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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:10:03 GMT -5
NCAAF Opening Line Report: After impressive start Michigan faces more big chalk in Week 2
Week 2 of the college football season doesn’t look anything like Week 1. There are no huge matchups of highly rated teams or traditional powers. Many Top 25 games have giant pointspreads. We talk about a few of the opening lines with John Lester, senior lines manager.
No. 10 Tennessee Volunteers (-10) at Virginia Tech Hokies
The Vols were being talked about as potential dark-horse threats to make the College Football Playoff and perhaps make a national title run this year. They sure didn’t look the part in Week 1, needing overtime to nab a 20-13 victory Thursday as a 21.5-point home favorite against Appalachian State of the Sun Belt Conference.
Virginia Tech had an easier time with FCS outfit Liberty, but also failed to cash in a 36-13 home victory Saturday giving 31.5 points.
“I don’t think anyone was impressed with either of these teams in their openers,” Lester said. “This is going to be a bad spot for Tennessee, and I’m sure we’ll see some sharp spread and moneyline plays on the Hokies.”
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 14 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-7)
TCU was underwhelming Saturday in its opener against FCS challenger South Dakota State, trailing 17-7 in the second quarter and ending up in a shootout well into the fourth quarter. The Frogs ultimately prevailed 59-41 as massive 34.5-point home faves.
Arkansas also struggled in Week 1, barely fending off Louisiana Tech 21-20 laying 21 points at home.
“Again, two underwhelming showings from these two in their openers,” Lester said. “But there’s always something to be said for knocking off the rust. If the Razorbacks can control the trenches like they’re supposed to, they could come away with a big victory here.”
Central Florida Knights at No. 8 Michigan Wolverines (-34.5)
The Wolverines, who drew a fair amount of futures action to win this year’s national title, got the 2016 campaign off to a strong start with a 63-3 wipeout of visiting Hawaii on Saturday, easily cashing as a 38-point chalk.
They aren’t favored by quite as much this week, but it’s still another lopsided home affair, this time against Central Florida. The Knights opened the season with a 38-0 victory over FCS squad South Carolina State laying 26 points at home.
“After the utter domination by Michigan in the opener, this is a number we had to be generous with,” Lester said. “Central Florida is certainly a step up from Hawaii, but the square support for Michigan was insane through one week. They’ll bet them here at any number.”
Nevada Wolf Pack at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (no line)
Sportsbooks had to hold off on the opening line for this game, since Notre Dame was playing at Texas late into Sunday night. In that contest, the Fighting Irish rallied from a 31-14 third-quarter deficit but ultimately lost 50-47 in a double-overtime thriller as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Nevada got all it could handle from FCS foe Cal Poly-SLO on Friday night, needing overtime to notch a 30-27 victory while falling miles short as 27.5-point home chalk. So look for a steamed Notre Dame squad to be a hefty chalk in its home opener.
“Again, this will be an inflated number due to the matchup of a marquee program versus a poor team,” Cooley said. “And the public will overreact to Nevada’s struggle against an FCS team in Week 1. We’ll have to see how Notre Dame looks Monday to assess how this number will go.”
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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:10:56 GMT -5
Opening Line Report - Week 2
Analyzing the Bounce-back Factor
After a thrilling opening weekend of college football, replete with marque matchups, major upsets and fantastic finishes, Week 2 doesn’t offer much of an encore. Mismatches abound, and there are a gulf-like point spreads to be found all over the betting board.
The biggest number on the card is Oklahoma laying about 45 points to Louisiana-Monroe. The Sooners, of course, were knocked from their No. 3 national ranking via a 33-23 loss to Houston to get the upset train started.
Notre Dame, UCLA and LSU also face severely overmatched opponents in Week 2 after losing unexpectedly in their season openers.
Handicappers who prescribe to the bounce-back theory better be prepared to pay a premium on these teams. The fact that they’re coming off a loss and in desperate need of a win to avoid going 0-2 and watching their national championship hopes obliterated is factored into the betting lines, said John Avello, vice president of race and sports at The Wynn.
"What I see this week is rebounding," Avello said. "I think you’ll see some teams this week that maybe played a quality team last week and had trouble but will expect to bounce back this week."
The bounce-back factor is indeed built into Avello’s numbers, the first posted each week in Las Vegas on college football.
"It’s in my LSU number, it’s in my Notre Dame number, it’s in my UCLA number," Avello said.
Futures Adjustments
In no sport is a season-opening loss more damaging to a team’s national title chances than college football. With a second loss, it becomes very difficult to make a case for an invitation to the four-team playoff.
There have been significant adjustments, therefore, to the futures odds of LSU (8/1 to 15/1) Oklahoma (12/1 to 20/1), Notre Dame (20/1 to 30/1) and UCL A (60/1 to 100/1) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
LSU is an interesting case. Playing in the SEC, there are scenarios by which a two-loss Tigers team can get into the playoffs.
To SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons, though, nearly doubling LSU’s futures price was less about these viable scenarios and more about how LSU looked against the Badgers.
"LSU took on a ton of future book money – the most money of any team," Salmons said. "They were talkin’ em up like they’re an NFL team, but you watch them, and it’s the same old LSU offense . They just run the ball, they have no quarterback, they play football like it’s 1965.
"It’s hard to believe that team could beat Alabama, playing that kind of style. That’s not the kind of team that beats Alabama. Playing slow, running the ball and all that."
Salmons added, "Realistically, they probably should be a little bit higher (than 15/1). The Wisconsin game is not the game you’d figure they’d lose."
Early Week 2 Line Moves
Here are spreads that moved 2 points or more in the favorite’s direction in the first 24 hours of wagering at The Wynn.
Penn State at Pittsburgh
Opening line: Pitt -4
After 24 hours: Pitt -6
Bookmaker’s take: "Interesting game. It used to be a huge rivalry, and they haven’t played in 16 years," said Salmons. "Penn State has a good chance to beat Pittsburgh. Penn State is being underrated right now."
Tulsa at Ohio State
Opening line: Ohio State -27
After 24 hours: Ohio State -29
UT-San Antonio at Colorado State
Opening line: Colorado State -9.5
After 24 hours: Colorado State -11.5
Idaho at Washington
Opening line: Washington -35
After 24 hours: Washington -37
Middle Tennessee State at Vanderbilt
Opening line: Vanderbilt -3
After 24 hours: Vanderbilt -5.5
Washington State at Boise State
Opening line: Boise State -9.5
After 24 hours: Boise State -12.5
Here are spreads that moved 2 points or more in the underdog’s direction in the first 24 hours of wagering at The Wynn.
Arkansas at TCU
Opening line: TCU -9.5
After 24 hours: TCU -7.5
Central Florida at Michigan
Opening line: Michigan -38
After 24 hours: Michigan -35
UConn at Navy
Opening line: Navy -8
After 24 hours: Navy -5
BYU at Utah
Opening line: Utah -5
After 24 hours: Utah -3
Bookmaker’s take: "BYU owes Utah from (last season’s Las Vegas Bowl), when they were down 35-0 in the first quarter," Salmons said. The Cougars scored 28 straight after that but came up short in the 35-28 loss.
