SAS Sunday Gameday

Tech Trends - Week 1
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Sept. 11

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Falcs lost and failed to cover both vs. Bucs LY after sweeping TB in 2014. Atlanta closed 2014 on 2-10 spread slide and was just 1-5 as home chalk for Quinn, and now 2-8 as Georgia Dome favorite since 2014. Falcs also "under" 13-3 LY and 24-9 last 33 since late 2013.
Tech Edge: Bucs and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

MINNESOTA at TENNESSEE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Under Mularkey, Titans were just 2-7 SU and vs. line LY. In fact, Titans an NFL-worst 8-27-2 vs. line since late in 2013 season. Tennessee 5-16-3 vs. line at Toyota Stadium since 2013. Vikes 14-3 vs. line LY and 24-9 vs. spread under Zimmer. Also "under 19-13 for Zimmer, "under" 6-10 away since 20143.
Tech Edge: Vikings and "Under," based on team and "totals" trends.

CLEVELAND at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Jackson and Pederson debuts! Hue 9-6-1 vs. line in his only HC season with Raiders in 2011. Browns 5-10-1 vs. points in 2015 and 3-5 as road dog after 5-1-1 road dog mark in 2014.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on Browns negatives.

CINCINNATI at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Jets 3-0 as dog LY but Bengals were 13-3-1 overall vs. spread. Marvin Lewis 7-2-1 as road chalk the past two seasons, also "under" 21-13 since 2014.
Tech Edge: Bengals and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at NEW ORLEANS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Saints "over" 21-12 last 33. Raiders 5-1 as road dog LY in their best role, also "over" 25-14-2 since midway in 2013 season.
Tech Edge: -"Over," based on "totals" trends.

SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

KC has covered 4 of last 5 vs. SD though Bolts have covered 3 of last 4 at Arrowhead. SD 18-8-2 last 30 as road dog. Chiefs "under" 20-10 last 30 as host.
Tech Edge: Chargers and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

BUFFALO at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Rex Ryan 2-4-2 vs. line away LY, his Jets and Bills teams are 8-14-3 vs. line away since late in 2012. Ravens struggled in injury-filled 2015 and were 0-6-2 as chalk. Note Harbaugh covered first five openers between 2008-12 but has failed to cover last three.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on Rex's extended negative road trends.

CHICAGO at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bears 17-28-3 vs. spread since 2013 for Trestman and Fox. Although the one role in which Bears overachieved LY was road dog (5-2-1). Texans 4-1 as home chalk LY and 5-1 overall as chalk.
Tech Edge: Texans, based on team trends.

GREEN BAY at JACKSONVILLE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Pack only 1-3 vs. line last four openers, but is 7-4 as road chalk the past two seasons. Pack also "under" 12-6 LY. Jags no covers last three openers and only 5-12-1 as home dog past three seasons, though 2-1 a year ago. Jax also "over" 11-6 last 17 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on team trends.

MIAMI at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Gase debut for Dolphins. Pete Carroll only 4-4 vs. line at home LY but was 18-6 in reg season as host from 2012-14. Dolphins 5-16 last 21 vs. line.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on extended Carroll home trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Eli 5-2 vs. line against Cowboys at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium. Last seven also "over" in series, and G-Men "over" 20-12 past two seasons. Dallas 4-11-1 vs. line LY, 1-6-1 at Arlington.
Tech Edge: Giants and "over," based on series trends.

DETROIT at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Remember Detroit started very slow in 2015, dropping 7 of first 8 SU and vs. line, before winning and covering 6 of last 8. Lions "under" 12-4 on road past two years and just 4-11 as dog since 2014. Indy "under" 7-4 last 11 at Lucas Oil.
Tech Edge: Colts and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NEW ENGLAND at ARIZONA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Belichick 12-4 as dog since 2010 but those were with Brady, who misses this game. Pats only 1-6 vs. line last 7 away LY. Belichick no covers last three openers. Arians 31-16-1 vs. spread in reg season since 2013.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on team trends.


Monday, Sept. 12

PITTSBURGH at WASHINGTON (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)

Tomlin 0-4-1 vs. line last five openers and 4-8 as road chalk since 2012. Skins "over" 7-2 last nine in 2015. Skins now "over" 12-7 last 19 since late 2014. Jay Gruden 4-1 as home dog LY.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Redskins, based on "totals" and team trends.

LOS ANGELES at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 10:20 p.m. ET)

Chip 2-1 vs. line in openers with Eagles. Niners 4-2 SU and vs. line last six vs. Rams (though 2-0 of that when SF was good in 2013). "Unders" 5-2 last seven in series. Fisher 1-2 as road chalk with Rams since 2012, also "under" 14-5-1 last 20 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: "Under" and 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Week 1 NFL

Sunday

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta– Bucs’ new DC is Mike Smith, the former Falcons’ head coach. Last three years, Falcons are 5-17 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 4-11 in last 15 games as home favorite. Last two years, Bucs are 2-9 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they swept Falcons 23-20/23-19 LY; they’ve split last four visits to Georgia Dome. Tampa Bay is 3-7 in last 10 road openers, but 4-1 vs spread as a dpg in road openers. Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road openers. Atlanta won, covered its last eight home openers; they’re 14-3 vs spread in last 17 home openers. Falcons covered last eight times they opened season at home; three of its last four home openers went under the total.

