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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:40:12 GMT -5
Preview: Steelers (0-0) at Redskins (0-0)
Date: September 12, 2016 7:10 PM EDT
The Pittsburgh Steelers have made the postseason 16 times in 24 seasons, played in four Super Bowls and won two of them since 1992. That was also the last time the Washington Redskins made the playoffs in consecutive years.
When the two teams meet at FedEx Field on Monday night, it will be a matchup of one of the NFL's most reliable franchises versus one trying to shed a circus image that has slowly begun to change under second-year general manager Scot McCloughan.
For the Redskins, this season is about proving that they are finally building a sustainable winner. For the Steelers, 2016 is about regaining their perch atop the NFL following last year's tight AFC divisional playoff loss to Denver, the eventual Super Bowl champion.
"More Super Bowl titles," Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger said when asked his goals at age 34. "Having two is great, but I think every year every team should be striving to win it. I want to win as many as I can."
The Steelers and Redskins don't meet often. They haven't played at FedEx Field since 2008. But that night was an embarrassment for Washington - a 23-6 loss on "Monday Night Football" where Pittsburgh fans appeared to outnumber the home supporters.
In all, the Steelers have won five in a row in this series. But the Redskins are out to prove that last year's 9-7 season and playoff berth weren't flukes - even if some veteran players acknowledge they were products of a bad division in 2015.
"We have a great opportunity to go be effective and play well and that's exciting and something for our fans to be excited about," Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins said. "But, we've got to go out and prove it. We've got to go out and play well and right now, it's just talk and it doesn't mean a whole lot."
Monday's game presents many intriguing matchups, however. None is bigger than Redskins cornerback Josh Norman, the league's highest-paid player at his position, and Pittsburgh wide receiver Antonio Brown, who tied for the NFL in receptions last season with 136.
"When you look at a wide receiver in the NFL, you don't have to stop nowhere other than Antonio Brown," Norman said. "It starts and it ends with him. That's going to be a tall task to take on."
Pittsburgh is without star running back La'Veon Bell (three-game suspension) and wide receiver Martavis Bryant (one-year suspension). Those are concerns. As is a relatively young secondary that will have to slow a Redskins passing offense featuring DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, tight end Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder. That doesn't even include first-round pick Josh Doctson (left Achilles tendon), who returned to practice this week.
Steelers wide receiver Markus Wheaton also has been ruled out because of a shoulder injury. Pittsburgh will go to Washington with four receivers: Antonio Brown, Sammie Coates, Eli Rogers and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Either Coates or Heyward-Bey will replace Wheaton in the starting lineup.
"I think the first game is less about the people that you play and more about doing you," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "Us being detail-oriented from an assignment standpoint, playing hard and communicating well."
Washington made it through the regular season relatively unscathed., It lost outside linebacker Junior Galette (torn right Achilles tendon) before camp even began. But Doctson is back practicing and running back Matt Jones (separated left shoulder) is expected to play after practicing with full contact on Wednesday. Otherwise, the Redskins are healthy save for defensive end Kendall Reyes (groin).
But Washington didn't beat a single playoff team last season en route to nine wins.
No other NFC East team made it and two divisions rival (New York Giants, Philadelphia) fired their coaches. The Redskins were outclassed by Super Bowl contenders Carolina and New England in the second half of the season and decisively beaten by Green Bay in the NFC wild-card round at home.
The Steelers provide an opportunity to beat one of those reliable contenders early in the season. For Washington coach Gruden, it is a measuring stick.
"(Pittsburgh does) a great job in-house scouting and developing their guys and bringing guys into that building," Gruden said. "They've been good for a long time for a reason. They have a great scouting staff, a great coaching staff, and they're very dangerous all across the board - receiver, if a running back goes down, they've got another one coming up. They just keep refueling."
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:41:10 GMT -5
Preview: Rams (0-0) at 49ers (0-0)
Date: September 12, 2016 10:20 PM EDT
When the Los Angeles Rams visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, there will be so many major narratives surrounding this game that the key one is often lost in translation.
The Rams are back in Southern California after a 21-year stay in St. Louis. One of the most storied rivalries in football has come full circle to renew a once torrid intra-state rivalry between teams that were once the strength of the NFC West.
Ultimately, the Rams would have loved to open at home, but due to a scheduling conflict with the University of Southern California, the game is in the Bay Area as the second half of a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Kickoff is 10:20 p.m. ET.
A few months ago, this game looked like it would feature 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick and Rams No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff. But both will be on the sidelines as controversial backups.
Kaepernick received significant publicity the last two weeks for his action of sitting during the national anthem. However, lost in all the hyperbole is the play of starting quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Even before all the national media attention, which had nothing to do with on-the-field play, Gabbert won over the San Francisco locker room and head coach Chip Kelly.
"The whole body of work from April until today," Kelly said when asked what impressed him about Gabbert. "He's a good fit for what we want to get accomplished, and I have a lot of confidence in what he can do for us offensively."
