NFL Draft’s first round, an event that should’ve been a celebration of the accomplishments of Freeze’s tenure while three Rebels were selected instead turned into an embarrassing fiasco. Just minutes before the draft started, Laramy Tunsil’s Instagram account was hacked and a video of Tunsil smoking weed with a gas mask on appeared. Then a text-message exchange between Tunsil and a member of Freeze’s staff was posted to Tunsil’s social-media accounts. The content of the texts revolved around cash payments to Tunsil.

Then during the post-draft interview live on national television, Tunsil was asked about the social-media posts and if it was true that Ole Miss coaches paid him. To this he responded, “I would have to say yes.”

Since then, an NCAA investigation has hovered over the program and all of Oxford. The investigation isn’t complete, so it doesn’t appear any potential sanctions will harm this 2016 team. But it has been a major distraction and incredible public-relations nightmare.

With that said, I would think the Ole Miss players are thrilled to just get on the field and be able to put a tumultuous offseason in the rearview mirror. Although Tunsil, WR Laquon Treadwell and DE Robert Nkemdiche are all gone after being first-round picks, there’s still plenty of talent remaining on the roster.

Chad ‘Swag’ Kelly is back for his senior year after producing a record-breaking season in ’15. Kelly completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 4,042 yards with a 31/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for 500 yards and 10 TDs.

Kelly has one of the SEC’s best TEs in Evan Engram, who had 38 catches for 464 yards and two TDs last season. He has two other veterans to target in Quincy Adeboyejo and Damore’ea Stringfellow. Adeboyejo had 38 receptions for 604 yards and seven TDs in ’15, while Stringfellow had 36 grabs for 503 yards and five TDs.

Leading rusher Jaylen Walton is gone, but the Rebels are set at RB with a pair of experienced players in Akeem Judd and Eugene Brazley. Judd and Brazley had YPC averages of 5.5 and 10.1, respectively.

Ole Miss returns five starters on offense and five on defense. The ’15 ‘D’ allowed 22.6 PPG. Three of the top four tacklers have departed, but the leading tackler is back. That would be LB DeMarquis Gates, who had 76 tackles. Marquis Haynes was a second-team All-SEC selection thanks to 43 tackles, 10 sacks, 6.5 tackles behind the line and eight QB hurries. DBs Tony Bridges and Tony[ Conner are other notable playmakers for this unit.

Senior starting DE Fadol Brown is listed as ‘questionable vs. FSU due to a foot injury. Brown had 32 tackles, one sack, 3.5 tackles behind the line and 10 QB hurries in ’15.

Ole Miss played a neutral-field game for its opener two seasons ago. The Rebels beat Boise State by a 35-13 count as a 10-point favorite at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.

FSU did the same for its opener in ’14, capturing a 37-31 win over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point ‘chalk’ at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. Since 1991, the ‘Noles are 7-0 in season opener played at neutral sites.

During Fisher’s six-year tenure, FSU has won eight of 11 games on a neutral field, but it has limped to a 4-7 spread record. In fact, the ‘Noles have failed to cover the number in four consecutive neutral-site contests.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss owns a 4-1 record both SU and ATS in five games at a neutral venue during Freeze’s five-year tenure.

FSU’s starting center Alec Eberle is ‘questionable’ due to recent issues with migraine headaches.

Monday’s College Football game

Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have*16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts. Last 5+ years, SEC teams are 27-19 vs spread when facing an ACC squad. SEC teams are 4-7 vs spread this weekend; ACC teams are 1-3.