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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:16:25 GMT -5
College football action report: Sharp action is pouring in on Texas Tech
The college football matchups in Week 2 aren’t nearly as glamorous as in Week 1, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from moving the lines in several games. Heading into Saturday’s games, We talk about where the action is with Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arizona State Sun Devils – Open: -3; Move: pick ‘em
Both these teams are coming off lopsided SU and ATS victories in their season openers, against far over-matched FCS opponents. The Red Raiders railroaded Stephen F. Austin 69-17 as 37.5-point home favorites, while the Sun Devils ripped visiting Northern Arizona 44-13 giving 27 points.
This line opened as high as ASU -5 at offshore spots, and William Hill’s Nevada sportsbooks started in at -3 Monday morning. The movement has continued to trend downward all week.
“We’re at a pick ‘em,” Bogdanovich said from his Las Vegas office on Friday afternoon. “It’s definitely sharp money, but I think the public likes Texas Tech, as well. Still, anytime you see a move like that before the weekend, it’s always the professionals.”
Connecticut Huskies at Navy Midshipmen – Open: -5; Move: -4
Navy steamrolled past FCS foe Fordham in Week 1, a 52-16 victory laying 17 points at home. UConn also went the FCS route but had a much harder time, fending off Maine 24-21 and falling miles short as 27-point home chalk.
However, Navy learned during the week that starting quarterback Tago Smith would be out for the year with a torn ACL, and the line tightened.
“That’s due probably a little bit to money and a little bit to information,” Bogdanovich said. “When the Navy quarterback got hurt, we weren’t sure about the extent of the injury. Now, we know he’s out.”
Nevada Wolf Pack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -27; Move: -28.5
The Fighting Irish rallied from a 31-14 third-quarter deficit last week at Texas in perhaps the most entertaining game of the weekend. However, Notre Dame ultimately fell 50-47 in overtime as a 3.5-point road fave, so Brian Kelly’s troops will likely be doubly motivated for their home opener.
Nevada could be a very willing opponent. The Wolf Pack worked overtime last week, too, but against a much weaker squad in Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo. Nevada won 30-27 as a heavy 21.5-point favorite.
“There’s plenty of Notre Dame money,” Bogdanovich said. “That game is one where there’s more public money than sharp money. We’ve got a lot of books up in Northern Nevada, and Nevada looked terrible in Week 1. The money we took I think is definitely square money.”
Georgia State Panthers at Air Force Falcons – Open: -18; Move: -21
Air Force topped FCS opponent Abilene Christian 37-21 last week, but fell well short as massive 42.5-point home chalk in that contest. The Falcons aren’t taking much of a step up against Georgia State, which suffered a 31-21 upset loss laying 6 points to visiting Ball State in Week 1.
There was talk that Air Force quarterback Nate Romine was hurt last week, though no injury was disclosed by the Falcons.
“The Air Force quarterback was questionable, and now he’s starting,” Bogdanovich said. “A lot of that line movement was (due to) that information. We got a little bit of money on Air Force.”
North Carolina Tar Heels at Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: +9.5; Move: +7
North Carolina lost at home in its regular-season opener, 33-24 to Georgia catching 3.5 points, while Illinois battered Murray State of the FCS 52-3 laying 33 points. Those outcomes apparently made the home underdog attractive in this ACC-Big Ten contest.
“That’s definitely sharp money,” Bogdanovich said.
Other Saturday games seeing significant line movement:
* Wake Forest at Duke. The Blue Devils opened as 4.5-point favorites at William Hill and have since been bet up to 6.5.
* Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech. This game will be played on the infield of Bristol Motor Speedway. The Vols opened as 9-point chalk at some books and have since moved to 11 and even 11.5, though William Hill opened a little later at 10.5 and stands at 11.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:17:18 GMT -5
Preview: Knights (1-0) at Wolverines (1-0)
Date: September 10, 2016 12:00 PM EDT
Most of the summer, Michigan put a lot effort into keeping the identity of its starting quarterback quiet. There might be no holding back Wilton Speight Saturday when the No. 5 Wolverines host Central Florida.
Speight, a sophomore, is all but entrenched as Michigan's lead signal caller after performing well in the season-opening 63-3 thrashing of Hawaii. Now the Wolverines are a 37-point favorite against the Knights, who have never played at Michigan Stadium and went 0-12 last season.
Scott Frost, the former Nebraska quarterback who rose rapidly up coaching ranks and served as offensive coordinator at Oregon when Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy, led UCF to a win over South Carolina State in his coaching debut.
Frost is a familiar name for Wolverines' fans.
Nebraska and Michigan split the national championship after the 1997 season, well before the College Football Playoff was even a pipedream.
"There are probably some people that care," Frost said, a softened stance in contrast to his boast that Nebraska was far superior to Michigan in January 1998. "That was a long time ago. It's unfortunate that at that time the two best teams in the country couldn't play each other. We feel like we were the best team, they feel like they were the best team and we'll never know. It was a great year for me and has absolutely no bearing on this Saturday."
If Michigan has designs on returning to a national title game for the first time since the split with the Cornhuskers in 1997, the Wolverines are counting on their first-year starter under center to help guide the offense.
Speight completed 10 of 13 passes for 145 yards and three touchdowns against Hawaii after outdueling junior John O'Korn in fall camp to win the position.
Speight knew he was going to start the opener but Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh refused to publicly spill the details.
"He had total command, and it speaks volumes and bodes really well for our team and really well for his career as a quarterback to have done that," Harbaugh said. "Now he knows he can do it, and we can expect him to do it."
Speight's outing against the Rainbow Warriors didn't start so well. He telegraphed his first pass and it was picked off by Hawaii safety Damien Packer.
Speight headed toward the sideline and there was Harbaugh. But he didn't encounter an angry version of the typically animated coach. He instead found him wearing a smile.
"It obviously wasn't the start I was imagining, and I was rolling to our sideline anyway, and my momentum carried me right into Coach," Speight said. "He just grabbed me and hugged me and was kind of laughing. He said, 'Don't worry. We'll get 'em next drive. Don't sweat about that.' And I was able to do that."
Speight rebounded and the Wolverines were off to a big victory with the 60-point winning margin representing its largest since a 69-0 rout of Northwestern in 1975.
The defense also excelled as it gave up just 232 total yards and forced five three-and-outs. Senior defensive backs Delano Hill and Channing Stribling each scored touchdown on interception returns.
Speight isn't alone.
Running back Chris Evans, who moved up the depth chart when senior Drake Johnson was unable to play and made the most of his playing time, is looking for more against UCF after the Knights allowed just 2.6 yards per carry last week.
"It's big for me," said Evans, "but I feel that with team success comes individual excellence. I knew I could do what I did, but I stay humble about it and want to see everyone on my team succeed. When I get my shot, I get my shot."
In addition to Johnson's possible return at running back, the Wolverines could see reinforcements arrive this week. Senior cornerback Jourdan Lewis was held out of the Hawaii game for precautionary reasons due to an unspecified injury but will play against Central Florida.
However, Michigan senior defensive end Taco Charlton (ankle) is expected to sit out after being injured in the opener against Hawaii. Sophomore linebacker Noah Furbush (knee) missed the Hawaii game and is unlikely to play versus Central Florida.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:18:03 GMT -5
Preview: Razorbacks (1-0) at Horned Frogs (1-0)
Date: September 10, 2016 7:00 PM EDT
Seeing 59 points on the scoreboard in the opener continued a recent TCU trend of racking up the touchdowns.
But the 41 points allowed were still bothering Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson this week.
No. 15 TCU hosts Arkansas at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, on Saturday night, and the residue of the shaky defensive showing in which the Horned Frogs allowed 461 yards to South Dakota State in their opener has Patterson deeply concerned.
"When you do that, you're not going to give your kids a very good chance of being successful," Patterson said. "Hopefully, we'll do a lot better job as a coaching staff of getting them put in position against Arkansas.
"If not, they'll have 1,000 yards and 1,000 points. We've got to do a lot better job this week."
The Razorbacks rallied for a 21-20 victory over Louisiana Tech in their opener with quarterback Austin Allen engineering a 77-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter to overcome a 20-14 deficit. He capped the march with a 4-yard touchdown pass to tight end Jeremy Sprinkle.
"We found a way to win," Hogs coach Bret Bielema said. "That builds a lot of confidence."
Allen was 20 of 29 passing for 191 yards with two touchdown passes, but he also was intercepted twice and was sacked four times. Wide receiver Keon Hatcher had six catches for 86 yards and wide receiver Drew Morgan five for 47 to account for more than half the production. Sprinkle's touchdown reception was his third and final catch of the day.