Kelly said Gabbert was "very matter of fact to him," about getting the news that he was named the opening-day starter, "and let's go to work."
Gabbert's best game of his NFL career came against many of the same defensive players he will face Monday night.
In the 2015 season finale, the 49ers signal-caller threw for 354 yards and helped beat the Rams, 19-16. The defensive backfield of cornerback Trumaine Johnson, cornerback E.J. Gaines, safety T.J. McDonald and safety Maurice Alexander will need to play sound techniques and limit the deep-ball opportunities of Gabbert to wideout Torrey Smith. Smith is a true deep threat and has the speed to get behind a nicked-up Gaines. Look for cornerback Lamarcus Joyner to play a significant role if Gaines struggles in coverage.
The Rams' front defensive seven is as good as there is in the NFL. The 49ers' offensive line is a middle-of-the-road unit. The Rams defense should be looking to control the 49ers rushing attack of Carlos Hyde and force Gabbert to make throws outside the pocket.
Rams defensive tackles Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers need to be able to control the interior of the offensive line. If this duo can get Hyde, who likes to run with vertical power, to play laterally, this will allow new middle linebacker Alec Olgetree to use his speed to stop the run game.
A key matchup in this game for the 49ers offense and the Rams defense is left tackle Joe Staley going against defensive end Robert Quinn. Five and half of Quinn's 50 career sacks have come against San Francisco. Most of those sacks have been against Staley, who is one of the most technically-sound players in the NFL and will need to play his best against the Rams.
The Rams' quarterback situation is another key to the game, but that narrative is a long way from being written. The Rams gave up six draft choices to select quarterback Jared Goff, who begins the season as a third stringer. Goff, the rookie from California, will spend the first game of his NFL career in street clothes.
"He's not ready, but he's really, really made significant progress," Rams head coach Jeff Fisher said of Goff.
While Goff seems upbeat and willing to learn, the Rams made the move to mortgage the franchise because they believed the signal-caller could start from Day 1. Instead that honor goes to veteran quarterback Case Keenum.
No matter who the Rams start at quarterback for the opener, or for the rest of the season, the offense begins and ends with running back Todd Gurley. The second-year man out of Georgia tore up NFL defenses in 2015 and will be looking to add to his career totals after being healthy all offseason. The Rams will look to pound the football off-tackle behind right tackle Rob Havenstein and left tackle Greg Robinson.
The 49ers' defensive front comes into the season with major question marks. The unit already lost starting nose tackle Ian Williams for the season with an ankle injury. Starting defensive end Arik Armstead and key backup at nose tackle Glenn Dorsey are currently nursing injuries. The Rams' offensive line needs to attack rookie defensive end DeForest Buckner and see if the young player can hold his own in the NFL.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:41:41 GMT -5
Steelers or Redskins? Rams or 49ers? NFL bloggers debate who will cover Monday night
The Week 1 edition of our NFL Monday Night Debate concludes the week with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. In Act One we get two high octane passing offenses facing off when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Washington Redskins, followed an NFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Rams at the San Francisco 49ers.
If you’re still on the fence about which team to bet Monday we enlist the help of expert NFL team bloggers, who give three reasons why their side will cover the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 50)
Expert NFL bloggers Jeff Hartman of Pittsburgh blog Behind the Steel Curtain and Brent Carothers of Washington blog Burgundy Blog strap on the pads and debate which team will not only win, but cover the spread Monday night.
WHY THE STEELERS WILL COVER
Jeff Hartman is the editor of Behind the Steel Curtain. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @btsteelcurtain.
The Steelers Offense
Yes, they will be without Martavis Bryant, Le'Veon Bell and possibly Markus Wheaton, but even those absences won't spell doom for the Ben Roethlisberger led unit. Antonio Brown is the best in the business, and he and Roethlisberger's connection is second-to-none. On top of that ridiculous QB/WR duo is a RB in DeAngelo Williams who certainly is more than capable at toting the football with success.
Opportunisitc Defense
The Steelers defense might not be the dominating units from the mid-2000s, but they are an opportunistic defense. They created turnovers in 2015, and picked up where they left off in the 2016 preseason. Kirk Cousins has a tendency to be erratic at times, and look for the Steelers to take advantage of those mistakes. Any extra possessions given to the Steelers offense certainly will be trouble for Washington.
Pressure the QB
The Steelers defense has it's deficiencies, but they also put a tremendous amount of pressure on the QB. Last year the team ranked 3rd in sacks, with 48, and they all came from a variety of places. Cameron Heyward led the team with 7 sacks, which gives you an idea just how well-rounded the pass rush is under Keith Butler. Pittsburgh will get pressure in a variety of ways, and that could spell disaster for Washington, and a victory for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
WHY THE REDSKINS WILL COVER
Brent Carothers is the founder of Burgundy Blog. You can follow them on Twitter @burgundyblog and listen to the Burgundy Blogcast found on iTunes, Soundcloud, and Stitcher.
