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Post by Gooba on Sept 15, 2016 5:11:56 GMT -5
Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Jets at Bills
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 40)
The Buffalo Bills' offense looked anemic in a season-opening loss and is in need of a jolt as the club hosts coach Rex Ryan's former team in the AFC East-rival New York Jets on Thursday night. Buffalo recorded just 11 first downs, 48 plays behind center and 160 yards of total offense in a 13-7 setback to Baltimore on Sunday.
"Tape doesn't lie,” Ryan told the New York Post on Monday. "We really struggled and we clearly have to get better in a hurry ... and, oh by the way, we're playing against even a better defense (in the Jets)." While New York's aggressive front recorded seven sacks in its 23-22 season-opening loss to Cincinnati, veteran cornerback Darrelle Revis granted A.J. Green a cushy stay on Revis Island and could receive the call to shadow Sammy Watkins. The third-year wideout, who insisted to ESPN that he'll "definitely play" on Thursday despite nursing a sore left foot, reeled in 11 receptions for 136 yards as the Bills posted a 22-17 victory over the Jets in January for their fifth straight win in the series. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three fourth-quarter interceptions versus his former team as New York was derailed in its bid to clinch its first playoff berth since 2010.
TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.
LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened this game favored by a field goal at home, but since then bettors and injury concerns has caused the line to jump the fence to Jets -1.
As for the total, it has come down a fair amount since opening at 42.5 with the current total sitting at 40.
POWER RANKINGS: Jets (-1) - Bills (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Bills +0.5
INJURY REPORT:
Jets - WR Q. Enuwa (probable Thursday, ribs), LB B. Carter (questionable Thursday, shoulder), S C. Pryor (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), DE M. Wilkerson (questionable Thursday, toe), TE K. Davis (questionable Thursday, ribs), LB D. Harris (questionable Thursday, shoulder), CB D. Roberts (doubtful Thursday, foot), DL J. Jenkins (doubtful Thursday, calf).
Bills - WR S. Watkins (questionable Thursday, foot), RB J. Williams (questionable Thursday, ribs), CB K. Seymour (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR W. Powell (questinable Thursday, undisclosed), Qb C. Jones (questionable Sunday, shoulder), TE J. Dray (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT J. Worthy (questionable Thursday, knee), TE C. Clay (questionable Thursday, knee), T C. Glenn (out Thursday, ankle), S C. Anderson (out Thursday, foot).
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Orchard Park. The forecast calls for clear skies with temperatures in the low 60's during the game. There could be a six to seven mil per hour wind gusting from east to west, towards the northwestern endzzone.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Monday morning we were sitting at Bills -2.5, but were taking all Jets action at that number (over 90 percent) forcing us to go move all the way to the Jets -1, where we were still seeing over 80 percent of the action on the Jets. We are now Jets -1.5 with just under 85 percent of the action on the Jets We have also moved the total down from 42.5 to 40.5 where we are seeing just under 75 percent on the Over." - Michael Stewart.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "For the second consecutive season the Bills and Jets meet on a Thursday night. Both teams are coming off shaky week one performances. Buffalo's simplistic road game plan at Baltimore back-fired as penalties ruined their chances. Meanwhile, the Jets could not avoid big mistakes on their home field against the powerful Bengals."
"With a short week in a division game Vegas has this setup with a common resulting number of one-point in the Jets favor (four games decided by a point week one)." - Zack Cimini.
ABOUT THE JETS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U): New York's offense received mixed reviews in the opener as versatile veteran Matt Forte (96 rushing, 59 receiving) amassed 155 yards from scrimmage in his debut, but former Chicago Bears teammate Brandon Marshall was limited to just three catches and committed a costly drop in the fourth quarter. The 32-year-old Marshall downplayed any residual issues with an ailing hip and looks to get back on track versus Buffalo, against which he has reeled in a touchdown pass in each of his last four meetings. Leonard Williams recorded 2 1/2 sacks in the opener, fellow defensive tackle Steve McLendon added two and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson had 1 1/2 for the Jets, who will see Sheldon Richardson make his 2016 debut after serving a one-game suspension for violating the personal-conduct policy.