Minnesota @ Tennessee– Hill gets start at QB for Minnesota, but Bradford will be starter soon. Hill was 3-5 for ’14 Rams, his only starts since ’10. Last four years, Minnesota is 20-7 vs spread in games that have a spread of 3 or less points; Vikings open on road for 8th time in last nine years; they open a new domed stadium next week. Last three years, Tennessee is 2-8-2 vs spread in games that have spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, they’re 6-14-2 as home dogs. Minnesota won five of last six series games, with last four wins over Tennessee by 10+ points; they split two visits to Nashville, with last one in ’08. Vikings are 3-5 in last eight season openers, 4-11 in last 15 road openers; under is 9-3 in their last 12 road openers. Titans are 7-3 last 10 times they opened season at home; four of their last five season openers stayed under total.

Cleveland @ Philadelphia– Rookie Wentz gets nod at QB for Eagles, despite hardly playing in preseason (ribs). Browns started season 1-0 once in last 17 years; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11 openers, 4-7-2 in last 13 road openers. Cleveland is on their sixth coach in nine years; they’re 0-4 vs Eagles, losing its last visit to Philly 30-10 in ’08. Eagles are on third coach in four years; since ’10, they’re 11-19 vs spread in non-divisional home games. With rookie Wentz red-shirting this year, Bradford gets nod at QB ; Iggles are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 home openers; 0-7 when favored by less than eight points. Browns are 13-15-2 as road dogs last four years. Under is 6-2-1 in Eagles’ last nine home openers, 8-5 in Cleveland’s last 13 season openers.

Cincinnati @ NJ Jets– Fitzpatrick didn’t sign until an hour before training camp started, but had full camp; Jets are 7-2 vs spread as home underdogs last three years. Bengals lost last nine games vs Jets in NY/NJ area, with last series win here in 1981. Jets are 9-2 in last 11 series games, but lost 49-9 at Cincinnati in 2013 in last series game. Gang Green won last five home openers (three by 5 or less points); they’re 7-1 in last eight season openers. Bengals split last six season openers, which were all on the road. Since 2011, Cincinnati is 11-6-1 as road favorite- they are 17-5-3 vs spread in last 25 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven road openers, 3-5 in Jets’ last eight openers at home.

Oakland @ New Orleans– Former Oakland coach Allen is Saints’ new DC. Since ’08, Saints is 24-10-3 as non-divisional home favorite. Last four years, Raiders are 4-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as non-divisional road dogs. Saints won last three series games by average of 34-15– Raiders are 2-3-1 vs Saints on Bourbon Street. Oakland lost 12 of last 13 openers; since ’07, they’re 6-1-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Over last eight years, Saints are 14-8-2 as favorite of 3 or less points; they lost four of last five openers; they’re 13-5 in last 18 home openers (5-2-1 vs spread when favored in HO’s). Over is 11-5-1 in last 17 Oakland road openers, 3-9 in last 12 Superdome openers.

Chargers @ Chiefs– San Diego didn’t score TD vs Chiefs LY, losing 33-3/10-3; they lost last two visits to Arrowhead, 19-7/10-3, as KC won last four series games. Chargers are 18-8-1 as a road underdog last four years, 7-3 in last 10 AFC West road games. Chiefs are 3-7 in last 10 season openers, 5-11 in last 16 home openers; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a fave in home openers. San Diego covered its last four openers; they’re 8-5-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Since ’08, Kansas City is 13-23 as a home favorite (10-12 under Reid). Under is 19-4-2 in Chiefs’ last 25 home openers, 3-1 in Bolts’ last four road openers. Chiefs covered only eight of last 23 AFC West home games.

Buffalo @ Baltimore– Last four years, Ravens are 5-10-2 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points. Home team won last five series games; Bills lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 14-12-3 points. Buffalo covered nine of last 11 openers; they’re 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers, winning three of last five SU. Ravens lost last two home openers after 9-0 streak prior to that- they’re 13-6 vs spread as a favorite in home openers. Rex Ryan became a HC because of success Raven defense had while he was there. Buffalo is 14-10-1 in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 6-16-2 vs spread in last 24 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 4-1 in Bills’ last five road openers, 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home openers.

Chicago @ Houston– Osweiler is 5-2 as an NFL starter; he makes his Houston debut here. Texans are 7-3 as home favorites in two years under O’Brien. Fox is 10-6-1 as a road dog last five years; Bears were 5-2-1 as road underdog LY. Chicago is opening on road for first time since ’09; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine openers, 10-8 in last 18 road openers. Houston won six of its last seven openers, five of last six home openers- they’re 4-4 as favorites in HOs. Texans won all three series games, by 19-7-7 points; Bears lost 31-24 in only visit here, in 2008. Under is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 road openers, 7-4 in Houston’s last 11 home openers. Bears covered seven of last ten non-conference road games.