Something in the Air
“Steelers" and “defense" have been synonymous since the ‘70s, and Pittsburgh's current front, led by Cameron Hayward, looks stout as ever. Their secondary and overall pass defense, however, may be vulnerable—and the Redskins boast just the right crew of catchers to take advantage.
DeSean Jackson, fully healthy and now in a contract year, has been open all summer. Pierre Garçon and Jamison Crowder add toughness on the other side, and quickness in the slot. Can William Gay and his inexperienced, unproven colleagues at corner keep up? I have my doubts. And even the elite athleticism of Ryan Shazier will likely be futile against the razor-sharp route-running of Jordan “Easy Button” Reed.
Kirk Cousins may or may not ever become a true “franchise” quarterback, but with weapons aplenty and match-ups to exploit, he’ll probably look like one on Monday night.
Secondary Gains
On the other side of the ball, the Redskins have struggled mightily in recent years to field a defensive backfield capable of stopping or even slowing a top-notch tandem like Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. In 2016, however, this secondary won’t be tossed around.
Josh Norman arrived from Carolina with a boulder on his shoulder. The zone-coverage specialist and all-around menace has injected physicality and swagger into a previously nondescript unit. Furthermore, rising star Bashaud Breeland appears very ready to capitalize on the inevitable bump in targets to the opposite boundary. Considering also that the still-speedy DeAngelo Hall is no longer a newbie at safety, and that GM Scot McCloughan’s player-acquisition acumen has accounted for no less than 11 rosterable DBs, I rather like the Redskins’ chances of bothering Big Ben and stymying Pittsburgh’s vaunted aerial attack.
Coming of Age
Jay Gruden has improved significantly since his bumbling debut as a head coach in 2014, when the Redskins managed only four victories as he struggled (and failed) to manage Robert Griffin III. Now he has stability at the all-important QB position, a division title on his record, and the full confidence of every man in the locker room, his team having reeled off four straight wins to finish the 2015 regular season. It’s time to take John’s little bro seriously.
Consider Gruden's maturation as a leader, plus Sean McVay’s heady contributions to what has become a devastatingly well-designed offense, and perhaps most importantly the credibility lent by McCloughan to a renewed culture of competitiveness...and the Redskins just may have finally found a recipe for sustainable success.
Monday Night Football was once, and for too long, a painful showcase for Redskins ineptitude. In 2016, Jay Gruden’s group appears fully ready for primetime.
Los Angeles Rams at San Fransisco 49ers (+2.5, 42)
The second primetime matchup will be more of a slaughter than a debate, as Expert NFL blogger Ryan Sakamoto of San Francisco blog Niner Fans takes on Covers' associate Editor Andrew Caley who steps up for the Rams side. Despite the clear mismatch, the two strap on the pads to debate not just who wins, but which team will cover the spread in the contest.
Ryan Sakamato is the founder of San Francisco 49ers blog Niner Fans. You can follow him on Facebook, Twitter @sakamatoryan, and Instagram.
49ers Offensive Line
Despite being a pass-happy league in today's NFL, you still need to go back to basics and run the football. To be quite honest, the 49ers were downright awful last year in this category having played musical chairs along the team's offensive line. Fast forward to present day and a clear weakness last year has turned into a strength.
The free-agent addition of underrated zone-blocking scheme OG Zane Beadles, will provide the rock needed at the position. Something that hasn't been seen since LG Mike Iupati bolted for the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, Beadles will provide stability, consistency, and reliability from the weak-side. Then there's the wild-card in 2010 first-round pick (No. 11) T/G Anthony Davis.
A mauler in the run game with the quick feet to match, Davis should have no problem moving Rams defensive tackles off their spot (aside from DT Aaron Donald). He is very physical at the POA (point of attack) and his mean-streak demeanor should pave the way for RB Carlos Hyde to hit both the inside-zone and outside-zones with ease. Two players who will be heavily counted on in the team's run-game, look for Hyde to have an encore type performance like he did against the Minnesota Vikings, as I expect him to have a stat line around 24 carries for 90+ rushing yards and 1 TD.
49ers RB Carlos Hyde
While I fully expect this game to be a defensive struggle, and the 49ers D will need to do their part in holding the Rams to under 20 points in order to come out victorious, the key to victory is running behind their No. 1 cow-bell. Hyde, has the potential for breakout season if he cam remain healthy. He's a violent north-south runner between the tackles with the power to hit the second-level and take it to the house. Last year, Hyde did not have the best offensive line-- this year is a different story, different scheme, and different coaching style.
Look for Hyde to get the lion share of the reps, as T Joe Staley and T Trent Brown set the edge while the combo of Kilgore-Beadles-Davis impose their will down in the trenches. Whether that's attacking the Rams defensive tackles with reach blocks or spreading the defense wide with 11 personnel, look for Kelly to create favorable match-ups in this game of chess, as I expect Hyde to have a stat line around 24 carries for 90+ rushing yards, and at least 1 touchdown.