Texas Tech at Arizona State
Opening line: Arizona State -5.5
After 24 hours: Arizona State -3
Bookmaker’s take: Salmons agrees with this move on the Red Raiders. "I think Texas Tech can beat Arizona State," he said.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 6, 2016 5:12:17 GMT -5
NCAAF
Friday’s games
Maryland is 3-2 as road favorite since 2010; Terps (-20) won last meeting with FIU 43-10 back in 2013, outgaining Panthers 576-171. FIU lost 34-10 to Big 14’s Indiana LW, outgained 486-331; IU ran ball for 246 yards. FIU is 6-8 as a home dog under Turner. FIU’s QB has 24 career starts- their whole OL from LY is back. big 14 teams are 7-5 vs spread in last 12 games vs C-USA teams.
Louisville is 4-2 as road favorite under Petrino, but in 11-25-1 in last 37 games as double digit favorite. Syracuse was 40-46/437 passing in an easy win over I-AA Colgate. Louisville scored 70 points LW despite three turnovers; they won five of last six games with Syracuse, covering three of last four; Cardinals are 4-2 in last six visits to Carrier Dome (dogs 5-1 vs spread).
Saturday’s best 13 games
Arkansas (-21) held off La Tech 21-20 LW; yardage was 297-291. Hogs are 7-4 as road underdogs under Bielema (4-0 LY), 8-6 in non-SEC games. TCU held off South Dakota State 59-41 LW; it was 24-all at half. Jackrabbits threw ball for 333 yards. Frogs are 10-2 as home favorites last two years; their new QB is transfer from Texas A&M. SEC teams are 10-9-1 in last 20 games against Big X teams.
Penn State-Pitt are meeting for first time since 2000; Nittany Lions are 0-8 vs spread on road under Franklin- they outgained Kent St LW, 354-279 in game they led 16-13 at half. Pitt beat I-AA team 28-7 but gained only 261 yards. Panthers are 4-7 as home favorites last two years; since ’11, they’re 11-16 in non-league games. Over last decade, PSU is 5-14 as road underdog. Big 14 teams are 8-4-1 vs ACC teams the last two years.
Wake Forest lost its last four games with Duke (0-3-1 vs spread), losing three of four by 7 or less points. Deacons are 6-1 in last seven visits here. Wake beat Tulane 7-3 LW, despite Green Wave outgaining them 280-175; Deacons are 7-9 as road dogs under Clawson. Duke has a new QB; they’re 13-7 as home favorites since 2012 (1-4 LY).
Florida won its last 19 games with Kentucky, but last two years were 36-30/14-9. Wildcats are 5-4 vs spread in last nine visits to the Swamp. Kentucky blew 35-10 lead in home loss to Southern Miss LY; USM ran for 262 yards, had 33 first downs. Wildcats are 7-18 in last 25 games as a road dog. Florida beat UMass 24-7 LW but game was 10-7 in 4th quarter; Gators are 6-15 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Mississippi State lost at home to South Alabama last week; they lost 34-16 (+12) in last meeting with South Carolina, back in 2013. Bulldogs blew 17-0 lead LW, then missed GW FG at gun; they’re 19-12 as home faves under Mullen. Gamecocks won 13-10 at Vandy LW after trailing 10-0 in 4th quarter; they’re 8-6 in last 14 gaes as a road underdog.
Tennessee survived Appalachian State in OT LW; they trailed 13-3 at half- yardage was 319-292. Vols have 17 starters back and QB with 24 starts. Virginia Tech has new coach, new QB but return 15 starters; Hokies are 6-3 as underdogs the last three years. This game is being played at Bristol Motor Speedway; crowd of 150,000 is expected. Last 5+ years, SEC teams are 27-20 vs ACC teams.
Iowa State lost to I-AA Northern Iowa LW; UNI had 232 rushing yards, but Cyclones won last two visits here, in rivalry where road team won last four meetings. Dogs are 10-5 vs spread in series. Iowa jogged over Miami Ohio LW but allowed 449 yards; Hawkeyes are 8-17 vs spread in last 25 games as a home favorite. Over last 10+ years, they’re 13-30 when laying double digits. Last 5+ years, Big X teams are 10-7 vs spread when facing Big 14 teams.
USC got waxed 52-6 by Alabama LW, has Stanford/Utah on deck; how do they react here, vs Utah State team that is 4-6 as road dog under Wells, after being 23-9 as AU the six years before that. Trojans are 8-13 as double digit favorites the last four years, but 8-5 as HFs last two years. Utah State routed a I-AA team last Thursday; this game is more about how USC reacts to last week. Pac-12 teams are 10-5-1 in last 16 games vs Mountain West clubs.
New Mexico won its last four games with New Mexico State, but the dog is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven series games. Lobos won 38-35/27-14 in last two visits here- they’ve run ball for 419 ypg in last four meetings. State is 6-11-2 as home dogs the lst four years; they gave up 289 rushing yards in 38-2 (+10) loss at UTEP LW. Lobos are 2-0-1 as road favorites under Davie, 2-1 as double digit favorites.
Utah won last five games with in-state rival BYU, last of which was 35-28 (-2.5) win in Las Vegas Bowl LY, when Utes almost blew its 35-7 halftime lead. Since 2011, Utes are 11-13 as home favorites. BYU won 18-16 at Arizona LW; Cougars are 9-4 in last 13 games as a road underdog.BYU outgained Arizona 415-328 LW, was +2 in turnovers, still needed a last-minute FG to win.
Washington State opened with loss to I-AA team for second year in row; Coogs are 14-6 as road underdogs under Leach- they are 4-4 as double digit underdogs in Leach era. Boise is 6-7 as home favorite under Harsin, 20-29 since 2008; they threw for 426 yards with no turnovers in easy win at UL-Lafayette LW. Teams last met in 2001. Pac-12 teams are 10-5-1 in last 16 games vs Mountain West clubs.
Texas Tech (+14) upset Arizona State 37-23 in Holiday Bowl three years ago; Red Raiders are 5-5 as road dogs under Kingsbury, 5-6 in non-league games. Tech has more experienced QB here. ASU is 14-9 as home favorite under Graham; they’re 4-8 vs spread in last 12 non-conference games. Both teams whacked I-AA stiffs in tuneups LW. Big X teams are 12-6 vs Pac-12 squads last 5+ years.
San Diego State (+13) lost 35-7 at California LY, outgained 485-325; Aztecs are 7-9 as home favorites last three years- they’re 9-17 in non-league games under Long. Cal won its opener in Australia; Bears are 8-10 as road underdogs under Dykes, 5-3 in last eight non-league games. Pac-12 teams are 10-5-1 in last 16 games vs Mountain West clubs.
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Post by Makers on Sept 6, 2016 5:15:07 GMT -5
Had a circle awaiting the total for UMASS and B.C. BUT 39? Ouch
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Post by fish on Sept 6, 2016 7:58:25 GMT -5
Im watching the WF/Duke total(44)....These two have some history of overs but Wake may be absent with offense this year and Duke may have a qb situation early.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 7, 2016 6:33:45 GMT -5
Why wiseguys are timing these college football bets perfectly in Week 2
By STEVE MERRIL
Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet now
Cincinnati Bearcats (-6.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
This line opened -6 and quickly move to -6.5 at all sportsbooks. Cincinnati backers will look to play this game now before it hits the key number of seven, while Purdue supporters will likely sit and wait.
Cincinnati is in its fourth season under head coach Tommy Tuberville and should contend for an American Athletic Conference title. The offense is young, but is experienced at quarterback and the Bearcats will be motivated after a lackluster 28-7 win versus Tennessee Monroe last week. The strength of this team is a veteran defense that returns eight starters this season.
