SAS Saturday Gameday

Alabama at Ole Miss

The moment Alabama fans have been waiting for has nearly arrived. Amid the greatness of its eight straight seasons with 10 wins or more, which has included four national titles and seven years of 12 wins or better, there has emerged a new nemesis.

This fresh challenger of sorts has bitten the beast in the backside in two consecutive seasons. It goes by the name of Ole Miss and is led by the school’s best coach since the one whose name adorns the stadium, Johnny Vaught, who led the Rebels to a 190-61-12 record from 1947-1970 (and the last eight games of 1973 after his successor was fired).

His name is Hugh Freeze, who took over for Houston Nutt in 2012 after 4-8 and 2-10 campaigns in 2010 and 2011. Freeze was born and raised in Oxford and has led Ole Miss on a steady rise from the moment he set foot on campus.

In Year 1, he led the Rebels to a postseason invite and a subsequent 38-17 win over Pittsburgh at the Compass Bowl. In ’13, they improved to 8-5 and downed Ga. Tech 25-17 at the Music City Bowl. Then in ’14, Freeze’s program really arrived, starting 7-0 and climbing to No. 3 in the national rankings, the highest status for the program at that late stage of the season in nearly 50 years.

Along the way, Ole Miss stunned Alabama 23-17 in comeback fashion at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Freeze’s bunch was a legit contender to participate in the first College Football Playoff, but a late interception while in field-goal range thwarted its last drive in a 10-7 loss at LSU. Two weeks later, the season was lost at home against Auburn when star WR Laquon Treadwell’s late go-ahead TD was reversed by replace officials.

Treadwell had fumbled at the goal line when a hit by an Auburn defender knocked the ball loose and broke Treadwell’s leg. In an instant, hopes of a first SEC West title in the program’s history were dashed and one of the team’s best players had to be carted off the field with a gruesome injury.

The hangover effect resulted in a loss at Arkansas two weeks later. Then after a nice bounce-back win over fourth-ranked Mississippi State. to ruin the arch rival’s shot at a CFP berth, Ole Miss took a beatdown from TCU at The Peach Bowl to finish 9-4.

Once again last year, Ole Miss was in the mix to get to the SEC Championship Game for the first time. Despite losses at Florida and at Memphis, the Rebels were in control of their own destiny thanks to a September win at Alabama by a 43-37 count as 6.5-point underdogs. But when Arkansas came to Oxford, it captured a 53-52 overtime win thanks to a wild first-down conversion on a fourth-and-long play that involved a crazy lateral, in addition to catching a break with a face-mask call to extend the winning drive in OT.

Nevertheless, Ole Miss still finished 10-3, won the Egg Bowl for a second straight season and went to its first Sugar Bowl in decades where it smashed Oklahoma State, 48-20. Freeze was the toast of the town, continuing to recruit at a level never seen before from Ole Miss in the modern era.

And then the NFL Draft happened. On a night that should’ve been a celebration of the program’s accomplishments on Freeze’s watch with three of its players being selected in the first round, instead turned into a debacle of epic proportions live on national television. Without getting into all of the sordid details, let’s simply note that Laremy Tunsil’s social media accounts were hacked, with one of them displaying copy-and-pasted text messages from Tunsil to a member of Freeze’s staff requesting cash to pay for his mother’s bills.

When asked about this during a televised interview after being drafted by the Dolphins, Tunsil answered, “I would have to say yes” to the question of whether or not he was paid while playing for the Rebels. Shortly after that answer, an assistant for the agent (Jimmie Sexton) who represents both Freeze and Tunsil ushered him off the stage and suddenly cut off all questions from the assembled media.

These developments put a major stain on Freeze’s reputation immediately. The program was already under investigation and Freeze’s success on the recruiting trail had already been called into question by many rival schools. Freeze was suddenly under a microscope for all the wrong reasons.

After the dust settled somewhat, he appeared on The Paul Finebaum Show less than two weeks later. Freeze’s mantra was and continues to be that he can’t discuss the specifics of the Tunsil situation because that part of the investigation hasn’t been completed, but he’s insisted that he’s done nothing wrong and that his program will survive this negativity.

That remains to be seen. Whatever the case, Ole Miss (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) had to be thrilled to put the tumultuous offseason behind it and get on the field. That certainly seemed to be the case when it jumped all over Florida State for a commanding 28-6 lead late in the second quarter of the season opener in Orlando.