Running back Rawleigh Williams III led the Razorbacks' rushing attack with 96 yards on 24 carries. The Hogs had a net team total of 106 rushing yards with the sacks accounting for 26 yards in lost yardage.
"We felt really good about certain guys," Bielema said. "Our MVPs offensively, two guys really jumped out -- Rawleigh Williams and Keon Hatcher. Keon supplied some juice, especially in that second half. Some of those plays with extra effort continue to be impressive.
"Rawleigh was really impressive the whole game. I probably could have called on him a little bit more."
Keeping Williams in check has to be a concern what with the Horned Frogs experiencing an abundance of poor tackling in their first game. Patterson took the blame for the woes on defense.
"We didn't tackle very well. As we get a lot of times, we got a different game plan than what we worked on," Patterson said. "To be honest with you, I did a poor job of getting them ready to play. We didn't tackle very well, and schematically we didn't do a very good job of lining up."
TCU senior defensive tackle Aaron Curry cited communication issues as a big problem in the first half against South Dakota State so there are plenty of things to shore up.
"It was the first game so everyone was probably too hyped up and worrying about the wrong things, but as the game kept going everyone calmed down," Curry said.
One area where there was no problem was at quarterback, where Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill made his TCU debut. He passed for 439 yards, seventh-most in TCU history, while accounting for five touchdowns.
"I thought for a first ballgame, he managed it," Patterson said. "We understand Arkansas is a lot more talented as a defense, a lot more athletic, a lot more physical one than the one we just played. We know we have to get a lot better at what we're doing to be able to play like we need to."
Hill threw two interceptions, but quickly moved on from his miscues.
"It's a year-and-a-half worth of hard work and just prayers that are all coming to fruition now," Hill said. "So it's a big deal for me."
Patterson agrees that the work looks to pay off for the junior.
"No. 1, he's really studied," Hill said. "He's been a professional about it ever since he's been here, he's been a great student, he's done everything right. Every week, he keeps becoming a better and better leader.
"Our kids just rally around him. That's what you're looking for with a quarterback
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:19:21 GMT -5
Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds
We're on to Week 2 of the college football season and the full slate of games can be tough to navigate for bettors. So we bring you our Top 25 betting cheat sheet to handicap the best games of the day.
Central Florida Knights at No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (-35.5, 52.5)
* Justin Holman struggled with his accuracy as he went 14-of-28 for 193 yards but threw two touchdown passes and ran for another in the win against South Carolina State. Tre'Qaun Smith caught four passes for 65 yards and a touchdown while Matthew Wright matched a single-game school record with four field goals. "I am excited to see how good they can get if they keep on working," Frost told reporters. "I don't want our kids to be afraid to play anybody and I think our guys are ready to go up there and look that challenge in the face and take swings at them."
* Wilton Speight, who emerged as the winner in the quarterback battle with John O'Korn, bounced back from an interception on his first throw to finish 10-of-13 for 145 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start. Linebacker Mike McCray was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week after registering nine tackles, including 3.5 for loss, two sacks and a forced fumble in his first game after missing last season with a shoulder injury. Chris Evans enjoyed a sparkling debut as he rushed for 112 yards and two touchdowns to become the third player in school history to run for more than 100 yards in his first game, and was one of 18 true freshmen who played against Hawaii.
LINE HISTORY:
Michigan opened as 34.5-point favorites and that line was bet up to 35.5 almost immediately. On Wednesday some money came back on Central Florida and the line came back to 35, but that was short-lived and the point spread currently sits at -35.5.
The total hit the board at 56 and has gradually been coming down in half point increments all week. The total currently sits at 52.5.
TRENDS:
* Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
* Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 5-1 in Knights last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 9-0 in Wolverines last 9 games overall.
Central Michigan Chippewas at No. 17 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-21, 61)
* The Chippewas gave the Cowboys a scare in a 24-13 home loss in last year's season opener and will test the middle of the defense with their rushing attack. Jahray Hayes, who did not get a carry in last year's meeting, ran for three touchdowns against Presbyterian to highlight 255 yards on the ground for Central Michigan. "It’s about us, not about who we’re playing,” Chippewas coach John Bonamego told the school's website. “It’s about how we prepare, the physicality, the intensity, effort and discipline we bring to the game each week. It sounds cliche, but the opponent doesn’t really matter."
* The Cowboys are featuring their rushing attack as well and four different players scored on the ground in the opener. "The players need a lot of credit for their work ethic and their intensity," Yurcich told reporters of the group of rushers. "They all ran very hard. They ran tough with the ball and secured the ball. So time is going to tell. We'll see at practice and take it one day at a time. Surely we'd like have a couple of guys emerge, but this is a good problem to have." Quarterback Mason Rudolph, who threw for 266 yards and a score in the win at Central Michigan last year, was solid with a pair of TD passes in the opener.
LINE HISTORY:
The Cowboys opened as 19-point favorites before the point spread quickly jumped to -20.5 on Sunday evening. Throughout the week the line wavered slightly before settling down at the current number of -21.
The total opened at 61.5 and fell a full point to 60.5 on Tuesday before being bet back up a half point to the current total of 61.
TRENDS:
* Chippewas are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Chippewas last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games overall.
Troy Trojans at No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-36, 63)
* The Trojans amassed 706 total yards last week – the third-highest total in school history – but the opposition will be much stiffer this time. Star running back Jordan Chunn did much of the damage, rolling up 161 yards on only 13 carries, and quarterback Brandon Silvers was 20-of-27 for 229 yards and two touchdowns. The Trojans were in the backfield all day against the Governors – nine different players recorded tackles for losses – but they’ll have a tougher time controlling the line of scrimmage against the Tigers.
* The Tigers figure to have one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses with Heisman Trophy candidate Deshaun Watson returning along with a strong supporting cast. Wayne Gallman, who set a single-season school record with 1,527 rushing yards last season, ran for 123 against Auburn while receiver Mike Williams made nine catches for 174 yards in his first action since the initial game of the 2015 campaign. The Tigers ranked sixth in total defense (308.8 yards per game) last year and picked up where they left off against Auburn, allowing 262 total yards with three takeaways.
LINE HISTORY:
Clemson opened as big 36-point favorites at home against the over-matched Troy Trojans. The public, however, felt this line was a little bit too chunky and bet the underdog - forcing the books to drop their number to the current position of -34.5.
The total hit the board at 63.5 and has dropped slightly to 63.
TRENDS:
* Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Tigers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 8-2 in Trojans last 10 games on grass.
* Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5, 73.5)
* D'Angelo Brewer rushed for a career-high 164 yards and three touchdowns last week in Tulsa's resounding victory. The Golden Hurricane defense allowed a total of 287 yards and forced three turnovers, including a pair of defensive scores. Of the matchup with Ohio State, senior wideout Keevan Lucas said: “We’re not going to take anyone lightly or bow down to anybody just because of who they are. We like playing in those big games because we like to have a challenge."
* Barrett posted a career-high 349 passing yards in Week 1, while Curtis Samuel also set a personal best with 177 receiving yards to go along with 84 rushing yards as part of a three-touchdown performance. All in all, it was a solid debut for a Buckeyes' roster that returns only three starters on each side of the ball - the fewest total returning starters (six) among all FBS programs. Mike Weber ran for 136 yards in his collegiate debut but could be challenged by a Tulsa defense that yielded 1.7 yards per rush in its opener.
LINE HISTORY:
The point spread for this one opened with the Buckeyes pegged as 28-point favorites. The line wavered all week between -28 and -29 before settling right in the middle at -28.5 by Thursday.
The total opened at 72.5 and was as high as 74 by mid-week. On Thursday afternoon the total nuzzled down the it's current number of 73.5.
TRENDS:
* Golden Hurricane are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 10-1 in Golden Hurricane last 11 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 6-1 in Buckeyes last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Southern Methodist Mustangs at No. 19 Baylor Bears (-32, 76)
* The big question for the Mustangs is whether Davis, who was 8-of-17 for 155 yards in the opener before leaving with a knee injury, will be ready to play. Morris said Davis will be a game-time decision with freshman Ben Hicks, who was 5-of-9 for 88 yards and a touchdown off the bench, the likely replacement if Davis can't go. Corner Horace Richardson (two interceptions) and defensive end Justin Lawler (3.5 sacks) both had big games defensively for the Mustangs in the opener.
* The Bears' first team offense piled up 340 yards and scored on all seven of its possessions (5 TDs, 2 field goals) in less than a half of action in the opener. Quarterback Seth Russell improved to 9-0 as a starter and completed 14-of-20 passes for 163 yards and four touchdowns before departing while running back Shock Linwood rushed for 97 yards on just nine carries. Returning all-Big 12 linebacker Taylor Young led the Bears on defense with six tackles, including 3.5 for loss, and a sack while defensive end K.J. Smith added three tackles, including two for loss, and a sack.
