NFL Week 2 News Notes & Tips

NFL Week 2 Opening Line Report: Packers will help open Vikings' new stadium as road faves
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 1 of the NFL season is almost in the books, save for the two Monday night contests. We discuss the Week 2 opening lines with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, and Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

These NFC North rivals are both coming off season-opening victories and will next square off under the Sunday night spotlight at the Vikings’ brand-spanking new U.S. Bank Stadium. Green Bay edged a game Jacksonville squad 27-23 laying 3.5 points on the road Sunday, while Minnesota bested host Tennessee 25-16 as 2.5-point chalk.

“We opened Packers -2.5 as they travel on back-to-back weeks,” Childs said. “The Packers weren’t at all impressive in their game against the Jags and easily could have lost. That said, the Vikings did all their scoring on defense, and regardless of who’s starting at quarterback against Green Bay, we see them struggling big time to score.

“The Packers, especially Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, looked a bit rusty. I believe they’ll work that out and play a much better game in Week 2. And they’d better, as the Vikings have arguably the best defense in the NFL this year.”

CG Technology also opened the Packers at -2.5.

“Green Bay is close to a touchdown better, but the Vikings’ prowess at home gives them the benefit of 3.5 points,” Simbal said.

Childs added a few other factors to note for this contest.

“It’s a rivalry game, Sunday night game, first regular-season game in the Vikings’ new stadium, so the place is going to be nuts,” he said. “The public will be squarely on the Packers here, so unless the sharps get in line to back the Vikings, this line could easily get to Packers -3.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-4)

New England is already 1-0 SU and ATS without the suspended Tom Brady, against likely the toughest opponent it will see while its star quarterback sits out a four-game suspension. On Sunday night at Arizona, the Patriots went off as 9-point underdogs and came away with a suspenseful 23-21 outright victory.

Miami also went on the road and played a very good opponent to nearly a standstill, but didn’t get the better end of the score. The Dolphins lost to Seattle 12-10 as a hefty 10.5-point underdog.

It doesn’t get easier for Miami in New England’s home opener.

“Without Brady and Gronkowski, the Pats are about 0.5 to 1 point better,” Simbal said. “Add in a field goal for home field to get to the opening number.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Pittsburgh is in one of two games today that wrap up Week 1, traveling to D.C to take on the Washington Redskins. Cincinnati, meanwhile, snuck out of MetLife Stadium with a 23-22 victory over the New York Jets on Sunday, with a last-minute field goal providing a win and cover for the 1-point underdog.

“These teams are about even, so the Steelers get the nod for the home-field advantage,” Simbal said of the opener at CG books in Las Vegas, including The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3)

But for bad late clock management, the Cowboys could very well have started out 1-0 under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, subbing for the injured Tony Romo. Alas, Dallas lost to the New York Giants 20-19 as a 1-point home fave.

Now, the Pokes hit the road for another NFC East Division matchup. Washington hasn’t yet taken the field in Week 1, hosting Pittsburgh in one of the two Monday night matchups.

“The Cowboys looked good with Prescott,” Simbal said. “On a neutral field, these teams are even, so the Redskins get a field goal for home-field advantage.”

AFC East heats up Thursday


New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

Lines: New York (-1); Total set at 40.5

These two AFC East rivals both enter Week 2 after a loss to an AFC North opponent.

Buffalo was in Baltimore and took a 13-7 defeat, while the Jets couldn't hold onto a late lead and gave up a game-winning FG to Cincinnati in the final minute to lose 23-22.

Those defeats put these two organizations in the familiar position of looking up at the New England Patriots in the standings after they beat Arizona on SNF, and now both of these teams know how important a win on Thursday night will be.

Right off the bat, bettors will notice that this line has already seen significant movement since it opened on Sunday evening. The number then was set at Buffalo (-3) and the Bills anaemic showing against the Ravens clearly left an impact on the betting public. Buffalo did play alright on defense, but the offense was futile.

The Bills had just 160 yards of total offense in the game and converted just 11 first downs (one by penalty and two on 4th down) the entire game. They were constantly in 3rd-and-long situations that continually put them behind the sticks, and many bettors believe it's too hard to see a drastic change in that regard on a short week.