However, the Seminoles trimmed the deficit to 28-13 with 28 ticks left before halftime on a 16-yard TD pass from Deondre Francois to Travis Rudolph. Then on FSU’s opening drive to start the second half, it pulled to within 12 with a 40-yard field goal. Ole Miss promptly committed a turnover and several plays later FSU cashed in with a one-yard TD run from Freddie Stevenson.

Just two plays later, another Ole Miss turnover gave FSU the ball in great field position with a chance to take the lead. Jimbo Fisher’s team did just that on a short TD run by Kermit Whitfield for a 29-28 advantage less than six minutes into the third quarter. The ‘Noles would extend the lead to 39-28 before the Rebels finally answered with 12:09 remaining.

Chad Kelly’s 20-yard TD pass to Van Jefferson cut the deficit to 39-34, but the two-point conversion attempt failed. Ole Miss was still within one possession after an FSU field goal, but its offense couldn’t counter. A late field goal provided the final points for the ‘Noles in their 45-34 win as five-point favorites. The 79 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57.5-point total.

Kelly completed 21-of-39 passes for 313 yards and four TDs, but he was intercepted three times and also lost a fumble. He didn’t get any help from the running game and spent the entire second half under extreme pressure. Evan Engram hauled in nine receptions for 121 yards and one TD.

In Week 2, the Rebels bounced back with a 38-13 win over Wofford, though they failed to take the cash as 43-point home ‘chalk.’ The 51 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 56.5-point total.

Kelly connected on 20-of-27 throws for 219 yards and three TDs without an interception. Akeem Judd ran for a team-high 64 yards on 11 carries, as the running game showed a pulse with a 5.1 YPC average.

As of late Thursday, most books had Alabama (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) installed as an 11-point favorite with a total of 55 points. The Rebels were available on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330). As for first-half wagers, the Crimson Tide were favored by 6.5 points with a 28-point tally.

Alabama remained undefeated at Jerry World in the season opener by smashing Southern Cal 52-6 as a 13.5-point favorite. The 58 combined points surged ‘over’ the 51.5-point total.

USC drew first blood with a 47-yard field goal on its opening drive, but Nick Saban’s team would rip off 38 unanswered points. True freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts found ArDarius Stewart for a 39-yard scoring strike with 7:46 remaining in the second quarter to put ‘Bama ahead 7-3. The Tide would tack on an Adam Griffith 29-yard field goal with 3:26 left until halftime. Then several plays later, Marlon Humphrey extended Alabama’s advantage to 17-3 at intermission with an 18-yard interception return for a TD.

Things got ugly fast in the third quarter. Hurts found Stewart again for a 71-yard TD pass less than 90 seconds into the third quarter and the blowout was on from there. Hurts would add rushing scores from six and seven yards out. He accounted for four TDs in his collegiate debut, throwing for 118 yards on 6-of-11 passing. Hurts rushed nine times for 32 yards. Damien Harris ran nine times for a team-best 138 yards.

Alabama’s defense was as nasty as usual, limiting the Trojans to 194 yards of total offense. Jeremy Pruitt’s unit held USC to 64 rushing yards on 30 attempts for a pedestrian 2.1 yards-per-carry average.

In Week 2, Alabama had its home opener against Western Ky. It was a vintage sandwich situation with USC in the rearview mirror and Ole Miss on deck. Bettors either won or lost depending on when they place their wager – at least for the side. The Tide opened as a 28.5-point ‘chalk’ versus the Hilltoppers and the number spent most of the week in the 28-29 range. Only within the 80 minutes prior to kick did most books adjust the line to south of 28 and it closed at 27.

Therefore, late ‘Bama backers cashed a winner in the 38-10 win. The 48 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 60-point total. Hurts completed 23-of-36 passes for 287 yards and two TDs without an interception. Calvin Ridley had nine receptions for 129 yards and one TD, while Stewart hauled in five catches for 90 yards and one TD. Eddie Jackson’s 55-yard pick-six gave the Tide a 17-3 lead at halftime.

Despite the victory, Saban wasn’t impressed. He had to be concerned with the play of his offensive line, which was only able to carve holes for 124 rushing yards on 39 carries (3.2 YPC). His team was also penalized 12 times for 84 yards. Those results prompted an “ass-chewing” for offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin.