WHY THE RAMS WILL COVER
All I Really Want is Gurley's
Rams running back Todd Gurley lived up to the hype in his rookie season. The Georgia product rushed for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on just 229 rushes (4.8 yards per attempt), despite missing the first three games of the season while he recovered from a knee injury he suffered in college. Gurley enters the season as one of the few true bell cow running backs in the NFL and should get plenty of touches as he gets to go up against a 49ers defense the allowed the fourth most rushing yards in the league last year.
Dominant Donald
The Rams feature one of the most fearsome front sevens in the NFL and they are led by a beast of a defensive tackle in Aaron Donald. The third-year man out of Pittsburgh has already been to two Pro Bowls and named an All-Pro. Donald is as disruptive a force at defensive tackle as there is in the NFL after recording 69 tackles, 11 sacks, a pass defended, and a fumble recovery in 2015 and goes up against an offensive line that allowed the second most sacks last season.
A New Era
After what has seemed like endless 7-9 seasons under head coach Jeff Fisher, maybe the move to Los Angeles is just what this team needs to get reinvigorated. While it won't be as electric as their home opener next week against Seattle, the kind of new fan base and eventually a new stadium should have this young team pumped up. The NFL is just better with a team in L.A.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:42:09 GMT -5
Steelers head to D.C.
NFL Week 1 MNF Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins
Lines: Pittsburgh (-3.5); Total Set at 50.5
Two playoff teams from the 2015 season meet in the first game of the annual Week 1 MNF double header and the perception of these two teams is very different coming into 2016. On one hand we've got the Pittsburgh Steelers and a WR in Antonio Brown who fantasy gurus have been raving about all summer. Brown is even being mentioned as a potential NFL MVP candidate – a rarity for WR's – and he's just one of the many weapons the Steelers have. There are plenty of bettors out there who've also got Super Bowl futures tickets in their pocket on the Steelers as they expect this organization to go all the way in 2016.
On the other hand we've got a Washington team who won their division a season ago and almost everyone believes it was a bit of a fluke. They did catch an enormous amount of breaks in that Tony Romo went down for Dallas, the Eagles absolutely stunk and hated their head coach, and the Giants couldn't get out of their own way and cost themselves multiple games late. But you've still got to be a quality team to win your division in this league and Washington could surprise many this season by proving 2015 wasn't as “fluky” as some are led to believe.
So based on those two underlying perceptions, is this -3.5 spread a trap game for Pittsburgh backers? Is the number way too low? Or is their value in the total?
It's tough to consider any Week 1 game a “trap game” as every player across the league is amped up to get a new season started. But while some will lean that way because the Steelers have a rematch with Cincinnati on deck (after how the Wildcard game between those two rivals finished), I wouldn't be so quick to subscribe to that belief. Pittsburgh will be a very good team this year and while they could have an eye on the Bengals, there is no way they want to enter that Week 2 game with an 0-1 record.
That being said, running to the betting window and laying the points with Pittsburgh is something I'm not looking to do either, as the spread was set at this number for a reason and that nasty hook on -3 could very well come into play. Washington's got their own team to worry about and clearly they are eager to prove all their doubters wrong this year.
Therefore, it's the total I'm looking at here as the bulk of the action so far has come in on the high side of this number, yet it's moved down off the key number of 51. That's a pretty big sign to me that while everyone in the NFL betting or fantasy worlds believe Pittsburgh's offense will be one of the best in 2016, it might take them a week or two to fully get going and reach their potential. Remember, most of these starters had limited snaps over the preseason and conditioning and being in “football shape” will still take some time. It's not like Washington's defense is atrocious either and all that time to prepare for Antonio Brown and Big Ben has to help out Washington's defense here.
So rather than wrestle with the idea of this being a short spread or some type of trap game, I'm going to go ahead and follow the move here on the total and take the 'under' 50.5 points. Both of these teams will be working out the cobwebs early on, and with Pittsburgh on a 0-4 O/U run on the road and Washington on a 0-4 O/U under the Monday night lights, this game won't surpass that number.
Take Under 50.5 points.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:44:32 GMT -5
Monday Night Football betting preview and odds: Steelers at Redskins, Rams at 49ers
Week 1 of the 2016 National Football League season comes to a close with a pair of Monday Night Football games featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Washington and the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Los Angeles Rams. We have you covered with our full betting previews.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 50)
Following their surprise run to the NFC East title in 2015, expectations are heightened for the Washington Redskins as they prepare to host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night in the season opener for both teams. Washington is looking to build upon its closing run a year ago, when it finished the regular season with four consecutive victories.