LINE HISTORY:
The point spread for this contest opened with Baylor as 32-point favorites at home and the total opened at 76. As of Friday afternoon, neither number has moved.
TRENDS:
* Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-1 in Mustangs last 6 vs. Big 12.
* Over is 17-4 in Bears last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Nevada Wolf Pack at No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-28, 61)
* The Wolf Pack needed overtime to escape FCS opponent Cal Poly and its triple-option offense in a 30-27 triumph in Week 1. "We have a lot to teach and there’s a lot we have to improve on before next week," Nevada coach Brian Polian told reporters after the win. "But we found a way to win the game. That’s all that matters." The Wolf Pack got a big performance from running back James Butler - 123 yards and two touchdowns - in the victory and figure to test the Irish run defense.
* The Fighting Irish went into the season with a quarterback controversy between DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire, and Kizer stood the tallest with the two each logging playing time in the opener. Kizer threw five touchdown passes and ran for another score while Zaire was limited to 23 yards on 2-of-5 passes, and Kelly seems on the verge of naming a No. 1 quarterback moving forward. "We plan on having two really good quarterbacks the rest of the year," Kelly told reporters. "I haven't sat down and talked with either one of them, so before we do that we don't have any plans to make any decisions."
LINE HISTORY:
The point spread for this one opened at Notre Dame -28 for their first home game of the season and the line has yet to move off that number. The total hit the board at 60.5, went up slightly to 61, and returned back to the original number of 60.5 on Friday afternoon.
TRENDS:
* Wolf Pack are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Under is 9-2 in Wolf Pack last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 7-0 in Fighting Irish last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-28.5, 62)
* Junior Mike White, a transfer from South Florida, enjoyed a dynamic debut by passing for 517 yards and three touchdowns against Rice to become just the third quarterback in school history to throw for more than 500 yards. Senior receivers Nicholas Norris (seven receptions, 147 yards, two touchdowns) and Taywan Taylor (five catches, 165 yards) both had huge openers while senior running back Anthony Wales rushed for two scores. Junior linebacker T.J. McCollum stood out with 12 tackles and a forced fumble in the opener while redshirt freshman AJ Jackson and junior DeAndre Simmons each had an interception.
* Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry is off to the NFL, but the Crimson Tide appear to have another superb bell cow back in sophomore Damien Harris, who rushed for 138 yards on nine carries against USC. Harris, a former five-star recruit, had just 157 yards while Henry was running wild last season but broke off runs of 46 and 73 yards while averaging 15.3 yards per carry versus the Trojans. Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen, who registered 12 sacks last season, was the SEC Defensive Player of the Week after posting two sacks and helping the defense limit USC to 194 yards.
LINE HISTORY:
The point spread for this one opened at 26.5, and after Alabama's very impressive 52-6 Week 1 victory over USC the public jumped all over the Tide and rode the line all the way up to -29.5 by mid-week. The public then came to their senses a little bit and the line came crept back down to its current status of -28.
The total opened at 58.5 and gradually rose in 1/2 point increments to 62.5.
TRENDS:
* Hilltoppers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Crimson Tide are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. CUSA.
* Over is 8-1-1 in Hilltoppers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in Crimson Tide last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 25 Florida Gators (-16.5, 49.5)
* The offense showed what it is capable in the first half with Barker, wide receiver Garrett "Juice" Johnson (six receptions, 143 yards, two touchdowns for the game) and running back Stanley "Boom" Williams (13 carries, 94 yards) keying an attack that produced six plays of more than 30 yards including touchdown passes of 74 yards to Jeff Badet and 43 yards to Johnson. Kentucky's defense also started fast behind cornerback J.D. Harmon (two interceptions) and linebacker Jordan Jones (13 solo tackles), but gave up seven scores in the final eight possessions while the offense stalled and turned the ball over twice. Stoops said the defense obviously needs to play better, but also pointed out that Kentucky's quick scoring drives and the offense's second-half woes (two first downs) contributed to the defense wearing down.
* Del Rio, who showed the ability to escape pressure in the pocket, didn't take long to show good chemistry with receivers with Powell (seven receptions, 73 yards) and explosive sophomore Antonio Callaway (eight receptions, 72 yards, one touchdown). While running back Jordan Scarlett had a solid game (13 carries, 70 yards), the offensive line struggled to consistently open up holes for the ground game with Florida managing only 107 yards rushing. Led by linebackers Jarrad Davis (nine tackles) and Alex Anzalone (six tackles, one sack), the defense was dominant as expected while perhaps the most positive development was the kicking of sophomore Eddy Pineiro, who made field goals of 40, 49 and 48 yards without a miss.
LINE HISTORY:
Florida opened the betting for this one as 16.5-point favorites. The line went up a half point to -17 on Wednesday but some Kentucky action drove the line down to its current position of -16 by Thursday night.
The total opened at 47.5 and the public hit the Over so hard that the books moved the number up a full two points to sit at 49.5.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Wildcats last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-0 in Gators last 6 games on grass.
* Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Akron Zips at No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers (-23.5, 47.5)
* The Zips rode a 407-yard, six-touchdown passing performance from junior quarterback Tommy Woodson, who connected 10 times for 196 yards and two scores to Jerome Lane. Warren Ball, an Ohio State transfer, led the ground game with 110 yards and one touchdown. The Mid-American Conference program, led by former Auburn coach Terry Bowden, is a concern for Chryst, who told reporters: "They’ll spread you out. Their quarterback has got a really strong arm but is also a good runner. I think their running back is a really good running back. They got some receivers that can run and got size. I think it’s going to stress us differently than last week where they’ll spread us out and we gotta play good assignment football. There’s times where you’ll be in one-on-one situations - we gotta make plays when we do."
* Fifth-year quarterback Bart Houston was 19-of-31 for 205 yards in his first start, of which Chryst said: "I think that the one area that we talked about is how do you play the game. There’s that fine line. It’s not so much the science of quarterback but kind of the art of quarterbacking and situational awareness. I think that’s where he can grow, not just on the two picks, but other situations where he can progress. I loved the way he competed and responded when things didn’t go well." Houston found tight end Troy Fumagalli seven times for 100 yards and running back Corey Clement ran a career-high 21 times for 86 yards. Kicker Rafael Gaglianone nailed a 47-yard field goal that was the fourth game-winner of his career.
LINE HISTORY:
Wisconsin hit the board for this contest as 25.5-point favorites before gradually being bet down all week long to their current point spread of -23.5. The total for this one opened at 45 and, after initially dropping to 43.5, skyrocketed all the way up to the current total of 47.5.
TRENDS:
* Zips are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. MAC.
* Under is 9-1 in Zips last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 7-1 in Badgers last 8 home games.
Idaho Vandals at No. 11 Washington Huskies (-37.5, 60)
* Junior quarterback Matt Linehan, the son of Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, was a shaky 8-of-22 passing for 128 yards and one interception in the opener after passing for 2,972 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. Junior Aaron Duckworth is the new feature back and rushed for two scores while posting a career-high 108 yards on 14 carries, as the Vandals totaled 225 on the ground versus Montana State. Sophomore linebacker Tony Lashley (nine tackles) and senior defensive end Tueni Lupeamanu (eight stops, three for losses) had strong opening performances and senior safety Russell Siavii recorded an interception.
* Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning got off to a good start by hitting 18-of-27 attempts for 287 yards and three touchdowns against Rutgers. Sophomore tailback Myles Gaskin had just 57 yards in the opener after rushing for 1,302 yards last season, eighth-most in school history, while versatile 5-foot-7 sophomore receiver Chico McClatcher caught a 43-yard scoring pass to compliment Ross' long scores. Junior linebacker Keishawn Bierria (12 tackles, one forced fumble) and junior linebacker Azeem Victor (11 tackles) had strong opening performances, but junior cornerback Budda Baker is considered the unit's top player.
LINE HISTORY:
Washington began the betting action for this matchup as 36.5-point favorites. On Wednesday afternoon the line was bumped up to -37 and on Friday morning Washington went up another point to -37.5.
The total was steady at 60 all week until Friday evening when it made a slight uptick to 60.5.
TRENDS:
* Vandals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
* Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 6-0 in Vandals last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Texas El Paso Miners at No. 20 Texas Longhorns (-30, 59)
* Aaron Jones ran for 249 yards and two scores against New Mexico State to compliment Zack Greenlee's three passing scores. The Miners are 0-15 all-time against Big 12 opponents since 1996, including a pair of losses to the Longhorns. “I’ll be honest, we’ll probably have to play a perfect game for us to beat this team," UTEP coach Sean Kugler told reporters of Texas. "I’m not saying that it can’t be done. I know our kids are going to go out and give their all. I love the way our kids compete."