Purdue's defense wasn’t impressive last week, allowing Eastern Kentucky to score 24 points and gain 398 total yards. The Boilermakers are just 3-30 SU versus FBS opponents under head coach Darrell Hazell, compared to 4-0 versus FCS opponents.
Spread to wait on
Ohio Bobcats (+3) at Kansas Jayhawks
Money quickly came in on Kansas in this game, moving the Jayhawks from 2- point underdogs to 3-point favorites. Based on last week's results, the betting public will probably push this line higher above the key number of three.
Kansas snapped its 15-game losing streak last week with a win over FCS Rhode Island and also got head coach David Beaty his first win after going 0-12 SU last year. However, Kansas is still a team that has gone 3-9 SU or worse in each of its past six seasons. They will now be facing an Ohio team that is expected to contend for the Mid-American Conference title this season.
Ohio will be in a foul mood after losing in triple-overtime as a 17.5-point home favorite versus Texas State last week. The Bobcats failed to convert a two-point conversion in the third overtime session. Ohio held a 630-546 total yards edge in the game, including a 250-106 rushing advantage.
Total to watch
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arizona State Sun Devils (79)
The highest Over/Under line this week opened at 80 and was quickly bet down to 79 total points.
Texas Tech was an explosive offense last season, averaging 45.1 points per game and they scored 69 points last week on 758 total yards in their season debut versus Stephen F. Austin. The question for Texas Tech is a defense that allowed 43.6 points per game last season.
Arizona State is a young offense that returns just four starters this season. The Sun Devils did score 44 points on 456 yards last week versus FCS Northern Arizona, but they will now be stepping up in class versus a high-octane Big 12 opponent this week.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 7, 2016 6:34:30 GMT -5
ACC Report - Week 2
2016 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 0-1 0-1 0-0-1 0-1
Clemson 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1
Duke 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
Florida State 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Georgia Tech 1-0 1-0 0-0-1 0-1
Louisville 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Miami (Fla.) 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
North Carolina 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
North Carolina State 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-0-1
Pittsburgh 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1
Syracuse 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
Virginia 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-0-1
Virginia Tech 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1
Wake Forest 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1
Louisville at Syracuse (Fri. - ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Cardinals look to build upon their 70-14 spanking of Charlotte in the opener. QB Lamar Jackson figured in on eight touchdowns, including six TD strikes, in only one half of work to set conference and school records. The Orange also had a solid performance, opening with a 33-7 win over Colgate, an upper-echelon FCS squad to make head coach Dino Babers successful in his Syracuse debut. Head coach Bobby Petrino has never lost in five tries against the Orange, and Louisville is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. However, the Orange enter as more than a two-touchdown underdog, and the 'dog is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings between these sides.
North Carolina State at East Carolina (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Wolfpack head to the Coastal Plain to battle the Pirates, who plan to offer their in-state rivals 'No Quarter'. Both sides were successful a week ago, as N.C. State won and covered against FCS William & Mary while East Carolina powered past FCS Western Carolina in a 52-7 laugher. The last time these teams met it was East Carolina scoring an important 42-28 win back on Nov. 23, 2013. The Pirates typically get up for games against ACC foes, playing at their best. East Carolina has rattled off five straight wins against ACC opponents, and they have covered in six in row against opponents from the Atlantic Coast Conference, including four straight-up wins as an underdog.
Penn State at Pittsburgh (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Keystone State rivals Penn State and Pitt meet for the first time since Sept. 16, 2000. It is a much anticipated game for both sides, and a very important game for recruiting purposes, too. The Panthers are favored by six points despite the fact they were rather mediocre in a 28-7 win against FCS Villanova. Penn State failed to cover a 24-point number last week, but they were still rather impressive in a 33-13 victory against Kent State of the MAC. The Nittany Lions have struggled againts the number on the road in recent seasons, going 2-13-2 ATS in their past 17 away from Happy Valley while going 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference tilts. The Panthers haven't lit the world afire, either, going 2-8 ATS in their past 10 non-conference battles and 1-7 ATS in their past eight at home. As mentioned, these sides haven't met since 2000. Historically, it is the underdog shining, going 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, but a few of these players were also just learning how to walk and use the toilet the last time these schools played, so that trend is rather meaningless today.
Wake Forest at Duke (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
Wake Forest and Duke took very different paths to victory last weekend. The Demon Deacons managed a 7-3 win against Tulane in their home opener, exhibiting outstanding defense and the same problems on offense as last season. In the Bull City Classic last week against N.C. Central, Duke had no issues on offense, piling up 535 total yards, including 308 rushing yards. The sledding will be much tougher this week against a stout Wake defense. The Blue Devils are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record, and 24-11-1 ATS in their past 36 games overall. Duke has owned this season recently, with the favorite 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings and Wake Forest 0-5 ATS in their past five against Duke.
Florida Atlantic at Miami-Florida (ACC Network, 6:00 p.m.)
Miami is back home at Hard Rock Stadium against another in-state team. They humbled Florida A&M by a 70-3 count last week, while FAU struggled to put away FCS Southern Illinois in their home opener in Boca Raton, 38-30. These two sides met last season, and the Owls hung tough at home into the second half before the Hurricanes pulled away with a solid rushing attack, winning 44-20. Vegas expects a similar result this season, with Miami up to a 24-point favorite. The Owls are 7-2 ATS in their past nine against a team with a winning record, and 13-3 ATS in their past 16 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Miami is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 against Conference USA opponents, but 4-1 ATS in their past five games in the month of September.
North Carolina at Illinois (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m.)
The Tar Heels opened the season with a 33-24 setback in Atlanta against Georgia last weekend, hanging tough into the fourth quarterback before Heisman Trophy candidate RB Nick Chubb took his team on his back. The Illini picked up a 52-3 victory against FCS Murray State, barely breaking a sweat and easily covering a 33-point number. These two sides met each other in Chapel Hill, and it was the Tar Heels coming away with a 48-14 victory as just a touchdown favorite. UNC opened as a 10-point favorite, but it is down to single digits at most shops. UNC is 3-8 ATS in their past 11 non-conference games, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 in September. Illinois is 6-16 ATS in their past 22 following a cover in the previous game.
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee - from Bristol Motor Speedway (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The Hokies and Volunteers are set to meet at Bristol Motor Speedway, and a new college football attendance record is expected with a potential crowd of 150,000. Thunder Valley will definitely live up to its name, but the venue will not be the only interesting thing. Tennessee barely edged Appalachian State in its home opener, escaping with a 20-13 overtime victory in front of a very nervous crowd at Neyland Stadium. Virginia Tech had a much easier time in a 36-13 win over FCS Liberty, but never really threatened to cover the 31 1/2-point number. This line opened as low as Tennesse -9, and has been bet up to as much as Tennessee -11 1/2. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in their past four neutral-site battles, while Virginia Tech is 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine in neutral-site venues. The Hokies are also 5-15-1 ATS in their past 21 in September, and 7-17-2 ATS in their past 26 non-conference tilts.