Since Saban took over in 2007, Alabama owns a 21-14 spread record as a road favorite, going 4-0 in its last four such situations.

Ole Miss has been a home underdog seven times during Freeze’s tenure, producing a 5-2 spread record with three outright wins. The Rebels have been double-digit home ‘dogs three times, going 2-1 ATS with one victory over LSU in ’13 as 10-point puppies.

When these schools met at Bryant-Denny Stadium last year, Kelly completed 18-of-33 passes for 341 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also had a four-yard TD run. Kelly’s third scoring strike to Treadwell gave the Rebels a 43-24 lead with 10:02 remaining. The Tide would mount a desperate rally, only to come up short.

Kickoff in Oxford is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Despite the emergence of the ‘over’ in last year’s meeting, the ‘under’ has still hit at a 6-2 clip in the last eight Alabama-Ole Miss encounters.

-- LSU owns an 8-4-1 spread record in its last 13 games as a home favorite. Mississippi State is 9-11 ATS in 20 games as a road underdog during Dan Mullen’s eight-year tenure. The Tigers will host the Bulldogs on Saturday at Tiger Stadium on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. LSU has won 15 of the last 16 head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals, but Mississippi State won 34-29 as a nine-point underdog its last trip to Baton Rouge. Mullen’s team covered the spread but came out on the wrong end of a 21-19 decision as a four-point home underdog against LSU in Starkville last season.

-- According to Jim McElwain’s comments after Wednesday’s practice, Florida star sophomore WR Antonio Callaway is ‘highly questionable to doubtful’ for Saturday’s home game vs. North Texas. McElwain should and I assume will rest Callaway in order for him to be as close to 100 percent as possible for next week’s trip to Swamp North in Knoxville for a crucial SEC East showdown against Tennessee. The Gators have beaten the Volunteers 11 consecutive times.

-- Texas A&M owns a 3-6 spread record in nine games as a road ‘dog on Kevin Sumlin’s watch. Meanwhile, Auburn has posted an 8-11 spread record as a home ‘chalk’ since Gus Malzahn took over. The Tigers had failed to cover in eight consecutive games as home favorites until taking the cash in last week’s 51-14 win over Arkansas State when they were favored by 20.5 points. As of late Thursday, most spots had Auburn favored by 3.5 points over the Aggies, who have won outright on both trips to Auburn since joining the SEC. ESPN will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

-- Kentucky’s Mark Stoops is feeling the heat after his program lost for the 30th straight time to Florida this past Saturday. The Wildcats fell 45-7 and only dodged the cream-cheese treatment by scoring against back-ups late in the fourth quarter. We should note, however, that Stoops does have a $12 million buyout if UK chooses to part ways with him. His team is a 21.5-point home favorite this week vs. New Mexico State. The Aggies will probably be without star RB Larry Rose, who is still recovering from sports hernia surgery and has yet to play this year. Rose was the Sun Belt Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year last season when he rushed for 1,651 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC.

-- Vanderbilt is a 6.5-point underdog Saturday at Georgia Tech. The Commodores bounced back from its 13-10 season-opening home loss to South Carolina by beating Middle Tennessee 47-24 as three-point home ‘chalk.’ Junior RB Ralph Webb was the catalyst with 211 rushing yards and two TDs on 29 carries. Since Derek Mason took over at Vandy, the ‘Dores have compiled a 6-4 spread record as a road underdog.

-- As of late Thursday, most spots had Georgia listed as a 6.5-point favorite at Missouri. In its last trip to Columbia, UGA dominated the Tigers in a 34-0 blowout as a three-point road favorite. When they collided between the hedges in Athens last year, the Bulldogs won a 9-6 defensive struggle with the Tigers easily covering the number as 15.5-point road underdogs. After dropping its season opener 26-11 at West Virginia, Missouri rolled past Eastern Michigan 61-21 as a 23-point home favorite last week. QB Drew Lock threw for 450 yards and five TDs without an interception. Lock is currently fifth in the nation in passing yards (730).

-- The ‘under’ has cashed at a 12-2 clip in Missouri’s last 14 games

CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes'

Ohio State at Oklahoma September 17, 7:20 EST

Sooners historically dominant in Norman winning seven consecutive games, eighteen of its last twenty-one in front of the home audience have opened 3.0 point home underdogs. Oklahoma's solid home field advantage no need overthinking this one. Take the points knowing Sooners are a profitable 7-1-1 against the betting line as regular season pups if 3.5 or less.


Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi Rebels September 17, 3:30 EST

Defending National Champion Alabama spanking Southern California 52-6 as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorites in the season opener followed it up with a not so impressive 38-10 victory over Western Kentucky as 27.0 point home chalk. Next up for Tide, a trip to Oxford as 9.5 point road favorites to take on Mississippi Rebels. Tide have won 10 of the past 12 meetings (4-8 ATS) but 'Ole Miss' dealt ‘Bama' its only loss last year, 43-37 catching 9 points on the road and also handed Crimson Tide its only regular season loss the prevoius year a 23-17 win in front of the home audience as 5.5 point underdogs. Rebels 5-1 ATS as home underdogs, Crimson Tide 2-8-1 ATS laying 7 to 10 on the road, 4-5-1 ATS last ten as road chalk vs the Conference you bet Nick Saban's troops at some risk.

NCAA Football Betting Odds: Week 3 Line Movements & Last-Minute News


I touched on the huge matchup between No. 2 Florida State and No. 10 Louisville on Monday, so I won't rehash that -- although the Seminoles got bad news this week when arguably their best defensive player, safety Derwin James, was ruled out 5-7 weeks following surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee -- in this space. I liked FSU -2.5 on Monday and still do at the current line of -1.5.

But something happened this week that could hugely benefit Florida State down the line. The conference decided to pull the ACC Championship Game from Charlotte this season because of that whole transgender bathroom law in North Carolina. Whether you agree with that law or not, it's a bold move for the ACC (the ACC men's basketball tournament is in Brooklyn the next two years, so nothing to worry about there) without any backup plan. Why I think the Seminoles could benefit from this if they win the Atlantic Division, which I believe they will, is that the ACC's first choice is to play the game in Orlando.

Obviously, any game in the state of Florida would benefit FSU in terms of fan support. If you watched the Seminoles' season opener against Ole Miss at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, the crowd was decidedly pro-FSU. If the game stayed in Charlotte and FSU was to play, say, North Carolina in the title game, obviously that would benefit the Heels. Or if Clemson represented the Atlantic Division, Tigers fans would be en masse in Charlotte against the Coastal winner (unless it was the Heels). It's not a done deal that the game will be in Orlando as Camping World Stadium is currently scheduled to host the Florida high school championship games that weekend. Those games could be moved to UCF's Bright House Networks Stadium perhaps. Tampa (which used to host the ACC title game) and Jacksonville are other options, but both would again help Florida State. It's most likely going to be in Orlando, though. The Noles are +140 favorites to win the ACC.

Here are some news, notes and any major line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order. Pardon the heavy SEC flavor. It's a spectacular weekend and the first ever where the top three teams in the AP poll play true road games vs. ranked teams. I think only Ohio State loses among those top three.

Mississippi State at No. 20 LSU (-14, 45): This has one of the lower totals on the board, and LSU opened at -12.5. Sportsbooks have an interesting prop up on LSU's Les Miles, asking if he will be the team's coach beyond Dec. 31, 2016. I assume that date was chosen because it's when the College Football Playoff semifinals are being played. "Yes" is -320 and "no" is +230. Miles will not be in Baton Rouge if he loses this game, I can promise you. He has made a quarterback change as well. Purdue transfer Danny Etling will make his first start as a Tiger. Brandon Harris started the first two games and was terrible. He was pulled early in last week's win over Jacksonville State, and it's not like Etling tore it up, going 6-for-14 for 100 yards with a TD and a pick. But Etling will be mostly handing off to Leonard Fournette, who was held out last week due to an ankle injury. He certainly could have played if the opponent posed any threat. LSU has won 15 of the last 16 meetings in this series but lost the last time they met in Tiger Stadium, 34-29, in 2014. MSU missed a 52-yard field goal at the end of regulation with a chance to win last year in Starkville.

North Texas at No. 23 Florida (-36, 50): This won't affect whether Florida wins, obviously, but be aware that the Gators' best offensive player, wide receiver Antonio Callaway, is being called highly questionable to doubtful with an injured quad. He leads the Gators with 13 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. I highly doubt he plays considering UF opens SEC play next week in a big one in the East Division against Tennessee. Also out for a few games is Gators guard Tyler Jordan, who will have eye surgery to repair damage stemming from a broken orbital bone.