* The Longhorns had three legitimate quarterback prospects on the roster before Jerrod Heard offered to play wide receiver, and the sophomore is already making an impact on the outside. Heard made a pair of catches against Notre Dame, including a key 68-yard grab, and totaled 73 yards. "That guy is really athletic and he's really honed in, he's really focused, motivated, and determined about being a really good receiver," Gilbert told reporters of Heard. "So he's jumped in wholeheartedly with that and what he wanted to do and what we've asked him to do."
LINE HISTORY:
The public is in love with Texas at the moment after their big win over Notre Dame in Week 1. The Longhorns opened as 28-point favorites but the line quicky rose and by Thursday morning they were sitting at the current number -30.
The total opened at 58.5 and went up a full point to 59.5 by Wednesday morning. But Under bettors drove the number back down to 58.5 on Friday, which is where it currently sits.
TRENDS:
* Miners are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on fieldturf.
* Longhorns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Under is 11-1-1 in Miners last 13 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 7-0 in Longhorns last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
UL Monroe Warhawks at No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners (-46.5, 65.5)
* Quarterback Garrett Smith became the first Warhawk to rush for 150 yards since 2011 and the first ULM signal-caller to top 200 yards passing since Nov. 29, 2014. Fellow sophomore Ben Luckett also ran for 110 yards versus Southern to give the Warhawks their first pair of 100-yard rushers in the same game since 2009. The team combined for three scores on the ground after tallying only seven all of last season. ULM also experienced much more success on third and fourth down in the opener, going 11-for-17 and 1-for-1, respectively, after ranking 123rd and 85th in those categories in 2015.
* The Sooners, who averaged 222 yards rushing last season, managed only 70 on 26 carries versus the Cougars, although two-time 1,000-yard rusher Samaje Perine was limited in the second half with a shoulder injury after taking a big hit in the second quarter. Backfield mate Joe Mixon contributed 181 total yards - including a team-high 40 rushing - and took his first reception of the season for 60 yards, giving him a FBS-best three such plays by a running back over the last two seasons. Despite playing in only 14 games as a Sooner, quarterback Baker Mayfield is already tied for fourth in 300-yard passing games with seven after throwing for 323 in the opener.
LINE HISTORY:
The Duck Dynasty gang would not be impressed as the Oklahoma Sooners opened as 44-point favorites over the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. Throughout the week this line rose steadily to its current point spread of -46.5.
The total opened at 65 and rose slightly to 65.5 on Thursday afternoon.
TRENDS:
* Warhawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 5-1 in Warhawks last 6 games in September.
* Over is 8-1 in Sooners last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 12 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-7, 58.5)
* The Razorbacks needed a 77-yard fourth-quarter touchdown drive to pull out a 21-20 victory over Louisiana Tech in their opener on Saturday. Austin Allen, younger brother of three-year starting QB Brandon Allen, completed 20-of-29 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns in his first college start, including a four-yarder to tight end Jeremy Sprinkle with 6:37 remaining for the game-winner but was also intercepted twice and sacked four times. The Hogs' normally potent ground game managed just 106 yards with Rawleigh Williams III garnering 96 yards on 24 carries and a touchdown.
* Hill's 439 passing yards ranked seventh best in TCU history -- not a bad way to start -- and he teamed up with wide receiver Taj Williams, a junior-college transfer, 11 times for 158 yards and touchdown. Kyle Hicks led the ground game with 15 carries for 59 yards and two touchdowns as the Horned Frogs piled up 662 total yards and 35 first downs. TCU coach Gary Patterson took the blame for a shockingly inept defensive effort that gave up 461 yards and 41 points, saying "Hopefully, we'll do a lot better job as a coaching staff of getting them put in position against Arkansas. ... If not, they'll have 1,000 yards and 1,000 points."
LINE HISTORY:
The point spread for this matchup opened with TCU pegged as 7-5-point favorites. The line held tight all week until Friday when it started moving around like an untied balloon. The spread started the day by dropping to -7 and then dropped even further to -6.5 before regaining a half point on Friday evening to settle at -7.
The total opened at 60 and steadily dropped all week until eventually settling at 57.5.
TRENDS:
* Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big 12.
* Horned Frogs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Razorbacks last 8 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 games in September
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:20:02 GMT -5
Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Kentucky at Florida**
-- As of Friday morning, most betting shops had Florida (1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) listed as a 16.5-point favorite with a total of 49 points. The Wildcats were +550 on the money line (risk $100 to win $550). For first-half bets, UF was favored by 9.5 points with a total of 26.
-- Florida hold the NCAA’s longest active winning streak over another team with its 29 consecutive wins over Kentucky, breaking the mark held by Penn St. over Temple until the Owls snapped that 31-game losing streak last season. The Wildcats haven’t beaten UF since 1986 and haven’t won in Gainesville since 1979. Twenty-one of the 29 UF wins have come by double-digit margins. Also, the Gators have covered the spread at an 8-1 ATS clip in the last nine games against the Wildcats.
-- With that said, Mark Stoops has had UK close to breaking this dubious record in back-to-back seasons. Two years ago in Gainesville, UF captured a 36-30 win in triple overtime as an 18-point home ‘chalk.’ The Gators caught a monster break in the first extra session, completing a TD pass on fourth down when it appeared clear that the play should’ve been whistled for a delay of game penalty. Then in Lexington last season, the UF defense had to make several stops in the fourth quarter to hold on for a 14-9 victory as a 3.5-point road favorite.
-- Stoops came into the fourth season of his tenure at UK with a 12-24 record. After a 2-10 campaign to begin his reign, the ‘Cats raced out to a 5-1 start in Year 2, only to lose their last six regular-season games. Then in 2015, they started 4-1 but slumped late to finish 5-7 again. Kentucky had an early double-digit lead at home against Louisville in last year’s regular-season finale, only to eventually lose by a 38-24 count. Stoops’s record fell to 12-25 after losing last week’s opener at home to Southern Miss, further warming the seat upon which he sits as head coach at UK.
-- It certainly didn’t help Stoops’s cause that his team jumped out to a 35-10 lead late in the first half against the Golden Eagles. Drew Barker, the third-year sophomore QB making his third career start, got off to a smoking start. Barker was a four-star recruit and considered the prize of Stoops’s second recruiting haul that earned national Top-25 honors. Barker had four TD passes in the first half vs. Southern Miss, including three in the first quarter, but So. Miss got a big boost before halftime with a 71-yard TD pass from Nick Mullens to Isaiah Jones with 26 seconds left in the second quarter. This would ignite 34 unanswered points and lead to a 44-35 win by the Golden Eagles as 3.5-point underdogs. The line had dipped from UK -7 down to -3.5 in the 24 hours leading up to kickoff.
-- Barker finished the night by completing 15-of-24 passes for 323 yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Garrett Johnson hauled in six receptions for 143 yards and two TDs, while Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams rushed 13 times for 94 yards.
-- UK’s defense couldn’t stop the run, allowing Southern Miss RB Ito Smith to rush for 173 yards and one TD on 36 carries. The Golden Eagles finished with 296 rushing yards.
-- Kentucky owns a 5-8 spread record as a road underdog on Stoops’s watch. Meanwhile, UF is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite since Jim McElwain took over before last season.
-- Kentucky WR Dorian Baker is ‘questionable’ at UF with a hamstring injury. Baker had 55 receptions for 608 yards and three TDs last year.
-- Florida had an inauspicious debut as well, albeit one in which it did emerge victorious. However, there wasn’t a whole lot for the Gators to feel good about in a 24-7 win over Massachusetts as a 34.5-point home favorite. McElwain’s squad had to win the fourth quarter 14-0 to put the game on ice. The 31 combined points never threatened the 51.5-point total, easily staying ‘under.’ Making matters worse, juco transfer WR Dre Massey was injured in the first quarter and is ‘out’ for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
-- On the bright side, UF didn’t have star junior cornerback Teez Tabor, who was a third-team All-American selection last year when he had 40 tackles, one sack, three TFL’s, 14 passes broken up, four interceptions and a pair of pick-sixes. Tabor was serving a one-game suspension along with back-up TE C’yontai Lewis for getting into a fight at practice in late August. Both players are set to return vs. UF. Also, WR C.J. Worton has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after missing the opener with a sprained ankle. Worton, who had a TD catch in last year’s 29-15 loss to Alabama at the SEC Championship Game, had a big offseason and is expected to make major contributions this year, especially now that Massey is out of the mix.