"We have a great opportunity to go be effective and play well and that's exciting and something for our fans to be excited about," Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins said. "But, we've got to go out and prove it." Washington made a bold move to bolster its defense by signing Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman, setting up a marquee matchup with Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh will be without a pair of key weapons as running back Le'Veon Bell is serving a three-game suspension and wide receiver Martavis Bryant is out for the year for violations of the league's substance abuse policy. The offense should still be potent behind the leadership of two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but there are concerns over a defense that ranked 30th against the pass last season.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as three-point favorites back in April for this Monday night matchup with Washington. The point spread has stayed relatively steady throughout the summer with only a slight bump up to 3.5 back in mid-August. During the week leading up to the game, some money came back on Washington and the line was dropped down to 2.5.
The total opened at 51 in April but has come down slightly over the last few months and currently sits at 50.
POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (-3) - Washington (-1) + home field (-3) = Washington -1
KEY INJURIES (for full injury report visit matchup page):
Pittsburgh - DE C. Heyward (Probable Monday, ankle), WR M. Wheaton (Out Monday, shoulder), RB L. Bell (Out Monday, suspension), CB S. Golson (Out Monday, foot), WR M. Bryant (Out Monday, suspension) QB B. Gradkowski (Out Monday, hamstring).
Washington - WR J. Doctson (Probable Monday, achilles), RB M. Jones (Probable Monday, shoulder), RB C. Thompson (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB R. Kerrigan (Questionable Monday, groin), LB J. Galette (Out For Season, achilles).
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Monday evening in D.C. is calling for clear skies and perfect September football conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper-70's with humidity at around 50 percent.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (2015: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Once renowned for its Steel Curtain defense, Pittsburgh has evolved into an offensive juggernaut, with Roethlisberger leading the league with an average of 328.2 yards per game last season and Brown hauling in a mind-boggling 375 receptions and 31 touchdown catches in the past three years. "It starts and it ends with him," Norman said of Brown. "That's going to be a tall task to take on." DeAngelo Williams was more than a capable replacement last season while subbing for a suspended and injured Bell, rushing for 11 TDs and 907 yards. Defensive ends Stephon Tuitt and Cam Heyward and linebacker Ryan Shazier are top talents but the secondary remains suspect after yielding an average of 271.9 yards in 2015.
ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2015: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): One knock against Washington last season, aside from being the only team to finish above .500 in its division, was not beating one opponent with a winning record. Nonetheless, Cousins thrived in his first full season as the starter, becoming the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for at least 4,000 yards (4,166) and 25 touchdowns (29), and has one of the league's top tight ends in Jordan Reed, who enjoyed a breakout season with 87 receptions and 11 scores. There are questions about a ground game headed by Matt Jones, who returned to practice Wednesday after missing much of the preseason with a shoulder injury, and a defense that ranked 28th last year despite 9.5 sacks from linebacker Ryan Kerrigan.
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
* Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Redskins last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road favorite Steelers at a rate of 66 percent and the Under is picking up slightly more totals wagers with 52 percent.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 42.5)
Chip Kelly gets a second chance to find out if his revved-up offense can translate to the NFL when he guides the San Francisco 49ers into their season opener against the visiting Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. Kelly made a splashy entrance into the league with a pair of 10-win campaigns in Philadelphia but was released with one game left last season amid growing player discontent.
“I’m sure Chip’s heard the rumors,” 49ers veteran linebacker NaVorro Bowman told reporters, “and I’m sure he’s made a few changes so he doesn’t have the same comments at the end of this year.” Ironically, one of Kelly's first big decisions was choosing a starting quarterback, but backup Colin Kaepernick has garnered much of the headlines following his decision not to stand for the national anthem, setting off a wave of discourse nationally. The Rams hardly have had a quiet offseason of their own, relocating to Los Angeles after a 21-year run in St. Louis. The franchise then swung for the fences by sending a boatload of draft picks to Tennessee for the No. 1 pick overall -- used to select Jared Goff, who begins the season as the third-string quarterback.
TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: The Los Angeles Rams opened Week 1 betting back in April as 2.5-point road favorites for their matchup against the 49ers. That 2.5 points has survived free agency, the draft, the preseason, and some surprising quarterback announcements and is currently holding steady.
The total hit the betting board at 46.5 and was gradually bet down all summer to it's current number of 42.
POWER RANKINGS: Los Angeles (+3) - San Francisco (+5.5) + home field (-3) = San Francisco -0.5
KEY INJURIES (for full injury report visit matchup page):
Rams - CB E. Gaines (Questionable Monday, quadricep), LB M. Barron (Questionable Monday, undisclosed), CB T. Johnson (Questionable Monday, concussion), WR P. Cooper (Out Monday, shoulder).
49ers - DL G. Dorsey (Probable Monday, knee), RB C. Hyde (Probable Monday, concussion), DL A. Armstead (Questionable Monday, shoulder), RB S. Draughn (Questionable Monday, back), LB N. Bellore (Out Monday, knee), WR E. Rogers (Out For Season, knee).
WEATHER REPORT: Much like the early game Monday night, perfect football conditions are being forecast in the Bay Area with clear skies and temperatures in the low 70's at kickoff. Wind will not be a factor and humidity levels will be at around 75 percent.