Virginia at Oregon (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
On the surface this one has the makings of being really ugly, really quickly. Virginia has quarterback uncertainty after an ugly blowout loss at home to FCS Richmond. Oregon opened with a 53-28 win against FCS UC-Davis, but never came close to covering a 48-point number. The Ducks spanked the Cavaliers 59-10 in the most recent meeting Sept. 7, 2013, but that was also with Marcus Mariota, De'Anthony Thomas and a much better offense. The cupboard is definitely not bare in Eugene with Royce Freeman toting the rock and Dakota Prukop slinging it to a bevy of talented young receivers. If the Cavaliers struggled with Richmond's offense, Oregon's multi-talented offense will really give them fits. Jet lag also won't do the Cavs any favors. It might not be 59-10 again, but it could come close.
Other Games
Boston College at Massachusetts (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m.)
Charleston Southern at Florida State (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
Troy at Clemson (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
Mercer at Georgia Tech (ACC Network, 3:00 p.m.)
Other Games -- NOTES
BC enters their game with UMass as a 17-point favorite. They're 11-27 ATS in their past 38 against teams with a losing record. UMass played Florida tough in The Swamp last week, losing 24-7. UMass is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 in September. ... Clemson returns home to face Troy after a road win at Auburn. They're more than a five-touchdown favorite against the Trojans. The Tigers covered their home opener against Wofford last year as a 34-point favorite, and they're 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in their past five home openers, including a 43-19 win and cover against Troy Sept. 3, 2011. ... FSU will face FCS Charleston Southern. While the 'Noles are 6-0 SU in their past six against FCS teams since Sept. 10, 2011, they're 2-3 ATS, including a win and non-cover against the Buccaneers in 2011. ... Georgia Tech is back from Ireland with a win, and now they return home to face FCS Mercer in their home opener. Ga. Tech is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their past seven against FCS foes
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Post by Gooba on Sept 7, 2016 6:35:15 GMT -5
Big 12 Report - Week 2
2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1
Iowa State 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Kansas 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Kansas State 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Oklahoma 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Oklahoma State 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Texas 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Texas Christian 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0
Texas Tech 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
West Virginia 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
Central Michigan at Oklahoma State (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan opened as a 19-point favorite, and the line quickly moved to 21. Oklahoma State side bettors were apparently not impressed by CMU's 49-3 win and cover against Presbyterian last weekend. The Cowboys also pasted an FCS school, walking over Southeast Louisiana by a 61-7 count at Boone Pickens Stadium. These sides met last season in Mount Pleasant, and the Cowboys came away with a 24-13 victory. The Chippewas are 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games overall, and 9-2 ATS in their past 11 road outings. They're also 6-1 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts. The Cowboys covered last week at home, but were 3-4 ATS in seven home outings last season.
Youngstown State at West Virginia (NO TV, 2:00 p.m.)
Youngstown State heads down to Morgantown for a pay day, while the Mountaineers look to build upon their 26-11 opening game win against Missouri. The Penguins of YSU racked up 610 yards of offense in their 45-10 win against Duquesne, but West Virginia and their team speed will be a whole different animal. The Mountaineers enter 7-0 SU against FCS foes over the past six seasons, but they're just 2-5 ATS during that span.
Ohio U. at Kansas (FOX Sports Net, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Ohio was stunned at home against Texas State, falling in 3OT by a 56-54 count despite entering their game as a 17-point favorite. Kansas, a team which was winless in 12 games a year ago, already has a mark in the win column after rolling up a 55-6 win against FCS Rhode Island. The Jayhawks were also 3-9 ATS last season, but they covered against the Rams to get off on the right foot. The Jayhawks opened as a two-point underdog, but are now a three-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. Despite last weekend's shocking loss at home, the Bobcats are 7-1 ATS in their past eight non-conference games, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven in September. Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS in their past five againt the MAC, but 3-10-1 ATS in their past 14 non-conference tilts and 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home.
Southern Methodist at Baylor (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
SMU opened their season with a 34-21 road win at North Texas, covering as a touchdown favorite. Baylor kicked off a new era with a 55-7 win and non-cover against FCS Northwestern State. The Bears still have plenty of offense despite a regime change, but the Mustangs aren't too shabby on offense, either. The Bears are holding steady as a 32-point favorite. They won last season's meeting by a 56-21 score Sept. 4, 2015, but SMU hung on for a cover as a 36-point underdog at home. SMU is 4-1 ATS in their past five non-conference games, but just 7-19-1 ATS in their past 27 against the Big 12. Baylor is 9-4 ATS in their past 13 non-conference battles and 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine in the month of September.
Arkansas at Texas Christian (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)
The Razorbacks and Horned Frogs each struggled at times last week and are lucky to each have a 1-0 record. Arkansas barely scraped by Louisiana Tech at home, 21-20, while TCU allowed FCS South Dakota State to roll up 41 points and 461 total yards, including 333 through the air. The Horned Frogs enter as a 7 1/2-point favorite, looking to improve on their 14-3 ATS mark over the past 17 home games. TCU is also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 non-conference games, and 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games on grass. The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts, and 0-4 ATS in their past four in September. However, they are 7-1 ATS in their past eight against the Big 12 while going 14-6 ATS in their past 20 against teams with a winning overall record.
Texas El-Paso at Texas (Longhorn Network, 7:00 p.m.)
The eyes of Texas were certainly smiling following a thrilling overtime win against Notre Dame Sunday night, vaulting the Longhorns into the Top 25 for the first time during the Charlie Strong era. It will be interesting to see how Texas handles success against a lesser opponent. Will there be a huge dropoff in intensity with a non-marquee opponent, or will Texas remain focused and continue to build? UTEP enters as a four-touchdown underdog despite winning and covering in their opener against New Mexico State last week. The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their past seven overall dating back to last season, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven non-conference games and 4-11 ATS in their past 15 tries against the Big 12. Texas is 10-4 ATS in their past 14 against Conference USA teams, and 4-1 ATS in their past five home outings.
Louisiana-Monroe at Oklahoma (NO TV, 7:00 p.m.)
The WarHawks hit the road for Norman and they will find a very ornery Oklahoma team which was taken down by a powerful Houston squad. ULM won and covered against FCS Southern, 38-21, but facing the Sooners will be a much more daunting task. Vegas expects this game to be a big-time rout, as Oklahoma is installed as a 46-point favorite. ULM is 4-0-1 ATS in their past five non-conference games, while Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in their past four against the Sun Belt Conference and 7-2 ATS in their past nine in the month of September. The total is set at 65, and the 'under' might be the play. The under is 4-1 in ULM's past five against non-conference opponents, and the under is 6-1 in Oklahoma's past seven outside the Big 12.
Iowa State at Iowa (Big Ten, 7:00 p.m.)
Iowa State laid an egg in their opener, falling to FCS Northern Iowa by a 25-20 count. Iowa barely missed covering in a 45-21 win against Miami-Ohio, but their offense was impressive with 212 rushing yards and 404 total yards of output. The Cyclones enter Iowa City 14-5 ATS in their past 19 tries against the Big Ten, but just 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight road games. Still, Iowa State has dominated this series in recent years, at least against the number, going 8-1 ATS in their past nine trips to Iowa City while going 13-5 ATS in the past 18 meetings overall. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this rivalry, which means the 15-point number might be a bit much for Iowa to cover. The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Iowa City, and 8-2-1 in the past 11 meetings overall in this series.
Texas Tech at Arizona State (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m.)
