Post by Makers on Sept 17, 2016 5:56:36 GMT -5
"Big game" coaching could be the decisive factor in marquee college football games
Make no mistake about it. The financial action that has pushed the Ohio State-Oklahoma point spread from Oklahoma -2 to a pick ‘em has as much to do with the coaching discrepancy between Bob Stoops and Urban Meyer as it does anything else.
That’s not to say that the strategic advantage Meyer enjoys over “Big Game Bob” is the only reason why the early action has favored Ohio State, but it’s an integral component for why the line has been adjusted. Meyer, along with Alabama’s Nick Saban, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and Houston’s Tom Herman, is one of the top-four coaches in college football.
Stoops, on the other hand, routinely comes up short on the big stage when the lights shine their brightest.
Oklahoma fans hate hearing this sad truth. But that’s the thing. It’s the truth. For proof, let’s take a look at the last five non-conference matchups Stoops has coached against high-level competition:
September 2016: 33-23 LOSS vs. Houston (13-point favorite)
December 2015: 37-17 LOSS vs. Clemson (3.5-point favorite)
December 2014: 40-6 LOSS vs. Clemson (6-point favorite)
January 2014: 45-31 WIN vs. Alabama (17-point underdog)
January 2013: 41-13 LOSS vs. Texas A&M (3-point underdog)
But wait! Stoops beat Nick Saban in that 2014 bowl game! Yes, as a matter of fact, Stoops and his Sooners did win that matchup. But that was a game Alabama could not have cared less about after watching a perfect 11-0 season go up in smoke against Auburn in the team’s regular season finale. That loss cost the Tide a spot in the SEC title game, which ultimately cost Alabama a shot at the National Championship. The Tide had no motivation whatsoever to show up for the Oklahoma bowl game.
On the flip side, here’s a look at Urban Meyer’s last five non-conference matchups against high-level competition:
January 2016: 44-28 WIN vs. Notre Dame (4.5-point favorite)
September 2015: 42-24 WIN vs. Virginia Tech (13.5-point favorite)
January 2015: 42-20 WIN vs. Oregon (6-point underdog)
January 2015: 42-35 WIN vs. Alabama (7.5-point underdog)
January 2014: 40-35 LOSS vs. Clemson (2.5-point favorite)
Oklahoma may have home field advantage Saturday night in Norman (7:30 p.m. ET), but the coaching edge lies unquestionably with Meyer and the Buckeyes.
SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER
Each and every week during the 2016 college football season, this column will speak with a Las Vegas bookmaker in an effort to bring you the most important betting information possible regarding the upcoming weekend’s schedule.
This week we speak with Aaron Kessler, who currently has the pleasure of serving as the Sportsbook Supervisor at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas. You can follow Aaron on twitter @aaronkessler.
Biggest adjustments made to power rankings after Week 2: “We had to give Florida a little more respect, and put Kentucky through the floor. I’m now very cautious on Clemson after two questionable offensive performances. Tennessee is back, confirming my original high ranking. Even though they covered, I’m very low on California and was unimpressed with Boise as well. Michigan remains exceptional.”
Any significant action on your championship futures: “We took a large bet on Florida at 80/1.”
Week 2 sharp action: “The most significant early action we experienced was on Pittsburgh and Missouri.”
Week 2 public action: “There should be some great two-way action on Louisville-Florida State. UCLA figures to be very popular amongst the betting public, as well as both Notre Dame and Alabama.”
Which teams do you currently feel are overvalued in the betting market: “Louisville, Stanford, Auburn and TCU.”
Which teams do you currently feel are undervalued in the betting market: “Michigan, Texas A&M and USC.”
TREND OF THE WEEK
After 17 consecutive years of thrilling matchups that spanned from 1997-2013, the Michigan State-Notre Dame rivalry went on hiatus for two seasons. Lucky for us, that hiatus comes to an end Saturday night in South Bend, Indiana at 7:30 p.m. eastern, as the Fighting Irish look to improve upon their 48-28-1 record against the Spartans in this legendary series.