ABOUT THE RAMS (2015: 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U): Los Angeles has an emerging superstar in second-year running back Todd Gurley, who introduced himself to the NFL by rushing for at least 125 yards in each of his first four starts. A non-existent passing game allowed defenses to focus on Gurley as his rookie season progressed, leading to coach Jeff Fisher's decision to promote Case Keenum, who won three of his last four starts. There's still a dearth of talent at wide receiver for Los Angeles, which likes to line up former first-round pick Tavon Austin in the backfield with Gurley rather than stretch defenses with the deep ball. Tackle Aaron Donald is an unstoppable force on defense for the Rams, who must replace defensive end Chris Long and linebacker James Laurinaitis.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (2015: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Blaine Gabbert started to resurrect his career after he was elevated to starter midway through last season and won the quarterback job in the preseason while Kaepernick was slow to recover from multiple surgeries. "He's a good fit for what we want to get accomplished, and I have a lot of confidence in what he can do for us offensively," Kelly said of Gabbert, who threw for 354 yards in a 19-16 win over the Rams to finish 3-5 last season. Like the Rams, San Francisco will have to cobble together a group of wide receivers, with Torrey Smith the de facto No. 1 after grabbing only 33 receptions in his first season with the 49ers. San Francisco held opponents to 20 points or fewer in seven of eight home games.
TRENDS:
* Rams are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 1.
* 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
* Under is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 vs. NFC West.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road favorite Rams at a rate of 65 percent and the Under is picking up the majority of the totals wagers with 68 percent.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:45:19 GMT -5
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Steelers (-3, 49 ½) at Redskins – 7:10 PM EST – ESPN
Pittsburgh
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 10 ½ (Under -130)
Washington
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 ½ (Over -120)
LINE MOVEMENT
There hasn’t been much change to this line when openers were released on April 15 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Pittsburgh opened up as 2 ½-point road favorites, but have moved slightly up to a field goal favorite. The total has taken a bit of a drop from its opener of 51 five months ago, falling to 50 at several books and even down to 49 ½ at others.
ROAD OPENER WOES
The Steelers haven’t fared well in their opening road game of the season, losing five consecutive times in this situation. Last season, Pittsburgh lost a 28-21 decision at New England, but managed a cover as 7 ½-point underdogs thanks to a touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown with two seconds left. In three of those losses in this span, the Steelers’ defense has allowed 28, 31, and 35 points in openers away from Heinz Field.
YOU LIKE THAT?
The Redskins were profitable in the underdog role in 2015, covering in nine of 14 opportunities when receiving points. Kirk Cousins stepped up late in the season for Washington by throwing 19 touchdown passes and two interceptions, while leading the ‘Skins to a 6-2 SU/ATS record in the final eight games and the NFC East title.
SILENT BELL
The Steelers will be without top running back Le’Veon Bell, who is suspended three games by the NFL for missing a drug test. Bell played in only six games last season before suffering a season-ending knee injury, averaged a career-high 4.9 yards a carry. DeAngelo Williams is expected to carry the load in the Pittsburgh backfield in Bell’s absence, as the veteran running back tallied 907 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2015.
O FOR GRUDEN
The Redskins have yet to win a season opener under head coach Jay Gruden, losing to the Texans in 2014 and the Dolphins in 2015. In both of those interconference matchups, Washington cashed the UNDER, while scoring a total of 16 points in those losses. However, Washington has performed well at home against AFC opponents in Gruden’s tenure by posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record.
MONDAY NIGHT MIKE
Playing under the Monday night lights hasn’t fazed Mike Tomlin and the Steelers, who have won four of their last five in this situation. Pittsburgh won in its lone Monday appearance last season, rallying past San Diego on a Bell touchdown in the final seconds of a 24-20 triumph as four-point underdogs. The Steelers are 2-3 ATS in this span, with a pair of wins in the favorite role by three points apiece at Tennessee (2014) and against Kansas City at home in overtime (2012).
RECENT MEETINGS (Steelers 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the last three matchups)
10/28/12 – Pittsburgh 27-12 vs. Washington (Pit -4 ½, 44)
11/3/08 – Pittsburgh 23-6 at Washington (Pit +1, 37 ½)
11/28/04 – Pittsburgh 17-6 vs. Washington (Wsh +10, 34 ½)
Rams (-2 ½, 42 ½) at 49ers – 10:20 PM EST - ESPN
Los Angeles
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 ½ (Under -200)
San Francisco
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS
Season Win Total: 5 ½ (Under -130)
LINE MOVEMENT
The Rams have held steady as 2 ½ point favorites since the opening numbers were released in April. The total has seen the most movement, starting at 47 and falling all the way to 42 ½ at a majority of books.
LA LA LAND
The Rams are making their return to Los Angeles this season following a 21-year stint in St. Louis. Although the Rams won’t open the season in Southern California, they travel to the northern part of the state as part of their west coast return. Top pick Jared Goff heads back to the area where he played his college football at California, but he will not start the opener for Los Angeles, as Case Keenum will make the start for the Rams. Los Angeles has not tasted a winning season since 2003, while not qualifying for the postseason since 2004.