Texas Tech hits the road for Tempe looking to run its record to 2-0. The offense was in top form with a 69-17 win against Stephen F. Austin, covering a 37 1/2-point spread. Arizona State also faced an FCS foe, winning and covering against Northern Arizona in a 44-13 rout. The Red Raiders are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games in the month of September, and they're 3-1-1 ATS in their past five non-conference battles. The Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games dating back to last season, but their cover against NAU was their first in the past seven tries in the month of September. Trends point to the 'over' in this late-night tilt for Texas Tech, as the over is 11-4 in Texas Tech's past 15 games and 16-7 in their past 23 non-conference tilts. However the 'under' is 4-1 in AZ State's past five non-conference games, and 5-0 in the past five games in the month of September.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 7, 2016 6:35:54 GMT -5
Pac-12 Report - Week 2
2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Arizona State 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
California 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0
Colorado 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
Oregon 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0
Oregon State 0-1 0-0 1-0 0-1
Southern California 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0
Stanford 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1
UCLA 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-0-1
Utah 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1
Washington 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0
Washington State 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0
Utah State at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)
USC was embarrassed 52-6 by Alabama in Arlington, Tex. last weekend, and now they return home to face Utah State. They barely got by the Aggies the last time these sides faced each other, winning 17-14 in the Coliseum back on Sept. 21, 2013. Utah State did a little embarrassing of their own, outclassing FCS Weber State by a 45-6 count. They enter as a 16 1/2-point underdog at USC, and the public is jumping on the Trojans and banking on them being extremely angry and to come out with a purpose. The Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games in the month of September, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings. USC is 28-11 ATS in their past 39 games following a straight-up loss, and they're 8-1 ATS in their past nine after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Brigham Young at Utah (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)
BYU scratched out a hard-fought 18-16 win against Arizona last weekend, now they set their sights on another Pac-12 foe. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City, and they're 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings against the rival Utes. The underdog has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this series. Utah was rather lackluster on offense in their opener against FCS Southern Utah, but they pitched a shutout in the 24-0 win. The Utes enter as 3 1/2-point favorites, and the total is set at 45 1/2 points. Based on the defensive effort of both sides, and struggles on offense, the 'under' might be a popular play.
UNLV at UCLA (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)
UNLV scorched FCS Jackson State by a 63-13 count, covering a 40-point number while nearly taking care of the 63 1/2-point total themselves. UCLA looks to pick itself off the mat after a disappointing 31-24 overtime loss at Texas A&M. They fought back to force OT, but could not get over the hump. The total of 55 also pushed in their road opener. UNLV is 5-1 ATS in their past six non-conference battles, but they're 0-4-1 ATS in their past five tries against the Pac-12. For UCLA, they're 12-3 ATS in their past 15 games against Mountain West foes and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games following a non-cover. The 'over' is 14-3 in UNLV's past 17 games, and 4-1 in their past five against the Pac-12. The under is 5-1 in UCLA's past six at home, and 3-1-1 in their past five non-conference battles.
Texas Tech at Arizona State (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m.)
Texas Tech hits the road for Tempe looking to run its record to 2-0. The offense was in top form with a 69-17 win against Stephen F. Austin, covering a 37 1/2-point spread. Arizona State also faced an FCS foe, winning and covering against Northern Arizona in a 44-13 rout. The Red Raiders are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games in the month of September, and they're 3-1-1 ATS in their past five non-conference battles. The Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games dating back to last season, but their cover against NAU was their first in the past seven tries in the month of September. Trends point to the 'over' in this late-night tilt for Texas Tech, as the over is 11-4 in Texas Tech's past 15 games and 16-7 in their past 23 non-conference tilts. However the 'under' is 4-1 in AZ State's past five non-conference games, and 5-0 in the past five games in the month of September.
Washington State at Boise State (ESPN2, 10:15 p.m.)
Washington State was tripped up in their opener by an FCS club for the second consecutive season. Like last season, they hit the road looking for redemption. They rebounded last season at Rutgers by a 37-34 count after falling to Portland State, but this season the task is much more daunting with a trip to the Smurf Turf on the agenda. The Cougs are 4-0 ATS in their past four after a straight-up loss, and they're 7-0 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. However, Washington State is also 0-4-1 ATS in their past five tries against Mountain West opponents. Boise State rolled up an impressive 45-10 win at Louisiana-Lafayette last weekend, and return home where they have been hard to beat. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their past four non-conference games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games in the month of September.
California at San Diego State (CBSSN, 10:30 p.m.)
Cal opened with a 51-31 win down under in Australia against Hawaii back on Aug. 26, and they have had two weeks to get acclimated following the long road trip. They polished off San Diego State 35-7 last Sept. 12, and look for a repeat performance. The Aztecs picked up a 31-0 victory against a solid FCS club from New Hampshire last weekend, and they'll lean upon RB Donnel Pumphrey to try and push aside the Pac-12 visitor. San Diego State is a 7 1/2-point favorite at most shops. Cal hasn't had a lot of luck on the road in past seasons, and they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five dating back to last year. San Diego State is 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 overall, and 3-1-2 ATS in their past six at home. However, they are just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 against the Pac-12, 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine non-conference tilts and 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven in the month of September.
Virginia at Oregon (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
On the surface this one has the makings of being really ugly, really quickly. Virginia has quarterback uncertainty after an ugly blowout loss at home to FCS Richmond. Oregon opened with a 53-28 win against FCS UC-Davis, but never came close to covering a 48-point number. The Ducks spanked the Cavaliers 59-10 in the most recent meeting Sept. 7, 2013, but that was also with Marcus Mariota, De'Anthony Thomas and a much better offense. The cupboard is definitely not bare in Eugene with Royce Freeman toting the rock and Dakota Prukop slinging it to a bevy of talented young receivers. If the Cavaliers struggled with Richmond's offense, Oregon's multi-talented offense will really give them fits. Jet lag also won't do the Cavs any favors. It might not be 59-10 again, but it could come close.
Other Games
Idaho at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m.)
Idaho State at Colorado (NO TV, 5:30 p.m.)
Grambling State at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 10:45 p.m.)
Other Games -- NOTES
Idaho barely scraped by with a win over FCS Montana State last weekend, 20-17. They meet Washington for the first time in nearly seven years, losing 42-23 last time the two faced each other. The Vandals are 1-7 ATS in their past eight in September, and 5-16-1 ATS in their past 22 aginst teams with a winning overall record. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their past five non-confernce games, 5-1 ATS in their past six in September and 4-0 ATS in their past four overall. ... Colorado roughed up rival Colorado State last week, now face FCS Idaho State. After a stunning loss to Sacramento State Sept. 8, 2012, the Buffaloes are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in their past three against FCS squads. ... Arizona opened with an 18-16 setback to BYU, now they get a presumed breather against FCS Grambling State. The Wildcats are 6-0 in their past six against FCS opponents, covering each of the past five dating back to Sept. 12, 2009.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 7, 2016 6:36:49 GMT -5
'College Football Week 2'
Central Florida Knights at Michigan Wolverines September 10, 12:00 EST
Two squads off resounding opening wins meet in Ann Arbor when Michigan Wolverines host Central Florida Knights. Wolverines thrashed Hawaii 63-3 as 38.0 point favorites in Wk1 recording its largest margin of victory since beating Northwestern 69-0 in 1975. The Knights crushed South Carolina State 38-zip covering the 26.0 point spot.