After all, the Jets did look fairly solid for the most part, but they let Bengals WR AJ Green go off for 180 receiving yards and did give up that final drive that led to a FG. There is no denying that New York looked like the much better team of these two in Week 1, but I would caution against making snap judgements on NFL teams after one week of play. What's that old saying? Nobody is ever as good as they appear after a solid performance, and nobody is ever as bad as they appear after a clunker.

So while the Jets have gotten all the early money in this spot, I wouldn't be surprised to see some buyback on this line soon. Even if that opening number of -3 for Buffalo was solely based on a typical home field advantage (which it wasn't), the Bills have still won five in a row against the Jets (5-0 ATS too), and beat them by identical 22-17 scores in both meetings a year ago.

In fact, Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is just 2-8 SU in 10 career games against a Rex Ryan-led defense and that's one of those trends that makes you wonder if Rex is completely in Fitzpatrick's head at this point.

Home teams have typically been the better bet on TNF since these games became a regular part of the NFL schedule in 2006, and you likely aren't going to see a better number on the Bills then the one that's currently out there. The Jets may have looked like the better team after Week 1, but I'm betting they'll have the worse record after Week 2.

Take the Buffalo Bills +1 and/or on the money line.

NFL line watch: Can the Raiders continue to live up to their lofty expectations?


Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.


Game to bet on now

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3)

Seems like every game between AFC North teams (except for the Browns) has a field goal line, and this one is no different. Both teams are coming off impressive victories – the Bengals sorting things out after a slow start and beating the Jets in New York; and the Steelers breaking open a moderately tight game and winning in Washington. Cincinnati is the defending division champions (12-4), but the smart money seems to be on the Steelers to get the title back this season. In fact, many bettors like the Steelers as the second-best team in the conference, behind New England. This line opened at 3, has stayed at 3 and is unlikely to move.

Game to wait on

Atlanta at Oakland (-4.5)

This one has already been bet down from 5.5, and with heavy money (2/3 of wagering) on the Raiders, there is a chance it could move again. The Raiders opened a lot of eyes by going for two and beating the Saints in New Orleans this past Sunday, but equally as impressive was Oakland QB Derek Carr, who threw for 319 yards and no interceptions – with completions to nine different receivers. The Raiders also outrushed the Saints 2-1 (167-88) and served notice that, what is expected to be, their final year in the Bay Area before a move to Las Vegas will be successful. Four of Atlanta’s next five games are on the road, with two of the games on the West Coast and another to Denver in as brutal a stretch as any team has this season.

Total to watch

Tampa Bay at Arizona (50)

The Cardinals will no doubt be spending a lot of time in practice this week to locate their long passing game - which the Patriots neutralized on Sunday night. Carson Palmer completed only three passes for more than 20 yards in the game, New England forcing them to settle for underneath tosses. Zona needs to connect on a few early vs. the Bucs to get the feeling back. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is still feeling its oats after putting up 31 points at Atlanta, and feels it has a future MVP in QB Jameis Winston (28 for 33 and four TDs) vs. the Falcons. 50 might be a low number for these two teams in what has all the makings of a shootout.

NFL Week 2 Essentials


Entering the Week 1 Monday night dud of a doubleheader, 11 of the NFL’s first 14 games were decided by one score, which included six games settled by two points or less. It’s unlikely that this second week will be as riveting, but it doesn’t hurt to hope. Here’s the card and what you need to identify before wagering:

Thursday, Sept. 15

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: There’s truly no such thing as a Week 2 must-win, but this one will make you think twice about how definitive that statement is. The Jets suffered a gut-wrenching home loss to Cincinnati where they played well, but multiple core guys made mistakes, so a setback here could linger. Given how tough the rest of the early schedule is, a win could make a difference in salvaging the season. The Bills scored a week-low 7 points and have top receiver Sammy Watkins attempting to gut it out through discomfort in his surgically repaired left foot, so the clouds are already circling entering this key home game. Tyrod Taylor’s mobility should come in handy against a New York d-line that gets after quarterbacks as well as anyone in the league. He’ll be operating behind a new starting left tackle since Cordy Glenn has been ruled out due to an ankle injury.

Sunday, Sept. 18

Tennessee at Detroit: The Titans imploded due to Game 1 turnovers, but they’ll prepare for their first road game hoping to build on a solid first half against Minnesota that featured improved play on both sides of the ball. Matt Prater’s game-winning field goal in Indy helped preserve good vibes after the Lions nearly blew a 21-3 lead, so the Lions will look to start 2-0 despite Calvin Johnson’s early retirement. Matthew Stafford’s confident play had to be reassuring, but not every secondary is going to be as vulnerable as the Colts. It also helped that he had Theo Riddick taking pressure off him out of the backfield. The Notre Dame product will have to get through concussion protocol here.