CHIP’S SHOT
The 49ers took a major step back following Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach, as San Francisco posted a disappointing 5-11 record in Jim Tomsula’s lone season as head coach. Following Tomsula’s abrupt firing, former Eagles’ head man Chip Kelly came on to bring San Francisco’s offense around, even though the quarterback situation is unsettled. Blaine Gabbert will start Monday’s opener ahead of Colin Kaepernick, as this Niners’ offense tries to improve after scoring 20 points or less 13 times in 2015.
UNDER THUNDER
San Francisco was nearly automatic when it came to low-scoring affairs at Levi’s Stadium. In 2015, the 49ers finished UNDER the total in seven of eight home contests, while posting more than 21 points only once in Santa Clara. Both meetings against the Rams last season went UNDER, including San Francisco’s 19-16 overtime victory to close out the campaign in Week 17 on 39 total.
RAM ROUGH
The highway wasn’t friendly to the Rams last season, compiling a 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS record. Coincidentally, their two road victories came at Arizona as seven-point underdogs, 24-22 and at Seattle as 11 ½-point ‘dogs, 23-17. Four of the Rams’ six away losses came to playoff squads, which included defeats at Green Bay, Washington, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. In two opportunities as a road favorites, the Rams lost each time, as Los Angeles is listed as away chalk for the fourth time since 2011.
GOLDEN NUGGETS
The 49ers haven’t been strong inside NFC West play the last two seasons, putting together a 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS mark in this span. However, San Francisco has performed well in season openers recently by winning and covering five consecutive times in Week 1. The 49ers were in a similar spot last season as a home underdog on Monday night, shutting down the Vikings, 20-3 as three-point ‘dogs.
RECENT MEETINGS (49ers 4-2 SU and ATS the last six matchups)
1/3/16 – San Francisco 19-16 (OT) vs. St. Louis (SF +3, 39)
11/1/15 – St. Louis 27-6 vs. San Francisco (STL -7 ½, 41)
11/2/14 – St. Louis 13-10 at San Francisco (STL +10 ½, 44)
10/13/14 – San Francisco 31-17 at St. Louis (SF -3 ½, 44).
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:45:44 GMT -5
Monday Night Football Picks: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers Odds
by Alan Matthews
Let me just say a few things right off the bat about the Monday nightcap in Week 1 between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium, host of last year's Super Bowl:
1) I'm fairly confident I won't be previewing a game for either of these two teams the rest of 2016 as neither is really all that interesting and both are likely to finish below .500 -- the 49ers well below;
2) I am not going to get into 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick's antics before the National Anthem and whether I think they are right or wrong, just that I wouldn't do it. Kaepernick won't play on Monday unless starter Blaine Gabbert gets hurt, so the anthem isn't relevant;
3) ESPN wasn't going to show the anthem because it usually doesn't in a sporting event. But because it's newsworthy, the network will this time. However, I will be watching this game with the sound down because Chris Berman will be the play-by-play guy. Berman is a Hall of Fame sportscaster, but his talent is in hosting studio shows like Sunday NFL Countdown or the former NFL Primetime. He and the recently retired Tom Jackson were great in those shows, but Berman is a horrible play-by-play guy. Incidentally, this is Berman's final season at ESPN.
Rams at 49ers Betting Story Lines
If you are like me, you can't wait every summer for HBO's "Hard Knocks", and this year the Rams were the featured team. The NFL basically told the Rams they had to do it after the league approved the team's move to Los Angeles this past offseason. This is the Rams' first game that matters back as L.A.'s team since Christmas Eve 1994 when the Rams lost 24-21 at Anaheim Stadium to the Washington Redskins.
I thought the Rams vastly overpaid in draft picks to land the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft because there was no franchise QB available. And a lot of scouts thought the same thing. Yet the Rams mortgaged the future to select Cal's Jared Goff. If you watched "Hard Knocks," Goff has a long way to go. He's not only not starting this game, he won't be active. Incumbent starter Case Keenum gets the call, and his backup will Sean Mannion, a 2015 third-round pick out of Oregon State. Punter Johnny Hekker will be the emergency backup! Goff was originally the second-favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors because No. 1 overall picks almost always start from the get-go. But now Goff is +1800.
Keenum is solid, I guess, but the Rams are clearly going to run the ball a ton with Todd Gurley, the reigning Rookie of the Year. He should only be stronger one more year removed from ACL surgery. There's not much more to like on that offense. The defense should be very good and there's no better tackle in the NFL than Aaron Donald. He's the +500 second-favorite behind J.J. Watt (+300) to win Defensive Player of the Year.
I project the Rams to probably go 6-10 or so yet somehow Coach Jeff Fisher will not be fired again. The worse the Rams do, the better for the Tennessee Titans as they hold L.A.'s 2017 first-round pick.