Wolverines off its dominant performance on both sides of the ball are handing Knights 35 points of offense. Tread cautiously, this is dangerous betting territory for Wolverines as they're 3-4 ATS in front of the home audience laying 30.0 or more points, 3-6 ATS in September while Knight's enter on a 19-8 ATS road stretch vs a team with a winning home record. Road dog worth a shot here.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish September 10, 3:30 EST
Fighting Irish dropping its opener at Texas 50-47 as a 3.5-point road favorite look to get back to winning ways when they host Nevada who opened with a 30-27 victory over Cal Poly-SLO but falling miles short as 27.5-point home chalk.
According to current odds the Irish are -28.0 point home favorites. Rather generous, Fighting Irish have not been a peg to hang your hopes on when laying twenty or more at home posting a vig-losing 3-3 mark against the betting line. Fighting Irish are also 0-4 against the number during Brian Kelly's tenure prior to a game against Michigan State.
Best of luck, but above all enjoy the games.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 8, 2016 5:43:10 GMT -5
Tech Trends - Week 2
By Bruce Marshall
Friday, Sept. 9
Matchup Skinny Edge
MARYLAND at FIU...FIU 5-2 SU last seven as host but lost opener vs. Hoosiers. Turner 14-10-2 vs. line since late 2013 but 5-6-2 since LY. Durkin first road game for Terps, who were 7-4 vs. line away for Edsall and Locksley past two years.
Slight to Maryland, based on team trends.
LOUISVILLE at SYRACUSE...Orange 7-1 vs. line at Carrier Dome since LY and 4-0 as home dog, though Cuse has lost and failed to cover last two years vs. 'Ville. Babers 10-3-1 vs. line since LY with BGSU.
Syracuse, based on recent home and Dino spread trends.
Satyrday, Sept. 10
Matchup Skinny Edge
BOSTON COLLEGE at UMASS... UMass 3-5 as dog LY and "under" 11-5 last 16 since late 2014. BC however has been a dismal road favorite for years, just 4-15 in role since 2006, and Eagles 1-4 as chalk LY. Eagles "under" 13-3 last 16.
"Under" and slight to UMass, based on "totals" and team trends.
ARKANSAS at TCU...Old SWC foes! Bielema 9-2 as dog since 2014, 7-2-1 last 10 vs. non-SEC. Frogs 10-3 as home chalk since 2014 but only 2-4 vs. line against non-Big 12 since LY.
Arkansas, based on Bielema dog trends.
RICE at ARMY...Bailiff 2-7-1 vs. line last 10 after WKU loss. Road team however has covered last two years in this series. Owls 2-9-2 as dog since 2014. Army 0-3 as Michie chalk LY.
Slight to Rice, based on series road trend.
OHIO at KANSAS...Solich only 2-6-1 as visiting chalk since 2012, though 12-7-1 overall as chalk since 20013. Jayhawks on 4-11 spread skid since late 2014 and were 1-6 vs. line at Lawrence LY.
Ohio, based on KU woes.
UCF at MICHIGAN...Knights entered 2016 on 2-11 spread skid, and this is first road game for Frost. UCF 2-7 as DD dog past two years but note rotten 2015 and possible distortion, including 0-4 vs. line non-conf. LY. Harbaugh 5-3 as DD chalk since LY.
Slight to Michigan, based on recent UCF woes.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at MISSOURI...Mizzou 3-5 as home chalk during past two years of Pinkel regime. This is Odom home debut, but Tigers were only 1-6 laying DDs past two seasons. EMU 3-3 as DD dog LY and was 3-1 vs. line non-MAC LY.
EMU, based on team trends.
OLD DOMINION at APPALACHIAN STATE...App rolled 49-0 LY. ODU only 8-17 vs. line since 2015. App however only 4-7 as Boone chalk past two years.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.
PENN STATE at PITTSBURGH... James Franklin was 0-5 as dog with Nittany Lions LY and was 1-10 vs. line away from Happy Valley past two seasons. Narduzzi however only 1-5 vs. line at home LY.
Pitt, based on Penn State road woes with Franklin.
CINCINNATI at PURDUE...Hazell 2-7 as Ross-Ade dog past two years, as Boilermakers have fared much better on road since 2014. Tuberville 4-2 as visiting chalk since 2014.
Cincy, based on Purdue home negatives.
BALL STATE at INDIANA...Cards were a very good road dog for most of the Lembo years (12-5 from 2011-14) before fading to 1-4 in role LY, but now 1-0 in role for Neu. IU very middling in almost all spread categories for Wilson.
Ball State, based on extended trends.
ULM at OKLAHOMA...Matt Viator (sounds like a superhero) the new HC for Warhawks. ULM has covered its last three getting 30 or more. OU 1-2 last three years laying 30 or more.
Slight to ULM, based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at OKLAHOMA STATE...Gundy just 5-7 last 12 as DD chalk. Bonamego continued recent CMU dog success in his debut LY, 5-2 as short and Chips now 9-4 in role since 2014. CMU also 5-1 vs. spread last six vs. Non-MAC.
CMU, based on team trends.
AKRON at WISCONSIN...Chryst 3-4 as Madison chalk LY, Badgers 6-8 in role past two years. Bowden covered last five and 8 of last 10 LY and was 5-2 last seven vs. line away from home.
Akron, based on team trends.
NC STATE at EAST CAROLINA...ECU was 1-6 vs. line last seven at home in the Ruffin McNeill era. But Pirates 3-0 as home dog since 2012. NCS however 4-0 as road chalk LY and Doeren 9-3 last 12 as chalk, also 7-01 last 8 vs. spread non-ACC.
NC State, based on team trends.
TULSA at OHIO STATE...Tulsa inside-out deluxe LY for Montgomery, 7-0 vs. line away (1-5 at home)! Meanwhile, Urban Meyer 2-8 last 10 as Big Horseshoe chalk.
Tulsa, based on team trends.
TROY at CLEMSON...Troy 4-1 as road dog for Neal Brown LY, now 10-5-1 as DD dog dating to 2012 and the late part of the Blakeney era. Dabo only 3-4-1 laying DD in 2015 and just 6-6-1 last 13 as Death Valley chalk.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at SOUTH FLORIDA...USF roared down the stretch last season, now 9-1 vs. line last 10 in regular season. Bulls 7-0 vs. spread at Raymond James since LY! NIU however 5-1 as visiting dog since 2014 and 16-4 vs. spread as visitor since 2013.
Slight to USF, based on team trends.
WAKE FOREST at DUKE... Duke has won last four SU in series and is 4-0-1 vs. line last five vs. Deacs. Clawson 3-2 as road dog LY. Cutcliffe recent great Durham chalk mark (12-3 2012-14) faded LY when Blue Devils fell to 1-4 vs. line as home chalk.
Slight to Wake Forest, based on recent trends.
UCONN at NAVY...Mids covering numbers as Annapolis chalk (7-1 in role since LY) and Niumatalolo now 12-5 in role since 2013. Navy now on 14-6 spread run including win and cover at UConn LY. Under Diaco, Huskies just 3-9 vs. spread away from home.
Navy, based on recent trends.
UTEP at TEXAS...Charlie 3-3 as DD chalk past two years. Kugler however only 4-12 as DD dog since taking over at UTEP in 2013, though Miners 9-9 as dog last two years after 0-9 mark in 2013!
Slight to Texas, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at AUBURN...Malzahn just 4-15 vs. spread last 19 since midway in 2014 season. Tigers no covers last 8 as Jordan-Hare chalk. Ark State only 3-5 as dog for Blake Anderson and 2-6 last eight vs. line against non-Belt foes.