Green Bay @ Jacksonville– Packers lost three of last four season openers, three of last four road openers (1-4 vs spread in last five); their last five openers went over, as did eight of last ten road openers. Jaguars are 2-7 in last nine home openers, losing last four by an average of 30-9. Jags are 4-6 as an underdog in HOs. Green Bay is 7-4 as road favorite last two years, since 2011, Pack is 9-16 vs spread in non-conference road games. Jags are 5-12-1 as a home underdog under Bradley; they’re 7-18 in last 25 non-divisional home games. Under is 8-3-1 in Jaguars’ last 12 home openers. Packers are 3-2 in series; three of last four meetings were decided by 7 or less points. Pack won two of three visits here, with last trip here in ’08.

Miami @ Seattle– Biggest spread of Week 1. Since 2008, Miami is 25-14-1 vs spread in its non-divisional road games- they’re 4-7 as road underdogs last two years, Seahawks won, covered 12 of last 13 home openers- they’re 10-1 as faves in HOs. Dolphins are 3-9 in last 12 road openers, 1-6-1 vs spread as an underdog. Miami is 3-0 in last three season openers; they were underdog in two of three. Long road trip to start season; Fish won five of last six series meetings, with four of six decided by 4 or less points. Dolphins won three of last four visits here, with last one in ’04. Under is 17-5 in Miami’s last 22 road openers, including last seven in row; under is 12-2-1 in Seattle’s last 15 HOs. Last six years, Seattle is 22-11 vs the spread as a home favorite.

NJ Giants @ Dallas– Rookie QB Prescott played well in preseason; how will he do when things speed up in regular season? Cowboys won five of last six series games, winning last three here by 5-1-10 points; average total in last seven series games, 53.7. Dallas covered one of last eight home openers; since ’93, they’re 7-13 as favorite in HOs. Six of its last eight home openers were decided by 4 or less points. Giants started 0-1 last five years; they lost five of last six road openers- since ’96, they’re 8-10 as an underdog in road openers. Over is 14-2 in Giants’ last 16 road openers, 6-3 in Cowboys’ last nine home openers. Since ’07, Giants are 9-5 as a non-divisional road dog; over is 11-5 in their road gmes last two years. Big Blue fired their Hall of Fame head coach, kept two coordinators; how does that make them better?

Detroit @ Indianapolis– Lion coach Caldwell led Colts to AFC title in 2009, losing Super Bowl to Saints; Detroit is 4-7 as road dog last two years. Indy drafted four offensive linemen last spring; that is where their problems lied LY, keeping QB Luck upright. Indy is 21-26-1 as home favorite the last eight years, 12-17 in non-division games. Lions are 3-12 SU in last 15 road openers (4-8 vs spread as a dog); they allowed 27.3 ppg in last four AOs. Indy is 1-5 as a favotite in home openers, going 2-3 SU in last five. Colts won last four series games, three by 10+ points; Lions lost 30-18/31-21 in two visits here, last of which was in 2008. Over is 7-3-1 in Detroit’s last 11 road openers, 1-4 in Colts’ last five openers.

New England @ Arizona– Garoppolo starting at QB for Patriots puts this into uncharted territory; Patriots are 11-5-1 in last 17 tries as a road underdog, 8-4-1 outside their division. Arizona is 10-7-1 as home favorite under Arians; they’re 10-4-1 in last 15 non-divisional home games. Pats won 11 of last 12 season openers, winning four of last five road openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points. Arizona won last six home openers, covering four of last five- they won five of last six series openers, but lost five of last six games vs Patriots, winning 20-18 in last meeting in Foxboro, in ’12. NE won last three visits here, by 2-24-11 points. Under is 3-1 in Patriots’ last four AO’s, Cardinals’ last four HOs.


MONDAY

Pittsburgh @ Washington– Steelers lost last five road openers (0-4-1 vs spread), all by 7+ points; they lost four of last five season openers (0-4-1 vs spread), but won last five games vs Washington, last four all by 9+ points. This is only third visit here for Steelers since ’68; they split last two. Pitt is 11-20-1 as road favorite last eight years, 6-14 in non-divisional games. Under is 10-5 in their road games last two years. Redskins are 5-4 as home dog under Gruden; since ’08, they’re 12-24-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Skins lost last three season openers, three of last four home openers. Under is 7-2 in Steelers’ last nine road openers, 1-4 in Washington’s last five home openers.

Los Angeles @ San Francisco– Rams are favored despite being 1-13 in last 14 road openers, with only win 19-17 (-4) at Tampa Bay couple years ago. LA is 1-3 as road fave in Fisher era. Keenum is 5-2 in last seven starts. Since 2000, Rams are 3-13 vs spread in Week 1. 49ers are 7-3-1 as home underdog since ’09, 1-3 in last four home openers, losing in Week 1 last three years. Niners are 4-2-1 in last seven series games; Rams are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with three of last four visits decided by 3 or less points; it is much shorter road trip now than it was in those eight trips. LA outrushed 49ers 330-146 in two meetings LY; wraps will get taken off Gurley here after he hardly played in preseason. Under is 7-3 in Rams’ last 10 road openers, 9-5-1 in 49ers’ last 15 HOs, 18-6 in 49ers home games the last three years.