Unfortunately for Irish fans, this edition of “Trend of the Week” fails to offer even the slightest semblance of optimism. Under current head coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is an abysmal 2-12 ATS as a favorite of six points or more against Big Ten opposition.
As of Thursday evening, Notre Dame was listed as an 8-point favorite over Michigan State for Saturday night’s showdown.
BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK
Kansas State Wildcats (-19.5 to -25.5) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls: No rest for the weary as Florida Atlantic travels to Manhattan, Kansas one week after a road date at Miami. The Owls are 0-7 ATS over their last seven matchups with Big 12 opposition while the Wildcats are a stellar 16-5-1 over their last 22 games when coming off a bye week. Additionally, Kansas State is 9-4 ATS over its last 13 home contests.
LSU Tigers (-10.5 to -14) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Brandon Harris era in Baton Rouge appears to have reached its merciful conclusion, as Purdue transfer Danny Etling stepped in last week against Jacksonville State and promptly tossed a 46-yard touchdown pass. Be advised that Mississippi State is an abysmal 5-13 ATS over its last 18 games against LSU.
Duke Blue Devils (+6 to +2.5) at Northwestern Wildcats: The 2016 campaign has commenced in brutal fashion for the Wildcats thanks to a 22-21 loss against Western Michigan in Week 1 that was immediately followed by a shocking 9-7 defeat at the hands of Illinois State. Northwestern is 1-4 ATS over its last five home games while Duke is 18-7-1 ATS over its last 26 non-conference showdowns.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3 to -6.5) at Bowling Green Falcons: I hope the payday was worth it because that 77-10 beat down Bowling Green suffered at the hands of juggernaut Ohio State in Week 1 certainly carried over into last weekend’s 27-26 nail-biter against North Dakota, a game in which the Falcons were favored by a whopping 16 points. Middle Tennessee is 6-1 ATS over its last seven September dates while Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS over its last six contests after racking up fewer than 100 rushing yards in the previous game.
Marshall Thundering Herd (-14.5 to -17.5) vs. Akron Zips: Marshall kicked-off their 2016 season last weekend with a 62-0 blanking of Morgan State, which was more than enough to cover the 42.5-point spread. Take note that the Thundering Herd are now 8-2 ATS over their last 10 non-conference games and 16-5 ATS over their last 21 home dates overall. Meanwhile, Akron is 3-9 ATS over its last 12 games following an ATS loss and 2-5 ATS over its last seven non-conference showdowns.
HEISMAN TROPHY WATCH
Odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Opening odds listed in parenthesis.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 5/1 (5/1)
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 5/1 (7/1)
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State: 6/1 (12/1)
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: 8/1 (100/1)
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 10/1 (6/1)
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: 15/1 (10/1)
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State: 15/1 (20/1)
DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: 20/1 (30/1)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: 20/1 (80/1)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: 20/1 (30/1)
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia: 25/1 (12/1)
Damien Harris, RB, Alabama: 30/1 (25/1)
Greg Ward, Jr., QB, Houston: 30/1 (50/1)
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA: 30/1 (15/1)
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon: 30/1 (20/1)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 40/1 (10/1)
Kolton Browning, QB, Washington: 40/1 (80/1)
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama: 40/1 (30/1)
Dakota Prukop, QB, Oregon: 40/1 (40/1)
Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State: 50/1 (100/1)
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama: 50/1 (20/1)
Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami: 50/1 (40/1)
Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss: 60/1 (12/1)
Seth Russell, QB, Baylor: 60/1 (12/1)
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: 60/1 (50/1)
Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma: 80/1 (20/1)
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State: 100/1 (50/1)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State: 100/1 (40/1)
Jalen Hurd, RB, Tennessee: 100/1 (40/1)
Josh Dobbs, QB, Tennessee: 100/1 (30/1)
Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina: 100/1 (50/1)
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M: 100/1 (80/1)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC: 100/1 (80/1)
Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M: 100/1 (100/1)
James Connor, RB, Pittsburgh: 100/1 (100/1)
Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson: 100/1 (100/1)
Kenny Hill, QB, TCU: 200/1 (100/1)
Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin: 200/1 (50/1)
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida: 300/1 (100/1)
Taysom Hill, QB, BYU: 300/1 (100/1)
Make no mistake about it. The financial action that has pushed the Ohio State-Oklahoma point spread from Oklahoma -2 to a pick ‘em has as much to do with the coaching discrepancy between Bob Stoops and Urban Meyer as it does anything else.