No. 3 Georgia at Missouri (+6.5, 56): For whatever reason, this total has skyrocketed from an opening of 50. It's a matchup of first-year head coaches at their alma mater in Georgia's Kirby Smart and Mizzou's Barry Odom. The Dawgs clearly were looking past FCS school Nicholls State last week as UGA escaped the biggest upset in school history with a 26-24 win. Georgia turned it over three times, including an interception in the red zone that Nicholls returned 91 yards. The question is: Who starts at QB here? Senior Greyson Lambert got the call in Week 1 against North Carolina, but it was freshman Jacob Eason vs. Nicholls State. He was 11-for-20 for 204 yards and a TD but also that crucial pick. Lambert was just 2-for-3 for 2 yards. Most believe it will be Eason again. Missouri (1-1) comes off a thumping of Eastern Michigan, and three key injured players should be good to go here: tailback Alex Ross (ankle) and cornerback Aarion Penton (shoulder) were hurt vs. EMU but have been practicing as has tight end Sean Culkin (foot), who sat out last week. Georgia is 3-1 against Missouri since the Tigers joined the SEC. I promise you this game will be more interesting than last year's 9-6 Dawgs home win. It was Georgia's first victory without scoring a touchdown since a 12-3 victory over Kentucky in 1995.

No. 11 Texas at California (+7.5, 81): Can't say I could find the research to prove this, but I guarantee you that this is the highest total in a game ever involving Texas. You normally only see 80-plus in games involving Oregon, Texas Tech (which has a total of 80 on Saturday vs. Louisiana Tech) or Baylor. The total has risen nearly five points from its opening, but the spread has been steady. The Longhorns now carry the banner of the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU, the top three teams in the preseason Big 12 poll, all having lost already. I thought UT might have letdown game last week against UTEP off that huge win over Notre Dame, but Texas won 41-7. The Horns sat six starters in running back D'Onta Freeman, offensive lineman Connor Williams, Kent Perkins and Zach Shackelford as well as tight end Caleb Blueitt and safety Dylan Haines, but they will all play here. Horns freshman QB Shane Buechele has been great thus far, but let's see how he does in his first road test. It's the home opener for Cal (1-1), which comes off a close loss at a very good San Diego State team. Behind QB Davis Webb, a Texas Tech transfer, the Bears are No. 2 nationally in passing. Both these schools are averaging 45.5 points per game through two weeks.

NCAAF

Saturday’s best 13 games

South Carolina split pair of SEC road games to open season; they didn’t score in first half of either game, gave up 290 rushing yards LW in Starkville. Gamecocks are 3-7 in last 10 games as home favorite. East Carolina covered four of last five as a road dog. Last 3+ years, AAC teams are 8-6-2 vs spread when playing an SEC opponent. SEC home favorites are 5-5 as home favorites this year; AAC road dogs are 2-2.


Florida State beat Louisville 42-31/41-21 last two years, throwing ball for 778 yards. Louisville hung 62 on defense-less Syracuse LW (gained 414 rushing yards, 431 passing), now they get a Florida State team that is missing James, one of its best defenders. First road start for FSU’s frosh QB Francois. Cardinals are 1-1 as a home dog under Petrino (4-8 since ’09); FSU is 8-5 in its last 13 games as a road favorite.

Temple sacked Hackenberg 10 times LY in 27-10 (+6.5) upset win over Penn State (outgained PSU 317-183). Owls lost 28-13 to Army then beat a I-AA team LW; they’re 8-4 as road dogs under Rhule. Lions gave up 341 rushing yards in 42-39 loss at Pitt LW; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a home favorite. Last 2+ years, AAC teams are 4-7 vs spread when facing Big 14 teams. AAC teams are 4-2 as underdogs this year; Big 14 home favorites are 7-5.

Nebraska coach Riley was 3-8 vs Oregon when he coached rival Oregon State; Huskers scored 95 points in whacking couple of Mountain West also rans to start season. Oregon has another I-AA transfer QB who is making his road start for Ducks- they gained 632 yards vs Virginia LW. Last 4+ years, Pac-12 teams are 13-11-2 vs spread when facing Big 14 opponents, 8-3 if an underdog. Big 14 home favorites are 7-5 vs spread this season.