ABOUT THE BILLS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Ryan dismissed the possibility of shutting down Watkins after the New York Daily News reported that the move could be done as a precaution following the wideout's admission that his surgically repaired foot was sore. Watkins had four catches for a team-high 43 yards against the Ravens, but Tyrod Taylor only connected on 15 of 22 tosses for 111 yards in the game. LeSean McCoy, who recorded his 60th career touchdown in the opener, gashed the Jets for 112 yards rushing and five catches for 47 yards receiving in Buffalo's 22-17 win on Nov. 12.
TRENDS:
* Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in Buffalo.
* Bills finished last season 4-0 ATS in their final four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in the Bills' last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five games in Buffalo.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing the shot road fave in this spot, with 60 percent of wagers backing the Jets. As for the total, 56 percent of wagers are on the Under.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 15, 2016 5:12:28 GMT -5
Preview: Jets (0-1) at Bills (0-1)
Date: September 15, 2016 8:25 PM EDT
There was plenty of blame to go around for season-opening losses by the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, but with three days between games and an AFC East rival ahead Thursday night in Week 2, each team turned the page quickly.
Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman stood up and faced the music Monday afternoon, a day after his offense turned in one of the team's worst performances in recent memory.
Buffalo's total offense output of 160 yards was its worst in 10 years, and its lowest in a season opener since 1979. Roman accepted blame for a game plan that never got into sync.
"I will definitely take the blame myself," Roman said. "I think I can do a better job putting us in positions to be successful."
What was so odd about what took place in Buffalo's 13-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens is that Roman never allowed the Bills to get into any rhythm.
Buffalo did take the last meeting in the series - and the past five - to bump the Jets out of the playoffs in the final week of the 2015 season.
"We know each other pretty well," Jets coach Todd Bowles said. "They're still tough. Rex is smart. He understands the game very well."
The most glaring issue Week 1 for the Bills was the lack of deep throws dialed up for Tyrod Taylor, something in which the quarterback excelled last season in his first year as the starter. His longest pass was a 33-yarder on a broken play to tight end Charles Clay, and the only other pass that topped 10 yards was a 19-yarder to Sammy Watkins.
"We weren't able to get into a rhythm and take those shots when we wanted to," Roman said. "We got a little bit disjointed. We have to stay on the field. When we do that, we're pretty darn good."
There were five instances in which the Bills faced second-and-8 or longer where Roman called for a run, and none of those plays produced a first down. Only once did Buffalo recover and get points, and that was on its lone touchdown drive in the second quarter.
The Jets sacked Andy Dalton seven times but the Cincinnati Bengals rattled away a 23-22 win in Week 1.
The job that stares Roman in the face is trying to get the offense on track against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL in Thursday night's home opener against the Jets (8:25 p.m. ET). Baltimore was stout in the front seven and did a great job overpowering the Bills' offensive line, and things will likely get tougher in this game against the likes of Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams. Wilkerson, dealing with ankle and toe issues, might not practice leading up to the game.
"They have so many good players up front," center Eric Wood said. "All of us have to show up each play because any one of them can really embarrass you. Another tough test, and we've got to play better this week."
And the Bills may have to do so without left tackle Cordy Glenn, who is expected to miss the game with an ankle injury, and leading receiver Sammy Watkins (foot). Glenn played half the game last week before exiting. Cyrus Kouandjio took over and, like the rest of the line, struggled.
To a man, the linemen are thrilled to be playing on Thursday night because it allowed them to quickly wash away that lousy performance in Baltimore. Wood said they were already working on the game plan on the flight back from Baltimore because of the time crunch, and he said it had a cleansing effect.
"I think it was a blessing in disguise to get that stinker out of the way and move on and have a great opponent like the Jets coming up," Bills guard Richie Incognito said. "It was great to turn the page fast and get on to the Jets."
"We are a very prideful group and we know what we're capable of and we didn't play up to our potential. When you have a poor showing like that early in the season it leaves a poor taste in your mouth. So we're coming out extra motivated. We're fired up."
Thursday's contest is the 111th regular-season meeting between the teams. Buffalo leads the series 59-51.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 15, 2016 5:13:01 GMT -5
AFC East heats up Thursday
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Lines: New York (-1); Total set at 40.5
These two AFC East rivals both enter Week 2 after a loss to an AFC North opponent.