Arkansas State, based on recent Malzahn negatives.
GEORGIA STATE at AIR FORCE... After 6-0-1 spread run to close last season, GSU no wins or covers last two. Though Panthers 15-4 as visiting dog since 2013. Falcs 9-3-1 against line at Falcon Stadium since 2014.
Slight to GSU, based on team trends.
UTSA at COLORADO STATE...UTSA has faded since late in the Coker regime, now on 7-16 spread skid. Though one of those covers vs. CSU LY. Bobo was 2-0 as home chalk LY and that has been a good role for Rams lately, now 12-3 as Ft. Collins chalk since 2012 and the McElwain years.
CSU, based on recent UTSA negatives.
KENTUCKY at FLORIDA...No UK SU wins over Florida since 1986, when Jerry Claiborne beat Galen Hall! Gators have covered 8 of last 9 meetings. Stoops just 3-6 as road dog the past two years. McElwain only 1-4 as home chalk for Gators since LY but was still 8-5-1 vs. line overall in 2015 and 29-14-1 last 44 on board since late 2012 with CSU.
Florida, based on series trends.
NEVADA at NOTRE DAME...Pack choked big-time last trip to South Bend with Kaepernick in 2009, losing 35-0. Polian however is 7-1 as dog away from Reno past two seasons, and 5-1 as DD dog that span. Brian Kelly only 2-4 laying DD in 2015, 4-12 in role since 2013.
Nevada, based on team trends.
IDAHO at WASHINGTON...Vandals 10-1 as away dog the past two seasons! Also 4-1 as dog getting 21 or more. Petersen 2-0 laying DD since 2015.
Slight to Idaho, based on Vandal road dog marks.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at ALABAMA...Nick was just 2-5 as home chalk LY and 3-7 last 10 in role. Bama just 10-10 laying DD since 2014, and is 1-3 vs. line in game two last four seasons. Brohm on 13-6 spread run after Rice romp.
WKU, based on recent Bama home chalk woes.
MTSU at VANDERBILT...Derek Mason now 2-5 as chalk with Vandy after SC loss. Dores now "under" 13-1-2 last 16 after snoozer vs. Gamecocks! MTSU "under" 9-5 last 14.
"Under" and MTSU, based on "totals" and team trends.
VIRGINIA at OREGON...Dog role was good for Cavs in late stages of Mike London era, 12-4 last three years as short. Also 7-0 as DD dog past two years! Bronco 12-7 as dog past five years at BYU. Ducks 2-6 as Autzen chalk since LY.
Virginia, based on team trends..
SOUTH CAROLINA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Muschamp now 8-3-1 as dog since 2012 with Gators & SC. Cocks were 8-3 as dog from 2012-14. SC also now 13-4 "under" last 17 since late 2014.
SC and "under," based on Muschamp dog and 'totals" trends.
FAU at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Canes were 7-2-1 as Hard Rock chalk the past two years with Al Golden and Larry Scott, though Richt was just 11-15 in role past four years with Georgia. FAU has continued as solid dog, now 9-5 since 2014 and 23-9 in role since 2012.
FAU, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA TECH vs. TENNESSEE (at Bristol Super Speedway, TN)...Battle of Bristol! Fuente 4-0-1 as dog past two years with Memphis. Hokies did not have a winning spread mark during Beamer's last five seasons (last VPI win spread mark was 10-4 in 2011). Butch was 6-3 as chalk LY but failed first try in role TY vs. App State.
Virginia Tech, based on Fuente dog mark.
SMU at BAYLOR...SMU has lost by 45 and 35 the past two years vs. Baylor but squeezed a cover out of LY's 56-21 loss. Chad Morris 3-6 as dog LY and Mustangs 7-14 in dog role since 2014. Baylor only 2-4 as Waco chalk LY but Bears were 14-5-1 laying DD the previous two years.
Baylor, based on team trends..
IOWA STATE at IOWA...Matt Campbell introduced to Cy-Hawk rivalry! Cyclones are 8-1 vs. line last nine vs. Hawkeyes at Iowa City. Campbell covered his last three as dog at Toledo. Ferentz 8-18 as Nile Kinnick chalk since 2012.
Iowa State, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at ILLINOIS...Fedora rolled Illini by 48-14 count LY. Heels 6-2 vs. spread last 8 as visitor. Illini just 6-11 as dog the past two seasons with Beckman and Cubit prior to Lovie.
UNC, based on team trends.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN at SOUTH ALABAMA...Jags 3-8-1 vs. line at home since 2014. GSU has romped past USA past two seasons by 22 and 38 points. Eagles 5-2 as visiting chalk since 2014.
GSU, based on team and series trends.
WYOMING at NEBRASKA...Wyo was 4-2 as visiting dog LY and 7-4 as DD dog for Bohl. Huskers 7-12 as Lincoln chalk since 2013, and Mike Riley 4-10 as home chalk with Beavers and Huskers past three seasons, and his teams are 6-15 vs. line at home since 2013.
Wyoming, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Matt Wells just 5-8 as dog at USU but did cover at SC in 2013. Utags just 4-7 vs. line last 10 vs. non-MWC. Trojans 7-4 as Coliseum chalk past two seasons. Note Trojans 10-3 vs. spread last 13 after a SU loss.
Slight to USC, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Bob Davie 11-5-1 vs. line on road since 2013. Davie 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 vs. line against Ags since 2012. NMSU 6-11-1 vs. number as home dog since 2012.
New Mexico, based on team trends.
BYU at UTAH...Whittingham now 2-6 last eight as home chalk after non-cover vs. SUU. Utes however have covered last four in series. Cougs were 12-7 last five years as dog for Mendenhall.
BYU, based on recent Utah home woes.
WASHINGTON STATE at BOISE STATE...Harsin only 6-7 as home chalk past two seasons in charge of Broncos. Boise 11-20 vs. spread on blue carpet since 2011. Leach 5-1 as road dog LY, and 19-12 as dog since 2012.
WSU, based on team trends.
UNLV at UCLA...Rebs 10-4 as road dog the past three seasons, turning around what were some bad numbers. Mora 3-8 as Rose Bowl chalk since 2014, 2-8 last 10 as DD chalk (though one of those covers at UNLV LY).
UNLV, based on team trends.
TEXAS TECH at ARIZONA STATE...Kingsbury 5-1 last six as dog in reg season away from Lubbock. Red Raiders also 11-6-1 last 18 on board since late 2014 and "over" 11-3 last 14. Todd Graham 4-8 vs. spread last 12 against non-Pac 12 foes.
Texas Tech, based on recent trends.
CAL at SAN DIEGO STATE...Sonny Dykes 1-4 as dog LY (after 6-2 in 2014, and 12-6 at La Tech between 2010-12). Golden Bears 6-10 last 16 on board after Hawaii opener. But Rocky Long only 2-4 as home chalk LY and 3-7 vs. spread against non-MW since 2014.