Kansas City at Houston: Star RB Jamaal Charles didn’t play and the Chargers led 24-3 at Arrowhead, but the largest comeback in franchise history saved the day for a Chiefs squad that believes Alex Smith has truly turned the corner. Charles and standout pass rusher Justin Houston will be absent again, so depth will be tested in a hostile environment as Kansas City looks to win its sixth road game in seven tries including last year’s playoff run. Don’t forget that the Chiefs ended the Texans’ season in Houston 30-0 in last year’s AFC Wild Card round, so this one will be personal for J.J. Watt and the defense, not to mention a good test of where they are with Brock Osweiler at the controls. Notre Dame product Will Fuller looks like a game-breaker of a receiver, which will only make DeAndre Hopkins even more effective.

Miami at New England: The disappointed Dolphins had to fly back cross-country knowing they let one get away in Seattle, so their resiliency will be tested immediately. Considering rookie coach Adam Gase not only has to pick up his team, but also prepare for a Bill Belichick-led group, and injury-riddled Miami faces a huge challenge here. The Patriots may not get Rob Gronkowski back from his hamstring injury and will be riding Jimmy Garoppolo for the second of four games, but their supporting cast now believes they can go 4-0 without Tom Brady after passing their toughest test in Arizona. Those guys aren’t likely to come out flat at home, but we’ll see how they handle a stingy-looking Dolphins defense with so many backup offensive linemen likely back in play. They obviously held up well in Glendale.

Baltimore at Cleveland: The seemingly cursed Robert Griffin III had fans excited in rejuvenated Cleveland, but didn’t even make it to his home debut after suffering a shoulder injury that will keep him out at least eight weeks. Josh McCown will get the call against a Ravens defense that generated huge stops to deliver a season-opening win over Buffalo. Linebackers Elvis Dumervil, CJ Mosley and Za’Darius Smith all missed practice on Wednesday, so there’s concern there. Joe Flacco looked a bit rusty after his lengthy layoff, but has more weapons to work with and is rightfully favored to get his team off to a 2-0 start. The Ravens have won six of eight in this series, but split last year, losing in OT at home last October.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Bengals couldn’t keep the Jets off Andy Dalton, so they’ll have to shore up some holes to keep him upright against a fast, aggressive Steelers defense. These teams are meeting for the first time since January’s memorable Wild Card game that Pittsburgh won after penalties foiled Cincinnati, so it’s certain to be spicy. Vontaze Burfict, whose violent hit in that game set up the winning field goal, is serving the second of a three-game suspension for that transgression, but the officiating will still be on alert to try and prevent a repeat. As a result, this could become a flag-fest. The Steelers rode their running game to create opportunities and control possession in their Monday night win in D.C., so you can likely expect more of the same here against a defense that gave up the fourth-most rushing yards in Week 1 when the Jets churned out 152.

Dallas at Washington: Rookie Dak Prescott proved the preseason was no fluke despite a one-point loss to the Giants. He belongs. Ezekiel Elliott proved he’s got a shot at being a force running behind the Cowboys stout offensive lineup. Despite those bright spots, Dallas again proved unable to win without Tony Romo (now 10-24, 1-12 last 13), which is obviously a problem as it hits the road for the first time. The ‘Skins will be favored despite facing a short week, which makes this a dicey game to wager when you add in the divisional rivalry angle. Washington saw Cousins take far too many checkdowns in the loss to the Steelers and may be more aggressive getting the ball downfield here as it looks to beat the Cowboys for the second straight time, something it hasn't accomplished since 2012.

New Orleans at N.Y. Giants: The same ol’ Saints showed up at the Superdome in losing to the Raiders, lighting up the scoreboard behind Drew Brees’ precision but coming up empty because the defense couldn’t get a stop. Making matters worse, top corner Delvin Breaux may have broken his fibula and is out indefinitely. New Orleans figures to be in every game so long as the line can keep Brees upright, so it’s going to be up to a New York defense that looked improved to string together some consistency. Eli Manning shook off a rough preseason and showed off the Giants impressive array of weapons. Adding rookie Sterling Shepard and seeing Victor Cruz return to health means Odell Beckham Jr. won’t command all the attention. And if he does, Manning can clean up. For the first time since the 2003 home opener, someone other than Tom Coughlin will coach the Giants in East Rutherford. Ben McAdoo will look to join each of his last four predecessors, Coughlin, Jim Fassel, Dan Reeves and Ray Handley, in winning their home debut. The last guy to fail? Bill Parcells.