Buffalo was in Baltimore and took a 13-7 defeat, while the Jets couldn't hold onto a late lead and gave up a game-winning FG to Cincinnati in the final minute to lose 23-22.
Those defeats put these two organizations in the familiar position of looking up at the New England Patriots in the standings after they beat Arizona on SNF, and now both of these teams know how important a win on Thursday night will be.
Right off the bat, bettors will notice that this line has already seen significant movement since it opened on Sunday evening. The number then was set at Buffalo (-3) and the Bills anaemic showing against the Ravens clearly left an impact on the betting public. Buffalo did play alright on defense, but the offense was futile.
The Bills had just 160 yards of total offense in the game and converted just 11 first downs (one by penalty and two on 4th down) the entire game. They were constantly in 3rd-and-long situations that continually put them behind the sticks, and many bettors believe it's too hard to see a drastic change in that regard on a short week.
After all, the Jets did look fairly solid for the most part, but they let Bengals WR AJ Green go off for 180 receiving yards and did give up that final drive that led to a FG. There is no denying that New York looked like the much better team of these two in Week 1, but I would caution against making snap judgements on NFL teams after one week of play. What's that old saying? Nobody is ever as good as they appear after a solid performance, and nobody is ever as bad as they appear after a clunker.
So while the Jets have gotten all the early money in this spot, I wouldn't be surprised to see some buyback on this line soon. Even if that opening number of -3 for Buffalo was solely based on a typical home field advantage (which it wasn't), the Bills have still won five in a row against the Jets (5-0 ATS too), and beat them by identical 22-17 scores in both meetings a year ago.
In fact, Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is just 2-8 SU in 10 career games against a Rex Ryan-led defense and that's one of those trends that makes you wonder if Rex is completely in Fitzpatrick's head at this point.
Home teams have typically been the better bet on TNF since these games became a regular part of the NFL schedule in 2006, and you likely aren't going to see a better number on the Bills then the one that's currently out there. The Jets may have looked like the better team after Week 1, but I'm betting they'll have the worse record after Week 2.
Take the Buffalo Bills +1 and/or on the money line.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 15, 2016 5:15:46 GMT -5
Thursday, Sept. 15
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: There’s truly no such thing as a Week 2 must-win, but this one will make you think twice about how definitive that statement is. The Jets suffered a gut-wrenching home loss to Cincinnati where they played well, but multiple core guys made mistakes, so a setback here could linger. Given how tough the rest of the early schedule is, a win could make a difference in salvaging the season. The Bills scored a week-low 7 points and have top receiver Sammy Watkins attempting to gut it out through discomfort in his surgically repaired left foot, so the clouds are already circling entering this key home game. Tyrod Taylor’s mobility should come in handy against a New York d-line that gets after quarterbacks as well as anyone in the league. He’ll be operating behind a new starting left tackle since Cordy Glenn has been ruled out due to an ankle injury.
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Post by Gooba on Sept 15, 2016 5:16:22 GMT -5
Tech Trends - Week 2
Thursday, Sept. 15
NY JETS at BUFFALO (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Bills won and covered both meetings by identical 22-17 scores last season. That's now five straight wins and covers in series for Buffalo. Rex 3-1 as home chalk LY. Jets 2-0-1 as dog last season for Bowles.
Tech Edge: Bills and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends
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Post by Gooba on Sept 15, 2016 5:16:47 GMT -5
Week*2 NFL
NJ Jets (0-1) @ Buffalo (0-1)– Buffalo ran only 48 plays for 160 yards in 13-7 loss at Baltimore; they are 15-8 vs spread in last 23 home games; they won last five series games (both 22-17 LY); home side won six of last eight series games. Jets lost last three visits here, by 19-23-5 points. Bills are 6-2 in last eight home openers (7-2 vs spread in last nine); they’re 4-1 as a favorite in HOs. Jets are 14-5 vs spread in last 19 road openers, covering last three in spite of going 1-4 SU in last five. Jets covered seven of last eight as an underdog in AO’s- since 2011, they’re 10-14-3 as road dogs. Gang Green lost last week despite seven sacks, 52 rushing yards. Bills are 13-8 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less; Jets are 5-8-1 in last 14. Last three Buffalo home openers stayed under, as did six of Jets’ last nine road openers.
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