This will be the regular-season head coaching debut with the 49ers of former Eagles coach Chip Kelly. I think Philly should have simply stripped Kelly of personnel power and kept him as coach as the team was 26-21 under him. This stop will certainly be Kelly's last chance in the NFL to succeed, but just about any major NCAA program would hire him after his Oregon success. Why do I think he will be USC's coach in two years?
The 49ers are going to be one of the NFL's worst offensive teams with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. You may not even have heard of two of three starting receivers on the Week 1 depth chart: Jeremy Kerley (just acquired in trade) and Quinton Patton. Running back Carlos Hyde has some potential but can't stay healthy. Naturally, he's coming of a concussion suffered in the team's final preseason game but is looking like he will play Monday. Hyde is +1600 to lead the NFL in rushing yards.
The San Francisco defense should be pretty solid with guys like NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, 2015 first-round pick Arik Armstead and 2016 first-rounder DeForest Buckner. This team will probably be in a lot of 24-14 games and on the wrong side of most. To have the NFL's worst record, the Niners are +600 second-favorites behind Cleveland (+400).
Rams at 49ers Betting Odds and Trends
The Rams are -2.5 (-115) with a total of 43.5. On the moneyline, the Rams are -140 and 49ers +120. Just one alternate line as of this writing, with L.A. at -3 (+110). The Rams were 2-5-1 against the spread on the road last year and 1-7 "over/under." The 49ers were 5-3 ATS at home and 1-7 O/U.
The Rams are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 in Week 1. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six on Monday. The 49ers have covered five straight in Week 1. They are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 vs. the NFC West. The under is 6-1 in the Rams' past seven. It is 8-2 in the 49ers' past 10 vs. the NFC West. The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.
Rams at 49ers Betting Prediction
The teams split last season, each winning at home. Kaepernick was still the starter in San Francisco's 27-6 loss in St. Louis in Week 8. It was Keenum vs. Gabbert in Week 17, a 19-16 49ers OT win.
This is an interesting one because I don't see the 49ers going without at least two wins in 2016. But I only give them a shot of winning in perhaps 3-4 home games (none on the road). This is one of them. I would give the 2.5 points, however. I rarely like a total better than a side in an NFL game, but I absolutely love the under here.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:47:19 GMT -5
Gridiron Angles - Week 1
By Vince Akins
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The 49ers are 0-11 O/U since Dec 04, 2005 at home when the line is within 3 of pick and vs a divisional opponent.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:47:51 GMT -5
Tech Trends - Week 1
By Bruce Marshall
Monday, Sept. 12
PITTSBURGH at WASHINGTON (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Tomlin 0-4-1 vs. line last five openers and 4-8 as road chalk since 2012. Skins "over" 7-2 last nine in 2015. Skins now "over" 12-7 last 19 since late 2014. Jay Gruden 4-1 as home dog LY.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Redskins, based on "totals" and team trends.
LOS ANGELES at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 10:20 p.m. ET)
Chip 2-1 vs. line in openers with Eagles. Niners 4-2 SU and vs. line last six vs. Rams (though 2-0 of that when SF was good in 2013). "Unders" 5-2 last seven in series. Fisher 1-2 as road chalk with Rams since 2012, also "under" 14-5-1 last 20 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: "Under" and 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:48:25 GMT -5
StatFox Super Situations
NFL*|*LA RAMS*at*SAN FRANCISCO
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games
27-7*over the last 5 seasons.**(*79.4%*|*19.3 units*)
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Post by Gooba on Sept 12, 2016 5:48:40 GMT -5
'Monday Night Football'
Week One concludes with Los Angeles Rams visiting the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. Current odds have the Rams 2.5 point road chalk.
The teams split a pair last season. In week-8 Rams defeated a shorthanded San Francisco squad 27-6 in St. Louis laying 7.5 points and in week-17 49ers' returned the favor in front of the home audience winning 19-16 in OT as 3-point pups.
Rams laying points on the road can be problematic. Rams were just 2-6 SU on the road last year scoring 15.5 points/game with a cash draining 2-5-1 record against the betting line. Additionally, Rams enter 8-15-1 ATS in enemy territory including 3-6 ATS visiting a division opponent. Rams have also lost four straight (1-3 ATS) under Monday night light's.
Despite all it's worts the 49ers managed a break even 4-4 mark in front of the home audience during 2015 cashing five of eight tickets. 49ers' have also covered five straight season openers. Matching that, 49ers' have responded in Monday Night Football winning six straight (5-1 ATS).
One final betting nugget to consider: Week-One Monday Night Home underdogs have been good bets posting a sparkling 4-1 ATS record since 2010, 7-3 ATS mark since 2002.
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mooch
Premium Member
Posts: 971 
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Post by mooch on Sept 12, 2016 17:26:46 GMT -5
Already missing Mike Tirico in the booth. The new guy is "eh".
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