-- UF had a 363-187 advantage over the Minutemen in total offense. Luke Del Rio was sharp with 29 completions in 44 attempts for 256 yards and two TDs without an interception. Del Rio had a 12-yard TD pass to Antonio Callaway and a 26-yard scoring strike to Brandon Powell. Callaway had eight catches for 72 yards, while Powell had seven receptions for 73 yards. Jordan Scarlett rushed 13 times for a team-high 70 yards.
-- Kickoff on CBS is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Arkansas at Texas Christian**
-- As of early Friday, most spots had TCU (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) listed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5 points. The Razorbacks were +250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250). For first-half plays, the Horned Frogs were favored by four with a total of 29.5.
-- Arkansas (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) went down in Week 2 at home against Toledo last year, and it nearly found itself the victim of another upset at home in last week’s opener against Skip Holtz’s La. Tech squad from out of Conference USA. Bret Bielema’s squad captured a 21-20 win thanks to a four-yard TD pass from Austin Allen to Jeremy Sprinkle on a fourth-and-goal play with 6:37 remaining. In Allen’s first career start, the junior QB who is the younger brother of Brandon, who had a 30/8 TD-INT ratio for the Hogs last year, completed 20-of-29 throws for 191 yards with two TDs and two interceptions. Keon Hatcher, the team’s leading receiver in 2014 who was off to a great start in ’15 before going down with a season-ending knee injury in the loss to Toledo, made a successful return by catching six balls for 86 yards. Drew Morgan had five receptions for 47 yards, while Rawleigh Williams had 24 carries for 96 yards and one TD.
-- TCU started the season with a 59-41 win over South Dakota St. as a 34.5-point home favorite. We should note that South Dakota St. is currently ranked No. 12 in the FCS Top 25 after being tabbed at No. 14 in the preseason poll. These teams were tied at 24-24 at halftime. The game featured five lead changes and two ties. When TCU went ahead 45-31, the Jackrabbits answered with 10 straight points to pull within four with 11:57 remaining. Only then did the Horned Frogs put the game away with a pair of TD drives.
-- TCU produced 35 first downs and 662 yards of total offense vs. SD St., but it gave up 461 yards and was minus one in the turnover department. The Frogs also had 12 penalties for 125 yards.
--Kenny Hill, TCU’s starting QB after sitting out last year following his transfer from Texas A&M, connected on 33-of-49 passes for 439 yards with two TDs and two interceptions. Hill, who was the favorite in terms of odds at offshore books to win the Heisman Trophy late in September of 2014, also had seven rushes for 45 yards and three TDs. RB Kyle Hicks had 15 carries for a team-best 59 rushing yards and two TDs. WR Taj Williams, a juco transfer, had 11 receptions for 158 yards and one TD. KaVontae Turpin, the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in ’15, had an 81-yard punt return for a TD. Also, Turpin had seven catches for 62 yards and a 33-yard gain on his only rushing attempt.
-- TCU finished ’15 with an 11-2 record after going 12-1 in ’14. The Frogs returned three starters on offense and eight on defense.
-- Arkansas has lost five consecutive road openers and 10 of its last 12.
-- During Bielema’s first three seasons at the helm, Arkansas has compiled a 7-4 spread record as a road underdog. In fact, the Hogs went 4-0 ATS in such spots last year and have covered the number in five straight as road puppies.
-- Since 2006, TCU owns a 33-21-1 spread record as a home favorite. The Frogs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home ‘chalk.’
-- Arkansas lost junior DB Kevin Richardson to a season-ending injury to his pectoral muscle last week. Richardson had 44 tackles, one interception and two passes broken up last year.
-- These schools haven’t met since their rivalry days in the Southwest Conference which ended in 1991.
-- ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee**
-- This SEC/ACC showdown will take place at Bristol Motor Speedway, which is located exactly halfway between the two campuses. The game has been dubbed the “Battle at Bristol,” which is expected to draw a record crowd of more than 150,000 fans. The NCAA single-game attendance record is 115,109 at The Big House in 2013 for Michigan vs. Notre Dame.
-- As of early Friday, most shops had Tennessee (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) installed as an 11-point favorite with a total of 54 points. The Hokies were available to win outright for a +350 return (risk $100 to win $350). For first-half wagers, UT was favored by 6.5 points with a total of 28.
-- Butch Jones’s team was extremely fortunate to emerge from last Thursday’s home game vs. Appalachian State unscathed. Tennessee trailed the Mountaineers 13-3 at halftime and were only able to force overtime because Appalachian St. missed an extra point in the first half and failed to convert a crucial 42-yard field-goal attempt in the fourth quarter. The Volunteers eventually won a 20-13 decision in overtime, but they never threatened to cover the number as 21.5-point home favorites. The 33 combined points easily remained ‘under’ the 58-point total.
-- Trailing 13-6 with less than 11 minutes remaining in the final stanza, UT quarterback Josh Dobbs found Josh Malone for a 67-yard scoring strike to tie the game. Then on the first possession of overtime on third and goal, Dobbs dove for the end zone and attempted to reach the ball toward the plane of the goal line. However, he was hammered by an Appalachian State defender to knock the ball loose. The ensuing scramble for the ball in the end zone was recovered by star RB Jalen Hurd for a TD. Then on fourth and five, a pass to the end zone by the Mountaineers was broken up to preserve the victory for UT.
-- Dobbs struggled last week, connecting on just 16-of-29 throws for 192 yards with one TD and one interception. He was unable to make plays with his feet like he normally does, rushing nine times for negative four yards. Hurd ran for 110 yards and one TD on 28 carries.
-- Tennessee’s Cam Sutton is one of the SEC’s best cover corners and one of the country’s top punt returners. However, his three punt returns last week netted zero yards and one lost fumble that set the Mountaineers up with a short field that led to a TD and 7-0 deficit for the Vols. Sutton made up for it, though, by getting his first interception of the season off of Taylor Lamb.
-- UT went 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS in ’15, finishing the season with six straight wins. With the return of nine starters on offense and eight on defense, this squad received a ton of hype coming into the season. Obviously, the Vols didn’t respond well in their opener.
-- Virginia Tech reached great heights during the Frank Beamer Era, but the legendary coach decided to retire after four subpar campaigns. To be clear, the Hokies didn’t hit rock bottom by any means. They still went to the postseason the last four years, winning three bowl games, but the standard double-digit win totals were gone with 8-5 in ’13 serving as the best record.
-- With Beamer out, Virginia Tech made an excellent hire by signing Justin Fuente, who turned a moribund Memphis program into a winner fast. After going 4-8 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, Fuente led the Tigers to a 10-3 record in 2014. Then last season, they went 9-3 with Fuente during the regular season, reaching as high as No. 15 in the national rankings after an 8-0 start that included a 37-24 home win over 13th-ranked Ole Miss.
-- Virgnia Tech beat Liberty by a 36-13 count in its opener last week at home, but it was nowhere close to covering the 32-point spread. The 49 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 58-point tally. The Hokies actually trailed 13-10 late in the second quarter after Liberty took the lead thanks to a 71-yard fumble return for a TD.
-- Junior QB Jerod Evans, a juco transfer, had a stellar debut. Evans completed 20-of-32 passes for 221 yards and four TDs without an interception. He also rushed for a team-high 46 yards on just five carries. Junior WR Isaiah Ford, a first-team All-ACC selection last season, had 11 receptions for 117 yards and one TD. Bucky Hodges, second-team All-ACC selection as a sophomore TE in ’15, had three catches for 42 yards and two TDs.
-- Virginia Tech returned eight starters on offense and seven on defense from last year’s 7-6 team that beat Tulsa 55-52 at the Independence Bowl.
-- These schools haven’t met since the 2009 Chick-fil-A Bowl when Beamer’s Hokies blasted UT in its last game with Lane Kiffin as head coach, 37-14. Virginia Tech easily took the cash as a 5.5-point ‘chalk.’
-- Since 2011, Virgnia Tech has only been a double-digit underdog four times, going 2-2 ATS with one outright win (35-21 at Ohio St. in Week 2 of 2014).
-- Tennessee owns a 7-7 spread record as a double-digit ‘chalk’ on Jones’s watch.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:20:37 GMT -5
NCAA Football Betting Odds: Week 2 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews
Why, Iowa, why!?
Arguably the worst contract in college football among head coaches entering the 2015 season belonged to Iowa's Kirk Ferentz. He was owed $4 million a season through 2020 and had a massive contract buyout if fired (75 percent of remaining salary). Plus, I think the state had to make him governor or something if Ferentz was canned. It was a Charlie Weis-level (Notre Dame version) ridiculous deal.