San Francisco at Carolina: There will be a lot of eyes on this one given the presence of Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton. One is making his noise off the field, while the reigning MVP is generating discussion about why he seems to be getting protected less than other quarterbacks. As expected, the books have the Panthers as the heaviest favorite of this young season, which is no surprise given their excellence at home and the 49ers being forced to fly cross-country while facing a short week after blanking L.A. on Monday night. Despite their success, this is only the fourth time since 2013 that Carolina is a double-digit home favorite. The Panthers are 3-0 in those games, but are just 1-1-1 ATS.

Tampa Bay at Arizona: An improved Jameis Winston threw for four scores and looked incredibly impressive at Atlanta, finishing as Week 1’s top rated quarterback. Carson Palmer looked off his game against New England, firing the ball away a split-second early and missing open receivers in suffering through an upset loss. Can the Bucs pull off a second straight road upset and deal the Cardinals a second consecutive home defeat? Arizona is just 1-3 in its last four dates in Glendale, with the lone win being its OT triumph over Green Bay in last year’s playoffs.

Seattle at Los Angeles: Quarterback Russell Wilson got his ankle trampled by Miami’s Ndamakong Suh and stuck it out to help the Seahawks avoid an upset with a great final drive, but no one should expect him to be 100 percent here. The Rams will have their home debut, but it remains to be seen whether the L.A. Coliseum can offer them any real advantage and the early attitude seemed to be a cross between dubious and indifferent even before Monday night’s embarrassment. To have any shot at an upset, Case Keenum either has to play over his head or Sean Mannion has to come off the bench with the game of his life. Don’t expect to see rookie Jared Goff.

Indianapolis at Denver: The returning Andrew Luck shook off a slow start and looked like his old self in nearly helping the Colts avoid a home upset against Detroit, but concerns over Indy’s offensive line and the defense are merited and not going anywhere. The Broncos could feast as a result, especially if Trevor Siemian continues to prove that he’ll be able to handle being at the controls for the entirety of this repeat bid. Denver has won five consecutive home games and will have Demariyus Thomas available after concern over a hip injury that isn’t considered serious.

Atlanta at Oakland: Head coach Jack Del Rio saw his gamble on a two-point conversion in New Orleans pay off, so his Raiders are riding a high into their home opener. A win would deliver the franchise’s first 2-0 start since 2002, which not coincidentally doubles as the last time Oakland reached the playoffs. Matt Ryan brings the Falcons cross-country after having just been on the losing end of one shootout against Tampa Bay and will likely be faced with another here against Derek Carr. His offensive line, hoping to be improved from last year, faces a stiff challenge on the road against the Khalil Mack-led group. Top receivers Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, both of whom suffered Week 1 ankle injuries, will be expected to play.

Jacksonville at San Diego: The Jaguars are also facing a long flight in an effort to avoid an 0-2 start, but had to feel encouraged by nearly taking down Green Bay on a day where Aaron Rodgers had it going. They couldn’t find much of a run game without Chris Ivory, who fell ill and had to be admitted to the hospital. It hasn’t been ruled out that they would get him back to split the load with T.J. Yeldon, but that isn’t likely. The Chargers probably suffered the most painful Week 1 setback since they also lost WR Keenan Allen for the season in addition to blowing a 24-3 lead, but they can heal at home here against an opponent that they’re 5-0 against since 2010, outscoring the Jags by an average margin of 33-14. Considering many were expecting the Chargers being in San Diego would be a thing of the past this time last year, it will be interesting to see how packed Qualcomm Stadium gets.

Green Bay at Minnesota: The Packers flourished after welcoming back Jordy Nelson, found weight loss agrees with Eddie Lacy and saw Rodgers flash his MVP form against Jacksonville. Now, their rejuvenated offense will really get a great test in facing a Vikings defense that single-handedly won their season-opener in Tennessee. Minnesota will need its passing game to be more productive so that teams can’t key in on Adrian Peterson, so this Sunday-nighter should be telling. Will Sam Bradford be deemed prepared enough to start so Shaun Hill can return to the backup role that better suits him? Green Bay believes that’s how its opponent will play it.