That’s not to say that the strategic advantage Meyer enjoys over “Big Game Bob” is the only reason why the early action has favored Ohio State, but it’s an integral component for why the line has been adjusted. Meyer, along with Alabama’s Nick Saban, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and Houston’s Tom Herman, is one of the top-four coaches in college football.
Stoops, on the other hand, routinely comes up short on the big stage when the lights shine their brightest.
Oklahoma fans hate hearing this sad truth. But that’s the thing. It’s the truth. For proof, let’s take a look at the last five non-conference matchups Stoops has coached against high-level competition:
September 2016: 33-23 LOSS vs. Houston (13-point favorite)
December 2015: 37-17 LOSS vs. Clemson (3.5-point favorite)
December 2014: 40-6 LOSS vs. Clemson (6-point favorite)
January 2014: 45-31 WIN vs. Alabama (17-point underdog)
January 2013: 41-13 LOSS vs. Texas A&M (3-point underdog)
But wait! Stoops beat Nick Saban in that 2014 bowl game! Yes, as a matter of fact, Stoops and his Sooners did win that matchup. But that was a game Alabama could not have cared less about after watching a perfect 11-0 season go up in smoke against Auburn in the team’s regular season finale. That loss cost the Tide a spot in the SEC title game, which ultimately cost Alabama a shot at the National Championship. The Tide had no motivation whatsoever to show up for the Oklahoma bowl game.
On the flip side, here’s a look at Urban Meyer’s last five non-conference matchups against high-level competition:
January 2016: 44-28 WIN vs. Notre Dame (4.5-point favorite)
September 2015: 42-24 WIN vs. Virginia Tech (13.5-point favorite)
January 2015: 42-20 WIN vs. Oregon (6-point underdog)
January 2015: 42-35 WIN vs. Alabama (7.5-point underdog)
January 2014: 40-35 LOSS vs. Clemson (2.5-point favorite)
Oklahoma may have home field advantage Saturday night in Norman (7:30 p.m. ET), but the coaching edge lies unquestionably with Meyer and the Buckeyes.
SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER
Each and every week during the 2016 college football season, this column will speak with a Las Vegas bookmaker in an effort to bring you the most important betting information possible regarding the upcoming weekend’s schedule.
This week we speak with Aaron Kessler, who currently has the pleasure of serving as the Sportsbook Supervisor at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas. You can follow Aaron on twitter @aaronkessler.
Biggest adjustments made to power rankings after Week 2: “We had to give Florida a little more respect, and put Kentucky through the floor. I’m now very cautious on Clemson after two questionable offensive performances. Tennessee is back, confirming my original high ranking. Even though they covered, I’m very low on California and was unimpressed with Boise as well. Michigan remains exceptional.”
Any significant action on your championship futures: “We took a large bet on Florida at 80/1.”
Week 2 sharp action: “The most significant early action we experienced was on Pittsburgh and Missouri.”
Week 2 public action: “There should be some great two-way action on Louisville-Florida State. UCLA figures to be very popular amongst the betting public, as well as both Notre Dame and Alabama.”
Which teams do you currently feel are overvalued in the betting market: “Louisville, Stanford, Auburn and TCU.”
Which teams do you currently feel are undervalued in the betting market: “Michigan, Texas A&M and USC.”
TREND OF THE WEEK
After 17 consecutive years of thrilling matchups that spanned from 1997-2013, the Michigan State-Notre Dame rivalry went on hiatus for two seasons. Lucky for us, that hiatus comes to an end Saturday night in South Bend, Indiana at 7:30 p.m. eastern, as the Fighting Irish look to improve upon their 48-28-1 record against the Spartans in this legendary series.
Unfortunately for Irish fans, this edition of “Trend of the Week” fails to offer even the slightest semblance of optimism. Under current head coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is an abysmal 2-12 ATS as a favorite of six points or more against Big Ten opposition.