UCLA ran ball for 296 yards in narrow 24-23 win (-16.5) over BYU LY; Bruins lost their only road game, in OT at Texas A&M- they pulled away late from UNLV LW. BYU split pair of games vs Pac-12 schools, with games decided by total of 3 points. UCLA is 8-5 as road favorite under Mora. Cougars are 12-4 as underdogs the last five years, 2-0 at home. Pac-12 favorites are 4-5 vs spread this season.

Oklahoma State lost as a 20-point home favorite LW, giving up a TD on a Hail Mary/lateral as time expired. Pitt is coming off of its 42-39 win over Penn State, in renewal of regional rivalry. Last 10+ years, OSU is 30-16-1 as home favorite. Pitt is 4-1 as road dog under Narduzzi, 17-9-1 over last decade. Last five years, Big X teams are 8-6 vs spread when facing an ACC opponent. Big X home favorites are 2-5 vs spread so far this year.

Michigan State lost its last three games with Notre Dame by 4-17-18 points; dogs covered four of last five series games overall, and seven of last nine played here. Teams didn’t play last 2 years. Last decade, Spartans are 14-8 as a road underdog. ND covered five of its last six home games- they ran ball for 445 yards in splitting first two games. Big 14 teams are 11-8 vs spread, 2-3 as underdogs so far this season. Spartans had LW off after opening with I-AA foe.

Home side lost last four Texas A&M-Auburn games; Aggies won 41-38/63-21 in last two visits here. A&M is 2-6 vs spread in last 8 games as a road underdog; they’re 14-25-1 vs spread in their last 40 games overall. Auburn is 0-7 in its last seven games as a home favorite, 5-11 in its last 16 SEC games. Tigers bounced back from 19-13 loss to Clemson with 51-14 rout of Arkansas State LW- they ran ball for 462 yards. Aggies won opener in OT at home over UCLA before crushing a I-AA stiff LW.

Oklahoma is a home dog for first time since ’00 vs Nebraska, game the Sooners won. OU already lost at Houston; their next two tilts are at TCU/vs Texas in Dallas- tough schedule- they gave up 593 PY in two games. Ohio State is 7-6 as road favorite under Meyer; they ran ball for 627 yards in routing BG/Tulsa to open season. Last five years, Big X teams are 10-8 vs spread when facing a Big 14 squad. Big 14 teams are 9-5 vs spread as favorites, 2-0 on road.

Ole Miss beat Alabama 43-37/23-17 last two years; they’re 8-3 vs spread in last 11 series games, but Rebels blew 28-6 lead to FSU in opener, then allowed 233 rushing yards LW to I-AA Wofford, so red flags there. Bama covered its last four games as road favorite, but this is first road start for frosh QB Hurts. Crimson Tide won its first two games easily, outscored USC/Western Ky by 90-16 total. Rebels are 5-2 as a home underdog under Freeze.

LSU used Purdue transfer Etling at QB in LW’s win over a I-AA foe; Tigers are 15-1 in last 16 games with Mississippi State, but Bulldogs did win last visit here (with Prescott at QB). MSU is 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Death Valley. Bulldogs ran ball for 529 yards in first two games- they didn’t allow first half point in either game, but blew 17-0 lead in loss to USA. MSU is 6-2 as road underdogs the last three years. LSU is 8-3-1 in its last 12 games as a home favorite.

Stanford won six of last eight games with USC, winning last two 41-31/41-22; underdogs are 10-3 vs spread in last 13 series games. USC beat Utah St. LW after getting crushed by Alabama; they’ve lost couple players to off-field issues since. Trojans are 2-6 in last eight games as a road dog; Cardinal was outgained 335-272 in its opening win, over K-State- they didn’t play last week. Stanford is 9-5 vs spread in its last 14 games as a home favorite.

Cal (-6) won 45-44 at Texas LY, despite being outgained 650-548. Golden Bears gave up 582 rushing yards in splitting first two games; they lost wild 45-40 game at San Diego State LW. Cal is 3-10 as a home dog under Dykes. Longhorns scored 91 points in winning first two games; this is 1st road start for frosh QB Buechele. Texas is 3-1 as a road favorite under Strong. Last 5+ years, Big X teams are 12-7 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 opponent. Big X teams are 2-6 as favorites so far this year.