Monday, Sept. 19

Philadelphia at Chicago: Rookie Carson Wentz was among Week 1’s stars and certainly the most pleasant surprise, since few saw an impressive performance in his future after such a limited preseason. After showing great touch on his passes and poise and feel beyond his age and experience level, the 2016 Draft’s No. 2 pick ventures out on the road for the first time in his Monday night debut. The Bears had a poor second half in Houston to foil a strong start, so they’re hoping for progress in addition to their first home win since last Oct. 4, the only time they won at Soldier Field all last season.

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2


Each week, Monty Andrew breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-4.5, 52.5)

Giants’ elite receivers vs. Saints’ dreadful secondary

This game has the highest Vegas total of the week, and with good reason: when these two teams met at the Mercedes Benz Superdome last season, they combined for 101 points. Drew Brees and Eli Manning combined to throw an absurd 13 touchdown passes - and while it would be unreasonable to expect a carbon copy this weekend, don’t be surprised if the two gunslingers come close to combining for double-digit passing scores yet again.

The focus in this one will be on the Saints’ unproven secondary, which is expected to include a pair of undrafted free-agent cornerbacks in Ken Crawley and De’Vante Harris. None of New Orleans’ three CBs had played an NFL snap prior to last weekend’s 35-34 loss to visiting Oakland; Crawley, who replaced Delvin Breaux after the veteran suffered a broken leg, posted the lowest ProFootballFocus score of any defensive back in Week 1 after getting roasted for six catches and a score on seven targets.

This game should see a boatload of points, given the potency of both offenses and that New Orleans will likely find themselves in catch-up mode for the entire game. Look for Eli Manning to punish the Saints' secondary, with all of his receiving options healthy and set to contribute. Odell Beckham posted an 8-150-3 line in their previous meeting, and that was with Breaux on the field. It’s going to be ugly for fans of defense - and heaven on earth for fans who love scoring.

Daily fantasy watch: Odell Beckham Jr.


San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-13.5, 45.5)

Panthers’ clock control vs. 49ers’ possession struggles

There’s a lot to like about Carolina this week, even though the Panthers are giving away nearly two touchdowns to visiting San Franciso. The 49ers are facing a short week in which they’ll cross the country to play a 10 am PT game against a defending Super Bowl finalist playing on nine days’ rest. And if that isn’t enough to convince you, consider that the two teams couldn’t be further apart when it comes to ball control.

The Panthers are coming off a sensational season buoyed at least in part by terrific possession metrics. Carolina led the league in time of possession in 2015 at 32:12 per game - one second better than the runner-up and division rival Atlanta Falcons. By comparison, San Francisco ranked 31st out of 32 teams at 26:23. “But Monty!” you say. “They run a Chip Kelly offense now!” That’s true - and the Kelly-led Eagles were the only team to have the ball less (25:51). Kelly finished last in TOP in each of his three seasons in Philadelphia.

Look for the Panthers to use a stout ground game and a dynamic-enough passing approach to keep the offense on the field and wear down the 49ers defense. And despite losing Josh Norman in the offseason, the Carolina defense should be plenty good enough to choke San Francisco’s meager offense into submission. It’s difficult to score points if you don’t have the ball - and the 49ers should find that out in a big way this weekend against a team that controlled the clock like no other last season.

Daily fantasy watch: Carolina D/ST


Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-6, 45)

Broncos’ impressive offense vs. Colts’ dreadful D

Much has been made about how this year’s incarnation of the Broncos can’t hope to compete for the Super Bowl title with an unproven QB at the helm. And while it remains to be seen whether Trevor Siemian can lead Denver back to the title game, fans and bettors alike have to love what they saw out of the Broncos in a Week 1 win over Carolina. And the best part is, things should get a whole lot better in Week 2 against an Indianapolis defense that looked putrid in its opener.

Let’s start with the Denver base three-wide offense, which featured seven players that posted PFF grades above 75 in Week 1. Center Matt Paradis (89.6) was particularly effective, creating plenty of room for running back C.J. Anderson to roam. Contrast that to what we saw from Indianapolis against visiting Detroit - eight members of the Colts’ base defense posted PFF ratings below 50, which is difficult for a professional football team to do in any given week.