Thanks to an incredibly easy schedule in 2015, Iowa finished the regular season at 12-0 and won the Big Ten West with Ferentz taking Big Ten Coach of the Year honors. But predictably, the Hawkeyes lost in the Big Ten Championship Game to Michigan State and then equally predictably were blasted by Stanford in the Rose Bowl.
Ferentz must have incriminating photos of someone important in the state of Iowa, or beating Miami of Ohio has much more significance than I'm aware of because this week the school decided to extend Ferentz's deal through 2025 and up his salary to $4.5 million annually. Ferentz would also receive a $1.5 million bonus for winning a national title, $375,00 for making the College Football Playoff and $250,000 for winning a Big Ten title. The buyout remains prohibitive.
Truly baffling.
Ferentz is a solid coach, no doubt, and is tied with Oklahoma's Bob Stoops as the longest-tenured at one school in the FBS as both were hired in 1999. But why do this? I have nothing against Iowa and actually had a fun weekend in Iowa City once. But I am so rooting for the Hawkeyes to lose at home to Iowa State on Saturday. I doubt that happens as the Hawkeyes are 15-point favorites and ISU lost to FCS school Northern Iowa in Week 1 in Matt Campbell's coaching debut at ISU. But the road team has won the past four in this series.
Here are some news, notes and any major line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.
Ohio at Kansas (-3, 59.5): This has the biggest line move of the week as it opened with the Bobcats at -2, but KU is taking huge action after ending a 15-game losing streak with a 55-6 win over FCS pushover Rhode Island in Week 1 to give second-year coach David Beaty his first win at the school. The Kansas defense was the nation's worst in 2015 but allowed only 219 yards of offense. Beaty used a two-quarterback system of Montell Cozart and Ryan Willis, and both played well, combining for five TD passes. The 399 yards in the air were the most for Kansas since having 498 yards against Missouri in 2009. The 55 points scored were the most since a 76-point outburst against Nebraska in 2007. The QB rotation will stay in place for now. KU played Rhode Island without four projected starters, but they all could return here: wideout Jeremiah Booker, offensive tackle Jordan Shelley-Smith, linebacker Marcquis Roberts and defensive tackle D.J. Williams. Ohio was a bowl team last year from the MAC but lost 56-54 in triple OT at home to Texas State in Week 1.
Wofford at No. 19 Ole Miss (-42, 56.5): Obviously there's no question that the Rebels will win this game against FCS school Wofford. But I might take the points for a few reasons. First, Ole Miss is on a short week after blowing a 28-6 lead and being dominated in the second half of Monday night's game in Orlando against Florida State. Second, the Rebs could be looking ahead to next week's SEC opener at home against No. 1 Alabama, a team that Ole Miss has beaten twice in a row. Third, Mississippi lost two players to season-ending injuries against the Seminoles: starting cornerback Ken Webster and No. 2 running back Eric Swinney, a highly-touted prospect. Webster started every game at cornerback last season for the Rebels and tied for third on the team with 12 passes defended. Ole Miss already had lost its top projected running back for the season, Jordan Wilkins, back in August for academic reasons.
Arkansas State at Auburn (-19.5, 54.5): This line has risen two points. The Tigers played fairly well in Week 1, losing 19-13 at home to No. 2 Clemson. I should say played fairly well defensively. Embattled head coach Gus Malzahn used all three of his quarterbacks -- Sean White, Jeremy Johnson and John Franklin III -- and they combined to go 15-for-30 for 175 yards and two picks. White started that game but gave way to Johnson after two series. Auburn also had five three-and-outs on its first six possessions of the game while rotating the quarterbacks in and out. Malzahn says White is his guy going forward but that Franklin is the No. 2 guy for now. A lot of people thought Franklin, a former FSU player and JuCo transfer, would win the job in fall camp. Malzahn's first head coaching gig was with Arkansas State, where he spent just the 2012 season after going 9-3. The Red Wolves lost their opener 31-10 to Toledo. Several players reportedly had to visit the hospital this week due to a virus sweeping through the team. A-State has never defeated a team while it was a member of the SEC.
Boston College at UMass (+16.5, 39): Two interesting betting notes from this battle of neighbors: the total is the smallest on the board and UMass is the biggest home dog. BC leads the all-time series 19-5 and won the most recent matchup 30-7 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro in 2014. That's where this game is as UMass plays some of its home games there. The Eagles have won the past eight meetings between the two schools that are separated by about 90 miles. BC opened the season in Ireland with a 17-14 loss to Georgia Tech, allowing a 4-yard TD run by the Jackets with 36 seconds left. Going back to last season, Boston College has lost each of its last three games by a field goal. The BC defense was No. 1 nationally in 2015 and looked great again in holding Tech to 238 yards. But the Eagles turned the ball over three times. UMass played quite well in a 24-7 loss at Florida. The Gators led just 10-7 entering the fourth.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:20:59 GMT -5
NCAAF
Saturday’s best 13 games
Arkansas (-21) held off La Tech 21-20 LW; yardage was 297-291. Hogs are 7-4 as road underdogs under Bielema (4-0 LY), 8-6 in non-SEC games. TCU held off South Dakota State 59-41 LW; it was 24-all at half. Jackrabbits threw ball for 333 yards. Frogs are 10-2 as home favorites last two years; their new QB is transfer from Texas A&M. SEC teams are 10-9-1 in last 20 games against Big X teams.
Penn State-Pitt are meeting for first time since 2000; Nittany Lions are 0-8 vs spread on road under Franklin- they outgained Kent St LW, 354-279 in game they led 16-13 at half. Pitt beat I-AA team 28-7 but gained only 261 yards. Panthers are 4-7 as home favorites last two years; since ’11, they’re 11-16 in non-league games. Over last decade, PSU is 5-14 as road underdog. Big 14 teams are 8-4-1 vs ACC teams the last two years.
Wake Forest lost its last four games with Duke (0-3-1 vs spread), losing three of four by 7 or less points. Deacons are 6-1 in last seven visits here. Wake beat Tulane 7-3 LW, despite Green Wave outgaining them 280-175; Deacons are 7-9 as road dogs under Clawson. Duke has a new QB; they’re 13-7 as home favorites since 2012 (1-4 LY).
Florida won its last 19 games with Kentucky, but last two years were 36-30/14-9. Wildcats are 5-4 vs spread in last nine visits to the Swamp. Kentucky blew 35-10 lead in home loss to Southern Miss LY; USM ran for 262 yards, had 33 first downs. Wildcats are 7-18 in last 25 games as a road dog. Florida beat UMass 24-7 LW but game was 10-7 in 4th quarter; Gators are 6-15 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Mississippi State lost at home to South Alabama last week; they lost 34-16 (+12) in last meeting with South Carolina, back in 2013. Bulldogs blew 17-0 lead LW, then missed GW FG at gun; they’re 19-12 as home faves under Mullen. Gamecocks won 13-10 at Vandy LW after trailing 10-0 in 4th quarter; they’re 8-6 in last 14 gaes as a road underdog.
Tennessee survived Appalachian State in OT LW; they trailed 13-3 at half- yardage was 319-292. Vols have 17 starters back and QB with 24 starts. Virginia Tech has new coach, new QB but return 15 starters; Hokies are 6-3 as underdogs the last three years. This game is being played at Bristol Motor Speedway; crowd of 150,000 is expected. Last 5+ years, SEC teams are 27-20 vs ACC teams.
Iowa State lost to I-AA Northern Iowa LW; UNI had 232 rushing yards, but Cyclones won last two visits here, in rivalry where road team won last four meetings. Dogs are 10-5 vs spread in series. Iowa jogged over Miami Ohio LW but allowed 449 yards; Hawkeyes are 8-17 vs spread in last 25 games as a home favorite. Over last 10+ years, they’re 13-30 when laying double digits. Last 5+ years, Big X teams are 10-7 vs spread when facing Big 14 teams.
USC got waxed 52-6 by Alabama LW, has Stanford/Utah on deck; how do they react here, vs Utah State team that is 4-6 as road dog under Wells, after being 23-9 as AU the six years before that. Trojans are 8-13 as double digit favorites the last four years, but 8-5 as HFs last two years. Utah State routed a I-AA team last Thursday; this game is more about how USC reacts to last week. Pac-12 teams are 10-5-1 in last 16 games vs Mountain West clubs.
New Mexico won its last four games with New Mexico State, but the dog is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven series games. Lobos won 38-35/27-14 in last two visits here- they’ve run ball for 419 ypg in last four meetings. State is 6-11-2 as home dogs the lst four years; they gave up 289 rushing yards in 38-2 (+10) loss at UTEP LW. Lobos are 2-0-1 as road favorites under Davie, 2-1 as double digit favorites.