California, based on team trends.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 8, 2016 5:54:59 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
CFB*|*LOUISVILLE*at*SYRACUSE
Play Against - Home underdogs (SYRACUSE) after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game
59-26*over the last 5 seasons.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units*)
CFB*|*MARYLAND*at*FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (FLA INTERNATIONAL) after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game
25-10*over the last 5 seasons.**(*71.4%*|*0.0 units*)
CFB*|*MARYLAND*at*FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (FLA INTERNATIONAL) after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season
79-39*over the last 5 seasons.**(*66.9%*|*36.1 units*)
CFB*|*BALL ST*at*INDIANA
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is greater than or equal to 31.5 off a double digit road win, when playing on a Saturday
59-26*since 1997.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units*)
CFB*|*SMU*at*BAYLOR
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is greater than or equal to 31.5 off a double digit road win, when playing on a Saturday
59-26*since 1997.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units*)
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Post by Gooba on Sept 9, 2016 5:40:51 GMT -5
BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK
Ohio Bobcats (-2 to +3) at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas snapped a 15-game losing streak with last weekend’s 55-6 destruction of Rhode Island, but the Jayhawks haven’t notched back-to-back victories since 2011. Be weary of the Bobcats in this spot, as MAC schools are just 5-18 ATS over their last 23 outings when coming off a loss to face a Big 12 opponent.
South Florida Bulls (-11 to -15) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies: Northern Illinois has failed to cover the spread in four straight games and is just 3-10 ATS over its last 13 games played on a grass surface, while head coach Willie Taggart has something special cooking at South Florida, as the Bulls are 8-1-1 ATS over their last ten contests played on a grass surface.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-25.5 to -29) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Be very careful with the Tide in this one because Ole Miss is on deck and Bama is 0-8 ATS over its last eight non-conference matchups as a favorite of 24 or more points. Also, be advised that Western Kentucky is 16-5 ATS over its last 21 games after allowing fewer than 20 points in the previous contest.
Miami Hurricanes (-21.5 to -25) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls: Mark Richt’s Miami debut went swimmingly thanks to a casual 70-3 rout of Florida A&M last Saturday. Those who weren’t hot on the Hurricanes entering 2016 are now jumping on board. Give the former Georgia boss three years and Miami will once again be a championship contender.
Duke Blue Devils (-7 to -4.5) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Interesting line move when you consider the fact that Duke has covered the number in five straight bouts with the Demon Deacons. Something stinks here
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Post by Gooba on Sept 9, 2016 5:41:19 GMT -5
Reacting (not overreacting) is valuable advice heading into college football Week 2
Full disclosure: I’m as guilty as the next person of repeatedly violating the piece of advice that I’m about to impart upon you. It’s completely within the boundaries of fair play to say that I’m utilizing this week’s lede to serve a dual purpose: a selfish reminder to myself as well as a public service announcement to you, our loyal readers.
Do not, under any circumstances whatsoever, overreact to what you saw transpire during college football’s opening weekend.
That’s not to say that the 50-47 upset Charlie Strong’s Texas Longhorns put on Notre Dame Saturday night is completely without any substantive or predictive value. If nothing else, Texas emphatically demonstrated that they are more than worthy of a position within the Associated Press Top-25. But to go from unranked the previous week to No. 11 this week based on a 3-point home victory? That may fall within the constructs of a slight overreaction, even if the opponent was Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish.
You could express a similar sentiment in regards to LSU’s fall from No. 5 to No. 21 based on its 16-14 defeat at the hands of the Wisconsin Badgers Saturday at Lambeau Field. Perhaps the Tigers and their utter disgrace of an aerial attack aren’t worthy of top-5 consideration, but do you really feel that running back Leonard Fournette and the LSU defense are worse than 20 other programs in America?
Which brings us back to our initial point: There’s reacting, and then there’s overreacting. Do not allow yourself to succumb to the hypnotizing effects emitted from the latter.
Fun fact: Speaking of LSU and it’s anemic passing game - did you know that since 2009, Army, Navy, Air Force and New Mexico are the only schools in the Football Bowl Subdivision to throw for fewer yards than LSU?
Unreal.
But I digress from my original point of emphasis, which was to make sure we don’t put too much weight upon the results that came across the wire last weekend.
“We made a few changes. Houston is a mover, for example,” Jay Rood, Vice President of Race & Sports for MGM International told us when asked how the first week of the college football season affected his power rankings. “However, we aren’t willing to overreact, as many of the big-name teams that lost last weekend are more than capable of getting back into the championship picture rather quickly with the right win coupled with some losses sustained by their competitors.”
This brings us to the crown jewel of college football’s opening weekend, which was a highly touted showdown between two historic programs-turned-Game of Thrones-style bludgeoning as the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide annihilated No. 20 USC 52-6 in front of 81,000+ sets of wide eyes and dropped jaws. The victory moved Nick Saban to a perfect 10-0 lifetime in Week 1 as the head coach at Alabama, while the loss sustained by the Trojans served as the program’s most lopsided defeat in more than 50 years.
In the aftermath, Alabama moved from a 25.5-point favorite for Saturday’s home opener against Western Kentucky to a current position of -29, while the Men of Troy were bet from -16.5 to -16 for their Week 2 matchup with Utah State.
Once again, don’t overreact. Especially when it comes to Alabama.
Why? Let’s begin with the fact that after establishing itself as the country’s preeminent powerhouse, the Crimson Tide have nothing significant left to prove this weekend against Western Kentucky. Additionally, take a close look at the Alabama schedule and you’ll notice a road date against an Ole Miss team, that has defeated the Tide in each of the last two seasons, looms large just seven days after the Western Kentucky encounter. So it’s not outside the realm of possibility to assume offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin will execute a relatively vanilla game plan against the Hilltoppers in order to keep Mississippi off balance heading into their marquee SEC West showdown.
But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, so try this one on for size: Did you know that Alabama is 0-8 against the spread over its last eight non-conference matchups when favored by 24 or more points? Not only that, but the Tide have a history of taking their foot off the gas pedal the week after winning a marquee showdown. Always circled as the biggest game of the regular season, Alabama is 4-0 straight-up over the last four years against hated rival LSU. But in the week after those four victories, the Tide have gone just 3-1 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread.
React to what you watched last weekend because you are human. Avoid overreacting to what you watched last weekend because you’re trying to make money.
SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER
Each and every week during the 2016 college football season, this column will speak with a Las Vegas bookmaker in an effort to bring you the most important betting information possible regarding the upcoming weekend’s schedule.
This week we speak with Jay Rood, who currently has the pleasure of serving as the Vice President of Race & Sports for MGM Resorts International.
Biggest adjustments to championship odds following Week 1: “We cut Alabama down to 6/5 in a hurry, but have not taken any sharp action on the Crimson Tide in the wake of that move.”
Week 2 sharp action: “The sharps have been betting Texas Tech (+4 at Arizona State), New Mexico (-11 at New Mexico State) and Alabama (opened -25.5 vs. Western Kentucky.”
Week 2 public action: “Two teams stand out above all else here, and those are Michigan (-35.5 vs. Central Florida) and Alabama (now -29.5 vs. Western Kentucky).”
Which teams do you feel are currently overvalued in the betting market: “Houston, Clemson and TCU.”
Which teams do you feel are currently undervalued in the betting market: “South Carolina and Tennessee.”
TREND OF THE WEEK
Behind a staggering 329 rushing yards spread out across eight different ball carriers, the Army Black Knights upset the Temple Owls 28-13 in Philadelphia last Saturday despite entering the game as 14.5-point underdogs.
But beware of those aforementioned Week 1 overreactions, because recent history does not bode well for Army. Since 2010, the Black Knights are an unbelievable 0-18 straight-up and 4-14 against the spread when coming off a win.
Army is currently listed as a 10-point favorite for Saturday’s home showdown against the Rice Owls
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