As of Thursday evening, Notre Dame was listed as an 8-point favorite over Michigan State for Saturday night’s showdown.
BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK
Kansas State Wildcats (-19.5 to -25.5) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls: No rest for the weary as Florida Atlantic travels to Manhattan, Kansas one week after a road date at Miami. The Owls are 0-7 ATS over their last seven matchups with Big 12 opposition while the Wildcats are a stellar 16-5-1 over their last 22 games when coming off a bye week. Additionally, Kansas State is 9-4 ATS over its last 13 home contests.
LSU Tigers (-10.5 to -14) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Brandon Harris era in Baton Rouge appears to have reached its merciful conclusion, as Purdue transfer Danny Etling stepped in last week against Jacksonville State and promptly tossed a 46-yard touchdown pass. Be advised that Mississippi State is an abysmal 5-13 ATS over its last 18 games against LSU.
Duke Blue Devils (+6 to +2.5) at Northwestern Wildcats: The 2016 campaign has commenced in brutal fashion for the Wildcats thanks to a 22-21 loss against Western Michigan in Week 1 that was immediately followed by a shocking 9-7 defeat at the hands of Illinois State. Northwestern is 1-4 ATS over its last five home games while Duke is 18-7-1 ATS over its last 26 non-conference showdowns.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3 to -6.5) at Bowling Green Falcons: I hope the payday was worth it because that 77-10 beat down Bowling Green suffered at the hands of juggernaut Ohio State in Week 1 certainly carried over into last weekend’s 27-26 nail-biter against North Dakota, a game in which the Falcons were favored by a whopping 16 points. Middle Tennessee is 6-1 ATS over its last seven September dates while Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS over its last six contests after racking up fewer than 100 rushing yards in the previous game.
Marshall Thundering Herd (-14.5 to -17.5) vs. Akron Zips: Marshall kicked-off their 2016 season last weekend with a 62-0 blanking of Morgan State, which was more than enough to cover the 42.5-point spread. Take note that the Thundering Herd are now 8-2 ATS over their last 10 non-conference games and 16-5 ATS over their last 21 home dates overall. Meanwhile, Akron is 3-9 ATS over its last 12 games following an ATS loss and 2-5 ATS over its last seven non-conference showdowns.
HEISMAN TROPHY WATCH
Odds courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. Opening odds listed in parenthesis.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: 5/1 (5/1)
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: 5/1 (7/1)
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State: 6/1 (12/1)
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville: 8/1 (100/1)
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: 10/1 (6/1)
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: 15/1 (10/1)
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State: 15/1 (20/1)
DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: 20/1 (30/1)
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: 20/1 (80/1)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: 20/1 (30/1)
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia: 25/1 (12/1)
Damien Harris, RB, Alabama: 30/1 (25/1)
Greg Ward, Jr., QB, Houston: 30/1 (50/1)
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA: 30/1 (15/1)
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon: 30/1 (20/1)
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma: 40/1 (10/1)
Kolton Browning, QB, Washington: 40/1 (80/1)
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama: 40/1 (30/1)
Dakota Prukop, QB, Oregon: 40/1 (40/1)
Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State: 50/1 (100/1)
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama: 50/1 (20/1)
Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami: 50/1 (40/1)
Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss: 60/1 (12/1)
Seth Russell, QB, Baylor: 60/1 (12/1)
Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: 60/1 (50/1)
Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma: 80/1 (20/1)
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State: 100/1 (50/1)
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State: 100/1 (40/1)
Jalen Hurd, RB, Tennessee: 100/1 (40/1)
Josh Dobbs, QB, Tennessee: 100/1 (30/1)
Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina: 100/1 (50/1)
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M: 100/1 (80/1)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC: 100/1 (80/1)
Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M: 100/1 (100/1)
James Connor, RB, Pittsburgh: 100/1 (100/1)
Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson: 100/1 (100/1)
Kenny Hill, QB, TCU: 200/1 (100/1)
Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin: 200/1 (50/1)
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida: 300/1 (100/1)
Taysom Hill, QB, BYU: 300/1 (100/1)