Utah won last five games with in-state rival BYU, last of which was 35-28 (-2.5) win in Las Vegas Bowl LY, when Utes almost blew its 35-7 halftime lead. Since 2011, Utes are 11-13 as home favorites. BYU won 18-16 at Arizona LW; Cougars are 9-4 in last 13 games as a road underdog.BYU outgained Arizona 415-328 LW, was +2 in turnovers, still needed a last-minute FG to win.
Washington State opened with loss to I-AA team for second year in row; Coogs are 14-6 as road underdogs under Leach- they are 4-4 as double digit underdogs in Leach era. Boise is 6-7 as home favorite under Harsin, 20-29 since 2008; they threw for 426 yards with no turnovers in easy win at UL-Lafayette LW. Teams last met in 2001. Pac-12 teams are 10-5-1 in last 16 games vs Mountain West clubs.
Texas Tech (+14) upset Arizona State 37-23 in Holiday Bowl three years ago; Red Raiders are 5-5 as road dogs under Kingsbury, 5-6 in non-league games. Tech has more experienced QB here. ASU is 14-9 as home favorite under Graham; they’re 4-8 vs spread in last 12 non-conference games. Both teams whacked I-AA stiffs in tuneups LW. Big X teams are 12-6 vs Pac-12 squads last 5+ years.
San Diego State (+13) lost 35-7 at California LY, outgained 485-325; Aztecs are 7-9 as home favorites last three years- they’re 9-17 in non-league games under Long. Cal won its opener in Australia; Bears are 8-10 as road underdogs under Dykes, 5-3 in last eight non-league games. Pac-12 teams are 10-5-1 in last 16 games vs Mountain West clubs.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:21:17 GMT -5
'College Football Week 2'
Central Florida Knights at Michigan Wolverines September 10, 12:00 EST
Two squads off resounding opening wins meet in Ann Arbor when Michigan Wolverines host Central Florida Knights. Wolverines thrashed Hawaii 63-3 as 38.0 point favorites in Wk1 recording its largest margin of victory since beating Northwestern 69-0 in 1975. The Knights crushed South Carolina State 38-zip covering the 26.0 point spot.
Wolverines off its dominant performance on both sides of the ball are handing Knights 35 points of offense. Tread cautiously, this is dangerous betting territory for Wolverines as they're 3-4 ATS in front of the home audience laying 30.0 or more points, 3-6 ATS in September while Knight's enter on a 19-8 ATS road stretch vs a team with a winning home record. Road dog worth a shot here.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish September 10, 3:30 EST
Fighting Irish dropping its opener at Texas 50-47 as a 3.5-point road favorite look to get back to winning ways when they host Nevada who opened with a 30-27 victory over Cal Poly-SLO but falling miles short as 27.5-point home chalk.
According to current odds the Irish are -28.0 point home favorites. Rather generous, Fighting Irish have not been a peg to hang your hopes on when laying twenty or more at home posting a vig-losing 3-3 mark against the betting line. Fighting Irish are also 0-4 against the number during Brian Kelly's tenure prior to a game against Michigan State.
Best of luck, but above all enjoy the games
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:21:36 GMT -5
'Volunteers the choice'
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Tennessee Volunteers September 10, 8:00 EST
The Hokies' and Volunteers' clash at Bristol Motor Speedway in what is anticipated to be the highest attended college football game in history. According to current odds the Volunteers are 11.5 point favorites at this neutral site venue.
Tennessee off a lackluster performance last week in scratching out a 20-13 OT win against Appalachian State as 21.5 point home favorites certainly raises questions surrounding Volunteers who many considered to be a threat for an SEC East title with its eighteen returning starters. However, the best thing faithfull Tennessee fans and those with a penchant for sports gaming can do about the poor performance, is 'Forget About It'.
The Volunteers are too talented and experienced to be flat out bad two weeks in a row and have shown they can right the ship after a dismal showing. In each of Volunteers' last four games scoring 20 or less the squad has come out firing on all cylinders average 47.0 points/game with a 16.5 point winning margin going 4-0 SU/ATS in those contests. Matching that, Volunters are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. Lay the points knowing Hokies aren't a peg to hang your hopes on in non-conference games (7-17-2 ATS) or in neutral site games (2-6-1 ATS).
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:22:06 GMT -5
Tech Trends - Week 2
By Bruce Marshall
Saturday, Sept. 10
Matchup Skinny Edge
BOSTON COLLEGE at UMASS... UMass 3-5 as dog LY and "under" 11-5 last 16 since late 2014. BC however has been a dismal road favorite for years, just 4-15 in role since 2006, and Eagles 1-4 as chalk LY. Eagles "under" 13-3 last 16.
"Under" and slight to UMass, based on "totals" and team trends.
ARKANSAS at TCU...Old SWC foes! Bielema 9-2 as dog since 2014, 7-2-1 last 10 vs. non-SEC. Frogs 10-3 as home chalk since 2014 but only 2-4 vs. line against non-Big 12 since LY.
Arkansas, based on Bielema dog trends.
RICE at ARMY...Bailiff 2-7-1 vs. line last 10 after WKU loss. Road team however has covered last two years in this series. Owls 2-9-2 as dog since 2014. Army 0-3 as Michie chalk LY.
Slight to Rice, based on series road trend.
OHIO at KANSAS...Solich only 2-6-1 as visiting chalk since 2012, though 12-7-1 overall as chalk since 20013. Jayhawks on 4-11 spread skid since late 2014 and were 1-6 vs. line at Lawrence LY.
Ohio, based on KU woes.
UCF at MICHIGAN...Knights entered 2016 on 2-11 spread skid, and this is first road game for Frost. UCF 2-7 as DD dog past two years but note rotten 2015 and possible distortion, including 0-4 vs. line non-conf. LY. Harbaugh 5-3 as DD chalk since LY.
Slight to Michigan, based on recent UCF woes.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at MISSOURI...Mizzou 3-5 as home chalk during past two years of Pinkel regime. This is Odom home debut, but Tigers were only 1-6 laying DDs past two seasons. EMU 3-3 as DD dog LY and was 3-1 vs. line non-MAC LY.
EMU, based on team trends.
OLD DOMINION at APPALACHIAN STATE...App rolled 49-0 LY. ODU only 8-17 vs. line since 2015. App however only 4-7 as Boone chalk past two years.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.
PENN STATE at PITTSBURGH... James Franklin was 0-5 as dog with Nittany Lions LY and was 1-10 vs. line away from Happy Valley past two seasons. Narduzzi however only 1-5 vs. line at home LY.
Pitt, based on Penn State road woes with Franklin.
CINCINNATI at PURDUE...Hazell 2-7 as Ross-Ade dog past two years, as Boilermakers have fared much better on road since 2014. Tuberville 4-2 as visiting chalk since 2014.
Cincy, based on Purdue home negatives.
BALL STATE at INDIANA...Cards were a very good road dog for most of the Lembo years (12-5 from 2011-14) before fading to 1-4 in role LY, but now 1-0 in role for Neu. IU very middling in almost all spread categories for Wilson.
Ball State, based on extended trends.
ULM at OKLAHOMA...Matt Viator (sounds like a superhero) the new HC for Warhawks. ULM has covered its last three getting 30 or more. OU 1-2 last three years laying 30 or more.
Slight to ULM, based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at OKLAHOMA STATE...Gundy just 5-7 last 12 as DD chalk. Bonamego continued recent CMU dog success in his debut LY, 5-2 as short and Chips now 9-4 in role since 2014. CMU also 5-1 vs. spread last six vs. Non-MAC.
CMU, based on team trends.
AKRON at WISCONSIN...Chryst 3-4 as Madison chalk LY, Badgers 6-8 in role past two years. Bowden covered last five and 8 of last 10 LY and was 5-2 last seven vs. line away from home.
Akron, based on team trends.
NC STATE at EAST CAROLINA...ECU was 1-6 vs. line last seven at home in the Ruffin McNeill era. But Pirates 3-0 as home dog since 2012. NCS however 4-0 as road chalk LY and Doeren 9-3 last 12 as chalk, also 7-01 last 8 vs. spread non-ACC.
NC State, based on team trends.
TULSA at OHIO STATE...Tulsa inside-out deluxe LY for Montgomery, 7-0 vs. line away (1-5 at home)! Meanwhile, Urban Meyer 2-8 last 10 as Big Horseshoe chalk.
Tulsa, based on team trends.
TROY at CLEMSON...Troy 4-1 as road dog for Neal Brown LY, now 10-5-1 as DD dog dating to 2012 and the late part of the Blakeney era. Dabo only 3-4-1 laying DD in 2015 and just 6-6-1 last 13 as Death Valley chalk.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at SOUTH FLORIDA...USF roared down the stretch last season, now 9-1 vs. line last 10 in regular season. Bulls 7-0 vs. spread at Raymond James since LY! NIU however 5-1 as visiting dog since 2014 and 16-4 vs. spread as visitor since 2013.