The Broncos should easily carve up the Indianapolis defense on all levels. Siemian is in for a big game here, as are Demaryius Thomas - if he plays - and Emmanuel Sanders. The star of this one, however, should be Anderson, whose offensive line has a major advantage over the Colts’ offensive unit - particularly on the right side, where he’ll encounter three players who graded lower than 41.

Daily fantasy watch: C.J. Anderson


Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 49.5)

Raiders’ undisciplined play vs. Falcons’ measured approach

“Moxie” is an under-utilized word these days, but it’s hard to find a better term to describe Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio’s decision to go for two with his Raiders trailing by a single point late in New Orleans. Yet, while the decision proved to be the right one, it masked what was an otherwise mediocre performance from a Raiders team that had better figure out how to be more disciplined. Hope for a turnaround begins at home in Week 2 against a relatively measured Falcons team.

Oakland was one of the most undisciplined units in football last season, ranking third in the league in accepted penalties (138) and sixth in accepted yards (1,102). That pattern continued with emphasis in the Raiders’ Week 1 triumph over the Saints, as they incurred 14 penalties for a whopping 141 yards - including five offensive holding calls on five different players. D.J. Hayden was the worst offender on the defense, picking up two pass interference penalties and a holding call.

The Raiders might get away with it against weaker defensive teams like New Orleans, but a continued rash of penalties could torpedo what is set up to be a solid season. The Falcons were the fifth-least penalized team in the league in 2015 (100), and that disparity could result in major field position shifts Sunday afternoon. Oakland has a shot at a playoff berth this season, but if it can’t keep the flags in the referees’ pockets, it could be in for a rude awakening.

Daily fantasy watch: Julio Jones

Vegas Money Moves - Week 2
By Micah Roberts

Week 1 action gave bettors a lot to think about and the consensus from most heading into Week 2 is that they hate the Rams and Browns. CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal kindly offered some of his time Friday afternoon to review games they have the biggest exposure on so far.

So let's take a look at what's been happening during the week.

CG Tech books opened Detroit as 5.5-point home favorites over Tennessee on Sunday night and were bet to -6 on Thursday. The only -5.5 remaining in the city is at Station Casinos. CG books opened the Lions -5 in April when they posted numbers on every game for the first 16 weeks. The total rose from an opener of 46.5 to 47 on Wednesday.

The Chiefs ended the Texans 2015 season with a 30-0 playoff win at NRG Stadium and they also beat them there, 27-20, in Week 1. Kansas City was favored in both games. But when Houston signed Brock Osweiler, it immediately upgraded the Chiefs rating and CG books early line in April had this Week 2 match-up as a pick 'em. On Sunday night they opened Houston as a 1.5-point home favorite.

"Respected money came in on the Texans laying -1.5, -2 and -2.5 and were watching that one carefully," said Simbal, who is still sitting at -2.5 not wanting to move to -3. The total has stayed put at 43.5 the entire week. The come into this game having covered eight of their last 10 regular season games and the two-team, side-to-total parlay tied to the UNDER has cashed six times during the run.

Prior to the Patriots big win at Arizona with Jimmy Garappolo looking very comfortable, the Patriots were opened as 4-point home favorites against Miami. When the number was re-posted on Monday, CG books hung -6.5. That's quite an endorsement for Garoppolo. When the early lines were posted in April with Tom Brady in the mix, the Patriots were -9. The total has dropped from 42.5 to 42. The home team has covered the last eight meetings and Miami has gone 1-8 ATS in its last nine against AFC East opponents. The lone cover was a critical Week 17 game for the Pats at Miami where the Dolphins won 20-10 as 10-point underdogs.

Baltimore opened Sunday night as 4-point favorites at Cleveland and as news starting filtering in about how severe Robert Griffin's injury was, the line quickly went to -5. With Griffin confirmed out and Josh McCown in, it went to -5.5 on Monday all the way up to -7 until settling back at -6.5 where it hasn't moved since. Baltimore was originally -3 in April. The total dropped from 43.5 to 42.5 on Wednesday. Cleveland has covered only two of its past 11 games, but Baltimore has gone 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 against losing teams.