Slight to USF, based on team trends.
WAKE FOREST at DUKE... Duke has won last four SU in series and is 4-0-1 vs. line last five vs. Deacs. Clawson 3-2 as road dog LY. Cutcliffe recent great Durham chalk mark (12-3 2012-14) faded LY when Blue Devils fell to 1-4 vs. line as home chalk.
Slight to Wake Forest, based on recent trends.
UCONN at NAVY...Mids covering numbers as Annapolis chalk (7-1 in role since LY) and Niumatalolo now 12-5 in role since 2013. Navy now on 14-6 spread run including win and cover at UConn LY. Under Diaco, Huskies just 3-9 vs. spread away from home.
Navy, based on recent trends.
UTEP at TEXAS...Charlie 3-3 as DD chalk past two years. Kugler however only 4-12 as DD dog since taking over at UTEP in 2013, though Miners 9-9 as dog last two years after 0-9 mark in 2013!
Slight to Texas, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at AUBURN...Malzahn just 4-15 vs. spread last 19 since midway in 2014 season. Tigers no covers last 8 as Jordan-Hare chalk. Ark State only 3-5 as dog for Blake Anderson and 2-6 last eight vs. line against non-Belt foes.
Arkansas State, based on recent Malzahn negatives.
GEORGIA STATE at AIR FORCE... After 6-0-1 spread run to close last season, GSU no wins or covers last two. Though Panthers 15-4 as visiting dog since 2013. Falcs 9-3-1 against line at Falcon Stadium since 2014.
Slight to GSU, based on team trends.
UTSA at COLORADO STATE...UTSA has faded since late in the Coker regime, now on 7-16 spread skid. Though one of those covers vs. CSU LY. Bobo was 2-0 as home chalk LY and that has been a good role for Rams lately, now 12-3 as Ft. Collins chalk since 2012 and the McElwain years.
CSU, based on recent UTSA negatives.
KENTUCKY at FLORIDA...No UK SU wins over Florida since 1986, when Jerry Claiborne beat Galen Hall! Gators have covered 8 of last 9 meetings. Stoops just 3-6 as road dog the past two years. McElwain only 1-4 as home chalk for Gators since LY but was still 8-5-1 vs. line overall in 2015 and 29-14-1 last 44 on board since late 2012 with CSU.
Florida, based on series trends.
NEVADA at NOTRE DAME...Pack choked big-time last trip to South Bend with Kaepernick in 2009, losing 35-0. Polian however is 7-1 as dog away from Reno past two seasons, and 5-1 as DD dog that span. Brian Kelly only 2-4 laying DD in 2015, 4-12 in role since 2013.
Nevada, based on team trends.
IDAHO at WASHINGTON...Vandals 10-1 as away dog the past two seasons! Also 4-1 as dog getting 21 or more. Petersen 2-0 laying DD since 2015.
Slight to Idaho, based on Vandal road dog marks.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at ALABAMA...Nick was just 2-5 as home chalk LY and 3-7 last 10 in role. Bama just 10-10 laying DD since 2014, and is 1-3 vs. line in game two last four seasons. Brohm on 13-6 spread run after Rice romp.
WKU, based on recent Bama home chalk woes.
MTSU at VANDERBILT...Derek Mason now 2-5 as chalk with Vandy after SC loss. Dores now "under" 13-1-2 last 16 after snoozer vs. Gamecocks! MTSU "under" 9-5 last 14.
"Under" and MTSU, based on "totals" and team trends.
VIRGINIA at OREGON...Dog role was good for Cavs in late stages of Mike London era, 12-4 last three years as short. Also 7-0 as DD dog past two years! Bronco 12-7 as dog past five years at BYU. Ducks 2-6 as Autzen chalk since LY.
Virginia, based on team trends..
SOUTH CAROLINA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Muschamp now 8-3-1 as dog since 2012 with Gators & SC. Cocks were 8-3 as dog from 2012-14. SC also now 13-4 "under" last 17 since late 2014.
SC and "under," based on Muschamp dog and 'totals" trends.
FAU at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Canes were 7-2-1 as Hard Rock chalk the past two years with Al Golden and Larry Scott, though Richt was just 11-15 in role past four years with Georgia. FAU has continued as solid dog, now 9-5 since 2014 and 23-9 in role since 2012.
FAU, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA TECH vs. TENNESSEE (at Bristol Super Speedway, TN)...Battle of Bristol! Fuente 4-0-1 as dog past two years with Memphis. Hokies did not have a winning spread mark during Beamer's last five seasons (last VPI win spread mark was 10-4 in 2011). Butch was 6-3 as chalk LY but failed first try in role TY vs. App State.
Virginia Tech, based on Fuente dog mark.
SMU at BAYLOR...SMU has lost by 45 and 35 the past two years vs. Baylor but squeezed a cover out of LY's 56-21 loss. Chad Morris 3-6 as dog LY and Mustangs 7-14 in dog role since 2014. Baylor only 2-4 as Waco chalk LY but Bears were 14-5-1 laying DD the previous two years.
Baylor, based on team trends..
IOWA STATE at IOWA...Matt Campbell introduced to Cy-Hawk rivalry! Cyclones are 8-1 vs. line last nine vs. Hawkeyes at Iowa City. Campbell covered his last three as dog at Toledo. Ferentz 8-18 as Nile Kinnick chalk since 2012.
Iowa State, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at ILLINOIS...Fedora rolled Illini by 48-14 count LY. Heels 6-2 vs. spread last 8 as visitor. Illini just 6-11 as dog the past two seasons with Beckman and Cubit prior to Lovie.
UNC, based on team trends.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN at SOUTH ALABAMA...Jags 3-8-1 vs. line at home since 2014. GSU has romped past USA past two seasons by 22 and 38 points. Eagles 5-2 as visiting chalk since 2014.
GSU, based on team and series trends.
WYOMING at NEBRASKA...Wyo was 4-2 as visiting dog LY and 7-4 as DD dog for Bohl. Huskers 7-12 as Lincoln chalk since 2013, and Mike Riley 4-10 as home chalk with Beavers and Huskers past three seasons, and his teams are 6-15 vs. line at home since 2013.
Wyoming, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Matt Wells just 5-8 as dog at USU but did cover at SC in 2013. Utags just 4-7 vs. line last 10 vs. non-MWC. Trojans 7-4 as Coliseum chalk past two seasons. Note Trojans 10-3 vs. spread last 13 after a SU loss.
Slight to USC, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Bob Davie 11-5-1 vs. line on road since 2013. Davie 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 vs. line against Ags since 2012. NMSU 6-11-1 vs. number as home dog since 2012.
New Mexico, based on team trends.
BYU at UTAH...Whittingham now 2-6 last eight as home chalk after non-cover vs. SUU. Utes however have covered last four in series. Cougs were 12-7 last five years as dog for Mendenhall.
BYU, based on recent Utah home woes.
WASHINGTON STATE at BOISE STATE...Harsin only 6-7 as home chalk past two seasons in charge of Broncos. Boise 11-20 vs. spread on blue carpet since 2011. Leach 5-1 as road dog LY, and 19-12 as dog since 2012.
WSU, based on team trends.
UNLV at UCLA...Rebs 10-4 as road dog the past three seasons, turning around what were some bad numbers. Mora 3-8 as Rose Bowl chalk since 2014, 2-8 last 10 as DD chalk (though one of those covers at UNLV LY).
UNLV, based on team trends.
TEXAS TECH at ARIZONA STATE...Kingsbury 5-1 last six as dog in reg season away from Lubbock. Red Raiders also 11-6-1 last 18 on board since late 2014 and "over" 11-3 last 14. Todd Graham 4-8 vs. spread last 12 against non-Pac 12 foes.
Texas Tech, based on recent trends.
CAL at SAN DIEGO STATE...Sonny Dykes 1-4 as dog LY (after 6-2 in 2014, and 12-6 at La Tech between 2010-12). Golden Bears 6-10 last 16 on board after Hawaii opener. But Rocky Long only 2-4 as home chalk LY and 3-7 vs. spread against non-MW since 2014.
California, based on team trends
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Post by Gooba on Sept 10, 2016 7:22:28 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
CFB*|*BALL ST*at*INDIANA
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is greater than or equal to 31.5 off a double digit road win, when playing on a Saturday
59-26*since 1997.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units*)
CFB*|*SMU*at*BAYLOR
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is greater than or equal to 31.5 off a double digit road win, when playing on a Saturday
59-26*since 1997.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units
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