The best bet of the week is that tempers will flare at Pittsburgh when the Bengals visit Sunday. They met three times last season with the Steelers winning and covering the last two -- both at Cincinnati, but the Bengals won the November match-up 16-10 at Pittsburgh. None of those spreads were higher than -2. The Steelers opened as 3.5-point home favorites on Sunday and there have been a few Bengals backers moving the number to +3.5 (-120). "We took a limit bet on the Bengals at +3.5 and we also took one on OVER 48," said Simbal, who is now at 49. "We don't want to go to -3, but no one is taking the -3.5 (EV)." Cincinnati is on a run of covering its last nine road games.

With Tony Romo expected to play, Dallas at Washington was a pick 'em game. With Dak Prescott running the Cowboys show, Washington opened -3 (-120) and some Dallas money dropped it to -3 (-105). "This is the Square versus Sharp game of the week," said Simbal. We took a limit wager on Washington -3, but have taken tons of public action on the Cowboys. It's one of our biggest parlay risks of the week so far." The total opened at 46.5 and got as low as 45.5, but was moved up to 46 on Thursday. The road team has covered the last five meetings.

The four-team parlay that would hurt Simbal's nine sports books across the city the most is Dallas, New England, Baltimore and Seattle. "They're all over any team playing the Browns and Rams," he said.

The Giants opened as 6-point home favorites against the Saints and the number has steadily dropped down the ladder to -4.5 with Saints action -- it doesn't take much action to slide through dead numbers of 5 and 5.5. "Our biggest bets this week have come on the Saints at +6, +5.5, and +5," Simbal said. The Giants -4.5 is the same number CG opened with in April. The total has gone from 51.5 to 52.5. Six Las Vegas sports books have the total at a high of 53.5. The last four meetings have gone OVER, as in waaaay OVER with the winning team almost taking care of the number themselves. The Saints won 52-49 at home last season.

Carolina was installed as a 14-point home favorite against San Francisco on Sunday night. After Chip Kelly's 49ers beat the Rams 28-0 on Monday night, CG books respected the Niners efforts and re-opened the game -13.5. The total moved from 44.5 to 45 on Tuesday.

The opening number in April had Arizona as 9-point home favorites against Tampa Bay. Before Sunday's home loss against the Patriots, Arizona was posted at -7.5. Even before the game started, bettors drove Arizona down to -6.5. When re-posting Monday morning they started at -6.5 and Arizona money has driven it back up to -7. The total moved from 50 to 50.5 on Friday.

With the uncertainty of Russell Wilson's status (ankle), most sports books didn't post a number on Seattle at Los Angeles, but CG stuck their necks out there. "We actually posted Seattle -3 before the Monday night game -- boy were we off on that one," chuckled Simbal. After the Rams MNF burial, CG posted Seattle -3.5 Tuesday and quickly raised it all the way to -6. On Friday, they went to -6.5. The total has dropped from 39.5 to 38.5. The Rams have covered six of the last eight in the series, including winning outright in both games last season.

Denver opened as 4.5-point home favorites over Indianapolis Sunday night and within 30 minutes it was up to -5.5. Monday afternoon CG moved to -6 and Thursday they went to -6.5. The total has been bet up from 45 to 46.5. The Colts have covered the past eight meetings, the last four engineered by Andrew Luck.

Oakland opened as a 6-point home favorite over Atlanta and it took only 20 minutes before Falcons money said hello and dropped the number to -5.5. On Monday bettors took some at +5.5 and on Thursday they took some +5 dropping it down to 4.5 where it sits now. The total has been bet up from 48 to 49.

San Diego opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Jacksonville and within 10 minutes, it was bet up to -3 and soon after CG attached money to the side and they currently sit -3 (-120) The total has dropped from 48 down to 47.5.

The Packers opened at pick 'em in April for this road contest at Minnesota's new stadium when Teddy Bridgewater was expected to play. When they re-opened the game on Sunday night the Packers were -2.5 and Tuesday it ran up the money ladder a couple times until hitting -3 (EV) where Vikings buy-back came and they're back at -2.5-flat. Simbal said this has been a very evenly bet game so far. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43. Sam Bradford is expected to make his Vikings debut.

The Bears opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Eagles in April and despite recent changes with Philly's QB situation, the Bears were opened Sunday night at basically the same number at -2.5 (-120). Within 20 minutes Bears money pushed it -3-flat and on Wednesday it moved to -3 (-120). The total of 42.5 hasn't moved all week through Friday.